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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"28133"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4926062786225187630"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-14T07:00:00.025-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-14T07:00:00.855-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications increased 16.0 percent from one  week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage  Applications Survey for the week ending July 9, 2021. This week’s results include an adjustment for the  Fourth of July holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E... The Refinance Index increased 20 percent from the previous  week and was 29 percent lower than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase  Index increased 8 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E29 percent lower than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“Overall applications climbed last week, driven heavily by increased refinancing as rates dipped again.  Treasury yields have trended lower over the past month as investors remained concerned about the  COVID-19 variant and slowing economic growth,” said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of  Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Mortgage rates fell for the second consecutive week as a result,  with the 30-year fixed rate hitting 3.09 percent, its lowest level since February 2021. Refinance  applications increased over 20 percent last week after adjusting for the July 4th holiday, aided by a 23  percent increase in conventional refinance applications. Also, there may have been a delayed spillover of  applications from the previous week, when rates also decreased but there was not much of response in  terms of refinance applications.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EAdded Kan: “Purchase applications increased last week, but average loan sizes decreased to their lowest  level since January 2021. We continue to see ebbs and flows as housing demand remains strong but for-sale inventory remains low. However, lower rates may be helping some home buyers close on their  purchases, especially first-time home buyers. \u003Cb\u003EThe year-over-year comparisons were down significantly for  both purchase and refinance applications, as they were relative to a non-holiday week in 2020\u003C\/b\u003E.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E   ...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.09 percent from 3.15 percent, with points decreasing to 0.37 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6AvYefdko58\/YO4Vo0gEZ0I\/AAAAAAAA6MI\/YDpoIqtl22chAn9AHInuoCvSkQIn9m9ggCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1083\/MBARefiJuly142021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6AvYefdko58\/YO4Vo0gEZ0I\/AAAAAAAA6MI\/YDpoIqtl22chAn9AHInuoCvSkQIn9m9ggCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBARefiJuly142021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith low rates, the index remains elevated, and increased last week as rates declined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-KIipk6LFqhs\/YO4VrJjA25I\/AAAAAAAA6MM\/XN-dWhK3D5wcO7JHVKh-addI3jsd-3T6QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1090\/MBAJuly142021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-KIipk6LFqhs\/YO4VrJjA25I\/AAAAAAAA6MM\/XN-dWhK3D5wcO7JHVKh-addI3jsd-3T6QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBAJuly142021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 29% year-over-year unadjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now difficult since purchase activity picked up in late May 2020.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4926062786225187630\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4926062786225187630","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4926062786225187630"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4926062786225187630"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/mba-mortgage-applications-increase-in.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6AvYefdko58\/YO4Vo0gEZ0I\/AAAAAAAA6MI\/YDpoIqtl22chAn9AHInuoCvSkQIn9m9ggCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBARefiJuly142021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2864051039697553009"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-13T21:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-13T21:00:00.558-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: PPI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Beige Book"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for June\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in PPI, and a 0.5% increase in core PPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 12:00 PM, \u003Cb\u003ETestimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E, \u003Ci\u003ESemiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress\u003C\/i\u003E, Before the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 2:00 PM, the \u003Cb\u003EFederal Reserve Beige Book\u003C\/b\u003E, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2864051039697553009\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2864051039697553009","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2864051039697553009"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2864051039697553009"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/wednesday-ppi-fed-chair-powell.html","title":"Wednesday: PPI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Beige Book"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2434258985129753333"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-13T16:54:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-13T16:54:40.275-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"A Few Excerpts from a Local Commercial Real Estate Report: \"Good news is construction activity has all but stopped\" "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Voit Real Estate Services released their Q2 reports on Commercial Real Estate (CRE) in SoCal.  Here are a few excerpts from the Orange County Office report:\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"The Orange County office market struggled again in 2Q. It had already been slowing before the pandemic hit, and by virtue of the higher employee density and multi-tenant configuration of office product, the office sector was hit harder by COVID than other sectors. \u003Cb\u003EVacancy and availability both moved higher, and net absorption remained in negative territory\u003C\/b\u003E. Average asking lease rates were relatively flat, but they alone do not tell the full story, as \u003Cb\u003Elandlord concessions have risen sharply\u003C\/b\u003E and are not reflected in market metrics. Office tenants are still trying to sort out how to fold their workforces back into the office, and that has delayed decision-making regarding relocations and renewals.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe vacancy rate in Orange County rose to 13.76%, up  61 basis points in 2Q. That came on top of a 116-basis-point spike in 1Q. The increase was  expected given how many moves have been put on hold to re-evaluate space utilization.  \u003Cb\u003EClass A product is under the most stress\u003C\/b\u003E. Vacancy in those buildings rose to 18.28% in 2Q,  compared with 10.96% for Class B and just 8.75% for Class C.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EFewer relocations and an increase in short-term renewals significantly  impacted net absorption in 1Q, and the same held true in 2Q. Net absorption was in negative  territory again in 2Q, posting a net loss of 512,502 SF, after recording a loss of more than 1.2 MSF in the opening quarter. Consistent negative absorption points to a future increase in  vacancy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe good news is that construction activity has all but stopped\u003C\/b\u003E for the  moment, which gives the market a chance to reabsorb existing unoccupied space and clear  off some of the lower-priced sublease space. Just 439,206 SF of office space was in the  construction queue as 2Q ended, all of it in one project in Costa Mesa, The Press. Another  1.7 MSF of space is in the planning stage but is not expected to get underway until market  conditions improve.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2434258985129753333\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2434258985129753333","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2434258985129753333"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2434258985129753333"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/a-few-excerpts-from-local-commercial.html","title":"A Few Excerpts from a Local Commercial Real Estate Report: \"Good news is construction activity has all but stopped\" "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6062743123910453628"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-13T15:38:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-13T15:38:29.696-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"July 13th COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal doses administered: 334,942,236, as of a week ago 331,214,347.  \u003Cb\u003EAverage doses last week: 0.53 million per day.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYesterday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent over 18,\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne Dose\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated\u003Cbr \/\u003E(millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E159.7\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E159.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E157.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥160\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E21,420\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E20,100\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14,981\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3🚩\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14,308\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,831\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,418\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E194\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E176\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E163\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E America's Short Term Goals,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,\u0026nbsp; Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland,\u0026nbsp;Washington, New Hampshire,\u0026nbsp;New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware,\u0026nbsp;Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up are Wisconsin at 66.1%, Florida at 65.9%,\u0026nbsp;Nebraska at 65.9%, Utah at 65.2%, South Dakota at 64.8%, and Iowa at 64.4%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-D-HQAp15Its\/YO3h0_NXfWI\/AAAAAAAA6MA\/vp8evaPLIWY6nEs40Lc5bRrSjN3MIrmdQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1414\/COVIDCasesJuly132021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-D-HQAp15Its\/YO3h0_NXfWI\/AAAAAAAA6MA\/vp8evaPLIWY6nEs40Lc5bRrSjN3MIrmdQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesJuly132021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr br=\"\" \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe 7-day average cases is the highest since May 26th.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6062743123910453628\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6062743123910453628","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6062743123910453628"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6062743123910453628"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/july-13th-covid-19-new-cases.html","title":"July 13th COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-D-HQAp15Its\/YO3h0_NXfWI\/AAAAAAAA6MA\/vp8evaPLIWY6nEs40Lc5bRrSjN3MIrmdQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesJuly132021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6976313646443987336"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-13T13:49:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-13T13:49:46.874-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Minnesota Real Estate in June: Sales Up 13% YoY, Inventory Down 41% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S.  I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mnrealtor.com\/\"\u003EMinnesota Realtors®\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal Residential Units Sold in June 2021 were 10,386, up 12.9% from 9,203 in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EActive Residential Listings in June 2021 were 10,227, down 40.8% from 17,285 in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonths of Supply was 1.2 Months in June 2021, compared to 2.4 Months in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-r7-MLpZfOpM\/YO3RI-EjHFI\/AAAAAAAA6L4\/y9EyMkVtjUoaNM1mNIo70Lgt73kSIttdgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s977\/MinnInvJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Minnesota Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-r7-MLpZfOpM\/YO3RI-EjHFI\/AAAAAAAA6L4\/y9EyMkVtjUoaNM1mNIo70Lgt73kSIttdgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MinnInvJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph from the Minnesota Realtors® shows inventory in Minnesota since 2012.  Inventory had been trending down, and then was somewhat flat for a few years, and then declined significantly during the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EActive inventory was up 14.2% from the previous month, and up 24.6% seasonally from the all time low in February 2021.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Usually, at this time of the year, we'd expect active inventory of around 23,000 in Minnesota, so current inventory is still extremely low."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6976313646443987336\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6976313646443987336","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6976313646443987336"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6976313646443987336"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/minnesota-real-estate-in-june-sales-up.html","title":"Minnesota Real Estate in June: Sales Up 13% YoY, Inventory Down 41% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-r7-MLpZfOpM\/YO3RI-EjHFI\/AAAAAAAA6L4\/y9EyMkVtjUoaNM1mNIo70Lgt73kSIttdgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MinnInvJune2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9214375359865035946"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-13T13:01:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-13T13:01:36.356-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Colorado Real Estate in June: Sales Up 9% YoY, Inventory Down 59% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.coloradorealtors.com\/\"\u003EColorado Association of REALTORS®\u003C\/a\u003E for the entire state:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClosed sales for Single Family and Townhouse-Condo in June 2021 were 13,014, up 8.9% from 11,952 in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EActive Listings for Single Family and Townhouse-Condo in June 2021 were 9,191, down 58.7% from 22,230 in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory in June was up 7.7% from last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonths of Supply was 0.8 Months in June 2021, compared to 2.4 Months in June 2020."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9214375359865035946\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9214375359865035946","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9214375359865035946"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9214375359865035946"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/colorado-real-estate-in-june-sales-up-9.html","title":"Colorado Real Estate in June: Sales Up 9% YoY, Inventory Down 59% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7872453596446621555"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-13T11:08:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-13T11:08:57.860-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Increased in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The Cleveland Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/en\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/median-cpi.aspx\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% June. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in June. \"The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for June\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/en\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/median-cpi\/current-components.aspx\"\u003Ehere\u003C\/a\u003E.  Used cars and trucks were up 231% annualized.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-dq8AP2IGhQo\/YO2sUj1t37I\/AAAAAAAA6Lw\/ITsNtQuaHio4TAw_ML7T7Fjs0c8xpMhJgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1061\/InflationJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Inflation Measures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-dq8AP2IGhQo\/YO2sUj1t37I\/AAAAAAAA6Lw\/ITsNtQuaHio4TAw_ML7T7Fjs0c8xpMhJgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/InflationJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation.  On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.9%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 4.5%.  Core PCE is for May and increased 3.4% year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7872453596446621555\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7872453596446621555","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7872453596446621555"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7872453596446621555"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/cleveland-fed-key-measures-show.html","title":"Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Increased in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-dq8AP2IGhQo\/YO2sUj1t37I\/AAAAAAAA6Lw\/ITsNtQuaHio4TAw_ML7T7Fjs0c8xpMhJgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/InflationJune2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5421770033538992555"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-13T10:12:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-13T10:12:09.103-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Four months ago, from Jann Swanson at MortgageNewsDaily:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/03112021_loan_underwriting.asp\"\u003EFannie Warns Lenders on Investment Properties and 2nd Homes\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm looking at data for some second home markets - and will track those markets to see if there is an impact from the lending changes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through June 2021, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12 month average).\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JyS_Q0hhxfM\/YOy6SlKsbfI\/AAAAAAAA6Lo\/XilbU8uRRZwIhuJZwY9Gtt2sLV0YWbM4wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s940\/SLTJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"South Lake Tahoe\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JyS_Q0hhxfM\/YOy6SlKsbfI\/AAAAAAAA6Lo\/XilbU8uRRZwIhuJZwY9Gtt2sLV0YWbM4wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/SLTJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFollowing the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that inventory was high while prices were declining - and significantly lower inventory in 2012 suggested the bust was over.\u0026nbsp; (Tracking inventory helped me call the bottom for housing way back in February 2012, see:\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2008\/04\/housing-bust-duration.html\"\u003EThe Housing Bottom is Here\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECurrently inventory is still very low, but solidly above the record low set three months ago, and prices are up sharply YoY.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;This will be interesting to watch."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5421770033538992555\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5421770033538992555","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5421770033538992555"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5421770033538992555"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/second-home-market-south-lake-tahoe-in.html","title":"Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JyS_Q0hhxfM\/YOy6SlKsbfI\/AAAAAAAA6Lo\/XilbU8uRRZwIhuJZwY9Gtt2sLV0YWbM4wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/SLTJune2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1768915716289235381"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-13T08:31:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-13T08:31:58.016-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: CPI increased 0.9% in June, Core CPI increased 0.9%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\"\u003EFrom the BLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent in June\u003C\/b\u003E on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was the largest 1-month change since June 2008 when the index rose 1.0 percent. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment; this was the largest 12-month increase since a 5.4-percent increase for the period ending August 2008.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply, increasing 10.5 percent in June. This increase accounted for more than one-third of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index increased 0.8 percent in June, a larger increase than the 0.4-percent increase reported for May. The energy index increased 1.5 percent in June, with the gasoline index rising 2.5 percent over the month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in June\u003C\/b\u003E after increasing 0.7 percent in May. Many of the same indexes continued to increase, including used cars and trucks, new vehicles, airline fares, and apparel. The index for medical care and the index for household furnishings and operations were among the few major component indexes which decreased in June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe all items index rose 5.4 percent for the 12 months ending June\u003C\/b\u003E; it has been trending up every month since January, when the 12-month change was 1.4 percent. \u003Cb\u003EThe index for all items less food and energy rose 4.5 percent over the last 12-months\u003C\/b\u003E, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1991. The energy index rose 24.5 percent over the last 12-months, and the food index increased 2.4 percent. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ECPI and core CPI were well above expectations.  I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1768915716289235381\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1768915716289235381","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1768915716289235381"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1768915716289235381"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/bls-cpi-increased-09-in-june-core-cpi.html","title":"BLS: CPI increased 0.9% in June, Core CPI increased 0.9%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2260683965973228537"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-12T21:00:00.006-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-12T21:00:00.574-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: CPI"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/blog\/980247.aspx\"\u003EMBS RECAP: Still on a Fence as Bonds Work Through Early-Week Risks\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWe closed out last week on a fence about the short term outlook for rates.  On the one hand, Friday was fairly weak.  On the other hand that weakness followed 3 great days of gains and could furthermore be rationalized as defensive positioning ahead of early risks in the week ahead.  We made it through half of those risks on Monday (3 and 10yr Treasury auction) with minimal damage, but certainly no major gains.  As such, bonds look like they're keeping their options open for now.  We hope to get a better lay of the land after tomorrow's events (CPI and 30yr bond auction).  [\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/data\/30-year-mortgage-rates.aspx\"\u003E30 year fixed 3.09%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ETuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB \u003Cb\u003ESmall Business Optimism Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for June\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in CPI, and a 0.4% increase in core CPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2260683965973228537\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2260683965973228537","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2260683965973228537"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2260683965973228537"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/tuesday-cpi.html","title":"Tuesday: CPI"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-466583290290510125"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-12T16:00:00.016-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-12T16:00:00.525-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA Survey: \"Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.76%\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: This is as of July 4th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EShare of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.76%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance  and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 11 basis points from 3.87% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to \u003Cb\u003E3.76% as of July 4, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.9 million homeowners are in forbearance plans\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 8 basis points to 1.91%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 32 basis points to 4.78%, while the forbearance share for  portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 2 basis points to 7.94%. The percentage of  loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 13 basis points to 3.87%,  and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers also decreased 13 basis points to 3.98%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Forbearance exits increased in the week of the July 4th holiday to the fastest pace since early April,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “New requests stayed very low,  resulting in a large drop in the share of loans in forbearance, particularly for Ginnie Mae loans, which  also continue to be impacted by buyouts of delinquent loans. These loans are tracked as portfolio loans  after a buyout.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAdded Fratantoni, “The mortgage delinquency rate across the entire servicing portfolio declined in June  compared to May. However, the delinquency rate slightly increased for homeowners who have  completed a workout. Borrowers who are exiting forbearance now are likely to have been in relief for  over a year, with almost 60 percent of borrowers in forbearance extensions of longer than 12 months.  These borrowers may face more challenges getting back to making regular payments.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-EOQKQWvhAU4\/YOyOxi4ZJrI\/AAAAAAAA6Lg\/_pGVhOYrRGgWF2r7lt7sqsocqHAXnWwMQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1195\/MBAForbearJuly122021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"MBA Forbearance Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-EOQKQWvhAU4\/YOyOxi4ZJrI\/AAAAAAAA6Lg\/_pGVhOYrRGgWF2r7lt7sqsocqHAXnWwMQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBAForbearJuly122021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.\u0026nbsp; Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe MBA notes: \"Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained the same relative to the prior week at 0.04%.\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/here-help-homeowners\/introducing-covid-19-payment-deferral\"\u003EDeferral plans\u003C\/a\u003E are very popular.  Basically when the homeowner exits forbearance, they just go back to making their regular monthly payments, they are not charged interest on the missed payments, and the unpaid balanced is deferred until the end of the mortgage."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/466583290290510125\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=466583290290510125","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/466583290290510125"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/466583290290510125"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in_01749068918.html","title":"MBA Survey: \"Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.76%\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-EOQKQWvhAU4\/YOyOxi4ZJrI\/AAAAAAAA6Lg\/_pGVhOYrRGgWF2r7lt7sqsocqHAXnWwMQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBAForbearJuly122021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1976160811556261634"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-12T15:34:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-12T15:34:14.682-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"July 12th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESpecial Note\u003C\/b\u003E: There was no data released on July 5th observance of Independence Day, so a \"week ago\" data is as of Sunday, July 4th.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal doses administered: 334,600,770, as of a week ago 330,604,253.  \u003Cb\u003EAverage doses last week: 0.50 million per day.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYesterday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent over 18,\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne Dose\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated\u003Cbr \/\u003E(millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E159.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E159.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E157.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥160\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E15,497\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E16,706\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14,479\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3🚩\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,831\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13,273\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,904\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E156\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E162\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E174\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E America's Short Term Goals,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,\u0026nbsp; Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland,\u0026nbsp;Washington, New Hampshire,\u0026nbsp;New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware,\u0026nbsp;Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up are Wisconsin at 66.0%, Florida at 65.8%,\u0026nbsp;Nebraska at 65.8%, Utah at 65.0%, South Dakota at 64.7%, and Iowa at 64.4%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-LrBbJRv5cHE\/YOyMavVO6XI\/AAAAAAAA6LY\/5xbSgJ76tw896G_kEpMoSrrBs45Oevf_wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1411\/COVIDCasesJuly122021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-LrBbJRv5cHE\/YOyMavVO6XI\/AAAAAAAA6LY\/5xbSgJ76tw896G_kEpMoSrrBs45Oevf_wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesJuly122021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr br=\"\" \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1976160811556261634\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1976160811556261634","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1976160811556261634"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1976160811556261634"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/july-12th-covid-19-new-cases.html","title":"July 12th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-LrBbJRv5cHE\/YOyMavVO6XI\/AAAAAAAA6LY\/5xbSgJ76tw896G_kEpMoSrrBs45Oevf_wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesJuly122021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5016194486595410683"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-12T15:12:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-12T15:12:21.603-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"South Carolina Real Estate in June: Sales Up 15% YoY, Inventory Down 49% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S.  I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.screaltors.org\/\"\u003ESouth Carolina Realtors\u003C\/a\u003E for the entire state:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClosed sales in June 2021 were 11,096, up 14.7% from 9,676 in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EActive Listings in June 2021 were 11,578, down 48.9% from 22,676 in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory in June was up 2.7% from the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonths of Supply was 1.2 Months in June 2021, compared to 2.8 Months in June 2020."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5016194486595410683\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5016194486595410683","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5016194486595410683"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5016194486595410683"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/south-carolina-real-estate-in-june.html","title":"South Carolina Real Estate in June: Sales Up 15% YoY, Inventory Down 49% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7934640271450183688"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-12T13:04:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-12T13:04:18.326-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Boston Real Estate in June: Sales Up 77% YoY, Inventory Down 19% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor Boston (single family and condos):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EClosed sales in June 2021 were 3,444, up 77.3% from 1,942 in June 2020.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EActive Listings in June 2021 were 3,822, down 18.6% from 4,697 in June 2020.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory in June was up 11.8% from last month.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7934640271450183688\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7934640271450183688","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7934640271450183688"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7934640271450183688"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/boston-real-estate-in-june-sales-up-77.html","title":"Boston Real Estate in June: Sales Up 77% YoY, Inventory Down 19% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7453275716273097945"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-12T12:01:00.005-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-12T12:01:59.037-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Inventory July 12th Update: Inventory Unchanged Week-over-week, Up 22% from Low in early April"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ETracking existing home inventory will be very important this year\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8W0ni1pbBrY\/YOxnMqDAwgI\/AAAAAAAA6LQ\/U83ii0YO0gotg9nQtM5c3VbDXmRHd2r7gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1178\/AltosInvJuly122021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Lumcber Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8W0ni1pbBrY\/YOxnMqDAwgI\/AAAAAAAA6LQ\/U83ii0YO0gotg9nQtM5c3VbDXmRHd2r7gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/AltosInvJuly122021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs of July 2nd, inventory was at 373 thousand (7 day average), compared to 654 thousand the same week a year ago.\u0026nbsp; That is a decline of 43.0%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EA week ago, inventory was at 373 thousand, and was down 44.0% YoY.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESeasonally, \u003Cb\u003Einventory has bottomed\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Inventory was about 21.6% above the record low in early April.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Altos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases, although still well below a normal rate for June.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7453275716273097945\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7453275716273097945","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7453275716273097945"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7453275716273097945"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/housing-inventory-july-12th-update.html","title":"Housing Inventory July 12th Update: Inventory Unchanged Week-over-week, Up 22% from Low in early April"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8W0ni1pbBrY\/YOxnMqDAwgI\/AAAAAAAA6LQ\/U83ii0YO0gotg9nQtM5c3VbDXmRHd2r7gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/AltosInvJuly122021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2741998646725827896"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-12T10:16:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-12T10:16:27.003-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May; Highest Annual Home Price Increase on Record"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Black Knight released their \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/data-reports\/\"\u003EMortgage Monitor report\u003C\/a\u003E for May today.  According to Black Knight, 4.73% of mortgage were delinquent in May, up from 4.66% of mortgages in April, and down from 7.76% in May 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.28% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.38% a year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis gives a total of 5.01% delinquent or in foreclosure.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPress Release: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/black-knights-may-2021-mortgage-monitor\/\"\u003EBlack Knight: Home Prices Surge Nearly 18% Annually as May Sees Greatest Single-Month Acceleration on Record; eMBS Securities Issuance Data Suggests Borrower Behavior Changing in Response\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EToday, the Data \u0026amp; Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/data-reports\/\"\u003EMortgage Monitor Report\u003C\/a\u003E, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. This month’s report looks at the continued, unprecedented levels of home price growth, and the impact that growth is having on mortgage lending and borrower behavior. According to Black Knight Data \u0026amp; Analytics President Ben Graboske, home price appreciation continues to break records, with ramifications that stretch across the real estate and mortgage markets.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“The Black Knight HPI shows home prices in May up nearly 18% from the same time last year,” said Graboske. “Frankly, home values are appreciating at rates we’ve simply never seen before, as low interest rates, ultra-scarce inventory and increasingly competitive homebuyers combine to create a truly unprecedented market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Indeed, the rate of growth has been accelerating by more than 2% in each of the past two months, and May’s 2.1% rise marked the sharpest monthly jump on record. Single-family home prices are up more than 18% from last May – also a record. And the growth has been widespread – home price appreciation accelerated in each of the nation’s 100 largest metros in May, with even the slowest appreciating metro area now seeing at least 10% annual growth. Data from our Collateral Analytics Group suggests even further acceleration may be on tap, as the median sales price of single-family homes in the first three weeks of June was already up 25% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-kOCzhVCtezM\/YOxMxhKw8nI\/AAAAAAAA6LA\/h0WEYzPUuSwBSiCWxDha3yqwgbG5Sv7DQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s748\/BKNDSMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"BKFS\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-kOCzhVCtezM\/YOxMxhKw8nI\/AAAAAAAA6LA\/h0WEYzPUuSwBSiCWxDha3yqwgbG5Sv7DQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/BKNDSMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight:\u003Cblockquote\u003E• May’s mortgage delinquency increase is only the second since the pandemic  recovery began last June and – like the first – appears to be calendar related  and likely temporary\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  • It is expected that delinquencies will continue to slowly normalize through the  remainder of Q2 and into Q3, though full normalization will likely take longer still\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Early-stage delinquencies (30 or 60 days past due) rose by 110K in May, while the  number of seriously delinquent mortgages (90+ days but not yet in foreclosure)  improved for the ninth consecutive month\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-4XIlkdC6i34\/YOxN5-G37MI\/AAAAAAAA6LI\/4YAXS5jD-0w7F7hy9O-8IdRxwxcUFh-qACLcBGAsYHQ\/s695\/BKMonthlyPIMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"BKFS\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-4XIlkdC6i34\/YOxN5-G37MI\/AAAAAAAA6LI\/4YAXS5jD-0w7F7hy9O-8IdRxwxcUFh-qACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/BKMonthlyPIMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd on monthly payments (affordability) from Black Knight: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• Skyrocketing prices are beginning to take a toll on affordability; it now requires $191 (+18%)  more in monthly P\u0026amp;I payments to purchase the average priced home than it did at the start  of the year\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Factoring income into the equation, it now requires 21.3% of the median household income  to make the monthly payment on the average priced home purchase assuming a 20% down  payment\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Even with the average 30-year interest rate hovering at just over 3%, that payment-to-income ratio is up from 18.1% at the beginning of 2021\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• In areas like Los Angeles, the ratio has climbed as high as 46.5%, an unsettling number for  buyers hoping to make the leap into homeownership\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/data-reports\/\"\u003Emortgage monitor\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2741998646725827896\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2741998646725827896","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2741998646725827896"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2741998646725827896"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-for-may.html","title":"Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May; Highest Annual Home Price Increase on Record"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-kOCzhVCtezM\/YOxMxhKw8nI\/AAAAAAAA6LA\/h0WEYzPUuSwBSiCWxDha3yqwgbG5Sv7DQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/BKNDSMay2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5469825505571256688"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-12T08:25:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-12T08:25:36.028-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe TSA is providing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.tsa.gov\/coronavirus\/passenger-throughput\"\u003Edaily travel numbers\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of July 11th.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-oLttwIWUwF8\/YOw0ZTt4SsI\/AAAAAAAA6K4\/mZNTNsjp5jsO_hj6kWerIAvjFA8o8gPmwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1029\/TSAJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"TSA Traveler Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-oLttwIWUwF8\/YOw0ZTt4SsI\/AAAAAAAA6K4\/mZNTNsjp5jsO_hj6kWerIAvjFA8o8gPmwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TSAJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 7-day average is down 20.9% from the same day in 2019 (79.1% of 2019).\u0026nbsp; (Dashed line)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere was a slow increase from the bottom - and TSA data has picked up in 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIMPORTANT: OpenTable notes: \"we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year.\"  Thanks!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1W5jyzt0Fjs\/YOr1hSf8wWI\/AAAAAAAA6Ko\/iIeqwpzgTtM7esup5-4nw0R8k5TVtbikQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1066\/DinersJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Move Box Office\" border=\"0\" data-original-width=\"1077\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1W5jyzt0Fjs\/YOr1hSf8wWI\/AAAAAAAA6Ko\/iIeqwpzgTtM7esup5-4nw0R8k5TVtbikQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/DinersJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is updated through July 10th, 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is \"a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that this data is for \"\u003Cb\u003Eonly the restaurants that have chosen to reopen\u003C\/b\u003E in a given market\".  \u003Cb\u003ESince some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases.\u0026nbsp; Dining is generally picking up, but was down 15% in the US (7-day average compared to 2019).\u0026nbsp; Florida and Texas are above 2019 levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-XW7d97kTUMY\/YOryeuU7qcI\/AAAAAAAA6KQ\/L4Sb5TvYi0sC-xI_RHzsx7g4nDXYeS90QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s890\/MovieJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Move Box Office\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-XW7d97kTUMY\/YOryeuU7qcI\/AAAAAAAA6KQ\/L4Sb5TvYi0sC-xI_RHzsx7g4nDXYeS90QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MovieJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBlue is 2020 and Red is 2021.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 8th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMovie ticket sales were at $115 million last week,\u0026nbsp; down about 61% from the median for the week.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1d654bP4fQ8\/YOhWWbo4QLI\/AAAAAAAA6Jo\/14wXK3k07Vc7bbTMsF9RSVTx18lTfxz-wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1033\/HotelJuly92021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1d654bP4fQ8\/YOhWWbo4QLI\/AAAAAAAA6Jo\/14wXK3k07Vc7bbTMsF9RSVTx18lTfxz-wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/HotelJuly92021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the \u003Cb\u003Efour week average\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOccupancy is now above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E   This data is through July 3rd. Hotel occupancy is currently \u003Cb\u003Edown slightly compared to same week in 2019 (a timing issue with July 4th helped)\u003C\/b\u003E). Note: Occupancy was up year-over-year, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  However, the 4-week average occupancy is still down from normal levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENotes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Pyjkg0NFZTc\/YOrxZn1cdCI\/AAAAAAAA6KI\/JynWJKdt-x8ae5om6Jtxoz6dVMk907u-QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s906\/GasolineJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"gasoline Consumption\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Pyjkg0NFZTc\/YOrxZn1cdCI\/AAAAAAAA6KI\/JynWJKdt-x8ae5om6Jtxoz6dVMk907u-QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/GasolineJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the \u003Cb\u003Esame week of 2019\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBlue is for 2020.\u0026nbsp; Red is for 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs of July 2nd, gasoline supplied was up 2.9% compared to the same week in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is the second week this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.apple.com\/covid19\/mobility\"\u003EApple mobility\u003C\/a\u003E. From Apple: \"This data is generated by counting \u003Cb\u003Ethe number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions\u003C\/b\u003E in select countries\/regions, sub-regions, and cities.\"  This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/mei.aspx\"\u003EMobility and Engagement Index\u003C\/a\u003E.  However the index is set \"relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February\", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-IG9LNGjGGDA\/YOr0N2xTSFI\/AAAAAAAA6Kg\/VWlSz2NjweU9sWhKdc08Fh7DePbJiQPjgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1082\/AppleTransitJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Apple Mobility Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-IG9LNGjGGDA\/YOr0N2xTSFI\/AAAAAAAA6Kg\/VWlSz2NjweU9sWhKdc08Fh7DePbJiQPjgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/AppleTransitJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data is through July 9th for the United States and several selected cities.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020.   This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted.   People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 97% of the January 2020 level and moving up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- New York City Subway Usage -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is some interesting data on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ENew York subway usage\u003C\/a\u003E (HT BR).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-EcD0QGdeOgk\/YOrzAE3IPiI\/AAAAAAAA6KY\/IjErvWXmnXwWcFLnXFsB9g-MYPkZjRehgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s619\/NYCTurnstileJuly92021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New York City Subway Usage\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-EcD0QGdeOgk\/YOrzAE3IPiI\/AAAAAAAA6KY\/IjErvWXmnXwWcFLnXFsB9g-MYPkZjRehgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/NYCTurnstileJuly92021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ETodd W Schneider\u003C\/a\u003E.  This is weekly data since 2015.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMost weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are over 11 million subway turnstile entries per week - and generally increasing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is through Friday, July 9th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESchneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EHe notes: \"Data updates weekly from the MTA’s \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/web.mta.info\/developers\/turnstile.html\"\u003Epublic turnstile data\u003C\/a\u003E, usually on Saturday mornings\".\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5469825505571256688\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5469825505571256688","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5469825505571256688"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5469825505571256688"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for_12.html","title":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-oLttwIWUwF8\/YOw0ZTt4SsI\/AAAAAAAA6K4\/mZNTNsjp5jsO_hj6kWerIAvjFA8o8gPmwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/TSAJuly112021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5188886588784164514"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-11T21:28:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-11T21:28:32.082-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/schedule-for-week-of-july-11-2021.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of July 11, 2021\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• No major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 and DOW futures are unchanged (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOil prices were down over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $74.68 per barrel and Brent at $75.58 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $41, and Brent was at $43 - so \u003Cb\u003EWTI oil prices are UP about 80% year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E (oil prices collapsed at the beginning of the pandemic). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $3.14 per gallon.  A year ago prices were at $2.20 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.94 per gallon year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5188886588784164514\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5188886588784164514","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5188886588784164514"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5188886588784164514"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/sunday-night-futures.html","title":"Sunday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2806482231806471302"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-11T15:48:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-11T15:48:56.350-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"July 11th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ECongratulations to the residents of Connecticut on joining the 80% club!  Well done. Go for 90%!!!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal doses administered: 334,151,648, as of a week ago 330,604,253.  \u003Cb\u003EAverage doses last week: 0.59 million per day.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYesterday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent over 18,\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne Dose\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated\u003Cbr \/\u003E(millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E159.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E159.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E157.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥160\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E17,736\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E16,209\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13,624\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3🚩\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13,273\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13,270\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,904\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E183\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E166\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E184\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E America's Short Term Goals,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,\u0026nbsp; Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland,\u0026nbsp;Washington, New Hampshire,\u0026nbsp;New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware,\u0026nbsp;Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up are Wisconsin at 66.0%, Florida at 65.7%,\u0026nbsp;Nebraska at 65.6%, Utah at 65.0%, South Dakota at 64.7%, and Iowa at 64.3%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JMAhBHaW_-4\/YOtK234toAI\/AAAAAAAA6Kw\/nNpEEzdGoh4tESGwgLOfLyWcSbA4WPmXQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1433\/COVIDHospitalJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JMAhBHaW_-4\/YOtK234toAI\/AAAAAAAA6Kw\/nNpEEzdGoh4tESGwgLOfLyWcSbA4WPmXQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDHospitalJuly112021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of hospitalizations reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2806482231806471302\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2806482231806471302","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2806482231806471302"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2806482231806471302"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/july-11th-covid-19-new-cases.html","title":"July 11th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JMAhBHaW_-4\/YOtK234toAI\/AAAAAAAA6Kw\/nNpEEzdGoh4tESGwgLOfLyWcSbA4WPmXQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDHospitalJuly112021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3317543618077540163"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-11T08:11:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-11T08:11:00.594-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Atlanta Real Estate in June: Sales Up 10% YoY, Inventory Down 56% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S.  I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.gamls.com\/\"\u003EGAMLS\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;for Atlanta:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal Residential Units Sold in June 2021 were 10,035, up 7.8% from 9,310 in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EActive Residential Listings in June 2021 were 7,787, down 55.8% from 17,596 in June 2020.  Inventory was up 3.4% from last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonths of Supply was 0.88 Months in June 2021, compared to 2.31 Months in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Zk9nDzvY7HI\/YOpeLzQ-eVI\/AAAAAAAA6KA\/EPvpf-mWVZoFIUnGedj7KNqXIeb89EzdgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s899\/InvAtlantaJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Georgia MLS Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Zk9nDzvY7HI\/YOpeLzQ-eVI\/AAAAAAAA6KA\/EPvpf-mWVZoFIUnGedj7KNqXIeb89EzdgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/InvAtlantaJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph from the Georgia MLS shows inventory in Atlanta over the last several years - and the sharp decline in inventory at the start of the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory in Atlanta in June was 11.8% above the record low in April 2021."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3317543618077540163\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3317543618077540163","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3317543618077540163"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3317543618077540163"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/atlanta-real-estate-in-june-sales-up-10.html","title":"Atlanta Real Estate in June: Sales Up 10% YoY, Inventory Down 56% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Zk9nDzvY7HI\/YOpeLzQ-eVI\/AAAAAAAA6KA\/EPvpf-mWVZoFIUnGedj7KNqXIeb89EzdgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/InvAtlantaJune2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6882103583214988801"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-10T17:12:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-10T17:12:39.724-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"July 10th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal doses administered: 333,565,404, as of a week ago 329,970,551.  \u003Cb\u003EAverage doses last week: 0.51 million per day.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYesterday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent over 18,\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne Dose\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated\u003Cbr \/\u003E(millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E159.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E158.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E157.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥160\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E17,736\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E16,209\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13,624\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3🚩\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13,270\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,703\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,125\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E183\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E166\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E184\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E America's Short Term Goals,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,\u0026nbsp; Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland,\u0026nbsp;Washington, New Hampshire,\u0026nbsp;New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware,\u0026nbsp;Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up are Wisconsin at 65.9%, Nebraska at 65.6%, Florida at 65.5%, Utah at 65.0%, South Dakota at 64.7%, and Iowa at 64.3%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iu2bRYzJnXk\/YOoMtbw50zI\/AAAAAAAA6J4\/fp8B3p-Ql6MAY8kh4z6yrV_5JiQwYWbLgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1408\/COVIDCasesJuly102021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iu2bRYzJnXk\/YOoMtbw50zI\/AAAAAAAA6J4\/fp8B3p-Ql6MAY8kh4z6yrV_5JiQwYWbLgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesJuly102021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe 7-day average cases is the highest since the end of May.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6882103583214988801\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6882103583214988801","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6882103583214988801"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6882103583214988801"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/july-10th-covid-19-new-cases.html","title":"July 10th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iu2bRYzJnXk\/YOoMtbw50zI\/AAAAAAAA6J4\/fp8B3p-Ql6MAY8kh4z6yrV_5JiQwYWbLgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesJuly102021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3055389147910206805"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-10T07:50:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-10T07:50:44.752-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of July 11, 2021"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key reports this week are June CPI and retail sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, July 12th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENo major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, July 13th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E6:00 AM ET: NFIB \u003Cb\u003ESmall Business Optimism Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for June\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in CPI, and a 0.4% increase in core CPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, July 14th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for June\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in PPI, and a 0.5% increase in core PPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E12:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003ETestimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E, \u003Ci\u003ESemiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress\u003C\/i\u003E, Before the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2:00 PM: the \u003Cb\u003EFederal Reserve Beige Book\u003C\/b\u003E, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, July 15th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for a decrease to 350 thousand from 373 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The New York Fed \u003Cb\u003EEmpire State manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for July.  The consensus is for a reading of 18.7, up from 17.4.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for July.  The consensus is for a reading of 28.0, down from 30.7.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1F8kvoQseRU\/YMir3RPFWwI\/AAAAAAAA55k\/tuWXO5xaQgAB3ZwRK_2__-fVJmPq-tAxgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1005\/IPMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1F8kvoQseRU\/YMir3RPFWwI\/AAAAAAAA55k\/tuWXO5xaQgAB3ZwRK_2__-fVJmPq-tAxgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/IPMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E9:15 AM: The Fed will release \u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/b\u003E for June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows industrial production since 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is for a 0.7% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 75.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E9:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ETestimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E, \u003Ci\u003ESemiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress\u003C\/i\u003E, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, July 16th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-XBXBGSyLsIE\/YMifRAgCv8I\/AAAAAAAA55E\/1eYrtLtBFr0wtqM3KhtkHqvrDW8XBkTkwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1046\/RetailMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-XBXBGSyLsIE\/YMifRAgCv8I\/AAAAAAAA55E\/1eYrtLtBFr0wtqM3KhtkHqvrDW8XBkTkwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/RetailMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ERetail sales\u003C\/b\u003E for June is scheduled to be released. \u0026nbsp;The consensus is for 0.4% decrease in retail sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERetail sales ex-gasoline were down 1.5% in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Preliminary for July).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EState Employment and Unemployment\u003C\/b\u003E (Monthly) for June 2020"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3055389147910206805\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3055389147910206805","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3055389147910206805"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3055389147910206805"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/schedule-for-week-of-july-11-2021.html","title":"Schedule for Week of July 11, 2021"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1F8kvoQseRU\/YMir3RPFWwI\/AAAAAAAA55k\/tuWXO5xaQgAB3ZwRK_2__-fVJmPq-tAxgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/IPMay2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3319416830762857130"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-09T16:17:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-09T16:17:00.455-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Portland Real Estate in June: Sales Up 28% YoY, Inventory Down 34% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic. I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S.  I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor Portland, OR:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClosed sales in June 2021 were 3,477, up 28.3% from 2,709 in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EActive Residential Listings in June 2021 were 2,722, down 33.8% from 4,109 in June 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory in June was up 16.4% from last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonths of Supply was 0.8 Months in June 2021, compared to 1.5 Months in June 2020."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3319416830762857130\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3319416830762857130","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3319416830762857130"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3319416830762857130"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/portland-real-estate-in-june-sales-up.html","title":"Portland Real Estate in June: Sales Up 28% YoY, Inventory Down 34% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1672574522502632194"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-09T14:55:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-09T14:55:41.665-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"July 9th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal doses administered: 332,966,409, as of a week ago 328,809,470.  \u003Cb\u003EAverage doses last week: 0.59 million per day.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYesterday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent over 18,\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne Dose\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated\u003Cbr \/\u003E(millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E158.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E158.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E156.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥160\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E16,100\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14,888\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13,242\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3🚩\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,703\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,419\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,015\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E165\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E153\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E195\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E America's Short Term Goals,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,\u0026nbsp; Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland,\u0026nbsp;Washington, New Hampshire,\u0026nbsp;New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware,\u0026nbsp;Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up are Wisconsin at 65.9%, Nebraska at 65.6%, Florida at 65.4%, Utah at 64.9%, South Dakota at 64.6%, and Iowa at 64.2%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-w5B_xC10dDI\/YOia6VvLRTI\/AAAAAAAA6Jw\/mDymyBfgXskuqfiZ_15Lixcu-ADiMSEHgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1408\/COVIDCasesJuly92021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-w5B_xC10dDI\/YOia6VvLRTI\/AAAAAAAA6Jw\/mDymyBfgXskuqfiZ_15Lixcu-ADiMSEHgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesJuly92021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe 7-day average cases is the highest since the end of May.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1672574522502632194\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1672574522502632194","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1672574522502632194"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1672574522502632194"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/july-9th-covid-19-new-cases.html","title":"July 9th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-w5B_xC10dDI\/YOia6VvLRTI\/AAAAAAAA6Jw\/mDymyBfgXskuqfiZ_15Lixcu-ADiMSEHgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesJuly92021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5399404838133917114"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-09T13:30:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-09T13:30:31.784-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 9%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe continue to track \u003Cb\u003E2Q GDP growth of 9.5% qoq saar\u003C\/b\u003E. [July 9 estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman Sachs: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe left our \u003Cb\u003EQ2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +8.5% (qoq ar)\u003C\/b\u003E. [July 9 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/policy\/nowcast.html\"\u003ENY Fed Nowcasting Report\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at \u003Cb\u003E3.2% for 2021:Q2\u003C\/b\u003E and 3.8% for 2021:Q3. [July 9 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the \u003Cb\u003Esecond quarter of 2021 is 7.9 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on July 9, up from 7.8 percent on July 2. [July 9 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5399404838133917114\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5399404838133917114","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5399404838133917114"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5399404838133917114"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/q2-gdp-forecasts-around-9.html","title":"Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 9%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});