RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2021 08:19:00 AM
Monday, January 25, 2021
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed.
IMPORTANT: Be safe now - if all goes well, we could all be vaccinated by Q2 2021.
----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
Click on graph for larger image.
This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019-2020 (Blue) and 2020-2021 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average.
This data is as of January 24th.
The seven day average is down 64.5% from last year (35.5% of last year). (Dashed line)
There was a slow increase from the bottom, with ups and downs due to the holidays - but TSA data has mostly moved sideways.
----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----
The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.
Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:
This data is updated through January 23, 2021.
This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."
Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.
Dining picked up during the holidays. Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York. Note that California dining is off sharply with the orders to close.
----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the years 2016 through 2019. Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021.
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
Click on graph for larger image.This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019-2020 (Blue) and 2020-2021 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average.
This data is as of January 24th.
The seven day average is down 64.5% from last year (35.5% of last year). (Dashed line)
There was a slow increase from the bottom, with ups and downs due to the holidays - but TSA data has mostly moved sideways.
The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.
Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:This data is updated through January 23, 2021.
This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."
Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.
Dining picked up during the holidays. Note that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York. Note that California dining is off sharply with the orders to close.
This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the years 2016 through 2019. Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through January 21st.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $200 million per week at this time of year).
----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.
The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).
This data is through January 16th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 31.8% year-over-year. Seasonally we'd expect that business travel would start to pick up in the new year, but there will probably not be much pickup early in 2021.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.
Blue is for 2020. At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. Red is for 2021.
As of January 15th, gasoline supplied was off about 8.5% (about 91.5% of the same week in 2019).
Note: People driving instead of flying might have boosted gasoline consumption.
----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.
There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.
This data is through January 24th for the United States and several selected cities.
The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends.
IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.
According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 47% of the January 2020 level. It is at 35% in Chicago, and 53% in Houston - and mostly moving sideways.
----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is daily data since early 2020.
This data is through Friday, January 22nd.
Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $200 million per week at this time of year).
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).
This data is through January 16th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 31.8% year-over-year. Seasonally we'd expect that business travel would start to pick up in the new year, but there will probably not be much pickup early in 2021.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.Blue is for 2020. At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. Red is for 2021.
As of January 15th, gasoline supplied was off about 8.5% (about 91.5% of the same week in 2019).
Note: People driving instead of flying might have boosted gasoline consumption.
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.
There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.
This data is through January 24th for the United States and several selected cities.The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends.
IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.
According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 47% of the January 2020 level. It is at 35% in Chicago, and 53% in Houston - and mostly moving sideways.
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is daily data since early 2020.This data is through Friday, January 22nd.
Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
Sunday, January 24, 2021
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2021 09:07:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of January 24, 2021
• FOMC Preview
Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data.
• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 6 and DOW futures are up 60 (fair value).
Oil prices were unchanged over the last week with WTI futures at $52.28 per barrel and Brent at $55.36 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $54, and Brent was at $59 - so WTI oil prices are down about 5% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.39 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.54 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.15 per gallon year-over-year.
January 24 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations
by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2021 07:20:00 PM
Note: Bloomberg has great data on vaccinations.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
"Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 22.4 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 1.16 million doses per day were administered."Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.
There were 1,700,000 test results reported over the last 24 hours.
There were 143,000 positive tests.
Over 73,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.
Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.
The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.4% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)
The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.It is possible cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are declining from a very high level.
FOMC Preview
by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2021 10:10:00 AM
Expectations are there will be no change to rate policy when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Here are some comments from Goldman Sachs economists:
"The January FOMC meeting should be fairly quiet. While the pace of economic recovery has faltered in recent months due to virus resurgence, nearly all Fed officials have said that the medium-term outlook remains bright. We expect the statement to acknowledge the negative growth news and worsening public health situation but to stop short of suggesting any downgrade to the medium-term outlook. ...Our best guess remains that the Fed begins tapering in 2022 ..."No projections will be released at this meeting. However, for review, here are the December FOMC projections.
emphasis added
Note that GDP decreased at a 5.0% annual rate in Q1, decreased at a 31.4% annual rate in Q2, and increased at 33.1% annual rate in Q3. Consensus forecasts are for GDP to increase around a 4.3% annual rate in Q4 (to be released this coming Thursday). This forecast would put the economy down around 2.4% Q4-over-Q4. Close to the bottom of the December projections.
Some early forecasts for 2021 are for GDP to increase 5% or more in 2021. For example, Merrill Lynch noted on Friday:
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 6.7% in December. This will put the unemployment rate in the middle of the range of the December projections for Q4.
"The economic outlook for the US is brightening. Our latest work on the consumer gives us another reason to call for upside risk to our already-above consensus GDP forecast of 5% in 2021. Tack on another targeted stimulus package of around $1tn, US growth could easily exceed 6% this year."But there also downside risk for 2021. For example, if there are vaccine resistant mutations to the virus, or it takes longer than expected to achieve "herd immunity". The pandemic is still a huge unknown.
| GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Dec 2020 | -2.5 to -2.2 | 3.7 to 5.0 | 3.0 to 3.5 | 2.2 to 2.7 |
The unemployment rate was at 6.7% in December. This will put the unemployment rate in the middle of the range of the December projections for Q4.
Note that the unemployment rate doesn't remotely capture the economic damage to the labor market. Not only are there 10.7 million people unemployed, and 4.1 million people have left the labor force since January. And millions more are being supported by various provisions of the CARES Act - that still hasn't been renewed and is schedule to expire on December 26th.
My sense is the FOMC was optimistic on the unemployment rate for 2021. Hopefully I'm wrong.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of November 2020, PCE inflation was up 1.1% from November 2019.
PCE core inflation was up 1.4% in November year-over-year.
My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will increase in 2021 (from the current 1.4%), but I think too much inflation will NOT be a concern in 2021. Since we saw negative MoM PCE and core PCE reading in March and April, we should ignore a jump in YoY inflation in March, April and May!
My sense is the FOMC was optimistic on the unemployment rate for 2021. Hopefully I'm wrong.
| Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Dec 2020 | 6.7 to 6.8 | 4.7 to 5.4 | 3.8 to 4.6 | 3.5 to 4.3 |
As of November 2020, PCE inflation was up 1.1% from November 2019.
| Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Dec 2020 | 1.2 | 1.7 to 1.9 | 1.8 to 2.0 | 1.9 to 2.1 |
PCE core inflation was up 1.4% in November year-over-year.
| Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Date | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Dec 2020 | 1.4 | 1.7 to 1.8 | 1.8 to 2.0 | 1.9 to 2.1 |
My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will increase in 2021 (from the current 1.4%), but I think too much inflation will NOT be a concern in 2021. Since we saw negative MoM PCE and core PCE reading in March and April, we should ignore a jump in YoY inflation in March, April and May!
Saturday, January 23, 2021
January 23 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations
by Calculated Risk on 1/23/2021 06:46:00 PM
Note: Bloomberg has great data on vaccinations.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
"Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 21.1 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 1.06 million doses per day were administered."Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.
There were 1,898,062 test results reported over the last 24 hours.
There were 173,729 positive tests.
Over 71,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.
Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.
The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.1% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)
The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.It is possible cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are still at a very high level.
Schedule for Week of January 24, 2021
by Calculated Risk on 1/23/2021 08:11:00 AM
The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP and December New Home sales. Other key indicators include December Personal Income and Outlays and November Case-Shiller house prices.
For manufacturing, the Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.
The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected at this meeting.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.This graph shows the Year over year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 8.1% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January.
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for December 2020
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for December. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in durable goods.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2020 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 4.3% annualized in Q4.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an decrease to 880 thousand from 900 thousand last week.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963.
The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
The consensus is for 860 thousand SAAR, up from 841 thousand in November.
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for January.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% decrease in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 48.5, up from 48.2 in December.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.6% decrease in the index.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 79.2.
Friday, January 22, 2021
January 22 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations
by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2021 07:18:00 PM
Note: Bloomberg has great data on vaccinations.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
"Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 19.8 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 982,739 doses per day were administered."Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.
It is possible the 7-day average cases has peaked. Stay safe! I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months.
The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.
There were 1,988,756 test results reported over the last 24 hours.
There were 188,983 positive tests.
Almost 68,000 US deaths have been reported so far in January. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.
Click on graph for larger image.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.
The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.5% (red line is 7 day average). The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)
The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.It is possible cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are still at a very high level.
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly
by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2021 03:30:00 PM
Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.
This data is as of January 19th.
From Black Knight: Active Forbearance Plans Increase Slightly as Imporvement Continues to Plateau
The trend of mid-month increases in active forbearance plans we’ve been reporting on for some time continues in 2021, with the population of homeowners in such plans rising by 17,000 this week.
According to the latest weekly snapshot of our McDash Flash daily mortgage performance data, 2.74 million homeowners were in active forbearance as of January 19. The population has been vacillating between 2.71 and 2.83 million since early November, when the country began seeing new coronavirus case spikes and resulting shutdowns.
...
Click on graph for larger image.
Removal rates have also slowed noticeably following the six-month point of forbearance plans. This suggests that those borrowers who remain in forbearance were likely more heavily impacted by the economic downturn and thus are less likely to leave such plans before the full allowable 12-month period runs down.
...
Though we are a far cry from the peaks we saw last summer as far as the total number of active forbearance plans, the rate of improvement continues to be relatively slow. We’re seeing fewer new plan starts, with that number holding steady at the three-week average and down 30 percent from the same week in December. At the same time, plan removals remain weak, with this week recording the second lowest weekly removal volume observed to date since we began monitoring the situation in April.
emphasis added
Comments on December Existing Home Sales
by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2021 01:22:00 PM
Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.76 million in December
A few key points:
1) This was the highest sales rate for December since 2004, and the 2nd highest sales for December on record. Some of the increase over the last several months was probably related to pent up demand from the shutdowns in March and April. Other reasons include record low mortgage rates, a move away from multi-family rentals, strong second home buying (to escape the high-density cities) and favorable demographics.
The delay in the buying season has pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels. For example, this number of sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) in July, would have given a 5.3 million Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR), as opposed to 6.76 million SAAR. So the delay in the buying season is a factor in the headline number being so high.
2) Inventory is very low, and was down 23% year-over-year (YoY) in December. This is the lowest level of inventory for December since at least the early 1990s. Months-of-supply is at a record low. Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory
There are going to be some difficult comparisons in the second half of next year!
2) Inventory is very low, and was down 23% year-over-year (YoY) in December. This is the lowest level of inventory for December since at least the early 1990s. Months-of-supply is at a record low. Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory
3) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the Consensus.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2019 and 2020.
Note that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined.
Even with weak sales in April, May, and June, annual sales in 2020 were at 5,640,000, up 5.6% from 5,340,000 in 2019. This was the highest annual sales rate since 2006 (6,477,000).
The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) by month (Red dashes are 2020), and the minimum and maximum for 2005 through 2019.
Sales NSA in December (537,000) were 23.7% above sales last year in December (434,000). This was the highest sales for December (NSA) since 2004.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2019 and 2020.
Note that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined.
Even with weak sales in April, May, and June, annual sales in 2020 were at 5,640,000, up 5.6% from 5,340,000 in 2019. This was the highest annual sales rate since 2006 (6,477,000).
The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) by month (Red dashes are 2020), and the minimum and maximum for 2005 through 2019.Sales NSA in December (537,000) were 23.7% above sales last year in December (434,000). This was the highest sales for December (NSA) since 2004.
Q4 GDP Forecasts
by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2021 11:37:00 AM
The BEA will release the preliminary estimate for Q4 GDP this coming Thursday, January 28th. The consensus estimate is for a 4.3% annualized increase in GDP.
From Merrrill Lynch:
We expect the first estimate of 4Q GDP growth to come in at a robust 4.5% qoq saar, supported by continued strength in residential and equipment investment. Consumption likely slowed but remained positive. [Jan 22 estimate] emphasis addedFrom Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.0% (qoq ar). [Jan 21 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2020:Q4 and 6.6% for 2021:Q1. [Jan 22 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 7.5 percent on January 21, up from 7.4 percent on January 15. [Jan 21 estimate]
