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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"33276"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8813817880395935106"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-16T14:49:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-16T14:49:05.509-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real GDP Annual and Quarterly"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The following graph shows real GDP quarterly (blue, annualized), and the year-over-year change in GDP (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVGCErtp8NP6jmRl5CHup1W9_6qV0kefeH5es0uys7ZCvoG4UU6qKjl49lhN2VygrzzaqXOV1cwiomeDRaDCo3GqXKUpCluR-YKYxJL0j1l13jQF8WdMYMU_jwM54qdN1HXcQfDYpqxRTQV_aO2OB2Q4HH9e_4qmoadiW1wuQ9Bhkosd9Q9Nwl\/s1033\/RealGDPQAnnualQ22024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Real GDP annual and quarterly\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVGCErtp8NP6jmRl5CHup1W9_6qV0kefeH5es0uys7ZCvoG4UU6qKjl49lhN2VygrzzaqXOV1cwiomeDRaDCo3GqXKUpCluR-YKYxJL0j1l13jQF8WdMYMU_jwM54qdN1HXcQfDYpqxRTQV_aO2OB2Q4HH9e_4qmoadiW1wuQ9Bhkosd9Q9Nwl\/s320\/RealGDPQAnnualQ22024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe pandemic slump and subsequent economic recovery are cutoff and marked.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn general, this is the rate of growth that we should expect, see: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/demographics-and-gdp-2-is-new-4.html\"\u003EDemographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8813817880395935106\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8813817880395935106","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8813817880395935106"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8813817880395935106"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/real-gdp-annual-and-quarterly.html","title":"Real GDP Annual and Quarterly"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVGCErtp8NP6jmRl5CHup1W9_6qV0kefeH5es0uys7ZCvoG4UU6qKjl49lhN2VygrzzaqXOV1cwiomeDRaDCo3GqXKUpCluR-YKYxJL0j1l13jQF8WdMYMU_jwM54qdN1HXcQfDYpqxRTQV_aO2OB2Q4HH9e_4qmoadiW1wuQ9Bhkosd9Q9Nwl\/s72-c\/RealGDPQAnnualQ22024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5125085915374733361"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-16T11:32:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-16T11:32:32.032-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I've received a number of requests lately to post this again, so here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.\u0026nbsp; We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nImportant: There are many differences between these periods.  Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now. \u0026nbsp;But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s).  Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Trump only served one term.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble and left during the bursting of the housing bubble.  Mr. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession.  There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThere was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (light purple) term, and Mr. Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;There was a pandemic related recession in 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFirst, here is a table for private sector jobs.  The previous top two private sector terms were both under President Clinton.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 280px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003ETerm\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EPrivate Sector\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nJobs Added (000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EBiden\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E14,556\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EClinton 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E10,876\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EClinton 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E10,094\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EObama 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E9,926\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EReagan 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E9,351\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003ECarter\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E9,039\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EReagan 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E5,363\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EObama 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E1,907\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGHW Bush\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E1,507\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGW Bush 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E443\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGW Bush 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E-820\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ETrump\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E-2,192\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"2\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003EAfter 44 months.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEireVHg_LTHmgDx8QBgUsIuvDuPtf5EKjOgub9iqW7h3s1jfTvtQR4ejF-RICkoHlVFQb_Ho0ibiJoFavCq_nKvwt57h0GV_KYfMH_-GVo9G8ckZ5QWTavlfK90p9mSoubpe07X6nKh7IbAUK3xgnJymqv5zRC3Pwt5xscR0SUVnIMM3bcdCpi0\/s976\/PrivateSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Private Sector Payrolls\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEireVHg_LTHmgDx8QBgUsIuvDuPtf5EKjOgub9iqW7h3s1jfTvtQR4ejF-RICkoHlVFQb_Ho0ibiJoFavCq_nKvwt57h0GV_KYfMH_-GVo9G8ckZ5QWTavlfK90p9mSoubpe07X6nKh7IbAUK3xgnJymqv5zRC3Pwt5xscR0SUVnIMM3bcdCpi0\/s320\/PrivateSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph is for private employment only.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003EPrivate sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20,970,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 377,000 under President G.W. Bush, and gained 11,833,000 under President Obama (dark dashed blue).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;During Trump's term (Orange), the economy lost 2,135,000 private sector jobs.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn the first 44 months of President Biden's term (Blue), the economy has added 14,556,000 private sector jobs, with the initial growth as the economy recovered from the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E   \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhK07bZDdKwclV-de-mc89CFklKpZkKlrl6DIBKuoIBG1DvpVZ2YuxYmIaTEJs1wHbOv8pda0FLEQbi61dcXvhwvxnauzvM1F_QNuwEY1XcM0WOzgtKHT5NTiHpoI0F-Ec-86iVZV9gKGaUH03ev3_jw2FbdAn0GyxadSqGQCnIabGnwdEUQSIm\/s977\/PublicSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Public Sector Payrolls\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhK07bZDdKwclV-de-mc89CFklKpZkKlrl6DIBKuoIBG1DvpVZ2YuxYmIaTEJs1wHbOv8pda0FLEQbi61dcXvhwvxnauzvM1F_QNuwEY1XcM0WOzgtKHT5NTiHpoI0F-Ec-86iVZV9gKGaUH03ev3_jw2FbdAn0GyxadSqGQCnIabGnwdEUQSIm\/s320\/PublicSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment.\u0026nbsp; Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).\u0026nbsp; However,\u0026nbsp;the public sector declined significantly while Mr. Obama was in office (down 263,000 jobs).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;During Trump's term, the economy lost 528,000 public sector jobs.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn the first 44 months of President Biden's term, the economy has added 1,633,000 public sector jobs (about \u003Cb\u003E93% of public job growth has been for state and local governments\u003C\/b\u003E, and about 55% for education).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAnd a table for public sector jobs.  Public sector jobs increased have increased the most during Biden's term, ahead of the number during Reagan's 2nd term.\u0026nbsp; Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama's first term.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 280px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003ETerm\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EPublic Sector\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nJobs Added (000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EBiden\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E1,633\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EReagan 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E1,438\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003ECarter\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E1,304\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EClinton 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E1,242\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGHW Bush\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E1,127\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGW Bush 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E900\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGW Bush 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E844\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EClinton 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E692\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EObama 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E447\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EReagan 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E-24\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ETrump\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E-528\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EObama 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E-710\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"2\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003EAfter 44 months.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5125085915374733361\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5125085915374733361","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5125085915374733361"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5125085915374733361"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/by-request-public-and-private-sector.html","title":"By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEireVHg_LTHmgDx8QBgUsIuvDuPtf5EKjOgub9iqW7h3s1jfTvtQR4ejF-RICkoHlVFQb_Ho0ibiJoFavCq_nKvwt57h0GV_KYfMH_-GVo9G8ckZ5QWTavlfK90p9mSoubpe07X6nKh7IbAUK3xgnJymqv5zRC3Pwt5xscR0SUVnIMM3bcdCpi0\/s72-c\/PrivateSept2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2366707344574848229"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-16T07:00:00.025-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-16T07:00:00.300-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 17.0 percent from one \nweek earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications \nSurvey for the week ending October 11, 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.0 percent \non a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 17 \npercent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 26 percent from the previous \nweek and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase \nIndex decreased 7 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent \ncompared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E7 percent higher than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n“Mortgage rates moved higher for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing to \n6.52 percent, its highest level since August,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief \nEconomist. “The recent uptick in rates has put a damper on applications. Refinance applications fell 26 \npercent to their lowest level since August, with comparable drops in both conventional and government \nrefinances. This pushed the refinance share of applications back below 50 percent for the first time in \nover a month. Furthermore, purchase applications also decreased but notably remain 7 percent higher \nthan a year ago.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E \nAdded Kan, “Demand is holding up to an extent for prospective first-time buyers. FHA purchase \napplications were little changed despite the increase in rates, as some first-time homebuyers remain in \nthe market because of improving housing inventory conditions.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances \n($766,550 or less) increased to 6.52 percent from 6.36 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.62 \n(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgfhnZ-m6s1WpRAdzZGNefPKqcUBKuvKYoiJXGh-obwE5aDtqZ8j7pdaAwEM7cZgR3J9AB0uf5ldHbSXv4m_9dr5inddNodEgwWBW-rwjeewewHxbRqJxXWzLRY7S2nkX6Wq8SbaOZFsix29uA6vWVLv_DthheyLlRQPRQzmuzrJPokzL9vAAYS\/s1085\/MBAOct162024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgfhnZ-m6s1WpRAdzZGNefPKqcUBKuvKYoiJXGh-obwE5aDtqZ8j7pdaAwEM7cZgR3J9AB0uf5ldHbSXv4m_9dr5inddNodEgwWBW-rwjeewewHxbRqJxXWzLRY7S2nkX6Wq8SbaOZFsix29uA6vWVLv_DthheyLlRQPRQzmuzrJPokzL9vAAYS\/s320\/MBAOct162024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, \u003Cb\u003Epurchase activity is up 7% year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPurchase application activity is up about 10% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 8% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg_MwSbELD6_VH65az08QXswhMvm-NRIH5deDJd0TqODLCZBpf199jIPIsSG9GFDLw7TBTddytD6_TaY51yIsEkwWmMIPbUC4VwCIT8q2-4V64GFcKnJ92plz0btx_-ZYINH36DH4YiqavCso_dUleZ41_hhF2KgieQtCehS4EuhmmsU3CWahCQ\/s1090\/MBARefiOct162024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg_MwSbELD6_VH65az08QXswhMvm-NRIH5deDJd0TqODLCZBpf199jIPIsSG9GFDLw7TBTddytD6_TaY51yIsEkwWmMIPbUC4VwCIT8q2-4V64GFcKnJ92plz0btx_-ZYINH36DH4YiqavCso_dUleZ41_hhF2KgieQtCehS4EuhmmsU3CWahCQ\/s320\/MBARefiOct162024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly as mortgage rates declined last month but decreased over the last three weeks as rates increased.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2366707344574848229\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2366707344574848229","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2366707344574848229"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2366707344574848229"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/mba-mortgage-applications-decreased-in_0438245533.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgfhnZ-m6s1WpRAdzZGNefPKqcUBKuvKYoiJXGh-obwE5aDtqZ8j7pdaAwEM7cZgR3J9AB0uf5ldHbSXv4m_9dr5inddNodEgwWBW-rwjeewewHxbRqJxXWzLRY7S2nkX6Wq8SbaOZFsix29uA6vWVLv_DthheyLlRQPRQzmuzrJPokzL9vAAYS\/s72-c\/MBAOct162024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1546772326615238184"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-15T19:54:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-15T19:54:00.119-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Mortgage Applications"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjE22v_vPhzRTXi5h2pP9Ft1SXEl2sZevaoDCTUWiYpUXdqWCslRDiOEjnw9wZC_UQPjIj9NpcTEEP4Oa_z69wIbCzFcQOGvfk1oBwXD7siebAfQSaSh3RepQ11NcTi33uR2qZA1lhf_6i_MkvWcy8lYdntQcOHnk7l5bxNCkgK7RUHKk8uy0Xi\/s402\/RatesOct152024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjE22v_vPhzRTXi5h2pP9Ft1SXEl2sZevaoDCTUWiYpUXdqWCslRDiOEjnw9wZC_UQPjIj9NpcTEEP4Oa_z69wIbCzFcQOGvfk1oBwXD7siebAfQSaSh3RepQ11NcTi33uR2qZA1lhf_6i_MkvWcy8lYdntQcOHnk7l5bxNCkgK7RUHKk8uy0Xi\/s320\/RatesOct152024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1546772326615238184\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1546772326615238184","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1546772326615238184"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1546772326615238184"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/wednesday-mortgage-applications.html","title":"Wednesday: Mortgage Applications"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjE22v_vPhzRTXi5h2pP9Ft1SXEl2sZevaoDCTUWiYpUXdqWCslRDiOEjnw9wZC_UQPjIj9NpcTEEP4Oa_z69wIbCzFcQOGvfk1oBwXD7siebAfQSaSh3RepQ11NcTi33uR2qZA1lhf_6i_MkvWcy8lYdntQcOHnk7l5bxNCkgK7RUHKk8uy0Xi\/s72-c\/RatesOct152024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1754044839528282786"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-15T12:13:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-15T12:13:33.074-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-941\"\u003EPart 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EOn Friday, in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-383\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024\u003C\/a\u003E I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\n“If you do not know where you come from, then you don't know where you are, and if you don't know where you are, then you don't know where you're going. And if you don't know where you're going, you're probably going wrong.”\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Terry_Pratchett\"\u003ETerry Pratchett\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThese “Current State” summaries show us where we came from, where we are, and hopefully give us clues as to where we are going!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgersDZoE3FJH8zNVgg6olWv3gHexW9PJe55hQkdqGilhkVvGqSrRiKWf7pDRRaeJgbAKFTIgo77dzAmUbxVLAylIBtP6IP5LAql7OuVr48tFhuBeGykgphfof5vNqMqQRptssKhtVD2k5jzJ-Rg3M49GfRvGeJRrUZ8A_yYe5UqErN0Ycu_Uxj\/s1016\/CSYoYJuly2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller YoY Change\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgersDZoE3FJH8zNVgg6olWv3gHexW9PJe55hQkdqGilhkVvGqSrRiKWf7pDRRaeJgbAKFTIgo77dzAmUbxVLAylIBtP6IP5LAql7OuVr48tFhuBeGykgphfof5vNqMqQRptssKhtVD2k5jzJ-Rg3M49GfRvGeJRrUZ8A_yYe5UqErN0Ycu_Uxj\/s320\/CSYoYJuly2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-4e7\"\u003ECase-Shiller National Index\u003C\/a\u003E increased 5.0% year-over-year in July and will likely slow further in the August report (based on other data). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor the second consecutive month, the MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.18% (a 2.2% annual rate), This was the eighteenth consecutive MoM increase, but this tied the previous as the smallest MoM increase in the last 18 months.\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1754044839528282786\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1754044839528282786","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1754044839528282786"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1754044839528282786"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/part-2-current-state-of-housing-market.html","title":"Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgersDZoE3FJH8zNVgg6olWv3gHexW9PJe55hQkdqGilhkVvGqSrRiKWf7pDRRaeJgbAKFTIgo77dzAmUbxVLAylIBtP6IP5LAql7OuVr48tFhuBeGykgphfof5vNqMqQRptssKhtVD2k5jzJ-Rg3M49GfRvGeJRrUZ8A_yYe5UqErN0Ycu_Uxj\/s72-c\/CSYoYJuly2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2990570372251231563"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-15T08:49:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-15T08:49:40.926-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Lawler: Changes in Various Interest Rates Since the FOMC Cut Its Target Fed Funds Rate by 50 Basis Points"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-changes-in-various-interest\"\u003ELawler: Changes in Various Interest Rates Since the FOMC Cut Its Target Fed Funds Rate by 50 Basis Points\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EFrom housing economist Tom Lawler: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBelow is a table showing changes in various interest rates from the day before the FOMC’s 50 basis point cut in its Fed Funds rate target and last Friday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9UJs3J01VH3KBx_UzZxenATGhtac9TgnkcL9tbjnKPjTiC9mw379zMLFq0cDRfDiIbpeHtnOlZFK7CB4bgLekHsutLyZX5JF4iOjbi3UiIFE02m-4ck7hGLKamBy0LlajcGJgLkZcbkrEdv-IbG5m234O1v4eWUo6EngkOsoiV4EmTqCJcn07\/s1141\/LawlerRatesOct142024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Interest Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9UJs3J01VH3KBx_UzZxenATGhtac9TgnkcL9tbjnKPjTiC9mw379zMLFq0cDRfDiIbpeHtnOlZFK7CB4bgLekHsutLyZX5JF4iOjbi3UiIFE02m-4ck7hGLKamBy0LlajcGJgLkZcbkrEdv-IbG5m234O1v4eWUo6EngkOsoiV4EmTqCJcn07\/s320\/LawlerRatesOct142024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ECR Notes: After the Fed rate cut, the longer-term rates increased (including mortgage rates).  The yield curve has reverted ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2990570372251231563\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2990570372251231563","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2990570372251231563"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2990570372251231563"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/lawler-changes-in-various-interest.html","title":"Lawler: Changes in Various Interest Rates Since the FOMC Cut Its Target Fed Funds Rate by 50 Basis Points"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9UJs3J01VH3KBx_UzZxenATGhtac9TgnkcL9tbjnKPjTiC9mw379zMLFq0cDRfDiIbpeHtnOlZFK7CB4bgLekHsutLyZX5JF4iOjbi3UiIFE02m-4ck7hGLKamBy0LlajcGJgLkZcbkrEdv-IbG5m234O1v4eWUo6EngkOsoiV4EmTqCJcn07\/s72-c\/LawlerRatesOct142024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3689234668270346471"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-14T11:19:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-14T11:19:10.521-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-05f\"\u003E2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ENOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is the second look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nClosed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.85% and 6.50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEioKE-DIJqXSX9MTmM3xHRzquF711B3Yhnb2U1z_77Wh1e1QJvoteo7mkjvRY2NsEYINyZaRgpFDvE8g_DGHkBHasFLs-Ekb52xUuxm6f24atYtSX17-ZDvFY_CZ-idPnnp-mo82-fQ0uB5QQ6vNEldPOjXMpwyDEGvZsLOVxjoFgDOGARVh9YI\/s666\/ClosedSept2024V2.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEioKE-DIJqXSX9MTmM3xHRzquF711B3Yhnb2U1z_77Wh1e1QJvoteo7mkjvRY2NsEYINyZaRgpFDvE8g_DGHkBHasFLs-Ekb52xUuxm6f24atYtSX17-ZDvFY_CZ-idPnnp-mo82-fQ0uB5QQ6vNEldPOjXMpwyDEGvZsLOVxjoFgDOGARVh9YI\/s320\/ClosedSept2024V2.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIn September, sales in these markets were down 4.2% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 5.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\nImportant: There were the same number of working days in September 2024 (20) as in September 2023 (20).  So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data.    Last month there was one fewer working day in August 2024 compared to August 2023 (22 vs 23), so seasonally adjusted sales were down less than NSA sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis data suggests that the September existing home sales report will show a year-over-year decline.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMany more local markets to come! \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3689234668270346471\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3689234668270346471","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3689234668270346471"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3689234668270346471"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEioKE-DIJqXSX9MTmM3xHRzquF711B3Yhnb2U1z_77Wh1e1QJvoteo7mkjvRY2NsEYINyZaRgpFDvE8g_DGHkBHasFLs-Ekb52xUuxm6f24atYtSX17-ZDvFY_CZ-idPnnp-mo82-fQ0uB5QQ6vNEldPOjXMpwyDEGvZsLOVxjoFgDOGARVh9YI\/s72-c\/ClosedSept2024V2.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2441117092499016437"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-14T08:17:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-14T08:17:13.948-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Oct 14th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.0% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week.\u0026nbsp;Inventory is now up 48.3% from the February seasonal bottom.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EThe first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.\u003C\/div\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgjTLIo7A_tUcm7aPaBnuSlTZBz61brFPn7XDX4-pc7GOFHAjiRNqnurzkZRnz1LwYNZpsgeT3H9SQ2riVmYTDcNtpE-HLhLItg5LRdr2lkRJsl1r_3fhaNOOunRo37Wps2u7pCRjAPIA9pZYIBDP6wXCP-eqYQ714nVGTpzUiV8HIk9wJxFPOt\/s1091\/AltosYoYOct142024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgjTLIo7A_tUcm7aPaBnuSlTZBz61brFPn7XDX4-pc7GOFHAjiRNqnurzkZRnz1LwYNZpsgeT3H9SQ2riVmYTDcNtpE-HLhLItg5LRdr2lkRJsl1r_3fhaNOOunRo37Wps2u7pCRjAPIA9pZYIBDP6wXCP-eqYQ714nVGTpzUiV8HIk9wJxFPOt\/s320\/AltosYoYOct142024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe red line is for 2024.\u0026nbsp; The black line is for 2019.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory was up 34.0% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 36.7%), and down 22\/6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.1%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBack in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgLL9_wN5xJTbkSjxulM0uZLWPAaZtNM4W64IfA8faTduFlWuR6ut-9zc3cEq6guFeP-Hefuf2U-no2zvyTdLApHavsKeNzauJdvjEDfUjndYFsmdIhRCMQWZwNPJsmdy_-goHUo0bH8vMOjERSad2Ml7smZOS82Hu24wfC00T5dQIeImsx1UDa\/s1177\/AltosOct142024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgLL9_wN5xJTbkSjxulM0uZLWPAaZtNM4W64IfA8faTduFlWuR6ut-9zc3cEq6guFeP-Hefuf2U-no2zvyTdLApHavsKeNzauJdvjEDfUjndYFsmdIhRCMQWZwNPJsmdy_-goHUo0bH8vMOjERSad2Ml7smZOS82Hu24wfC00T5dQIeImsx1UDa\/s320\/AltosOct142024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis second inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nAs of October 11th, inventory was at 732 thousand (7-day average), compared to 734 thousand the prior week.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2441117092499016437\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2441117092499016437","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2441117092499016437"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2441117092499016437"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/housing-oct-14th-weekly-update.html","title":"Housing Oct 14th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.0% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgjTLIo7A_tUcm7aPaBnuSlTZBz61brFPn7XDX4-pc7GOFHAjiRNqnurzkZRnz1LwYNZpsgeT3H9SQ2riVmYTDcNtpE-HLhLItg5LRdr2lkRJsl1r_3fhaNOOunRo37Wps2u7pCRjAPIA9pZYIBDP6wXCP-eqYQ714nVGTpzUiV8HIk9wJxFPOt\/s72-c\/AltosYoYOct142024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7701560215158890402"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-13T09:20:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-13T09:20:54.887-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom STR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/str.com\/press-release\/us-hotel-results-week-ending-5-october\"\u003EU.S. hotel results for week ending 5 October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EDue to Rosh Hashana, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 October. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n29 September through 5 October 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 65.6% (-3.4%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.25 (-4.4%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$102.44 (-7.7%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhxRuyuxAQQ1N2YRSPDJ5z8qaOUVnOQC0KFoiffcC7o-UbHD6kU1-tGMQodavinWg5ZQTad07nG-WekxDMKp37aVBak75nxnksVqL4x34ESAFJDw92ARSSNd7PZqjf9dGguok3-i6WYkI01_5GKecdTDJoHNvebkTPWYx36bJpZ9lqk64vMY7Fd\/s1032\/HotelOct52024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhxRuyuxAQQ1N2YRSPDJ5z8qaOUVnOQC0KFoiffcC7o-UbHD6kU1-tGMQodavinWg5ZQTad07nG-WekxDMKp37aVBak75nxnksVqL4x34ESAFJDw92ARSSNd7PZqjf9dGguok3-i6WYkI01_5GKecdTDJoHNvebkTPWYx36bJpZ9lqk64vMY7Fd\/s320\/HotelOct52024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.\u0026nbsp; Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is near the peak for the fall business travel season, and then will decline during the holidays.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7701560215158890402\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7701560215158890402","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7701560215158890402"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7701560215158890402"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-34-year.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhxRuyuxAQQ1N2YRSPDJ5z8qaOUVnOQC0KFoiffcC7o-UbHD6kU1-tGMQodavinWg5ZQTad07nG-WekxDMKp37aVBak75nxnksVqL4x34ESAFJDw92ARSSNd7PZqjf9dGguok3-i6WYkI01_5GKecdTDJoHNvebkTPWYx36bJpZ9lqk64vMY7Fd\/s72-c\/HotelOct52024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-678966701916235502"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-12T14:11:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-12T14:11:00.237-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Homeowner Insurance Costs \"Spike\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjP2H5MjUxIyXaV_MMoph5J3eVNh-AF8-eukyt9fsgEfvj3aNCy6GGrid7XGaO7zP3qE7Zf2idMVxCEdwsOrqp1T_Yep42vc2da_oilVXpDkI4mBGDpROk0Lsk0CMYjCkwtqSdfZ0GllQWXXgLH6_eNKfldXg_uuCKzyWd4358klo0xAEbIqT93\/s891\/ICEInsuranceCity2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"ICE New Listings\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjP2H5MjUxIyXaV_MMoph5J3eVNh-AF8-eukyt9fsgEfvj3aNCy6GGrid7XGaO7zP3qE7Zf2idMVxCEdwsOrqp1T_Yep42vc2da_oilVXpDkI4mBGDpROk0Lsk0CMYjCkwtqSdfZ0GllQWXXgLH6_eNKfldXg_uuCKzyWd4358klo0xAEbIqT93\/s320\/ICEInsuranceCity2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/ice-mortgage-monitor-insurance-costs\"\u003EICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs \"Spike\", Especially in Florida\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/house-prices-to-income\"\u003EHouse Prices to Income\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-383\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-f03\"\u003E1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/678966701916235502\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=678966701916235502","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/678966701916235502"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/678966701916235502"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this_01668439983.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Homeowner Insurance Costs \"Spike\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjP2H5MjUxIyXaV_MMoph5J3eVNh-AF8-eukyt9fsgEfvj3aNCy6GGrid7XGaO7zP3qE7Zf2idMVxCEdwsOrqp1T_Yep42vc2da_oilVXpDkI4mBGDpROk0Lsk0CMYjCkwtqSdfZ0GllQWXXgLH6_eNKfldXg_uuCKzyWd4358klo0xAEbIqT93\/s72-c\/ICEInsuranceCity2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2464993009964891833"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-12T08:11:00.057-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-12T08:11:00.235-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of October 13, 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key economic reports this week are September Retail Sales and Housing Starts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, October 14th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EColumbus Day Holiday\u003C\/b\u003E: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, October 15th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed \u003Cb\u003EEmpire State manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for October.  The consensus is for a reading of 2.4, down from 11.5.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, October 16th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, October 17th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh-k1YxS-ctNWjt59h4qPbppamJWM4qZHbe9Whk8o4cObX8gXzyerQ6eR1jWdZlKkO0ZV-SryvtIr498-91rI-n-rLMLEmlUJhZLSX9Zw6lLWIydxk2B_PQVQNPPYOcI9qOQZFkM_JpjmNq-SlAHqsXFrhrZloWDXLCizTuMRyX12dZRo2yOXR6\/s1044\/RetailAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh-k1YxS-ctNWjt59h4qPbppamJWM4qZHbe9Whk8o4cObX8gXzyerQ6eR1jWdZlKkO0ZV-SryvtIr498-91rI-n-rLMLEmlUJhZLSX9Zw6lLWIydxk2B_PQVQNPPYOcI9qOQZFkM_JpjmNq-SlAHqsXFrhrZloWDXLCizTuMRyX12dZRo2yOXR6\/s320\/RetailAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003ERetail sales\u003C\/b\u003E for September will be released. \u0026nbsp;The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.  The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, up from 258 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for October.  The consensus is for a reading of 3.0, up from 1.7.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgyhsLsF1gBHiMi0Iar3L6WrITihcih-KrLpTXw5mSBmmdSGV6HgRN3gxjlSkAsHNhHo3hhlGByvK6WlDKIOE-JywvuKmlHxslWhta-gmMXouEC5Uen8QvI0pNOEjBbC24YO-1GHrI1jqmc0yrIxvn_XjSLyDUKT-sT3jNGPdJ1uJcThFKplc6F\/s1006\/IPAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgyhsLsF1gBHiMi0Iar3L6WrITihcih-KrLpTXw5mSBmmdSGV6HgRN3gxjlSkAsHNhHo3hhlGByvK6WlDKIOE-JywvuKmlHxslWhta-gmMXouEC5Uen8QvI0pNOEjBbC24YO-1GHrI1jqmc0yrIxvn_XjSLyDUKT-sT3jNGPdJ1uJcThFKplc6F\/s320\/IPAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E9:15 AM: The Fed will release \u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/b\u003E for September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows industrial production since 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.9%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: The October \u003Cb\u003ENAHB homebuilder survey\u003C\/b\u003E. The consensus is for a reading of 42, up from 41 in September. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, October 18th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhZzDrFpK-pGp3sTzXp5HJGE_Nm3JWZKihCckCEIYqwma2K-3206rV9uTZGcgGkenJwWft1YPCMhiezOKQMqdNzlEqxv1va5CT5-hxMN-dsQyMqOIlEOEwy6mRX_WZgIPL1MpujG4iD2xpMpEuyf2ddy88gXFulIgApcmkQ1Y4WF3T4SCP7pCEc\/s1014\/StartsShortAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhZzDrFpK-pGp3sTzXp5HJGE_Nm3JWZKihCckCEIYqwma2K-3206rV9uTZGcgGkenJwWft1YPCMhiezOKQMqdNzlEqxv1va5CT5-hxMN-dsQyMqOIlEOEwy6mRX_WZgIPL1MpujG4iD2xpMpEuyf2ddy88gXFulIgApcmkQ1Y4WF3T4SCP7pCEc\/s320\/StartsShortAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts\u003C\/b\u003E for September. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is for 1.350 million SAAR, down from 1.356 million SAAR."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2464993009964891833\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2464993009964891833","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2464993009964891833"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2464993009964891833"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/schedule-for-week-of-october-13-2024.html","title":"Schedule for Week of October 13, 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh-k1YxS-ctNWjt59h4qPbppamJWM4qZHbe9Whk8o4cObX8gXzyerQ6eR1jWdZlKkO0ZV-SryvtIr498-91rI-n-rLMLEmlUJhZLSX9Zw6lLWIydxk2B_PQVQNPPYOcI9qOQZFkM_JpjmNq-SlAHqsXFrhrZloWDXLCizTuMRyX12dZRo2yOXR6\/s72-c\/RetailAug2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4406073705000285928"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-11T19:11:00.020-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-11T19:11:00.125-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"October 11th COVID Update: Wastewater Measure Continues to Decline"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgqmq0nyHlaMlIMHHzIgRmtC0CIMVqlAm4LC7b8-9IRb45pRfuaak1VS1xLbMBuUYqhYWTpDtcjE7NCfohwXsZgwWtaTzs0nA7OKh__j1eO8BpMiC10GOBm8LKVI8kuRK9TTe8knTrhUbbN_cGbF8iANcE0x0EFc4Z80V6zzCklXBJjRNM5T3Eg\/s403\/RatesOct112024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgqmq0nyHlaMlIMHHzIgRmtC0CIMVqlAm4LC7b8-9IRb45pRfuaak1VS1xLbMBuUYqhYWTpDtcjE7NCfohwXsZgwWtaTzs0nA7OKh__j1eO8BpMiC10GOBm8LKVI8kuRK9TTe8knTrhUbbN_cGbF8iANcE0x0EFc4Z80V6zzCklXBJjRNM5T3Eg\/s320\/RatesOct112024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: \"\u003Ci\u003EEffective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u0026nbsp; So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,157\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,159\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhetEoFm_qvVqTX-K7e5q_ZU5ZvUu3RkOWHjpTj_kbbT9Lk6nVxmkB4WSqrnJtG5IazQQ2j_7OSwBhQtZSvSf7WTUkWJKJxlx9Eirzo3GpvCyGCEy-Pi0Zpw2bvK-fzyTGHKCUTViYnX9IJkFMfZoA6AxFnZxjQNrRdRzVozpuzYz5XQSwmst3_\/s1208\/COVIDOct52024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhetEoFm_qvVqTX-K7e5q_ZU5ZvUu3RkOWHjpTj_kbbT9Lk6nVxmkB4WSqrnJtG5IazQQ2j_7OSwBhQtZSvSf7WTUkWJKJxlx9Eirzo3GpvCyGCEy-Pi0Zpw2bvK-fzyTGHKCUTViYnX9IJkFMfZoA6AxFnZxjQNrRdRzVozpuzYz5XQSwmst3_\/s320\/COVIDOct52024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAlthough weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWeekly deaths are almost quadruple the low of 302 in early June but are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAnd here is a graph I'm following concerning\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nwss\/rv\/COVID19-nationaltrend.html\"\u003ECOVID in wastewater\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;as of October 10th:\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiR0VOJAnxV8Z1Jr0y8hiZ28cdYs3CJaQQBGYdr65KBcd5KnmDz5U3-05d4zPPei261iR8ULTm4cRyF3nehLwXOoAVl-7pIisiijVYR8C6-yt0B8Bcoqjr1mcThoqa4dW5Olkq9cvmYoSGohNUz4QPtaMVBPA1yk3pf38yGdHjjIqVuvqTOZopL\/s981\/COVIDWasteOct102024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Wastewater\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiR0VOJAnxV8Z1Jr0y8hiZ28cdYs3CJaQQBGYdr65KBcd5KnmDz5U3-05d4zPPei261iR8ULTm4cRyF3nehLwXOoAVl-7pIisiijVYR8C6-yt0B8Bcoqjr1mcThoqa4dW5Olkq9cvmYoSGohNUz4QPtaMVBPA1yk3pf38yGdHjjIqVuvqTOZopL\/s320\/COVIDWasteOct102024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003EThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECOVID in wastewater is declining - now about double the lows of last May - suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4406073705000285928\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4406073705000285928","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4406073705000285928"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4406073705000285928"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/october-11th-covid-update-wastewater.html","title":"October 11th COVID Update: Wastewater Measure Continues to Decline"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgqmq0nyHlaMlIMHHzIgRmtC0CIMVqlAm4LC7b8-9IRb45pRfuaak1VS1xLbMBuUYqhYWTpDtcjE7NCfohwXsZgwWtaTzs0nA7OKh__j1eO8BpMiC10GOBm8LKVI8kuRK9TTe8knTrhUbbN_cGbF8iANcE0x0EFc4Z80V6zzCklXBJjRNM5T3Eg\/s72-c\/RatesOct112024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1208171021108423879"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-11T13:50:00.014-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-11T13:50:00.114-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.5% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003EWhat this means:\u003C\/b\u003E On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings.  On a monthly basis, they report total inventory.  For September, Realtor.com \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/september-2024-data\/\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u0026nbsp;Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 30.5% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003ERealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-october-5-2024\/\"\u003EWeekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Oct. 5, 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EActive inventory increased, with for-sale homes 30.5% above year-ago levels.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor the 48th consecutive week dating back to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year-over-year. This week’s growth was lower than last week’s, the third week of slowing growth, and the lowest annual change since April. Much of the inventory build up is due to more seller activity than buyer activity, but this week’s boost in new listings made for a sizable week-over-week increase in homes for sale.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Cb\u003ENew listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale-increased 8.0% this week compared to one year ago. \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe number of new listings has continued to increase, the annual increase picked up the pace this week. The pick up in fresh listings may be in response to recent improvements in mortgage rates, but it will likely take further improvement to move the needle in a more significant way.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjNcsAmJveBXSI8ZxhSTzzLaB2eScXEpvDtd6UiRFsSW7mbwUPIKUVG4dZGTw6SIsx16fK_4-yTvWGCKRIj49GGY1pCQepmzV0hpM0S3u3FscmxBu-PmdDD3MOGqld-u7PEKr0tnyCUX4MeyhA5Oa6j9PPjHeN-B2NY6tNCn_GmaNO9sSGl9Gp_\/s1016\/RealtorOct112024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Realtor YoY Active Listings\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjNcsAmJveBXSI8ZxhSTzzLaB2eScXEpvDtd6UiRFsSW7mbwUPIKUVG4dZGTw6SIsx16fK_4-yTvWGCKRIj49GGY1pCQepmzV0hpM0S3u3FscmxBu-PmdDD3MOGqld-u7PEKr0tnyCUX4MeyhA5Oa6j9PPjHeN-B2NY6tNCn_GmaNO9sSGl9Gp_\/s320\/RealtorOct112024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003Erealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory was up year-over-year for the 48th consecutive week.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHowever, inventory is still historically low.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENew listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.\u003C\/div\u003E \u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1208171021108423879\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1208171021108423879","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1208171021108423879"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1208171021108423879"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/realtorcom-reports-active-inventory-up_0846855318.html","title":"Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 30.5% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjNcsAmJveBXSI8ZxhSTzzLaB2eScXEpvDtd6UiRFsSW7mbwUPIKUVG4dZGTw6SIsx16fK_4-yTvWGCKRIj49GGY1pCQepmzV0hpM0S3u3FscmxBu-PmdDD3MOGqld-u7PEKr0tnyCUX4MeyhA5Oa6j9PPjHeN-B2NY6tNCn_GmaNO9sSGl9Gp_\/s72-c\/RealtorOct112024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5855549235652122649"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-11T10:47:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-11T10:47:44.425-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-383\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThis 2-part overview for mid-October provides a snapshot of the current housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inventory-will-tell-the-tale-dbb\"\u003Etells the tale\u003C\/a\u003E!  And currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \nHere is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/september-2024-data\/\"\u003ESeptember 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report\u003C\/a\u003E showing new listings were up 11.6% year-over-year in September. New listings are still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi9nqC66ihTK5fDSzIJMlBiHd2WI8rVrcoHw6jaD8_QRQvFVmGuaRL2QKQ4XbdqF1FfExGpuKGngoZo3RZqhvVDV6eJShRRMz3bUXBBzYmosSUImz1plzku1Tu5LwnoXMMtdd3DMILmPAkDkL3Theu_MUg8Q1vJjUV-0SZmjTJkVSQ6IqJPQ3Al\/s888\/RealtorNewAug2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Listings\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi9nqC66ihTK5fDSzIJMlBiHd2WI8rVrcoHw6jaD8_QRQvFVmGuaRL2QKQ4XbdqF1FfExGpuKGngoZo3RZqhvVDV6eJShRRMz3bUXBBzYmosSUImz1plzku1Tu5LwnoXMMtdd3DMILmPAkDkL3Theu_MUg8Q1vJjUV-0SZmjTJkVSQ6IqJPQ3Al\/s320\/RealtorNewAug2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EPerhaps the biggest news this month is that sellers stormed back this September as newly listed homes were 11.6% above last year’s levels and a significant reversal from August’s 0.9% decrease. We noted last month that the sharp decrease in mortgage rates seen in mid-August could lead to an increase in listings in the coming months as lower rates begin to entice the marginal homeowner to sell, and that’s exactly what happened in September. \u003C\/blockquote\u003ENote the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but still well below normal levels.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5855549235652122649\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5855549235652122649","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5855549235652122649"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5855549235652122649"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/part-1-current-state-of-housing-market.html","title":"Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi9nqC66ihTK5fDSzIJMlBiHd2WI8rVrcoHw6jaD8_QRQvFVmGuaRL2QKQ4XbdqF1FfExGpuKGngoZo3RZqhvVDV6eJShRRMz3bUXBBzYmosSUImz1plzku1Tu5LwnoXMMtdd3DMILmPAkDkL3Theu_MUg8Q1vJjUV-0SZmjTJkVSQ6IqJPQ3Al\/s72-c\/RealtorNewAug2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3916167899925902392"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-11T08:10:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-11T08:10:08.930-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003ESince our last weekly publication, our \u003Cb\u003E3Q GDP tracking estimate is unchanged at 2.6% q\/q saar\u003C\/b\u003E. [Oct 11th estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe left our \u003Cb\u003EQ3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)\u003C\/b\u003E and our Q3 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.8%. [Oct 8th estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Atlanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for \u003Cb\u003Ereal GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on October 9, unchanged from October 8 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.4 percent to 3.3 percent. [Oct 9th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3916167899925902392\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3916167899925902392","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3916167899925902392"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3916167899925902392"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/q3-gdp-tracking-around-3_11.html","title":"Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9164264223114227225"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-10T19:42:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-10T19:42:00.116-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: PPI"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEir6zpVxK2rdql6q89m5h88Xx43xc1mlAp5v9ogoh1gobt9hTfQknnvcAjCN9qEAma7sFX6Kxhr99q8oPhJCEU0id_QeCZ5Zd2hZkWn22WrweMWLZ6U5lWzGwDuymgERxxqcO_6OY-toy0b-LpqEVG77HMNYRiM2LlzgyWNHN6qD48xIZXIu9EJ\/s306\/RatesOct102024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEir6zpVxK2rdql6q89m5h88Xx43xc1mlAp5v9ogoh1gobt9hTfQknnvcAjCN9qEAma7sFX6Kxhr99q8oPhJCEU0id_QeCZ5Zd2hZkWn22WrweMWLZ6U5lWzGwDuymgERxxqcO_6OY-toy0b-LpqEVG77HMNYRiM2LlzgyWNHN6qD48xIZXIu9EJ\/s320\/RatesOct102024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for September\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Preliminary for October)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9164264223114227225\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9164264223114227225","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9164264223114227225"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9164264223114227225"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/friday-ppi.html","title":"Friday: PPI"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEir6zpVxK2rdql6q89m5h88Xx43xc1mlAp5v9ogoh1gobt9hTfQknnvcAjCN9qEAma7sFX6Kxhr99q8oPhJCEU0id_QeCZ5Zd2hZkWn22WrweMWLZ6U5lWzGwDuymgERxxqcO_6OY-toy0b-LpqEVG77HMNYRiM2LlzgyWNHN6qD48xIZXIu9EJ\/s72-c\/RatesOct102024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2919090689973186305"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-10T16:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-10T16:11:52.957-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThe Cleveland Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/en\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/median-cpi.aspx\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. \"The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjvKaL2p1W9skWuzebI8a1rtjX08G89R1j-ir_ZqGyncynmu-rx7S0xEPcpW1ERVVDyTd46CezH-fT4vdloCKRIiEwwsgFhuyU37s3bDD0GyaHQ6v9_ZlyEyLumLHW06f7ooI6JUAIVeBIbWHvVMdWCI10LW9FnsVWnFpWoB5EiSwlSLWKmjs6z\/s1060\/InflationSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Inflation Measures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjvKaL2p1W9skWuzebI8a1rtjX08G89R1j-ir_ZqGyncynmu-rx7S0xEPcpW1ERVVDyTd46CezH-fT4vdloCKRIiEwwsgFhuyU37s3bDD0GyaHQ6v9_ZlyEyLumLHW06f7ooI6JUAIVeBIbWHvVMdWCI10LW9FnsVWnFpWoB5EiSwlSLWKmjs6z\/s320\/InflationSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.1% (down from 4.2% in August), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (unchanged from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.3% (up from 3.2%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECore PCE is for August was up 2.7% YoY, up from 2.6% in July.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. Motor fuel decreased at a 39% annual rate in September.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2919090689973186305\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2919090689973186305","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2919090689973186305"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2919090689973186305"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03.html","title":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjvKaL2p1W9skWuzebI8a1rtjX08G89R1j-ir_ZqGyncynmu-rx7S0xEPcpW1ERVVDyTd46CezH-fT4vdloCKRIiEwwsgFhuyU37s3bDD0GyaHQ6v9_ZlyEyLumLHW06f7ooI6JUAIVeBIbWHvVMdWCI10LW9FnsVWnFpWoB5EiSwlSLWKmjs6z\/s72-c\/InflationSept2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6951780972416682794"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-10T13:24:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-10T13:24:08.800-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"House Prices to Income"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/house-prices-to-income\"\u003EHouse Prices to Income\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EOne of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately, most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller - we have indexes, not actually prices. But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measures of income.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EHouse Price to National Average Wage Index\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9Vm09pAcaAVsYLLtDbcOaCRVh4zXufliy2RSJgUfqVTY9ZoxlU8QlxiPzxum82it-vq9yD9ybRGG8nMpfnW8r4oCISrmv9upWOxcOAODRxAR4M-TLyTX8rjSo1VNeP-Py5M0BcNvABBhG068Zx5ZFbfREQZKAhlF1TZfiHLIVDcYwEyqJI12K\/s1118\/HPNWI2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9Vm09pAcaAVsYLLtDbcOaCRVh4zXufliy2RSJgUfqVTY9ZoxlU8QlxiPzxum82it-vq9yD9ybRGG8nMpfnW8r4oCISrmv9upWOxcOAODRxAR4M-TLyTX8rjSo1VNeP-Py5M0BcNvABBhG068Zx5ZFbfREQZKAhlF1TZfiHLIVDcYwEyqJI12K\/s320\/HPNWI2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFor the following graph I decided to look at house prices and the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.socialsecurity.gov\/OACT\/COLA\/AWI.html\"\u003ENational Average Wage Index\u003C\/a\u003E released this morning for 2023 from Social Security.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe National Average Wage Index increased to $66,621.80 in 2023, up 4.43% from $63,795.13 in 2022. This was the third consecutive year with strong wage gains, and wages are up almost 20% over the last 3 years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe last time we saw 3-year wage gains this high was in the late 1970s and early 1980s.  Another reason to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-dont-compare-the-current\"\u003Ecompare the current housing cycle\u003C\/a\u003E to the 1978 to 1982 period (not the housing bubble and bust).\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6951780972416682794\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6951780972416682794","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6951780972416682794"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6951780972416682794"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/house-prices-to-income.html","title":"House Prices to Income"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg9Vm09pAcaAVsYLLtDbcOaCRVh4zXufliy2RSJgUfqVTY9ZoxlU8QlxiPzxum82it-vq9yD9ybRGG8nMpfnW8r4oCISrmv9upWOxcOAODRxAR4M-TLyTX8rjSo1VNeP-Py5M0BcNvABBhG068Zx5ZFbfREQZKAhlF1TZfiHLIVDcYwEyqJI12K\/s72-c\/HPNWI2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3506758834744288660"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-10T09:20:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-10T09:20:44.212-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here are a few measures of inflation:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; This declined and is now up 4.4% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi22191a8bPGzjIMvyOBJzZrNopgz0maEwaegtfUkeLhJYpHsM6C7uuX6pEKGwY93c4RxMBtMweZ10jGsYv5eFJB1t0kguNWlRAc4RwiuEBl9MCHBoY-h7H7o3Pw1y4m-lvwBAloWubQHsw5cH4JxMwgBuJtIqMTJ1yBEhw-_LOKcDU-QpQHs4J\/s899\/ServicesSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Services ex-Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi22191a8bPGzjIMvyOBJzZrNopgz0maEwaegtfUkeLhJYpHsM6C7uuX6pEKGwY93c4RxMBtMweZ10jGsYv5eFJB1t0kguNWlRAc4RwiuEBl9MCHBoY-h7H7o3Pw1y4m-lvwBAloWubQHsw5cH4JxMwgBuJtIqMTJ1yBEhw-_LOKcDU-QpQHs4J\/s320\/ServicesSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2024.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EServices were up 4.7% YoY as of September 2024, down from 4.8% YoY in August.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nServices less rent of shelter was up 4.4% YoY in September, up from 4.3% YoY in August.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjgyUDun8incFggoojNnBITotekYct6gKNFvkpt8vNEE5hkDe892wy_NAEdkLqnpmO9n794Bay7m8KSlbSYrSalrxUlsBth2mqogJsjAHutOMtlCcfI1OZXUTRpxAdhHPtIxE1ZzW1b4YF0S56Wv58o_LhwCaVJ28W4FFCQSXd99aZWqGeBZh67\/s904\/DurablesSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Goods CPI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjgyUDun8incFggoojNnBITotekYct6gKNFvkpt8vNEE5hkDe892wy_NAEdkLqnpmO9n794Bay7m8KSlbSYrSalrxUlsBth2mqogJsjAHutOMtlCcfI1OZXUTRpxAdhHPtIxE1ZzW1b4YF0S56Wv58o_LhwCaVJ28W4FFCQSXd99aZWqGeBZh67\/s320\/DurablesSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDurables were at -2.9% YoY as of September 2024, up from -4.2% YoY in August.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCommodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.2% YoY in September, up from -1.7% YoY in August.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg_TesBzOQnuPesi-CnIptQkqACW0qw7JN4TQ5xqWJOjEnUHDYrjyESmNO7IUBgxfEJB76texS_Ty0TwUYUekzaShxxDBOCmr3-tRVkPXGgonOCIRG8WOp3E6_YSBjJX-RgrO5z2g8Bzgg8tsmFts_7zAd5YRELV34t__boaGFxX8Q1UzuOGYdr\/s1116\/ShelterSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg_TesBzOQnuPesi-CnIptQkqACW0qw7JN4TQ5xqWJOjEnUHDYrjyESmNO7IUBgxfEJB76texS_Ty0TwUYUekzaShxxDBOCmr3-tRVkPXGgonOCIRG8WOp3E6_YSBjJX-RgrO5z2g8Bzgg8tsmFts_7zAd5YRELV34t__boaGFxX8Q1UzuOGYdr\/s320\/ShelterSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through September) and housing from the PCE report (through August)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nShelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in September\u003C\/b\u003E, down from 5.2% in August.  Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in August, up from 5.2% in July.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe BLS noted this morning: \"The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together,\nthese two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase.\"\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is still catching up with private data.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ECore CPI ex-shelter was up 2.0% YoY in September.\u003C\/b\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3506758834744288660\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3506758834744288660","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3506758834744288660"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3506758834744288660"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html","title":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi22191a8bPGzjIMvyOBJzZrNopgz0maEwaegtfUkeLhJYpHsM6C7uuX6pEKGwY93c4RxMBtMweZ10jGsYv5eFJB1t0kguNWlRAc4RwiuEBl9MCHBoY-h7H7o3Pw1y4m-lvwBAloWubQHsw5cH4JxMwgBuJtIqMTJ1yBEhw-_LOKcDU-QpQHs4J\/s72-c\/ServicesSept2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3073880819587970457"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-10T08:56:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-10T08:56:13.525-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.5% in 2025, Contribution Base increased to $176,100"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2025.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom Social Security: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/news\/press\/releases\/2024\/#2024-10-10\"\u003ESocial Security Announces 2.5 Percent Benefit Increase for 2025\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nSocial Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for more than 72.5 million Americans \u003Cb\u003Ewill increase 2.5 percent in 2025\u003C\/b\u003E, the Social Security Administration announced today. On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by about $50 per month starting in January.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOver the last decade the COLA increase has averaged about 2.6 percent. The COLA was 3.2 percent in 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSome other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages.  Based on that increase, \u003Cb\u003Ethe maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) is slated to increase to $176,100\u003C\/b\u003E from $168,600.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nCurrently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA).  Here is\u0026nbsp;a discussion from Social Security on the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/OACT\/COLA\/latestCOLA.html\"\u003Ecurrent calculation\u003C\/a\u003E (2.5% increase) and a list of previous \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/OACT\/COLA\/colaseries.html\"\u003ECost-of-Living Adjustments\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.socialsecurity.gov\/OACT\/COLA\/cbb.html\"\u003Econtribution and benefit base\u003C\/a\u003E will be $168,600 in 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.socialsecurity.gov\/OACT\/COLA\/AWI.html\"\u003ENational Average Wage Index\u003C\/a\u003E increased to $ 66,621.80 in 2023, up 4.4% from $63,795.13 in 2022 (used to calculate contribution base).\u0026nbsp;"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3073880819587970457\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3073880819587970457","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3073880819587970457"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3073880819587970457"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/cost-of-living-adjustment-increases-25.html","title":"Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.5% in 2025, Contribution Base increased to $176,100"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8051730560291558660"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-10T08:41:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-10T08:41:49.623-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 258,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nIn the week ending October 5, \u003Cb\u003Ethe advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000\u003C\/b\u003E, an increase of \n33,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 225,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since August 5, \n2023 when it was 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's \nunrevised average of 224,250.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi6YX1QjomJI5d4fsvQIUZXh-5tDjp3RKsLFPlfPfzif4IWbgiSOXrjXuKbhNTYtttIbsVjjddgnlo6-sKUbptZ1NsRu2uPrrxRfn0q4D-UzL4Tv5bRMezVrnTCPr9laDJNitajXCY4R3ZWiVK4Vlt-fAXKQ118Ks5FMCgKJInzsTKkOXlK6jUO\/s1078\/WeeklyClaimsOct102024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi6YX1QjomJI5d4fsvQIUZXh-5tDjp3RKsLFPlfPfzif4IWbgiSOXrjXuKbhNTYtttIbsVjjddgnlo6-sKUbptZ1NsRu2uPrrxRfn0q4D-UzL4Tv5bRMezVrnTCPr9laDJNitajXCY4R3ZWiVK4Vlt-fAXKQ118Ks5FMCgKJInzsTKkOXlK6jUO\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsOct102024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 231,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous week was unrevised.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWeekly claims were above the consensus forecast.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe increase this week is partially hurricane related, for example North Carolina had a sharp increase in initial claims from 2,941 the prior week to 11,475 in the week ending Oct 5th.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8051730560291558660\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8051730560291558660","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8051730560291558660"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8051730560291558660"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_10.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 258,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi6YX1QjomJI5d4fsvQIUZXh-5tDjp3RKsLFPlfPfzif4IWbgiSOXrjXuKbhNTYtttIbsVjjddgnlo6-sKUbptZ1NsRu2uPrrxRfn0q4D-UzL4Tv5bRMezVrnTCPr9laDJNitajXCY4R3ZWiVK4Vlt-fAXKQ118Ks5FMCgKJInzsTKkOXlK6jUO\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsOct102024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8509810998959503177"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-10T08:30:00.011-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-10T08:32:15.859-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in September; Core CPI increased 0.3%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\"\u003EFrom the BLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted\nbasis\u003C\/b\u003E, the same increase as in August and July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over\nthe last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together,\nthese two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase. The food at home index\nincreased 0.4 percent in September and the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month. The\nenergy index fell 1.9 percent over the month, after declining 0.8 percent the preceding month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September\u003C\/b\u003E, as it did the preceding month.\nIndexes which increased in September include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, apparel, and\nairline fares. The indexes for recreation and communication were among those that decreased over the month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nThe all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending September, the smallest 12-month increase\nsince February 2021\u003C\/b\u003E. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months.\nThe energy index decreased 6.8 percent for the 12 months ending September. The food index increased 2.3\npercent over the last year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe change in CPI was slightly above expectations.  I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8509810998959503177\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8509810998959503177","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8509810998959503177"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8509810998959503177"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/bls-cpi-increased-02-in-september-core.html","title":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in September; Core CPI increased 0.3%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5613727220361423892"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-09T19:43:00.006-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-09T19:43:00.116-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEizJh0zkOY9yjbHMnfr0dl7cZl1SgGlu_oNTaXteq8-UBl7vY53USTADhhyphenhyphenMoZnZxGEosc5s5yQNBv6BDh1B38SWlU1VUIfIErbVu6JqY_vIO1aIbLB8LQ9Ni-ULRsEuvHm3PK3-NuTmXxw0dpAlu32ZLC8jdg-tCGKwxLmZJiIbT-IAzZx8H6x\/s399\/RatesOct92024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEizJh0zkOY9yjbHMnfr0dl7cZl1SgGlu_oNTaXteq8-UBl7vY53USTADhhyphenhyphenMoZnZxGEosc5s5yQNBv6BDh1B38SWlU1VUIfIErbVu6JqY_vIO1aIbLB8LQ9Ni-ULRsEuvHm3PK3-NuTmXxw0dpAlu32ZLC8jdg-tCGKwxLmZJiIbT-IAzZx8H6x\/s320\/RatesOct92024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.  The consensus is for 228 thousand initial claims, up from 225 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for September\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.3% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5613727220361423892\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5613727220361423892","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5613727220361423892"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5613727220361423892"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/thursday-cpi-unemployment-claims.html","title":"Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEizJh0zkOY9yjbHMnfr0dl7cZl1SgGlu_oNTaXteq8-UBl7vY53USTADhhyphenhyphenMoZnZxGEosc5s5yQNBv6BDh1B38SWlU1VUIfIErbVu6JqY_vIO1aIbLB8LQ9Ni-ULRsEuvHm3PK3-NuTmXxw0dpAlu32ZLC8jdg-tCGKwxLmZJiIbT-IAzZx8H6x\/s72-c\/RatesOct92024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1660375185027927143"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-09T15:35:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-09T15:35:00.257-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in September, Intermodal Up"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/rail-traffic-data\/\"\u003ERail Time Indicators\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Ci\u003EGraphs and excerpts reprinted with permission\u003C\/i\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EYear-to-date total carloads in 2024 through September were down 3.3% (285,871 carloads) from last \nyear and down 3.0% from the first nine months of 2022. So far in 2024, total carloads fell on a year\nover-year basis every month except August.  ...  \nYear-to-date U.S. intermodal in 2024 through September was 10.2 million units, up \n9.5% (882,064 units) over last year and the fourth highest January-September total ever. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiXmlRANjvPB_au0V0Hkla2rBtzBRwKzUYD9mx3LEdOKkr5PdS3zN0NLRZZKYppgcBi-eje3T4U8wO8rrpWEhWoFNum2DqGguhcCymGpAabhdU9r44kEqdsnxU5r9wc-enEaHsXK3zkzUT5IzRBHilm9yP1l_Wez8qoafU__owZmxLnqQDrssxu\/s998\/AARCarloadsSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiXmlRANjvPB_au0V0Hkla2rBtzBRwKzUYD9mx3LEdOKkr5PdS3zN0NLRZZKYppgcBi-eje3T4U8wO8rrpWEhWoFNum2DqGguhcCymGpAabhdU9r44kEqdsnxU5r9wc-enEaHsXK3zkzUT5IzRBHilm9yP1l_Wez8qoafU__owZmxLnqQDrssxu\/s320\/AARCarloadsSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/popular-publications\/rail-time-indicators\"\u003ERail Time Indicators report\u003C\/a\u003E shows the six-week average for carloads for the last 3 years.\u0026nbsp; Total carloads were down 0.5% in September YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003ECarloads excluding coal were more promising: they were up \n2.9% in Q3 2024 over Q3 2023, suggesting continued appetite for \nrail transportation. Excluding coal, total carloads were 1.4% (86,782 \ncarloads) higher in the first nine months of 2024 than in the same \nperiod in 2023.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhRFRgEHnveMiNh55hmKoLunWC_Pj8JMqrMHpXyReRhDDloDKsGhg8PaC5llQB0cAm3x4m7aOj3h0miesxTg37Z-6ovnqkzfLaDyksd0srFD_JVjyRv8zj9PvvowRY2PFXvHsY7BET03tpPRbm4Y28Wt2wcHEIob-YLD5SeR2gciHr9Jq4aLsXm\/s1001\/AARIntermodalSept2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhRFRgEHnveMiNh55hmKoLunWC_Pj8JMqrMHpXyReRhDDloDKsGhg8PaC5llQB0cAm3x4m7aOj3h0miesxTg37Z-6ovnqkzfLaDyksd0srFD_JVjyRv8zj9PvvowRY2PFXvHsY7BET03tpPRbm4Y28Wt2wcHEIob-YLD5SeR2gciHr9Jq4aLsXm\/s320\/AARIntermodalSept2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd on Intermodal:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. intermodal originations in September 2024 \nwere up 10.7% (108,257 containers and trailers) \nover September 2023, marking more than a year \nof consecutive year-over-year gains. In Q3 2024, \nintermodal was up 11.0% over Q3 2023, the \nbiggest year-over-year percentage gain for a \nquarter since Q2 2021. Total intermodal \noriginations averaged 274,500 in Q3 2024. Only \n2018 had a better third quarter for total \nintermodal.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E Note: \u003Cb\u003Erail traffic was weak even before the pandemic\u003C\/b\u003E.  As AAR noted: \"Trade tensions and declining mfrg. output lead to lower rail volumes\" in 2019."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1660375185027927143\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1660375185027927143","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1660375185027927143"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1660375185027927143"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/aar-rail-carloads-down-yoy-in-september.html","title":"AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in September, Intermodal Up"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiXmlRANjvPB_au0V0Hkla2rBtzBRwKzUYD9mx3LEdOKkr5PdS3zN0NLRZZKYppgcBi-eje3T4U8wO8rrpWEhWoFNum2DqGguhcCymGpAabhdU9r44kEqdsnxU5r9wc-enEaHsXK3zkzUT5IzRBHilm9yP1l_Wez8qoafU__owZmxLnqQDrssxu\/s72-c\/AARCarloadsSept2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6948777853816152216"},"published":{"$t":"2024-10-09T14:00:00.014-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-10-09T14:09:49.477-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"FOMC Minutes:  \"Some participants noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcminutes20240918.htm\"\u003EMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee\u003C\/a\u003E.  Excerpt:\u003Cblockquote\u003EWith regard to the outlook for inflation, almost all participants indicated they had gained \u003Cb\u003Egreater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent\u003C\/b\u003E. Participants cited various factors that were likely to put continuing downward pressure on inflation. These included a further modest slowing in real GDP growth, in part due to the Committee's restrictive monetary policy stance; well-anchored inflation expectations; waning pricing power; increases in productivity; and a softening in world commodity prices. Several participants noted that nominal wage growth was continuing to slow, with a few participants citing signs that it was set to decline further. These signs included lower rates of increases in cyclically sensitive wages and data indicating that job switchers were no longer receiving a wage premium over other employees. A couple of participants remarked that, with wages being a relatively large portion of business costs in the services sector, that sector's disinflation process would be particularly assisted by slower nominal wage growth. In addition, several participants observed that, with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance, wage increases were unlikely to be a source of general inflation pressures in the near future. \u003Cb\u003EWith regard to housing services prices, some participants suggested that a more rapid disinflationary trend might emerge fairly soon, reflecting the slower pace of rent increases faced by new tenants.\u003C\/b\u003E Participants emphasized that inflation remained somewhat elevated and that they were strongly committed to returning inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants noted that inflation had made further progress toward the Committee's objective but remained somewhat elevated. Almost all participants expressed greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent. Participants also observed that recent indicators suggested that economic activity had continued to expand at a solid pace, job gains had slowed, and the unemployment rate had moved up but remained low. Almost all participants judged that the risks to achieving the Committee's employment and inflation goals were roughly in balance. In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, all participants agreed that it was appropriate to ease the stance of monetary policy. Given the significant progress made since the Committee first set its target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1\/4 to 5-1\/2 percent, \u003Cb\u003Ea substantial majority of participants supported lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4-3\/4 to 5 percent\u003C\/b\u003E. These participants generally observed that such a recalibration of the stance of monetary policy would begin to bring it into better alignment with recent indicators of inflation and the labor market. They also emphasized that such a move would help sustain the strength in the economy and the labor market while continuing to promote progress on inflation, and would reflect the balance of risks. \u003Cb\u003ESome participants noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting\u003C\/b\u003E and that data over the intermeeting period had provided further evidence that inflation was on a sustainable path toward 2 percent while the labor market continued to cool. However, noting that inflation was still somewhat elevated while economic growth remained solid and unemployment remained low, \u003Cb\u003Esome participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision\u003C\/b\u003E. Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalization that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved. A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization. A few participants remarked that the overall path of policy normalization, rather than the specific amount of initial easing at this meeting, would be more important in determining the degree of policy restriction. Participants judged that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6948777853816152216\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6948777853816152216","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6948777853816152216"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6948777853816152216"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/10\/fomc-minutes-some-participants-noted.html","title":"FOMC Minutes:  \"Some participants noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});