Sunday, July 18, 2021

Monday: Homebuilder Survey

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2021 06:31:00 PM

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of July 18, 2021

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 82, up from 81. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 5 and DOW futures are down 65 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $71.61 per barrel and Brent at $73.27 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $41, and Brent was at $43 - so WTI oil prices are UP about 75% year-over-year (oil prices collapsed at the beginning of the pandemic).

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.17 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.19 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.98 per gallon year-over-year.

July 18th COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2021 05:47:00 PM

Note: Cases and Deaths not updated on Sundays.

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 17th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since June 5th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 337,740,358, as of a week ago 334,151,648. Average doses last week: 0.51 million per day.

COVID Metrics
 TodayYesterdayWeek
Ago
Goal
Percent over 18,
One Dose
68.2%68.1%67.6%≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅
(millions)
161.2161.0159.3≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩29,60427,93218,642≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩17,16816,86513,273≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩238223161≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals,
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 66.5%, Wisconsin at 66.4%, Florida at 66.4%, Nebraska at 66.1%, South Dakota at 65.1%, and Iowa at 64.7%.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Charlotte Region Real Estate in June: Sales Up 12% YoY, Inventory Down 52% YoY

by Calculated Risk on 7/18/2021 08:12:00 AM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For the Charlotte Region:

Closed sales in June 2021 were 6,148, up 12.0% from 5,487 in June 2020.

Active Listings in June 2021 were 3,462, down 51.8% from 7,182 in June 2020.

Inventory in June was up 11.5% from last month, and up 26.7% from the record low in March 2021.

Months of Supply was 0.7 Months in June 2021, compared to 1.6 Months in June 2020.

Saturday, July 17, 2021

July 17th COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2021 05:31:00 PM

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 17th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since June 6th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 337,239,448, as of a week ago 333,565,404. Average doses last week: 0.52 million per day.

COVID Metrics
 TodayYesterdayWeek
Ago
Goal
Percent over 18,
One Dose
68.1%68.0%67.5%≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅
(millions)
161.0160.7159.0≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩29,60427,93218,642≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩16,86516,24113,270≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩238223161≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals,
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 66.5%, Wisconsin at 66.3%, Florida at 66.3%, Nebraska at 66.1%, South Dakota at 65.1%, and Iowa at 64.7%.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Schedule for Week of July 18, 2021

by Calculated Risk on 7/17/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are June Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.

----- Monday, July 19th -----

10:00 AM: The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 82, up from 81. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Tuesday, July 20th -----

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for June.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.592 million SAAR, up from 1.572 million SAAR in May.

----- Wednesday, July 21st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, July 22nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 348 thousand from 360 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data.

Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.90 million SAAR, up from 5.80 million last month.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report 5.79 million SAAR.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for July.

----- Friday, July 23rd -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

Friday, July 16, 2021

California June Housing: Sales up 28% YoY, "Market momentum appears to be moderating"

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2021 06:14:00 PM

The CAR reported: Despite a new record price, growth slowed and pending sales dipped for first time since May 2020, C.A.R. reports

Despite an impressive performance in the first six months of the year, the market momentum appears to be moderating with existing home sales dipping for the second month in a row, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 436,020 in June, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the June pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

June home sales dipped 2.2 percent on a monthly basis from 445,660 in May but were up 28.3% percent from a year ago, when 339,910 homes were sold on an annualized basis. With strong sales growth in June, the state housing market ended the first half of the year with a year-to-date increase of 33.6 percent. Higher-priced markets continued to do well while sales of lower-priced properties remained below last year’s levels.

We’re starting to see what a difference just a slight uptick in inventory and listings can do to help lessen the buying frenzy and create a sense of normalcy,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh. “The market is still extremely competitive, with 70 percent of homes selling above list price; however, the number of new listings increased in June, and both the share of listings with a reduced price and median reduction amount increased, giving buyers more opportunities to purchase.”
...
The state housing supply condition continued to improve with active listings reaching the highest level since last October. The number of for sale properties increased 15.4 percent in June from the prior month as more homes were being listed on the market. New active listings, while still down 12.3 percent from two years ago, increased both month-over-month and year-over-year by around 8 percent in June 2021. Housing supply typically climbs during this time of the year and remains on an upward trend until late July/early August.
emphasis added
Note that inventory was up 15.4% from May to June.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2021 03:52:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler (see important comments on inventory):

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.79 million in June, down 0.2% from May’s preliminary pace and up 21.4% from last June’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that while the inventory of existing homes for sale remained very low last month, inventories on the month increased by significantly more than the seasonal norm, and the YOY decline in June was significantly less than in May. What this means for the NAR’s inventory estimate for June, however, in unclear. As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for most of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”), Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding pending listings have fallen much more sharply than inventory measures including such listings, and this latter inventory measure understates the decline in the effective inventory of homes for sale over the last several months. Having said that, however, it appears as if seasonally adjusted inventories are now on the rise.

Finally, local realtor/MLS reports suggest the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 21% from last June.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release June existing home sales on Thursday, July 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.90 million SAAR.

July 16th COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2021 03:32:00 PM

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 19th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since June 4th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 336,604,158, as of a week ago 332,966,409. Average doses last week: 0.52 million per day.

COVID Metrics
 TodayYesterdayWeek
Ago
Goal
Percent over 18,
One Dose
68.0%67.9%67.4%≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅
(millions)
160.7160.4158.6≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩27,80426,30616,995≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩16,24115,58012,703≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩223211162≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals,
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
✅ Goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 66.5%, Wisconsin at 66.2%, Florida at 66.1%, Nebraska at 66.1%, South Dakota at 65.0%, and Iowa at 64.6%.

COVID-19 Positive Tests per DayClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Forecasts Down to around 8%

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2021 12:05:00 PM

From BofA:

[lowered] 2Q GDP growth of 8.5% qoq saar. [July 15 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimates by ¼pp to +8¼% (qoq ar), reflecting the downward revisions to retail control. [July 16 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.2% for 2021:Q2 and 4.2% for 2021:Q3. [July 16 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.5 percent on July 16, down from 7.9 percent on July 9. [July 16 estimate]

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declined Slightly

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2021 10:31:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of July 13th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearance Volumes Essentially Flat This Week

After last week’s roughly 190,000 reduction in the number of active forbearance plans, a decline of just 1,000 plans may feel miniscule.

It may indeed be, but it’s also very much in line with what we’ve seen month after month since the recovery began – namely, the well-documented, mid-month lull in activity.

As of July 13, 1.86 million borrowers remain in COVID-19 forbearance plans, making up 3.5% of all active mortgages and 2.1% of GSE, 6.2% of FHA/VA and 4.0% of Portfolio/PLS loans.

What little weekly improvement was seen was found among FHA/VA forbearance plans (-5,000). This was partially offset by a 4,000 rise among portfolio/PLS forbearances while at the same time plan volumes among GSE loans held steady from last week.

Black Knight ForbearanceClick on graph for larger image.

All in, this puts the number of loans in active forbearance down 196,000 (-9.5%) from the same time last month. With nearly 400,000 plans still scheduled to be reviewed for extension/removal this month, there is still a chance for moderate recovery towards the end of this month and the beginning of August.

Removal volumes returned to mid-June levels as the number of loans being reviewed for extension/removal trailed off after the first week of the month, while plan starts edged higher, driven by an increase in restart activity.

This too is a familiar phenomenon; one we’ve seen following large volumes of quarterly plan reviews over the course of the pandemic. As in the past, the increase in restarts is most likely a counter to last week’s large number of exits.
emphasis added