Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Case-Shiller House Price Index Increases in June

by Bill McBride on 8/25/2009 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for June this morning.

This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). This is the Seasonally Adjusted data - others report the NSA data. Note: I have more on the quarterly national index soon.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 32.6% from the peak, and up about 9% (annualized) in June.

The Composite 20 index is off 31.4% from the peak, and up in June.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 is off 15.1% over the last year.

The Composite 20 is off 15.4% over the last year.

This is still a very strong YoY decline.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

NOTE: updated 3rd graph. Two cities have price increases for 2009, and hopefully this graph shows the change better.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA NSA) in 15 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in June. In Las Vegas, house prices have declined 54.6% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Dallas are only off about 5.6% from the peak - and up in 2009. Prices have declined by double digits almost everywhere.

Let the debate begin - seasonal issues of mix (distressed sales vs. non-distressed sales), the impact of the first-time home buyer frenzy on prices, etc. - but this does show a price increase in June.

I'll compare house prices to the stress test scenarios soon.