Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Roubini: Bloomberg Interview from Zurich

by Bill McBride on 1/27/2009 02:24:00 PM

All this fiscal stimulus is necessary, cause the alternative is a depression.
Roubini, Jan 27, 2009

Note: Listening to the Roubini interview (see video below), I think he is forecasting less than 6 million in net job losses in the U.S. this year because of the stimulus plan. Here is a quick transcript:
"At this rate we will could lose another 6 million jobs in 2009 on top of the 2.5 [million] lost the last year. The Obama plan wants to create 2 to 3 million jobs. By the means, even if you implement it, the job losses are going to be smaller. We are not going to create on net, we are going to have job losses falling to 200 to 250 [thousand] losses per month as opposed to 500 thousand. That is the best we can expect for this year. And I think the unemployment rate will keep on increasing even next year because it is a lagging indicator. The unemployment rate is going to peak above 9% sometime in 2010. It is pretty bleak."
From Bloomberg: Roubini Sees ‘Nowhere to Hide’ From Global Slowdown
Global stock market declines are increasingly correlated and emerging economies will follow developed nations into a “severe recession,” according to New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini.

Roubini said economic growth in China will slow to less than 5 percent and the U.S. will lose 6 million jobs. The American economy will expand 1 percent at most in 2010 as private spending falls and unemployment climbs to at least 9 percent, he added.
...
Roubini said the U.S. government should nationalize the biggest banks because losses will exceed assets, threatening to push them into bankruptcy. The banks could be privatized again in two or three years, Roubini said. The professor reiterated his prediction that U.S. financial losses will more than triple to $3.6 trillion and that global equities will fall 20 percent this year from current levels.