by Bill McBride on 10/28/2008 02:09:00 PM
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Here is a look at the real (inflation adjusted) Case-Shiller Composite 10 and 20 city indices. Nominal prices are adjusted using CPI less shelter, and Jan 2000 is set to 100.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
In real terms, prices have fallen close to 30% from the peak, and have fallen by about 2/3 of the way back to January 2000 real prices.
Of course there is nothing magical about 2000 prices, and prices could fall more or less than to 100 on the graph. I don't have much to add, but I think real prices are a better gauge than nominal prices as to how far prices will probably fall. I expect these real indices to decline for some time.