by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2007 08:30:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports on housing Permits, Starts and Completions.

Seasonally adjusted permits fell; permits for single family units fell sharply:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,152,000. This is 1.5 percent below the revised October rate of 1,170,000 and is 24.6 percent below the revised November 2006 estimate of 1,527,000.

Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 764,000; this is 5.6 percent below the October figure of 809,000.

Starts fell sharply, with starts for single family units at the lowest level since April 1991:

Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,187,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,232,000, and is 24.2 percent below the revised November 2006 rate of 1,565,000.

Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 829,000; this is 5.4 percent below the October figure of 876,000.

And Completions declined sharply:

Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,344,000. This is 4.1 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,402,000 and is 28.7 percent below the revised November 2006 rate of 1,885,000.

Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 1,088,000; this is 4.1 percent below the October figure of 1,135,000.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph of starts and completions. Completions follow starts by about 6 to 7 months.

Look at what is about to happen to completions: Completions were at a 1,344 million rate in November, but are about to follow starts to below the 1.2 million level. I'd expect completions to fall rapidly over the next few months, impacting residential construction employment.

Even with single family starts at the lowest level since the '91 recession, when you look at inventories and new home sales, the builders are still starting too many homes. I expect starts to continue to decline over the next several months.