Friday, July 06, 2007

June Employment Report

by Bill McBride on 7/06/2007 08:37:00 AM

The BLS reports: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 132,000 in June, after a upward revised 190,000 gain in May. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.5% in June.

Cumulative Job GrowthClick on graph for larger image.

Here is the cumulative nonfarm job growth for Bush's 2nd term. The gray area represents the expected job growth (from 6 million to 10 million jobs over the four year term). Job growth has been solid for the last 2 1/2 years and is near the top of the expected range.

The following two graphs are the areas I've been watching closely: residential construction and retail employment.

Construction Employment
Residential construction employment was flat in June, and including downward revisions to previous months, is down 135.3 thousand, or about 4.0%, from the peak in March 2006.

Note the scale doesn't start from zero: this is to better show the change in employment.

Retail Employment
Retail employment lost 24,200 jobs in June. As the graph shows, retail employment has been fairly flat in recent months. YoY retail employment is slightly positive.

The expected reported job losses in residential construction employment still haven't happened, and any spillover to retail isn't apparent yet. With housing starts off over 30%, it's a puzzle why residential construction employment is only off about 4%.