Sunday, October 19, 2008

UK: Negative Equity to Reach 2 Million

by Bill McBride on 10/19/2008 12:33:00 AM

From The Times: Negative equity ‘to reach 2 million’

Collapsing house prices are plunging 60,000 homeowners a month into negative equity, which means the country is on course for a worse crisis than the 1990s crash.

At current trends, 2m households will enter negative equity by 2010, outstripping the 1.8m affected at the bottom of the last housing slump.
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Economists believe house prices will fall by up to 35% from their peak by 2010. This compares with a drop of only 20% in the early 1990s.
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Capital Economics, the City consultancy, expects up to 2m properties will be in negative equity by 2010 — more than in the recession of the early 1990s.
The population of the UK is about 20% of the U.S., so using a ratio of population, this would compare to about 10 million homeowners in the U.S. with negative equity. Moody's estimates there are already 12 million homeowners in the U.S. with negative equity in the U.S. - so the problem appears to be worse in the U.S. than in the U.K.