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Wednesday, January 26, 2011

New Home Sales increase in December

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2011 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 329 thousand. This is up from a revised 280 thousand in November.

New Home Sales Monthly Not Seasonally Adjusted Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted or annualized).

Note the Red columns for 2010. In December 2010, 22 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). This is a new record low for the month of December.

The previous record low for December was 23 thousand in 1966; the record high was 87 thousand in December 2005.

New Home Sales and Recessions The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales of new single-family houses in December 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 329,000 ... This is 17.5 percent (±17.7%)* above the revised November rate of 280,000, but is 7.6 percent (±17.0%)* below the December 2009 estimate of 356,000.
And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Months of Supply and RecessionsMonths of supply decreased to 6.9 in December from 8.4 in November. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. This is still high (less than 6 months supply is normal).
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 190,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate.
New Home Sales Inventory The final graph shows new home inventory.

The 329 thousand annual sales rate for December is still very low, and this was just the weakest December on record. This was above the consensus forecast of 300 thousand homes sold (SAAR).

It says something when sales increase and are still below the previous record lows for all years prior to 2010. New Home sales are still bouncing along the bottom - the good news is inventory is still declining.

MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications lowest since last October

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2011 08:14:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 15.3 percent from the previous week and reached its lowest level since January 2010. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 8.7 percent from one week earlier. The Purchase Index is at its lowest level since October 2010.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.8 percent from 4.77 percent, with points decreasing to 1.19 from 1.20 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.
MBA Purchase Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The four-week moving average of the purchase index suggests weak existing home sales through the first few months of 2011.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Preview: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report

by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2011 11:21:00 PM

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission report will be released on Thursday, but Sewell Chan at the NY Times has some excerpts: Financial Crisis Was Avoidable, Inquiry Finds

The 2008 financial crisis was an “avoidable” disaster caused by widespread failures in government regulation, corporate mismanagement and heedless risk-taking by Wall Street, according to the conclusions of a federal inquiry.
...
The majority report finds fault with two Fed chairmen: Alan Greenspan, who led the central bank as the housing bubble expanded, and his successor, Ben S. Bernanke, who did not foresee the crisis but played a crucial role in the response. It criticizes Mr. Greenspan for advocating deregulation and cites a “pivotal failure to stem the flow of toxic mortgages” under his leadership as a “prime example” of negligence.
...
[T]he report is harsh on regulators. It finds that the Securities and Exchange Commission failed to require big banks to hold more capital to cushion potential losses and halt risky practices, and that the Fed “neglected its mission.”

It says the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates some banks, and the Office of Thrift Supervision, which oversees savings and loans, blocked states from curbing abuses because they were “caught up in turf wars.”
When the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission was announced, I was skeptical if they'd be willing to address the willful lack of regulatory supervision and the role of Wall Street in the crisis.

These excerpts give me hope - there is much more in Chan's article - now I'm definitely looking forward to reading the report! Barry Ritholtz is happy too.

Earlier posts on Case-Shiller Home Price indexes:
Case-Shiller: U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows in November
House Prices and Months-of-Supply, and Real House Prices
• House Price graph gallery

SOTU 2011 9 PM ET

by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2011 08:42:00 PM

Update:
Text of Obama’s State of the Union speech

From the NY Times: Obama Sees Global Fight for U.S. Jobs

From the WSJ: Obama: Freeze Spending

Earlier posts on Case-Shiller Home Price indexes:
Case-Shiller: U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows in November
House Prices and Months-of-Supply, and Real House Prices
• House Price graph gallery

Housing: What Generation Y Wants

by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2011 06:59:00 PM

From Patrick Coolican at the Las Vegas Sun: Generation Y wants housing Las Vegas has in short supply

[D]evelopers filled the valley and made piles of money with suburban tract homes that carry little appeal for the next generation of housing consumers, according to an emerging body of survey data of the so-called Millennials or Generation Y.

That’s the generation — about 80 million strong, which is larger than the postwar Baby Boom — born from about the mid-1970s to the early 2000s.

At the recent homebuilders trade show in Orlando, Fla., Melina Duggal of the real estate consulting firm RCLCO laid out the data on the next generation of housing consumers. Her firm asked young renters where they would move to if they had the opportunity. More than 80 percent said they would choose an urban area, or a suburban area that qualified as “urban lite,” such as Arlington, Va., or Bethesda, Md. These are suburbs that feature walkability and easy access to urban amenities.
As Patrick notes, this preference for urban living can partially be explained by their current age:
"[T]hey may want the urban experience now, but eventually they’ll marry and have children and want to live near good suburban schools and have a bigger home with a yard."
Maybe ... I'm not in Generation Y (or even close), but I desire walkability and to be close to some urban amenities. Maybe tastes are changing.

State Unemployment Rates: The Decline from Recession Maximum

by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2011 03:55:00 PM

Earlier today I posted the usual graph of the state unemployment rate (with highs and lows since 1976).

Reader picosec suggested comparing the current state unemployment rates against the peak unemployment rates for each state during the recent recession. He writes: "This would indicate the relative rate that each state is recovering and might inspire discussion about why certain states are recovering faster/slower than others."

The following graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (blue), and the max during the recession (red). If there is no red, the state is currently at the maximum during the recession.

State Unemployment Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The states are ranked by the largest percentage decline from the peak. New Hampshire's unemployment rate has declined from 7.1% to 5.5% currently (the largest percentage decline). Michigan's rate has declined from 14.5% to 11.7%, the largest percentage point decline, but less as percentage than New Hampshire or Vermont.

The auto states - led by Michigan - tend to be on the left side of the graph with improving employment. The worst housing bubble states - California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada - are mostly on the right side of the graph.

Six states are at the recession maximum (no improvement): Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Texas and West Virginia.

House Prices and Months-of-Supply, and Real House Prices

by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2011 12:26:00 PM

This morning S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price indexes for November (a three month average). Here is a look at house prices and existing home months-of-supply, and also real house prices (2nd graph).

House Prices and Months-of-Supply Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows existing home months-of-supply (left axis), and the annualized change in the Case-Shiller composite 20 house price index (right axis, inverted).

House prices are through November using the composite 20 index. Months-of-supply is through December. Based on this general relationship, I expect house prices to fall further.

The months-of-supply declined to 8.1 months in December, but I think there is a good chance that the months-of-supply will increase again in the spring of 2011. The months-of-supply uses the seasonally adjusted sales rate, but the not seasonally adjusted inventory - even though there is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory (low in December and January and higher during the summer).

We will need to watch inventory and months-of-supply very closely over the next few months for hints about house prices.

Note: there have been periods with high months-of-supply and rising house prices (see: Lawler: Again on Existing Home Months’ Supply: What’s “Normal?” ) so this is just a guide.

The following graph shows the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index, and the CoreLogic House Price Index in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

Real House PricesIn real terms, both indexes are back to early 2001 prices. Also both indexes are at post-bubble lows.

A few key points:
• The real price indexes are at post-bubble lows. Those who argued prices bottomed some time ago are already wrong in real terms, and will probably be wrong in nominal terms soon.

• Don't expect real prices to fall to '98 levels. In many areas - if the population is increasing - house prices increase slightly faster than inflation over time, so there is an upward slope in real prices.

• Real prices are still too high, but they are much closer to the eventual bottom than the top in 2005. This isn't like in 2005 when prices were way out of the normal range.

• Prices will probably fall some more and my forecast is for a decline of 5% to 10% from the October 2010 levels for the national price indexes. We will need to watch inventory (and months-of-supply) closely over the next few months to forecast house prices.

Misc: State Unemployment Rates, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey, Consumer Confidence

by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2011 10:53:00 AM

Several items ...

• From the Telegraph: UK economy shrinks 0.5pc

Gross domestic product fell 0.5pc in the fourth quarter, the most in more than a year, the Office for National Statistics reported on Tuesday.
Double dip?

• From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary
Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in December. ... Nevada continued to register the highest unemployment rate among the states, 14.5 percent in December. The states with the next highest rates were California, 12.5 percent, and Florida, 12.0 percent. The Nevada rate was the highest in its series.
State Unemployment Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the high and low unemployment rates for each state (and D.C.) since 1976. The red bar is the current unemployment rate (sorted by the current unemployment rate).

Ten states now have double digit unemployment rates.

• From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continues to Expand in January; Expectations Remain Upbeat
In January, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — fell seven points to 18 from December's reading of 25. Among the index's components, shipments dropped seven points to 23, new orders lost twelve points to finish at 17, and the jobs index was unchanged at 14.
This was below expectations of a decline to 22.

• The Conference Board reported their consumer confidence index was at 60.6 (1985=100), up from 52.5 in December. This was above expectations of an increase to 54.2. Confidence is a coincident indicator and this suggests improvement in January.

Earlier:
Case-Shiller: U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows in November

Case-Shiller: U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows in November

by Calculated Risk on 1/25/2011 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (actually a 3 month average of September, October and November).

This includes prices for 20 individual cities and and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data.

From S&P: U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows

Data through November 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to what was reported for October 2010. The 10-City Composite was down 0.4% and the 20-City Composite fell 1.6% from their November 2009 levels. Home prices fell in 19 of 20 MSAs and both Composites in November from their October levels. In November, only four MSAs – Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC – showed year-over-year gains. The Composite indices remain above their spring 2009 lows; however, eight markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen even further than the lows set in the spring of 2009.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 31.0% from the peak, and down 0.4% in November(SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 30.9% from the peak, and down 0.5% in November (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 0.4% compared to November 2009. This is the first year-over-year decline since 2009.

The Composite 20 SA is down 1.6% compared to November 2009.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in only 3 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in November seasonally adjusted.

Prices in Las Vegas are off 57.8% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 8.9% from the peak.

Prices are now falling - and falling just about everywhere. As S&P noted "eight markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007". Both composite indices are still slightly above the post-bubble low.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Report: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission has referred multiple cases for possible prosecution

by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2011 08:42:00 PM

Note: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission will release its report on the causes of the financial and economic crisis on Thursday, January 27, 2011, in Washington, D.C. at 10 AM ET.

From Shahien Nasiripour at the HuffPo: Financial Crisis Commission Finds Cause For Prosecution Of Wall Street

The bipartisan panel appointed by Congress to investigate the financial crisis has concluded that several financial industry figures appear to have broken the law and has referred multiple cases to state or federal authorities for potential prosecution ...

Though civil charges appear a more likely outcome should prosecution result, one source familiar with the panel's deliberations said criminal charges should not be ruled out.

The commission's decision to refer conduct for prosecution underscores the severity of the activities it has uncovered and plans to detail in its widely anticipated final report, the sources said.
I haven't had high expectations for this commission - we already know the dissenting reports are a joke - but I'll still read the report on Thursday.