by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2025 10:04:00 AM

Here is another update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

On October 31, 2025, LBR was at $539.50 per 1,000 board feet, down 3% from a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.

The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  

Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak

• Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key (missing) report this week is the October employment report.

Other key indicators include October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, November 3rd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 15.5million SAAR, down from 16.4 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Tuesday, November 4th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

----- Wednesday, November 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 25,000 jobs added, up from 32,000 lost in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a increase to 51.0 from 50.0.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Thursday, November 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

----- Friday, November 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2025 01:58:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [October 31st estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

we estimate that GDP has grown about 2.2% annualized so far this year and 3.3% in Q3. [October 15th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on October 27, unchanged from October 16 after rounding. After last Thursday’s existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast for third-quarter annualized real residential investment growth increased from -4.6 percent to -4.4 percent.[October 27th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2025 10:10:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased 0.04% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in September. This is the sixth consecutive with a small MoM SA decline.

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.0% in September, down from up 1.3% YoY in August. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in September is a new cycle low. ...

As of September, 19 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in New Mexico (-3.8%), Arizona (-3.6%), Florida (-2.8%), and Texas (-2.6%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 182 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 6 of the 9 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

Florida has the largest number of CBSAs on the list and Texas has the 2nd most.

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2025 08:11:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Oct. 25

• AActive inventory climbed 14.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 14.6% year-over-year, marking the 103th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 26th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer, and homeowners aren’t eager to sell.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—up 5.9% year over year

New listings were up 5.9% last week compared with the same period a year ago, extending the streak of accelerating growth to three weeks.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price remained flat compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, the price per square foot fell 0.8% year over year, dropping for the eighth consecutive week. The price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 07:20:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September.

• At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 42.0, up from 40.6 in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 02:25:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 October

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 October. ...

19-25 October 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 66.6% (-3.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$166.36 (-1.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$110.78 (-5.3%)

Among the Top 25 Markets, Tampa reported the steepest occupancy drop (-24.2% to 63.7%), due to the elevated displacement demand period that followed Hurricane Milton in 2024.

New Orleans posted the largest decreases in ADR (-35.3% to US$195.39) and RevPAR (-41.9% to US$132.94). The market’s performance was affected by a comparison against Taylor Swift’s 2024 Eras Tour dates.

Overall, 21 of the Top 25 Markets saw an occupancy decline.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 11:47:00 AM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: September 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

Driven largely by slower midweek volumes, the destination saw a ‐8.8% YoY decrease in visitation, hosting approximately 3.1M visitors.

Las Vegas convention attendance reached roughly 428k in September, down ‐18.7% YoY, reflecting in part the absence of the quadrennial MINExpo (45k attendees) that was held last September, and the calendar shift for Oracle CloudWorld (30k attendees) which took place in October this year vs. September last year.

Hotel occupancy of 78.7% (down ‐5.2 pts) and ADR of $191 (‐2.9% YoY) translated to monthly RevPAR of $150 (‐9.0% YoY).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 8.8% compared to last September.  Visitor traffic was down 11.1% compared to September 2019.

Year-to-date (YTD) visitor traffic is down 9.3% compared to the same period in 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was down 18.7% compared to September 2024 and down 6.7% compared to September 2019.  

YTD convention traffic is down 12.3% compared to 2019.

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 08:52:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the August Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.6% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.0% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $446,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.8% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.1% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in August. The real National index has decreased for 8 consecutive months.

It has now been 39 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!