by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 04:01:00 PM
Thursday, May 18, 2023
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 2.0% Year-over-year
U.S. weekly hotel performance produced mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to STR‘s latest data through 13 May.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
U.S. weekly hotel performance produced mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to STR‘s latest data through 13 May.
• Occupancy: 65.1% (-2.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.90 (+3.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$100.81 (+1.3%)
Worsened comparisons than the week prior were expected and normal given seasonal slowing and the negative side of the Mother’s Day calendar shift.
emphasis added
The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 23% YoY; New Listings Down 25% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 02:09:00 PM
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 13, 2023
• Active inventory was up at a slower pace, with for-sale homes up just 23% above one year ago. The number of homes for sale continues to grow, but at a slower pace compared to one year ago.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.
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• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 25% from one year ago. The number of newly listed homes has been lower than the same time the previous year for the past 45 weeks.
Inventory is still up year-over-year - from record lows - however, the YoY increase has slowed sharply recently.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in April; Median Prices Declined 1.7% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 10:47:00 AM
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in April; Median Prices Declined 1.7% YoY
Excerpt:
The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023.There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ Please subscribe!
Sales declined 23.2% year-over-year compared to April 2022. This was the twentieth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in April
by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 10:13:00 AM
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Faded 3.4% in April
Existing-home sales decreased in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year sales declines.Click on graph for larger image.
Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slid 3.4% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million in April. Year-over-year, sales slumped 23.2% (down from 5.57 million in April 2022).
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Total housing inventory registered at the end of April was 1.04 million units, up 7.2% from March and 1.0% from one year ago (1.03 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.6 months in March and 2.2 months in April 2022.
emphasis added
This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.
Sales in April (4.28 million SAAR) were down 3.4% from the previous month and were 23.2% below the April 2022 sales rate.
According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.04 million in April from 0.97 million in March.
The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Inventory was up 1.0% year-over-year (blue) in April compared to April 2022.
Months of supply (red) increased to 2.9 months in April from 2.6 months in March.
This was slightly below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 242,000
by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 08:33:00 AM
The DOL reported:
In the week ending May 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 244,250, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 245,250.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 244,250.
The previous week was unrevised.
Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.
Wednesday, May 17, 2023
Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg
by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 08:52:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 253 thousand initial claims, down from 264 thousand last week.
• Aslo at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of -21.1, up from -31.3.
• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.30 million SAAR, down from 4.44 million.
4th Look at Local Housing Markets in April
by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 06:01:00 PM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in April
A brief excerpt:
Yesterday, housing economist Tom Lawler noted:There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.33 million in April, down 2.5% from March’s preliminary pace and down 22.3% from last April’s seasonally adjusted pace.The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release April existing home sales on Thursday, May 18, 2023, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 4.30 million SAAR.
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In April, sales in these markets were down 24.7%. In March, these same markets were down 19.4% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
This is a larger YoY decline NSA in April than in March for these markets, however there was one less selling day in April this year. This data suggests the April existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, and the 20th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.
Several more local markets to come next week!
April Housing Starts: Near Record Multi-Family Under Construction
by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 09:35:00 AM
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: April Housing Starts: Near Record Multi-Family Under Construction
Excerpt:
The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).There is much more in the post. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/
Red is single family units. Currently there are 698 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This was down in April compared to March, and 133 thousand below the recent peak in May 2022. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts declined sharply. The number of single-family homes under construction will decline further in coming months.
Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 977 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since September 1973! This is close to the all-time record of 994 thousand in 1973 (being built for the baby-boom generation). For multi-family, construction delays are a significant factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.
Combined, there are 1.675 million units under construction, just 35 thousand below the all-time record of 1.710 million set in October 2022.
Housing Starts at 1.401 million Annual Rate in April
by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 08:38:00 AM
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:Click on graph for larger image.
Privately‐owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,401,000. This is 2.2 percent above the revised March estimate of 1,371,000, but is 22.3 percent below the April 2022 rate of 1,803,000. Single‐family housing starts in April were at a rate of 846,000; this is 1.6 percent above the revised March figure of 833,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 542,000.
Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,416,000. This is 1.5 percent below the revised March rate of 1,437,000 and is 21.1 percent below the April 2022 rate of 1,795,000. Single‐family authorizations in April were at a rate of 855,000; this is 3.1 percent above the revised March figure of 829,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 502,000 in April.
emphasis added
The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.
Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in April compared to March. Multi-family starts were down 12.2% year-over-year in April.
Single-family starts (red) increased in April and were down 27.9% year-over-year.
The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.
This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse in single-family starts.
Total housing starts in April were slightly above expectations, however, starts in February and March were revised down, combined.
I'll have more later …
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 07:00:00 AM
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 12, 2023.Click on graph for larger image.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage rates increased last week even as Treasury yields were essentially flat, with the spread between the two rates widening to 310 basis points. Mortgage application activity slowed, as most mortgage rates in the survey increased, with the 30-year fixed rate jumping nine basis points to its highest level in two months at 6.57 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications decreased 5 percent to its slowest pace in a month, as buyers remain wary of this rate volatility, but also as for-sale inventory in many parts of the country remains scarce.
Added Kan, “Refinance applications accounted for 27 percent of all applications and dropped almost 8 percent last week. Most borrowers have lower rates on their mortgages, and those who are in the market are extremely rate sensitive.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.57 percent from 6.48 percent, with points remaining at 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.
According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 26% year-over-year unadjusted.