by CalculatedRisk on 11/17/2006 06:19:00 PM

RealtyTrac reports: Foreclosures Surpass 1 Million Mark in October

“So far this year more than 1 million properties have entered some stage of foreclosure nationwide, up 27 percent from the same time last year. ... Our data from the last three months shows that foreclosures are definitely trending upward...”
James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.

Check the report for your state.

Here is a table from an earlier post on default notices in California (source: DataQuick):

California Default Notices, Source: DataQuick
Year	Default Notices
1992	100,573
1993	121,416
1994	122,530
1995	135,713
1996	162,597
1997	141,180
1998	122,775
1999	101,053
2000	88,666
2001	81,003
2002	78,784
2003	66,127
2004	52,674
2005	54,476
2006 (through Q3)	66,185

There were 26,705 default notices sent to California homeowners in Q3. At that pace, the number of default notices sent in 2006 would be the highest since 1999 (66,185 through Q3 + 26,705 = 92,890).

That projection now seems optimistic. RealtyTrac shows 13,601 default notices sent to California homeowners in October alone (half of my Q4 estimate in one month).

The rapid increase in foreclosure activity, combined with falling home prices and a weakening California economy, lead me to believe there will be a record number of default notices sent to California homeowners in 2007, surpassing the previous record of 162,597 in 1996.

Note that 1996 was the last year of the previous housing bust in California. The bust lasted over 6 years. Next year will only be the second year of the current bust.