Wednesday, September 05, 2007

ADP Employment Report

by Bill McBride on 9/05/2007 07:02:00 PM

NOTE: This graph is from ADP and shows total private employment based on ADP and BLS reports (in thousands). Both reports are currently showing around 115.5 million employed (SA). Ignore the "change" label on the side of the ADP graph.

The following graphs compares the ADP vs. the BLS reports.

ADP vs. BLS Private Employment Click on graph for larger image.

ADP August Employment Report

Nonfarm private employment grew 38,000 from July to August of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment ReportTM.

This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests that a deceleration of employment may be underway. The August increase of 38,000 was the smallest since June of 2003 and the second consecutive weak monthly reading.
Last month ADP wasn't close to the BLS data for private sector employment. Still, this is the second consecutive month with the ADP report showing weak employment gains for the private sector. Last month the ADP report showed private sector employment increased by 48,000; the BLS report showed the private sector increased 120,000.

Perhaps the BLS is missing the turning point.