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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"31407"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8680627586609994861"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-07T08:40:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-07T08:40:20.130-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"June Employment Report: 209 thousand Jobs, 3.6% Unemployment Rate"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003EBLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETotal nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment \nrate changed little at 3.6 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. \nEmployment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and \nconstruction.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 77,000, from\n+294,000 to +217,000, and the change for May was revised down by 33,000, from +339,000 to \n+306,000. \u003Cb\u003EWith these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 110,000 lower than\npreviously reported\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_N1uZ59LJvtwMv6HoHAmuOuqwkd_XKYqZjkPRXmis1MNX4A3yRRWeMUKg6Np_YJnaQPtENbrabQrDRShsBrlLX8vVAzX7Q7pVzWDu_JjtDJ9RRaUZw80b5DR4jn7l8ACshAsZaPeCvvBBQcq1HqtIuYkJjANOCoS77H_Xr4FQ1LtVJytFXGXK\/s923\/JobsJune2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment per month\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_N1uZ59LJvtwMv6HoHAmuOuqwkd_XKYqZjkPRXmis1MNX4A3yRRWeMUKg6Np_YJnaQPtENbrabQrDRShsBrlLX8vVAzX7Q7pVzWDu_JjtDJ9RRaUZw80b5DR4jn7l8ACshAsZaPeCvvBBQcq1HqtIuYkJjANOCoS77H_Xr4FQ1LtVJytFXGXK\/s320\/JobsJune2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ETotal payrolls increased by 209 thousand in June.\u0026nbsp; Private payrolls increased by 149 thousand, and public payrolls increased 60 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPayrolls for April and May were revised down 110 thousand, combined.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiFFQSSx3USYEuY72ofBIVk0WHzRPhaowIlUDdFM8-D8kfkF092Wtoa4eii1Gdic9fonU6cSigz6P6beQ_zzuxSrtZ6InubW0loVMZ4GaASGZ-i0DWT4RdSyDbJnr9pwCyzF4mzPRpJo_58Anb26yEHj642_R5B_3aIYsN1CKI4ibPVSJx_Yv63\/s1131\/EmployYoYJune2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiFFQSSx3USYEuY72ofBIVk0WHzRPhaowIlUDdFM8-D8kfkF092Wtoa4eii1Gdic9fonU6cSigz6P6beQ_zzuxSrtZ6InubW0loVMZ4GaASGZ-i0DWT4RdSyDbJnr9pwCyzF4mzPRpJo_58Anb26yEHj642_R5B_3aIYsN1CKI4ibPVSJx_Yv63\/s320\/EmployYoYJune2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\nThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn June, the year-over-year change was 3.79 million jobs.\u0026nbsp; Employment was up significantly year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj6nF1jPDY3ZP1hewViAIs8Jn6dCqvzyg1OUu9O0uwoFQOCH4YDHmbuwldfVvm29j9GK1fwYDlfXwFDIruzAJCEJIOwgiRyN2JQorN4Iz4NBHImk4jAth85vM8Nu7f3esYDtq6xvMKFW-YLmzONSA7tbB_c6u9SMQwKp7VkallrtS4ph1RAKFvk\/s1057\/EmployPopJune2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj6nF1jPDY3ZP1hewViAIs8Jn6dCqvzyg1OUu9O0uwoFQOCH4YDHmbuwldfVvm29j9GK1fwYDlfXwFDIruzAJCEJIOwgiRyN2JQorN4Iz4NBHImk4jAth85vM8Nu7f3esYDtq6xvMKFW-YLmzONSA7tbB_c6u9SMQwKp7VkallrtS4ph1RAKFvk\/s320\/EmployPopJune2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\nThe Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.6% in June, from 62.6% in May. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.3% from 60.3% (blue line).\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgOEh3LDw4lX3qhPxTde6IsRJQsWimqSvOluproY2SwYB50u4MVSnOs7uGmGDq3JHvvFEZR60RBfkXukworRO-X2kq4amiV0RK_J_ZRaTCSEh9vdpzVp9uFweuJmKf0KyzjcsN2QXZSwj7YzVL1_tVG1dne9WIrltVSGZ-k63Ox-ooX6QN1J9yc\/s1008\/UnemployJune2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"unemployment rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgOEh3LDw4lX3qhPxTde6IsRJQsWimqSvOluproY2SwYB50u4MVSnOs7uGmGDq3JHvvFEZR60RBfkXukworRO-X2kq4amiV0RK_J_ZRaTCSEh9vdpzVp9uFweuJmKf0KyzjcsN2QXZSwj7YzVL1_tVG1dne9WIrltVSGZ-k63Ox-ooX6QN1J9yc\/s320\/UnemployJune2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe unemployment rate decreased in June to 3.6% from 3.7% in May. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was at consensus expectations; however, April and May payrolls were revised down by 110,000 combined.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EI'll have more later ...\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8680627586609994861\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8680627586609994861","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8680627586609994861"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8680627586609994861"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/june-employment-report-209-thousand.html","title":"June Employment Report: 209 thousand Jobs, 3.6% Unemployment Rate"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_N1uZ59LJvtwMv6HoHAmuOuqwkd_XKYqZjkPRXmis1MNX4A3yRRWeMUKg6Np_YJnaQPtENbrabQrDRShsBrlLX8vVAzX7Q7pVzWDu_JjtDJ9RRaUZw80b5DR4jn7l8ACshAsZaPeCvvBBQcq1HqtIuYkJjANOCoS77H_Xr4FQ1LtVJytFXGXK\/s72-c\/JobsJune2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-517423639171036864"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-06T20:38:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-06T20:38:00.134-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg8m7BrbCuwquKsDgsK0a--LI6zj4gAS3y_MKwZsZYT2pymdUPCa7C0qhJ07F1A853hZxQ1bLgHtzQlcAXBWKX6QyS8hKppJa7tbcdhxy6qNHiIKfQTeud70pAr5tfbkRzp9ygRD4CK8aEwaiLySbTvii8GsAr2vpuIpF-zE49VW5nVU_d5txoO\/s394\/RatesJuly62023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg8m7BrbCuwquKsDgsK0a--LI6zj4gAS3y_MKwZsZYT2pymdUPCa7C0qhJ07F1A853hZxQ1bLgHtzQlcAXBWKX6QyS8hKppJa7tbcdhxy6qNHiIKfQTeud70pAr5tfbkRzp9ygRD4CK8aEwaiLySbTvii8GsAr2vpuIpF-zE49VW5nVU_d5txoO\/s320\/RatesJuly62023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for June. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/517423639171036864\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=517423639171036864","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/517423639171036864"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/517423639171036864"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/friday-employment-report.html","title":"Friday: Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg8m7BrbCuwquKsDgsK0a--LI6zj4gAS3y_MKwZsZYT2pymdUPCa7C0qhJ07F1A853hZxQ1bLgHtzQlcAXBWKX6QyS8hKppJa7tbcdhxy6qNHiIKfQTeud70pAr5tfbkRzp9ygRD4CK8aEwaiLySbTvii8GsAr2vpuIpF-zE49VW5nVU_d5txoO\/s72-c\/RatesJuly62023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-314051000615029154"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-06T17:45:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-06T17:45:00.138-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"June Employment Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June.  The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThere were 339,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 3.7%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom BofA economists:\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 250k in June after adding 339k jobs in May. ... Given our forecasts of the participation rate and nonfarm payroll growth, we expect the \nunemployment rate will fall from 3.7% to 3.6%.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman Sachs following the strong ADP report: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 250k in June (mom sa). Job growth tends to pick up in June when the labor market is tight—reflecting strong hiring of youth summer workers ... We estimate the unemployment rate pulled back by one tenth to 3.6% (consensus also 3.6%) reflecting a rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation at 62.6%.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EADP Report:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/\"\u003EADP employment report\u003C\/a\u003E showed 497,000 private sector jobs were added in June.\u0026nbsp; This suggests job gains well above consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EISM Surveys:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes \u003Cb\u003Ebased on the number of firms hiring\u003C\/b\u003E (not the number of hires).\u0026nbsp; The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/ism-manufacturing-index-decreased-to.html\"\u003EISM® manufacturing employment index\u003C\/a\u003E decreased in June to 48.1%, down from 51.4% last month. \u0026nbsp; This would suggest about 30,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 42,000 manufacturing jobs lost in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/services\/june\/\"\u003EISM® services employment index\u003C\/a\u003E increased in June to 53.1%, up from 49.2% last month. \u0026nbsp; This would suggest about 160,000 jobs added in the service sector.  Combined this suggests job gains of 120,000, well below consensus expectations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EUnemployment Claims:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html\"\u003Eweekly claims report\u003C\/a\u003E showed a sharp increase in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (includes the 12th of the month) from 246,000 in May to 265,000 in June.\u0026nbsp; This suggests more layoffs in June than in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E•\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003ECOVID:\u003C\/b\u003E As far as the pandemic, the number of patients hospitalized\u0026nbsp;during the reference week in June was around 6,400, down from 8,300 in May.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EConclusion:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;All the key indicators suggest another solid employment report in June.\u0026nbsp; We've seen an upside surprise in employment almost every month, however someday we will see a downside surprise.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/314051000615029154\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=314051000615029154","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/314051000615029154"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/314051000615029154"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/june-employment-preview.html","title":"June Employment Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1187637819246240951"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-06T14:56:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-06T14:56:55.680-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Early Look at Local Housing Markets in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/early-look-at-local-housing-markets-81d\"\u003EEarly Look at Local Housing Markets in June\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThis is a look at a few early reporting local markets in May. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nClosed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 6.4% range in April and May - compared to the 5% range the previous year - closed sales were down year-over-year in June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjR7tYvP_x1AyQSLIqFt666coGnBnh92soiseXQAh0qosTN799yJI44yobUia-c_MC7c9Ac3BwVlOpLutopY99kcsh0InBI-PmLSvQTXugBqA0zRRBnZyHcHHqoUwkfHjbh6ZjbbiDbTpTX9tpYqXxqeTnIMmNKph3G5CMwPks79DAhuErzozaw\/s515\/ClosedJune2023V1.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Sales June 2023\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjR7tYvP_x1AyQSLIqFt666coGnBnh92soiseXQAh0qosTN799yJI44yobUia-c_MC7c9Ac3BwVlOpLutopY99kcsh0InBI-PmLSvQTXugBqA0zRRBnZyHcHHqoUwkfHjbh6ZjbbiDbTpTX9tpYqXxqeTnIMmNKph3G5CMwPks79DAhuErzozaw\/s320\/ClosedJune2023V1.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIn June, sales in these markets were down 20.4%. In May, these same markets were down 24.7% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is a smaller YoY decline NSA than in May for these early reporting markets. Note that there were the same number of selling days each year in June 2022 and June 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nA key factor in the smaller YoY decline was that sales were steadily declining last year due to higher mortgage rates. ... \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was a just a few early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come! \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1187637819246240951\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1187637819246240951","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1187637819246240951"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1187637819246240951"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/early-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"Early Look at Local Housing Markets in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjR7tYvP_x1AyQSLIqFt666coGnBnh92soiseXQAh0qosTN799yJI44yobUia-c_MC7c9Ac3BwVlOpLutopY99kcsh0InBI-PmLSvQTXugBqA0zRRBnZyHcHHqoUwkfHjbh6ZjbbiDbTpTX9tpYqXxqeTnIMmNKph3G5CMwPks79DAhuErzozaw\/s72-c\/ClosedJune2023V1.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1626963821877668988"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-06T10:05:00.019-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-06T10:05:44.649-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 9.8 million in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the BLS: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/jolts.nr0.htm\"\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Summary\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe number of job openings decreased to 9.8 million on the last business day of May\u003C\/b\u003E, the U.S. Bureau \nof Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little \nchanged at 6.2 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) increased, \nwhile layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nThe following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis series started in December 2000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. \u003Cb\u003EThis report is for May the employment report this Friday will be for June.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgtsVJHtc0u4kCecpIREsJx3zCW2pF9vfeFQAeDVRtXm688mboBVjWS4kn9VDCQKw6euID5UbTXuM9fpdkmpG2Db9ezm8OcyNGXmgWa6pCMVE3-3NTFzxNpIVeu6pb89lXQm8ly8ADlJlHqr_cPylPC4l_QmX7SXnNhOX0cjP3NxxjLiulMcuIW\/s1129\/JOLTSMay2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgtsVJHtc0u4kCecpIREsJx3zCW2pF9vfeFQAeDVRtXm688mboBVjWS4kn9VDCQKw6euID5UbTXuM9fpdkmpG2Db9ezm8OcyNGXmgWa6pCMVE3-3NTFzxNpIVeu6pb89lXQm8ly8ADlJlHqr_cPylPC4l_QmX7SXnNhOX0cjP3NxxjLiulMcuIW\/s320\/JOLTSMay2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.\u0026nbsp; When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nJobs openings decreased in May to 9.8 million from 10.3 million in April.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe number of job openings (black) were down 14% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nQuits were down 5% year-over-year.  These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for \"quits\").\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1626963821877668988\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1626963821877668988","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1626963821877668988"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1626963821877668988"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/bls-job-openings-decreased-to-98.html","title":"BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 9.8 million in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgtsVJHtc0u4kCecpIREsJx3zCW2pF9vfeFQAeDVRtXm688mboBVjWS4kn9VDCQKw6euID5UbTXuM9fpdkmpG2Db9ezm8OcyNGXmgWa6pCMVE3-3NTFzxNpIVeu6pb89lXQm8ly8ADlJlHqr_cPylPC4l_QmX7SXnNhOX0cjP3NxxjLiulMcuIW\/s72-c\/JOLTSMay2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8086554965666019201"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-06T08:47:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-06T08:47:52.197-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Trade Deficit Decreased to $69.0 Billion in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/foreign-trade\/Press-Release\/current_press_release\/ft900.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\n The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that \n\u003Cb\u003Ethe goods and services deficit was $69.0 billion in May\u003C\/b\u003E, down $5.5 billion from $74.4 billion in April, \nrevised. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMay exports were $247.1 billion, $2.1 billion less than April exports. May imports were $316.1 billion, $7.5 \nbillion less than April imports.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEguvTtjGlRTNRzy6zgvIEDDSNO35iP50Y1G6FOcJXJPcfGdrSuzS8dzXT7aAvy6AT2WP15maDBezZP9p00SC6QUcIoUFsguiI3mH3UM8XO8ZmL957juJYTKbsnDQQXC0OWRSpmB_CszsFFklJsRiacjPj1hsOr5JtzEUTwr9bfkHxx8vP_zDdBN\/s935\/TradeMay2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Exports Imports\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEguvTtjGlRTNRzy6zgvIEDDSNO35iP50Y1G6FOcJXJPcfGdrSuzS8dzXT7aAvy6AT2WP15maDBezZP9p00SC6QUcIoUFsguiI3mH3UM8XO8ZmL957juJYTKbsnDQQXC0OWRSpmB_CszsFFklJsRiacjPj1hsOr5JtzEUTwr9bfkHxx8vP_zDdBN\/s320\/TradeMay2023.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EExports and imports decreased in May. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExports are down 3% year-over-year; imports are down 7% year-over-year.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBoth imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - and both have been decreasing recently.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjT6LKmjtwqwxRB9CE23MdY17kes1XIRQ9sW3YS7gpXF70fllGCwrfyVbd-lRQcdlNGwZGlbbgiLHH_444aIwyY7i8DVPAwSJiO9exz9BkmVbSEOGyzopOnAZ5CQqK15_SfgEJkObS2_hoRy9yW0sojgwookdX9c_Pq4k3NecbHtneHkXV3A2Rv\/s1013\/TradeDeficitMay2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Deficit\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjT6LKmjtwqwxRB9CE23MdY17kes1XIRQ9sW3YS7gpXF70fllGCwrfyVbd-lRQcdlNGwZGlbbgiLHH_444aIwyY7i8DVPAwSJiO9exz9BkmVbSEOGyzopOnAZ5CQqK15_SfgEJkObS2_hoRy9yW0sojgwookdX9c_Pq4k3NecbHtneHkXV3A2Rv\/s320\/TradeDeficitMay2023.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have picked up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe trade deficit with China decreased to $25.2 billion in March, from $31.5 billion a year ago.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe trade deficit was slightly less than the consensus forecast.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8086554965666019201\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8086554965666019201","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8086554965666019201"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8086554965666019201"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/trade-deficit-decreased-to-690-billion.html","title":"Trade Deficit Decreased to $69.0 Billion in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEguvTtjGlRTNRzy6zgvIEDDSNO35iP50Y1G6FOcJXJPcfGdrSuzS8dzXT7aAvy6AT2WP15maDBezZP9p00SC6QUcIoUFsguiI3mH3UM8XO8ZmL957juJYTKbsnDQQXC0OWRSpmB_CszsFFklJsRiacjPj1hsOr5JtzEUTwr9bfkHxx8vP_zDdBN\/s72-c\/TradeMay2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8605147303682953584"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-06T08:34:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-06T08:34:08.262-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 248,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nIn the week ending July 1, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000\u003C\/b\u003E, an increase of 12,000 \nfrom the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 239,000 to 236,000. \nThe 4-week moving average was 253,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous \nweek's average was revised down by 750 from 257,500 to 256,750. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh8SPauqYF-pzFRqEJTMeQIfxXUE2BiURp2PWy2FvixIkoAVLL0SmvAt6D7rXdU1yzE8c13KQfUjFgIWShVhUtxz0iZXZmjjedxG_hHj4cqxpiVErJ5pYoPOWs5R0f8Pp4dBnQ1wHde7pNmve9VuG3990SHYwDtcXr--ZDftS8KtxsgZfxHbgu7\/s1080\/WeeklyClaimsJuly62023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh8SPauqYF-pzFRqEJTMeQIfxXUE2BiURp2PWy2FvixIkoAVLL0SmvAt6D7rXdU1yzE8c13KQfUjFgIWShVhUtxz0iZXZmjjedxG_hHj4cqxpiVErJ5pYoPOWs5R0f8Pp4dBnQ1wHde7pNmve9VuG3990SHYwDtcXr--ZDftS8KtxsgZfxHbgu7\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsJuly62023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 253,250.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous week was revised down.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWeekly claims were above the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8605147303682953584\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8605147303682953584","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8605147303682953584"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8605147303682953584"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 248,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh8SPauqYF-pzFRqEJTMeQIfxXUE2BiURp2PWy2FvixIkoAVLL0SmvAt6D7rXdU1yzE8c13KQfUjFgIWShVhUtxz0iZXZmjjedxG_hHj4cqxpiVErJ5pYoPOWs5R0f8Pp4dBnQ1wHde7pNmve9VuG3990SHYwDtcXr--ZDftS8KtxsgZfxHbgu7\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsJuly62023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-291007692532013623"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-06T08:25:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-06T08:25:53.660-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ADP: Private Employment Increased 497,000 in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From ADP: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/\"\u003EADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by\n497,000 Jobs in June; Annual Pay was Up 6.4%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrivate sector employment increased by 497,000 jobs in June\u003C\/b\u003E and \nannual pay was up 6.4 percent year-over-year, according to the June ADP® National Employment \nReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab \n(“Stanford Lab”).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Consumer-facing service industries had a strong June, aligning to push job creation higher than \nexpected,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “But wage growth continues to ebb in these \nsame industries, and hiring likely is cresting after a late-cycle surge.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003E\nemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was way above the consensus forecast of 236,000.  The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 200 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in June."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/291007692532013623\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=291007692532013623","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/291007692532013623"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/291007692532013623"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/adp-private-employment-increased-497000.html","title":"ADP: Private Employment Increased 497,000 in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4891713016614144373"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-06T07:00:00.022-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-06T07:00:00.151-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nMortgage applications decreased 4.4 percent from one week \nearlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications \nSurvey for the week ending June 30, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth \nholiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.4 percent on \na seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6\npercent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous \nweek and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase \nIndex decreased 5 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent\ncompared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E22 percent lower than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level in a month last week as rates for most loan types \nincreased. As mortgage-Treasury spreads remained wide, the 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.85 \npercent, the highest rate since the end of May,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief \nEconomist. “Purchase applications decreased for the first time in a month, as homebuyers remained \nsensitive to rate changes. Rates are still over a percentage point higher than a year ago, and housing \naffordability is still a challenge in many parts of the country. However, the average loan size for a \npurchase application declined to $423,500 – its lowest level since January 2023. This was likely driven by \nreduced purchase activity in some high-price markets and more activity in some of the lower price tiers as \nbuyers searched for more affordable options.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances \n($726,200 or less) increased to 6.85 percent from 6.75 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.64\n(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiflP8ZQE1oFxAFok-re0sHuD0IUnO_9WzdHjMNo1h43IjfIur4ZfCehAU7pOUpCw15319jG6fLafD4QyZnljrd1Gn7vFGyBBwWczzoxsBqp84g32ITAVebpfDVfPKu7C6CVtdoPNbFIh7HHpWF8dC8glJbL5JT1Je-2BTAQ4ObnNb7WyoP1gh-\/s1090\/MBAJuly62023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiflP8ZQE1oFxAFok-re0sHuD0IUnO_9WzdHjMNo1h43IjfIur4ZfCehAU7pOUpCw15319jG6fLafD4QyZnljrd1Gn7vFGyBBwWczzoxsBqp84g32ITAVebpfDVfPKu7C6CVtdoPNbFIh7HHpWF8dC8glJbL5JT1Je-2BTAQ4ObnNb7WyoP1gh-\/s320\/MBAJuly62023.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 22% year-over-year unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp; This is at the lowest level since May and close to the lowest level since the mid-'90s!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiAfX_U9EKyw5J7kZkH4Rbv2md0T43ADbWlLUOnEUlCMImmxTKxYw0QKFjVd_zoVWaNaWEXPawOsnb58BATNEuZlx66WdsYc58-lIrebjCNjhT2wMovhTUCME1IAs_0bmCV8y4bvM_-CTjt-3XMe6--6QXJNvyDt3kmop4-pkOiSkQV5VjGZgqy\/s1082\/MBARefiJuly62023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiAfX_U9EKyw5J7kZkH4Rbv2md0T43ADbWlLUOnEUlCMImmxTKxYw0QKFjVd_zoVWaNaWEXPawOsnb58BATNEuZlx66WdsYc58-lIrebjCNjhT2wMovhTUCME1IAs_0bmCV8y4bvM_-CTjt-3XMe6--6QXJNvyDt3kmop4-pkOiSkQV5VjGZgqy\/s320\/MBARefiJuly62023.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and has mostly flat lined at a low level since then.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4891713016614144373\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4891713016614144373","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4891713016614144373"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4891713016614144373"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/mba-mortgage-applications-decreased-in.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiflP8ZQE1oFxAFok-re0sHuD0IUnO_9WzdHjMNo1h43IjfIur4ZfCehAU7pOUpCw15319jG6fLafD4QyZnljrd1Gn7vFGyBBwWczzoxsBqp84g32ITAVebpfDVfPKu7C6CVtdoPNbFIh7HHpWF8dC8glJbL5JT1Je-2BTAQ4ObnNb7WyoP1gh-\/s72-c\/MBAJuly62023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3016262294912918943"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-05T20:58:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-05T20:58:00.146-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, Job Openings and More"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhRcdFSZv8bTsrpJrFbR4zPDX6I7Jpnzb0olfvI1AOpI6NEweVlklVpUG72Ga5ctzHD7DuaiOSK2t5sloBqd_Kdcc5x2n3gFLSDNkOfWsfWcV9n8aW9UtCD2XIBe_tdMo5kSgLck5DXnQg97uPHKhHMNdJQQQ6oPgnU0qog9kpi1WAQvLjSGO2Y\/s393\/RatesJuly52023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhRcdFSZv8bTsrpJrFbR4zPDX6I7Jpnzb0olfvI1AOpI6NEweVlklVpUG72Ga5ctzHD7DuaiOSK2t5sloBqd_Kdcc5x2n3gFLSDNkOfWsfWcV9n8aW9UtCD2XIBe_tdMo5kSgLck5DXnQg97uPHKhHMNdJQQQ6oPgnU0qog9kpi1WAQvLjSGO2Y\/s320\/RatesJuly52023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:15 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EADP Employment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 236,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from 278,000 in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n• At 8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 245 thousand initial claims, up from 239 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also, at 8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ETrade Balance report\u003C\/b\u003E for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit will be $69.8 billion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\u003C\/b\u003E for May from the BLS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also, at 10:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for a reading of 50.5, up from 50.3."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3016262294912918943\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3016262294912918943","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3016262294912918943"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3016262294912918943"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/thursday-unemployment-claims-adp.html","title":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, Job Openings and More"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhRcdFSZv8bTsrpJrFbR4zPDX6I7Jpnzb0olfvI1AOpI6NEweVlklVpUG72Ga5ctzHD7DuaiOSK2t5sloBqd_Kdcc5x2n3gFLSDNkOfWsfWcV9n8aW9UtCD2XIBe_tdMo5kSgLck5DXnQg97uPHKhHMNdJQQQ6oPgnU0qog9kpi1WAQvLjSGO2Y\/s72-c\/RatesJuly52023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6088590652174800412"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-05T17:01:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-05T17:01:55.204-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Vehicles Sales at 15.68 million SAAR in June; Up 20% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for June: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/wardsintelligence.informa.com\/WI967267\/US-LightVehicle-Sales-End-FirstHalf-2023-on-Solid-Note-as-June-Q2-Record-DoubleDigit-Growth\"\u003EU.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End First-Half 2023 on Solid Note as June, Q2 Record Double-Digit Growth\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;(pay site).\u003Cblockquote\u003EWith second-quarter results finishing 18% above the same period last year, first-half 2023 volume totaled 7.66 million units, a 13% increase on January-June 2022. Sales are forecast to rise 11% year-over-year to 7.72 million units in the second half, and Wards Intelligence partner GlobalData is pegging entire-2023 at 15.4 million units.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EWards Auto estimates sales of 15.68 million SAAR in June 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 4.2% from the May sales rate, and up 20.2% from May 2022.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiYQI7CubiXs8Edu522m6wgbk88TZ6_b1PiLVdK_b_F0AyYsCgLNPNd03DvJYG-oMIekC0uFPmefBexEVttXMnxjISQPs-MbkxyjUMt9-fLLr2JnEzathQ5obZWoqfC7C7FBwoUAN1YHxJEq3FJ5jcVQ3b1MjO7sMOOjG171GvTfigES4D18wO9\/s968\/VSShortJune2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiYQI7CubiXs8Edu522m6wgbk88TZ6_b1PiLVdK_b_F0AyYsCgLNPNd03DvJYG-oMIekC0uFPmefBexEVttXMnxjISQPs-MbkxyjUMt9-fLLr2JnEzathQ5obZWoqfC7C7FBwoUAN1YHxJEq3FJ5jcVQ3b1MjO7sMOOjG171GvTfigES4D18wO9\/s320\/VSShortJune2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for June (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).\u0026nbsp; However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues.\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E The \"supply chain bottom\" was in September 2021.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgaM-Gtmj5Qha7TuK7VZG1Tc3rbCZBdo8Uw6BxMcVGh2n8udbcWXYBNPOUJeJO7m5GztVOc_FPwRrBUGTBj_PM75NDYMR6g7j4E7ktYW7l-pWeJlGaczNie8ailMbPjiIqh_U21WXnD1WTiqUbmybZiaKXUBBUNRuU9Cig9fqTrUlPLjSSkJRaI\/s1052\/VSJune2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgaM-Gtmj5Qha7TuK7VZG1Tc3rbCZBdo8Uw6BxMcVGh2n8udbcWXYBNPOUJeJO7m5GztVOc_FPwRrBUGTBj_PM75NDYMR6g7j4E7ktYW7l-pWeJlGaczNie8ailMbPjiIqh_U21WXnD1WTiqUbmybZiaKXUBBUNRuU9Cig9fqTrUlPLjSSkJRaI\/s320\/VSJune2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. \u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EVehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.\u0026nbsp; This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003ESales in June were above the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6088590652174800412\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6088590652174800412","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6088590652174800412"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6088590652174800412"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/vehicles-sales-at-1568-million-saar-in.html","title":"Vehicles Sales at 15.68 million SAAR in June; Up 20% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiYQI7CubiXs8Edu522m6wgbk88TZ6_b1PiLVdK_b_F0AyYsCgLNPNd03DvJYG-oMIekC0uFPmefBexEVttXMnxjISQPs-MbkxyjUMt9-fLLr2JnEzathQ5obZWoqfC7C7FBwoUAN1YHxJEq3FJ5jcVQ3b1MjO7sMOOjG171GvTfigES4D18wO9\/s72-c\/VSShortJune2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2017202279179170109"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-05T14:00:00.021-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-05T14:07:26.875-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"FOMC Minutes: Staff Predicts Mild Recession; Additional Increases in Fed Funds Rate \"Appropriate\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcminutes20230614.htm\"\u003EMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 13-14, 2023\u003C\/a\u003E.  Excerpt:\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to \u003Cb\u003Ea mild recession starting later this year\u003C\/b\u003E, followed by a moderately paced recovery. Real GDP was projected to decelerate in the current quarter and the next one before declining modestly in both the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of next year. Real GDP growth over 2024 and 2025 was projected to be below the staff's estimate of potential output growth. The unemployment rate was forecast to increase this year, peak next year, and remain near that level through 2025. Current tight resource utilization in both product and labor markets was forecast to ease, with the level of real output moving below the staff's estimate of potential output in 2025 and the unemployment rate rising above the staff's estimate of its natural rate at that time.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe staff's inflation forecast was little revised relative to the previous projection, and supply–demand imbalances in both goods markets and labor markets were still judged to be easing only slowly. On a four-quarter change basis, total PCE price inflation was projected to be 3.0 percent this year, with core inflation at 3.7 percent. Core goods inflation was forecast to move down further this year and then remain subdued. Housing services inflation was considered to have about peaked and was expected to move down over the rest of the year. Core nonhousing services inflation was projected to slow gradually as nominal wage growth eased further. Reflecting the effects of the easing in resource utilization over the projection, core inflation was forecast to slow through next year but remain moderately above 2 percent. With expected declines in consumer energy prices and further moderation in food price inflation, total inflation was projected to run below core inflation this year and the next. In 2025, both total and core PCE price inflation were expected to be close to 2 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe staff continued to judge that uncertainty around the baseline projection was considerable and still viewed the risks as being influenced importantly by the potential macroeconomic implications of banking-sector developments, which could end up being more, or less, negative than assumed in the baseline. \u003Cb\u003EGiven the continued strength in labor market conditions and the resilience of consumer spending, however, the staff saw the possibility of the economy continuing to grow slowly and avoiding a downturn as almost as likely as the mild‑recession baseline\u003C\/b\u003E. On balance, the staff saw the risks around the baseline inflation forecast as tilted to the upside, as economic scenarios with higher inflation appeared more likely than scenarios with lower inflation and because inflation could continue to be more persistent than expected and inflation expectations could become unanchored after a long period of elevated inflation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn discussing the policy outlook, all participants continued to anticipate that, with inflation still well above the Committee's 2 percent goal and the labor market remaining very tight, maintaining a restrictive stance for monetary policy would be appropriate to achieve the Committee's objectives. \u003Cb\u003EAlmost all participants noted that in their economic projections that they judged that additional increases in the target federal funds rate during 2023 would be appropriate\u003C\/b\u003E. Most participants observed that uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and inflation remained elevated and that additional information would be valuable for considering the appropriate stance of monetary policy. Many also noted that, after rapidly tightening the stance of monetary policy last year, the Committee had slowed the pace of tightening and that a further moderation in the pace of policy firming was appropriate in order to provide additional time to observe the effects of cumulative tightening and assess their implications for policy. Participants agreed that their policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook as well as the balance of risks. They also emphasized the importance of communicating to the public their data-dependent approach. Most participants observed that postmeeting communications, including the SEP, would help clarify their assessment regarding the stance of monetary policy that is likely to be appropriate to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nParticipants also discussed several risk-management considerations that could bear on future policy decisions. Almost all participants stated that, with inflation still well above the Committee's longer-run goal and the labor market remaining tight, upside risks to the inflation outlook or the possibility that persistently high inflation might cause inflation expectations to become unanchored remained key factors shaping the policy outlook. Even though economic activity had been resilient recently and that the labor market remained strong, some participants commented that there continued to be downside risks to economic growth and upside risks to unemployment. Despite the receding of the stresses in the banking sector, some participants commented that it would be important to monitor whether developments in the banking sector lead to further tightening of credit conditions and weigh on economic activity. Some participants noted concerns about the potential risks stemming from weakness in commercial real estate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2017202279179170109\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2017202279179170109","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2017202279179170109"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2017202279179170109"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/fomc-minutes-staff-predicts-mild.html","title":"FOMC Minutes: Staff Predicts Mild Recession; Additional Increases in Fed Funds Rate \"Appropriate\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7757702703474599375"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-05T08:34:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-05T08:34:36.658-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Asking Rent Growth Flat Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/asking-rent-growth-flat-year-over\"\u003EAsking Rent Growth Flat Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ETracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/household-formation-drives-housing\"\u003EHousehold Formation Drives Housing Demand\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe surge in household formation has been confirmed (mostly due to work-from-home), and this also led to the supposition that household formation would slow sharply in 2023 (mostly confirmed) and that asking rents might decrease in 2023 on a year-over-year basis (now flat year-over-year).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHere is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through May 2023, except CoreLogic is through April and Apartment List is through June 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNzZsXGMp2xL4eSnhk7fHhzTQB3kr_qgyZCbDF2YeYT3CGpVyxkI9hXD6efHLX-uWZUWsnO7XTGLjPuUKO3Lrgi8dskhkUBFOE_LYqoWTH56gMkTBYxDA6boBwbBoPZ2wApJTLHnuyLPQBs4uDXdk9LTIE6FxQh2btgePKamyff0OLJuD4HrmT\/s1163\/RentYoYJune2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNzZsXGMp2xL4eSnhk7fHhzTQB3kr_qgyZCbDF2YeYT3CGpVyxkI9hXD6efHLX-uWZUWsnO7XTGLjPuUKO3Lrgi8dskhkUBFOE_LYqoWTH56gMkTBYxDA6boBwbBoPZ2wApJTLHnuyLPQBs4uDXdk9LTIE6FxQh2btgePKamyff0OLJuD4HrmT\/s320\/RentYoYJune2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe CoreLogic measure is up 3.7% YoY in April, down from 4.3% in March, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Zillow measure is up 4.8% YoY in May, down from 5.3% YoY in April, and down from a peak of 17.0% YoY in February 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe ApartmentList measure is flat at 0.0% YoY as of June, down from 1.0% YoY in May, and down from a peak of 18.2% YoY November 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith slow household formation, more supply comes on the market and a rising vacancy rate, rents will be under pressure all year. Although asking rents increased in June according to ApartmentList, “rent growth is gradually declining at a time of the year when it’s normally picking up steam”.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSince rents increased sharply last year in July, asking rents will likely be down YoY in the next ApartmentList report. \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7757702703474599375\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7757702703474599375","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7757702703474599375"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7757702703474599375"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/asking-rent-growth-flat-year-over-year.html","title":"Asking Rent Growth Flat Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNzZsXGMp2xL4eSnhk7fHhzTQB3kr_qgyZCbDF2YeYT3CGpVyxkI9hXD6efHLX-uWZUWsnO7XTGLjPuUKO3Lrgi8dskhkUBFOE_LYqoWTH56gMkTBYxDA6boBwbBoPZ2wApJTLHnuyLPQBs4uDXdk9LTIE6FxQh2btgePKamyff0OLJuD4HrmT\/s72-c\/RentYoYJune2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1706487089001458732"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-04T21:46:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-04T21:46:56.172-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: FOMC Minutes"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"NOTE: The MBA Mortgage Applications Index will be released on Thursday this week due to the holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhOHGXawLH3H08U7OcMzT7fSnAUZvgLC-ONv9vs1D7EqXohDK3kiTP5hoOP0jOpdblSCkleKaEaFm47v3oaB8qOLci817E5QejkUHzi6GneDYvTcw_Hbja4MUHnoXJ4YtEBrE8Q7jXONDKnIbiPG1F2k6wi5zXHPbOQ1LCSu1ZT5y6jkZ5WzY17\/s398\/RatesJuly32023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhOHGXawLH3H08U7OcMzT7fSnAUZvgLC-ONv9vs1D7EqXohDK3kiTP5hoOP0jOpdblSCkleKaEaFm47v3oaB8qOLci817E5QejkUHzi6GneDYvTcw_Hbja4MUHnoXJ4YtEBrE8Q7jXONDKnIbiPG1F2k6wi5zXHPbOQ1LCSu1ZT5y6jkZ5WzY17\/s320\/RatesJuly32023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 2:00 PM ET, \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Minutes\u003C\/b\u003E, Meeting of June 13-14, 2023"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1706487089001458732\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1706487089001458732","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1706487089001458732"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1706487089001458732"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/wednesday-fomc-minutes.html","title":"Wednesday: FOMC Minutes"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhOHGXawLH3H08U7OcMzT7fSnAUZvgLC-ONv9vs1D7EqXohDK3kiTP5hoOP0jOpdblSCkleKaEaFm47v3oaB8qOLci817E5QejkUHzi6GneDYvTcw_Hbja4MUHnoXJ4YtEBrE8Q7jXONDKnIbiPG1F2k6wi5zXHPbOQ1LCSu1ZT5y6jkZ5WzY17\/s72-c\/RatesJuly32023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7752849953925870785"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-03T14:10:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-03T14:10:40.631-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Inventory and Demographics: The Next Big Shift"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-inventory-and-demographics\"\u003EHousing Inventory and Demographics: The Next Big Shift\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EIn 2021 I wrote \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-and-demographics-the-next\"\u003EHousing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift\u003C\/a\u003E.   In that article I reviewed how demographics had helped me call the apartment boom in the early 2010s, and the home buying boom in 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI also noted: \u003Cblockquote\u003ENo cohort is monolithic - some people will age-in-place until they pass away, others will move in with family (or family will move in with their parents), and some will move to retirement communities.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThere is no magic age that people reach and start to transition, but looking at prior generations, it seems to start when people are around 80 years old.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TjLPYNqPDOg\/YMDNLIXPNzI\/AAAAAAAA51o\/9ooaJsircBsESVNv4ddmmmwuv3yuOIDuwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1066\/DemographicsOlder2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Population 60+ years old\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TjLPYNqPDOg\/YMDNLIXPNzI\/AAAAAAAA51o\/9ooaJsircBsESVNv4ddmmmwuv3yuOIDuwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/DemographicsOlder2021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThis graph shows the longer term trend for two key age groups: 60 to 79, and 80+.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph is from 2010 to 2060 (all data from Census: current to 2060 is projected). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe leading edge of the Baby Boom generation is currently 75 (born in 1946), and these people will be turning 80 in 2026.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe peak of the boomers will be turning 80 in 2035 or so, and the tail end turning 80 in 2044 (born in 1964).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMy sense is there will be a pickup in Boomers selling their homes in the 2nd half of the 2020s and lasting until 2040 or so. These homes will be older - and most will need updating - but many of these homes will be in prime locations.\u003C\/blockquote\u003ENow the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation is 77.   My view is we will see a pickup in downsizing later this decade, but mostly this will be a 2030s story.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7752849953925870785\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7752849953925870785","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7752849953925870785"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7752849953925870785"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/housing-inventory-and-demographics-next.html","title":"Housing Inventory and Demographics: The Next Big Shift"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TjLPYNqPDOg\/YMDNLIXPNzI\/AAAAAAAA51o\/9ooaJsircBsESVNv4ddmmmwuv3yuOIDuwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/DemographicsOlder2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2456793954093059849"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-03T10:17:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-03T10:17:57.671-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Construction Spending Increased 0.9% in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/c30\/current\/index.html\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that overall construction spending increased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nConstruction spending during May 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,925.6 billion, 0.9 percent above the revised April estimate of $1,909.0 billion. The May figure is 2.4 percent above the May 2022 estimate of $1,880.9 billion. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nBoth private and public spending increased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nSpending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,513.2 billion, 1.1 percent above the revised April estimate of $1,497.2 billion.  ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn May, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $412.4 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised April estimate of $411.8 billion.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiLrnUKmyi113ZFYEDtFKu7rZ-55oainHP3bFIyp3idTl_vYNYWQEoKGXCZUhQvVrxzo63LBLs-6JIT4kdurN_KML4LUiHKQPt0_7VbgXxdBdHgqvTjdkB9RdZSjz-DNGQVQGxthFblQxKsvzcd_f6zA7eVUZa-KiPQK_-NuV8PX3mqZKUk52eb\/s1019\/ConSpendMay2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiLrnUKmyi113ZFYEDtFKu7rZ-55oainHP3bFIyp3idTl_vYNYWQEoKGXCZUhQvVrxzo63LBLs-6JIT4kdurN_KML4LUiHKQPt0_7VbgXxdBdHgqvTjdkB9RdZSjz-DNGQVQGxthFblQxKsvzcd_f6zA7eVUZa-KiPQK_-NuV8PX3mqZKUk52eb\/s320\/ConSpendMay2023.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nResidential (red) spending is 11.6% below the recent peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNon-residential (blue) spending is close to the peak in April 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nPublic construction spending is at a new peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhfw5cGKTPZ2V-gpt4pQ3eVFAsU8QHzye8NMmPoC_6Nv0AVmUKxtIJEdCc2PQ5UQ0JzXk4mcZcmDzqK2gmUwclRAIwUDi7ODwU5dMxAx2b3ro8ETNkVbooEEYZC_VndQxhuh8ldo3txY192GrBQYKQ5VxGC-FboUnYY4p27USHsZVX5lqGt4Gv6\/s1054\/ConSpendYoYMay2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhfw5cGKTPZ2V-gpt4pQ3eVFAsU8QHzye8NMmPoC_6Nv0AVmUKxtIJEdCc2PQ5UQ0JzXk4mcZcmDzqK2gmUwclRAIwUDi7ODwU5dMxAx2b3ro8ETNkVbooEEYZC_VndQxhuh8ldo3txY192GrBQYKQ5VxGC-FboUnYY4p27USHsZVX5lqGt4Gv6\/s320\/ConSpendYoYMay2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOn a year-over-year basis, \u003Cb\u003Eprivate residential construction spending is down 11.6%\u003C\/b\u003E.  Non-residential spending is up 20.5% year-over-year.  Public spending is up 12.3% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was above consensus expectations of a 0.5% increase in spending and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up, combined.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2456793954093059849\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2456793954093059849","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2456793954093059849"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2456793954093059849"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/construction-spending-increased-09-in.html","title":"Construction Spending Increased 0.9% in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiLrnUKmyi113ZFYEDtFKu7rZ-55oainHP3bFIyp3idTl_vYNYWQEoKGXCZUhQvVrxzo63LBLs-6JIT4kdurN_KML4LUiHKQPt0_7VbgXxdBdHgqvTjdkB9RdZSjz-DNGQVQGxthFblQxKsvzcd_f6zA7eVUZa-KiPQK_-NuV8PX3mqZKUk52eb\/s72-c\/ConSpendMay2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8421172922025782695"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-03T10:04:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-03T10:04:06.836-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 46.0% in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"(Posted with permission).  The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction.  The PMI® was at 46.0% in June, down from 46.9% in May.  The employment index was at 48.1%, down from 51.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 45.6%, up from 42.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom ISM: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/pmi\/june\/\"\u003EManufacturing PMI® at 46%\nJune 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EEconomic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the eighth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“\u003Cb\u003EThe June Manufacturing PMI® registered 46 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, 0.9 percentage point lower than the 46.9 percent recorded in May. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a seventh month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. \u003Cb\u003EThe New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 45.6 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, 3 percentage points higher than the figure of 42.6 percent recorded in May. The Production Index reading of 46.7 percent is a 4.4-percentage point decrease compared to May’s figure of 51.1 percent. \u003Cb\u003EThe Prices Index registered 41.8 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, down 2.4 percentage points compared to the May figure of 44.2 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 38.7 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the May reading of 37.5 percent. \u003Cb\u003EThe Employment Index dropped into contraction, registering 48.1 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, down 3.3 percentage points from May’s reading of 51.4 percent.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003E\nemphasis added\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis suggests manufacturing contracted in June.\u0026nbsp; This was below the consensus forecast.\u0026nbsp;"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8421172922025782695\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8421172922025782695","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8421172922025782695"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8421172922025782695"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/ism-manufacturing-index-decreased-to.html","title":"ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 46.0% in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-963870675317251595"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-03T08:21:00.033-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-03T08:21:00.144-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing July 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 1.3% Week-over-week; Down Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgKJPR1RKsxdh9-bebaL_XbIHLKRpEogWLH88KwKubmgRYVH-kbQYM_-szGMpVdeNQHFyU-xbbgETGk0nkVe0DMjwM-oyA3KxUv3XcB62eEqwWyY0EgIVszFJie6_wgh0fg57t6nFivXd2Wsrs5H0soHCre0FHvkx0I6usIhw6lwFdW9wtaropK\/s1183\/AltosJuly32023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgKJPR1RKsxdh9-bebaL_XbIHLKRpEogWLH88KwKubmgRYVH-kbQYM_-szGMpVdeNQHFyU-xbbgETGk0nkVe0DMjwM-oyA3KxUv3XcB62eEqwWyY0EgIVszFJie6_wgh0fg57t6nFivXd2Wsrs5H0soHCre0FHvkx0I6usIhw6lwFdW9wtaropK\/s320\/AltosJuly32023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nAs of June 30th, inventory was at 466 thousand (7-day average), compared to 460 thousand the prior week.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EYear-to-date, inventory is down 5.1%.\u0026nbsp; And inventory is up 14.9% from the seasonal bottom eleven weeks ago.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjHGOaipjC-l8iHuHOZE2JeXnMccHOHFICgROq7lHibVFvNa6s5IDs1-K3LiVhpYT1YQ5Si9BQb6p0Hi3aCY9kK3_fRiuCUsOJr5by7GtRTGx6hpl_kfDiGaS8JObXEUC4Wmd3wDIhIvcylIirVERXJdxxJYjaFVuZTeL0Q5X7upDw-7mXX0LQ7\/s1088\/AltosYoYJuly32023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjHGOaipjC-l8iHuHOZE2JeXnMccHOHFICgROq7lHibVFvNa6s5IDs1-K3LiVhpYT1YQ5Si9BQb6p0Hi3aCY9kK3_fRiuCUsOJr5by7GtRTGx6hpl_kfDiGaS8JObXEUC4Wmd3wDIhIvcylIirVERXJdxxJYjaFVuZTeL0Q5X7upDw-7mXX0LQ7\/s320\/AltosYoYJuly32023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe red line is for 2023.\u0026nbsp; The black line is for 2019.\u0026nbsp; Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory was down 1.3% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 4.3%), and down 51.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 51.8%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIt appears likely same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year, but above 2021 levels - and possibly above 2020 levels late in the year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/963870675317251595\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=963870675317251595","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/963870675317251595"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/963870675317251595"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/housing-july-3rd-weekly-update.html","title":"Housing July 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 1.3% Week-over-week; Down Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgKJPR1RKsxdh9-bebaL_XbIHLKRpEogWLH88KwKubmgRYVH-kbQYM_-szGMpVdeNQHFyU-xbbgETGk0nkVe0DMjwM-oyA3KxUv3XcB62eEqwWyY0EgIVszFJie6_wgh0fg57t6nFivXd2Wsrs5H0soHCre0FHvkx0I6usIhw6lwFdW9wtaropK\/s72-c\/AltosJuly32023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4189096921092959256"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-02T19:48:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-02T19:48:36.640-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/schedule-for-week-of-july-2-2023.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of July 2, 2023\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 47.2, up from 46.9 in May.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also, at 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for May. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Late in the day, \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for June. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.3 million SAAR in June, up from 15.1 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Wards Auto is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/06\/june-vehicle-sales-forecast-159-million.html\"\u003Eforecasting sales\u003C\/a\u003E of 15.9 million SAAR in June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EUS markets will close at 1:00 PM ET\u003C\/b\u003E prior to the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003EIndependence Day\u003C\/b\u003E Holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 and DOW futures are unchanged (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOil prices were up over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $70.64 per barrel and Brent at $75.41 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $110, and Brent was at $119 - so WTI oil prices are down about 36% year-over-year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $3.50 per gallon.  A year ago, prices were at $4.81 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $1.31 per gallon year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4189096921092959256\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4189096921092959256","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4189096921092959256"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4189096921092959256"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/sunday-night-futures.html","title":"Sunday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8759141307098784712"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-02T08:21:00.006-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-02T08:21:00.152-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Update: Lumber Prices Down About 35% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is another monthly update on lumber prices.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ESPECIAL NOTE:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/content\/dam\/cmegroup\/notices\/ser\/2023\/04\/SER-9183.pdf\"\u003ECME group discontinued\u003C\/a\u003E the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16th.  I've now switched to a new physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows CME random length framing futures through May 16th (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELBR is currently at $528.50 per 1000 board feet.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhqN6IpgtZUBBTOvte0xZZYDO4keWNRnhRrkdTHLo5bOkw0xl013dhvarYSpVgTibbOgI4-XzqpNPR74-B4_87EOJQehgGdrDw1Tv7pw0tIlI2dN6CGjnoe-VaGSyn0t39dkUBEtp3kBWN5XZwH9GNHa8lbWoXcQPTPOVrSNVFj32vFDlBezMoR\/s995\/LumberJune302023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Lumber Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhqN6IpgtZUBBTOvte0xZZYDO4keWNRnhRrkdTHLo5bOkw0xl013dhvarYSpVgTibbOgI4-XzqpNPR74-B4_87EOJQehgGdrDw1Tv7pw0tIlI2dN6CGjnoe-VaGSyn0t39dkUBEtp3kBWN5XZwH9GNHa8lbWoXcQPTPOVrSNVFj32vFDlBezMoR\/s320\/LumberJune302023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe year-over-year change is estimated using the previous series.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWe didn't see a significant runup in prices this Spring due to the housing slowdown.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8759141307098784712\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8759141307098784712","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8759141307098784712"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8759141307098784712"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/update-lumber-prices-down-about-35-yoy.html","title":"Update: Lumber Prices Down About 35% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhqN6IpgtZUBBTOvte0xZZYDO4keWNRnhRrkdTHLo5bOkw0xl013dhvarYSpVgTibbOgI4-XzqpNPR74-B4_87EOJQehgGdrDw1Tv7pw0tIlI2dN6CGjnoe-VaGSyn0t39dkUBEtp3kBWN5XZwH9GNHa8lbWoXcQPTPOVrSNVFj32vFDlBezMoR\/s72-c\/LumberJune302023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7340999257441652775"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-01T14:11:00.015-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-01T14:11:00.142-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/new-home-sales-increase-to-763000\"\u003ENew Home Sales increase to 763,000 Annual Rate in May\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-b07\"\u003ECase-Shiller: National House Price Index Decreased 0.2% year-over-year in April\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-38-404\"\u003EInflation Adjusted House Prices 3.8% Below Peak\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/fannie-and-freddie-serious-delinquencies-605\"\u003EFannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in May: Single Family Declined, Multi-Family Increased\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-26d\"\u003EFreddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in May; Up 0.4% Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMost content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7340999257441652775\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7340999257441652775","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7340999257441652775"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7340999257441652775"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales Increase in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3114603457627540544"},"published":{"$t":"2023-07-01T08:11:00.095-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-07-01T08:11:00.139-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of July 2, 2023"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report to be released on Friday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOther key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales, May Job Openings and the Trade Deficit for May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, July 3rd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 47.2, up from 46.9 in May.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for May. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEis3mkYsF1a6Qsnuagz2u2KmA5--Gc50Dds6bq8ocXmhtlKu3qiu-DfGBdb1-u5ZuZJdOO82tWSWhzAxI-84q9-kiocLYK3TMwkUuKcP4FHTSYYJwgBTmgf7uhIC7-wf-T2KrfRRJU4ocnQc1HgLRT8FldN02ZTstfM0154ylDyqi9oEvRbUg\/s1052\/VSMay2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEis3mkYsF1a6Qsnuagz2u2KmA5--Gc50Dds6bq8ocXmhtlKu3qiu-DfGBdb1-u5ZuZJdOO82tWSWhzAxI-84q9-kiocLYK3TMwkUuKcP4FHTSYYJwgBTmgf7uhIC7-wf-T2KrfRRJU4ocnQc1HgLRT8FldN02ZTstfM0154ylDyqi9oEvRbUg\/s320\/VSMay2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ELate in the day: \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.3 million SAAR in June, up from 15.1 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWards Auto is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/06\/june-vehicle-sales-forecast-159-million.html\"\u003Eforecasting sales\u003C\/a\u003E of 15.9 million SAAR in June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nUS markets will close at 1:00 PM ET prior to the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003EIndependence Day\u003C\/b\u003E Holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, July 4th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAll \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nyse.com\/markets\/hours-calendars#holidays\"\u003EUS markets\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaqtrader.com\/Trader.aspx?id=Calendar\"\u003Ewill be closed\u003C\/a\u003E in observance of \u003Cb\u003EIndependence Day\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, July 5th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003ECorelogic House Price index\u003C\/b\u003E for May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Minutes\u003C\/b\u003E, Meeting of June 13-14, 2023\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, July 6th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:15 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EADP Employment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 236,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from 278,000 in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 245 thousand initial claims, up from 239 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjxs5EJiTF9jmrv5wMD32BNnyyNYbP2tSV63ZSRBEJhi7gdw9M6r2n0OPInwjb_PslPaUaEz5vQy7lyXZ8eJrC-5xfPpKfiao7B30CTFYJ478S6Gv83zdKOvEzD5d31QREwpR6yAFEToWAQPYVLhfp-4YW_6KkjL6XhHbA63z7AOxKr6-IhiA\/s1018\/TradeDeficitApr2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Deficit\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjxs5EJiTF9jmrv5wMD32BNnyyNYbP2tSV63ZSRBEJhi7gdw9M6r2n0OPInwjb_PslPaUaEz5vQy7lyXZ8eJrC-5xfPpKfiao7B30CTFYJ478S6Gv83zdKOvEzD5d31QREwpR6yAFEToWAQPYVLhfp-4YW_6KkjL6XhHbA63z7AOxKr6-IhiA\/s320\/TradeDeficitApr2023.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ETrade Balance report\u003C\/b\u003E for May from the Census Bureau. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report.  The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is the trade deficit to be $69.8 billion.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. trade deficit was at $74.6 billion the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5WwVZHGODWtlB3wclJmjl1KCq-GeEmb6YeHnJtkikt2Cz5yspe4jigQ_vtWCoLIOferUvYMpczV-OfgNm1qyNWxE755C5qn06mC7Hcl4rlaM1F1lY1sf6-w0jAFIBgjxjl_Sz5nuxyIXgQ7Eauq5PTrz9S4njq0h1tipxid_WZi59kJ2LQA\/s1125\/JOLTSApr2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5WwVZHGODWtlB3wclJmjl1KCq-GeEmb6YeHnJtkikt2Cz5yspe4jigQ_vtWCoLIOferUvYMpczV-OfgNm1qyNWxE755C5qn06mC7Hcl4rlaM1F1lY1sf6-w0jAFIBgjxjl_Sz5nuxyIXgQ7Eauq5PTrz9S4njq0h1tipxid_WZi59kJ2LQA\/s320\/JOLTSApr2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\u003C\/b\u003E for May from the BLS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nJobs openings increased in April to 10.1 million from 9.7 million in March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe number of job openings (yellow) were down 14% year-over-year and quits were down 16% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for a reading of 50.5, up from 50.3.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, July 7th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhHrX16hEmx02CwFx-4BVKsoulw2s9Hn2pTnHyaBkqDEiEPgnFDGxrV6vbce9ILuu12cSCPsYUg_G9oQnkYdQBco4IEf-0ixsmnF3DDz-ieZFjfo0GRg62ceGijbDQtSe7CNohZpO2hF7cbZZ24NGx0uqKpZwW064pVldHDsanhKCaNgtuH_w\/s923\/JobsMay2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment per month\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhHrX16hEmx02CwFx-4BVKsoulw2s9Hn2pTnHyaBkqDEiEPgnFDGxrV6vbce9ILuu12cSCPsYUg_G9oQnkYdQBco4IEf-0ixsmnF3DDz-ieZFjfo0GRg62ceGijbDQtSe7CNohZpO2hF7cbZZ24NGx0uqKpZwW064pVldHDsanhKCaNgtuH_w\/s320\/JobsMay2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for June. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThere were 339,000 jobs added in May, and the unemployment rate was at 3.7%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3114603457627540544\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3114603457627540544","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3114603457627540544"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3114603457627540544"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/07\/schedule-for-week-of-july-2-2023.html","title":"Schedule for Week of July 2, 2023"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEis3mkYsF1a6Qsnuagz2u2KmA5--Gc50Dds6bq8ocXmhtlKu3qiu-DfGBdb1-u5ZuZJdOO82tWSWhzAxI-84q9-kiocLYK3TMwkUuKcP4FHTSYYJwgBTmgf7uhIC7-wf-T2KrfRRJU4ocnQc1HgLRT8FldN02ZTstfM0154ylDyqi9oEvRbUg\/s72-c\/VSMay2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4053268824637669192"},"published":{"$t":"2023-06-30T19:11:00.015-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-06-30T19:11:00.140-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"June 30th COVID Update: New Pandemic Lows for Deaths and Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiV_nypsyY_ofHGVVanwU9zNpmh5QXgfySIrZ6Jzi5eJ52kG99Gv-vR8bkdqPWI4uRTOa2EQiQ-FuzcDLjj8rXlVIc1swzPtVtP0MOQIVZ6aRgNvpvW695nVFsfGnyhaRzYMbHBo0CCXcr1Ktfwk3w3zw5q82Ng9fq-71cOVHPr2SRm8mAaUk0d\/s395\/RatesJune302023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiV_nypsyY_ofHGVVanwU9zNpmh5QXgfySIrZ6Jzi5eJ52kG99Gv-vR8bkdqPWI4uRTOa2EQiQ-FuzcDLjj8rXlVIc1swzPtVtP0MOQIVZ6aRgNvpvW695nVFsfGnyhaRzYMbHBo0CCXcr1Ktfwk3w3zw5q82Ng9fq-71cOVHPr2SRm8mAaUk0d\/s320\/RatesJune302023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDue to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAfter the first few weeks, the pandemic low for weekly deaths had been the week of July 7, 2021, at 1,690 deaths (until recently).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor COVID hospitalizations, the previous low was 9,821 (until recently).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5,758\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6,233\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E522\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E624\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003EWeekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgUhxYKbRXopbaWX087By6-bcLFGijiLh22Df-lfCDDvYB814TNkLbcLcYdVunLRAILfZQu6-ziaUeixhULGHRRyxB3bTXRXiP0xQsB1mQtQGbBhy0qpCb8U6qH9jUTVYBQ1fL_BMe4QO10UGJx-Y3TnMqUmPrzJQchBQX7I8olJAFu8jl70UNg\/s1186\/COVIDDeathsJune302023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgUhxYKbRXopbaWX087By6-bcLFGijiLh22Df-lfCDDvYB814TNkLbcLcYdVunLRAILfZQu6-ziaUeixhULGHRRyxB3bTXRXiP0xQsB1mQtQGbBhy0qpCb8U6qH9jUTVYBQ1fL_BMe4QO10UGJx-Y3TnMqUmPrzJQchBQX7I8olJAFu8jl70UNg\/s320\/COVIDDeathsJune302023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4053268824637669192\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4053268824637669192","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4053268824637669192"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4053268824637669192"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/06\/june-30th-covid-update-new-pandemic.html","title":"June 30th COVID Update: New Pandemic Lows for Deaths and Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiV_nypsyY_ofHGVVanwU9zNpmh5QXgfySIrZ6Jzi5eJ52kG99Gv-vR8bkdqPWI4uRTOa2EQiQ-FuzcDLjj8rXlVIc1swzPtVtP0MOQIVZ6aRgNvpvW695nVFsfGnyhaRzYMbHBo0CCXcr1Ktfwk3w3zw5q82Ng9fq-71cOVHPr2SRm8mAaUk0d\/s72-c\/RatesJune302023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9153571367980708886"},"published":{"$t":"2023-06-30T12:52:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-06-30T12:52:02.430-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in May; Up 0.4% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-26d\"\u003EFreddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in May; Up 0.4% Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 0.4% in May, from up 0.7% YoY in April.\u0026nbsp; The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgajCaO_-H7VctwzzuQA00oUyHZ11TjJp4qnkq-dm0abb5DnDJZNdW1BFuGfangSqNJYbROvUpM0hzsLL2QTD-LUmppNzDVejpLt_fbAlTJ5rSrYTfKIRWLvM3-U_okfdALsV8BCWjTwfRMgEzucKa1ppSaD8zLHp0kU_2SzQX2nV6x-y0r11U2\/s791\/FreddieCBSAMay2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"30 year Mortgage 10 year Treasury\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgajCaO_-H7VctwzzuQA00oUyHZ11TjJp4qnkq-dm0abb5DnDJZNdW1BFuGfangSqNJYbROvUpM0hzsLL2QTD-LUmppNzDVejpLt_fbAlTJ5rSrYTfKIRWLvM3-U_okfdALsV8BCWjTwfRMgEzucKa1ppSaD8zLHp0kU_2SzQX2nV6x-y0r11U2\/s320\/FreddieCBSAMay2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIn May, 15 states and D.C. were below their 2022 peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in D.C. (-9.1%), Idaho (-7.2%), Nevada (-7.1%), Hawaii (-5.5%), Arizona (-5.2%), Utah (-4.9%), Washington (-4.3%), California (-3.7%), Oregon (-3.6%) and Wyoming (-5.0%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe FMHPI is suggesting the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will be close to unchanged for the next couple of months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe big question is “\u003Cb\u003EWill house prices decline further later this year?\u003C\/b\u003E”  And I’ll post some thoughts on this next week.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9153571367980708886\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9153571367980708886","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9153571367980708886"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9153571367980708886"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/06\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased.html","title":"Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in May; Up 0.4% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgajCaO_-H7VctwzzuQA00oUyHZ11TjJp4qnkq-dm0abb5DnDJZNdW1BFuGfangSqNJYbROvUpM0hzsLL2QTD-LUmppNzDVejpLt_fbAlTJ5rSrYTfKIRWLvM3-U_okfdALsV8BCWjTwfRMgEzucKa1ppSaD8zLHp0kU_2SzQX2nV6x-y0r11U2\/s72-c\/FreddieCBSAMay2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5556929601219862392"},"published":{"$t":"2023-06-30T12:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-06-30T12:00:05.745-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003EPersonal spending came in slight below expectations and with a downward revision \nin April. Overall, this decreased our personal consumption expenditure tracking estimate \nfor 2Q. After rounding, it left our \u003Cb\u003E2Q US GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 1.5%\u003C\/b\u003E. [June 30th estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003E[W]e left our \u003Cb\u003EQ2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.2% (qoq ar)\u003C\/b\u003E. [June 30th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the \u003Cb\u003Esecond quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on June 30, up from 1.8 percent on June 27. [June 30th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5556929601219862392\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5556929601219862392","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5556929601219862392"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5556929601219862392"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/06\/q2-gdp-tracking-around-2.html","title":"Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});