Thursday, April 24, 2008

More on March New Home Sales

by Bill McBride on 4/24/2008 10:24:00 AM

For more graphs, see March New Home Sales, Lowest since 1991.

New Home Sales and Recessions Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales were falling prior to every recession, with the exception of the business investment led recession of 2001.

It appears the U.S. economy is now in recession - possibly starting in December - as shown on graph.

New home sales in March were the lowest since 1991. This is what we call Cliff Diving!

New Home Sales Monthly Not Seasonally Adjusted
The second graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Notice the Red columns for 2008. This is the lowest sales for March since the recession of '91.

As the graph indicates, the spring selling season has never really started.

And one more long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Months of Supply and Recessions
"Months of supply" is at 11 months; the highest level since 1981. Note that this doesn't include cancellations, but that was true for the earlier periods too.

The all time high for Months of Supply was 11.6 months in April 1980.

Once again, the current recession is "probable" and hasn't been declared by NBER.