Wednesday, August 13, 2008

U.S. Miles Driven Declines 4.7% from June 2007

by Bill McBride on 8/13/2008 01:04:00 PM

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More demand destruction for oil ...

From the DOT: American Driving Reaches Eighth Month of Steady Decline

New data released today by the U.S. Department of Transportation show that, since last November, Americans have driven 53.2 billion miles less than they did over the same period a year earlier – topping the 1970s’ total decline of 49.3 billion miles.
...
Americans drove 4.7 percent less, or 12.2 billion miles fewer, in June 2008 than June 2007. The decline is most evident in rural travel, which has fallen by 4 percent – compared to the 1.2 percent decline in urban miles traveled – since the trend began last November.
Year-over-year change in Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the YoY change in the rolling 12 month total miles driven. The rolling 12 months total is off 1.7% compared to a year ago, and with the June 2008 vs June 2007 change off 4.7%, this will probably fall significantly more.

The decline in miles driven is similar to the two oil crisis of the '70s.

Of course oil prices are falling (up a little today), and this will lead to lower gasoline prices and probably a few more miles driven.