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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"33350"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3877794407384895397"},"published":{"$t":"2024-11-03T09:59:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-11-03T09:59:38.198-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1\/2 to 4 3\/4 percent.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECurrently almost all market participants are expecting a 25bp cut this week.\u0026nbsp; Market participants are also pricing in another 25bp cut in December.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWe expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bp in November\u003C\/b\u003E. ... Chair Powell’s message in the press conference should remain optimistic, particularly given the recent robust data flow. Powell is likely to emphasize data dependence once again, and provide little forward guidance about the policy path.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe continue to expect \u003Cb\u003Ethe FOMC to lower the fed funds rate by 25bp at the November\u003C\/b\u003E and December meetings.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EProjections will \u003Cb\u003ENOT\u003C\/b\u003E be released at this\u0026nbsp;meeting. For\u0026nbsp;review, here are the September\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20240918.htm\"\u003Eprojections\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ESince the last projections were released, \u003Cb\u003Eeconomic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected \u003C\/b\u003E(although there are some \"base effects\" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe FOMC will look through the employment report released Friday because of the impact of hurricanes and the Boeing strike on job gains in October.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe BEA's\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2024\/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-advance-estimate\"\u003Esecond estimate\u003C\/a\u003E for Q3 GDP showed real growth at 2.8% annualized, following 3.0% annualized real growth in Q2, and 1.6% in Q1.\u0026nbsp; Current estimates for Q4 GDP are around 2.6%.\u0026nbsp; That would put real growth in 2024, Q4 over Q4, at 2.5% - well above the top end of the September FOMC projections.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 520px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003EGDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EProjection Date\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2024\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2025\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2026\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2027\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003ESept 2024\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.9 to 2.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.8 to 2.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.9 to 2.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.8 to 2.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EJune 2024\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.9 to 2.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.8 to 2.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.8 to 2.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003Eunemployment rate was at 4.1%\u003C\/a\u003E in October.\u0026nbsp; This is below the low end of the September projections.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E \n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 520px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003EUnemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EProjection Date\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2024\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2025\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2026\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2027\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003ESept 2024\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.3 to 4.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.2 to 4.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.0 to 4.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.0 to 4.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EJune 2024\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.9 to 4.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.9 to 4.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.9 to 4.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAs of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2024\/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2024\"\u003ESeptember 2024\u003C\/a\u003E, PCE inflation increased 2.1 percent year-over-year (YoY). This is below the low end of the September projections.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 520px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003EInflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EProjection Date\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2024\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2025\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2026\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2027\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003ESept 2024\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.2 to 2.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1 to 2.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EJune 2024\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.5 to 2.9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.2 to 2.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.0 to 2.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2024\/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2024\"\u003EPCE core inflation\u003C\/a\u003E increased 2.7 percent YoY in September. This is in the range of FOMC projections for Q4.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 520px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECore Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E \u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EProjection Date\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2024\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2025\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2026\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2027\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003ESept 2024\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.6 to 2.7\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1 to 2.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EJune 2024\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.8 to 3.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.3 to 2.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.0 to 2.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3877794407384895397\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3877794407384895397","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3877794407384895397"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3877794407384895397"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/11\/fomc-preview-fed-to-cut-rates-25bp.html","title":"FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7283052222996370980"},"published":{"$t":"2024-11-03T07:11:00.017-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-11-03T07:11:00.119-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 1st COVID Update: Wastewater Measure Continues to Decline"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg_rmurpcjeO1SlQ0j44Uhr9jFPTsHbebfrP8qkIxt37REE7vuJhYc4UBTe8qTFQO3GIAvUpauK4KoFf6Hoo5tSl6NuqPbNtFFgqmgHNowtg1zHWJ-1ZO1ENL-uppMIyt2WFfoDcfyaXITUepayd7SmNQDREDF_pAc_JZEv_J7smQZK5feOllzt\/s403\/RatesNov120224.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg_rmurpcjeO1SlQ0j44Uhr9jFPTsHbebfrP8qkIxt37REE7vuJhYc4UBTe8qTFQO3GIAvUpauK4KoFf6Hoo5tSl6NuqPbNtFFgqmgHNowtg1zHWJ-1ZO1ENL-uppMIyt2WFfoDcfyaXITUepayd7SmNQDREDF_pAc_JZEv_J7smQZK5feOllzt\/s320\/RatesNov120224.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: \"\u003Ci\u003EEffective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u0026nbsp; So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E905\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E985\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiRs6-xMyNJAxzX13pyQZ-u-mRsyJg5Um7dge14WrUN_Rs4QThK4p2uxkDQH3Hf6Rx_SV-qfmwJKUlZlYmPQ15_5AwN99tYVv12Ys4drIilPZYnyLpHtTePmd7ybFN2Jsgl7U6zuc3vsz6A1WxFwwGysqiPBiKQc4msGFjctOb8HKUqgkd5DV_p\/s1221\/COVIDOct262024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiRs6-xMyNJAxzX13pyQZ-u-mRsyJg5Um7dge14WrUN_Rs4QThK4p2uxkDQH3Hf6Rx_SV-qfmwJKUlZlYmPQ15_5AwN99tYVv12Ys4drIilPZYnyLpHtTePmd7ybFN2Jsgl7U6zuc3vsz6A1WxFwwGysqiPBiKQc4msGFjctOb8HKUqgkd5DV_p\/s320\/COVIDOct262024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAlthough weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWeekly deaths are triple the low of 302 in early June but are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAnd here is a graph I'm following concerning\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nwss\/rv\/COVID19-nationaltrend.html\"\u003ECOVID in wastewater\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;as of October 31st:\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjotIfu1LDXJRqQV4PZZxDIKzxGnsWKyWPa8npEw1bVsyLPJPg4xpL3WN4493y9DuguzKAtPTn8K49e34rvkVyl7lz-31SnALXpCwM3IAb7k3ZBK_OJXr7Dhr633TPhLsXpVsq4MFWLDy2hgBNb3J505f-hgx_mdWkaxfDzv0wEsmX-okn8Iwup\/s960\/COVIDWasteOct312024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Wastewater\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjotIfu1LDXJRqQV4PZZxDIKzxGnsWKyWPa8npEw1bVsyLPJPg4xpL3WN4493y9DuguzKAtPTn8K49e34rvkVyl7lz-31SnALXpCwM3IAb7k3ZBK_OJXr7Dhr633TPhLsXpVsq4MFWLDy2hgBNb3J505f-hgx_mdWkaxfDzv0wEsmX-okn8Iwup\/s320\/COVIDWasteOct312024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003EThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECOVID in wastewater is declining - only about 50% higher than the lows of last May - suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7283052222996370980\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7283052222996370980","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7283052222996370980"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7283052222996370980"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/11\/november-1st-covid-update-wastewater.html","title":"November 1st COVID Update: Wastewater Measure Continues to Decline"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg_rmurpcjeO1SlQ0j44Uhr9jFPTsHbebfrP8qkIxt37REE7vuJhYc4UBTe8qTFQO3GIAvUpauK4KoFf6Hoo5tSl6NuqPbNtFFgqmgHNowtg1zHWJ-1ZO1ENL-uppMIyt2WFfoDcfyaXITUepayd7SmNQDREDF_pAc_JZEv_J7smQZK5feOllzt\/s72-c\/RatesNov120224.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3374245333692604652"},"published":{"$t":"2024-11-02T14:11:00.017-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-11-02T14:11:00.122-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5ywp3IDKuetcw4aqRL7jzu5MWsKdxIGAHgmIjoNx-FHOe3YBzQojrRtfm-VnXR9ef7rGP670G4jldF_NXwPtI-6RWA0wHOsqiBTomhMP7JssmTfFoNQD7WOmywPHjeQLZkpppJ5hcPy_UmnHgjkz6cfcc5Cx_Pm27jV2e5xtM5LoaeQOn9Mdo\/s1024\/CSYoYAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5ywp3IDKuetcw4aqRL7jzu5MWsKdxIGAHgmIjoNx-FHOe3YBzQojrRtfm-VnXR9ef7rGP670G4jldF_NXwPtI-6RWA0wHOsqiBTomhMP7JssmTfFoNQD7WOmywPHjeQLZkpppJ5hcPy_UmnHgjkz6cfcc5Cx_Pm27jV2e5xtM5LoaeQOn9Mdo\/s320\/CSYoYAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-bdd\"\u003ECase-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-96a\"\u003EFannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-15-729\"\u003EInflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-4e0\"\u003EFreddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-mortgage-rates-have-surged\"\u003ELawler: Mortgage Rates Have Surged Since the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates Last Month\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/a-proposal-to-address-the-housing\"\u003EA Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3374245333692604652\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3374245333692604652","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3374245333692604652"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3374245333692604652"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/11\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5ywp3IDKuetcw4aqRL7jzu5MWsKdxIGAHgmIjoNx-FHOe3YBzQojrRtfm-VnXR9ef7rGP670G4jldF_NXwPtI-6RWA0wHOsqiBTomhMP7JssmTfFoNQD7WOmywPHjeQLZkpppJ5hcPy_UmnHgjkz6cfcc5Cx_Pm27jV2e5xtM5LoaeQOn9Mdo\/s72-c\/CSYoYAug2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-70024861276249596"},"published":{"$t":"2024-11-02T08:11:00.047-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-11-02T08:11:00.121-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of November 3, 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, November 4th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNo major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, November 5th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAll day: \u003Cb\u003EU.S. Election\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhvUkh7oLb1lBXDYgea6Z6ZMEkKTkMs8_IOkf0Loe7J2n1uVPc0s27-aMkKH8xd-PUcGzbr9QszKN2ya4LQMS3GMOdCduEFd-utuuEpSA31fSbXbOdPasO0K45JV97TxVM5wAPYaCiVUyio7uFDc5Dha9NDfemBM3T_RTNs6-__y3BJ5Ps1hBQD\/s1012\/TradeDeficitAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Deficit\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhvUkh7oLb1lBXDYgea6Z6ZMEkKTkMs8_IOkf0Loe7J2n1uVPc0s27-aMkKH8xd-PUcGzbr9QszKN2ya4LQMS3GMOdCduEFd-utuuEpSA31fSbXbOdPasO0K45JV97TxVM5wAPYaCiVUyio7uFDc5Dha9NDfemBM3T_RTNs6-__y3BJ5Ps1hBQD\/s320\/TradeDeficitAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ETrade Balance report\u003C\/b\u003E for September from the Census Bureau.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for the deficit to be $73.5 billion in September, from $70.4 billion in August.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for a decrease to 53.3 from 54.9.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, November 6th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, November 7th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.  The consensus is for 224 thousand initial claims, up from 216 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Meeting Announcement\u003C\/b\u003E. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:30 PM: \u003Cb\u003EFed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, November 8th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Preliminary for November)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/70024861276249596\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=70024861276249596","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/70024861276249596"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/70024861276249596"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/11\/schedule-for-week-of-november-3-2024.html","title":"Schedule for Week of November 3, 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhvUkh7oLb1lBXDYgea6Z6ZMEkKTkMs8_IOkf0Loe7J2n1uVPc0s27-aMkKH8xd-PUcGzbr9QszKN2ya4LQMS3GMOdCduEFd-utuuEpSA31fSbXbOdPasO0K45JV97TxVM5wAPYaCiVUyio7uFDc5Dha9NDfemBM3T_RTNs6-__y3BJ5Ps1hBQD\/s72-c\/TradeDeficitAug2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2495088885595202848"},"published":{"$t":"2024-11-01T09:10:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-11-01T09:10:16.041-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-15-729\"\u003EInflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EIt has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-bdd\"\u003EAugust Case-Shiller house price index\u003C\/a\u003E on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 75% above the bubble peak in 2006.\u0026nbsp;However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak\u0026nbsp;(and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).\u0026nbsp; The composite 20, in real terms, is 3% above the bubble peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nPeople usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.\u0026nbsp; As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $433,000 today adjusted for inflation (44% increase).\u0026nbsp; That is why the second graph below is important - this shows\u0026nbsp;\"real\" prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjoODYw9QOd3lG2-BCLHIjHPquv6j8tY-_zuY_E9vvZ75PsxYrW8XYuY10RhwdN30TtzPlKCYrlx1BV-ZutfVIHXbTw_tdX2ztPOCyVtONx1bLpH6xg2wD7HLUmKyvZKyremxecYPnWx8u_7AHe2LwyzYJTdcSC_ZkNTupC77cGijCtO5MXPu53\/s939\/RealAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Real House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjoODYw9QOd3lG2-BCLHIjHPquv6j8tY-_zuY_E9vvZ75PsxYrW8XYuY10RhwdN30TtzPlKCYrlx1BV-ZutfVIHXbTw_tdX2ztPOCyVtONx1bLpH6xg2wD7HLUmKyvZKyremxecYPnWx8u_7AHe2LwyzYJTdcSC_ZkNTupC77cGijCtO5MXPu53\/s320\/RealAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.5% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 1.6% below the recent peak in 2022. Both indexes increased in August in real terms. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIt has now been 27 months since the real peak in house prices.  Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/house-prices-7-years-in-purgatory\"\u003EHouse Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2495088885595202848\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2495088885595202848","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2495088885595202848"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2495088885595202848"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/11\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-15.html","title":"Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjoODYw9QOd3lG2-BCLHIjHPquv6j8tY-_zuY_E9vvZ75PsxYrW8XYuY10RhwdN30TtzPlKCYrlx1BV-ZutfVIHXbTw_tdX2ztPOCyVtONx1bLpH6xg2wD7HLUmKyvZKyremxecYPnWx8u_7AHe2LwyzYJTdcSC_ZkNTupC77cGijCtO5MXPu53\/s72-c\/RealAug2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2176774789571801587"},"published":{"$t":"2024-11-01T09:07:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-11-01T09:07:34.577-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on October Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EEarlier: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/11\/october-employment-report-12-thousand.html\"\u003EOctober Employment Report: 12 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003ESeasonal Retail Hiring\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nTypically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj8VTr1Bv3xWWrU828aGRXYYFIx5sL8ei_hWbkSY2zeXoqtg3AQvQivO0Qn8D65QsAQt8ohlU_f7cPIyEdK_96-ysqnU7FTrTL2aDvrBn05rYzjWBgF59BEeWSWIkfKVByodVpZwMi9SV2RawydD-KLvoBCd0i4dD3U8ofGslZTN4dUIydNNTk2\/s1163\/RetailHiringOct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Seasonal Retail Hiring\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj8VTr1Bv3xWWrU828aGRXYYFIx5sL8ei_hWbkSY2zeXoqtg3AQvQivO0Qn8D65QsAQt8ohlU_f7cPIyEdK_96-ysqnU7FTrTL2aDvrBn05rYzjWBgF59BEeWSWIkfKVByodVpZwMi9SV2RawydD-KLvoBCd0i4dD3U8ofGslZTN4dUIydNNTk2\/s320\/RetailHiringOct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008.  Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nRetailers hired 125 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in October.\u0026nbsp; This was lower than last year and suggests slightly less real retail sales this holiday season as last year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a loss of 6.4 thousand retail jobs in October.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Cb\u003EPrime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEggstWxGUd3Z4XA7-Yhm16ldRO6C9AY3hdd8G9RocQ9N_5QXeFpDe3KvUxLGIs4GlwcMOMHB6qzgOpW2PKBYxtPcTskt5kfnaS79JuRCTRkGVkljmXYo1lbfsxuMACHbbazT_JAOjhjMkj8n2D7GKzBC-Mi2igDBdv73Rc8svEybajXdSvrqHQW\/s1062\/EmployPop2554Oct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEggstWxGUd3Z4XA7-Yhm16ldRO6C9AY3hdd8G9RocQ9N_5QXeFpDe3KvUxLGIs4GlwcMOMHB6qzgOpW2PKBYxtPcTskt5kfnaS79JuRCTRkGVkljmXYo1lbfsxuMACHbbazT_JAOjhjMkj8n2D7GKzBC-Mi2igDBdv73Rc8svEybajXdSvrqHQW\/s320\/EmployPop2554Oct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ESince the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in October to 83.5% from 83.8% in September.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.6% from 80.9% the previous month.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBoth are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EAverage Hourly Wages\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgApCr3nuwQwZAWzpHbAjazUhOh_G7dzV8_CX3FperJ88VpK44SOlaOSL-m31xsX23nsACbGd-DD5BynDwM4kiQywmlZSr7W-gXO3nsT_tlLHN_zvjph5RBpf9fn6oP3FQZZkcdXwjLSByHbjnYFJslGQ5_-b6HMLyXDxHf8k5PMdSdYqK998G3\/s865\/WagesOct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Wages\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgApCr3nuwQwZAWzpHbAjazUhOh_G7dzV8_CX3FperJ88VpK44SOlaOSL-m31xsX23nsACbGd-DD5BynDwM4kiQywmlZSr7W-gXO3nsT_tlLHN_zvjph5RBpf9fn6oP3FQZZkcdXwjLSByHbjnYFJslGQ5_-b6HMLyXDxHf8k5PMdSdYqK998G3\/s320\/WagesOct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in \"Average Hourly Earnings\" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the\u0026nbsp;pandemic related spike reversed a year later.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E \nWage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in October.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EPart Time for Economic Reasons\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjp4NPgEyiPLvkgomvv3A9VoCK4fiKbzrimtF3A_PxPeHTRX2OWD3-d1cV4whcYCiMMSFDl_ZVpkisqk92ejK-UDykwtsM-0uPyX2dUi07XgN3Uy-KLopjSi_fV9LpvcJBjC8Ng-jBecSQeadqYRJ5jR9KgtygXoWrdJgYEv3MOypvK_VtN2L5n\/s1020\/PartTimeOct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Part Time Workers\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjp4NPgEyiPLvkgomvv3A9VoCK4fiKbzrimtF3A_PxPeHTRX2OWD3-d1cV4whcYCiMMSFDl_ZVpkisqk92ejK-UDykwtsM-0uPyX2dUi07XgN3Uy-KLopjSi_fV9LpvcJBjC8Ng-jBecSQeadqYRJ5jR9KgtygXoWrdJgYEv3MOypvK_VtN2L5n\/s320\/PartTimeOct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFrom the BLS \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\n\"\u003Ci\u003EThe number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million\nin October. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part\ntime because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 million from 4.62 million in September.\u0026nbsp; This is above the pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThese workers are included in the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.t15.htm\"\u003Ealternate measure\u003C\/a\u003E of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.7% from 7.7% in the previous month.  This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994).  This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EUnemployed over 26 Weeks\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhymvktv0V10aNwd7bShXcqv3kR2tyTRlc7BG7zPxF6E_g7nQkSywMG3a1AHqQk6rezqURjVIxb44frYFs5Ps_JlO8Vin-vxUwH8wB7_lFZvqlXX8zz2VpA5WL8_Ont1qKT_KT7viGKIqOrCmygFNCIvyp0pPAioIclg2wV5-ZSDqx1RhjcOH3a\/s1018\/Unemploy26Oct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Unemployed Over 26 Weeks\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhymvktv0V10aNwd7bShXcqv3kR2tyTRlc7BG7zPxF6E_g7nQkSywMG3a1AHqQk6rezqURjVIxb44frYFs5Ps_JlO8Vin-vxUwH8wB7_lFZvqlXX8zz2VpA5WL8_Ont1qKT_KT7viGKIqOrCmygFNCIvyp0pPAioIclg2wV5-ZSDqx1RhjcOH3a\/s320\/Unemploy26Oct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the BLS, there are 1.61 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, essentialy unchanged from 1.63 million the previous month.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is above pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EJob Streak\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThrough October 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 46 consecutive months, putting the current streak in a tie for 3rd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).\u0026nbsp; It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 320px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"3\"\u003EHeadline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYear Ended\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EStreak, Months\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2019\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E100\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1990\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E48\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3 tie\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2007\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E46\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E3 tie\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E2024\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E46\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1979\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E45\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6 tie\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1943\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E33\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6 tie\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1986\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E33\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6 tie\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E33\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1967\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E29\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1995\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E25\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"3\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003ECurrrent Streak\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Cb\u003ESummary:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis report was impacted by strikes (especially Boeing) and the hurricanes.\u0026nbsp; This makes interpreting this report difficult.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2176774789571801587\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2176774789571801587","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2176774789571801587"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2176774789571801587"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/11\/comments-on-october-employment-report.html","title":"Comments on October Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj8VTr1Bv3xWWrU828aGRXYYFIx5sL8ei_hWbkSY2zeXoqtg3AQvQivO0Qn8D65QsAQt8ohlU_f7cPIyEdK_96-ysqnU7FTrTL2aDvrBn05rYzjWBgF59BEeWSWIkfKVByodVpZwMi9SV2RawydD-KLvoBCd0i4dD3U8ofGslZTN4dUIydNNTk2\/s72-c\/RetailHiringOct2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3020231743409363067"},"published":{"$t":"2024-11-01T08:30:00.048-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-11-01T08:41:32.490-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"October Employment Report: 12 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the BLS: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003EEmployment Situation\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETotal nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the\nunemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported\ntoday. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services\nlost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from\n+159,000 to +78,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to\n+223,000. With these revisions, \u003Cb\u003Eemployment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower\nthan previously reported.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjt4f9l3L9rtuTxMOAVrNJbH4jUP5cfqesHweCVqYdIXI7pMZWnfpPAcrhNZc0Fomb74oUyKoDHhyKPt8gr6yXTRH3Bue6hdqEGxEQ6ohSUIGzZEVUbQnx78hHVVd9ZNgkvfoHCdYkC5JXQMT9O0iKIqKdIMEk4fcqbe_XDysJvTcxIxmrc9FSe\/s995\/JobsOct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment per month\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjt4f9l3L9rtuTxMOAVrNJbH4jUP5cfqesHweCVqYdIXI7pMZWnfpPAcrhNZc0Fomb74oUyKoDHhyKPt8gr6yXTRH3Bue6hdqEGxEQ6ohSUIGzZEVUbQnx78hHVVd9ZNgkvfoHCdYkC5JXQMT9O0iKIqKdIMEk4fcqbe_XDysJvTcxIxmrc9FSe\/s320\/JobsOct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ETotal payrolls increased by 12 thousand in October.\u0026nbsp; Private payrolls decreased by 28 thousand, and public payrolls increased 40 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPayrolls for August and September were revised down 112 thousand, combined.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj3Z53hPPFSLyvFf7sH1f0PUe_iCGjcKyFMxzX6BGsPFB3qAPqBtWowX86CwNLpunNofU4DJOqh_AvrhyphenhyphenQ1qQqAKOdcQFnHvv64RLRN9wLIS30SGR2N4BXf3xsP1RqG3CPenTahLId0aUN2Ms7-xNhD6WkTu7OH9blLfTNfnSaPZuZCh65j5mi1\/s1129\/EmployYoYOct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj3Z53hPPFSLyvFf7sH1f0PUe_iCGjcKyFMxzX6BGsPFB3qAPqBtWowX86CwNLpunNofU4DJOqh_AvrhyphenhyphenQ1qQqAKOdcQFnHvv64RLRN9wLIS30SGR2N4BXf3xsP1RqG3CPenTahLId0aUN2Ms7-xNhD6WkTu7OH9blLfTNfnSaPZuZCh65j5mi1\/s320\/EmployYoYOct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\nThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn October, the year-over-year change was 2.17 million jobs.\u0026nbsp; Employment was up solidly year-over-year (Although the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/web\/empsit\/cesprelbmk.htm\"\u003Eannual benchmark revision\u003C\/a\u003E will lower the year-over-year change).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiedTZmskAyiamIeVpRFX864HzPLmUglilyuXTBD51WFPyW6RmEtlB3G_r2VsTxWsj3pxogSxa-AIj5uM8AqmodHXKTfN5TCBILKP-lUoMP1hs2LEOroW4uk-FY32bJ_VDoUE-WonVI9gB06pqpzndg0kn7puX98gARyQP65HIbv3P1kW48yyvW\/s1060\/EMployPopOct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiedTZmskAyiamIeVpRFX864HzPLmUglilyuXTBD51WFPyW6RmEtlB3G_r2VsTxWsj3pxogSxa-AIj5uM8AqmodHXKTfN5TCBILKP-lUoMP1hs2LEOroW4uk-FY32bJ_VDoUE-WonVI9gB06pqpzndg0kn7puX98gARyQP65HIbv3P1kW48yyvW\/s320\/EMployPopOct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\nThe Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.6% in October, from 62.7% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.0% from 60.2% in September (blue line).\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEho4wc4fppFrdQeX_Y5I0h5JOfsV0EnPBKuY_tkDaQZ5vdLKLyyXEB4LTRNCl3JcPXIKl9Z5CXEoyeC7XDhOVyoRkmex1qEvxDmg59xzcX7l6HNSxDoVnfm9bCzWa2jo8z0HrrbhhK4E84l7uCJC8aZUYkmgvZtf6ig4D2XSO8ooDwIhDF9mZbf\/s1013\/UnemployOct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"unemployment rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEho4wc4fppFrdQeX_Y5I0h5JOfsV0EnPBKuY_tkDaQZ5vdLKLyyXEB4LTRNCl3JcPXIKl9Z5CXEoyeC7XDhOVyoRkmex1qEvxDmg59xzcX7l6HNSxDoVnfm9bCzWa2jo8z0HrrbhhK4E84l7uCJC8aZUYkmgvZtf6ig4D2XSO8ooDwIhDF9mZbf\/s320\/UnemployOct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% in October from 4.1% in September. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was below consensus expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis report was impacted by strikes and hurricanes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EI'll have more later ...\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3020231743409363067\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3020231743409363067","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3020231743409363067"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3020231743409363067"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/11\/october-employment-report-12-thousand.html","title":"October Employment Report: 12 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjt4f9l3L9rtuTxMOAVrNJbH4jUP5cfqesHweCVqYdIXI7pMZWnfpPAcrhNZc0Fomb74oUyKoDHhyKPt8gr6yXTRH3Bue6hdqEGxEQ6ohSUIGzZEVUbQnx78hHVVd9ZNgkvfoHCdYkC5JXQMT9O0iKIqKdIMEk4fcqbe_XDysJvTcxIxmrc9FSe\/s72-c\/JobsOct2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4743004458272392797"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-31T20:01:00.007-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-31T20:01:00.114-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Employment Report, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgHzUh2DOVNCnrCCZtDUz49wLhDEBE9pWLtS1PDOusoEmLpaFW0-kya8BoDidqOpGbErJoQ2SpOexxfVjhBzlk1_kHWagJr5V4m1PueoS5f4dAVOSIRuR2azDKwN-vAnVPdhzqGGF5k3izCoubiSkf3ZPDRD5tza2Nbh65E0BCuZ9xN89yN-csZ\/s402\/RatesOct312024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgHzUh2DOVNCnrCCZtDUz49wLhDEBE9pWLtS1PDOusoEmLpaFW0-kya8BoDidqOpGbErJoQ2SpOexxfVjhBzlk1_kHWagJr5V4m1PueoS5f4dAVOSIRuR2azDKwN-vAnVPdhzqGGF5k3izCoubiSkf3ZPDRD5tza2Nbh65E0BCuZ9xN89yN-csZ\/s320\/RatesOct312024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for October. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 120,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 47.6, up from 47.2.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for September.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for no change in spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• All day, \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for October. "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4743004458272392797\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4743004458272392797","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4743004458272392797"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4743004458272392797"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/friday-employment-report-ism-mfg.html","title":"Friday: Employment Report, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgHzUh2DOVNCnrCCZtDUz49wLhDEBE9pWLtS1PDOusoEmLpaFW0-kya8BoDidqOpGbErJoQ2SpOexxfVjhBzlk1_kHWagJr5V4m1PueoS5f4dAVOSIRuR2azDKwN-vAnVPdhzqGGF5k3izCoubiSkf3ZPDRD5tza2Nbh65E0BCuZ9xN89yN-csZ\/s72-c\/RatesOct312024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8456000695945430320"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-31T16:41:00.016-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-31T16:41:00.225-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003EWhat this means:\u003C\/b\u003E On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings.  On a monthly basis, they report total inventory.  For September, Realtor.com \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/september-2024-data\/\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u0026nbsp;Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 27.6% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003ERealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-october-26-2024\/\"\u003EWeekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Oct. 26, 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EActive inventory increased, with for-sale homes 27.6% above year-ago levels.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor the 51st consecutive weeks dating back to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year-over-year. This week’s growth was lower than last week’s, the fifth week of slowing growth, and the lowest annual change since April. Much of the inventory build up is due to more seller activity than buyer activity. However, if mortgage rates keep rising in the short term, we could see a decline in both seller and buyer activity.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Cb\u003ENew listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale-increased 0.7% this week compared to one year ago.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe number of new listings on the market was lower than the same week last year. The recent upward trajectory of mortgage rates could largely discourage sellers from listing their homes ...\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhhADgkpmL0rRnLOWbuncjLoAm2R0A_dz-d8xPjvDaT-4KkepsZLDiTukayrAJtlj3HlGw_gi1SgB9t4Mi3ONyitYeZDk-_EyIV4tlU_R0_cNBj22ZEZBgrY_mq-eHS8NdcdR8obwbKJNZnD4232nrfRYyCEZku92lfZoEDciPqe8cbUzfB3GZy\/s1018\/RealtorOct312024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Realtor YoY Active Listings\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhhADgkpmL0rRnLOWbuncjLoAm2R0A_dz-d8xPjvDaT-4KkepsZLDiTukayrAJtlj3HlGw_gi1SgB9t4Mi3ONyitYeZDk-_EyIV4tlU_R0_cNBj22ZEZBgrY_mq-eHS8NdcdR8obwbKJNZnD4232nrfRYyCEZku92lfZoEDciPqe8cbUzfB3GZy\/s320\/RealtorOct312024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003Erealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory was up year-over-year for the 51st consecutive week.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHowever, inventory is still historically low.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENew listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.\u003C\/div\u003E \u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8456000695945430320\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8456000695945430320","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8456000695945430320"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8456000695945430320"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/realtorcom-reports-active-inventory-up_02129543816.html","title":"Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhhADgkpmL0rRnLOWbuncjLoAm2R0A_dz-d8xPjvDaT-4KkepsZLDiTukayrAJtlj3HlGw_gi1SgB9t4Mi3ONyitYeZDk-_EyIV4tlU_R0_cNBj22ZEZBgrY_mq-eHS8NdcdR8obwbKJNZnD4232nrfRYyCEZku92lfZoEDciPqe8cbUzfB3GZy\/s72-c\/RealtorOct312024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9015289584488414219"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-31T14:55:00.005-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-31T14:55:00.112-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"October Employment Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October.  The consensus is for 120,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThere were 254,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe expect \u003Cb\u003Enonfarm payrolls to rise by 100k in Oct\u003C\/b\u003E after coming in at 254k in Sep. ... the u-rate should move back up to 4.2%, in part due to hurricane distortions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nFrom Goldman Sachs: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWe estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 95k in October\u003C\/b\u003E, below consensus of +105k and the three-month average of +186k. Alternative measures of employment growth were mixed, and strikes and the recent hurricanes likely weighed on payrolls growth this month. ... We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, in line with consensus.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EADP Report:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/\"\u003EADP employment report\u003C\/a\u003E showed 233,000 private sector jobs were added in October.\u0026nbsp; This was well above consensus forecasts and suggests job gains above consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report (this also doesn't include the Boeing strike and probably misses some of the hurricane impact).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EISM Surveys:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes \u003Cb\u003Ebased on the number of firms hiring\u003C\/b\u003E (not the number of hires).\u0026nbsp; The indexes will be released after the employment report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EUnemployment Claims:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_31.html\"\u003Eweekly claims report\u003C\/a\u003E showed more initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 242,000 in October compared to 222,000 in September.\u0026nbsp; This suggests more layoffs in October compared to September (likely due to hurricanes).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EStrikes:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/ces-strike-report-strikes-will.html\"\u003ECES strike report\u003C\/a\u003E shows 41,000 additional employees on strike during the reference period in October.  This will reduce the headline jobs number.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EHurricane Impact:\u003C\/b\u003E Analysts are trying to estimate the distortion from Hurrican Milton.\u0026nbsp; In September 2005, the initial BLS report showed a loss of 35 thousand jobs due to the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Katrina hit in late August, and Rita during the reference period in September).\u0026nbsp; This was eventually revised to a gain of 57 thousand (still well below the average for the year of 210 thousand per month.\u0026nbsp; Milton also made landfall during the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cps\/definitions.htm#refweek\"\u003Ereference period\u003C\/a\u003E, so the BLS will try to adjust for impact.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EConclusion: \u003C\/b\u003EEmployment gains have average 167 thousand over the last 6 months.  Subtracting 41 thousand for the strikes, and maybe 50 thousand for the hurricane impact would suggest employment gains will be below consensus expectations.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9015289584488414219\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9015289584488414219","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9015289584488414219"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9015289584488414219"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/october-employment-preview.html","title":"October Employment Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5486805176396127930"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-31T11:32:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-31T11:32:00.822-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-4e0\"\u003EFreddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EFreddie Mac reported that its \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/research\/indices\/house-price-index\"\u003E“National” Home Price Index (FMHPI)\u003C\/a\u003E increased 0.28% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in September. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.6% in September, down from up 4.0% YoY in August.\u0026nbsp; The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEidJ_soKn3Vy3D2OWZ6L7D3PdVZEIHr-kmWlnChlWPU2MSqg5pYzrRBF41CO00QprxslmYOgvJFnUUvH3emb6LTXrqFCbjjN0iWQqSuX32cIuqoVEA3ULpCzMIckLy3oOQ7_gL8seKKu18jD3vDno4smpSwxM50VsQN5YOjQMJ6sRxskk5f5_IK\/s802\/FMHPICitiesSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Freddie HPI CBSA\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEidJ_soKn3Vy3D2OWZ6L7D3PdVZEIHr-kmWlnChlWPU2MSqg5pYzrRBF41CO00QprxslmYOgvJFnUUvH3emb6LTXrqFCbjjN0iWQqSuX32cIuqoVEA3ULpCzMIckLy3oOQ7_gL8seKKu18jD3vDno4smpSwxM50VsQN5YOjQMJ6sRxskk5f5_IK\/s320\/FMHPICitiesSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAs of September, 11 states were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Florida (-2.2%), Louisiana (-1.8%), Arizona (-1.7%), North Carolina (-1.5), and Arkansas (-1.3%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. \u003Cb\u003EHowever, 17 of the 30 worst performing cities are now in Florida!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd 9 of the 12 worst performing cities are in Florida.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5486805176396127930\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5486805176396127930","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5486805176396127930"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5486805176396127930"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased.html","title":"Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEidJ_soKn3Vy3D2OWZ6L7D3PdVZEIHr-kmWlnChlWPU2MSqg5pYzrRBF41CO00QprxslmYOgvJFnUUvH3emb6LTXrqFCbjjN0iWQqSuX32cIuqoVEA3ULpCzMIckLy3oOQ7_gL8seKKu18jD3vDno4smpSwxM50VsQN5YOjQMJ6sRxskk5f5_IK\/s72-c\/FMHPICitiesSept2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6105290457734859608"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-31T08:40:00.024-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-31T08:45:16.527-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Personal Income increased 0.3% in September; Spending increased 0.5%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The BEA released the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2024\/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2024\"\u003EPersonal Income and Outlays\u003C\/a\u003E report for September: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPersonal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September,\u003C\/b\u003E according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $57.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.8 billion (0.5 percent).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nThe PCE price index increased 0.2 percent\u003C\/b\u003E. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in September and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.7 percent and services increased 0.2 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nThe September\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003EPCE price index increased 2.1 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 2.3 percent YoY in August, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.7 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.7 percent in August, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2024 (2017 dollars). \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003ENote that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change\u003C\/span\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjS1F-XifI1085d7R0aRUMTJHIx7cprrJwtZ2rjyGWweYBjeJfqv764kroWTRU31fzI539BkyxJmJxDIDPT1NanKQifvNN9Fxy40PTznO2EK_5mKfS98QGPPL-Q0qa2jwLR8WUtsatcBGSqzaAxmo6M13Rl8_-_MTelrWWS7xwai4uU4c2uQ7Q1\/s1177\/PCESept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Personal Consumption Expenditures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjS1F-XifI1085d7R0aRUMTJHIx7cprrJwtZ2rjyGWweYBjeJfqv764kroWTRU31fzI539BkyxJmJxDIDPT1NanKQifvNN9Fxy40PTznO2EK_5mKfS98QGPPL-Q0qa2jwLR8WUtsatcBGSqzaAxmo6M13Rl8_-_MTelrWWS7xwai4uU4c2uQ7Q1\/s320\/PCESept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nPersonal income was slightly below expectations, and PCE was slightly above expectations.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EInflation was close to expectations.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6105290457734859608\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6105290457734859608","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6105290457734859608"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6105290457734859608"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/personal-income-increased-03-in.html","title":"Personal Income increased 0.3% in September; Spending increased 0.5%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjS1F-XifI1085d7R0aRUMTJHIx7cprrJwtZ2rjyGWweYBjeJfqv764kroWTRU31fzI539BkyxJmJxDIDPT1NanKQifvNN9Fxy40PTznO2EK_5mKfS98QGPPL-Q0qa2jwLR8WUtsatcBGSqzaAxmo6M13Rl8_-_MTelrWWS7xwai4uU4c2uQ7Q1\/s72-c\/PCESept2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-387408313757023673"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-31T08:30:00.010-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-31T08:36:03.254-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nIn the week ending October 26, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000\u003C\/b\u003E, a decrease of \n12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to \n228,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,500, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The \nprevious week's average was revised up by 250 from 238,500 to 238,750. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh4cwgXz-g-nl4dRuojaZaaIvMVsjbGln1FCEdiOGQexDZ2emnGiCOALCBelZeiMPonWoUhgKFk9hcr1_T-y5kN05MIBKDusptR_8yWu_M8ZCa96sVbDjXAw4IOhT49_h84UJHSDVujY4PnGtZ-FX3FKl1o5JltYC6J8j4yYO6vuW7alaxR7MYy\/s1081\/WeeklyClaimsOct312024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh4cwgXz-g-nl4dRuojaZaaIvMVsjbGln1FCEdiOGQexDZ2emnGiCOALCBelZeiMPonWoUhgKFk9hcr1_T-y5kN05MIBKDusptR_8yWu_M8ZCa96sVbDjXAw4IOhT49_h84UJHSDVujY4PnGtZ-FX3FKl1o5JltYC6J8j4yYO6vuW7alaxR7MYy\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsOct312024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 236,500.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWeekly claims were below the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/387408313757023673\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=387408313757023673","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/387408313757023673"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/387408313757023673"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_31.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh4cwgXz-g-nl4dRuojaZaaIvMVsjbGln1FCEdiOGQexDZ2emnGiCOALCBelZeiMPonWoUhgKFk9hcr1_T-y5kN05MIBKDusptR_8yWu_M8ZCa96sVbDjXAw4IOhT49_h84UJHSDVujY4PnGtZ-FX3FKl1o5JltYC6J8j4yYO6vuW7alaxR7MYy\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsOct312024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9196667846492929392"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-30T20:05:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-30T20:05:00.117-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays, Unemployment Claims"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh50M_FYMsR0Dj83pXeSXK0XPD2-O08U5xt2j_zLZpRu6uyuvWmWCPW0tEDRMXjcty4GsiIQ9vI9ZV-5lJHJAgDHxd76M2hvi3b32fzIBtqz-jzEHfPzB-7vJIsifWcvsbvnlZWcg6c9bw-biOIR5AyqvtF3rUQtmCOcMcVTeBdQZVfzZsMOQLt\/s399\/RatesOct302024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh50M_FYMsR0Dj83pXeSXK0XPD2-O08U5xt2j_zLZpRu6uyuvWmWCPW0tEDRMXjcty4GsiIQ9vI9ZV-5lJHJAgDHxd76M2hvi3b32fzIBtqz-jzEHfPzB-7vJIsifWcvsbvnlZWcg6c9bw-biOIR5AyqvtF3rUQtmCOcMcVTeBdQZVfzZsMOQLt\/s320\/RatesOct302024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.  The consensus is for 230 thousand initial claims, up from 227 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EPersonal Income and Outlays\u003C\/b\u003E for September.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending.  And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.1% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.6% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 9:45 AM, \u003Cb\u003EChicago Purchasing Managers Index\u003C\/b\u003E for October. The consensus is for a reading of 46.0, down from 46.6 in September."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9196667846492929392\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9196667846492929392","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9196667846492929392"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9196667846492929392"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/thursday-personal-income-and-outlays.html","title":"Thursday: Personal Income and Outlays, Unemployment Claims"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh50M_FYMsR0Dj83pXeSXK0XPD2-O08U5xt2j_zLZpRu6uyuvWmWCPW0tEDRMXjcty4GsiIQ9vI9ZV-5lJHJAgDHxd76M2hvi3b32fzIBtqz-jzEHfPzB-7vJIsifWcvsbvnlZWcg6c9bw-biOIR5AyqvtF3rUQtmCOcMcVTeBdQZVfzZsMOQLt\/s72-c\/RatesOct302024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6213194991082117893"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-30T12:38:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-30T12:38:42.437-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-96a\"\u003EFannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ESingle-family serious delinquencies increased slightly in September, and multi-family serious delinquencies increased.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nFreddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.54%, up from 0.52% August. Freddie's rate is down slightly year-over-year from 0.55% in September 2023.\u0026nbsp; This is below the pre-pandemic lows.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgjCFFyJrr3p03jMy1nAjdv0Ax8wn4Z0DpPLIuJ8dFpFzcTAk87gnh1jLSdiWTB5o_sQY23ipfkqcsJv0vPK8ThVDpdmShemBQl4tCUZTDzA1y3OgqQpqXGvba-OWjLaRv_Ye2hivIWN6AKrD1m2h-TvteOr7Fb47fNsbiAr0pDp89rkx5tLfFb\/s943\/FannieFreddieSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Fannie Freddie Serious Deliquency Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgjCFFyJrr3p03jMy1nAjdv0Ax8wn4Z0DpPLIuJ8dFpFzcTAk87gnh1jLSdiWTB5o_sQY23ipfkqcsJv0vPK8ThVDpdmShemBQl4tCUZTDzA1y3OgqQpqXGvba-OWjLaRv_Ye2hivIWN6AKrD1m2h-TvteOr7Fb47fNsbiAr0pDp89rkx5tLfFb\/s320\/FannieFreddieSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFreddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in September was 0.52%, up from 0.50% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.54% in September 2023.\u0026nbsp; This is also below the pre-pandemic lows.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6213194991082117893\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6213194991082117893","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6213194991082117893"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6213194991082117893"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-and.html","title":"Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgjCFFyJrr3p03jMy1nAjdv0Ax8wn4Z0DpPLIuJ8dFpFzcTAk87gnh1jLSdiWTB5o_sQY23ipfkqcsJv0vPK8ThVDpdmShemBQl4tCUZTDzA1y3OgqQpqXGvba-OWjLaRv_Ye2hivIWN6AKrD1m2h-TvteOr7Fb47fNsbiAr0pDp89rkx5tLfFb\/s72-c\/FannieFreddieSept2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8966464689125904656"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-30T10:00:00.018-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-30T10:18:47.697-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 7.4% in September; Up 2.6% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/pending-home-sales-advanced-7-4-in-september\"\u003EPending Home Sales Advanced 7.4% in September\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003Eending home sales rose in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions experienced month-over-month gains in transactions. Year-over-year, the Northeast and West registered increases while sales remained steady in the Midwest and South.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – jumped 7.4% to 75.8 in September, the highest level since March (78.3). Year-over-year, pending transactions ascended 2.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Contract signings rose across all regions of the country as buyers took advantage of the combination of lower mortgage rates in late summer and more inventory choices,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Northeast PHSI expanded 6.5% from last month to 65.6, up 3.3% from September 2023. The Midwest index surged 7.1% to 75.0 in September, identical to the previous year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe South PHSI improved 6.7% to 89.0 in September, unchanged from a year ago. The West index ballooned by 9.8% from the prior month to 64.0, up 12.3% from September 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was well above expectations.  Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.  The NAR also included their \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-10\/forecast-q3-2024-us-economic-outlook-10-04-2024.pdf\"\u003Eforecast\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the next two years, Yun foresees slower home price appreciation and corresponding increases in sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“After two years of sluggish home sales in 2023 and 2024, existing-home sales are forecasted to rise to 4.47 million in 2025 and more than 5 million in 2026,” Yun said. “During the next two years, expect a slower rate of growth in home prices that’s roughly in line with the consumer price index because of additional supply reaching the market.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nYun predicts the median existing-home price will rise to $410,700 in 2025 and to $420,000 in 2026. The annual 30-year fixed mortgage rate will slide to 5.9% in 2025 but then move higher to 6.1% in 2026\u003C\/blockquote\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8966464689125904656\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8966464689125904656","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8966464689125904656"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8966464689125904656"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/nar-pending-home-sales-increase-74-in.html","title":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 7.4% in September; Up 2.6% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4550074722168718610"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-30T08:30:00.018-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-30T08:36:15.458-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.8% Annualized Rate in Q3"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the BEA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2024\/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2024-advance-estimate\"\u003EGross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate)\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EReal gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024\u003C\/b\u003E, according to the \"advance\" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributors were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts. Within services, the leading contributors were health care (led by outpatient services) as well as food services and accommodations. The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive). The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending. The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCompared to the second quarter, \u003Cb\u003Ethe deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment\u003C\/b\u003E. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EPCE increased at a 3.7% annual rate, and residential investment decreased at a 5.1% rate. The advance Q2 GDP report, with 2.8% annualized increase, was below expectations.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nI'll have more later ...\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4550074722168718610\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4550074722168718610","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4550074722168718610"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4550074722168718610"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/bea-real-gdp-increased-at-28-annualized.html","title":"BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.8% Annualized Rate in Q3"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4886762498392767661"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-30T08:15:00.010-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-30T08:21:29.122-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ADP: Private Employment Increased 233,000 in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From ADP: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/\"\u003EADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by\n233,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 4.6%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E– Private sector employment increased by 233,000 jobs in\nOctober and annual pay was up 4.6 percent year-over-year, according to the October ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” said Nela Richardson, chief \neconomist, ADP. “As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly \nresilient.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003E\nemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was well above the consensus forecast of 110,000.  The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 140,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October.  Note: ADP doesn't include the Boeing strike, and probably was impacted less by the hurricanes than the BLS report."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4886762498392767661\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4886762498392767661","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4886762498392767661"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4886762498392767661"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/adp-private-employment-increased-233000.html","title":"ADP: Private Employment Increased 233,000 in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3433797079149937743"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-30T07:00:00.025-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-30T07:00:00.121-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one \nweek earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications \nSurvey for the week ending October 25, 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.1 percent on \na seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1\npercent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous \nweek and was 84 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase \nIndex increased 5 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent\ncompared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E10 percent higher than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Mortgage applications were essentially flat last week as rates increased for the fourth time in five weeks, \ndriven by bond market volatility in advance of the presidential election and the next FOMC meeting. The \n30-year fixed rate, at 6.73 percent, was at its highest level since July 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice \nPresident and Deputy Chief Economist. “After a brief burst of activity in September when rates were \nalmost 60 basis points lower, overall applications have declined 27 percent, driven by a pullback in \nrefinances. Government refinances accounted for a large part of the decrease, dropping 12 percent over \nlast week.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAdded Kan, “Purchase applications increased compared to a holiday-shortened week and were 10 \npercent higher than a year ago. While near-term purchase application activity has weakened, we continue \nto expect housing demand from younger homebuyers to support purchase growth over the next few years \nas for-sale inventory loosens gradually.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances \n($766,550 or less) increased to 6.73 percent from 6.52 percent, with points increasing to 0.69 from 0.64\n(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjxsPZv3FGz82IEFaRE8UhT5BQhgkmuU9_JFe2VcnHZcPjKCZBs2GCy5FwJyyFMCRAhlMYGdO4Uyn1cHYziMPhkG2nnOC98rhaqaltdbQS_xnwOJ8HVKFv9FS9LNUi7H6n_CikOSnFmXnry7JrBQTceqeFJpMa-zTUt8I0zV_JazFXCFmOHL-Ix\/s1084\/MBAOct302024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjxsPZv3FGz82IEFaRE8UhT5BQhgkmuU9_JFe2VcnHZcPjKCZBs2GCy5FwJyyFMCRAhlMYGdO4Uyn1cHYziMPhkG2nnOC98rhaqaltdbQS_xnwOJ8HVKFv9FS9LNUi7H6n_CikOSnFmXnry7JrBQTceqeFJpMa-zTUt8I0zV_JazFXCFmOHL-Ix\/s320\/MBAOct302024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, \u003Cb\u003Epurchase activity is up 10% year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPurchase application activity is up about 10% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 9% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjnzawh2DaPTdkWpiZjyA_Xfh926F8Cn-j3IngANBF6Rw82SDynh6rszzs-UdX5PMtJOyhTrz46CAAEisXIgiY45mRYlQEa4v474gk477YizkmSG0VeL8yt8LR3Lf7hQcyTO9vp5NdqauzjyDkOSqVNXEfuxv1SrZ0KaHvmJ9BUcs6Ugu1Rz9wY\/s1085\/MBARefiOct302024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjnzawh2DaPTdkWpiZjyA_Xfh926F8Cn-j3IngANBF6Rw82SDynh6rszzs-UdX5PMtJOyhTrz46CAAEisXIgiY45mRYlQEa4v474gk477YizkmSG0VeL8yt8LR3Lf7hQcyTO9vp5NdqauzjyDkOSqVNXEfuxv1SrZ0KaHvmJ9BUcs6Ugu1Rz9wY\/s320\/MBARefiOct302024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly as mortgage rates declined last month but decreased over the last five weeks as rates moved back up.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3433797079149937743\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3433797079149937743","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3433797079149937743"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3433797079149937743"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/mba-mortgage-applications-decreased-in_01783890763.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjxsPZv3FGz82IEFaRE8UhT5BQhgkmuU9_JFe2VcnHZcPjKCZBs2GCy5FwJyyFMCRAhlMYGdO4Uyn1cHYziMPhkG2nnOC98rhaqaltdbQS_xnwOJ8HVKFv9FS9LNUi7H6n_CikOSnFmXnry7JrBQTceqeFJpMa-zTUt8I0zV_JazFXCFmOHL-Ix\/s72-c\/MBAOct302024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3751450844856649867"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-29T20:03:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-29T20:03:00.114-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: GDP, Pending Home Sales, ADP Employment"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi_OXTaWT-nL74Ye_Z4mC8JuJeUXGu-JXMKTXGNZkOsjdjuSACeyDDel1HE1OIorMDm5sYdgGHnBUoeyMbUOCeK_c-47JvWfs-_3Hhu1riOkKNSp9-mjBQNcobG0lvpCpuopHCfiU7aWk1JcmmA9jM9CCfN7uR62H6ulwYgQJzMnGKW8ZDEKzgo\/s404\/RatesOct292024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi_OXTaWT-nL74Ye_Z4mC8JuJeUXGu-JXMKTXGNZkOsjdjuSACeyDDel1HE1OIorMDm5sYdgGHnBUoeyMbUOCeK_c-47JvWfs-_3Hhu1riOkKNSp9-mjBQNcobG0lvpCpuopHCfiU7aWk1JcmmA9jM9CCfN7uR62H6ulwYgQJzMnGKW8ZDEKzgo\/s320\/RatesOct292024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 8:15 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EADP Employment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 108,000 jobs added, down from 143,000 in September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EGross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (advance estimate)\u003C\/b\u003E. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q3, unchanged from 3.0% in Q2.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EPending Home Sales Index\u003C\/b\u003E for September.  The consensus is 1.0% decrease in the index."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3751450844856649867\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3751450844856649867","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3751450844856649867"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3751450844856649867"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/wednesday-gdp-pending-home-sales-adp.html","title":"Wednesday: GDP, Pending Home Sales, ADP Employment"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi_OXTaWT-nL74Ye_Z4mC8JuJeUXGu-JXMKTXGNZkOsjdjuSACeyDDel1HE1OIorMDm5sYdgGHnBUoeyMbUOCeK_c-47JvWfs-_3Hhu1riOkKNSp9-mjBQNcobG0lvpCpuopHCfiU7aWk1JcmmA9jM9CCfN7uR62H6ulwYgQJzMnGKW8ZDEKzgo\/s72-c\/RatesOct292024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9126161499023102259"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-29T17:30:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-29T17:30:00.253-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"HVS: Q3 2024 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/housing\/hvs\/files\/currenthvspress.pdf\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2024 today.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\nThis report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.\u0026nbsp; However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENational vacancy rates in the third quarter 2024 were 6.9 percent for rental housing\u003C\/b\u003E and 1.0 percent for \nhomeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter \n2023 (6.6 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2024 (6.6 percent).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe homeowner vacancy rate of 1.0 percent was higher than the rate in the third quarter 2023 (0.8 percent) \nand not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2024 (0.9 percent). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe \u003Cb\u003Ehomeownership rate of 65.6 percent \u003C\/b\u003Ewas not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2023\n(66.0 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the second quarter 2024 (65.6 percent). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003E\n  emphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9-nIoqN0HZqxe5z-J1UhYVmsC2db8bKSCRzcJmX3CtENmFzm6DhZXbPOIcSJeNw8iAV6rtw8O_SK5OinHsfzNmtv1R9Tosq0achoeZM57gi-kg0enpmdrEdxECNa9kRLeCljqypFqbxmhTaysOJSI03tMPpQUGaHTL_qYB8gHDghrTWL9YIr2\/s1073\/HVSHomeownershipQ32024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Homeownership Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9-nIoqN0HZqxe5z-J1UhYVmsC2db8bKSCRzcJmX3CtENmFzm6DhZXbPOIcSJeNw8iAV6rtw8O_SK5OinHsfzNmtv1R9Tosq0achoeZM57gi-kg0enpmdrEdxECNa9kRLeCljqypFqbxmhTaysOJSI03tMPpQUGaHTL_qYB8gHDghrTWL9YIr2\/s320\/HVSHomeownershipQ32024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe HVS homeownership rate was unchanged at 65.6% in Q3, from 65.6% in Q2.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjSxN5FUoU9KTstzSBOyGSEwvHSekGpcXQQUHN5HSmSH0_jNLF7mcvtmzauFsd8uIlCYYoIx3oOVS6od9hpTycV5v0tiogO_k_IXXOlDC2NM8fR4hAg04iFOeOQ_hwzMC148fmrlJplh-czFmfotK_mzG6Rfy2hbgwFte-TPH916DwFMrMCIS37\/s1018\/HVSHomeownerQ32024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Homeowner Vacancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjSxN5FUoU9KTstzSBOyGSEwvHSekGpcXQQUHN5HSmSH0_jNLF7mcvtmzauFsd8uIlCYYoIx3oOVS6od9hpTycV5v0tiogO_k_IXXOlDC2NM8fR4hAg04iFOeOQ_hwzMC148fmrlJplh-czFmfotK_mzG6Rfy2hbgwFte-TPH916DwFMrMCIS37\/s320\/HVSHomeownerQ32024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe HVS homeowner vacancy increased to 1.0% in Q3 from 0.9% in Q2. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOnce again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe homeowner vacancy rate declined sharply during the pandemic and includes homes that are vacant and for sale (so \u003Cb\u003Ethis mirrors the low but increasing levels of existing home inventory\u003C\/b\u003E).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgyb3RCJLhOxt9gxU57-H4vrSEYEWyGf_jllx0pdHiXa9L8QEMLgi_maxTVjhtv1Rpz9ehbKvhwT-WJh28F-6VlQxl0KGiHLeJoN3bJq_SHcmiWUPafOsF-oTk8lu8lLk43g3FuwHFqCjA2RBMYgfTdVym0-3n5-trhkghvGCOS9TpZotkfV49A\/s1014\/HVSRentQ32024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rental Vacancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgyb3RCJLhOxt9gxU57-H4vrSEYEWyGf_jllx0pdHiXa9L8QEMLgi_maxTVjhtv1Rpz9ehbKvhwT-WJh28F-6VlQxl0KGiHLeJoN3bJq_SHcmiWUPafOsF-oTk8lu8lLk43g3FuwHFqCjA2RBMYgfTdVym0-3n5-trhkghvGCOS9TpZotkfV49A\/s320\/HVSRentQ32024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe rental vacancy rate was increased to 6.9% in Q3 from 6.6% in Q2.\u0026nbsp; This is up from the low of 5.6% in 2021 and 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9126161499023102259\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9126161499023102259","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9126161499023102259"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9126161499023102259"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/hvs-q3-2024-homeownership-and-vacancy.html","title":"HVS: Q3 2024 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9-nIoqN0HZqxe5z-J1UhYVmsC2db8bKSCRzcJmX3CtENmFzm6DhZXbPOIcSJeNw8iAV6rtw8O_SK5OinHsfzNmtv1R9Tosq0achoeZM57gi-kg0enpmdrEdxECNa9kRLeCljqypFqbxmhTaysOJSI03tMPpQUGaHTL_qYB8gHDghrTWL9YIr2\/s72-c\/HVSHomeownershipQ32024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1336455268615547458"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-29T13:55:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-29T13:55:48.288-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Lawler: Mortgage Rates Have Surged Since the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates Last Month"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-mortgage-rates-have-surged\"\u003ELawler: Mortgage Rates Have Surged Since the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates Last Month\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EFrom housing economist Tom Lawler:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFolks who expected that mortgages rates would decline when the Federal Reserve began cutting its federal funds rate target range have been dazed and confused over the last month and a half.\u0026nbsp; Since the day before the Fed’s 50 bp reduction in its funds rate target on September 18, 30-year MBS yields have surged by 84 to 96 bp, while mortgage rates have jumped by 72 to 89 bp.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; At the same time intermediate- and longer-term Treasury yields have risen 53 to 67 bp.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEigMaWMdh1j-3Pg4MP2aWp86gFgichigHACf97Lt_-Yt9F4qGO-_x8XRGGc3M9OKVA3BRcM9Ut0jkKdDCBh0rWMFpm6Cp4R24-GTQR175iUTpm3j3AldZRnXfgqgUW33H9Y3ulpNplPkZz-szsMDJfVt_5-hHX8G-lBuHkop7-XcVfEioe0c49m\/s978\/LawlerYieldOct292024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Yield Curve\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEigMaWMdh1j-3Pg4MP2aWp86gFgichigHACf97Lt_-Yt9F4qGO-_x8XRGGc3M9OKVA3BRcM9Ut0jkKdDCBh0rWMFpm6Cp4R24-GTQR175iUTpm3j3AldZRnXfgqgUW33H9Y3ulpNplPkZz-szsMDJfVt_5-hHX8G-lBuHkop7-XcVfEioe0c49m\/s320\/LawlerYieldOct292024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThere are two main reasons MBS and mortgage rates have risen by more than Treasury rates over this period.\u0026nbsp; First, implied interest rate volatility has surged, as many market participants were caught off-guard by the string of unexpectedly strong economic releases (and slightly higher inflation releases) following the Fed’s rate decision. \u0026nbsp;For example, the BofAML MOVE index, a measure if implied interest rate volatility derived from one-month options on Treasuries across the yield curve, increased from 101.58 on September 17 to 130.92 on October 28, its highest reading since October 30, 2023.\u0026nbsp; (Mortgage investors effectively write a prepayment option to home borrowers, and as such higher implied interest rate volatility increases the premium over Treasuries that investors require to compensate them for prepayment risk.)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd second, MBS option-adjusted spreads, which were at the low-end of the “no Fed MBS intervention” range just prior to the Fed’s action, have since moved higher.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1336455268615547458\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1336455268615547458","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1336455268615547458"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1336455268615547458"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/lawler-mortgage-rates-have-surged-since.html","title":"Lawler: Mortgage Rates Have Surged Since the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates Last Month"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEigMaWMdh1j-3Pg4MP2aWp86gFgichigHACf97Lt_-Yt9F4qGO-_x8XRGGc3M9OKVA3BRcM9Ut0jkKdDCBh0rWMFpm6Cp4R24-GTQR175iUTpm3j3AldZRnXfgqgUW33H9Y3ulpNplPkZz-szsMDJfVt_5-hHX8G-lBuHkop7-XcVfEioe0c49m\/s72-c\/LawlerYieldOct292024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2986787550191265158"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-29T10:17:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-29T10:17:28.306-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August; Over last 4 months, FHFA Index has increased at a 1.9% Annual Rate"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-bdd\"\u003ECase-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ES\u0026amp;P\/Case-Shiller \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/spdji\/en\/index-family\/indicators\/sp-corelogic-case-shiller\/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite\/#overview\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the monthly Home Price Indices for August (\"August\" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices).  August closing prices include some contracts signed in April, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj76MSwJm8x176_GODIrFUTCBDg8arK2DsqGrVvzHNIR6Ai3N1JPmSOcOE_NaiiqqqF7_G5i87itix7mt3DxhG_0Zb3YEtqKM91rwyDUwMPUvSXeDYNIFmF0flLmpF5x2mkLvLqXJj50fewRBb2aY0j7GlPnXw48d2fPc3MmRiVgP9ik7bN-1cT\/s925\/CSMoMAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller MoM House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj76MSwJm8x176_GODIrFUTCBDg8arK2DsqGrVvzHNIR6Ai3N1JPmSOcOE_NaiiqqqF7_G5i87itix7mt3DxhG_0Zb3YEtqKM91rwyDUwMPUvSXeDYNIFmF0flLmpF5x2mkLvLqXJj50fewRBb2aY0j7GlPnXw48d2fPc3MmRiVgP9ik7bN-1cT\/s320\/CSMoMAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.32% (a 4.0% annual rate), This was the nineteenth consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOn a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities (prices declined in Tampa and Miami). Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 6.8% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 4.3% from the peak, Portland down 2.7%, and Denver down 2.6%.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2986787550191265158\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2986787550191265158","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2986787550191265158"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2986787550191265158"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/case-shiller-national-house-price-index_29.html","title":"Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August; Over last 4 months, FHFA Index has increased at a 1.9% Annual Rate"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj76MSwJm8x176_GODIrFUTCBDg8arK2DsqGrVvzHNIR6Ai3N1JPmSOcOE_NaiiqqqF7_G5i87itix7mt3DxhG_0Zb3YEtqKM91rwyDUwMPUvSXeDYNIFmF0flLmpF5x2mkLvLqXJj50fewRBb2aY0j7GlPnXw48d2fPc3MmRiVgP9ik7bN-1cT\/s72-c\/CSMoMAug2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5527155888736443052"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-29T10:00:00.018-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-29T10:06:36.637-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: Job Openings \"Little Unchanged\" at 7.4 million in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the BLS: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/jolts.nr0.htm\"\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Summary\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September\u003C\/b\u003E, the \nU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.6 million. The \nnumber of total separations was unchanged at 5.2 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and \nlayoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nThe following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis series started in December 2000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. \u003Cb\u003EThis report is for September; the employment report this Friday will be for October.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiOAFOA7PcnXZYOLp7R3_JhA3NKf8yPnB-wLDKHLfis_rwsaAE0gdhsgef_ROlxRUgv85qz5lXVq4biHycLZFJaQpJ1oKAi5GF6VBkCV54xlaVY3ZiaigMh5-bhv-xBqfn_SMe40WhHoL2xNxMq9aNL1UTAnz5glqeWOqiUQIG4rhuPGNEqLMbu\/s1117\/JOLTSSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiOAFOA7PcnXZYOLp7R3_JhA3NKf8yPnB-wLDKHLfis_rwsaAE0gdhsgef_ROlxRUgv85qz5lXVq4biHycLZFJaQpJ1oKAi5GF6VBkCV54xlaVY3ZiaigMh5-bhv-xBqfn_SMe40WhHoL2xNxMq9aNL1UTAnz5glqeWOqiUQIG4rhuPGNEqLMbu\/s320\/JOLTSSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.\u0026nbsp; When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nJobs openings decreased in September to 7.44 million from 7.86 million in August.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nQuits were down 15% year-over-year.  These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for \"quits\").\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5527155888736443052\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5527155888736443052","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5527155888736443052"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5527155888736443052"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/bls-job-openings-little-unchanged-at-74.html","title":"BLS: Job Openings \"Little Unchanged\" at 7.4 million in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiOAFOA7PcnXZYOLp7R3_JhA3NKf8yPnB-wLDKHLfis_rwsaAE0gdhsgef_ROlxRUgv85qz5lXVq4biHycLZFJaQpJ1oKAi5GF6VBkCV54xlaVY3ZiaigMh5-bhv-xBqfn_SMe40WhHoL2xNxMq9aNL1UTAnz5glqeWOqiUQIG4rhuPGNEqLMbu\/s72-c\/JOLTSSept2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-536211369548277109"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-29T09:00:00.036-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-29T09:09:59.640-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"S\u0026amp;P\/Case-Shiller \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/spdji\/en\/index-family\/indicators\/sp-corelogic-case-shiller\/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite\/#overview\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the monthly Home Price Indices for August (\"August\" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom S\u0026amp;P \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/spdji\/en\/documents\/indexnews\/announcements\/20241029-1475156\/1475156_cshomeprice-release-1029.pdf\"\u003ES\u0026amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 4.2% Annual Gain in August 2024\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe S\u0026amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census \ndivisions, reported a 4.2% annual return for August\u003C\/b\u003E, down from a 4.8% annual gain in the previous \nmonth. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 6.0%, down from a 6.8% annual increase in \nthe previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.2%, dropping from a \n5.9% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 \ncities with an 8.1% increase in August, followed by Las Vegas and Chicago with annual increases of \n7.3% and 7.2%, respectively. Denver posted the smallest year-over-year growth of 0.7%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite upward \ntrends reversed in August, with a -0.1% drop for the national index, and the 20-City and 10-City \nComposites saw -0.3% and -0.4% returns for this month, respectively.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAfter seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while\nthe 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly rise of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E“Home price growth is beginning to show signs of strain\u003C\/b\u003E, recording the slowest annual gain since \nmortgage rates peaked in 2023,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real \u0026amp; Digital \nAssets. “As students went back to school, home price shoppers appeared less willing to push the index \nhigher than in the summer months. Prices continue to decelerate for the past six months, pushing \nappreciation rates below their long-run average of 4.8%. After smoothing for seasonality in the data, \nhome prices continued to reach all-time highs, for the 15th month in a row.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E“Regionally, all markets continue to remain positive, barely\u003C\/b\u003E,” Luke continued. “Denver posted the \nslowest annual gain of all markets this year, dropping below Portland for the first time since the spring.\nThe Northeast remains the best performing region, with the strongest gains for over a year. Currently, \nonly New York, Las Vegas, and Chicago markets are at an all-time high. Comparing average gains of \ntraditional red and blue states highlight a slight advantage for home price markets of blue states. With \nstronger gains in the Northeast and West than the South, blue states have outperformed red states\ndating back to July 2023.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ci\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEitFnbR9zhYpLWK1L_wb2F5FYPKkns8JaE_7NoNaOJvkjHZY0msUzhNjKxRhRcvLx9_k_c_ja6UIFGh4EtlHuMdpL9nhRV6D95NOSJuIja58udyH-ELpNv-dzIY2QfH7LQuRNi6xFcvxORLnRZwep2DdnVyFqLwaJA6XPvRAXATtlhetAvx3-cP\/s1029\/CSAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEitFnbR9zhYpLWK1L_wb2F5FYPKkns8JaE_7NoNaOJvkjHZY0msUzhNjKxRhRcvLx9_k_c_ja6UIFGh4EtlHuMdpL9nhRV6D95NOSJuIja58udyH-ELpNv-dzIY2QfH7LQuRNi6xFcvxORLnRZwep2DdnVyFqLwaJA6XPvRAXATtlhetAvx3-cP\/s320\/CSAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Composite 10 index was up 0.3% in August (SA).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;The Composite 20 index was up 0.4% (SA) in August.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe National index was up 0.3% (SA) in August.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5ywp3IDKuetcw4aqRL7jzu5MWsKdxIGAHgmIjoNx-FHOe3YBzQojrRtfm-VnXR9ef7rGP670G4jldF_NXwPtI-6RWA0wHOsqiBTomhMP7JssmTfFoNQD7WOmywPHjeQLZkpppJ5hcPy_UmnHgjkz6cfcc5Cx_Pm27jV2e5xtM5LoaeQOn9Mdo\/s1024\/CSYoYAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5ywp3IDKuetcw4aqRL7jzu5MWsKdxIGAHgmIjoNx-FHOe3YBzQojrRtfm-VnXR9ef7rGP670G4jldF_NXwPtI-6RWA0wHOsqiBTomhMP7JssmTfFoNQD7WOmywPHjeQLZkpppJ5hcPy_UmnHgjkz6cfcc5Cx_Pm27jV2e5xtM5LoaeQOn9Mdo\/s320\/CSYoYAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Composite 10 SA was up 6.0% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; The Composite 20 SA was up 5.2% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe National index SA was up 4.2% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnnual price changes were close to expectations.\u0026nbsp; I'll have more later."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/536211369548277109\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=536211369548277109","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/536211369548277109"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/536211369548277109"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html","title":"Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEitFnbR9zhYpLWK1L_wb2F5FYPKkns8JaE_7NoNaOJvkjHZY0msUzhNjKxRhRcvLx9_k_c_ja6UIFGh4EtlHuMdpL9nhRV6D95NOSJuIja58udyH-ELpNv-dzIY2QfH7LQuRNi6xFcvxORLnRZwep2DdnVyFqLwaJA6XPvRAXATtlhetAvx3-cP\/s72-c\/CSAug2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});