Thursday, October 23, 2008

Philly Fed September State Coincident Index

by Bill McBride on 10/23/2008 02:20:00 PM

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for September.

The indexes increased in 15 states for the month, decreased in 28, and were unchanged in the remaining seven (a one-month diffusion index of -26).
Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Most states are in recession, although a portion of the central U.S. is still growing (from Texas up to Montana).

This is what a recession looks like based on the Philly Fed states indexes.

Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThis is a graph of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity.

Note: the Philly Fed calls some states unchanged with minor changes.

Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since late last year based on this indicator.