Friday, May 29, 2009

Philly Fed State Coincident Indexes

by Bill McBride on 5/29/2009 10:53:00 AM

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. All 50 states are showing declining three month activity.

This is the new definition of "Red states" and this is what a widespread recession looks like based on the Philly Fed states indexes.

On a one month basis, activity decreased in 45 states in April. Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for April.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for all 50 states for April 2009. In the past month, the indexes increased in three states, decreased in 45, and were unchanged in the other two, for a one-month diffusion index of -84. Over the past three months, the indexes decreased in all 50 states, for a three-month diffusion index of -100.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator.

Almost all states showed declining activity in April. Still a widespread recession ...

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