by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2011 10:56:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Germany, France to Propose Treaty Adjustments on Fiscal Rules (ht Brian)

Germany and France said they will make proposals to amend European treaties in coming days to impose greater fiscal discipline on euro-area countries ...

The initiative announced today at a meeting in Strasbourg, France, involving German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti ...

The planned treaty changes prepared for a Dec. 9 European summit involve “the question of a fiscal union, that is a deepened political cooperation,” Merkel told reporters after the meeting over lunch. “It’s not about a quid pro quo. It’s about overcoming the defects in the euro zone’s construction, step by step.”

Merkel won backing on demanding changes to treaties as a prerequisite to discussing the issuance of common euro bonds.

From Bloomberg: Merkel Rejects Euro Bonds After Failed Auction ‘Wake-Up Call’

German Chancellor Angela Merkel again ruled out joint euro-area borrowing and an expanded role for the European Central Bank in fighting the debt crisis. ... Euro bonds are “not needed and not appropriate,” Merkel said today at a press conference

More from the WSJ: Leaders to Propose EU Treaty Changes

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2011 09:02:00 AM

• From the Athens News: Papademos says Samaras letter 'satisfactory'

The standoff over Antonis Samaras’ refusal to sign a written commitment that he backs austerity measures seems to have come to an end, after Prime Minister Lucas Papademos told the cabinet on Thursday that international lenders had reacted positively to the letter that the New Democracy leader sent to the country’s lenders yesterday.

"Papademos said the content of the letter was satisfactory. There is an initial positive response to it (from abroad)," a minister who attended the meeting told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

• From the WSJ: Portugal Hit by Downgrade and Strike

Fitch, which matched Moody's Investors Service's move in July to place Portugal in junk territory, lowered its rating one notch, to double-B-plus from triple-B-minus, and warned further downgrades were possible because a recession in the country will increase challenges for the government to comply with its austerity plans. It maintained a negative outlook.

"The country's large fiscal imbalances, high indebtedness across all sectors, and adverse macroeconomic outlook mean the sovereign's credit profile is no longer consistent with an investment-grade rating," Fitch said. "However, Fitch judges the government's commitment to the program to be strong."

• From the Financial Times: France pushes hard on ECB intervention The FT reports that Nicolas Sarkozy, Italy's Mario Monti, and Angela Merkel are meeting in Strasbourg today - and Sarkokzy is expected to push for ECB intervention.

• Something else to watch from the NY Times: Economic Trouble in the West Shows Signs of Catching Up With Asia

Within the last few weeks ... cracks have emerged in the region’s mighty economies, and analysts and policy makers have become more concerned about the painful disruption that could spill into Asia as the situation in Europe continues to deteriorate and the United States’ growth remains subdued.

Exports from Asia have been softening for months as demand in Europe, in particular, has slowed.

• And on German bonds:

From Paul Krugman: The Apocalypse Trade

the big story: German bonds are now being priced as a risky asset — what the FT calls the “apocalypse trade“. The interest rate on bunds, at 2.21% as I write this, is still very low by historical standards. But it’s above the rate on UK bonds (2.17%) and way above the rate on US bonds (1.88%).

The way to see this is that the market is in effect pricing in a real possibility of eurozone collapse.

And from the FT Alphaville: Borrowing costs in the United States of Europe

[L]et’s assume we get a Eurobond as envisaged by President Barroso. What would that yield? Some 4 per cent perhaps. Lower?

Viewed in this context one can understand why investors were reluctant to buy German paper with a 1.98 per cent coupon. Why not wait and pick up double the yield on German-backed Eurobonds.

The glib answer to that question is because it will never happen. Germany will never allow it.

However, this story, which ran on Reuters overnight, suggests that Eurobonds are not completely verboten, especially if Germany could force through treaty changes to enforce budgetary discipline in the eurozone.

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2011 11:32:00 PM

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for September will be released next Tuesday, November 29th. Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries put out a forecast for the Case-Shiller HPI yesterday: Zillow Forecast: September Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.2% Decline from One Year Ago

Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.8%. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be -0.2% and 0.0% for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
...
"We expect to see continued home value depreciation as unemployment and negative equity remain high and as the pace of foreclosures, kept artificially low since the robo-signing controversy, increases again."

On an NSA basis, this would leave the 10-city composite about 3.9% above the post bubble low, and the 20-city composite about 3.5% above the post bubble low.

The CoreLogic (used by the Fed) index (NSA) for September was about 3.6% above the post bubble low.

However this would put the seasonally adjusted 20-City composite index at a new post-bubble low (and the 10-city would be just above a new low). Because the seasonal factor has been impacted by the high percentage of foreclosures, most people just report the NSA numbers - and the NSA numbers will probably not be at new lows until early next year.

But there is still a strong seasonal pattern to house prices, and it will be interesting if the SA numbers are at new lows ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2011 06:55:00 PM

Yesterday the Federal Reserve outlined the annual bank supervisory stress tests. The Fed included a stress test scenario for house prices and inflation, so we can calculate the impact on real house prices.

The stress test scenario is outlined here. The stress tests assume the unemployment rate will rise to 13% in 2013, that the Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index will decline by more than 50% from the current level. The scenario also assumes that nominal house prices will fall another 20%+.

Note: The Federal Reserve uses the CoreLogic House Price Index (Blue).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real house prices through August 2011 (September for CoreLogic), and the Federal Reserves stress test scenario (blue after Q3 2011).

This scenario would take real house prices back to about mid-1984 prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation).

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2011 03:13:00 PM

Yields are rising quickly ...

From Reuters: Belgian/German spreads hit euro-era highs on political deadlock

The yield premium of Belgian 10-year government bonds over German Bunds hit euro-era highs on Wednesday after a blow to prospects of forming a government left the country vulnerable to a fast-spreading debt crisis.

The highly-indebted country, which has been without a government for 18 months, suffered a further blow on Tuesday when its lead negotiator in forming an administration resigned.

From the WSJ: German Bond Auction Adds to Investor Worries on Euro Zone

A German government debt auction drew some of the weakest demand since the introduction of the euro, signaling diminishing investor appetite for even the safest euro-zone assets amid Europe's worsening debt crisis.

From the Athens News: Samaras addresses letter to creditors

In the latest move in the power game over the written commitment that EU leaders have asked Pasok and New Democracy to cosign, Antonis Samaras on Wednesday sent a letter to the European Union and IMF reiterating his support for the new prime minister and for fiscal adjustment targets.
...
He noted, however, that “certain policies have to be modified”.
...
It was not immediately clear whether the letter would satisfy the EU and IMF ... Earlier on Wednesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that if Samaras did not sign, an 8bn euro bailout payment would not be released.

From Bloomberg: Three-Month Dollar Libor Reaches 0.5%, 1st Time Since July 2010

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three- month dollar loans climbed to 0.50028 percent from 0.495 percent yesterday, data from the British Bankers’ Association showed. That’s the highest level since July 21, 2010.

Below is a table for several European bond yields (links to Bloomberg).

The Italian 10 year bond yield is at 6.97%; the Italian 2 year yield is up to 7.12%!

The Spanish 10 year bond yield has increased to 6.65%; the Spanish 2 year yield is up to 5.86%.

The Belgian 10 year yield is up sharply to 5.48%; the Belgian 2 year yield is 4.94%.

The Irish 10 year yield is at 8.21%. The Portuguese 10 year yield is at 11.3%.

The French 10 year bond yield is at 3.69%.

Greece	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Portugal	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Ireland	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Spain	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Italy	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Belgium	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
France	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Germany	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2011 11:25:00 AM

Although there are significant downside risks from the European financial crisis and additional fiscal tightening in early 2012, right now the U.S. data suggests continued sluggish growth ...

• From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Manufacturing Activity Eased Slightly

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity eased slightly in November, but expectations for future months remained relatively solid.

“Factory activity in the region grew slightly slower in November than in the previous two months, and price pressures eased a bit,” said Wilkerson. “But capital spending plans were generally solid, and many firms planned to add workers in coming months as well.”
...
The month-over-month composite index was 4 in November, down from 8 in October and 6 in September ... The production and shipments indexes decreased to 0, and the new orders and order backlog indexes were negative. The employment index dropped to its lowest level of the year but remained slightly positive, and the new orders for exports index moderated slightly.

In general the regional manufacturing surveys have indicated sluggish growth in November.

• From Truecare.com: Highest SAAR for New Vehicle Sales Since Cash for Clunkers

For November 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 972,712 units, up 11.5 percent from November 2010 and down 4.7 percent from October 2011 (on an unadjusted basis) ... The November 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.3 million new car sales, up from 13.2 million in October 2011 and up from 12.3 million in November 2010.

“We’ve seen six straight months of year over year gains for new vehicle sales, which shows positive momentum for the auto industry, ” said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com. “There is a strong possibility that we could reach a 14 million SAAR next month.“

Earlier:
• Personal Income increased 0.4% in October, Spending increased 0.1%
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 393,000

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2011 10:00:00 AM

The final November Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined to 64.1 from the preliminary reading of 64.2, up from the October reading of 60.9, and up from 55.7 in August.

From MarketWatch: November UMich consumer sentiment hits 64.1

A gauge of consumer sentiment reached 64.1 in the final reading for November -- the highest reading since June -- compared with 60.9 in October, according to Wednesday reports on the data from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters. A preliminary reading for November pegged the gauge at 64.2

Click on graph for larger image.

Consumer sentiment is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices. But right now the European financial crisis is probably also impacting sentiment.

Although sentiment is up from October, this is still very weak, and slightly below the consensus forecast of 64.6.

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2011 08:56:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October:

Personal income increased $48.1 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $8.2 billion, or 0.1 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.1 percent in October, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in September. ... PCE price index -- The price index for PCE decreased 0.1 percent in October, in contrast to an increase of 0.2 percent in September.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

PCE increased 0.1% in October, and real PCE increased 0.1%.

Note: The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent.

The personal saving rate was at 3.5% in October.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $400.2 billion in October, compared with $376.9 billion in September. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.5 percent in October, compared with 3.3 percent in September.

This graph shows the saving rate starting in 1959 (using a three month trailing average for smoothing) through the October Personal Income report.

In October, income increased faster than spending - reversing a recent trend - and the saving rate increased slightly. However the saving rate has declined sharply over the last few months. Personal income was slightly better than expected, and spending a little lower than expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2011 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending November 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 393,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 391,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 397,500.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week to 394,250.

This is the lowest level for the 4 week average since early April - although this is still elevated.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:




All current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2011 07:26:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 4.0 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since July 29, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8.2 percent from last week to its highest level since August 12, 2011.
...
"Purchase applications increased last week, returning to levels from before the Veteran's Day holiday," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "However, purchase activity remains almost 5 percent below last year's level."
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) remained unchanged at 4.23 percent, with points decreasing to 0.46 from 0.52 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. ...

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500)increased to 4.59 percent from 4.56 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

The following graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Click on graph for larger image.

Although the purchase index increased, the index is still sharply below the levels of June and July - and at about the same level as in 1996. This does not include cash buyers, and, according to the NAR, cash buyers "accounted for 29 percent of purchases in October".
All current Existing Home Graphs