by Bill McBride on 5/18/2009 05:07:00 PM
Monday, May 18, 2009
The Federal Reserve reports that delinquency rates rose sharply in Q1 in all categories.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
This graph shows the delinquency rates at the commercial banks for residential real estate, commercial real estate and consumer credit cards.
Commercial real estate delinquencies (6.4%) are rising rapidly, and are at the highest rate since the early '90s (as delinquency rates declined following the S&L crisis).
Residential real estate (7.91%) and consumer credit card (6.5%) delinquencies are at the highest levels since the Fed started tracking the data (since Q1 '91).
Although there is credit deterioration everywhere, the rise in these three categories is especially significant. There was also a significant increase in C&I delinquencies (commerical & industrial).
Note: The Fed defines commercial as "construction and land development loans, loans secured by multifamily residences, and loans secured by nonfarm, nonresidential real estate", and many of the problems are probably in the C&D loans. These are the loans that will probably lead to the closure of many regional banks.
Also check out the charge-off rates. The charge-off rate for residential real estate increased from 1.58% to 1.8, and for consumer credit cards from 6.33% to 7.49%.
Just more evidence of severe credit problems at the commercial banks.