by Bill McBride on 4/22/2008 12:41:00 PM
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Update: press release added at bottom.
From DataQuick: The number of mortgage default notices (NODs) filed against California homeowners in Q1 2008 increased by 39% over Q4 2007, to the highest level on record.
This graph shows the annual NODs filed in California since 1992. For Q1 2008, a record 113,676 NODs were filed in California, compared to 254,824 total NODs in 2007. This is more than double the 46,670 NODs filed in Q1 2007.
Click on graph for larger image.
For 2008, the number of NODs was estimated at 4 times the Q1 rate. Based on recent experience - with NODs increasing every quarter for the last 3 years - this is probably conservative.
As bad as 2007 was, 2008 will be much much worse.
Not all NODs go to foreclosure, but the percentage has been increasing (well over 50% now).
From DataQuick: Another Jump in California Foreclosure Activity
Lending institutions sent homeowners 113,676 default notices during the January-to-March period. That was up by 39.4 percent from 81,550 the previous quarter, and up 143.1 percent from 46,760 for first-quarter 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.Wow, now 2/3 of NODs are going to foreclosure!
Last quarter's number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1992.
"The main factor behind this foreclosure surge remains the decline in home values. Additionally, a lot of the 'loans-gone-wild' activity happened in late 2005 and 2006 and that's working its way through the system. The big 'if' right now is whether or not the economy is in recession. If it is, the foreclosure problem could spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick's president.
Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between August 2005 and October 2006. The median age was 23 months, up from 16 months a year earlier.
Last quarter's default numbers were a record in almost all of the state's 58 counties. The notable exception being Los Angeles County, which was particularly hard hit by the recession of the early 1990s. During last quarter, the county's 20,339 defaults represented 94.8 percent of its peak quarter back in Q1 of 1996, which saw 21,444 defaults.
Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 32 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes 'work-outs' difficult.