Thursday, November 02, 2006

Roubini: 90% Chance of Recession

by Bill McBride on 11/02/2006 07:01:00 PM

A few excerpts from Bloomberg: U.S. Recession Warnings Grow Louder; Some Say It's Just Noise.

Professor Roubini had put the odds of a recession at 70%, now he is even more pessimistic:

"We're already at the tipping point," said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC in New York and a professor of economics at New York University. "The weakness is spilling over from housing to the auto sector to manufacturing to retail. We're at a 90 percent probability of a recession."
And a few other bearish views:
David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch & Co.'s New York-based chief North American economist yesterday said the economy is ``on a knife's edge,'' while hedge fund manager Jim Rogers told a news conference in Seoul today that the U.S. ``is in recession right now.''
...
Martin Baily, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Bill Clinton, puts the possibility of a recession at ``about a third'' and calls that ``significant.''
And the bullish view:
``We should view this slowdown as very welcome,'' said [economist Steve] Wieting, director of economic and market analysis at Citigroup in New York. ``Recessions are built on complete excess. We had that in housing, but we didn't have that in the broader economy.''
...
Lehman's [John] Shin says recession chances are nowhere near [90%] ``The two main fundamentals in the economy, consumer spending and business spending, have held up fairly well,''