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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"33669"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6068595257606101932"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-20T18:29:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-20T18:29:29.126-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Monday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Tuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• No major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 are up 32 and DOW futures are up 225 (fair value)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6068595257606101932\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/6068595257606101932","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6068595257606101932"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6068595257606101932"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/monday-night-futures.html","title":"Monday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1521360429582008728"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-20T14:04:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-20T14:04:38.014-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/173-million-total-housing-completions\"\u003E1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EAlthough total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply year-over-year. There were 1.731 million total completions and placements in 2024, up 12.5% compared to 2023, and the most since 2006.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNot counting Manufactured homes, there are 1.628 million completions in 2024, up 12.4% from 1.449 million in 2023, and also the most since 2006.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjlPL5QDWBUU4XErgAT-9T4FOKFHqcsAfU6zKggbo_cEYbzL4DMe6oGzY0xtSSrtgVWE40RRNV0egs6r6ZMwHLOUxn-WrMQOCPR47J5FrsPXoaiAODWell-zbgkj2CKDrBpj3z1DEpy1I4P_bWsXIKzBC92Hz0A4xDhwiIDqVlGNuWR3Q7W4iK1\/s856\/Completions2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Total Completions\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjlPL5QDWBUU4XErgAT-9T4FOKFHqcsAfU6zKggbo_cEYbzL4DMe6oGzY0xtSSrtgVWE40RRNV0egs6r6ZMwHLOUxn-WrMQOCPR47J5FrsPXoaiAODWell-zbgkj2CKDrBpj3z1DEpy1I4P_bWsXIKzBC92Hz0A4xDhwiIDqVlGNuWR3Q7W4iK1\/s320\/Completions2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe housing start report last week indicated 1,020.4 thousand single family completions in 2024 (red), up 2.2% from 998.8 thousand in 2023.  There were 16.8 thousand completions of 2-to-4 units, and \u003Cb\u003E590.6 thousand completions of 5+ units (blue), up 35% from 2023, and the most since 1974!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1521360429582008728\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/1521360429582008728","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1521360429582008728"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1521360429582008728"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/173-million-total-housing-completions.html","title":"1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjlPL5QDWBUU4XErgAT-9T4FOKFHqcsAfU6zKggbo_cEYbzL4DMe6oGzY0xtSSrtgVWE40RRNV0egs6r6ZMwHLOUxn-WrMQOCPR47J5FrsPXoaiAODWell-zbgkj2CKDrBpj3z1DEpy1I4P_bWsXIKzBC92Hz0A4xDhwiIDqVlGNuWR3Q7W4iK1\/s72-c\/Completions2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6144173775505856823"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-20T11:17:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-20T11:17:00.118-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in 2024, Intermodal Up"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/rail-traffic-data\/\"\u003ERail Time Indicators\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Ci\u003EGraphs and excerpts reprinted with permission\u003C\/i\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EFor the full year 2024, total U.S. carloads were 11.34 million, down 2.9% (343,156 carloads) from 2023 and down 2.3% (265,491 carloads) from 2022. ... Carloads excluding coal, on the other hand, rose in 2024 — up 1.4%, or 117,264 carloads, over 2023 and their third year-over-year gain in the past four years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nU.S. railroads originated 13.84 million containers and trailers in 2024, the most since 2021; the third most ever (behind 2018 and 2021); and up 9.3% (1.17 million units) over 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhR9kWWJBCIVVgp_K5gfN2Ed3qqAmpnaY8V_ZleqqoryYg0RFI-wNyp41p23g9acvGs-HCLQVnHryJ6sz-tXtaABpBBeM0rrgewAEtWde6U0PgpgVVyH5Gy3b5jVjbFe9cw6f-PXz8kTyI3tWQ4FV9BhoDTyTIsP6_iZ75x5USe4DhsXnkF9_T7\/s828\/AARCarloadsDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhR9kWWJBCIVVgp_K5gfN2Ed3qqAmpnaY8V_ZleqqoryYg0RFI-wNyp41p23g9acvGs-HCLQVnHryJ6sz-tXtaABpBBeM0rrgewAEtWde6U0PgpgVVyH5Gy3b5jVjbFe9cw6f-PXz8kTyI3tWQ4FV9BhoDTyTIsP6_iZ75x5USe4DhsXnkF9_T7\/s320\/AARCarloadsDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/popular-publications\/rail-time-indicators\"\u003ERail Time Indicators report\u003C\/a\u003E shows the six-week average for carloads for the last 3 years.\u0026nbsp; Total carloads were down 2.0% in Q4 YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003ETotal originated carloads on U.S. railroads in the fourth quarter of 2024 fell 2.0%, or 57,285 carloads, \nfrom the fourth quarter of 2023. Total carloads fell year-over-year each quarter in 2024 after rising \n(albeit modestly) in three of the four quarters of 2023. Total carloads averaged 220,336 per week in \nQ4 2024. In our records that begin in 1988, only 2020 had a lower fourth-quarter weekly average.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjjtWSk2aBdFTe0Q72bkec9jRjzwY4E7r8gQGaLmIJK6ncq4xhJKEsJ2HTICAowPq04_7i9UjeGVrstn1uKYWb0O9UDMmWm5T9rJRcBjpa6Jfku5inZloVKt3Mqiu4NiBPpsh-_NfXbTKwbTZuWeJnHO611kNWeT9hn-r3yuPplo3MvgU_zFlHC\/s833\/AARIntermodalDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjjtWSk2aBdFTe0Q72bkec9jRjzwY4E7r8gQGaLmIJK6ncq4xhJKEsJ2HTICAowPq04_7i9UjeGVrstn1uKYWb0O9UDMmWm5T9rJRcBjpa6Jfku5inZloVKt3Mqiu4NiBPpsh-_NfXbTKwbTZuWeJnHO611kNWeT9hn-r3yuPplo3MvgU_zFlHC\/s320\/AARIntermodalDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd on Intermodal:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn Q4 2024, intermodal averaged 279,275 units per week, up 8.8% over Q4 2023 and the most ever for \na fourth quarter in our records. (Q3 2018 and Q2 2021 were higher among all quarters.) Container \nvolume averaged 269,460 per week in Q4 2024, up 10.0% over Q4 2023 and the most ever for any \nquarter.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E Note: \u003Cb\u003Erail traffic was weak even before the pandemic\u003C\/b\u003E.  As AAR noted: \"Trade tensions and declining mfrg. output lead to lower rail volumes\" in 2019.\u0026nbsp; These factors might impact rail traffic again in 2025."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6144173775505856823\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/6144173775505856823","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6144173775505856823"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6144173775505856823"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/aar-rail-carloads-down-yoy-in-2024.html","title":"AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in 2024, Intermodal Up"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhR9kWWJBCIVVgp_K5gfN2Ed3qqAmpnaY8V_ZleqqoryYg0RFI-wNyp41p23g9acvGs-HCLQVnHryJ6sz-tXtaABpBBeM0rrgewAEtWde6U0PgpgVVyH5Gy3b5jVjbFe9cw6f-PXz8kTyI3tWQ4FV9BhoDTyTIsP6_iZ75x5USe4DhsXnkF9_T7\/s72-c\/AARCarloadsDec2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-607187623886041154"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-20T08:11:00.030-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-20T08:11:00.119-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EInventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February.\u003C\/b\u003E  If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has happened before.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EThe first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.\u003C\/div\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh6HIlt_19-11-y2hp7XNhHIhNLf9sEQi_dVdynGiSDzeyGJROH_doJoYyTyCnchjTUrOqdt4mqJ9yyeKLbLWfnru4sX1NBUclRJGJqUtji1A4wwGO5kpz407qa1IcJ0jd9ct5DTq5ntm7OcoTJC9KvDzijdPCRnZe2B7sK8Ed6-0Rrd-1xOc8w\/s1086\/AltosYoYJan202025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh6HIlt_19-11-y2hp7XNhHIhNLf9sEQi_dVdynGiSDzeyGJROH_doJoYyTyCnchjTUrOqdt4mqJ9yyeKLbLWfnru4sX1NBUclRJGJqUtji1A4wwGO5kpz407qa1IcJ0jd9ct5DTq5ntm7OcoTJC9KvDzijdPCRnZe2B7sK8Ed6-0Rrd-1xOc8w\/s320\/AltosYoYJan202025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe red line is for 2024.\u0026nbsp; The black line is for 2019.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory was up 24.8% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 23.6%), and down 23.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.3%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBack in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so \u003Cb\u003Ethe gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhkK1htgepKHVNN3Xtfy5yvFaJXseQg4NGEIitFwa3HLOlL0Rs1IJGL4IbdknR8WSzDcmwCWREWeSQXae5MqvBt1ZZMphIarX2EGm2CbEMT1YTHRfjwuULS_7qbprSJFYxw5Slaj0RDjLyuleIS0BkcfTwbxt5utJCtGiEgAUcM-GYtYvkQM3Yc\/s1162\/AltosJan202025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhkK1htgepKHVNN3Xtfy5yvFaJXseQg4NGEIitFwa3HLOlL0Rs1IJGL4IbdknR8WSzDcmwCWREWeSQXae5MqvBt1ZZMphIarX2EGm2CbEMT1YTHRfjwuULS_7qbprSJFYxw5Slaj0RDjLyuleIS0BkcfTwbxt5utJCtGiEgAUcM-GYtYvkQM3Yc\/s320\/AltosJan202025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis second inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nAs of Jan 17th, inventory was at 632 thousand (7-day average), compared to 624 thousand the prior week.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/607187623886041154\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/607187623886041154","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/607187623886041154"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/607187623886041154"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/housing-jan-20th-weekly-update.html","title":"Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh6HIlt_19-11-y2hp7XNhHIhNLf9sEQi_dVdynGiSDzeyGJROH_doJoYyTyCnchjTUrOqdt4mqJ9yyeKLbLWfnru4sX1NBUclRJGJqUtji1A4wwGO5kpz407qa1IcJ0jd9ct5DTq5ntm7OcoTJC9KvDzijdPCRnZe2B7sK8Ed6-0Rrd-1xOc8w\/s72-c\/AltosYoYJan202025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1353512063013268766"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-19T19:16:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-19T19:16:00.122-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night: Markets Closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/schedule-for-week-of-january-19-2025.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of January 19, 2025\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• All \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nyse.com\/markets\/hours-calendars#holidays\"\u003EUS markets\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaqtrader.com\/Trader.aspx?id=Calendar\"\u003Ewill be closed\u003C\/a\u003E in observance of \u003Cb\u003EMartin Luther King Jr. Day\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOil prices were up over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $77.88 per barrel and Brent at $80.79 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are up about 5% year-over-year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $3.11 per gallon.  A year ago, prices were at $3.10 per gallon, so gasoline prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1353512063013268766\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/1353512063013268766","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1353512063013268766"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1353512063013268766"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/sunday-night-markets-closed-in.html","title":"Sunday Night: Markets Closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7575558196936596487"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-19T08:14:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-19T08:14:00.128-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom STR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/str.com\/press-release\/us-hotel-results-week-ending-11-january\"\u003EU.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 49.2% (-7.7%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Average daily rate (ADR): US$144.03 (-5.9%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$70.92 (-13.2%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhxFZuuGtSn8e3r6Y3HCsI0X1rxKG3SIodvyDZHZqc-Kq-ghyphenhyphenOLUGXITlWA90AnmngqW4GaF8fZUnyPmTlUgLpxqpEegRBcvUv9tmyBw9jOeRxmy_93m18MB2IMfPqvGDoQHM0bZXaM6ZxQUpcLJCh9tM0IzLCXtKVpc27vNKMPt7iw5J_Tjee_\/s1035\/HotelJan182025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhxFZuuGtSn8e3r6Y3HCsI0X1rxKG3SIodvyDZHZqc-Kq-ghyphenhyphenOLUGXITlWA90AnmngqW4GaF8fZUnyPmTlUgLpxqpEegRBcvUv9tmyBw9jOeRxmy_93m18MB2IMfPqvGDoQHM0bZXaM6ZxQUpcLJCh9tM0IzLCXtKVpc27vNKMPt7iw5J_Tjee_\/s320\/HotelJan182025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.\u0026nbsp; Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is the weakest period of the year for hotel occupancy and the 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next several months.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7575558196936596487\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/7575558196936596487","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7575558196936596487"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7575558196936596487"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-77-year.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 7.7% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhxFZuuGtSn8e3r6Y3HCsI0X1rxKG3SIodvyDZHZqc-Kq-ghyphenhyphenOLUGXITlWA90AnmngqW4GaF8fZUnyPmTlUgLpxqpEegRBcvUv9tmyBw9jOeRxmy_93m18MB2IMfPqvGDoQHM0bZXaM6ZxQUpcLJCh9tM0IzLCXtKVpc27vNKMPt7iw5J_Tjee_\/s72-c\/HotelJan182025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7209840959730588845"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-18T14:11:00.023-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-18T14:11:00.132-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEia9lX-CfBXGBaKS8fgfZHIG2PaHJMjdDxCenTFygZu_VIxHxujcsbXoUqY0MhobJouQXX2_lrGCslRaTgTIG8tMYfcR0FTnphJEcBDWsvonDZha9cE8C6EaYG4LCPDljp4kTke6-z55ykA7jpkGn0Wvg_nvDdRYmvnTotfXm9xhoeAF8xNo4C7\/s1017\/STartsShortDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEia9lX-CfBXGBaKS8fgfZHIG2PaHJMjdDxCenTFygZu_VIxHxujcsbXoUqY0MhobJouQXX2_lrGCslRaTgTIG8tMYfcR0FTnphJEcBDWsvonDZha9cE8C6EaYG4LCPDljp4kTke6-z55ykA7jpkGn0Wvg_nvDdRYmvnTotfXm9xhoeAF8xNo4C7\/s320\/STartsShortDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-starts-increased-to-1499\"\u003EHousing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-discussion-with-altos-researchs\"\u003EHousing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home-2cd\"\u003ELawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-bc4\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-886\"\u003EPart 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-e2c\"\u003E2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7209840959730588845\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/7209840959730588845","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7209840959730588845"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7209840959730588845"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this_01164360143.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Housing Starts Down 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEia9lX-CfBXGBaKS8fgfZHIG2PaHJMjdDxCenTFygZu_VIxHxujcsbXoUqY0MhobJouQXX2_lrGCslRaTgTIG8tMYfcR0FTnphJEcBDWsvonDZha9cE8C6EaYG4LCPDljp4kTke6-z55ykA7jpkGn0Wvg_nvDdRYmvnTotfXm9xhoeAF8xNo4C7\/s72-c\/STartsShortDec2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5010532055753555291"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-18T08:11:00.043-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-18T08:11:00.144-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, January 20th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAll \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nyse.com\/markets\/hours-calendars#holidays\"\u003EUS markets\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaqtrader.com\/Trader.aspx?id=Calendar\"\u003Ewill be closed\u003C\/a\u003E in observance of \u003Cb\u003EMartin Luther King Jr. Day\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ci\u003E\"Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.\"\u003C\/i\u003E Martin Luther King Jr.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, January 21st -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNo major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, January 22nd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nDuring the day: The AIA's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, January 23rd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 227 thousand from 217 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n11:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EKansas City Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for January.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, January 24th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhx4fx4FAuZ3cx6B5QlHTCw1bOOy6lHB3grSdsmhboG9CNv4E9gogplZCtxO-bniDrzqIxqJmajvBxIcfDn2-oj9kcSZiyZlEMwwYqPv8-goBZ0z1qfyfrl6Gkloiazq2z7F35MDd3WwYQ5ZKki0YDzhyphenhyphenYSSby3VdS2TJQtLTNeA4piiiV3S4tF\/s1080\/EHSNov2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhx4fx4FAuZ3cx6B5QlHTCw1bOOy6lHB3grSdsmhboG9CNv4E9gogplZCtxO-bniDrzqIxqJmajvBxIcfDn2-oj9kcSZiyZlEMwwYqPv8-goBZ0z1qfyfrl6Gkloiazq2z7F35MDd3WwYQ5ZKki0YDzhyphenhyphenYSSby3VdS2TJQtLTNeA4piiiV3S4tF\/s320\/EHSNov2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EExisting Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Preliminary for January).\n"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5010532055753555291\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/5010532055753555291","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5010532055753555291"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5010532055753555291"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/schedule-for-week-of-january-19-2025.html","title":"Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhx4fx4FAuZ3cx6B5QlHTCw1bOOy6lHB3grSdsmhboG9CNv4E9gogplZCtxO-bniDrzqIxqJmajvBxIcfDn2-oj9kcSZiyZlEMwwYqPv8-goBZ0z1qfyfrl6Gkloiazq2z7F35MDd3WwYQ5ZKki0YDzhyphenhyphenYSSby3VdS2TJQtLTNeA4piiiV3S4tF\/s72-c\/EHSNov2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5435569070773878958"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-17T19:48:00.024-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-17T19:48:00.120-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh8lmZHbd1VLkLVVvraD1_9meZMJT6rpRqNR6TtiNh7uLTqeWPD8xdDQy5F9bOwSDMyxDytrqoy7uLQd26vIfiPogXmdMYQ5AwHWhKgEkCyRkI94kFDZ5PHxRy239zBgKT2WD0pwvBLssmGLtySmIPWV3gl7xJd4S1OqPPP2NUdsYu8y8h1WhGY\/s403\/RatesJan172025.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh8lmZHbd1VLkLVVvraD1_9meZMJT6rpRqNR6TtiNh7uLTqeWPD8xdDQy5F9bOwSDMyxDytrqoy7uLQd26vIfiPogXmdMYQ5AwHWhKgEkCyRkI94kFDZ5PHxRy239zBgKT2WD0pwvBLssmGLtySmIPWV3gl7xJd4S1OqPPP2NUdsYu8y8h1WhGY\/s320\/RatesJan172025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: \"\u003Ci\u003EEffective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u0026nbsp; So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E518\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E524\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths.\u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj42Ixgdc-WWuPNxw7vH-nxLEYCbSx1kq042Iwny-IC-22oVHFPWmrnfW_iYRgv-fOSgwFMeQ-8OcQBk1hvtqgucuskK8VOm92VJGUy0n7OfhkQJHiaXW6dgtyE54aShKnnRkVVTq_9YdFXkgFROflvdbZ3TDpnwzE8pYOquXRDGqZW2EfHvovH\/s1221\/COVIDDeathsJan172025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj42Ixgdc-WWuPNxw7vH-nxLEYCbSx1kq042Iwny-IC-22oVHFPWmrnfW_iYRgv-fOSgwFMeQ-8OcQBk1hvtqgucuskK8VOm92VJGUy0n7OfhkQJHiaXW6dgtyE54aShKnnRkVVTq_9YdFXkgFROflvdbZ3TDpnwzE8pYOquXRDGqZW2EfHvovH\/s320\/COVIDDeathsJan172025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2020.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAlthough weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and at a minimum, I'll continue to post through the Winter.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWeekly deaths have mostly been declining, however weekly deaths are still above the low of 313 in early June 2024.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAnd here is a graph I'm following concerning\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nwss\/rv\/COVID19-nationaltrend.html\"\u003ECOVID in wastewater\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;as of January 16th:\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiDSzagAzZbZNwCsaDMqyOegl_TqPaLmgavAMxoSlVQvfYQDkNf0PV2LbdrBHavAKGm5g54yAS8V0QEDPBUfoMcM5NpBI6yDcHDttRwX-3FZmJ3Wqv9xkfabEHkHZ9hBgVHGf9Gylw6QJE7okGiA7OvOmdUR45FvIr6GPGOLQRV72m5ESyOC5iT\/s1013\/COVIDWasteJan172025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Wastewater\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiDSzagAzZbZNwCsaDMqyOegl_TqPaLmgavAMxoSlVQvfYQDkNf0PV2LbdrBHavAKGm5g54yAS8V0QEDPBUfoMcM5NpBI6yDcHDttRwX-3FZmJ3Wqv9xkfabEHkHZ9hBgVHGf9Gylw6QJE7okGiA7OvOmdUR45FvIr6GPGOLQRV72m5ESyOC5iT\/s320\/COVIDWasteJan172025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003EThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENationally COVID in wastewater is \"HIGH\" according to the CDC but is now declining.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5435569070773878958\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/5435569070773878958","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5435569070773878958"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5435569070773878958"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/january-19th-covid-update-covid-in.html","title":"January 19th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Decreasing"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh8lmZHbd1VLkLVVvraD1_9meZMJT6rpRqNR6TtiNh7uLTqeWPD8xdDQy5F9bOwSDMyxDytrqoy7uLQd26vIfiPogXmdMYQ5AwHWhKgEkCyRkI94kFDZ5PHxRy239zBgKT2WD0pwvBLssmGLtySmIPWV3gl7xJd4S1OqPPP2NUdsYu8y8h1WhGY\/s72-c\/RatesJan172025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4968198494296673177"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-17T15:31:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-17T15:31:00.228-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003E Since our last weekly publication, our \u003Cb\u003E4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q\/q saar\u003C\/b\u003E. [Jan 17th estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003EFollowing this morning’s data, we boosted our \u003Cb\u003EQ4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)\u003C\/b\u003E and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast by the same amount to +2.6%. [Jan 17th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Atlanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for \u003Cb\u003Ereal GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.7 percent to 3.8 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to real GDP growth from -0.37 percentage points to -0.41 percentage points. [Jan 17th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4968198494296673177\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/4968198494296673177","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4968198494296673177"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4968198494296673177"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/q4-gdp-tracking-21-to-30-range.html","title":"Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6931265479086385890"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-17T12:06:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-17T12:06:03.595-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From housing economist Tom Lawler:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBased on publicly-available local realtor\/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December\u003C\/b\u003E, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this December’s business day count compared to last December’s.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nLocal realtor\/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5.6% from a year earlier.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in November. Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88 million SAAR. This will be the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase following YoY declines every month since July 2021."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6931265479086385890\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/6931265479086385890","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6931265479086385890"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6931265479086385890"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html","title":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-826745533362769825"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-17T09:29:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-17T09:29:10.893-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-starts-increased-to-1499\"\u003EHousing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ETotal housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJU1ZFqylHgHwF4LmLL2ROf_1W47KwbdQMYeV6IaJ0ae2YyGTWnKiOcRQvN4cdBhmWWXWKWAY31Ql1zexsvNWoz1l9XSk9MzYzgyNuDMfXOHhgttvihPg_10SIwRwlwLAGOeg8O_z6GEfDsuU9WMSwgwapnQ24PZXmt4JCcKi0TcvNgByYMU-9\/s948\/Starts20232024Dec.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Starts 2023 vs 2024\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJU1ZFqylHgHwF4LmLL2ROf_1W47KwbdQMYeV6IaJ0ae2YyGTWnKiOcRQvN4cdBhmWWXWKWAY31Ql1zexsvNWoz1l9XSk9MzYzgyNuDMfXOHhgttvihPg_10SIwRwlwLAGOeg8O_z6GEfDsuU9WMSwgwapnQ24PZXmt4JCcKi0TcvNgByYMU-9\/s320\/Starts20232024Dec.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ETotal starts were down 4.4% in December compared to December 2023. The YoY decrease in December total starts was mostly due to a difficult comparison to starts in December 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSingle family starts have been up year-over-year in 13 of the last 18 months, whereas multi-family has been up year-over-year in only 3 of last 19 months. For the year, total starts were down 2.6% compared to 2023.  Single family starts were up 6.6% YoY in 2024, and multi-family were down 18.8% YoY.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/826745533362769825\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/826745533362769825","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/826745533362769825"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/826745533362769825"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/housing-starts-increased-to-1499_17.html","title":"Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJU1ZFqylHgHwF4LmLL2ROf_1W47KwbdQMYeV6IaJ0ae2YyGTWnKiOcRQvN4cdBhmWWXWKWAY31Ql1zexsvNWoz1l9XSk9MzYzgyNuDMfXOHhgttvihPg_10SIwRwlwLAGOeg8O_z6GEfDsuU9WMSwgwapnQ24PZXmt4JCcKi0TcvNgByYMU-9\/s72-c\/Starts20232024Dec.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3541236291566197430"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-17T09:15:00.021-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-17T09:24:55.923-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier from the Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/g17\/Current\/default.htm\"\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December\u003C\/b\u003E after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in November. The indexes for mining and utilities climbed 1.8 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in December. At 103.2 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in December was 0.5 percent above its year-earlier level. \u003Cb\u003ECapacity utilization stepped up to 77.6 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiVDQILLfqkNN7WjquRCpren7BQ-w6Ly-jjqjURJB6dT4ksol8lZjeNH1jyk9y92EhGnAAoSjIQeBx-vuQOQptISJnCf02gQaCSViUGDYZ1EqLVLnvzYRFneJYll-r9Gl4H-MSYnRWvZV0Vn6isjTnbi2zThqBWE0I5jXVKvJIDWzSRjj8zh5Sn\/s1007\/CapUDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Capacity Utilization\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiVDQILLfqkNN7WjquRCpren7BQ-w6Ly-jjqjURJB6dT4ksol8lZjeNH1jyk9y92EhGnAAoSjIQeBx-vuQOQptISJnCf02gQaCSViUGDYZ1EqLVLnvzYRFneJYll-r9Gl4H-MSYnRWvZV0Vn6isjTnbi2zThqBWE0I5jXVKvJIDWzSRjj8zh5Sn\/s320\/CapUDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCapacity utilization at 77.6% is 2.1% below the average from 1972 to 2023.\u0026nbsp; This was above consensus expectations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhKL_LhX-pQyuqAhYUljay64Pm6EtEK4MLwRkJjN2dOnXXRBSWqTHyda27H9R5TyUu7qeRhw7gtP1On0eIrbxE4zEtseDBchOXYqdY6lMS1wAu3XaZzdnk8a_1DA6mblxcgtKxdCRwLkpb2nEzLavYLd82bSnNrQN8z9f-oPfD1jVy7cbW9yDI_\/s1006\/IPDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhKL_LhX-pQyuqAhYUljay64Pm6EtEK4MLwRkJjN2dOnXXRBSWqTHyda27H9R5TyUu7qeRhw7gtP1On0eIrbxE4zEtseDBchOXYqdY6lMS1wAu3XaZzdnk8a_1DA6mblxcgtKxdCRwLkpb2nEzLavYLd82bSnNrQN8z9f-oPfD1jVy7cbW9yDI_\/s320\/IPDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E  \nThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIndustrial production increased to 103.2.  This is above the pre-pandemic level.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIndustrial production was well above consensus expectations.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3541236291566197430\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/3541236291566197430","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3541236291566197430"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3541236291566197430"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/industrial-production-increased-09-in.html","title":"Industrial Production Increased 0.9% in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiVDQILLfqkNN7WjquRCpren7BQ-w6Ly-jjqjURJB6dT4ksol8lZjeNH1jyk9y92EhGnAAoSjIQeBx-vuQOQptISJnCf02gQaCSViUGDYZ1EqLVLnvzYRFneJYll-r9Gl4H-MSYnRWvZV0Vn6isjTnbi2zThqBWE0I5jXVKvJIDWzSRjj8zh5Sn\/s72-c\/CapUDec2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3554075568460995374"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-17T08:30:00.034-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-17T08:38:15.747-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Census Bureau: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst.pdf\"\u003EPermits, Starts and Completions\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nPrivately-owned housing starts in December were at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,499,000\u003C\/b\u003E. This is 15.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,294,000, but is 4.4 percent below the December 2023 rate of 1,568,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,050,000; this is 3.3 percent above\nthe revised November figure of 1,016,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 418,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAn estimated 1,364,100 housing units were started in 2024. This is 3.9 percent below the 2023 figure of \n1,420,000. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EBuilding Permits:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nPrivately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of \n1,483,000. This is 0.7 percent below the revised November rate of 1,493,000 and is 3.1 percent below the December 2023 rate \nof 1,530,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 992,000; this is 1.6 percent above the revised \nNovember figure of 976,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 437,000 in December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAn estimated 1,471,200 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2024. This is 2.6 percent below the 2023 figure of \n1,511,100. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEia9lX-CfBXGBaKS8fgfZHIG2PaHJMjdDxCenTFygZu_VIxHxujcsbXoUqY0MhobJouQXX2_lrGCslRaTgTIG8tMYfcR0FTnphJEcBDWsvonDZha9cE8C6EaYG4LCPDljp4kTke6-z55ykA7jpkGn0Wvg_nvDdRYmvnTotfXm9xhoeAF8xNo4C7\/s1017\/STartsShortDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEia9lX-CfBXGBaKS8fgfZHIG2PaHJMjdDxCenTFygZu_VIxHxujcsbXoUqY0MhobJouQXX2_lrGCslRaTgTIG8tMYfcR0FTnphJEcBDWsvonDZha9cE8C6EaYG4LCPDljp4kTke6-z55ykA7jpkGn0Wvg_nvDdRYmvnTotfXm9xhoeAF8xNo4C7\/s320\/STartsShortDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMulti-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased month-over-month in December. \u0026nbsp; Multi-family starts were down 8.4% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSingle-family starts (red) increased in December and were down 2.6% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgxT_taissrV22s-FVjE1ClK9At-JtRqynTfEvuNslWPKu_jHVARO8PbNh78F7mMvtw-Hu9VeF0sZ35ug0PENK5MXSEYOC195x-s5F_mn8BZNkQJT8yCnBCv46l1Z_i94yyPrZoRclrGeshVY6MoY8yoAmcFVR6_OkLOUAR6tcmVyWFiNgfaqGQ\/s1020\/StartsDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgxT_taissrV22s-FVjE1ClK9At-JtRqynTfEvuNslWPKu_jHVARO8PbNh78F7mMvtw-Hu9VeF0sZ35ug0PENK5MXSEYOC195x-s5F_mn8BZNkQJT8yCnBCv46l1Z_i94yyPrZoRclrGeshVY6MoY8yoAmcFVR6_OkLOUAR6tcmVyWFiNgfaqGQ\/s320\/StartsDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts\u0026nbsp;since 1968. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nTotal housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'll have more later … "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3554075568460995374\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/3554075568460995374","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3554075568460995374"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3554075568460995374"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/housing-starts-increased-to-1499.html","title":"Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEia9lX-CfBXGBaKS8fgfZHIG2PaHJMjdDxCenTFygZu_VIxHxujcsbXoUqY0MhobJouQXX2_lrGCslRaTgTIG8tMYfcR0FTnphJEcBDWsvonDZha9cE8C6EaYG4LCPDljp4kTke6-z55ykA7jpkGn0Wvg_nvDdRYmvnTotfXm9xhoeAF8xNo4C7\/s72-c\/STartsShortDec2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5455924844669151898"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-16T19:41:00.006-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-16T19:41:00.116-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_yNute-pza-4Ttmj5sFnlCYpnpR9IvKq7HAnoajuBkCknyxe1HGr-mXvc-Ecf3QLUmWQvLlyn4H7WRoL8y5Z_0-gUs9BOqSSNFlnMayZYNz1Yhr5UuFoFnASRtNn-TpSjPX-k6edQCRLZY3UeuJVUdiUo1Cfj6_P41eGBMVEOVj3KxUqxVyJp\/s403\/RatesJan162025.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_yNute-pza-4Ttmj5sFnlCYpnpR9IvKq7HAnoajuBkCknyxe1HGr-mXvc-Ecf3QLUmWQvLlyn4H7WRoL8y5Z_0-gUs9BOqSSNFlnMayZYNz1Yhr5UuFoFnASRtNn-TpSjPX-k6edQCRLZY3UeuJVUdiUo1Cfj6_P41eGBMVEOVj3KxUqxVyJp\/s320\/RatesJan162025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts\u003C\/b\u003E for December. The consensus is for 1.315 million SAAR, up from 1.289 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release \u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/b\u003E for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 77.0%."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5455924844669151898\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/5455924844669151898","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5455924844669151898"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5455924844669151898"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/friday-housing-starts-industrial.html","title":"Friday: Housing Starts, Industrial Production"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_yNute-pza-4Ttmj5sFnlCYpnpR9IvKq7HAnoajuBkCknyxe1HGr-mXvc-Ecf3QLUmWQvLlyn4H7WRoL8y5Z_0-gUs9BOqSSNFlnMayZYNz1Yhr5UuFoFnASRtNn-TpSjPX-k6edQCRLZY3UeuJVUdiUo1Cfj6_P41eGBMVEOVj3KxUqxVyJp\/s72-c\/RatesJan162025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3946919153584930073"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-16T14:39:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-16T14:39:08.271-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here is a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=6dzRiRjIcvo\"\u003EYouTube video\u003C\/a\u003E of a discussion with Mike Simonsen.\n\nEnjoy."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3946919153584930073\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/3946919153584930073","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3946919153584930073"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3946919153584930073"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/housing-discussion-with-altos-researchs.html","title":"Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6187602183285518990"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-16T10:19:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-16T10:19:22.517-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAHB: Builder Confidence \"Edges Up\"  in January"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 47, up from 46 last month.  Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom the NAHB: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nahb.org\/news-and-economics\/press-releases\/2025\/01\/builder-confidence-edges-up-even-as-market-risk-concerns-rise\"\u003EBuilder Confidence Edges Up Even as Market Risk Concerns Rise\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EBuilder sentiment edged higher to begin the year on hopes for an improved economic growth and regulatory environment. At the same time, builders expressed concerns over how building material tariffs and costs and a larger government deficit would put upward pressure on inflation and mortgage rates.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EBuilder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 47 in January\u003C\/b\u003E, up one point from December, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Builders are facing continued challenges for housing demand in the near-term, with mortgage rates up from near 6.1% in late September to above 6.9% today,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “Land is expensive and financing for private builders remains costly. However, there is hope that policymakers are taking the impact of regulatory hurdles seriously and will make improvements in 2025.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“NAHB is forecasting a slight gain for single-family housing starts in 2025, as the market faces offsetting upside and downside risks from an improving regulatory outlook and ongoing elevated interest rates,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “And while ongoing, but slower easing from the Federal Reserve should help financing for private builders currently squeezed out of some local markets, builders report cancellations are climbing as a direct result of mortgage rates rising back up near 7%.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe latest HMI survey also revealed that 30% of builders cut home prices in January. This share has been stable between 30% and 33% since last July. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in January, the same rate as in December. The use of sales incentives was 61% in January. This share has remained between 60% and 64% since last June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 51 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 33. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell six points to 60 in part due to the elevated interest rate environment. While this serves as a cautionary note, the future sales component is still the highest of the three sub-indices and well above the breakeven level of 50.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nLooking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased five points to 60, the Midwest moved one point higher to 47, the South posted a one-point gain to 46 and the West fell one point to 40.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003E\nemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg06zPa7VzyYabd7I-OFFmcKg9MNZ9tH9wdJxSIGC0-2FOfXlRgXFRPuLYtOjcZFhokO51L2ZmfAyCieWGRZu16IhveC6Fti1rAGj8Of41ub9FgHIAHsa6tAEjyNcx9go7THXFd9BA15MXuBtzRXMtjDgnT75G_hR01mF_0Vs_33U-6e9KIJCsK\/s1074\/NAHBJan2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"NAHB HMI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg06zPa7VzyYabd7I-OFFmcKg9MNZ9tH9wdJxSIGC0-2FOfXlRgXFRPuLYtOjcZFhokO51L2ZmfAyCieWGRZu16IhveC6Fti1rAGj8Of41ub9FgHIAHsa6tAEjyNcx9go7THXFd9BA15MXuBtzRXMtjDgnT75G_hR01mF_0Vs_33U-6e9KIJCsK\/s320\/NAHBJan2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: left; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was above the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6187602183285518990\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/6187602183285518990","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6187602183285518990"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6187602183285518990"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/nahb-builder-confidence-edges-up-in.html","title":"NAHB: Builder Confidence \"Edges Up\"  in January"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg06zPa7VzyYabd7I-OFFmcKg9MNZ9tH9wdJxSIGC0-2FOfXlRgXFRPuLYtOjcZFhokO51L2ZmfAyCieWGRZu16IhveC6Fti1rAGj8Of41ub9FgHIAHsa6tAEjyNcx9go7THXFd9BA15MXuBtzRXMtjDgnT75G_hR01mF_0Vs_33U-6e9KIJCsK\/s72-c\/NAHBJan2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3940256732504214757"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-16T10:12:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-16T10:12:09.975-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Retail Sales Increased 0.4% in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from December 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom the Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/retail\/sales.html\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EAdvance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $729.2 billion, \u003Cb\u003Ean increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month\u003C\/b\u003E, and up 3.9 percent from December 2023. ... The October 2024 to November 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent to up 0.8 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhl6tc_vsauTyWyXDQEvcCFgBBfUNL5Z_hxMAYpr02ccGGwmI2_gNy4ErQJG11NZSb8Sd-MfZOoHPLxhAlJmjQNt-9Q4yLdpepZEDqRKXGMMnaDaZcZwJVVJV4-tATkSbnMxb-wiJEZb5WP83ENTu2yo2oEMN4UwzX2vPMwowQdLgghkzuXLByT\/s1042\/RetailDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhl6tc_vsauTyWyXDQEvcCFgBBfUNL5Z_hxMAYpr02ccGGwmI2_gNy4ErQJG11NZSb8Sd-MfZOoHPLxhAlJmjQNt-9Q4yLdpepZEDqRKXGMMnaDaZcZwJVVJV4-tATkSbnMxb-wiJEZb5WP83ENTu2yo2oEMN4UwzX2vPMwowQdLgghkzuXLByT\/s320\/RetailDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nRetail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.4% in December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe\u0026nbsp;second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nRetail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.1% on a YoY basis.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg1l1R_NszeWBCag_nbeghmj3IZCXlScY8n6UpHKziRQ5AxM-TXCzCuE3EBaTmuC4y5EcRSdIPwL-sPg_XYyIAyBWE_IFWD6b_7Jmn_kyDHEUoAneHUll9bhcZb6TSaEpnlnc8UQ2D-vfIylbePhyphenhyphen1QcZoIj3ko0DFe8NxXC8scQ0cngIkcvz5e\/s992\/RetailYoYDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change in Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg1l1R_NszeWBCag_nbeghmj3IZCXlScY8n6UpHKziRQ5AxM-TXCzCuE3EBaTmuC4y5EcRSdIPwL-sPg_XYyIAyBWE_IFWD6b_7Jmn_kyDHEUoAneHUll9bhcZb6TSaEpnlnc8UQ2D-vfIylbePhyphenhyphen1QcZoIj3ko0DFe8NxXC8scQ0cngIkcvz5e\/s320\/RetailYoYDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \nThe change in sales in December were slightly below expectations, however sales in October and November were revised up."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3940256732504214757\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/3940256732504214757","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3940256732504214757"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3940256732504214757"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/retail-sales-increased-04-in-december.html","title":"Retail Sales Increased 0.4% in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhl6tc_vsauTyWyXDQEvcCFgBBfUNL5Z_hxMAYpr02ccGGwmI2_gNy4ErQJG11NZSb8Sd-MfZOoHPLxhAlJmjQNt-9Q4yLdpepZEDqRKXGMMnaDaZcZwJVVJV4-tATkSbnMxb-wiJEZb5WP83ENTu2yo2oEMN4UwzX2vPMwowQdLgghkzuXLByT\/s72-c\/RetailDec2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4491454727967139472"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-16T10:02:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-16T10:02:41.481-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nIn the week ending January 11, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000\u003C\/b\u003E, an increase of \n14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 201,000 to \n203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The \nprevious week's average was revised up by 500 from 213,000 to 213,500.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhrJ7yDMT62Wh__fGgz795gAoMOD4SP_8h5FPU1k0zCl_HsejUHP2-AxMvdF_UL2UvYYIcvLhlymGrQKoV6Fe1C11hzMcAqhsaYGtshj9pHNoze5yu3HNwhHy-0DOCG1q-V_bbCf9owSHjEUj1qkkkxpOyvMTgMczN94Ukc1pVGBZqGD47i59Yl\/s1077\/WeeklyClaimsJan162025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhrJ7yDMT62Wh__fGgz795gAoMOD4SP_8h5FPU1k0zCl_HsejUHP2-AxMvdF_UL2UvYYIcvLhlymGrQKoV6Fe1C11hzMcAqhsaYGtshj9pHNoze5yu3HNwhHy-0DOCG1q-V_bbCf9owSHjEUj1qkkkxpOyvMTgMczN94Ukc1pVGBZqGD47i59Yl\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsJan162025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 213,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWeekly claims were close to the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4491454727967139472\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/4491454727967139472","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4491454727967139472"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4491454727967139472"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_16.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhrJ7yDMT62Wh__fGgz795gAoMOD4SP_8h5FPU1k0zCl_HsejUHP2-AxMvdF_UL2UvYYIcvLhlymGrQKoV6Fe1C11hzMcAqhsaYGtshj9pHNoze5yu3HNwhHy-0DOCG1q-V_bbCf9owSHjEUj1qkkkxpOyvMTgMczN94Ukc1pVGBZqGD47i59Yl\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsJan162025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2922425634802441120"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-15T20:13:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-15T20:13:00.117-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjqz0oXnukCoKDc50pK8PO2t_0FIi4POee72eIQefoGF-ou_RplEx7Gszcew7rgrmgME4-aCsQIX-Cryrc6L7i15B4fIBNsyWUw8sF2QuA70QR-xHtWXlw2iNAGXXoirvgezEDAG8pn2ROBeRfk14onF0-sxBREozOHGqh8XMMrCejIksV8rAdl\/s308\/RatesJan152025.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjqz0oXnukCoKDc50pK8PO2t_0FIi4POee72eIQefoGF-ou_RplEx7Gszcew7rgrmgME4-aCsQIX-Cryrc6L7i15B4fIBNsyWUw8sF2QuA70QR-xHtWXlw2iNAGXXoirvgezEDAG8pn2ROBeRfk14onF0-sxBREozOHGqh8XMMrCejIksV8rAdl\/s320\/RatesJan152025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003ERetail sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December is scheduled to be released. \u0026nbsp;The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in retail sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM, the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for January.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM, The January \u003Cb\u003ENAHB homebuilder survey\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for a reading of 45, down from 46 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2922425634802441120\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/2922425634802441120","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2922425634802441120"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2922425634802441120"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/thursday-retail-sales-unemployment.html","title":"Thursday: Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Homebuider Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjqz0oXnukCoKDc50pK8PO2t_0FIi4POee72eIQefoGF-ou_RplEx7Gszcew7rgrmgME4-aCsQIX-Cryrc6L7i15B4fIBNsyWUw8sF2QuA70QR-xHtWXlw2iNAGXXoirvgezEDAG8pn2ROBeRfk14onF0-sxBREozOHGqh8XMMrCejIksV8rAdl\/s72-c\/RatesJan152025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-923048310837533303"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-15T14:38:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-15T14:38:44.569-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fed's Beige Book: \"Economic activity increased slightly to moderately\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/beigebook202501-summary.htm\"\u003EFed's Beige Book\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EEconomic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December\u003C\/b\u003E. Consumer spending moved up moderately, with most Districts reporting strong holiday sales that exceeded expectations. Vehicle sales grew modestly. Construction activity decreased overall, with several Districts indicating that high costs for materials and financing were weighing on growth. Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Residential real estate activity was unchanged on balance, as high mortgage rates continued to hold back demand. Commercial real estate sales edged up. The nonfinancial services sector grew slightly overall, with Districts highlighting growth in leisure and hospitality and transportation, notably air travel. Truck freight volumes, however, were down. Financial service providers reported modest growth in lending and little change in asset quality overall, though lenders and community organizations voiced concerns about delinquencies among small businesses and lower-income households. Nonprofit social service agencies faced high demand amidst uncertainty about future funding levels. Agricultural conditions remained weak overall, with generally lower farm incomes and weather-related struggles in some areas. The spread of avian flu reduced egg supplies and pushed up prices. Energy activity was mixed. More contacts were optimistic about the outlook for 2025 than were pessimistic about it, though contacts in several Districts expressed concerns that changes in immigration and tariff policy could negatively affect the economy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003ELabor Markets\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EEmployment ticked up on balance, with six Districts reporting a slight increase and six reporting no change.\u003C\/b\u003E Contacts in several service industries, notably healthcare, continued to see job growth. Construction employment increased slightly, while manufacturing employment was flat. Contacts across multiple sectors noted difficulty finding skilled workers, and reports of layoffs remained rare. However, contacts in some Districts expressed greater uncertainty about their future staffing needs. Wage growth picked up to a moderate pace in most Districts, though there were some reports that wage pressures had eased.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EPrices\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EPrices increased modestly overall, with growth rates ranging from flat to moderate\u003C\/b\u003E. Contacts in most Districts reported modest increases in selling prices, though there were instances of flat or decreasing prices as well, particularly in the retail and manufacturing sectors. Input costs also rose, with contacts highlighting higher insurance prices, particularly for health insurance. However, as with selling prices, there were several mentions of flat or lower input costs, particularly for fuel. Contacts expected prices to continue to rise in 2025, with some noting the potential for higher tariffs to contribute to price increases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/923048310837533303\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/923048310837533303","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/923048310837533303"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/923048310837533303"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/feds-beige-book-economic-activity.html","title":"Fed's Beige Book: \"Economic activity increased slightly to moderately\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5458828455041075126"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-15T12:42:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-15T12:43:00.396-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-886\"\u003EPart 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EYesterday, in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-bc4\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025\u003C\/a\u003E I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjePEOil_3muRrtPaC59TASzd7yk0zZjqU3bw4iTx3KVmkReZhNFtyY3rckOhaP0QRAhPDDG46k-NrrhyphenhyphenErXQlWOdZRVBGKQyILhJAwVkIqCVhxCIX0CB852JgnJZAjO68rSbnr2qeH1ILxmACdayLXAGUR2BV-bw-S3vDtbGDRKAtI71rIEccn\/s1024\/CSYoYOct2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjePEOil_3muRrtPaC59TASzd7yk0zZjqU3bw4iTx3KVmkReZhNFtyY3rckOhaP0QRAhPDDG46k-NrrhyphenhyphenErXQlWOdZRVBGKQyILhJAwVkIqCVhxCIX0CB852JgnJZAjO68rSbnr2qeH1ILxmACdayLXAGUR2BV-bw-S3vDtbGDRKAtI71rIEccn\/s320\/CSYoYOct2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-59e\"\u003ECase-Shiller National Index\u003C\/a\u003E increased 3.6% year-over-year (YoY) in October and will be about the same YoY - or slightly higher - in the November report (based on other data).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOther measures of house prices suggest prices will be up about the same - or maybe a little higher - YoY in the November Case-Shiller index as in the October report.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5458828455041075126\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/5458828455041075126","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5458828455041075126"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5458828455041075126"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/part-2-current-state-of-housing-market.html","title":"Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjePEOil_3muRrtPaC59TASzd7yk0zZjqU3bw4iTx3KVmkReZhNFtyY3rckOhaP0QRAhPDDG46k-NrrhyphenhyphenErXQlWOdZRVBGKQyILhJAwVkIqCVhxCIX0CB852JgnJZAjO68rSbnr2qeH1ILxmACdayLXAGUR2BV-bw-S3vDtbGDRKAtI71rIEccn\/s72-c\/CSYoYOct2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3551123058326101373"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-15T11:11:00.024-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-15T11:15:19.763-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThe Cleveland Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/en\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/median-cpi.aspx\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. \"The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjU0MS5GmBjStgHb5s9AwnvATFuAJowi6p00bGYbwyztaDI4knG0fFuF93IaUXtXwy8DS01wtnp_0Z_HpMzk_6H4jX1NfAGjpX-smirPheAReGeMfKTUV3SkAaDMKTOdoHWZg1SiWu3qGh1aR_nwnDLUiDN4pSb5Di0d3OVhy_P_KGbdeuER_PI\/s1069\/InflationDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Inflation Measures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjU0MS5GmBjStgHb5s9AwnvATFuAJowi6p00bGYbwyztaDI4knG0fFuF93IaUXtXwy8DS01wtnp_0Z_HpMzk_6H4jX1NfAGjpX-smirPheAReGeMfKTUV3SkAaDMKTOdoHWZg1SiWu3qGh1aR_nwnDLUiDN4pSb5Di0d3OVhy_P_KGbdeuER_PI\/s320\/InflationDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.8% (down from 3.9% YoY in November), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down slightly from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.2% (down from 3.3%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECore PCE is for November was up 2.8% YoY, up slightly from 2.8% in October.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3551123058326101373\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/3551123058326101373","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3551123058326101373"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3551123058326101373"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03.html","title":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjU0MS5GmBjStgHb5s9AwnvATFuAJowi6p00bGYbwyztaDI4knG0fFuF93IaUXtXwy8DS01wtnp_0Z_HpMzk_6H4jX1NfAGjpX-smirPheAReGeMfKTUV3SkAaDMKTOdoHWZg1SiWu3qGh1aR_nwnDLUiDN4pSb5Di0d3OVhy_P_KGbdeuER_PI\/s72-c\/InflationDec2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8551880309161400377"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-15T08:48:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-15T08:48:47.163-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here are a few measures of inflation:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 4.0% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhysC4ZUglQAH1bio-t4fjNUSW7G6LPsvy5gk7Vc9zLXSF1hfdW1Am8mdLRqc1MR6wV4301lUxz0jBTeFoWzj1sRt6F8UQPnYAVkKnVz7lsMFgSbKFZsYF62adOodtXX4klVmWtGUUYIwnoSDMcxBHYlAKBdpid1TFrhvP_mijyByT4pfdhwgH6\/s891\/ServicesLessShelterDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Services ex-Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhysC4ZUglQAH1bio-t4fjNUSW7G6LPsvy5gk7Vc9zLXSF1hfdW1Am8mdLRqc1MR6wV4301lUxz0jBTeFoWzj1sRt6F8UQPnYAVkKnVz7lsMFgSbKFZsYF62adOodtXX4klVmWtGUUYIwnoSDMcxBHYlAKBdpid1TFrhvP_mijyByT4pfdhwgH6\/s320\/ServicesLessShelterDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through December 2024.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EServices were up 4.4% YoY as of December 2024, down from 4.5% YoY in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nServices less rent of shelter was up 4.0% YoY in December, down from 4.1% YoY in November\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj9B2oBNK4CspfhfL07UvtXmLbv2IJu8ra4zADip_3UCelCqLBytp_79QuNpWYYS6gBrQAzZ0n7dhGGwhGmFc9Rq6sAp1hizq-ubxaO2xIxVqUOqe5uAwrAyF0DPX7LqyAzMHL_NkHiS5sJZtADsfUjOYPOJ1ywJXY1M3nbZL7EUDKyBze1ff20\/s892\/DurablesDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Goods CPI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj9B2oBNK4CspfhfL07UvtXmLbv2IJu8ra4zADip_3UCelCqLBytp_79QuNpWYYS6gBrQAzZ0n7dhGGwhGmFc9Rq6sAp1hizq-ubxaO2xIxVqUOqe5uAwrAyF0DPX7LqyAzMHL_NkHiS5sJZtADsfUjOYPOJ1ywJXY1M3nbZL7EUDKyBze1ff20\/s320\/DurablesDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDurables were at -1.9% YoY as of December 2024, up from -2.0% YoY in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCommodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.5% YoY in December, up from -0.7% YoY in November.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj1Fghi0MSRqx_VXYBh-vQhu3KqjaMckbv71Fpth_Z8LsYruq3PIqqDAKzC3dv_P3iLM5RUP9p46gNwTrHqdjwncsJjzQO-3WGi4urwRxfa-reZ1wAq8MHKmqbSD08KddCV0YNpiLnx79-0o8ola_F-BCjp_LoAgdzMTf_B0JqrBhUd0yCkoaub\/s1111\/ShelterDec2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj1Fghi0MSRqx_VXYBh-vQhu3KqjaMckbv71Fpth_Z8LsYruq3PIqqDAKzC3dv_P3iLM5RUP9p46gNwTrHqdjwncsJjzQO-3WGi4urwRxfa-reZ1wAq8MHKmqbSD08KddCV0YNpiLnx79-0o8ola_F-BCjp_LoAgdzMTf_B0JqrBhUd0yCkoaub\/s320\/ShelterDec2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through December) and housing from the PCE report (through November)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nShelter was up 4.6% year-over-year in December\u003C\/b\u003E, down from 4.8% in November.  Housing (PCE) was up 4.8% YoY in November, down from 5.0% in October.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is still catching up with private new lease data.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ECore CPI ex-shelter was up 2.1% YoY in December.\u003C\/b\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8551880309161400377\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/8551880309161400377","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8551880309161400377"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8551880309161400377"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html","title":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhysC4ZUglQAH1bio-t4fjNUSW7G6LPsvy5gk7Vc9zLXSF1hfdW1Am8mdLRqc1MR6wV4301lUxz0jBTeFoWzj1sRt6F8UQPnYAVkKnVz7lsMFgSbKFZsYF62adOodtXX4klVmWtGUUYIwnoSDMcxBHYlAKBdpid1TFrhvP_mijyByT4pfdhwgH6\/s72-c\/ServicesLessShelterDec2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1117652228858911551"},"published":{"$t":"2025-01-15T08:30:00.014-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-01-15T08:32:11.758-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\"\u003EFrom the BLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis\nin December\u003C\/b\u003E, after rising 0.3 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the\nlast 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe index for energy rose 2.6 percent in December, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items\nincrease. The gasoline index increased 4.4 percent over the month. The index for food also increased in December,\nrising 0.3 percent as both the index for food at home and the index for food away from home increased 0.3\npercent each.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in December\u003C\/b\u003E, after increasing 0.3 percent in each\nof the previous 4 months. Indexes that increased in December include shelter, airline fares, used cars and trucks,\nnew vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care. The indexes for personal care, communication, and\nalcoholic beverages were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe all items index rose\u003Cb\u003E 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending December, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12\nmonths ending November. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months\u003C\/b\u003E. The\nenergy index decreased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending December. The food index increased 2.5 percent over\nthe last year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe change in CPI was close to expectations.  I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1117652228858911551\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment\/fullpage\/post\/10004977\/1117652228858911551","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1117652228858911551"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1117652228858911551"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/01\/bls-cpi-increased-04-in-december-core.html","title":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in December; Core CPI increased 0.2%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});