Thursday, April 24, 2008

March New Home Sales, Lowest since 1991

by Bill McBride on 4/24/2008 10:01:00 AM

According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526 thousand. Sales for February were revised down to 575 thousand.

New Home Sales Click on Graph for larger image.

Sales of new one-family houses in March 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 ... This is 8.5 percent below the revised February rate of 575,000 and is 36.6 percent below the March 2007 estimate of 830,000.

New Home Sales Inventory

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 468,000.

Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations - and cancellations are near record levels. Actual New Home inventories are probably much higher than reported - my estimate is about 100K higher.

Still, the 468,000 units of inventory is below the levels of the last year, and it appears that even including cancellations, inventory is now falling.

New Home Sales Months of Inventory
This represents a supply of 11.0 months at the current sales rate.

This is reverse cliff diving!

This is another very weak report for New Home sales, and I'll have some analysis later today.