Wednesday, November 29, 2006

October New Home Sales: 1.004 Million SAAR

by Bill McBride on 11/29/2006 10:14:00 AM

According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.004 million. Sales for September were revised down to 1.037 million, from 1.075 million. Numbers for July and August were also revised down.


Click on Graph for larger image.
Sales of new one-family houses in October 2006 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,004,000 ... This is 3.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,037,000, and is 25.4 percent below the October 2005 estimate of 1,346,000.


The Not Seasonally Adjusted monthly rate was 77,000 New Homes sold. There were 105,000 New Homes sold in October 2005.

On a year over year NSA basis, October 2006 sales were 26.7% lower than October 2005. Also, October '06 sales were below October 2004 (101,000) and October 2003 (88,000) sales. This is the lowest October since 2002 when 77,000 new homes were also sold.


The median and average sales prices were up sharply. Caution should be used when analyzing monthly price changes since prices are heavily revised.

The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2006 was $248,500; the average sales price was $309,700.


The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 558,000. This represents a supply of 7.0 months at the current sales rate.

The 558,000 units of inventory is about the same as the last six months. Inventory numbers from the Census Bureau do not include cancellations - and cancellations are at record levels. Actual New Home inventories are much higher - some estimate about 20% higher.

On a months of supply basis, inventory is above the level of recent years.

This another very weak report, especially considering the strong downward revisions for the previous months.

More later today on New Home Sales.