Monday, April 23, 2007

NAHB's Chief Economist Releases Housing Forecast

by Bill McBride on 4/23/2007 02:11:00 PM

From Realty Times: NAHB's Chief Economist Releases Housing Forecast. See the link for excerpts from Seiders' forecast.

The overall economic forecast is still pretty positive on GDP growth with "major uncertainties" and significant downside risk. Seiders says the probability of recession later this year has risen, and he puts the odds around 25%.

The NAHB housing forecast is grim. Rising inventories, especially a record number of vacant housing units, combined with falling demand, because of the subprime and Alt-A debacle, "has downside implications for house prices and has prompted downward revisions to NAHB's forecasts of home sales and housing production for the balance of 2007-2008."

Nothing new here except that this is the forecast from the National Association of Home Builders!