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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"32233"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5152331034596819194"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-20T14:11:00.018-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-20T14:11:00.136-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing Home Months-of-Supply above December 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/single-family-starts-up-year-over\"\u003ESingle Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-a49\"\u003ENAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78 million SAAR in December; Months-of-Supply above December 2019\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/4th-look-at-local-housing-markets-a44\"\u003E4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December; California Home Sales Down 7.1% YoY in December\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/update-the-housing-bubble-and-mortgage\"\u003EUpdate: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home-9c1\"\u003ELawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-3cd\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-3cd\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5152331034596819194\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5152331034596819194","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5152331034596819194"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5152331034596819194"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this_0465914168.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing Home Months-of-Supply above December 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4131823281266620598"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-20T08:11:00.049-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-20T08:11:00.127-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of January 21, 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales and December Personal Income and Outlays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, January 22nd  -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNo major economic releases are scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, January 23rd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003ERichmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for January.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EState Employment and Unemployment\u003C\/b\u003E (Monthly) for December 2023\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, January 24th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nDuring the day: The AIA's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, January 25th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EGross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and Year 2023\u003C\/b\u003E (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.8% annualized in Q4.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 200 thousand initial claims, up from 187 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EDurable Goods Orders \u003C\/b\u003Efor December.  The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EChicago Fed National Activity Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December.  This is a composite index of other data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjDYUfJfMVLhS3Gp3rPxcCGYdFXvv4lRJp9K-Z-avcrYbZJOHBPNMLGsmcSu0sBaWnw0tAAuLWNBy4yh04csu5w8F20FarVGeCqclEjJ9MAojhnkutQlTqEvrYKNYXb8pFZRL9LhMlX8UtbyA65ytIOxBZvTmIHx0-6nWUR7ij-ZEvkxCnOfmHP\/s1076\/NHSNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjDYUfJfMVLhS3Gp3rPxcCGYdFXvv4lRJp9K-Z-avcrYbZJOHBPNMLGsmcSu0sBaWnw0tAAuLWNBy4yh04csu5w8F20FarVGeCqclEjJ9MAojhnkutQlTqEvrYKNYXb8pFZRL9LhMlX8UtbyA65ytIOxBZvTmIHx0-6nWUR7ij-ZEvkxCnOfmHP\/s320\/NHSNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003ENew Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December from the Census Bureau. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows New Home Sales since 1963.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line is the sales rate for last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is for 650 thousand SAAR, up from 590 thousand in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n11:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EKansas City Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for January.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, January 26th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EPersonal Income and Outlays\u003C\/b\u003E for December.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending.  And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.\u0026nbsp; PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 3.0% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EPending Home Sales Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December.  The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in the index."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4131823281266620598\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4131823281266620598","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4131823281266620598"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4131823281266620598"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/schedule-for-week-of-january-21-2024.html","title":"Schedule for Week of January 21, 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjDYUfJfMVLhS3Gp3rPxcCGYdFXvv4lRJp9K-Z-avcrYbZJOHBPNMLGsmcSu0sBaWnw0tAAuLWNBy4yh04csu5w8F20FarVGeCqclEjJ9MAojhnkutQlTqEvrYKNYXb8pFZRL9LhMlX8UtbyA65ytIOxBZvTmIHx0-6nWUR7ij-ZEvkxCnOfmHP\/s72-c\/NHSNov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-778687104148037931"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-19T19:45:00.018-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-19T19:45:00.143-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Jan 19th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Increased"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgR_t6hkYTMWOwkY4WzpYI7Uco1fmPlw_r_EEiBVHGZooePZlJefuot7xY-THKgrEOGN8tO1EJyqXVcMNpFG5IeWZ1ItmsSFtPcuTMKx5AOWX12aEJzb2hWT-hm9Jt8vTcRSU44X7VlBOHJ6O8c8Iz0CpKwwmHS8TadKPQuuscObHL39Nqpqorn\/s396\/RatesJan192024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgR_t6hkYTMWOwkY4WzpYI7Uco1fmPlw_r_EEiBVHGZooePZlJefuot7xY-THKgrEOGN8tO1EJyqXVcMNpFG5IeWZ1ItmsSFtPcuTMKx5AOWX12aEJzb2hWT-hm9Jt8vTcRSU44X7VlBOHJ6O8c8Iz0CpKwwmHS8TadKPQuuscObHL39Nqpqorn\/s320\/RatesJan192024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDue to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHospitalizations have more than quintupled\u0026nbsp;from a low of 5,150 in June 2023.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHospitalizations are about 20% of the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E27,882\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E29,807\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,768\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,712\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003EWeekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjonC51Y9NzIfhyphenhyphenH50r4plWebtY9HeCqItnHMJUoShhqoYHAJF-LmH2SPxHuPRjseRcIRP6PY7ZicMR3JbOZvn5akhz1vXNmRRFoBym-XK0ZVIJNYyQZRR_43s3cQNRXJzvJnw3-jV2bbq39HbbY3SOHReEPHgK4Dh6du2q417OOB6a1XS0Imur\/s1201\/COVIDDeathsJan192024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjonC51Y9NzIfhyphenhyphenH50r4plWebtY9HeCqItnHMJUoShhqoYHAJF-LmH2SPxHuPRjseRcIRP6PY7ZicMR3JbOZvn5akhz1vXNmRRFoBym-XK0ZVIJNYyQZRR_43s3cQNRXJzvJnw3-jV2bbq39HbbY3SOHReEPHgK4Dh6du2q417OOB6a1XS0Imur\/s320\/COVIDDeathsJan192024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWeekly deaths have more than tripled from a low of 485 in early July.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/b\u003EStill weekly deaths are far below the weekly peak of 26,000 in January 2021.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/778687104148037931\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=778687104148037931","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/778687104148037931"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/778687104148037931"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/jan-19th-covid-update-weekly-deaths.html","title":"Jan 19th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Increased"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgR_t6hkYTMWOwkY4WzpYI7Uco1fmPlw_r_EEiBVHGZooePZlJefuot7xY-THKgrEOGN8tO1EJyqXVcMNpFG5IeWZ1ItmsSFtPcuTMKx5AOWX12aEJzb2hWT-hm9Jt8vTcRSU44X7VlBOHJ6O8c8Iz0CpKwwmHS8TadKPQuuscObHL39Nqpqorn\/s72-c\/RatesJan192024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4876732102392731768"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-19T14:01:00.010-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-19T14:01:00.130-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q4 GDP Tracking: Around 1.8%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The advance estimate of Q4 GDP will be released next week, and the consensus is for real GDP (SAAR) of 1.8%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003EOverall, since our last weekly publication, our \u003Cb\u003E4Q US GDP tracking estimate is up two-tenths to 1.3% q\/q saar\u003C\/b\u003E, while 3Q GDP finalized at 4.9% q\/q saar in the third estimate. [Jan 12th estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003EFollowing today’s data, we left our \u003Cb\u003EQ4 GDP tracking unchanged at +1.8% (qoq ar)\u003C\/b\u003E and our Q4 domestic final sales growth forecast also unchanged at +2.5% (qoq ar). [Jan 19th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for \u003Cb\u003Ereal GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on January 19, unchanged from January 18 after rounding. After this morning's existing-home sales report from the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -0.4 percent to -0.6 percent. [Jan 19th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4876732102392731768\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4876732102392731768","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4876732102392731768"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4876732102392731768"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/q4-gdp-tracking-around-18.html","title":"Q4 GDP Tracking: Around 1.8%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7363750604728087899"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-19T10:50:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-19T10:50:45.478-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78 million SAAR in December; Months-of-Supply above December 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-a49\"\u003ENAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78 million SAAR in December; Months-of-Supply above December 2019\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh91H7Nk1cE5j-ap8bl-ky3Sv7zxVOf_W8xNKOg3azHDDYo38-SfqUiYWac_RC3bYt1KtR0A37NmqSgx3489GQhMVj_rErHdissOd6KMYOPjfBkeCLf3nSIf1tQNiUY-rAXvH3AE51M_SewPCnx2WHI15TD2W5U37UP-D-JSzu4stp31C4Yad-k\/s943\/EHS20222023Dec.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales Year-over-year\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh91H7Nk1cE5j-ap8bl-ky3Sv7zxVOf_W8xNKOg3azHDDYo38-SfqUiYWac_RC3bYt1KtR0A37NmqSgx3489GQhMVj_rErHdissOd6KMYOPjfBkeCLf3nSIf1tQNiUY-rAXvH3AE51M_SewPCnx2WHI15TD2W5U37UP-D-JSzu4stp31C4Yad-k\/s320\/EHS20222023Dec.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ESales declined 6.2% year-over-year compared to December 2022. This was the twenty-eighth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. This was just below the previous cycle low of 3.79 million SAAR in October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EOn an annual basis, sales were down 19% from 2022 to the lowest level since 1995.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7363750604728087899\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7363750604728087899","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7363750604728087899"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7363750604728087899"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to_19.html","title":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78 million SAAR in December; Months-of-Supply above December 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh91H7Nk1cE5j-ap8bl-ky3Sv7zxVOf_W8xNKOg3azHDDYo38-SfqUiYWac_RC3bYt1KtR0A37NmqSgx3489GQhMVj_rErHdissOd6KMYOPjfBkeCLf3nSIf1tQNiUY-rAXvH3AE51M_SewPCnx2WHI15TD2W5U37UP-D-JSzu4stp31C4Yad-k\/s72-c\/EHS20222023Dec.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5592106828810158037"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-19T10:00:00.042-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-19T10:12:04.097-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales Since 1995"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/existing-home-sales-slid-1-0-in-december\"\u003EExisting-Home Sales Slid 1.0% in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EExisting-home sales retreated in December, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slipped in the Midwest and South, rose in the West and were unchanged in the Northeast. All four regions experienced year-over-year sales decreases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOn an annual basis, existing-home sales (4.09 million) dropped to the lowest level since 1995, while the median price reached a record high of $389,800 in 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nTotal existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – \u003Cb\u003Edecreased 1.0% from November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million in December\u003C\/b\u003E. Year-over-year, sales declined 6.2% (down from 4.03 million in December 2022).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal housing inventory registered at the end of December was 1 million units, down 11.5% from November but up 4.2% from one year ago (960,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.5 months in November but up from 2.9 months in December 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGv_ay0sKhUjnWZuRrCnB2u4U0u9RTi-1s7DoqwUOKeP7o0O4XnDy-hYGUJwNo2fZjLqKXOeeA4v-NKMND9p1oqtiqvpK0RXNtbwtW821LIIOyOYKD4qLFoOWzQN1qZPZAJ_cojQ_qPcK4S6UtHV46mnO3ISZlhDd4EbSvFyZkPd9TIKNXlhPn\/s1077\/EHSDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGv_ay0sKhUjnWZuRrCnB2u4U0u9RTi-1s7DoqwUOKeP7o0O4XnDy-hYGUJwNo2fZjLqKXOeeA4v-NKMND9p1oqtiqvpK0RXNtbwtW821LIIOyOYKD4qLFoOWzQN1qZPZAJ_cojQ_qPcK4S6UtHV46mnO3ISZlhDd4EbSvFyZkPd9TIKNXlhPn\/s320\/EHSDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSales in December (3.78 million SAAR)\u0026nbsp;were down 1.0% from the previous month and were 6.2% below the December 2022 sales rate.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj4lSAQgJy-YHR3GRz3ZJuwEp5TgDD1c-yW2VfHDk73eNAfRpuNJj_TvJRL13-eYJuguq_ucexn1-Ihm4ehAIUPwrN7NGQO5MaK4Iq4flcqLTgHd8-gjcX8CXfJWkP2bSiJm1Wu3CdAJumpMtbgN_Vo7ETQeDT1AqvuVhluO2WdqFDN62oe5bDm\/s1108\/EHSInvDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj4lSAQgJy-YHR3GRz3ZJuwEp5TgDD1c-yW2VfHDk73eNAfRpuNJj_TvJRL13-eYJuguq_ucexn1-Ihm4ehAIUPwrN7NGQO5MaK4Iq4flcqLTgHd8-gjcX8CXfJWkP2bSiJm1Wu3CdAJumpMtbgN_Vo7ETQeDT1AqvuVhluO2WdqFDN62oe5bDm\/s320\/EHSInvDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAccording to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.00 million in December from 1.13 million the previous month.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHeadline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe\u0026nbsp;last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRlYPrwhwcyEwrQaWkE0XaTmrptUk5b1gXrhem7xMiAm9jBWG2qOPNw7ZxsMcVvhzBr7mNY6h7WP3W2v4kUilL9-I2yYjCyfI4pzcR96CiIzceW7Vp0Y6WRGE8S5tT6JVyr6ebtsI3x6VVyFLRsZvRVeXpLrQs2pgKl-gkMGcOx4saY_n0s6C1\/s1068\/EHSYoYInvDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRlYPrwhwcyEwrQaWkE0XaTmrptUk5b1gXrhem7xMiAm9jBWG2qOPNw7ZxsMcVvhzBr7mNY6h7WP3W2v4kUilL9-I2yYjCyfI4pzcR96CiIzceW7Vp0Y6WRGE8S5tT6JVyr6ebtsI3x6VVyFLRsZvRVeXpLrQs2pgKl-gkMGcOx4saY_n0s6C1\/s320\/EHSYoYInvDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E Inventory was up 4.2% year-over-year (blue) in December compared to December 2022. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMonths of supply (red) decreased to 3.2 months in December from 3.5 months the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  This was below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5592106828810158037\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5592106828810158037","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5592106828810158037"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5592106828810158037"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to.html","title":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales Since 1995"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGv_ay0sKhUjnWZuRrCnB2u4U0u9RTi-1s7DoqwUOKeP7o0O4XnDy-hYGUJwNo2fZjLqKXOeeA4v-NKMND9p1oqtiqvpK0RXNtbwtW821LIIOyOYKD4qLFoOWzQN1qZPZAJ_cojQ_qPcK4S6UtHV46mnO3ISZlhDd4EbSvFyZkPd9TIKNXlhPn\/s72-c\/EHSDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4965105829283440438"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-18T19:40:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-18T19:40:09.570-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Existing Home Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhn4EBlnUHOIM6y83Q3nupjR_TKTF_qzQGGIyI7nwO3sttOITS0T6Ty_EJkSrXmNhnz2sXRQGu5BShKr_jPvx3rigBViZoOifUdYYTSp9l021wmtRG-nxRNCe5C9mYZALHLwehv05ru6DBw61UIqy0DwIrrAaKUiZSoDxAHawdwAGx7R_li6RPP\/s394\/RatesJan182024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhn4EBlnUHOIM6y83Q3nupjR_TKTF_qzQGGIyI7nwO3sttOITS0T6Ty_EJkSrXmNhnz2sXRQGu5BShKr_jPvx3rigBViZoOifUdYYTSp9l021wmtRG-nxRNCe5C9mYZALHLwehv05ru6DBw61UIqy0DwIrrAaKUiZSoDxAHawdwAGx7R_li6RPP\/s320\/RatesJan182024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EExisting Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  The consensus is for 3.84 million SAAR, up from 3.82 million.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Preliminary for January)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4965105829283440438\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4965105829283440438","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4965105829283440438"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4965105829283440438"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/friday-existing-home-sales.html","title":"Friday: Existing Home Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhn4EBlnUHOIM6y83Q3nupjR_TKTF_qzQGGIyI7nwO3sttOITS0T6Ty_EJkSrXmNhnz2sXRQGu5BShKr_jPvx3rigBViZoOifUdYYTSp9l021wmtRG-nxRNCe5C9mYZALHLwehv05ru6DBw61UIqy0DwIrrAaKUiZSoDxAHawdwAGx7R_li6RPP\/s72-c\/RatesJan182024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1820557706419989233"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-18T16:04:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-18T16:04:00.199-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December; California Home Sales Down 7.1% YoY in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/4th-look-at-local-housing-markets-a44\"\u003E4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EHere is some more local data prior to the NAR release tomorrow.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release December existing home sales on Friday, January 19th, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 3.84 million SAAR, up from 3.82 million in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHousing economist \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home-9c1\"\u003ETom Lawler expects\u003C\/a\u003E the NAR to report sales of 3.84 million SAAR for December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjFEjrzjqniO1uD8whwzUp-AnxBxqbnPWtuLbyzpezCA4Jo3ORcCA-7GcFdz0eu1t_V8X2Bz00BJycfmJa90KcXIxCtsVe4wpXqNtAeXRdjMGJxHMvHH2ndyEowaU3qVHx245OpBLSqkfim6VZ-Ip_HsL073sPNS8FzXGBqqd8nClrRCsWHdpsp\/s680\/ClosedDec2023V4.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjFEjrzjqniO1uD8whwzUp-AnxBxqbnPWtuLbyzpezCA4Jo3ORcCA-7GcFdz0eu1t_V8X2Bz00BJycfmJa90KcXIxCtsVe4wpXqNtAeXRdjMGJxHMvHH2ndyEowaU3qVHx245OpBLSqkfim6VZ-Ip_HsL073sPNS8FzXGBqqd8nClrRCsWHdpsp\/s320\/ClosedDec2023V4.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd a table of December sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn December, sales in these markets were down 7.5%. In November, these same markets were down 6.3% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSales in almost all of these markets are down sharply compared to December 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EAnnual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSeveral local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release. \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1820557706419989233\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1820557706419989233","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1820557706419989233"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1820557706419989233"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/4th-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December; California Home Sales Down 7.1% YoY in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjFEjrzjqniO1uD8whwzUp-AnxBxqbnPWtuLbyzpezCA4Jo3ORcCA-7GcFdz0eu1t_V8X2Bz00BJycfmJa90KcXIxCtsVe4wpXqNtAeXRdjMGJxHMvHH2ndyEowaU3qVHx245OpBLSqkfim6VZ-Ip_HsL073sPNS8FzXGBqqd8nClrRCsWHdpsp\/s72-c\/ClosedDec2023V4.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2899908484394316342"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-18T15:15:00.015-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-18T15:15:00.132-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"LA Port Inbound Traffic Increased Year-over-year in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ENotes:\u003C\/b\u003E The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2016\/08\/la-area-port-traffic-mostly-unchanged.html\"\u003Enoted several years ago\u003C\/a\u003E), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast (\u003Cb\u003Erecently the drought in Panama has slowed canal traffic\u003C\/b\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nContainer traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually \u003Cb\u003Esome hints about the trade report\u003C\/b\u003E since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.portoflosangeles.org\/business\/statistics\/container-statistics\"\u003ELos Angeles\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.polb.com\/economics\/stats\/latest_teus.asp\"\u003ELong Beach\u003C\/a\u003E in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nTo remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgp19-Qog3JOQdb13__gEYcuJOgSM0Qd6dC-RzvrB9WrdmYUkkUPOJMLElIoMgeYJdieqx1TI5JpdGJl0IAlRIPtX9vcJloW6UcwFQh66xrhaoN2SDuW2-U5dDkgGXzI3Kh9rcalOI0xunf-6x-cRSYTmWYm5S1XjD3t4iyhY3xOQLICxwFGc0G\/s1032\/PortRollingDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"LA Area Port Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgp19-Qog3JOQdb13__gEYcuJOgSM0Qd6dC-RzvrB9WrdmYUkkUPOJMLElIoMgeYJdieqx1TI5JpdGJl0IAlRIPtX9vcJloW6UcwFQh66xrhaoN2SDuW2-U5dDkgGXzI3Kh9rcalOI0xunf-6x-cRSYTmWYm5S1XjD3t4iyhY3xOQLICxwFGc0G\/s320\/PortRollingDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOn a rolling 12-month basis,\u0026nbsp;inbound traffic increased 1.3% in December compared to the rolling 12 months ending in November.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; Outbound traffic increased 0.5% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEifgew4OEqzI5UW-b65DAxbpDqqnYKvIoSkrcw7Z-_gVkSrYlDDCQSUL3by9Y9yD5u3ffqVIlHfsjrbv6Z-iFTWzbxX4tYVUBxSXWc4d4bSayHUOkHF0nKIHv9B_brHLTDPrKPru6jRd8J-RQeDIdjn0mtywtwgw3dY6bfNlcIinXec8I58-Gyg\/s1033\/PortDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"LA Area Port Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEifgew4OEqzI5UW-b65DAxbpDqqnYKvIoSkrcw7Z-_gVkSrYlDDCQSUL3by9Y9yD5u3ffqVIlHfsjrbv6Z-iFTWzbxX4tYVUBxSXWc4d4bSayHUOkHF0nKIHv9B_brHLTDPrKPru6jRd8J-RQeDIdjn0mtywtwgw3dY6bfNlcIinXec8I58-Gyg\/s320\/PortDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EUsually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EImports were up 18% YoY in December\u003C\/b\u003E, and exports were up 6% YoY.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn general, it appears port traffic is returning to the pre-pandemic patterns.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2899908484394316342\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2899908484394316342","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2899908484394316342"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2899908484394316342"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/la-port-inbound-traffic-increased-year.html","title":"LA Port Inbound Traffic Increased Year-over-year in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgp19-Qog3JOQdb13__gEYcuJOgSM0Qd6dC-RzvrB9WrdmYUkkUPOJMLElIoMgeYJdieqx1TI5JpdGJl0IAlRIPtX9vcJloW6UcwFQh66xrhaoN2SDuW2-U5dDkgGXzI3Kh9rcalOI0xunf-6x-cRSYTmWYm5S1XjD3t4iyhY3xOQLICxwFGc0G\/s72-c\/PortRollingDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3160337299983320719"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-18T12:40:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-18T12:40:00.131-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 7.9% YoY; New Listings up 7.0% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003ERealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-jan-13-2023\/\"\u003EWeekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending January 13, 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EActive inventory increased, with for-sale homes 7.9% above year ago levels.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nActive listings in the past week grew by 7.9% above the previous year, the 10th straight week of annual growth. Active inventory picked up slightly compared to the previous week, diverging from the typical seasonal pattern which would suggest falling inventory until the spring market picks up in March. Should the uptick in new listings persist, inventory levels could continue to improve as hesitant buyers and sellers make their move ahead of the flurry of activity in the spring. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Cb\u003ENew listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 7.0% from one year ago.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAfter an extended period of less listing activity from sellers due to the mortgage rate lock-in effect, newly listed homes have risen above last year’s levels for the 12th week in a row. This past week, the number of newly listed homes was 7.0% higher than the same time last year. However, the pace of new listings is still expected to be below typical pre-pandemic levels. In this past week, the new listing count was still 21.3% below similar weeks in 2017 to 2020.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi3GXGZtewWb7TDYa9Ef4UhOyuzYabFtTPoKFBOXxSGj78Mvfdv9k-ne4igeA1xMisXiLqBbQ1nWTb4UhwQS6GofjrdbsC2G8LKC7RggDf9aRt48lTxfF_tufm0LaYefovQoa4MMN3ln4Ak2cF-UnYHqhlsL5Dbjsuh31LbxQMQ4pEaIoNDxc3S\/s1013\/RealtorJan182024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Realtor YoY Active Listings\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi3GXGZtewWb7TDYa9Ef4UhOyuzYabFtTPoKFBOXxSGj78Mvfdv9k-ne4igeA1xMisXiLqBbQ1nWTb4UhwQS6GofjrdbsC2G8LKC7RggDf9aRt48lTxfF_tufm0LaYefovQoa4MMN3ln4Ak2cF-UnYHqhlsL5Dbjsuh31LbxQMQ4pEaIoNDxc3S\/s320\/RealtorJan182024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003Erealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory was up year-over-year for the 10th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory is still historically very low.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENew listings really collapsed a year ago, so the YoY comparison for new listings is easier now - although new listings remain well below \"typical pre-pandemic levels\", new listings are now up YoY for the 12th consecutive week.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3160337299983320719\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3160337299983320719","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3160337299983320719"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3160337299983320719"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/realtorcom-reports-active-inventory-up.html","title":"Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 7.9% YoY; New Listings up 7.0% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi3GXGZtewWb7TDYa9Ef4UhOyuzYabFtTPoKFBOXxSGj78Mvfdv9k-ne4igeA1xMisXiLqBbQ1nWTb4UhwQS6GofjrdbsC2G8LKC7RggDf9aRt48lTxfF_tufm0LaYefovQoa4MMN3ln4Ak2cF-UnYHqhlsL5Dbjsuh31LbxQMQ4pEaIoNDxc3S\/s72-c\/RealtorJan182024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2034912347898654061"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-18T09:15:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-18T09:15:06.970-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/single-family-starts-up-year-over\"\u003ESingle Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_-iyQMhIqLUBHXf_7ecmfXmi83ZDE4DCW2xVvB_uyLVezIQLhvrDocMLrbCtHq2RaNHdqUy1uhg-sehuUpt3k1kS-k8ouS9tvfIsJSVAZ9XHdI9TpypDmFGDBI4IRsqTO6a6AyfcBaVQjJmeaEvnhYkzeUUi4YO-BCVM1mu028A2umYgBmLhL\/s944\/Starts20222023Dec.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Starts 2022 vs 2023\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_-iyQMhIqLUBHXf_7ecmfXmi83ZDE4DCW2xVvB_uyLVezIQLhvrDocMLrbCtHq2RaNHdqUy1uhg-sehuUpt3k1kS-k8ouS9tvfIsJSVAZ9XHdI9TpypDmFGDBI4IRsqTO6a6AyfcBaVQjJmeaEvnhYkzeUUi4YO-BCVM1mu028A2umYgBmLhL\/s320\/Starts20222023Dec.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ETotal starts were up 7.6% in December compared to December 2022.\u0026nbsp; And starts in 2023 were down 9.0% compared to 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nStarts were down year-over-year for 16 of the last 20 months, although starts were up year-over-year in 4 of the last 8 months.  The year-over-year comparisons will be easier in 2024.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2034912347898654061\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2034912347898654061","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2034912347898654061"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2034912347898654061"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/single-family-starts-up-year-over-year.html","title":"Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_-iyQMhIqLUBHXf_7ecmfXmi83ZDE4DCW2xVvB_uyLVezIQLhvrDocMLrbCtHq2RaNHdqUy1uhg-sehuUpt3k1kS-k8ouS9tvfIsJSVAZ9XHdI9TpypDmFGDBI4IRsqTO6a6AyfcBaVQjJmeaEvnhYkzeUUi4YO-BCVM1mu028A2umYgBmLhL\/s72-c\/Starts20222023Dec.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1156707094873030397"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-18T08:42:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-18T08:42:12.482-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 187,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nIn the week ending January 13, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 187,000\u003C\/b\u003E, a decrease of \n16,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when \nit was 182,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving \naverage was 203,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was \nrevised up by 250 from 207,750 to 208,000. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh5stXA-21xISk5GU2SyZwCp5Oc9f2IxG3Fcq2WplhX6Y3zWrmuQgZ6NeBNz643RtW9L3QdqznH0FYOmk8b-vk2DhfAAUzBRZ2UmxKDjJLhqwRqxNqxyBfzVQvG8WTarutVfl-wGIy_uUngCxHZiDido8TSblTDaL1q1_kVafAqUyNvjz_otahp\/s1080\/WeeklyClaimsJan182024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh5stXA-21xISk5GU2SyZwCp5Oc9f2IxG3Fcq2WplhX6Y3zWrmuQgZ6NeBNz643RtW9L3QdqznH0FYOmk8b-vk2DhfAAUzBRZ2UmxKDjJLhqwRqxNqxyBfzVQvG8WTarutVfl-wGIy_uUngCxHZiDido8TSblTDaL1q1_kVafAqUyNvjz_otahp\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsJan182024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 203,250.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWeekly claims were below the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1156707094873030397\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1156707094873030397","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1156707094873030397"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1156707094873030397"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_18.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 187,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh5stXA-21xISk5GU2SyZwCp5Oc9f2IxG3Fcq2WplhX6Y3zWrmuQgZ6NeBNz643RtW9L3QdqznH0FYOmk8b-vk2DhfAAUzBRZ2UmxKDjJLhqwRqxNqxyBfzVQvG8WTarutVfl-wGIy_uUngCxHZiDido8TSblTDaL1q1_kVafAqUyNvjz_otahp\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsJan182024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9122706376193893869"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-18T08:30:00.038-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-18T08:38:10.752-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Starts Decreased to 1.460 million Annual Rate in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Census Bureau: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst.pdf\"\u003EPermits, Starts and Completions\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EPrivately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,460,000\u003C\/b\u003E.  This is 4.3 percent below the revised November estimate of 1,525,000, but is 7.6 percent above the December 2022 rate of 1,357,000.  Single‐family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,027,000; this is 8.6 percent below the revised November figure of 1,124,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 417,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAn estimated 1,413,100 housing units were started in 2023. This is 9.0 percent below the 2022 figure of 1,552,600.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EBuilding Permits:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nPrivately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate\nof 1,495,000.  This is 1.9 percent above the revised November rate of 1,467,000 and is 6.1 percent above the\nDecember 2022 rate of 1,409,000.  Single‐family authorizations in December were at a rate of 994,000; this is 1.7\npercent above the revised November figure of 977,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more\nwere at a rate of 449,000 in December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAn estimated 1,469,800 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2023. This is 11.7 percent below the\n2022 figure of 1,665,100.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgMWt8qfsnxGqp3Mkj64k8IW4MSFWIUt7Pdf_ldNlierZAO2pgI5_3n_UJZ131w1TFZRcNSZHYVWGt8bfDOKFnhd_YSfdIW7gTwr8NbvJZh4LOOnSQBGJq43y6wsSBmu3JBd4h1b30F2-CICArFRqUPwGk767ZRMbRi8X6qxuSxV5QD1DGcaKae\/s1018\/StartsShortDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgMWt8qfsnxGqp3Mkj64k8IW4MSFWIUt7Pdf_ldNlierZAO2pgI5_3n_UJZ131w1TFZRcNSZHYVWGt8bfDOKFnhd_YSfdIW7gTwr8NbvJZh4LOOnSQBGJq43y6wsSBmu3JBd4h1b30F2-CICArFRqUPwGk767ZRMbRi8X6qxuSxV5QD1DGcaKae\/s320\/StartsShortDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMulti-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in December compared to November. \u0026nbsp; Multi-family starts were down 7.9% year-over-year in December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSingle-family starts (red) decreased in December and were up 15.8% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj3-ZSmoMDFf9-bXY_EhblUI4L-McAqhW4Ssgm9CLM6V1oerPnjUyw_rXPIs6r_ZLVXc2thf4e4Ed433X3o7fGkVoW4LNSfRf0emuuhScWwveYnz9kIOFP1OJZcWrdumZiKcL6rPTNIVwpiR5LbtWJXBXegeX6Mz3Y556oud_J0w3UGIfYInHjp\/s1020\/StartsDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj3-ZSmoMDFf9-bXY_EhblUI4L-McAqhW4Ssgm9CLM6V1oerPnjUyw_rXPIs6r_ZLVXc2thf4e4Ed433X3o7fGkVoW4LNSfRf0emuuhScWwveYnz9kIOFP1OJZcWrdumZiKcL6rPTNIVwpiR5LbtWJXBXegeX6Mz3Y556oud_J0w3UGIfYInHjp\/s320\/StartsDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts\u0026nbsp;since 1968. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nTotal housing starts in December were above expectations,\u003C\/b\u003E however, starts in October and November were revised down, combined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'll have more later …  "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9122706376193893869\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9122706376193893869","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9122706376193893869"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9122706376193893869"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/housing-starts-decreased-to-1460.html","title":"Housing Starts Decreased to 1.460 million Annual Rate in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgMWt8qfsnxGqp3Mkj64k8IW4MSFWIUt7Pdf_ldNlierZAO2pgI5_3n_UJZ131w1TFZRcNSZHYVWGt8bfDOKFnhd_YSfdIW7gTwr8NbvJZh4LOOnSQBGJq43y6wsSBmu3JBd4h1b30F2-CICArFRqUPwGk767ZRMbRi8X6qxuSxV5QD1DGcaKae\/s72-c\/StartsShortDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7962041714264108176"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-17T19:42:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-17T19:42:00.139-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhaCdGWBTduxSVhVLnh6gr1XWaNPh6gR7Xt6Z_vW6LQrMf8SaBk45rVdSp-y0W4Z2uir575QQlakdOSzTGzEm6JGpvdRPS5uzlWSgeQ5tctbaglLmzmrHkaqugXuueD3II5hhAmfyAR0sPPCkeZNVjofPYGrky2bZ4S6EdBJjhSF1oZwAwSEyku\/s388\/RatesJan172024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhaCdGWBTduxSVhVLnh6gr1XWaNPh6gR7Xt6Z_vW6LQrMf8SaBk45rVdSp-y0W4Z2uir575QQlakdOSzTGzEm6JGpvdRPS5uzlWSgeQ5tctbaglLmzmrHkaqugXuueD3II5hhAmfyAR0sPPCkeZNVjofPYGrky2bZ4S6EdBJjhSF1oZwAwSEyku\/s320\/RatesJan172024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 204 thousand, up from 202 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts\u003C\/b\u003E for December. The consensus is for 1.415 million SAAR, down from 1.560 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 8:30 AM, the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for January."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7962041714264108176\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7962041714264108176","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7962041714264108176"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7962041714264108176"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/thursday-housing-starts-unemployment.html","title":"Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhaCdGWBTduxSVhVLnh6gr1XWaNPh6gR7Xt6Z_vW6LQrMf8SaBk45rVdSp-y0W4Z2uir575QQlakdOSzTGzEm6JGpvdRPS5uzlWSgeQ5tctbaglLmzmrHkaqugXuueD3II5hhAmfyAR0sPPCkeZNVjofPYGrky2bZ4S6EdBJjhSF1oZwAwSEyku\/s72-c\/RatesJan172024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6399717119426499833"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-17T14:04:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-17T14:04:50.286-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home-9c1\"\u003ELawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EFrom housing economist Tom Lawler:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBased on publicly-available local realtor\/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in December, up 0.5% from November’s preliminary pace and down 4.7% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace.\u0026nbsp; Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this December’s lower business day count compared to last December’s.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nLocal realtor\/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5.0% from last December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor 2023 as a whole existing home sales as estimated by the NAR should come in at 4.089 million, the lowest annual sales pace since 1995.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6399717119426499833\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6399717119426499833","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6399717119426499833"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6399717119426499833"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html","title":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2917851624582071817"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-17T14:00:00.012-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-17T14:04:08.622-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fed's Beige Book: \"Little or no change in economic activity\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/beigebook202401-summary.htm\"\u003EFed's Beige Book\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EA majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported \u003Cb\u003Elittle or no change in economic activity\u003C\/b\u003E since the prior Beige Book period. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting expectations in most Districts and by exceeding expectations in three Districts, including in New York, which noted strong holiday spending on apparel, toys, and sporting goods. In addition, seasonal demand lifted airfreight volume from ecommerce in Richmond and credit card lending in Philadelphia. Several Districts noted increased leisure travel, and a tourism contact described New York City as bustling. Contacts from nearly all Districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity. Districts continued to note that high interest rates were limiting auto sales and real estate deals; however, the prospect of falling interest rates was cited by numerous contacts in various sectors as a source of optimism. In contrast, concerns about the office market, weakening overall demand, and the 2024 political cycle were often cited as sources of economic uncertainty. Overall, most Districts indicated that expectations of their firms for future growth were positive, had improved, or both.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSeven Districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, while the pace of job growth was described as modest to moderate in four Districts. ... Six Districts noted that their contacts had reported slight or modest price increases, and two noted moderate increases. Five Districts also noted that overall price increases had subsided to some degree from the prior period, while three others indicated no significant shift in price pressures. \u003Cb\u003EFirms in most Districts cited examples of steady or falling input prices\u003C\/b\u003E, especially in the manufacturing and construction sectors, and more discounting by auto dealers\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2917851624582071817\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2917851624582071817","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2917851624582071817"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2917851624582071817"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/feds-beige-book-little-or-no-change-in.html","title":"Fed's Beige Book: \"Little or no change in economic activity\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1158105215430698450"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-17T10:00:00.019-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-17T10:04:53.738-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in January"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 44, up from 37 last month.  Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom the NAHB: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nahb.org\/news-and-economics\/press-releases\/2024\/01\/builder-sentiment-surges-on-falling-interest-rates\"\u003EBuilder Sentiment Surges on Falling Interest Rates\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage rates well under 7% over the past month have led to a sharp increase in builder confidence to begin the new year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EBuilder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes climbed seven points to 44 in January\u003C\/b\u003E, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This second consecutive monthly increase in builder confidence closely tracks with a period of falling interest rates.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Lower interest rates improved housing affordability conditions this past month, bringing some buyers back into the market after being sidelined in the fall by higher borrowing costs,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “Single-family starts are expected to grow in 2024, adding much needed inventory to the market. However, builders will face growing challenges with building material cost and availability, as well as lot supply.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Mortgage rates have decreased by more than 110 basis points since late October per Freddie Mac, lifting the future sales expectation component in the HMI into positive territory for the first time since August,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “As home building expands in 2024, the market will see growing supply-side challenges in the form of higher prices and\/or shortages of lumber, lots and labor.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nEven as mortgage rates have fallen below 7% over the past month,\u003Cb\u003E many builders continue to reduce home prices to boost sales\u003C\/b\u003E. In January, 31% of builders reported cutting home prices, down from 36% during the previous two months and the lowest rate since last August. The average price reduction in January remained at 6%, unchanged from the previous month. Meanwhile, 62% of builders provided sales incentives of all forms in January. This share has remained stable between 60% and 62% since October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAll three of the major HMI indices posted gains in January. The HMI index charting current sales conditions increased seven points to 48, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months jumped 12 points to 57 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose five points to 29.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nLooking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased four points to 55, the South increased two points to 41, the West registered a one-point gain to 32 and the Midwest held steady at 34.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003E\nemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgNWPLbS2641SjOYQZBe4GDArJW0oT5eSgUA-axVrsjX4i0gsI6WWgtnO1eH3-WOM5I-jDB2zxC9iAemFlklb23o_fs4_zP3h-ZdpQE7zXFN3sBbLgTj-CnwXlFOVmIKTejT7deBTuk0nx9jcOmAUArAfYT-RxujjeK7Tyuq7Z3DVl81_NLreP_\/s1074\/NAHBJan2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"NAHB HMI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgNWPLbS2641SjOYQZBe4GDArJW0oT5eSgUA-axVrsjX4i0gsI6WWgtnO1eH3-WOM5I-jDB2zxC9iAemFlklb23o_fs4_zP3h-ZdpQE7zXFN3sBbLgTj-CnwXlFOVmIKTejT7deBTuk0nx9jcOmAUArAfYT-RxujjeK7Tyuq7Z3DVl81_NLreP_\/s320\/NAHBJan2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: left; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was above the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1158105215430698450\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1158105215430698450","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1158105215430698450"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1158105215430698450"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/nahb-builder-confidence-increased-in.html","title":"NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in January"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgNWPLbS2641SjOYQZBe4GDArJW0oT5eSgUA-axVrsjX4i0gsI6WWgtnO1eH3-WOM5I-jDB2zxC9iAemFlklb23o_fs4_zP3h-ZdpQE7zXFN3sBbLgTj-CnwXlFOVmIKTejT7deBTuk0nx9jcOmAUArAfYT-RxujjeK7Tyuq7Z3DVl81_NLreP_\/s72-c\/NAHBJan2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4353649489285066138"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-17T09:15:00.014-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-17T09:21:22.276-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/g17\/Current\/default.htm\"\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIndustrial production moved up 0.1 percent in December\u003C\/b\u003E and declined 3.1 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in December after increasing 0.2 percent in November. The index for utilities declined 1.0 percent in December, while the index for mining rose 0.9 percent. At 102.5 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in December was 1 percent above its year-earlier level. \u003Cb\u003ECapacity utilization was unchanged in December at 78.6 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, a rate that is 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2022) average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh94j_tca5HwSZgWCzLT8L4rmt-d4pql0HVhiWAUvxcRkF3QrzwG5j3LHoMd1Vi5xzRarANh14ouLvmzGoqrDzejMMAWa_zaSGmeYUvdG6LavkpEzpGROcXW6Y1_I9D2-kYJUR2FWhCeVbi3-4ya6v2QCXElszcXCa2uHh2_LFwr7u-W9HexST7\/s1008\/CapUDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Capacity Utilization\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh94j_tca5HwSZgWCzLT8L4rmt-d4pql0HVhiWAUvxcRkF3QrzwG5j3LHoMd1Vi5xzRarANh14ouLvmzGoqrDzejMMAWa_zaSGmeYUvdG6LavkpEzpGROcXW6Y1_I9D2-kYJUR2FWhCeVbi3-4ya6v2QCXElszcXCa2uHh2_LFwr7u-W9HexST7\/s320\/CapUDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCapacity utilization at 78.6% is 1.1% below the average from 1972 to 2022.\u0026nbsp; This was at consensus expectations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjCZ9PVSeYITPYS5PPHTSXQkM1igHWneg2TVhDZRA-5m8UCdtGjFogFp_TWrJtzwJbJn1E8Y6ZpFWpWGaFpT3lPJaUb0gaiyprdH-_0vhc7DRltEzRuy9b26Pxe2k0JjeEuefE6H5poN8Qk1Bq50TJTRgBpWVMKu1dVA7S37J7qDQ-iW9Hc8iYQ\/s1006\/IPDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjCZ9PVSeYITPYS5PPHTSXQkM1igHWneg2TVhDZRA-5m8UCdtGjFogFp_TWrJtzwJbJn1E8Y6ZpFWpWGaFpT3lPJaUb0gaiyprdH-_0vhc7DRltEzRuy9b26Pxe2k0JjeEuefE6H5poN8Qk1Bq50TJTRgBpWVMKu1dVA7S37J7qDQ-iW9Hc8iYQ\/s320\/IPDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E  \nThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIndustrial production increased to 102.7.  This is above the pre-pandemic level.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIndustrial production was above consensus expectations.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4353649489285066138\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4353649489285066138","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4353649489285066138"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4353649489285066138"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/industrial-production-increased-01-in.html","title":"Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh94j_tca5HwSZgWCzLT8L4rmt-d4pql0HVhiWAUvxcRkF3QrzwG5j3LHoMd1Vi5xzRarANh14ouLvmzGoqrDzejMMAWa_zaSGmeYUvdG6LavkpEzpGROcXW6Y1_I9D2-kYJUR2FWhCeVbi3-4ya6v2QCXElszcXCa2uHh2_LFwr7u-W9HexST7\/s72-c\/CapUDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6676408115745525294"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-17T08:30:00.026-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-17T08:38:40.230-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.6 percent from December 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom the Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/retail\/sales.html\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nAdvance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.9 billion, \u003Cb\u003Eup 0.6 percent from the previous month\u003C\/b\u003E, and up 5.6 percent above December 2022. Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 were up 3.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2022. ... The October 2023 to November 2023 percent change was unrevised from up 0.3 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJmXdieYPpu9e-GMtfSyVJjjMWemfVRdUFppm1cevCK_eIPUce18bdx-fKJ5XUS_FEBkxDFHD-MJj4EhaEHx1MDvH8ZcKdML0L9Ip3sCAw06ver67neihToPLJO6AS00ENvuMoG27H4I7AAwp4XuCrFZKgkxe3iIHaD1ha9Qu54GsZYLFxa4gm\/s1043\/RetailDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJmXdieYPpu9e-GMtfSyVJjjMWemfVRdUFppm1cevCK_eIPUce18bdx-fKJ5XUS_FEBkxDFHD-MJj4EhaEHx1MDvH8ZcKdML0L9Ip3sCAw06ver67neihToPLJO6AS00ENvuMoG27H4I7AAwp4XuCrFZKgkxe3iIHaD1ha9Qu54GsZYLFxa4gm\/s320\/RetailDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nRetail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.7% in December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe\u0026nbsp;second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nRetail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 6.5% on a YoY basis.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjzVW5i-Hr6N5a3HGy0gR8oM3VDMYxpEeO6FpGDAz7K_TSH9lqfK80qMiJgPagJllCVCm5PnOXwv5SkTaNuQDKMdTvh3DsGnqILwTdIEZbzM_Y42i_2dOgh21QQKr5pOcZe4UHqIKxdKQjMZ7Vjk0ayW3jG4PCqvGHoF7Xm-n2KOb40CaG6nJuT\/s979\/RetailYoYDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change in Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjzVW5i-Hr6N5a3HGy0gR8oM3VDMYxpEeO6FpGDAz7K_TSH9lqfK80qMiJgPagJllCVCm5PnOXwv5SkTaNuQDKMdTvh3DsGnqILwTdIEZbzM_Y42i_2dOgh21QQKr5pOcZe4UHqIKxdKQjMZ7Vjk0ayW3jG4PCqvGHoF7Xm-n2KOb40CaG6nJuT\/s320\/RetailYoYDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \nThe increase in sales in December was above expectations, and sales in October and November were mostly unrevised (combined)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6676408115745525294\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6676408115745525294","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6676408115745525294"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6676408115745525294"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/retail-sales-increased-06-in-december.html","title":"Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJmXdieYPpu9e-GMtfSyVJjjMWemfVRdUFppm1cevCK_eIPUce18bdx-fKJ5XUS_FEBkxDFHD-MJj4EhaEHx1MDvH8ZcKdML0L9Ip3sCAw06ver67neihToPLJO6AS00ENvuMoG27H4I7AAwp4XuCrFZKgkxe3iIHaD1ha9Qu54GsZYLFxa4gm\/s72-c\/RetailDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4271940593771026528"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-17T07:00:00.018-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-17T07:00:00.239-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications increased 10.4 percent from one \nweek earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage \nApplications Survey for the week ending January 12, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment to \naccount for the New Year’s holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 10.4 percent on \na seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 26\npercent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous \nweek and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase \nIndex increased 9 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 28 percent\ncompared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E20 percent lower than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Mortgage rates declined across all loan types as Treasury yields moved lower last week on incoming \ninflation data, which helped to support a rise in mortgage applications. The 30-year fixed rate decreased \nsix basis points to 6.75 percent, the lowest rate in three weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and \nDeputy Chief Economist. “Compared to a holiday-adjusted week, both purchase and refinance \napplications were up, and the increases were heavily driven by the conventional market. Although \npurchase activity is lagging year-ago levels, refinance applications have improved from their recent low \npoint and have been showing year-over-year gains, albeit at low levels. If rates continue to ease, MBA is \ncautiously optimistic that home purchases will pick up in the coming months.”\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances \n($726,200 or less) decreased to 6.75 percent from 6.81 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.61\n(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh2QYt8NoCfqIuKzlLqYYfSGbk34De44farAlErh0nMgp_kQ-STJ6QvyIWbNZi2I1KyBmyq6Z8yT9gDO5H_OTzMZTKiT2VCa1AOPuq3pWlPpTx9R9Hp_K6edK3do_MWgidTCGJeVB-oOxXiFnXxNhIPUXqG_su2PBNjIyJ8afZnFZuPPbVRPQWI\/s1086\/MBSAJan172024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh2QYt8NoCfqIuKzlLqYYfSGbk34De44farAlErh0nMgp_kQ-STJ6QvyIWbNZi2I1KyBmyq6Z8yT9gDO5H_OTzMZTKiT2VCa1AOPuq3pWlPpTx9R9Hp_K6edK3do_MWgidTCGJeVB-oOxXiFnXxNhIPUXqG_su2PBNjIyJ8afZnFZuPPbVRPQWI\/s320\/MBSAJan172024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 20% year-over-year unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPurchase application activity is up from the lows in late October and early November, but still close to the lowest levels during the housing bust.\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEic7_usXLZJbg5d6RTzigLiaDrHWk5l4FqVKs7Ey8VauVs2vWQsGBZpgmH3mqlxC-HdkJGk-p69E42EUj_91EawwKrV7OXvp2XoKe-b8KtfQUve6PM9wwE3HodOoynuGHus1XyWR31RqC9YtaQt1_v8EssSJV_Vfmb3C3h_oEkC3nu1k0Su54g_\/s1088\/MBARefiJan172024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEic7_usXLZJbg5d6RTzigLiaDrHWk5l4FqVKs7Ey8VauVs2vWQsGBZpgmH3mqlxC-HdkJGk-p69E42EUj_91EawwKrV7OXvp2XoKe-b8KtfQUve6PM9wwE3HodOoynuGHus1XyWR31RqC9YtaQt1_v8EssSJV_Vfmb3C3h_oEkC3nu1k0Su54g_\/s320\/MBARefiJan172024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and even with some recent increases, activity is barely off the bottom.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4271940593771026528\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4271940593771026528","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4271940593771026528"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4271940593771026528"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/mba-mortgage-applications-increased-in_0157726491.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh2QYt8NoCfqIuKzlLqYYfSGbk34De44farAlErh0nMgp_kQ-STJ6QvyIWbNZi2I1KyBmyq6Z8yT9gDO5H_OTzMZTKiT2VCa1AOPuq3pWlPpTx9R9Hp_K6edK3do_MWgidTCGJeVB-oOxXiFnXxNhIPUXqG_su2PBNjIyJ8afZnFZuPPbVRPQWI\/s72-c\/MBSAJan172024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4170418626726834402"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-16T20:03:00.011-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-16T20:03:00.124-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Beige Book"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEikY-hpRDHO8vJI23Z3mCJGMqRnSST1iEXypu5KU6c3twKUGAhamj8xrW8BLT3D97TP79YvZZ-mlsdO52yba_x_QByqk-kVxVBjoaD2wNsCR0HNBpb7wChnrnjnwNNt0z905r3EKgPK0eCJ2n0VCckXQtgDm5I7rtv44t8pZUhfk70i4laxWZ5c\/s387\/RatesJan162024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEikY-hpRDHO8vJI23Z3mCJGMqRnSST1iEXypu5KU6c3twKUGAhamj8xrW8BLT3D97TP79YvZZ-mlsdO52yba_x_QByqk-kVxVBjoaD2wNsCR0HNBpb7wChnrnjnwNNt0z905r3EKgPK0eCJ2n0VCckXQtgDm5I7rtv44t8pZUhfk70i4laxWZ5c\/s320\/RatesJan162024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003EFrom Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-01162024\"\u003EMortgage Rates Start The Week Back Near Recent Highs\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E[R]ates were near 8% when the Nov\/Dec rally began and fell into the 6.6s by December 14th.  They're currently still well under 7%, meaning that a vast majority of the improvement has been retained despite the modest erosion. [\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/\"\u003E30 year fixed 6.77%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003ERetail sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December is scheduled to be released. \u0026nbsp;The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release \u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/b\u003E for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM, The January \u003Cb\u003ENAHB homebuilder survey\u003C\/b\u003E. The consensus is for a reading of 38, up from 37 in December. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 2:00 PM, the \u003Cb\u003EFederal Reserve Beige Book\u003C\/b\u003E, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4170418626726834402\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4170418626726834402","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4170418626726834402"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4170418626726834402"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/wednesday-retail-sales-industrial.html","title":"Wednesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey, Beige Book"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEikY-hpRDHO8vJI23Z3mCJGMqRnSST1iEXypu5KU6c3twKUGAhamj8xrW8BLT3D97TP79YvZZ-mlsdO52yba_x_QByqk-kVxVBjoaD2wNsCR0HNBpb7wChnrnjnwNNt0z905r3EKgPK0eCJ2n0VCckXQtgDm5I7rtv44t8pZUhfk70i4laxWZ5c\/s72-c\/RatesJan162024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6411974689031187511"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-16T12:59:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-16T12:59:29.307-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-3cd\"\u003E3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ENOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is the third look at several local markets in December. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nNOTE:\u003C\/b\u003E The NAR is scheduled to report December existing home sales on Friday, January 19th.  The consensus is for 3.84 million SAAR, up from 3.82 million in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhnjtp1IITzb3CUdOL8gvJNEW-sxYDJx6WHPQpd5IyIw-qIgvJkUwR1RhcK4qeZ_Nt-aYHMSKc_JG1KB3XbLqXTpQT173JQFf92j6Sn5te10JLpA174AKam0h_GC1lVZIYIsq6d2PSRK1atS1-WxRUaABzd-NtX8SE7TIwj-7CD5wMrBqUQHgCj\/s604\/ClosedDec2023V3.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhnjtp1IITzb3CUdOL8gvJNEW-sxYDJx6WHPQpd5IyIw-qIgvJkUwR1RhcK4qeZ_Nt-aYHMSKc_JG1KB3XbLqXTpQT173JQFf92j6Sn5te10JLpA174AKam0h_GC1lVZIYIsq6d2PSRK1atS1-WxRUaABzd-NtX8SE7TIwj-7CD5wMrBqUQHgCj\/s320\/ClosedDec2023V3.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd a table of December sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn December, sales in these markets were down 7.5%. In November, these same markets were down 5.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSales in almost all of these markets are down sharply compared to December 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EAnnual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMore local markets to come! \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6411974689031187511\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6411974689031187511","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6411974689031187511"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6411974689031187511"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhnjtp1IITzb3CUdOL8gvJNEW-sxYDJx6WHPQpd5IyIw-qIgvJkUwR1RhcK4qeZ_Nt-aYHMSKc_JG1KB3XbLqXTpQT173JQFf92j6Sn5te10JLpA174AKam0h_GC1lVZIYIsq6d2PSRK1atS1-WxRUaABzd-NtX8SE7TIwj-7CD5wMrBqUQHgCj\/s72-c\/ClosedDec2023V3.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8231146844413933879"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-16T10:45:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-16T10:45:24.019-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: \"Office properties drove increase\" in Q4 Commercial Real Estate Delinquencies"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-and-research\/newsroom\/news\/2024\/01\/16\/delinquency-rates-for-commercial-properties-increased-in-fourth-quarter-2023\"\u003EDelinquency Rates for Commercial Properties Increased in Fourth-Quarter 2023\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EDelinquency rates for mortgages backed by commercial properties increased during the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest commercial real estate finance (CREF) Loan Performance Survey.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\"Ongoing challenges in commercial real estate markets pushed the delinquency rate on CRE-backed loans higher in the final three months of 2023,\" said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Head of Commercial Real Estate Research. \"\u003Cb\u003EDelinquency rates jumped to 6.5 percent of balances for loans backed by office properties and to 6.1 percent for lodging-backed loans\u003C\/b\u003E. Delinquencies for loans backed by retail properties remain elevated from the onset of the pandemic but were unchanged during the quarter. Delinquency rates for multifamily and industrial property loans both increased marginally but remain much lower.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWoodwell continued, “Long-term interest rates have come down from their highs of last year, which should provide some relief to some loans, but many properties and loans still face higher rates, uncertainty about property values and – for some properties – changes in fundamentals. Each loan and property faces a different set of circumstances, which will come into play as the market works through loans that mature this year.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ci\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiphdYKQ2jtPZcFPkDIJQeV7kW9UzbZJBp9MfbUd4upjcfr_NQTNGjPAfuP6Q1h2mRzXo5lSt4tlFYohfC_N6y4GoV741FUStpaHuKwhhIQgLHnrBxF58zozOVNXJUchMuJMk1Fhef5kGBA-VOLoyEVxvn8dq85QdBO3gy98V7Ten_2pu7aLgMA\/s586\/MBACREQ42023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"CRE Delinquency Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiphdYKQ2jtPZcFPkDIJQeV7kW9UzbZJBp9MfbUd4upjcfr_NQTNGjPAfuP6Q1h2mRzXo5lSt4tlFYohfC_N6y4GoV741FUStpaHuKwhhIQgLHnrBxF58zozOVNXJUchMuJMk1Fhef5kGBA-VOLoyEVxvn8dq85QdBO3gy98V7Ten_2pu7aLgMA\/s320\/MBACREQ42023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ELoans backed by office properties drove the increase.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 6.5% of the balance of office property loan balances were 30 days or more days delinquent, up from 5.1% at the end of last quarter.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 6.1% of the balance of lodging loans were delinquent, up from 4.9%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 5.0% of retail balances were delinquent, flat from the previous quarter.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 1.2% of multifamily balances were delinquent, up from 0.9%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 0.9% of the balance of industrial property loans were delinquent, up from 0.6%.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8231146844413933879\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8231146844413933879","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8231146844413933879"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8231146844413933879"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/mba-office-properties-drove-increase-in.html","title":"MBA: \"Office properties drove increase\" in Q4 Commercial Real Estate Delinquencies"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiphdYKQ2jtPZcFPkDIJQeV7kW9UzbZJBp9MfbUd4upjcfr_NQTNGjPAfuP6Q1h2mRzXo5lSt4tlFYohfC_N6y4GoV741FUStpaHuKwhhIQgLHnrBxF58zozOVNXJUchMuJMk1Fhef5kGBA-VOLoyEVxvn8dq85QdBO3gy98V7Ten_2pu7aLgMA\/s72-c\/MBACREQ42023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5697751293744454119"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-16T08:17:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-16T08:17:00.136-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Annual Light Vehicle Sales Increase 12% in 2023; Heavy Trucks Sales up 6% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier the BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December.  The BEA estimates sales of 15.83 million SAAR in December 2023 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 3.3% from the November sales rate, and up 16.8% from December 2022.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhc4nZDAbVh1IFXNsKmLFIaz55clzC4saauXB_TonYmRtgcbKY78bU2EINzHvQKpo8dCmz1lEb0RMLrKNpPt3wR8I4JMUI40WcXlreds35OVQiZr8PEpCY2CAbCEIUP5_9103Ys2KudYxCbvPDm5JAELPBUEUSZGrBuW6pIljIrnrHRu01kv6QW\/s1036\/VSAnnual2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Annual Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhc4nZDAbVh1IFXNsKmLFIaz55clzC4saauXB_TonYmRtgcbKY78bU2EINzHvQKpo8dCmz1lEb0RMLrKNpPt3wR8I4JMUI40WcXlreds35OVQiZr8PEpCY2CAbCEIUP5_9103Ys2KudYxCbvPDm5JAELPBUEUSZGrBuW6pIljIrnrHRu01kv6QW\/s320\/VSAnnual2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph shows annual sales since 1976.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSales in 2020 were impacted by the pandemic, and then sales rebounded slightly in 2021.\u0026nbsp; However, sales in 2022 were impacted significantly by supply chain disruptions.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn 2023, the supply issues subsided, and sales increased even with much higher lending rates.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThis suggests vehicle sales might increase further in 2024 as rates decline.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \nThe second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHeavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.\u0026nbsp; Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgcuEFV7v301Mducl6aEx96KSgK6GPoukj37Tp4EF7Eg9LNh0ndXzZAUf6tWujYjcGXcjmAT5VppmAwNTJ3IEQEUgVX_wQXdBHOl2Op_U3ulNMflDnjqgJaGsygyj3yBhTjW6J-fLKhyBNAMapQzRij3LOxltI4jvFy0EUdGK6OtW-k4-zznVj6\/s1068\/HeavyDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Heavy Truck Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgcuEFV7v301Mducl6aEx96KSgK6GPoukj37Tp4EF7Eg9LNh0ndXzZAUf6tWujYjcGXcjmAT5VppmAwNTJ3IEQEUgVX_wQXdBHOl2Op_U3ulNMflDnjqgJaGsygyj3yBhTjW6J-fLKhyBNAMapQzRij3LOxltI4jvFy0EUdGK6OtW-k4-zznVj6\/s320\/HeavyDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\nNote: \"Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.\"\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHeavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHeavy truck sales were at 450 thousand SAAR in December, down from 478 thousand in November.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn annual basis, sales in 2023 were at 506 thousand, up 6.4% from 476 thousand in 2022.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EUsually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Sales were decent in December.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5697751293744454119\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5697751293744454119","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5697751293744454119"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5697751293744454119"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/annual-light-vehicle-sales-increase-12.html","title":"Annual Light Vehicle Sales Increase 12% in 2023; Heavy Trucks Sales up 6% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhc4nZDAbVh1IFXNsKmLFIaz55clzC4saauXB_TonYmRtgcbKY78bU2EINzHvQKpo8dCmz1lEb0RMLrKNpPt3wR8I4JMUI40WcXlreds35OVQiZr8PEpCY2CAbCEIUP5_9103Ys2KudYxCbvPDm5JAELPBUEUSZGrBuW6pIljIrnrHRu01kv6QW\/s72-c\/VSAnnual2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5166745294373048044"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-15T19:11:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-15T19:11:02.961-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/schedule-for-week-of-january-14-2024.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of January 14, 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nTuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed \u003Cb\u003EEmpire State manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for January.  The consensus is for a reading of -7.1, up from -14.5.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 are down 8 and DOW futures are down 57 (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOil prices were down over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $72.48 per barrel and Brent at $78.15 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $80, and Brent was at $83 - so \u003Cb\u003EWTI oil prices were down 10% year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $3.05 per gallon.  A year ago, prices were at $3.28 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.23 year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5166745294373048044\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5166745294373048044","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5166745294373048044"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5166745294373048044"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/tuesday-ny-fed-mfg.html","title":"Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});