Monday, June 15, 2009

Empire State Manufacturing "Conditions continued to deteriorate"

by Bill McBride on 6/15/2009 08:38:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in June, at a moderately faster pace than in May. The general business conditions index fell 5 points, to -9.4. The new orders index remained negative and near last month’s level, while the shipments index fell 6 points to -4.8.
...
In a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers were asked about their capital spending plans for 2009 relative to their actual spending for 2008, both overall and for a few broad categories of capital (see Supplemental Report tab). Similar questions had been asked in June 2008 and June 2007. In the current survey, 56 percent of respondents reported reductions in overall capital spending in 2009, while just 20 percent reported increases. These results contrast fairly markedly with those of the June 2008 survey, which showed nearly as many respondents reporting increases (32 percent) as decreases (36 percent).
Here is the general business conditions index. Note that the data only goes back to July 2001 (chart to Jan 2002). Any reading below zero is contraction, so this index shows manufacturing is contracting in June.

NY Fed General business Conditions