by Bill McBride on 8/22/2008 08:27:00 PM
Friday, August 22, 2008
The Federal Reserve reports that delinquency rates rose in Q2 in all categories. (hat tip Rick)
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
This graph shows the delinquency rates at the commercial banks for three key categories: residential real estate, commercial real estate, and consumer credit cards.
Credit card delinquency rates are at 4.9%, about the same level as the peak of the '01 recession. Credit card delinquencies peaked at 5.45% during the '91 recession.
Commercial real estate delinquencies are rising rapidly, and are at the highest rate since Q1 '95 (as delinquency rates declined following the S&L crisis).
Residential real estate delinquencies are at the highest level since the Fed started tracking the data (since Q1 '91).
Although there is credit deterioration everywhere, the rise in CRE delinquencies is especially significant. The Fed defines commercial as "construction and land development loans, loans secured by multifamily residences, and loans secured by nonfarm, nonresidential real estate", and many of the problems are probably in the C&D loans.
My guess is commercial real estate delinquencies will be higher than residential in Q3, even though residential delinquencies are still increasing rapidly.