by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2022 09:03:00 AM
Monday, December 05, 2022
Housing December 5th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 2.6% Week-over-week
Click on graph for larger image.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4, 2022, for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 20, 2022, for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ✅
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 34.1%).
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2022 08:27:00 AM
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided.
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
This data is as of December 4th.
Click on graph for larger image.
This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.
The 7-day average is 6.9% below the same week in 2019 (93.1% of 2019). (Dashed line)
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $115 million last week, down about 57% from the median for the week.
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).
This data is through Nov 26th. The occupancy rate was down 0.5% compared to the same week in 2019.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.
As of November 25th, gasoline supplied was down 9.6% compared to the same week in 2019.
Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.
Sunday, December 04, 2022
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2022 10:53:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 4, 2022
Monday:
• AT 10:00 AM ET, the ISM Services Index for November.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 4 and DOW futures are down 16 (fair value).
Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $80.89 per barrel and Brent at $86.51 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $66, and Brent was at $71 - so WTI oil prices are up 23% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.36 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.34 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.02 per gallon year-over-year.
Heavy Truck Sales Up 11% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2022 11:38:00 AM
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the November 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).
Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.
Click on graph for larger image.
Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."
Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020.
Saturday, December 03, 2022
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak
by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2022 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak
• Rents Falling Faster than "Seasonality Alone"
• FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $726,200
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decline" to 10.6% year-over-year increase in September
• Join the CalculatedRisk subscriber chat
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
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Schedule for Week of December 4, 2022
by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2022 08:11:00 AM
The key economic report this week is the October trade deficit.
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for November.
8:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for October.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is the trade deficit to be $79.1 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $73.3 billion in September.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 230 thousand initial claims, up from 225 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.
12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).
Friday, December 02, 2022
COVID Dec 2, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2022 08:46:00 PM
NOTE: This was a holiday week, and cases and deaths reporting always declines during holiday weeks.
On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths). Data has switched to weekly.
COVID Metrics | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
New Cases per Week2 | 303,101 | 306,856 | ≤35,0001 | |
Hospitalized2🚩 | 25,603 | 22,011 | ≤3,0001 | |
Deaths per Week2 | 1,780 | 2,634 | ≤3501 | |
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. |
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 0.5% Compared to Same Week in 2019
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2022 03:09:00 PM
Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, U.S. hotel performance came in lower than the previous week and showed mixed comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Nov. 26.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Nov. 20-26, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*
• Occupancy: 50.4% (-0.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$135.49 (+20.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$68.27 (+19.9%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 17%
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2022 01:44:00 PM
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 26, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.
• Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 53% above one year ago. Inventory accelerated again, notching a seventh week in a row with yearly trend growth roughly at or above 2% higher than the previous week.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.
...
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 17% from one year ago. This marks the twenty-first consecutive week of year-over-year declines in homeowners listing their home for sale.
Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July.
Comments on November Employment Report
by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2022 09:33:00 AM
The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. The participation rate decreased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%.
In November, the year-over-year employment change was 4.90 million jobs.
Seasonal Retail Hiring
Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.
This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.
Retailers hired 257 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in November.
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in November to 82.4% from 82.5% in October, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 79.7% from 79.8% the previous month.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:
"The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was about unchanged at 3.7 million in November. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in November to 3.685 million from 3.660 million in October. This is below pre-recession levels and near the fewest part time workers (for economic reasons) in over 20 years.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 6.7% from 6.8% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% and ties the lowest level on record (series started in 1994). This measure is below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.230 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.165 million the previous month.
This is close to pre-pandemic levels.
Summary:
The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations; however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined.