Tuesday, May 27, 2008

New Home Sales: No Spring in 2008

by Bill McBride on 5/27/2008 03:59:00 PM

There was no spring this year.

New Home Sales NSA No Spring Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) new home sales for the last 45 years.

Usually sales increase in the spring - but not this year. The pervious worst spring on record was 1982 - in the midst of a severe recession, with 30 year fixed mortgage rates at 17%, and close to double digit unemployment.

In 1982, sales picked up late in the year as interest rates declined sharply (30 year fixed rates fell from 17% to about 13% at the end of the year).

New Home Sales Monthly Not Seasonally AdjustedThe second graph shows monthly new home sales NSA for the last few years (repeated from this morning).

The Red columns are for 2008. This is the lowest sales for April since the recession of '91.

Once again, the 2008 spring selling season has never really started.