by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2009 10:04:00 AM

The NAR site is having problems again (I'll have graphs soon). Here is a story from MarketWatch: Existing-home sales drop 5.3% in January

Sales of pre-owned homes dropped 5.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million in January, the lowest sales pace in 12 years ...

Here is the NAR Press Release: January Existing-Home Sales Fall, Inventory Down

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million units in January from a level of 4.74 million units in December, and are 8.6 percent lower the 4.91 million-unit pace in January 2008.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 2.7 percent to 3.60 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace. Because sales were down, the January supply is up from a 9.4-month supply in December.
...
“Distressed sales activity appears to be leveling off, although there are wide differences locally. For example, close to 80 percent of all sales are either foreclosed properties or short sales in Santa Ana, Calif., but less than 20 percent in the Chicago region,” Yun said. About a quarter of all inventory is listed as being distressed, but NAR estimates that distressed sales – foreclosed or those requiring a lender-mediated short sale – comprised about 45 percent of all sales in January.

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2009 12:59:00 AM

Most of the following article is on the stress test, but it does mention that the Citi deal could be announced Wednesday.

From Eric Dash at the NY Times: Stress Test for Banks Exposes Rift on Wall St.

Citigroup, which maintains that it is well capitalized by its regulators’ standards, was nonetheless locked in negotiations with the government on Tuesday over a third rescue. Under the plan, the government is expected to raise its stake in Citigroup to 30 to 40 percent, from about 8 percent now. The deal, which was moving toward completion and could be announced as early as Wednesday, would bolster the level of common stock that investors are focused on.

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2009 10:00:00 PM

For the late readers, earlier today I graphed the price-to-rent, price-to-income and real prices based on the National Case-Shiller Home Price index.

Here is the monthly Case-Shiller data: Case-Shiller: House Prices Decline Sharply in December

And the Fed released the Q4 delinquency report: Fed: Delinquency Rates Increased Sharply in Q4

And the joke of the day comes from Senator Dodd: "The stress test has introduced stress."

From CNBC: Handicapping the Bank 'Stress Test'

“The outcome of the stress test is not going to be fail or pass [for banks],” Benrnake told legislators, but to “get a clear estimate of their capital needs.”

Thus far, the Treasury has only said that: a) the tests would be applied to banks with assets over a $100 billion, which is essentially the top 20; b) banks found lacking would be told they needed to raise private capital; c) if they were unable to do so, they could apply for government funds under the newly created Capital Access Program, CAP, ... d) funding would come from the second tranche of TARP.

Here is more from Bloomberg: U.S. to Get Bank Ownership Stakes Only as Losses Rise

“I don’t see any reason to destroy the franchise value or to create the huge legal uncertainties of trying to formally nationalize a bank when it just isn’t necessary,” Bernanke said at the Senate Banking Committee hearing.
...
Bernanke also said the so-called stress tests that regulators will run on the 19 banks will look at potential losses over a two-year horizon if the economy worsens.

The stress tests “will look at the balance sheets and the capital needs of each of our 19 largest $100-billion-dollar-plus banks over the next two-year horizon,” ...

The assessment will use “both a consensus forecast -- where we think the economy is likely to be based on private sector forecasts -- and an alternative which is worse,” Bernanke said.

We will know more tomorrow when Treasury Secretary Geithner speaks tomorrow (Wednesday), but this is definitely different than my original understanding of the purpose of the stress tests.

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2009 08:01:00 PM

The policy week continues ... Bernanke testifies again tomorrow, President Obama speaks tonight, Geithner discusses the bank bailout tomorrow, and the proposed budget details will be released on Thursday.

Here are some excerpts from President Obama's address to a joint session of Congress tonight at 9 PM ET.

While our economy may be weakened and our confidence shaken; though we are living through difficult and uncertain times, tonight I want every American to know this: We will rebuild, we will recover, and the United States of America will emerge stronger than before.

"The weight of this crisis will not determine the destiny of this nation. The answers to our problems don’t lie beyond our reach. They exist in our laboratories and universities; in our fields and our factories; in the imaginations of our entrepreneurs and the pride of the hardest-working people on Earth. Those qualities that have made America the greatest force of progress and prosperity in human history we still possess in ample measure. What is required now is for this country to pull together, confront boldly the challenges we face, and take responsibility for our future once more.
...
We have lived through an era where too often, short-term gains were prized over long-term prosperity; where we failed to look beyond the next payment, the next quarter, or the next election. A surplus became an excuse to transfer wealth to the wealthy instead of an opportunity to invest in our future. Regulations were gutted for the sake of a quick profit at the expense of a healthy market. People bought homes they knew they couldn’t afford from banks and lenders who pushed those bad loans anyway. And all the while, critical debates and difficult decisions were put off for some other time on some other day.

Well that day of reckoning has arrived, and the time to take charge of our future is here.

Now is the time to act boldly and wisely – to not only revive this economy, but to build a new foundation for lasting prosperity. Now is the time to jumpstart job creation, re-start lending, and invest in areas like energy, health care, and education that will grow our economy, even as we make hard choices to bring our deficit down. That is what my economic agenda is designed to do, and that’s what I’d like to talk to you about tonight.
...
The recovery plan and the financial stability plan are the immediate steps we’re taking to revive our economy in the short-term. But the only way to fully restore America’s economic strength is to make the long-term investments that will lead to new jobs, new industries, and a renewed ability to compete with the rest of the world. The only way this century will be another American century is if we confront at last the price of our dependence on oil and the high cost of health care; the schools that aren’t preparing our children and the mountain of debt they stand to inherit. That is our responsibility.

In the next few days, I will submit a budget to Congress. So often, we have come to view these documents as simply numbers on a page or laundry lists of programs. I see this document differently. I see it as a vision for America – as a blueprint for our future.

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2009 06:23:00 PM

I don't follow consumer confidence very closely because it is a conincident indicator; it tells us what we already know. But with the record low reading today, here are some comments from Asha Bangalore at Northern Trust:

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 25.0 in February vs. 37.4 in January. This is a new record low for the series which dates back to February 1967. The two subcomponents -- Present Situation Index (21.2 vs. 39.7 in January) and the Expectations Index (27.5 vs. 42.5 in January) -- declined in January. The dire economic news in the media nearly every day is bound to be reflected in the consumers’ evaluation of the economy.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the overall consumer confidence index from the Conference Board (graph from Northern Trust).

The Present Situation Index (not shown) is low, but not as low as in some earlier recessions (the Present Situation Index is at 21.2, it fell to 16.2 in 1982). What pulled down the overall index was that the Expectations Index was at an all time low. People are really concerned about the future.

More from Bangalore:

The index measuring if jobs are hard to find advanced (47.8 vs. 41.1 in January) and the index tracking whether jobs are plentiful fell (4.4 vs. 7.1 in January). The gap between the two indexes was wider in February vs. January (see chart 8), which is indicative of another grim employment report.

The employment situation remains grim.

A couple of other notes: those making over over $50,000 per year are now as pessimistic as everyone else - that is pretty unusual - and inflation expectations have increased (something the Fed wants a little of - but not too much).

This really tells us that the economic news is depressing - something we already know.

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2009 05:40:00 PM

From Lisa Ling at KCET. Last year she did an excellent report "Foreclosure Alley". If you missed that one, it is worth watching ... (ht Vincent)

Update: To be clear, below is a new video this month (the link above is for the old video).

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2009 04:05:00 PM

The opposite of cliff diving today ...

Dow up 3.3%

S&P 500 up 3.9%

NASDAQ up 4%

Krugman writes: Mysterious plans

I’m trying to be sympathetic to the various plans, or rumors of plans, for bank aid; but I keep not being able to understand either what the plans are, or why they’re supposed to work. And I don’t think it’s me.

So the latest is that we’re going to convert preferred stock held by the government to common stock, maybe. James Kwak has a good explanation of what that’s all about. And it’s not at all clear what is accomplished thereby.
...
[See Krugman's post]
...
I just don’t get it. And my sinking feeling that the administration plan is to rearrange the deck chairs and hope the iceberg melts just keeps getting stronger.

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2009 02:06:00 PM

From Bloomberg: U.S. Will Take Bank ‘Ownership’ Stakes Only as Losses Climb (ht Anthony)

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the ... Treasury will buy convertible preferred stock as needed in the 19 largest U.S. banks after stress tests to determine how much capital is needed to address losses in a “worse” case scenario, Bernanke told lawmakers at a Senate Banking Committee hearing today. The shares will be converted to common only as the extraordinary losses happen, he said.

“It doesn’t have an ownership implication until such time as those losses which are forecast in the bad scenario actually occur,” the Fed chief said. Bernanke also said that the so- called stress tests that regulators will run on the 19 banks will look at potential losses over a two-year horizon if the economy worsens.

If the banks are seriously insolvent, this sounds like the zombie bank approach and rewards existing shareholders at the expense of taxpayers. If the banks are not seriously insolvent, this is a reasonable approach. But how does Bernanke know the solution before the data is available from the stress tests?

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2009 01:55:00 PM

One more house price post! This one looks at a few selected cities ...

For more, please see:
Case-Shiller: House Prices Decline Sharply in December

House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent, and Price-to-Income (national data)

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Case-Shiller house price indices for five cities. These are nominal graphs (not adjusted for inflation).

This shows the incredible bubbles in Los Angeles and Miami (other cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego had similar price bubbles). Now the prices in these cities are falling quickly.

I included Denver and Cleveland as examples of cities with smaller price bubbles - and prices are falling in those cities too. New York was a special case. Prices held up longer, but are now starting to fall rapidly.

The second graph shows the price-to-rent ratio for Miami, Los Angeles and New York. This is similar to the national price-to-rent ratio, but uses local prices and local Owners' equivalent rent.

This ratio is getting close to normal for LA and Miami (although rents are now falling!), but still has further to go in NY.

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2009 12:15:00 PM

UPDATE: Also check out the charge-off rates. The charge-off rate almost doubled for commercial real estate (CRE) from 1.16% in Q3 to 2.04% in Q4. The commercial banks are starting to recognize their CRE losses!

The Federal Reserve reports that delinquency rates rose sharply in Q4 in all categories.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the delinquency rates at the commercial banks for residential real estate, commercial real estate and consumer credit cards.

Commercial real estate delinquencies are rising rapidly, and are at the highest rate since Q2 '94 (as delinquency rates declined following the S&L crisis).

Residential real estate delinquencies are at the highest level since the Fed started tracking the data (since Q1 '91).

Credit card delinquency rates are now above the previous high in 1991 (the Fed started tracking data in '91).

Although there is credit deterioration everywhere, the rise in these three categories is especially significant. Residential delinquency rates jumped by over 1% from 5.22% to 6.29% - in just Q4! Credit card delinquencies rose from 4.83% to 5.56%, the fastest increase since the Fed started keeping records.

And commercial real estate delinquencies rose from 4.74% to 5.36%. The Fed defines commercial as "construction and land development loans, loans secured by multifamily residences, and loans secured by nonfarm, nonresidential real estate", and many of the problems are probably in the C&D loans. These are the loans that will probably lead to the closure of many regional banks.

Just more evidence of severe credit problems at the commercial banks.