Thursday, February 26, 2009

Record Low New Home Sales in January

by Bill McBride on 2/26/2009 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309 thousand. This is the lowest sales rate the Census Bureau has ever recorded (starting in 1963).

New Home Sales Monthly Not Seasonally Adjusted Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red column for January 2009. This is the lowest sales for January since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963. (NSA, 23 thousand new homes were sold in January 2009).

As the graph indicates, sales in January 2009 are substantially worse than the previous years.

New Home Sales and Recessions The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales have fallen off a cliff.

Sales of new one-family houses in January 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 10.2 percent (±15.4%)* below the revised December rate of 344,000 and is 48.2 percent (±6.8%) below the January 2008 estimate of 597,000.
And one more long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Months of Supply and RecessionsThe months of supply is at an ALL TIME RECORD 13.3 months in January (this is seasonally adjusted)!
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 342,000. This represents a supply of 13.3 months at the current sales rate.
New Home Sales InventoryThe final graph shows new home inventory. For new homes, both sales and inventory are falling quickly - since starts have fallen off a cliff.

Note that new home inventory does not include many condos (especially high rise condos), and areas with significant condo construction will have much higher inventory levels.

This is a another extremely weak report. Record low sales. Record high months of supply. More Cliff Diving. I'll have more on new home sales later today ...

Last 10 Posts