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Thursday, May 18, 2023

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 2.0% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 04:01:00 PM

U.S. weekly hotel performance produced mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to STR‘s latest data through 13 May.

U.S. weekly hotel performance produced mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to STR‘s latest data through 13 May.

Occupancy: 65.1% (-2.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.90 (+3.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$100.81 (+1.3%)

Worsened comparisons than the week prior were expected and normal given seasonal slowing and the negative side of the Mother’s Day calendar shift.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2020 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will move mostly sideways until the summer travel season.

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 23% YoY; New Listings Down 25% YoY

by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 02:09:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 13, 2023

Active inventory was up at a slower pace, with for-sale homes up just 23% above one year ago. The number of homes for sale continues to grow, but at a slower pace compared to one year ago.
...
New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 25% from one year ago. The number of newly listed homes has been lower than the same time the previous year for the past 45 weeks.
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory is still up year-over-year - from record lows - however, the YoY increase has slowed sharply recently.  

This was the smallest YoY increase since June 2022.

The recent trend suggests active inventory could be down YoY in June or July!

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in April; Median Prices Declined 1.7% YoY

by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 10:47:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in April; Median Prices Declined 1.7% YoY

Excerpt:

The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023.

Existing Home Sales Year-over-yearSales declined 23.2% year-over-year compared to April 2022. This was the twentieth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.
There is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ Please subscribe!

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.28 million SAAR in April

by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 10:13:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Faded 3.4% in April

Existing-home sales decreased in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year sales declines.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slid 3.4% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million in April. Year-over-year, sales slumped 23.2% (down from 5.57 million in April 2022).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of April was 1.04 million units, up 7.2% from March and 1.0% from one year ago (1.03 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.6 months in March and 2.2 months in April 2022.
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in April (4.28 million SAAR) were down 3.4% from the previous month and were 23.2% below the April 2022 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home Inventory According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.04 million in April from 0.97 million in March.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was up 1.0% year-over-year (blue) in April compared to April 2022.

Months of supply (red) increased to 2.9 months in April from 2.6 months in March.

This was slightly below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later. 

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 242,000

by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2023 08:33:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 264,000. The 4-week moving average was 244,250, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 245,250.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 244,250.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 08:52:00 PM

Mortgage RatesNote: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 253 thousand initial claims, down from 264 thousand last week.

• Aslo at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of -21.1, up from -31.3.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.30 million SAAR, down from 4.44 million.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in April

by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 06:01:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in April

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, housing economist Tom Lawler noted:
Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.33 million in April, down 2.5% from March’s preliminary pace and down 22.3% from last April’s seasonally adjusted pace.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release April existing home sales on Thursday, May 18, 2023, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 4.30 million SAAR.
...
Closed Sales April 2023In April, sales in these markets were down 24.7%. In March, these same markets were down 19.4% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a larger YoY decline NSA in April than in March for these markets, however there was one less selling day in April this year. This data suggests the April existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, and the 20th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

Several more local markets to come next week!
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

April Housing Starts: Near Record Multi-Family Under Construction

by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 09:35:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: April Housing Starts: Near Record Multi-Family Under Construction

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

Red is single family units. Currently there are 698 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This was down in April compared to March, and 133 thousand below the recent peak in May 2022. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts declined sharply. The number of single-family homes under construction will decline further in coming months.

Housing Units Under ConstructionBlue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 977 thousand multi-family units under construction.  This is the highest level since September 1973! This is close to the all-time record of 994 thousand in 1973 (being built for the baby-boom generation). For multi-family, construction delays are a significant factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.

Combined, there are 1.675 million units under construction, just 35 thousand below the all-time record of 1.710 million set in October 2022.
There is much more in the post.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Housing Starts at 1.401 million Annual Rate in April

by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 08:38:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately‐owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,401,000. This is 2.2 percent above the revised March estimate of 1,371,000, but is 22.3 percent below the April 2022 rate of 1,803,000. Single‐family housing starts in April were at a rate of 846,000; this is 1.6 percent above the revised March figure of 833,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 542,000.

Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,416,000. This is 1.5 percent below the revised March rate of 1,437,000 and is 21.1 percent below the April 2022 rate of 1,795,000. Single‐family authorizations in April were at a rate of 855,000; this is 3.1 percent above the revised March figure of 829,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 502,000 in April.
emphasis added
Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in April compared to March.   Multi-family starts were down 12.2% year-over-year in April. 

Single-family starts (red) increased in April and were down 27.9% year-over-year.

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsThe second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in April were slightly above expectations, however, starts in February and March were revised down, combined.

I'll have more later …

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2023 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 12, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.8 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased last week even as Treasury yields were essentially flat, with the spread between the two rates widening to 310 basis points. Mortgage application activity slowed, as most mortgage rates in the survey increased, with the 30-year fixed rate jumping nine basis points to its highest level in two months at 6.57 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications decreased 5 percent to its slowest pace in a month, as buyers remain wary of this rate volatility, but also as for-sale inventory in many parts of the country remains scarce.

Added Kan, “Refinance applications accounted for 27 percent of all applications and dropped almost 8 percent last week. Most borrowers have lower rates on their mortgages, and those who are in the market are extremely rate sensitive.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.57 percent from 6.48 percent, with points remaining at 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Purchase IndexClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 26% year-over-year unadjusted.  

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

Mortgage Refinance Index
The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and has mostly flat lined at a low level since then.