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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"29603"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2356205363408086501"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-15T19:24:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-15T19:24:15.483-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/schedule-for-week-of-may-15-2022.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of May 15, 2022\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed \u003Cb\u003EEmpire State manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for May.  The consensus is for a reading of 17.0, down from 24.6.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 are up 12 and DOW futures are up 84 (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOil prices were up over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $111.19 per barrel and Brent at $112.21\t per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $66 and Brent was at $70 - so \u003Cb\u003EWTI oil prices are up 70% year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $4.46 per gallon.  A year ago prices were at $3.02 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.44 per gallon year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2356205363408086501\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2356205363408086501","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2356205363408086501"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2356205363408086501"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/sunday-night-futures_15.html","title":"Sunday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1893260923039654940"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-15T12:28:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-15T12:28:25.769-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q2 GDP Forecasts "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe forecast 2.7% GDP growth this year given wealth and liquidity remain supportive. We expect growth to slow to 1.8% next year, with a sequential slowdown to just 1% by 4Q as a restrictive Fed takes its toll. [\u003Cb\u003EQ2 3.5%\u003C\/b\u003E May 13 estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003E \t We are downgrading our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +2.5% (qoq ar)\u003C\/b\u003E, below consensus of +3.0%. The downgrade to US auto production schedules over the last month and the pickup in core goods inflation in the CPI and PPI reports is consistent with supply chain disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine War and the China covid lockdowns. [May 14 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the \u003Cb\u003Esecond quarter of 2022 is 1.8 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on May 9, down from 2.2 percent on May 4. [May 9 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1893260923039654940\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1893260923039654940","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1893260923039654940"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1893260923039654940"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/q2-gdp-forecasts.html","title":"Q2 GDP Forecasts "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3233551451179040687"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-14T14:11:00.016-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-14T14:11:00.321-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/what-will-happen-with-house-prices\"\u003EWhat will Happen with House Prices?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/realtorcom-reports-weekly-inventory-755\"\u003ERealtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-408\"\u003E2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/mortgage-originations-by-credit-score\"\u003EMortgage Originations by Credit Score and Age\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/homebuilder-comments-in-april-demand\"\u003EHomebuilder Comments in April: “Demand is slowing\", \"Investors pulling back\"\u003C\/a\u003E Clear signs of a market shift\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-market-where-its-at-where\"\u003EHousing Market: Where it's at. Where it's going.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe blog will continue as always!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMost content is available for free (and no Ads), but \u003Cb\u003Eplease\u0026nbsp;subscribe!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3233551451179040687\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3233551451179040687","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3233551451179040687"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3233551451179040687"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this_0449780484.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8038722646405887316"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-14T08:11:00.060-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-14T08:11:00.331-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of May 15, 2022"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key reports this week are April Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor manufacturing, April Industrial Production, and the May NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFed Chair Powell speaks on Tuesday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The Census Bureau is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/popest\/about\/schedule.html\"\u003Eexpected to release\u003C\/a\u003E \"National, State, and County housing units\" from the 2020 Census sometime in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, May 16th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The New York Fed \u003Cb\u003EEmpire State manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for May.  The consensus is for a reading of 17.0, down from 24.6.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, May 17th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj5upj2ZdzKlWnjY3JBlF-PsJ3F_ZzaLIGu_zaqyqIZjbgAQgjrtktvwrdAV2b82MFC6j9UcP3MRJQ5K_nYH4ZYFjWK55I3EolEOJESZO-ZeAQw309R5lw7bQHPqVvD2aqbel4lCudAr4gm31e3wp8odSSI-TkBqR6SHIKCEsX0kGCgIY0ijw\/s1042\/RetailMar2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj5upj2ZdzKlWnjY3JBlF-PsJ3F_ZzaLIGu_zaqyqIZjbgAQgjrtktvwrdAV2b82MFC6j9UcP3MRJQ5K_nYH4ZYFjWK55I3EolEOJESZO-ZeAQw309R5lw7bQHPqVvD2aqbel4lCudAr4gm31e3wp8odSSI-TkBqR6SHIKCEsX0kGCgIY0ijw\/s320\/RetailMar2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003ERetail sales\u003C\/b\u003E for April is scheduled to be released. \u0026nbsp;The consensus is for 0.8% increase in retail sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERetail sales were up 0.7% in March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgrRUdYQ59ydHzKuN1n3-ailUn2wx7LOmPRCZSpjzwSB-KmJR8-vKSoPzKg3U5wAxKrNme6w8V1pT-_O6FHboNTMKVaZWWN8BZfF60Y5uRhbgTKP6K_gtRCzX9NJZ9GZWUa6YLcdpaaxv56CLB7vE7eTkKcTt1HeoYpG_ohjeeJmwcqH_qcPA\/s1007\/IPMar2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgrRUdYQ59ydHzKuN1n3-ailUn2wx7LOmPRCZSpjzwSB-KmJR8-vKSoPzKg3U5wAxKrNme6w8V1pT-_O6FHboNTMKVaZWWN8BZfF60Y5uRhbgTKP6K_gtRCzX9NJZ9GZWUa6YLcdpaaxv56CLB7vE7eTkKcTt1HeoYpG_ohjeeJmwcqH_qcPA\/s320\/IPMar2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E9:15 AM: The Fed will release \u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/b\u003E for April.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows industrial production since 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.5%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: The May \u003Cb\u003ENAHB homebuilder survey\u003C\/b\u003E. The consensus is for a reading of 75 down from 77 last month.\u0026nbsp; Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003EDiscussion, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell\u003C\/b\u003E, \u003Ci\u003EConversation with Nick Timiraos\u003C\/i\u003E, At the Wall Street Journal Future of Everything Festival, New York, New York\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, May 18th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgvisQT5cBgLEB6hwbRwR_stc1lGj37w2fio4tsMTPDJR6l5x9ntrK1yPaV7zWQ9SNMOsq6cMnL2ts-sEnDA8NHpMw1GvLWFHVdoB8Ld6fZDlip-mbmr9-Pu-gZYFObOn1_cRB_gJgbQkmXdyBuJiU4dwDMln1_rw4yjAJKFDqFmPxbU8rUmA\/s1019\/StartShortMar2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgvisQT5cBgLEB6hwbRwR_stc1lGj37w2fio4tsMTPDJR6l5x9ntrK1yPaV7zWQ9SNMOsq6cMnL2ts-sEnDA8NHpMw1GvLWFHVdoB8Ld6fZDlip-mbmr9-Pu-gZYFObOn1_cRB_gJgbQkmXdyBuJiU4dwDMln1_rw4yjAJKFDqFmPxbU8rUmA\/s320\/StartShortMar2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts\u003C\/b\u003E for April. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is for 1.773 million SAAR, down from 1.793 million SAAR in March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDuring the day: The AIA's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, May 19th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 210 thousand up from 203 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for May.  The consensus is for a reading of 16.7, down from 17.6.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhv-gHOSE0xh8kYnlFqu0xbOYrV6v_BC-0fG9o97nk3pv9bOIrflfHJQbrk4kdAQTaWcWyvuv4-nIb9wYtnzfKPe6V6EWsHMEmie43185iwlFyhUaYw3ek8TG96N-n0Nj6R9mPHCDt61QmMWOnPOKR7m0Y8CLX-EBTxzf71MM4w148ooFl9Tw\/s1080\/EHSMar2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhv-gHOSE0xh8kYnlFqu0xbOYrV6v_BC-0fG9o97nk3pv9bOIrflfHJQbrk4kdAQTaWcWyvuv4-nIb9wYtnzfKPe6V6EWsHMEmie43185iwlFyhUaYw3ek8TG96N-n0Nj6R9mPHCDt61QmMWOnPOKR7m0Y8CLX-EBTxzf71MM4w148ooFl9Tw\/s320\/EHSMar2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EExisting Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  The consensus is for 5.62 million SAAR, down from 5.77 million.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, May 20th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EState Employment and Unemployment\u003C\/b\u003E (Monthly) for April 2022"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8038722646405887316\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8038722646405887316","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8038722646405887316"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8038722646405887316"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/schedule-for-week-of-may-15-2022.html","title":"Schedule for Week of May 15, 2022"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj5upj2ZdzKlWnjY3JBlF-PsJ3F_ZzaLIGu_zaqyqIZjbgAQgjrtktvwrdAV2b82MFC6j9UcP3MRJQ5K_nYH4ZYFjWK55I3EolEOJESZO-ZeAQw309R5lw7bQHPqVvD2aqbel4lCudAr4gm31e3wp8odSSI-TkBqR6SHIKCEsX0kGCgIY0ijw\/s72-c\/RetailMar2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7842693798522375193"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-13T21:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-13T21:11:00.360-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"COVID May 13, 2022: New Cases and Hospitalizations Increasing"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E220.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E87,382\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67,403\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14,604\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,795\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E272\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E322\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgl4YBAEyM_iZEqdfGX-hLgxo9F4qmTYeBmU3HC6BQv7ARokwR633S36ssqHQAowloMYzzNZ0Tjj3xS5cHYZIwUqXQXKPEjU_DR-zUg7zRvuBp1OBICQPY_bvW8XQQBXwJPcmxGODlrZg6G7jm-80Tt1nASCOJxqq_bvFJ0cbiATNuNLb6aLw\/s1196\/COVIDDeathsMay132022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgl4YBAEyM_iZEqdfGX-hLgxo9F4qmTYeBmU3HC6BQv7ARokwR633S36ssqHQAowloMYzzNZ0Tjj3xS5cHYZIwUqXQXKPEjU_DR-zUg7zRvuBp1OBICQPY_bvW8XQQBXwJPcmxGODlrZg6G7jm-80Tt1nASCOJxqq_bvFJ0cbiATNuNLb6aLw\/s320\/COVIDDeathsMay132022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ENew cases have more than tripled from the recent low, and hospitalizations are increasing week-over-week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAverage daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7842693798522375193\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7842693798522375193","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7842693798522375193"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7842693798522375193"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/covid-may-13-2022-new-cases-and.html","title":"COVID May 13, 2022: New Cases and Hospitalizations Increasing"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgl4YBAEyM_iZEqdfGX-hLgxo9F4qmTYeBmU3HC6BQv7ARokwR633S36ssqHQAowloMYzzNZ0Tjj3xS5cHYZIwUqXQXKPEjU_DR-zUg7zRvuBp1OBICQPY_bvW8XQQBXwJPcmxGODlrZg6G7jm-80Tt1nASCOJxqq_bvFJ0cbiATNuNLb6aLw\/s72-c\/COVIDDeathsMay132022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1430800838819146720"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-13T14:31:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-13T14:31:38.893-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 6.1% Compared to Same Week in 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom CoStar: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.costar.com\/article\/1816341496\/str-us-hotel-occupancy-declines-in-first-week-of-may\"\u003ESTR: US Hotel Occupancy Declines in First Week of May\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. hotel occupancy declined from the previous week, while average daily rate (ADR) increased slightly, according to STR‘s latest data through May 7.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMay 1-7, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 63.9% (-6.1%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• verage daily rate (ADR): $147.24 (+12.0%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E• evenue per available room (RevPAR): $94.10 (+5.1%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E   \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhr28kyJ2qAOh0HUG7izl2duEFBE9N8jwHR9Vu_uKVCquHzfbB4vTW2TexXao38CGKliVIKpIV_3FyokDxGV9PkqitAowyW_djCTj671aNHoF2MZ4Hpe7cvAntk0e0xk_u9-kXrY53_fVd7pZwIH26Z8yg02SPboj7oj3teYoBOOtOyh2sTqQ\/s1034\/HotelMay132022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhr28kyJ2qAOh0HUG7izl2duEFBE9N8jwHR9Vu_uKVCquHzfbB4vTW2TexXao38CGKliVIKpIV_3FyokDxGV9PkqitAowyW_djCTj671aNHoF2MZ4Hpe7cvAntk0e0xk_u9-kXrY53_fVd7pZwIH26Z8yg02SPboj7oj3teYoBOOtOyh2sTqQ\/s320\/HotelMay132022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.\u0026nbsp; Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate will now mostly move sideways seasonally until the summer.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1430800838819146720\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1430800838819146720","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1430800838819146720"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1430800838819146720"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/hotels-occupancy-rate-down-61-compared.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 6.1% Compared to Same Week in 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhr28kyJ2qAOh0HUG7izl2duEFBE9N8jwHR9Vu_uKVCquHzfbB4vTW2TexXao38CGKliVIKpIV_3FyokDxGV9PkqitAowyW_djCTj671aNHoF2MZ4Hpe7cvAntk0e0xk_u9-kXrY53_fVd7pZwIH26Z8yg02SPboj7oj3teYoBOOtOyh2sTqQ\/s72-c\/HotelMay132022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2673283826433614433"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-13T12:33:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-13T12:33:48.365-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"What will Happen with House Prices?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/what-will-happen-with-house-prices\"\u003EWhat will Happen with House Prices?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ENow let's look at the year-over-year change for the same period in real terms (inflation adjusted using CPI-less shelter).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that in real terms, house prices declined during the stall periods in 1982 and 1991.   In the early ‘80s, real prices declined 11% from the peak, even though nominal prices only declined slightly.   Homeowners are only concerned with nominal prices, so they didn’t notice the real price decline.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgWM8myX5-8Eb2aZNeerHez9BiT8UHKe64eCmqXfP8XJXfOMXbf23s4wKA6_urWM0jl9e_qJYt4tAJJ3yOGszMydJwoKO_ugSB-Y_Z3WTe-BwvkcVYLFDRTyMWvuqW5G_m-w8hyCbay8yG9keSrKM5_RwnR8eolPgaI0qkEmXieppYWMHy2Pg\/s982\/CSYoYLongReal2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller Real House Prices YoY\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgWM8myX5-8Eb2aZNeerHez9BiT8UHKe64eCmqXfP8XJXfOMXbf23s4wKA6_urWM0jl9e_qJYt4tAJJ3yOGszMydJwoKO_ugSB-Y_Z3WTe-BwvkcVYLFDRTyMWvuqW5G_m-w8hyCbay8yG9keSrKM5_RwnR8eolPgaI0qkEmXieppYWMHy2Pg\/s320\/CSYoYLongReal2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIn the early ‘90s, real prices decline almost 14% even though nominal prices declined 3%.  Note that real prices were flat for several years in the mid-‘90s.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDuring the housing bust, real prices declined 35% compared to a 26% decline in nominal prices (this was a low inflation period).\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe data seems to argue for the slow house price growth scenario, but my view is the most likely scenario is house prices will stall in nominal terms and decline in real terms\u003C\/b\u003E.  I’ve been \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-dont-compare-the-current?\"\u003Elooking at the 1978 to 1982 period\u003C\/a\u003E for lessons, and that would suggest a stall in house prices (hopefully we avoid a recession).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUnfortunately, I don’t have the existing home inventory data for that period.  However, my guess is the slow growth scenario would suggest inventory in the 4 to 5 months range, and the stall scenario would be close to 6 months of inventory.   For the bust scenario, my guess is we’d see existing home inventory at 7+ months. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2673283826433614433\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2673283826433614433","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2673283826433614433"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2673283826433614433"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/what-will-happen-with-house-prices.html","title":"What will Happen with House Prices?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgWM8myX5-8Eb2aZNeerHez9BiT8UHKe64eCmqXfP8XJXfOMXbf23s4wKA6_urWM0jl9e_qJYt4tAJJ3yOGszMydJwoKO_ugSB-Y_Z3WTe-BwvkcVYLFDRTyMWvuqW5G_m-w8hyCbay8yG9keSrKM5_RwnR8eolPgaI0qkEmXieppYWMHy2Pg\/s72-c\/CSYoYLongReal2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2763858093363799439"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-13T08:51:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-13T08:51:19.985-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate \"Rises in April\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Dodge Data Analytics: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/news\/DMI-Recovers-In-February-2022\"\u003EDodge Momentum Index Rises in April\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) moved 6% higher\u003C\/b\u003E in April to 164.8 (2000=100), up from the revised March reading of 155.0. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In April, the commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 9%, while the institutional component moved 2% higher.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith the gain in April, the Dodge Momentum Index was just 5% shy of the all-time high set in the fall of 2021. The main impetus behind this trend is the commercial sector, which has been driven by \u003Cb\u003Ea growing number of data center, warehouse and hotel projects entering the planning queue\u003C\/b\u003E. The institutional component has made moderate improvements as well, as more education, healthcare and recreation projects begin the planning process. On a year-over-year basis, the Momentum Index was 17% higher than in April 2021. The commercial component was 15% higher, while the institutional component was 22% higher than a year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhyoNQfbLkO3-Va9Jru7q2qyx-4d3MSeDRnFQVCxAQwDO1IS7T7okrWJwXOiJ_qgQCdONV6S5dx0OQzYzVRd0UnmWdEBpr3Jp17lggzNJdZzHKpsL5LijjWUJ9vwG6ACHTL2wjPHLt2cTzlABbYaJ2CrftFsj1jS1WNyNXOjMGaP8t0iPpKxg\/s1060\/DodgeApr2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Dodge Momentum Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhyoNQfbLkO3-Va9Jru7q2qyx-4d3MSeDRnFQVCxAQwDO1IS7T7okrWJwXOiJ_qgQCdONV6S5dx0OQzYzVRd0UnmWdEBpr3Jp17lggzNJdZzHKpsL5LijjWUJ9vwG6ACHTL2wjPHLt2cTzlABbYaJ2CrftFsj1jS1WNyNXOjMGaP8t0iPpKxg\/s320\/DodgeApr2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 164.8 in April, up from 155.0 in March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to Dodge, this index leads \"construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year\".\u0026nbsp; This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a solid pickup this year and into 2023."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2763858093363799439\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2763858093363799439","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2763858093363799439"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2763858093363799439"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/leading-index-for-commercial-real.html","title":"Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate \"Rises in April\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhyoNQfbLkO3-Va9Jru7q2qyx-4d3MSeDRnFQVCxAQwDO1IS7T7okrWJwXOiJ_qgQCdONV6S5dx0OQzYzVRd0UnmWdEBpr3Jp17lggzNJdZzHKpsL5LijjWUJ9vwG6ACHTL2wjPHLt2cTzlABbYaJ2CrftFsj1jS1WNyNXOjMGaP8t0iPpKxg\/s72-c\/DodgeApr2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8082816103517182525"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-12T20:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-12T20:11:04.577-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Mortgage Rates Move Lower"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-05122022\"\u003ERates Are Actually Lower Today (And This Week)\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ERates are actually lower today and significantly lower than last week.  In fact, as long as they're still ending the business week on Fridays, this week's rates are significantly lower, with the average lender offering conventional 30yr fixed rates about a quarter of a point below those seen on Friday afternoon.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou'd have to go all the way back to April 27th to see anything as low.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E  The average lender is now quoting conventional\u003Cb\u003E 30yr fixed rates in the at 5.375% or lower for top tier scenarios\u003C\/b\u003E.  This is down from 5.625% at the recent highs just a few days ago.  \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiHut_0l99P9KuYqAln4NqXQ1H8wu15FW88C-gTZaTCFu8zX1VFb2DjTjpmOXQht88J-7lJM3lrRGceWdpDD3BB-PN4ir_SB5XsudLQc3j7xXCAI7Tm8PB9HAWRMSpN_yhjPpTCpXuTPhEhMTcPmkmif-cuyVDd1AVTw8gHnlVgemT_-eNBBg\/s757\/MortgageRatesMay122022.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiHut_0l99P9KuYqAln4NqXQ1H8wu15FW88C-gTZaTCFu8zX1VFb2DjTjpmOXQht88J-7lJM3lrRGceWdpDD3BB-PN4ir_SB5XsudLQc3j7xXCAI7Tm8PB9HAWRMSpN_yhjPpTCpXuTPhEhMTcPmkmif-cuyVDd1AVTw8gHnlVgemT_-eNBBg\/s320\/MortgageRatesMay122022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage-rates\/30-year-fixed\"\u003Egraph from Mortgage News Daily\u003C\/a\u003E (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) since the beginning of 2021.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 30-year fixed rate for top tier scenarios was 5.35% today, down from the recent high of 5.64%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EGo to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8082816103517182525\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8082816103517182525","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8082816103517182525"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8082816103517182525"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/mortgage-rates-move-lower.html","title":"Mortgage Rates Move Lower"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiHut_0l99P9KuYqAln4NqXQ1H8wu15FW88C-gTZaTCFu8zX1VFb2DjTjpmOXQht88J-7lJM3lrRGceWdpDD3BB-PN4ir_SB5XsudLQc3j7xXCAI7Tm8PB9HAWRMSpN_yhjPpTCpXuTPhEhMTcPmkmif-cuyVDd1AVTw8gHnlVgemT_-eNBBg\/s72-c\/MortgageRatesMay122022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-68433163958408847"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-12T10:32:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-12T10:32:28.817-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year; First Year-over-year Increase Since 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/realtorcom-reports-weekly-inventory-755\"\u003ERealtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003ERealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released this morning from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-apr-23-2022\/\"\u003EWeekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 7, 2022\u003C\/a\u003E.  Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. \u003Cblockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EActive inventory grew for the first time since 2019\u003C\/b\u003E. While the size of the improvement rounded to 0%, this week’s data [marks] the first time that inventory figures weren’t lower than the previous year since June 2019. Our \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/april-2022-data\"\u003EApril Housing Trends Report\u003C\/a\u003E showed that the active listings count remained 60 percent below its level right at the onset of the pandemic. This means that for every 5 homes available for sale in the earlier period, today there are just 2. In other words, homes for sale are still limited. However, the switch to growth after nearly 3 years of decline is a step in the right direction, even though inventory continues to lag pre-pandemic normal.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiQlBVnBQoqCs-WlRGvN-WZ3yCAvUcKJeBvzW9vX-g_qGIFhky_Zax_wkKk8Rviz09iCzpxec59whGCtpW-i0VaSE8Mbca6HYQyAx1sv1U8GwTVYx04_atTeKoyypXEno4wiZXix7S6-pzrem_KcDFYL-n7piuY0J00I99xxlFiPxnnPysp9g\/s1022\/RealtorWeeklyMay122022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller MoM House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiQlBVnBQoqCs-WlRGvN-WZ3yCAvUcKJeBvzW9vX-g_qGIFhky_Zax_wkKk8Rviz09iCzpxec59whGCtpW-i0VaSE8Mbca6HYQyAx1sv1U8GwTVYx04_atTeKoyypXEno4wiZXix7S6-pzrem_KcDFYL-n7piuY0J00I99xxlFiPxnnPysp9g\/s320\/RealtorWeeklyMay122022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003Erealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E.  Note: I corrected a sign error in the data for Feb 26, 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote the rapid increase in the YoY change, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to unchanged YoY now.  It will be important to watch if that trend continues.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe previous week, inventory was down 3.4% YoY according to Realtor.com. That is close to the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/housing-inventory-may-9th-update.html\"\u003E1.6% decline that Altos reported\u003C\/a\u003E for the similar period. I expect Altos to report a year-over-year increase in inventory on Monday.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/68433163958408847\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=68433163958408847","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/68433163958408847"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/68433163958408847"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/realtorcom-reports-weekly-inventory-up.html","title":"Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up Slightly Year-over-year; First Year-over-year Increase Since 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiQlBVnBQoqCs-WlRGvN-WZ3yCAvUcKJeBvzW9vX-g_qGIFhky_Zax_wkKk8Rviz09iCzpxec59whGCtpW-i0VaSE8Mbca6HYQyAx1sv1U8GwTVYx04_atTeKoyypXEno4wiZXix7S6-pzrem_KcDFYL-n7piuY0J00I99xxlFiPxnnPysp9g\/s72-c\/RealtorWeeklyMay122022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8002708433534003723"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-12T08:35:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-12T08:35:32.577-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 203,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the week ending May 7, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 203,000\u003C\/b\u003E, an increase of 1,000  from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 200,000 to 202,000. The  4-week moving average was 192,750, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's  average was revised up by 500 from 188,000 to 188,500.   \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg5xkmFRXdQqzdk5nx_naJTlT5aw-tap9Y1RfggtoY0g03ojK58p6jd6UDdRLfXSg-HTc-AxkvfBo4-2K62RNEVPt30jEZQCMOdqoZu_KW-kfJQsjLOEGexPA72ReNdHmYLarctC9bTrUoLW5XfOiYtmt2XFZFevu1nx0hkE0eThDrrfYHVng\/s1081\/WeeklyClaimsMay122022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg5xkmFRXdQqzdk5nx_naJTlT5aw-tap9Y1RfggtoY0g03ojK58p6jd6UDdRLfXSg-HTc-AxkvfBo4-2K62RNEVPt30jEZQCMOdqoZu_KW-kfJQsjLOEGexPA72ReNdHmYLarctC9bTrUoLW5XfOiYtmt2XFZFevu1nx0hkE0eThDrrfYHVng\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsMay122022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 192,750.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWeekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8002708433534003723\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8002708433534003723","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8002708433534003723"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8002708433534003723"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_12.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 203,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg5xkmFRXdQqzdk5nx_naJTlT5aw-tap9Y1RfggtoY0g03ojK58p6jd6UDdRLfXSg-HTc-AxkvfBo4-2K62RNEVPt30jEZQCMOdqoZu_KW-kfJQsjLOEGexPA72ReNdHmYLarctC9bTrUoLW5XfOiYtmt2XFZFevu1nx0hkE0eThDrrfYHVng\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsMay122022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3085012467772825142"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-11T20:50:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-11T20:50:00.403-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: PPI, Unemployment Claims"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Thursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, the \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 210 thousand up from 200 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for April\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in PPI, and a 0.6% increase in core PPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E220.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E78,236\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E61,715\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14,104\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,291\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E326\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E332\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjY8kGh1nhPZcE-BliwvwFcy4UskNuHbcFWL5Lv9nHd5zYAYUj_oPexset0Az7LM7ue86-R2fAF-eKwsIqM7pRq6UsUa-NmbR6SrGhzrhuOTjhNlM16C-o5ouZYi4qaqyCj0Jqej7kNFZJncVo04AQdSOjOMd1bwg_p7TL0-_9RCKvPpLMbFw\/s1192\/COVIDDeathsMay112022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjY8kGh1nhPZcE-BliwvwFcy4UskNuHbcFWL5Lv9nHd5zYAYUj_oPexset0Az7LM7ue86-R2fAF-eKwsIqM7pRq6UsUa-NmbR6SrGhzrhuOTjhNlM16C-o5ouZYi4qaqyCj0Jqej7kNFZJncVo04AQdSOjOMd1bwg_p7TL0-_9RCKvPpLMbFw\/s320\/COVIDDeathsMay112022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ENew cases have more than doubled from the recent low, and hospitalizations are increasing week-over-week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAverage daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3085012467772825142\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3085012467772825142","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3085012467772825142"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3085012467772825142"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/thursday-ppi-unemployment-claims.html","title":"Thursday: PPI, Unemployment Claims"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjY8kGh1nhPZcE-BliwvwFcy4UskNuHbcFWL5Lv9nHd5zYAYUj_oPexset0Az7LM7ue86-R2fAF-eKwsIqM7pRq6UsUa-NmbR6SrGhzrhuOTjhNlM16C-o5ouZYi4qaqyCj0Jqej7kNFZJncVo04AQdSOjOMd1bwg_p7TL0-_9RCKvPpLMbFw\/s72-c\/COVIDDeathsMay112022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2149976609189471312"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-11T12:48:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-11T12:48:28.170-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April; Inventory increasing, No Surge in New Listings"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-408\"\u003E2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EHere is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in April. Note: Inventory usually increases seasonally in April, so some month-over-month (MoM) increase is not surprising.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory was up 17.9% in April MoM from March, and up 4.9% year-over-year (YoY). \u003Cb\u003EEight of 15 markets were up YoY\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EActive inventory in these markets were down 19% YoY in February, and down 4.8% YoY in March, so this is a significant change from February and March\u003C\/b\u003E. This is another step towards a more balanced market, but inventory levels are still very low.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9E3sEaUg433ID4QKliGSsioIaT1wD_OBXxpHLdrbwHQ45FwsiHA_TgpWHXVgMjSY4zPXGukE9_xIR_IA3tZvIWnw4Tr_pzyXgkzvenkeUs9cPzf-gzE7XW3KUF78XWI6kATFxnjfAPmYiOvc2S_pEJpE_hY8bFZuwtG2E1kOR7XbqnTkwow\/s654\/ActiveApr2022V2.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Active Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9E3sEaUg433ID4QKliGSsioIaT1wD_OBXxpHLdrbwHQ45FwsiHA_TgpWHXVgMjSY4zPXGukE9_xIR_IA3tZvIWnw4Tr_pzyXgkzvenkeUs9cPzf-gzE7XW3KUF78XWI6kATFxnjfAPmYiOvc2S_pEJpE_hY8bFZuwtG2E1kOR7XbqnTkwow\/s320\/ActiveApr2022V2.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENotes for all tables:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) New additions to table in\u0026nbsp;BOLD.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas) and Santa Clara (San Jose), Jacksonville, Source: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/publish\/post\/54459031#\"\u003ENortheast Florida Association of REALTORS®\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3)  Totals do not include Atlanta (included in state total).\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2149976609189471312\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2149976609189471312","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2149976609189471312"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2149976609189471312"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April; Inventory increasing, No Surge in New Listings"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9E3sEaUg433ID4QKliGSsioIaT1wD_OBXxpHLdrbwHQ45FwsiHA_TgpWHXVgMjSY4zPXGukE9_xIR_IA3tZvIWnw4Tr_pzyXgkzvenkeUs9cPzf-gzE7XW3KUF78XWI6kATFxnjfAPmYiOvc2S_pEJpE_hY8bFZuwtG2E1kOR7XbqnTkwow\/s72-c\/ActiveApr2022V2.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7251975991854949559"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-11T11:18:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-11T11:18:18.359-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in April"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The Cleveland Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/en\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/median-cpi.aspx\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in April. \"The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The Cleveland Fed released the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/median-cpi\/current-components.aspx\"\u003Emedian CPI details\u0026nbsp;here\u003C\/a\u003E:\u0026nbsp;\"Used Cars\" were down slightly annualized in April, and this will likely show further declines in coming months.\u0026nbsp; Motor fuel was down 51% annualized in April after increasing sharply in March\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1\/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up around 5% to 6% annualized in April.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi6v4k5PBar6yRnrRfJ07_dkaRXfn1fbdR_5qiDgvCX0TrG_KP5KXiIBn21Kxc6gQBsFtSZlYbiPtoaUD9q1VZT5N9GSao7R4PaUlGig0F3wHH2Ld2X0hesMNG6eJprb8EmpyntBCy_s2lgC66bwPMwp6pTIOdCkZn1Ti3NLORS9rofWnaNDQ\/s1061\/InflationApr2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Inflation Measures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi6v4k5PBar6yRnrRfJ07_dkaRXfn1fbdR_5qiDgvCX0TrG_KP5KXiIBn21Kxc6gQBsFtSZlYbiPtoaUD9q1VZT5N9GSao7R4PaUlGig0F3wHH2Ld2X0hesMNG6eJprb8EmpyntBCy_s2lgC66bwPMwp6pTIOdCkZn1Ti3NLORS9rofWnaNDQ\/s320\/InflationApr2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 5.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 6.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.2%.  Core PCE is for March and increased 5.2% year-over-year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7251975991854949559\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7251975991854949559","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7251975991854949559"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7251975991854949559"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-05.html","title":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in April"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi6v4k5PBar6yRnrRfJ07_dkaRXfn1fbdR_5qiDgvCX0TrG_KP5KXiIBn21Kxc6gQBsFtSZlYbiPtoaUD9q1VZT5N9GSao7R4PaUlGig0F3wHH2Ld2X0hesMNG6eJprb8EmpyntBCy_s2lgC66bwPMwp6pTIOdCkZn1Ti3NLORS9rofWnaNDQ\/s72-c\/InflationApr2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2360385069847125344"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-11T08:33:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-11T08:33:38.506-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in April; Core CPI increased 0.6%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\"\u003EFrom the BLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in Apri\u003C\/b\u003El on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the \u003Eall items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIncreases in the indexes for shelter, food, airline fares, and new vehicles were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.9 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 1.0 percent. The energy index declined in April after rising in recent months. The index for gasoline fell 6.1 percent over the month, offsetting increases in the indexes for natural gas and electricity.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in April\u003C\/b\u003E following a 0.3-percent advance in March. Along with indexes for shelter, airline fares, and new vehicles, the indexes for medical care, recreation, and household furnishings and operations all increased in April. The indexes for apparel, communication, and used cars and trucks all declined over the month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending April\u003C\/b\u003E, a smaller increase than the 8.5-percent figure for the period ending in March. \u003Cb\u003EThe all items less food and energy index rose 6.2 percent over the last 12 months\u003C\/b\u003E. The energy index rose 30.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 9.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1981.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe consensus was for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 8.1% YoY), and a 0.4% increase in core CPI (up 6.1% YoY).   Both were above expectations.  I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2360385069847125344\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2360385069847125344","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2360385069847125344"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2360385069847125344"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/bls-cpi-increased-03-in-april-core-cpi.html","title":"BLS: CPI increased 0.3% in April; Core CPI increased 0.6%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-97872240448297047"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-11T07:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-11T07:00:00.394-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications increased 2.0 percent from one week  earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications  Survey for the week ending May 6, 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous  week and was 72 percent lower than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase  Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E8 percent lower than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“The increase in mortgage applications last week was driven by a strong gain in application activity for  conventional and government purchase loans, even as mortgage rates rose to their highest level – 5.53  percent – since 2009. Despite a slow start to this year’s spring home buying season, prospective buyers  are showing some resiliency to higher rates. Purchase activity has now increased for two straight weeks,”  said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “More borrowers  continue to utilize ARMs to combat higher rates. The share of ARMs increased to 11 percent of overall  loans and to 19 percent by dollar volume.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAdded Kan, “The rapid rise in mortgages rates continues to hit the refinance market, with activity 70  percent below a year ago. Most homeowners refinanced to lower rates in the past two years.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances  ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.53 percent from 5.36 percent, with points increasing to 0.73 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiBXeTEjjv3ZrlpQTOcH4EurpZDXVIOuTFSiVEyOHyrgmODBBODEbwIQFsK0-I6NnxbI8-gwmEPG0-6Y086VsEKxNIPEpmkRBjO74LvzxjsvYVj8YLIJ1gr9M5_bIG4kYiPMYZcsCtK1v4-RyWlUtXw2ZmgQkrNSwOzZNeVrr0oy1OfSmysYA\/s1085\/MBARefiMay112022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiBXeTEjjv3ZrlpQTOcH4EurpZDXVIOuTFSiVEyOHyrgmODBBODEbwIQFsK0-I6NnxbI8-gwmEPG0-6Y086VsEKxNIPEpmkRBjO74LvzxjsvYVj8YLIJ1gr9M5_bIG4kYiPMYZcsCtK1v4-RyWlUtXw2ZmgQkrNSwOzZNeVrr0oy1OfSmysYA\/s320\/MBARefiMay112022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe refinance index just above last week, and that was the lowest level since December 2018.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhGjrhUK5t4mezGoyQmHlt_yM4b-Frgjdz24cB5iX0rNtFg9ClZ7nxduwO5TmrkipB8u9Q2oWxsCLBznNHaIEzdABrOqufBQrhCpZlAojHVMSHXU4CD1WbSvb-YEhjltTpJK_m44IDaU8bd7OpuNItNvTMNns_p2Up8Gf_ziRen220C9ke0KQ\/s1085\/MBAMay112022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhGjrhUK5t4mezGoyQmHlt_yM4b-Frgjdz24cB5iX0rNtFg9ClZ7nxduwO5TmrkipB8u9Q2oWxsCLBznNHaIEzdABrOqufBQrhCpZlAojHVMSHXU4CD1WbSvb-YEhjltTpJK_m44IDaU8bd7OpuNItNvTMNns_p2Up8Gf_ziRen220C9ke0KQ\/s320\/MBAMay112022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 8% year-over-year unadjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/97872240448297047\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=97872240448297047","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/97872240448297047"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/97872240448297047"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/mba-mortgage-applications-increase-in_0868137506.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiBXeTEjjv3ZrlpQTOcH4EurpZDXVIOuTFSiVEyOHyrgmODBBODEbwIQFsK0-I6NnxbI8-gwmEPG0-6Y086VsEKxNIPEpmkRBjO74LvzxjsvYVj8YLIJ1gr9M5_bIG4kYiPMYZcsCtK1v4-RyWlUtXw2ZmgQkrNSwOzZNeVrr0oy1OfSmysYA\/s72-c\/MBARefiMay112022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7489045145244729478"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-10T21:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-10T21:00:00.276-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: CPI"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for April\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 8.1% YoY), and a 0.4% increase in core CPI (up 6.1% YoY).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E220.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E74,712\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E60,554\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13,538\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,047\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E323\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E331\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiJkkgsa1V2quCkRbMpeN_1zmKB9---F6qqZvqj1e9udEyDeTTUzx1Gb1u7X7u5zAuhfdMZ5f4bTcyKjqNfgXlRiLxRzDdcgqmVaclozXGqwiGN_U_XUZk37-18VAftVA63FiRvdAGCC7wbIZrtC3mHVXqYDRAC8L2hw2fWCpyVPszKffTcFQ\/s1204\/COVIDDeathsMay102022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiJkkgsa1V2quCkRbMpeN_1zmKB9---F6qqZvqj1e9udEyDeTTUzx1Gb1u7X7u5zAuhfdMZ5f4bTcyKjqNfgXlRiLxRzDdcgqmVaclozXGqwiGN_U_XUZk37-18VAftVA63FiRvdAGCC7wbIZrtC3mHVXqYDRAC8L2hw2fWCpyVPszKffTcFQ\/s320\/COVIDDeathsMay102022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ENew cases have more than doubled from the recent low, and hospitalizations are increasing week-over-week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAverage daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7489045145244729478\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7489045145244729478","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7489045145244729478"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7489045145244729478"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/wednesday-cpi.html","title":"Wednesday: CPI"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiJkkgsa1V2quCkRbMpeN_1zmKB9---F6qqZvqj1e9udEyDeTTUzx1Gb1u7X7u5zAuhfdMZ5f4bTcyKjqNfgXlRiLxRzDdcgqmVaclozXGqwiGN_U_XUZk37-18VAftVA63FiRvdAGCC7wbIZrtC3mHVXqYDRAC8L2hw2fWCpyVPszKffTcFQ\/s72-c\/COVIDDeathsMay102022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6008917387080528895"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-10T12:01:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-10T12:01:30.203-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Mortgage Originations by Credit Score and Age"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/mortgage-originations-by-credit-score\"\u003EMortgage Originations by Credit Score and Age\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe NY Fed released the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/medialibrary\/interactives\/householdcredit\/data\/pdf\/HHDC_2022Q1\"\u003EQ1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit\u003C\/a\u003E this morning.  Here are a couple of charts from the report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance).   Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006).  Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660.  A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESolid underwriting is a key reason I’ve argued \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-dont-compare-the-current\"\u003EDon't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjfff5olIV3cFDbAh9wJQZQUOELvitfr-Mn6IgRRHstGLJUBd84oo6u0LgYYG7WeTySp2jLeaTWimAfXa_wJ_qD7A13oS82C_qWe1-NUb1-UyqYtfY0qrYfA1Ykw33o5bTIk-6_LYyfEprbYPNWF8jrmTXUFFjfHagmp9V29Kn-rxG10fBwgQ\/s923\/NYFedMortgageCreditQ12022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Debt by Credit Score\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjfff5olIV3cFDbAh9wJQZQUOELvitfr-Mn6IgRRHstGLJUBd84oo6u0LgYYG7WeTySp2jLeaTWimAfXa_wJ_qD7A13oS82C_qWe1-NUb1-UyqYtfY0qrYfA1Ykw33o5bTIk-6_LYyfEprbYPNWF8jrmTXUFFjfHagmp9V29Kn-rxG10fBwgQ\/s320\/NYFedMortgageCreditQ12022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFrom the NY Fed:\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and which include refinances, were at $859 billion in 2022Q1. This represented a decrease from the high volumes seen during 2021, but still was $197 billion higher than the volume seen in 2020Q1, just before the pandemic hit.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe median credit score of newly originated mortgages declined again, to 776, down from a series high in 2021Q1 of 788. Yet, credit scores on newly originated mortgages remain very high and reflect continuing high lending standards.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6008917387080528895\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6008917387080528895","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6008917387080528895"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6008917387080528895"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/mortgage-originations-by-credit-score.html","title":"Mortgage Originations by Credit Score and Age"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjfff5olIV3cFDbAh9wJQZQUOELvitfr-Mn6IgRRHstGLJUBd84oo6u0LgYYG7WeTySp2jLeaTWimAfXa_wJ_qD7A13oS82C_qWe1-NUb1-UyqYtfY0qrYfA1Ykw33o5bTIk-6_LYyfEprbYPNWF8jrmTXUFFjfHagmp9V29Kn-rxG10fBwgQ\/s72-c\/NYFedMortgageCreditQ12022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4270988464516952485"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-10T11:10:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-10T11:10:34.570-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NY Fed Q1 Report: Total Household Debt Increases to $15.8 trillion"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NY Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/newsevents\/news\/research\/2022\/20220510\"\u003ETotal Household Debt Increases in Q1 2022, Driven by Mortgage and Auto Balances\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/hhdc.html\"\u003EQuarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit\u003C\/a\u003E. The Report shows a solid increase in total household debt in the first quarter of 2022, increasing by $266 billion (1.7%) to $15.84 trillion. Balances now stand $1.7 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMortgage balances rose by $250 billion in the first quarter of 2022 and stood at $11.18 trillion at the end of March. In line with seasonal trends typically seen at the start of the year, credit card balances declined by $15 billion. Credit card balances are still $71 billion higher than Q1 2021 and represent a substantial year-over-year increase. Auto loan balances increased by $11 billion in the first quarter, while student loan balances increased by $14 billion and now stand at $1.59 trillion. In total, non-housing balances grew by $17 billion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMortgage and auto loan originations both declined in the first quarter, after historically high volumes in 2021. Mortgage originations were at $859 billion, representing a decline from the high volumes seen during 2021, yet still $197 billion higher than in Q1 2020, right before the pandemic hit the United States. The volume of newly originated auto loans was $177 billion during the first quarter, primarily reflecting an increase in auto prices. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased by $64 billion and now stand at $4.12 trillion–$224 billion above the pre-pandemic level.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgf92bXK1AGXVGJX7PWtMq8qzlA2i75u0Iq8QK-EkWTBVKk7fzs45eYrFZBECbnJDI6w_ZTHom5Vm_EB2-DS-Bi_rBmlbMkbl4eWQSd-LjyQyod5CXfxXL9k7BiKldvemNpaaEaunEh0IT44R0fjZnx5qr_8P-6ZIoYkQBJANy5LV1HgdLqEg\/s934\/NYFedDebtQ12022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Total Household Debt\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgf92bXK1AGXVGJX7PWtMq8qzlA2i75u0Iq8QK-EkWTBVKk7fzs45eYrFZBECbnJDI6w_ZTHom5Vm_EB2-DS-Bi_rBmlbMkbl4eWQSd-LjyQyod5CXfxXL9k7BiKldvemNpaaEaunEh0IT44R0fjZnx5qr_8P-6ZIoYkQBJANy5LV1HgdLqEg\/s320\/NYFedDebtQ12022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere are three graphs from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/hhdc.html\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q1. \u0026nbsp;Household debt previously\u0026nbsp;peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013.  Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a huge decline in debt during the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the NY Fed:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAggregate household debt balances increased by $266 billion in the first quarter of 2022, a 1.7% rise from 2021Q4. Balances  now stand at $15.84 trillion, $1.7 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, just before the Covid pandemic.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhmo288CZC5ajPpV6KfDdHJ2YXUl3WjPYvnCg6qQxRBZFR9iCtFWc4MS7elmTdi-krhqguEmTAP6vxAHly7UH6DK19rgBUM85osHodL4hDNtWYJJePjc03YWEgY5MK27Oe0DzcOi6llVC2QCyGbsCw2sgjHafJ4wPf3MNlLFNh0ghhJ0e3wdw\/s919\/NYFedDelinquencyQ12022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Delinquency Status\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhmo288CZC5ajPpV6KfDdHJ2YXUl3WjPYvnCg6qQxRBZFR9iCtFWc4MS7elmTdi-krhqguEmTAP6vxAHly7UH6DK19rgBUM85osHodL4hDNtWYJJePjc03YWEgY5MK27Oe0DzcOi6llVC2QCyGbsCw2sgjHafJ4wPf3MNlLFNh0ghhJ0e3wdw\/s320\/NYFedDelinquencyQ12022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe overall delinquency rate was unchanged in Q1. \u0026nbsp;From the NY Fed:  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAggregate delinquency rates were unchanged in the first quarter of 2022 and remain very low, after declining sharply through  the beginning of the pandemic. Delinquency rates have been low in part due to forbearances (provided by both the CARES Act and  voluntarily offered by lenders), which protect borrowers’ credit records from the reporting of skipped or deferred payments. Although  these forbearances have ended for most types of debts, the pause on student loan payments remains in place. As of late March, 2.7%  of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 2.0 percentage point decrease from the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the  COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States. \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/hhdc.html\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4270988464516952485\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4270988464516952485","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4270988464516952485"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4270988464516952485"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/ny-fed-q1-report-total-household-debt.html","title":"NY Fed Q1 Report: Total Household Debt Increases to $15.8 trillion"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgf92bXK1AGXVGJX7PWtMq8qzlA2i75u0Iq8QK-EkWTBVKk7fzs45eYrFZBECbnJDI6w_ZTHom5Vm_EB2-DS-Bi_rBmlbMkbl4eWQSd-LjyQyod5CXfxXL9k7BiKldvemNpaaEaunEh0IT44R0fjZnx5qr_8P-6ZIoYkQBJANy5LV1HgdLqEg\/s72-c\/NYFedDebtQ12022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7403462497876149868"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-10T08:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-10T08:11:00.381-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in April"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes like the recent FHFA \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.fhfa.gov\/Media\/PublicAffairs\/Pages\/FHFA-Announces-Targeted-Increases-to-Enterprise-Pricing-Framework.aspx\"\u003ETargeted Increases to Enterprise Pricing Framework\u003C\/a\u003E, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through April 2022, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgrckoKLGjsChdbZ1oEbnUcQGcdRsSfJ_U-AdLGaaPZA7zoleCsVHiuSC-s5wwl8T2nBJIsnOu7xeFXUEVJnhB28UqCtlO_NRQcE4dbCT-PGxSdq1z7-7KLACRgrPU0M9tx-fkjmSMljx7c9gpW_3juZ6WzMwNbHNqzaSH2kVzIYGHfK1E8Bw\/s936\/TahoeApr2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"South Lake Tahoe\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgrckoKLGjsChdbZ1oEbnUcQGcdRsSfJ_U-AdLGaaPZA7zoleCsVHiuSC-s5wwl8T2nBJIsnOu7xeFXUEVJnhB28UqCtlO_NRQcE4dbCT-PGxSdq1z7-7KLACRgrPU0M9tx-fkjmSMljx7c9gpW_3juZ6WzMwNbHNqzaSH2kVzIYGHfK1E8Bw\/s320\/TahoeApr2022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFollowing the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECurrently inventory is still very low, but up from the record low set in February 2022, and up slightly year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; Prices are up 12.7% YoY (but the YoY change has been trending down).\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis will be interesting to watch, but \u003Cb\u003Eso far there isn't little evidence of a 2nd home slowdown in these numbers\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7403462497876149868\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7403462497876149868","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7403462497876149868"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7403462497876149868"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/second-home-market-south-lake-tahoe-in.html","title":"Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in April"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgrckoKLGjsChdbZ1oEbnUcQGcdRsSfJ_U-AdLGaaPZA7zoleCsVHiuSC-s5wwl8T2nBJIsnOu7xeFXUEVJnhB28UqCtlO_NRQcE4dbCT-PGxSdq1z7-7KLACRgrPU0M9tx-fkjmSMljx7c9gpW_3juZ6WzMwNbHNqzaSH2kVzIYGHfK1E8Bw\/s72-c\/TahoeApr2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5799431677732382824"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-09T21:10:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-09T21:10:00.338-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: Q1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-05092022\"\u003ERates Start High, But Improved Significantly By The Afternoon\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E2022 has been the year of volatility for mortgage rates with most of the swings resulting in successive runs to long-term highs.  Every now and then, however, rates have a good day.  Today was one of those days. [\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/\"\u003E30 year fixed 5.52%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ETuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB \u003Cb\u003ESmall Business Optimism Index\u003C\/b\u003E for April.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: \u003Cb\u003EQ1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E220.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66,564\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E58,569\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,466\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,823\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E323\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E324\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjM6SnEDPdbAB-irkUKBOoI4VZWAA7X8b7B4op_ZxekVRcjwRiiwrehIvedoF9QCMenmuPFwt6_jur9bFUGNo3jG8_4a0wkm1ZuTaY6VYWbozoOStuIWJxvQZEoEHB5dVPoSU9g7bMG4uabW6SDQ3EF118TdI3ztCbQq53uJ7qRMJnEQ_uYIQ\/s1213\/COVIDDeathsMay92022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjM6SnEDPdbAB-irkUKBOoI4VZWAA7X8b7B4op_ZxekVRcjwRiiwrehIvedoF9QCMenmuPFwt6_jur9bFUGNo3jG8_4a0wkm1ZuTaY6VYWbozoOStuIWJxvQZEoEHB5dVPoSU9g7bMG4uabW6SDQ3EF118TdI3ztCbQq53uJ7qRMJnEQ_uYIQ\/s320\/COVIDDeathsMay92022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ENew cases have more than doubled from the recent low, and hospitalizations are increasing week-over-week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAverage daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5799431677732382824\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5799431677732382824","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5799431677732382824"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5799431677732382824"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/tuesday-q1-quarterly-report-on.html","title":"Tuesday: Q1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjM6SnEDPdbAB-irkUKBOoI4VZWAA7X8b7B4op_ZxekVRcjwRiiwrehIvedoF9QCMenmuPFwt6_jur9bFUGNo3jG8_4a0wkm1ZuTaY6VYWbozoOStuIWJxvQZEoEHB5dVPoSU9g7bMG4uabW6SDQ3EF118TdI3ztCbQq53uJ7qRMJnEQ_uYIQ\/s72-c\/COVIDDeathsMay92022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1532505517555723043"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-09T15:09:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-09T15:09:43.417-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Homebuilder Comments in April: “Demand is slowing\", \"Investors pulling back\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/homebuilder-comments-in-april-demand\"\u003EHomebuilder Comments in April: “Demand is slowing\", \"Investors pulling back\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ERead these comments.  These are clear signs of a slowdown.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome homebuilder comments courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RickPalaciosJr\"\u003ERick Palacios Jr.\u003C\/a\u003E, Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!):\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Dallas builder: “Interest lists are shrinking or \u003Cb\u003Ebuyers are truly pausing\u003C\/b\u003E.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E#SanAntonio builder: “\u003Cb\u003ETraffic has been cut in half since the hike in rates\u003C\/b\u003E.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Raleigh builder: “\u003Cb\u003EInvestor activity has slowed dramatically\u003C\/b\u003E.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EAllentown builder: “Double hit of higher home prices and higher mortgage interest rates clearly has reduced the number of qualified buyers. \u003Cb\u003EOur waiting list is almost zero as of April 30th\u003C\/b\u003E.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Philadelphia builder: “Between higher interest rates and higher sales prices, along with high gas prices and a volatile stock market, we’re seeing a pullback in our sales.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Tampa builder: “\u003Cb\u003EWe’ve seen a significant shift in buyer behavior in the last 30 days\u003C\/b\u003E. Florida was on fire and pricing has really come to a high point, and people are not willing to pay the prices anymore.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Indianapolis builder: “\u003Cb\u003ETraffic has significantly declined\u003C\/b\u003E and people have paused on moving forward with purchases.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1532505517555723043\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1532505517555723043","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1532505517555723043"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1532505517555723043"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/homebuilder-comments-in-april-demand-is.html","title":"Homebuilder Comments in April: “Demand is slowing\", \"Investors pulling back\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8227454224643998031"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-09T14:06:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-09T14:06:33.080-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fed Survey: Banks reported Eased Standards, Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate Loans"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Federal Reserve: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/data\/sloos\/sloos-202204.htm\"\u003EThe April 2022 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe April 2022 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the first quarter of 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERegarding loans to businesses, respondents to the survey reported, on balance, unchanged standards for commercial and industrial (C\u0026amp;I) loans to firms of all sizes, after having eased them over the previous four quarters, while demand strengthened over the first quarter. Meanwhile, banks reported unchanged standards and demand for most commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories except for those secured by multifamily residential properties, for which they eased standards and demand strengthened on net.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBanks also responded to a set of special questions about changes in lending policies and demand for CRE loans over the past year. Banks reportedly eased some lending terms across all CRE loan categories, including the maximum loan size and maturity, the spread of loan rates over their cost of funds, the length of interest-only periods, and the market areas served.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor loans to households, \u003Cb\u003Ebanks eased standards across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans\u003C\/b\u003E and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) over the first quarter, while also \u003Cb\u003Ereporting weaker demand for all types of RRE loans\u003C\/b\u003E but stronger demand for HELOCs on net. In addition, banks eased standards for card loans and auto loans, while demand reportedly strengthened for all consumer loan types over the first quarter\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh7CV0GvB0qamcfMXXppRSV4o6C8byxxPnfYA55-HV3aLy1QhcSlENltXoeFhPAinjzOY6dIW-QNZJ6cN0_Zs5t7LV3WyIHuf6_SYXp9IdpzhLobRuiVCGd18UF0rW7RqgJ_SDPDdUVQpAoOXVcxseyvCTFY6X4YSNQwLdgVZmwzILtnLxDXQ\/s738\/FedQ12022Standards.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Senior Loan Officer Survey, CRE\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh7CV0GvB0qamcfMXXppRSV4o6C8byxxPnfYA55-HV3aLy1QhcSlENltXoeFhPAinjzOY6dIW-QNZJ6cN0_Zs5t7LV3WyIHuf6_SYXp9IdpzhLobRuiVCGd18UF0rW7RqgJ_SDPDdUVQpAoOXVcxseyvCTFY6X4YSNQwLdgVZmwzILtnLxDXQ\/s320\/FedQ12022Standards.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph on Residential Real Estate lending is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/data\/documents\/sloos-202204-charts.pdf\"\u003ESenior Loan Officer Survey Charts\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis shows that banks have eased standards for residential real estate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows demand for residential real estate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg3FrBhsSmppE9WEpty_xVr-Q-P5UCLLRCqc6defAYXVPwCiJPK-ZiUj5NsSL6yHT125V21bkmORtDKMB8pp5u3EnKwEVwr_EtH7fg5a7I7lxhKUdjugQK2aDom3RApdNTh4RKKrsJWt7vu-kSyfO5VrGwgC1OQY9JCEh1sozbR0H8DiOfdRw\/s736\/FedQ12022Demand.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Senior Loan Officer Survey, CRE\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg3FrBhsSmppE9WEpty_xVr-Q-P5UCLLRCqc6defAYXVPwCiJPK-ZiUj5NsSL6yHT125V21bkmORtDKMB8pp5u3EnKwEVwr_EtH7fg5a7I7lxhKUdjugQK2aDom3RApdNTh4RKKrsJWt7vu-kSyfO5VrGwgC1OQY9JCEh1sozbR0H8DiOfdRw\/s320\/FedQ12022Demand.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis was was Q1.   Demand is probably dropping sharply in Q2."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8227454224643998031\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8227454224643998031","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8227454224643998031"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8227454224643998031"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/fed-survey-banks-reported-eased.html","title":"Fed Survey: Banks reported Eased Standards, Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate Loans"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh7CV0GvB0qamcfMXXppRSV4o6C8byxxPnfYA55-HV3aLy1QhcSlENltXoeFhPAinjzOY6dIW-QNZJ6cN0_Zs5t7LV3WyIHuf6_SYXp9IdpzhLobRuiVCGd18UF0rW7RqgJ_SDPDdUVQpAoOXVcxseyvCTFY6X4YSNQwLdgVZmwzILtnLxDXQ\/s72-c\/FedQ12022Standards.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5097435175395119921"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-09T11:08:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-09T11:08:25.951-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Market: Where it's at. Where it's going. May 2022 Update"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-market-where-its-at-where\"\u003EHousing Market: Where it's at. Where it's going.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EHouse prices are \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/corelogic-house-prices-up-record-209.html\"\u003Eup 20% year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E.   \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-a25\"\u003EInventory is near record lows\u003C\/a\u003E.  And real estate agents are still selling homes well above list price.  And on credit, lending standards have been \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/medialibrary\/interactives\/householdcredit\/data\/pdf\/HHDC_2021Q4\"\u003Ereasonably solid\u003C\/a\u003E, and \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/mba-mortgage-delinquencies-decrease-in.html\"\u003Emortgage delinquencies\u003C\/a\u003E are very low.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHowever, mortgage rates are up sharply (from 3% six months ago to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage-rates\/30-year-fixed\"\u003E5.64% today\u003C\/a\u003E), and we are starting to see an \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-afd\"\u003Eincrease in inventory levels\u003C\/a\u003E.  House prices are too high based on fundamentals like \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio-59c\"\u003Eprice-to-income and price-to-rent\u003C\/a\u003E.  And some investors appear to be pulling back due to higher cap rates, and some builders are reporting buyers actually want to negotiate on price!\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn mortgage rates, it is the change in monthly payments that impacts housing. Monthly payments include principal, interest, taxes, insurance (PITI), and sometimes HOA fees (Homeowners Association). We could also include maintenance, utilities and other costs.  The following graph shows the year-over-year change in principal \u0026amp; interest (P\u0026amp;I) assuming a fixed loan amount since 1977. Currently P\u0026amp;I is up about 35% year-over-year for a fixed amount (this doesn’t take into account the change in house prices).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEguAKmmRwDPJssXnLnR_vrzGSUFAeY26edzq31ooGLKaJQBxmDYlnv-aYngBDA2TNiZEvYS_mZ5yLknH3qXp5RQAGQOIeJdijuvb91h3y66-ummHGDAkXMU54cd59o_QAwfDlYulUCyFIqhtFVG2WPazrsdIn_KnbapdATThD1j_oIvxOOhrQ\/s996\/YoYChangePITI.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Active Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEguAKmmRwDPJssXnLnR_vrzGSUFAeY26edzq31ooGLKaJQBxmDYlnv-aYngBDA2TNiZEvYS_mZ5yLknH3qXp5RQAGQOIeJdijuvb91h3y66-ummHGDAkXMU54cd59o_QAwfDlYulUCyFIqhtFVG2WPazrsdIn_KnbapdATThD1j_oIvxOOhrQ\/s320\/YoYChangePITI.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe last time we saw an increase like this in monthly payments was in the ‘78 to’82 period.  This is one reason I’ve been suggesting \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-dont-compare-the-current\"\u003EHousing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5097435175395119921\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5097435175395119921","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5097435175395119921"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5097435175395119921"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/housing-market-where-its-at-where-its.html","title":"Housing Market: Where it's at. Where it's going. May 2022 Update"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEguAKmmRwDPJssXnLnR_vrzGSUFAeY26edzq31ooGLKaJQBxmDYlnv-aYngBDA2TNiZEvYS_mZ5yLknH3qXp5RQAGQOIeJdijuvb91h3y66-ummHGDAkXMU54cd59o_QAwfDlYulUCyFIqhtFVG2WPazrsdIn_KnbapdATThD1j_oIvxOOhrQ\/s72-c\/YoYChangePITI.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5966880890857886419"},"published":{"$t":"2022-05-09T09:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-05-09T09:00:06.358-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Inventory May 9th Update: Inventory Down 1.6% Year-over-Year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ETracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring.  Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is \u003Cb\u003Enow up 27%\u003C\/b\u003E since then.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj0MSout_MpSFzq5PXrXPCmHhLs1jRGFBGqRnMMmiwgWGB9AOTjejtLv12a4ArN1nCgUtYoVWESbzdHe0EuFvPlRth_J86gqd1SHQ6Fq8CIWNrDCP4CC2BVn15b7i6jEX7AqqtVZVarcqGyY0GkP4f1mUUG47JexeITu6Ao88dX40DvINL63w\/s1189\/AltosMay92022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj0MSout_MpSFzq5PXrXPCmHhLs1jRGFBGqRnMMmiwgWGB9AOTjejtLv12a4ArN1nCgUtYoVWESbzdHe0EuFvPlRth_J86gqd1SHQ6Fq8CIWNrDCP4CC2BVn15b7i6jEX7AqqtVZVarcqGyY0GkP4f1mUUG47JexeITu6Ao88dX40DvINL63w\/s320\/AltosMay92022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs of May 6th, inventory was at 305 thousand (7-day average), compared to 292 thousand the prior week. \u003Cb\u003EInventory was up 4.5% from the previous week\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELast year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 - very late in the year. This year, by this measure, inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is down 1.6% from 310 thousand, but compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 58.3% from 732 thousand.\u0026nbsp; Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 66.1% from 902 thousand.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHere are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E1. The seasonal bottom (already happened on March 4th for Altos)✅\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2. Inventory up year-over-year (likely next week)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 58% according to Altos)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E4. Inventory back to 1999 levels (currently down 66%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor the second milestone, here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 4 20px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003Cthead\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek Ending\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYoY Change\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/thead\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E12\/31\/2021\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-30.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E1\/7\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-26.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E1\/14\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-28.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E1\/21\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-27.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E1\/28\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-25.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2\/4\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-27.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2\/11\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-27.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2\/18\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-25.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2\/25\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-24.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E3\/4\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-24.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E3\/11\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-21.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E3\/18\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-21.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E3\/25\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-19.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E4\/1\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-17.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E    \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E4\/8\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-14.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E    \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E4\/15\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-13.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E4\/22\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-11.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E    \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E4\/29\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-4.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E5\/6\/2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-1.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgBLdFVG1HRZChmB-Zr-T4n6auTxpT8eQqzXY7rptMFIPau9mY0m3wzIUkEgk8mwW_2xdHuXUAfIGhcAIWFUSAj-rv98cYFNsjUZZQ0awyOt0x7HYqHYp8O_oASPdMu9g6WVi27IxM_NfKWdThhDvkcon5M8rdk2nDjEkzJ3IBKmns3RKtrOg\/s740\/AltosYoYMay92022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgBLdFVG1HRZChmB-Zr-T4n6auTxpT8eQqzXY7rptMFIPau9mY0m3wzIUkEgk8mwW_2xdHuXUAfIGhcAIWFUSAj-rv98cYFNsjUZZQ0awyOt0x7HYqHYp8O_oASPdMu9g6WVi27IxM_NfKWdThhDvkcon5M8rdk2nDjEkzJ3IBKmns3RKtrOg\/s320\/AltosYoYMay92022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in the Altos data.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe blue trend line is from the beginning of the year, and the red trend line is over the last 8 weeks.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECurrently it appears \u003Cb\u003Einventory will be up year-over-year next week\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5966880890857886419\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5966880890857886419","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5966880890857886419"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5966880890857886419"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/05\/housing-inventory-may-9th-update.html","title":"Housing Inventory May 9th Update: Inventory Down 1.6% Year-over-Year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj0MSout_MpSFzq5PXrXPCmHhLs1jRGFBGqRnMMmiwgWGB9AOTjejtLv12a4ArN1nCgUtYoVWESbzdHe0EuFvPlRth_J86gqd1SHQ6Fq8CIWNrDCP4CC2BVn15b7i6jEX7AqqtVZVarcqGyY0GkP4f1mUUG47JexeITu6Ao88dX40DvINL63w\/s72-c\/AltosMay92022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});