Friday, December 29, 2006

ECRI: "Recession is no Longer a Serious Concern"

by Bill McBride on 12/29/2006 11:17:00 AM

From Reuters: Gauge of U.S. economy falls in latest week

The Economic Cycle Research Institute ... said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 138.5 in the week ending Dec. 22 from 139.7 in the prior week, due to higher interest rates and more jobless claims.

However, annualized growth in the week ended Dec. 22 rose to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent in the prior period, a reading not reached since last February.

"Given the steady improvement in the WLI, recession is no longer a serious concern," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
And from Bloomberg: On consumer confidence
"This really just points to the fact that the economy is experiencing a soft landing and no recession," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, in an interview. "It speaks volumes about the resiliency of the consumer."
Other than a few economists, the overwhelming consensus view is for a soft landing and GDP growth of 2.5% to 3.0% in 2007.