Monday, October 20, 2008

Credit Crisis Indicators: More Progress

by Bill McBride on 10/20/2008 12:38:00 PM

  • The yield on 3 month treasuries: 0.93% up from up from 0.72% (BETTER)

  • The TED spread: 3.04 down from 3.59 yesterday (BETTER)

  • The two year swap spread from Bloomberg: 111.5 down from 122.2 (BETTER)

  • Activity in the Treasury's Supplementary Financing Program (SFP). This is the Treasury program to raise cash for the Fed's liquidity initiatives. If this program slows down borrowing, I think that would be a good sign.

    Here is a list of SFP sales. Another $40 billion announced today/ No Progress.

  • The A2P2 spread is 4.36 for Friday from 4.49 for Thursday. slightly better.

  • Industry contacts. I'm tracking some financing deals there are being held up right now. If these deals complete that would be a good sign (I'll post something when this happens). No improvement yet.

    I'll add a couple more indicators, but this is progress.

    Note: I'm returning from Zion and Bryce today. I'll be home tonight. Sorry for not responding to all the emails.