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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"28077"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7321280277492558384"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-02T15:47:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-02T15:47:40.109-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"July 2nd COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"This \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal doses administered: 328,809,470, as of a week ago 321,199,379.  \u003Cb\u003EAverage doses last week: 1.09 million per day.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYesterday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent over 18,\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne Dose\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E65.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated\u003Cbr \/\u003E(millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E156.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E155.9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E151.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥160\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3,4🚩\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,878\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,528\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,733\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,015\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,974\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,235\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3,4\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E214\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E205\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E226\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E America's Goal by July 4th,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E4\u003C\/sup\u003ECases and Deaths updated Mon - Fri\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing week-over-week\u003Cbr \/\u003E    \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 18 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey,\u0026nbsp; Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Maryland, California,\u0026nbsp;Washington, New Hampshire,\u0026nbsp;New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware,\u0026nbsp;Minnesota and D.C. are all over 70%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up are Colorado at 69.9%, Oregon at 69.8%,\u0026nbsp;Wisconsin at 65.5%, Nebraska at 65.3%, Florida at 64.7%, South Dakota at 64.3%, and Utah at 64.3%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ff5ToF9nmiU\/YN9Zf25TLuI\/AAAAAAAA6GM\/P2F-NDOt9GMlASLRtT1i0wNqqiVYulMZwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1409\/COVIDCasesJuly22021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ff5ToF9nmiU\/YN9Zf25TLuI\/AAAAAAAA6GM\/P2F-NDOt9GMlASLRtT1i0wNqqiVYulMZwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesJuly22021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7321280277492558384\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7321280277492558384","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7321280277492558384"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7321280277492558384"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/july-2nd-covid-19-new-cases.html","title":"July 2nd COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ff5ToF9nmiU\/YN9Zf25TLuI\/AAAAAAAA6GM\/P2F-NDOt9GMlASLRtT1i0wNqqiVYulMZwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesJuly22021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1456950115188916036"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-02T13:59:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-02T13:59:17.642-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Trade Deficit Increased to $71.2 Billion in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Department of Commerce \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/foreign-trade\/Press-Release\/current_press_release\/ft900.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.2 billion in May, up $2.2 billion from $69.1 billion in April, revised.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMay exports were $206.0 billion, $1.3 billion more than April exports. May imports were $277.3 billion, $3.5 billion more than April imports.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-S5G8MaFXIqw\/YN9S4rhTPoI\/AAAAAAAA6F8\/KxXhnv6aHJM8nhLJIBpIY7nETgDpJtldwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s942\/TradeMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Exports Imports\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-S5G8MaFXIqw\/YN9S4rhTPoI\/AAAAAAAA6F8\/KxXhnv6aHJM8nhLJIBpIY7nETgDpJtldwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TradeMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExports and imports increased in May. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExports are up 41% compared to May 2020; imports are up 38% compared to May 2020.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBoth imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports\u0026nbsp; more than exports),\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-L6z7216ULko\/YN9TboE9pJI\/AAAAAAAA6GE\/ZoEP11Jb_KY1xCH-rz5sxpuFqFPUgedKwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1005\/TradeDeficitMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Deficit\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-L6z7216ULko\/YN9TboE9pJI\/AAAAAAAA6GE\/ZoEP11Jb_KY1xCH-rz5sxpuFqFPUgedKwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TradeDeficitMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe trade deficit with China decreased to $26.3 billion in May, from $26.9 billion in May 2020.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1456950115188916036\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1456950115188916036","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1456950115188916036"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1456950115188916036"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/trade-deficit-increased-to-712-billion.html","title":"Trade Deficit Increased to $71.2 Billion in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-S5G8MaFXIqw\/YN9S4rhTPoI\/AAAAAAAA6F8\/KxXhnv6aHJM8nhLJIBpIY7nETgDpJtldwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/TradeMay2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6202647343395179432"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-02T13:34:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-02T13:34:15.389-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q2 GDP Forecasts: Revised Down, under 10%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe construction spending data sliced another 0.5pp from \u003Cb\u003E2Q GDP tracking, leaving us at a still impressive 9.5% qoq saar\u003C\/b\u003E.  [July 2 estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman Sachs: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe left our \u003Cb\u003EQ2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +8.5% (qoq ar)\u003C\/b\u003E. [July 2 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/policy\/nowcast.html\"\u003ENY Fed Nowcasting Report\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at \u003Cb\u003E3.2% for 2021:Q2\u003C\/b\u003E and 3.9% for 2021:Q3. [July 2 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the \u003Cb\u003Esecond quarter of 2021 is 7.8 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on July 2, down from 8.6 percent on July 1.  [July 2 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6202647343395179432\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6202647343395179432","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6202647343395179432"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6202647343395179432"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/q2-gdp-forecasts-revised-down-under-10.html","title":"Q2 GDP Forecasts: Revised Down, under 10%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4668074248328048782"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-02T11:14:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-02T11:14:58.421-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"June Vehicles Sales Decreased Sharply to 15.36 Million SAAR"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for June this morning.  The BEA estimates sales of 15.36 million SAAR in June 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 9.8% from the May sales rate, and up 18% from June 2020.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was well below the consensus estimate of 17.1 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-exguQi3Vcgc\/YN8cyz5uB_I\/AAAAAAAA6Fw\/8gyoJihl3GMpDIKTubRkF_B_XKS055tUQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s966\/VSShortjune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-exguQi3Vcgc\/YN8cyz5uB_I\/AAAAAAAA6Fw\/8gyoJihl3GMpDIKTubRkF_B_XKS055tUQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/VSShortjune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for June (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESince April 2020, sales have increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESales-to-date are down 1.3% compared to the same period in 2019.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6RQRMpAmOB8\/YN8cv9vfktI\/AAAAAAAA6Fs\/30RB9CHj19oivKsHir1zoTCuQMTJH31BgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1055\/VSJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6RQRMpAmOB8\/YN8cv9vfktI\/AAAAAAAA6Fs\/30RB9CHj19oivKsHir1zoTCuQMTJH31BgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/VSJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 15.36 million SAAR.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESales in June were likely impacted by supply issues.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4668074248328048782\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4668074248328048782","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4668074248328048782"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4668074248328048782"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/june-vehicles-sales-decreased-sharply.html","title":"June Vehicles Sales Decreased Sharply to 15.36 Million SAAR"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-exguQi3Vcgc\/YN8cyz5uB_I\/AAAAAAAA6Fw\/8gyoJihl3GMpDIKTubRkF_B_XKS055tUQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/VSShortjune2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-110493554075456118"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-02T09:51:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-02T09:51:38.102-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on June Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;However, the participation rate was unchanged and the unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.9%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELeisure and hospitality gained 343 thousand jobs.\u0026nbsp; In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 2.2 million jobs since February 2020.\u0026nbsp; So leisure and hospitality has now added back almost 73% of the jobs lost in March and April 2020.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EConstruction employment declined 7 thousand in June, and manufacturing added 15 thousand jobs.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENOTE:\u003C\/b\u003E State and Local education added 230 thousand jobs, seasonally adjusted.\u0026nbsp; But this is a seasonal quirk - there were actually 413 thousand education jobs lost in June NSA, but that was fewer than normal for June, so seasonally adjusted this showed a gain.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEarlier: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/june-employment-report-850-thousand.html\"\u003EJune Employment Report: 850 Thousand Jobs, 5.9% Unemployment Rate\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn June, the year-over-year employment change was 7.919 million jobs.  This turned positive in April due to the sharp jobs losses in April 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPermanent Job Losers\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-V5N0eiX8M84\/YN8VJ4jsn6I\/AAAAAAAA6FM\/bXbVXuMkeMgDD6X4Ytxx4lOFb1MpZLYSACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1043\/PermanentJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-V5N0eiX8M84\/YN8VJ4jsn6I\/AAAAAAAA6FM\/bXbVXuMkeMgDD6X4Ytxx4lOFb1MpZLYSACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PermanentJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today.  (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn June, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 3.187 million from 3.234 million in May.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThese jobs will likely be the hardest to recover.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_DkS_afijH0\/YN8WeLiB11I\/AAAAAAAA6FU\/X6SQukfdwcIwCvOtKY3MSetDhX6JJVMGwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1063\/EmployPop2554June2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_DkS_afijH0\/YN8WeLiB11I\/AAAAAAAA6FU\/X6SQukfdwcIwCvOtKY3MSetDhX6JJVMGwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployPop2554June2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ESince the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe prime working age will be key as the economy recovers.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 25 to 54 participation rate increased in June to 81.7% from 81.3% in May, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 77.2% from 77.1% in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPart Time for Economic Reasons\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-XmMtKrmHdgo\/YN8YC3EXYLI\/AAAAAAAA6Fc\/VwD42fwGSaI1p3RXIpX5UrG1hvGjDgsyACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1020\/PartTimeJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Part Time Workers\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-XmMtKrmHdgo\/YN8YC3EXYLI\/AAAAAAAA6Fc\/VwD42fwGSaI1p3RXIpX5UrG1hvGjDgsyACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PartTimeJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFrom the BLS \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"\u003Ci\u003EThe number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 644,000 to 4.6 million in June. This decline reflected a drop in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions. The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons is up by 229,000 since February 2020. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.627 million from 5.271 million in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese workers are included in the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.t15.htm\"\u003Ealternate measure\u003C\/a\u003E of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 9.8% from 10.2% in May.  This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994 and \u003Cb\u003Eclose to pre-recession lows\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EUnemployed over 26 Weeks\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tsytYxUCStU\/YN8Y3xUqkzI\/AAAAAAAA6Fk\/7tLd7uF-fjsLXj5hrhIXVv7TAomvCZg5ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1021\/Unemploy26June2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Unemployed Over 26 Weeks\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tsytYxUCStU\/YN8Y3xUqkzI\/AAAAAAAA6Fk\/7tLd7uF-fjsLXj5hrhIXVv7TAomvCZg5ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/Unemploy26June2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the BLS, there are 3.985 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 3.752\u0026nbsp;million in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis does not include all the people that left the labor force.  This will be a key measure to follow during the recovery.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESummary:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe headline monthly jobs number was above expectations, and the previous two months were revised up by 15,000 combined.\u0026nbsp; However, the headline unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.9%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere was a sharp decline in part time workers (for economic reasons), but the number of permanent job losers - and the long term unemployed - remain high.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/110493554075456118\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=110493554075456118","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/110493554075456118"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/110493554075456118"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/comments-on-june-employment-report.html","title":"Comments on June Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-V5N0eiX8M84\/YN8VJ4jsn6I\/AAAAAAAA6FM\/bXbVXuMkeMgDD6X4Ytxx4lOFb1MpZLYSACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/PermanentJune2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-518378758043959753"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-02T08:42:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-02T08:42:23.749-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"June Employment Report: 850 Thousand Jobs, 5.9% Unemployment Rate"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003EBLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETotal nonfarm payroll employment rose by 850,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.9 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade, and other services.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 9,000, from +278,000 to +269,000, and the change for May was revised up by 24,000, from +559,000 to +583,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 15,000 higher than previously reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-J-KdbECbA98\/YN8HrAWGgjI\/AAAAAAAA6Ek\/_72VoWf6OrIXR1T-vNUZtHExntYh2oJjgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1128\/EmployYoyJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-J-KdbECbA98\/YN8HrAWGgjI\/AAAAAAAA6Ek\/_72VoWf6OrIXR1T-vNUZtHExntYh2oJjgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployYoyJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn June, the year-over-year change was 7.919 million jobs.\u0026nbsp; This was up significantly - since employment collapsed in April 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal payrolls increased by 850 thousand in June.\u0026nbsp; Private payrolls increased by 662 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPayrolls for April and May were revised up 15 thousand, combined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-URUETvyjHbU\/YN8IbbbO34I\/AAAAAAAA6E0\/wzY_2i0bSB0HEmn2bBTzm1VX99sXkSrogCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1105\/EmployRecessionJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-URUETvyjHbU\/YN8IbbbO34I\/AAAAAAAA6E0\/wzY_2i0bSB0HEmn2bBTzm1VX99sXkSrogCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployRecessionJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the \"Great Recession\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6v89uB2d5dQ\/YN8JOWfvcpI\/AAAAAAAA6E8\/SV5psmVtjeEOK88HDbIssrTkb7gXi_ungCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1060\/EmployPopJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6v89uB2d5dQ\/YN8JOWfvcpI\/AAAAAAAA6E8\/SV5psmVtjeEOK88HDbIssrTkb7gXi_ungCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployPopJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.6% in June, from 61.6% in May. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 58.0% from 58.0% (black line).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-85Ru6S7MEAU\/YN8JRqGKrII\/AAAAAAAA6FA\/xkJKZumdHxEohxLE4ccuV-fiOQTwM9rvwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1011\/UnemployJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"unemployment rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-85Ru6S7MEAU\/YN8JRqGKrII\/AAAAAAAA6FA\/xkJKZumdHxEohxLE4ccuV-fiOQTwM9rvwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/UnemployJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe unemployment rate increased in June to 5.9% from 5.8% in May. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was above consensus expectations, and April and May were revised up by 15,000 combined.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EI'll have more later ...\u003C\/div\u003E  "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/518378758043959753\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=518378758043959753","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/518378758043959753"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/518378758043959753"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/june-employment-report-850-thousand.html","title":"June Employment Report: 850 Thousand Jobs, 5.9% Unemployment Rate"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-J-KdbECbA98\/YN8HrAWGgjI\/AAAAAAAA6Ek\/_72VoWf6OrIXR1T-vNUZtHExntYh2oJjgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EmployYoyJune2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1898603635585320454"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-02T08:12:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-02T08:12:16.184-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of June 29th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom Andy Walden at Black Knight: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/blog-posts\/mild-forbearance-improvement-as-quarterly-reviews-continue\/\"\u003EMild Forbearance Improvement as Quarterly Reviews Continue\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAs we mentioned last week, there were still more than 300,000 homeowners in forbearance whose plans were scheduled for review by the end of June. Well, of the roughly 146,000 plans reviewed for extension or removal over the past week, 44,000 homeowners left forbearance, while the plans of the other 102,000 were extended.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAll in all, we wound up with a net decline of 6,000 plans. Not overly impactful, but it does set us up nicely for what could be a larger improvement next week as some 218,000 plans were still scheduled for review by Wednesday, June 30.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EOur weekly snapshots run through Tuesday, though. As of June 29, our McDash Flash daily loan-level performance dataset showed \u003Cb\u003E2.05 million homeowners – representing 3.9% of mortgaged properties – remaining in COVID-19 related forbearance plans\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xd26CcCmKv4\/YN8CR0EPSSI\/AAAAAAAA6Ec\/f0dw6biniuUuuPcWsU8ngj73vM6deedwwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1342\/BKForbearJuly22021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Black Knight Forbearance\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xd26CcCmKv4\/YN8CR0EPSSI\/AAAAAAAA6Ec\/f0dw6biniuUuuPcWsU8ngj73vM6deedwwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/BKForbearJuly22021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThis puts the overall number of active plans down 145,000, a 6.6% decline from the same time last month with the rate of improvement picking up from 6% last week and 5.4% the week before.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EA 5,000 reduction in the number of active GSE forbearance plans and a 2,000 drop in FHA\/VA plans were partially offset by a rise of 1,000 among portfolio and privately held mortgages.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EPlan starts continued to fall over the last seven days. In fact, last week saw the lowest total starts in five weeks (since the shortened business week of Memorial Day). There have been about 9% fewer starts over the last four weeks than there were in the preceding four-week period..\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1898603635585320454\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1898603635585320454","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1898603635585320454"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1898603635585320454"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/black-knight-number-of-homeowners-in.html","title":"Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xd26CcCmKv4\/YN8CR0EPSSI\/AAAAAAAA6Ec\/f0dw6biniuUuuPcWsU8ngj73vM6deedwwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/BKForbearJuly22021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9118399388516962352"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-01T20:55:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-01T20:55:30.181-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"My \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/june-employment-preview.html\"\u003EJune Employment Preview\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/goldman-june-payrolls-preview.html\"\u003EGoldman June Payrolls Preview\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for June. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 675,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also at 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003ETrade Balance report\u003C\/b\u003E for May from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is the trade deficit to be $70.8 billion.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. trade deficit was at $68.9 billion the previous month."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9118399388516962352\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9118399388516962352","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9118399388516962352"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9118399388516962352"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/friday-employment-report-trade-deficit.html","title":"Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5296762794832453686"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-01T16:58:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-01T16:58:39.582-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"June Employment Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June.  The consensus is for 675 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/--EkLDloZzHM\/YLoeJ_3QmoI\/AAAAAAAA5vI\/Fo30Esm_kEMfzucw9pmUdkPFhj7Z79F-wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1101\/EmployRecessionMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/--EkLDloZzHM\/YLoeJ_3QmoI\/AAAAAAAA5vI\/Fo30Esm_kEMfzucw9pmUdkPFhj7Z79F-wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployRecessionMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E• First, currently there are still \u003Cb\u003Eabout 7.6 million fewer jobs\u003C\/b\u003E than in February 2020 (before the pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but is now better than the worst of the \"Great Recession\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EADP Report:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/\"\u003EADP employment report\u003C\/a\u003E showed a gain of 692,000 private sector jobs, above the consensus estimate of 600,000 jobs added.\u0026nbsp; The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report, but this suggests the BLS report could be above expectations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EISM Surveys:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).\u0026nbsp; The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/ism-manufacturing-index-decreased-to.html\"\u003EISM® manufacturing employment index\u003C\/a\u003E decreased in June to 49.9%, down from last month. \u0026nbsp; This would suggest approximately 20,000 manufacturing jobs lost in June.  ADP showed 19,000 manufacturing jobs added.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe ISM Services employment index for June has not been released yet.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EUnemployment Claims:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html\"\u003Eweekly claims report\u003C\/a\u003E showed a small decline in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (include the 12th of the month) from 444,000 in May to 418,000 in June.  This would usually suggest some pickup in hiring, although this might not be very useful right now. \u003Cb\u003EIn general, weekly claims have been close to expectations in June.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-cNitFXxXBfE\/YLojBbRkuFI\/AAAAAAAA5vk\/0ElDBKtkm1k03kzWCFAFU0eobfvxcWMAACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1043\/PermanentMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-cNitFXxXBfE\/YLojBbRkuFI\/AAAAAAAA5vk\/0ElDBKtkm1k03kzWCFAFU0eobfvxcWMAACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PermanentMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EPermanent Job Losers:\u003C\/b\u003E Something to watch in the employment report will be \"Permanent job losers\".  While there has been a strong bounce back in total employment, from the shutdown in March and April 2020, permanent job losers had been flat over the last several months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the May report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In May, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 3.234 million from 3.529 million in April.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EConclusion:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;The data is a little mixed this month.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs far as the pandemic, the number of daily cases during the reference week in June was around 15,000, down sharply from around 35,000 in May.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;And vaccinations continue to increase.\u0026nbsp; These are strong positives for the job market.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESo my guess is the report will be above the consensus.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5296762794832453686\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5296762794832453686","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5296762794832453686"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5296762794832453686"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/june-employment-preview.html","title":"June Employment Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/--EkLDloZzHM\/YLoeJ_3QmoI\/AAAAAAAA5vI\/Fo30Esm_kEMfzucw9pmUdkPFhj7Z79F-wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EmployRecessionMay2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8563487539060390949"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-01T16:39:00.005-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-01T16:39:47.270-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Goldman June Payrolls Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWe estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 750k in June (mom sa) ... Coupled with very strong labor demand and continued progress on vaccinations and reopening, we believe job growth probably picked up further in the month. ... We estimate a two-tenths drop in the unemployment rate to 5.6%, reflecting a strong household employment gain but a further rise in the participation rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ECR Note: The consensus is for 675 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.6%."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8563487539060390949\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8563487539060390949","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8563487539060390949"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8563487539060390949"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/goldman-june-payrolls-preview.html","title":"Goldman June Payrolls Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5587658261999044269"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-01T16:19:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-01T16:19:01.775-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"July 1st COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ECongratulations to the residents of Delaware and Minnesota on joining the 70% club!  Go for 80%!!!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal doses administered: 328,152,304, as of a week ago 320,687,205.  \u003Cb\u003EAverage doses last week: 1.07 million per day.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYesterday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent over 18,\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne Dose\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E65.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated\u003Cbr \/\u003E(millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E155.9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E154.9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E151.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥160\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3,4🚩\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,514\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,504\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,472\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,974\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,948\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,329\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3,4\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E206\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E213\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E233\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E America's Goal by July 4th,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E4\u003C\/sup\u003ECases and Deaths updated Mon - Fri\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing week-over-week\u003Cbr \/\u003E    \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 18 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey,\u0026nbsp; Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Maryland, California,\u0026nbsp;Washington, New Hampshire,\u0026nbsp;New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware,\u0026nbsp;Minnesota and D.C. are all over 70%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up are Colorado at 69.8%, Oregon at 69.8%,\u0026nbsp;Wisconsin at 65.4%, Nebraska at 65.3%, and Florida at 64.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-trLKWT0XZzQ\/YN4glfTEspI\/AAAAAAAA6EU\/Ru1-WqHGeI8zknXQ4Mihob45HZsmcvFjACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1408\/COVIDCasesJuly12021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-trLKWT0XZzQ\/YN4glfTEspI\/AAAAAAAA6EU\/Ru1-WqHGeI8zknXQ4Mihob45HZsmcvFjACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesJuly12021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5587658261999044269\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5587658261999044269","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5587658261999044269"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5587658261999044269"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/july-1st-covid-19-new-cases.html","title":"July 1st COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-trLKWT0XZzQ\/YN4glfTEspI\/AAAAAAAA6EU\/Ru1-WqHGeI8zknXQ4Mihob45HZsmcvFjACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesJuly12021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7237157241479756877"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-01T12:38:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-01T12:38:07.163-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 7% Compared to Same Week in 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.\u0026nbsp; So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe occupancy rate is down 7.3% compared to the same week in 2019.  Leisure (weekend) occupancy has recovered, but weekday (more business) is still down double digits.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom CoStar: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.costar.com\/article\/699543907\/str-weekly-us-hotel-occupancy-inches-closer-to-70\"\u003ESTR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Inches Closer to 70%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. weekly hotel occupancy hit its highest level since late October 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through June 26.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EJune 20-26, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 69.9% (-7.3%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Average daily rate (ADR): US$133.36 (-0.5%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$93.19 (-7.8%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003EIn addition to occupancy reaching its highest point since the week ending 26 October 2019, ADR and RevPAR were the highest of the pandemic-era. \u003Cb\u003EWeekend occupancy surpassed the 2019 comparable for the second time in three weeks\u003C\/b\u003E, while ADR was 13% higher than the corresponding weekend from June 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E   \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the \u003Cb\u003Efour week average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-RGuKYsj0btU\/YN3vARAxDpI\/AAAAAAAA6EM\/6dpBReebaH4hL2AS6kakdFpL9vKgPRVTACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1034\/HotelJuly12021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-RGuKYsj0btU\/YN3vARAxDpI\/AAAAAAAA6EM\/6dpBReebaH4hL2AS6kakdFpL9vKgPRVTACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/HotelJuly12021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOccupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith solid leisure travel, the next two months should have decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7237157241479756877\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7237157241479756877","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7237157241479756877"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7237157241479756877"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/hotels-occupancy-rate-down-7-compared.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 7% Compared to Same Week in 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-RGuKYsj0btU\/YN3vARAxDpI\/AAAAAAAA6EM\/6dpBReebaH4hL2AS6kakdFpL9vKgPRVTACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/HotelJuly12021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4994555748291675335"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-01T10:35:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-01T18:43:22.391-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Construction Spending decreased 0.3% in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/c30\/pdf\/release.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that overall construction spending decreased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EConstruction spending during May 2021 was estimated at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,545.3 billion, 0.3 percent below\u003C\/b\u003E the revised April estimate of $1,549.5 billion. The May figure is 7.5 percent above the May 2020 estimate of $1,437.7 billion. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EPrivate spending increased and public spending decreased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ESpending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,203.3 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate of $1,206.8 billion. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn May, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $342.0 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised April estimate of $342.7 billion.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-adWSlFKH6GY\/YN3QumiEFqI\/AAAAAAAA6D8\/2IHdJ2xFCX8hn0X7DU4u97bqgtkZu9-TgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1025\/ConSpendMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-adWSlFKH6GY\/YN3QumiEFqI\/AAAAAAAA6D8\/2IHdJ2xFCX8hn0X7DU4u97bqgtkZu9-TgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ConSpendMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EResidential spending is 11% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENon-residential spending is 9% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPublic construction spending is 5% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 30% above the austerity low in February 2014, but weak recently.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-s7_6OZB2ZVE\/YN3QxZiLHBI\/AAAAAAAA6EA\/Wjw_ylvidYMH70wqCeAvAupuWqHyybphwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1037\/ConSpendYoYMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-s7_6OZB2ZVE\/YN3QxZiLHBI\/AAAAAAAA6EA\/Wjw_ylvidYMH70wqCeAvAupuWqHyybphwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ConSpendYoYMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, \u003Cb\u003Eprivate residential construction spending is up 28.7%\u003C\/b\u003E.  Non-residential spending is down 5.8% year-over-year.  Public spending is down 8.7% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EConstruction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but some sectors of non-residential have been under pressure.  \u003Cb\u003EFor example, lodging is down 23.2% YoY, multi-retail down 18.0% YoY, and office down 8.3% YoY\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was below consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase in spending, however construction spending for the previous months was revised up.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4994555748291675335\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4994555748291675335","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4994555748291675335"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4994555748291675335"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/construction-spending-increased-02-in.html","title":"Construction Spending decreased 0.3% in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-adWSlFKH6GY\/YN3QumiEFqI\/AAAAAAAA6D8\/2IHdJ2xFCX8hn0X7DU4u97bqgtkZu9-TgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ConSpendMay2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4913377991174059744"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-01T10:09:00.005-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-01T10:09:45.526-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 60.6% in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"(Posted with permission).  The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June.  The PMI® was at 60.6% in June, down from 61.2% in May.  The employment index was at 49.9%, down from 50.9% last month, and the new orders index was at 66.0%, down from 67.0%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom ISM: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/pmi\/june\/\"\u003EJune 2021 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EEconomic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in June, with the overall economy notching a 13th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“\u003Cb\u003EThe June Manufacturing PMI® registered 60.6 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the May reading of 61.2 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 13th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 66 percent, decreasing 1 percentage point from the May reading of 67 percent. The Production Index registered 60.8 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the May reading of 58.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 92.1 percent, up 4.1 percentage points compared to the May figure of 88 percent and the index’s highest reading since July 1979 (93.1 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 64.5 percent, 6.1 percentage points lower than the May reading of 70.6 percent. \u003Cb\u003EThe Employment Index registered 49.9 percent\u003C\/b\u003E; 1 percentage point lower compared to the May reading of 50.9 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 75.1 percent, down 3.7 percentage points from the May figure of 78.8 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the May reading of 50.8 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 56.2 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point compared to the May reading of 55.4 percent. The Imports Index registered 61 percent, a 7-percentage point increase from the May reading of 54 percent.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was below expectations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis suggests manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in June than in May."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4913377991174059744\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4913377991174059744","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4913377991174059744"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4913377991174059744"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/ism-manufacturing-index-decreased-to.html","title":"ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 60.6% in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2479059565586366193"},"published":{"$t":"2021-07-01T08:36:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-07-01T08:36:14.279-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 364,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the week ending June 26, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000\u003C\/b\u003E, a decrease of 51,000  from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was  256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 411,000 to 415,000. The 4-week moving average was  392,750, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since  March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,000 from 397,750 to 398,750. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis does not include the 115,267 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 111,778 the previous week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iUu0IPQhdsE\/YN212-MEj5I\/AAAAAAAA6D0\/dYwwMdg5CaIpDKBb-N9gnlrTlyCsXiytQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1068\/WeeklyClaimsJuly12021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iUu0IPQhdsE\/YN212-MEj5I\/AAAAAAAA6D0\/dYwwMdg5CaIpDKBb-N9gnlrTlyCsXiytQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsJuly12021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 392,750.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERegular state continued claims increased to 3,469,000 (SA) from 3,413,000 (SA) the previous week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: There are an additional 5,935,630 receiving \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/wdr.doleta.gov\/directives\/corr_doc.cfm?DOCN=4628\"\u003EPandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)\u003C\/a\u003E that decreased from 5,950,861 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers).  This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.\u0026nbsp;  And an additional 5,261,991  receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,274,108.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWeekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2479059565586366193\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2479059565586366193","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2479059565586366193"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2479059565586366193"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/07\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 364,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iUu0IPQhdsE\/YN212-MEj5I\/AAAAAAAA6D0\/dYwwMdg5CaIpDKBb-N9gnlrTlyCsXiytQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsJuly12021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4997843121467876515"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-30T21:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-30T21:00:00.587-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Thursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for a decrease to 400 thousand from 411 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 61.5, up from 61.2 in May.  The employment index was at 50.9% in May, and the new orders index was at 67.0%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for May. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Late in the day, \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for June. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.1 million SAAR in June, up from 17.0 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Wards Auto is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/june-vehicle-sales-forecast-supply.html\"\u003Eforecasting sales\u003C\/a\u003E of 15.8 million SAAR in June."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4997843121467876515\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4997843121467876515","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4997843121467876515"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4997843121467876515"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/thursday-unemployment-claims-ism-mfg.html","title":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5737182023916645081"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-30T17:06:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-30T17:06:42.159-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"June 30th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"This \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal doses administered: 326,521,526, as of a week ago 319,872,053.  \u003Cb\u003EAverage doses last week: 0.95 million per day.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYesterday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent over 18,\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne Dose\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E66.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E65.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1,2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated\u003Cbr \/\u003E(millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E154.9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E154.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E150.8\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥160\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3,4🚩\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,609\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,370\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,428\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,948\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,837\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,402\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3,4\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E256\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E256\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E263\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E America's Goal by July 4th,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E4\u003C\/sup\u003ECases and Deaths updated Mon - Fri\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing week-over-week\u003Cbr \/\u003E    \u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 16 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey,\u0026nbsp; Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Maryland, California,\u0026nbsp;Washington, New Hampshire,\u0026nbsp;New York, Illinois, Virginia and D.C. are all over 70%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up are Delaware at 69.9%, Minnesota at 69.9%, Colorado at 69.7%, Oregon at 69.5%,\u0026nbsp;Wisconsin at 65.3%, Nebraska at 65.2%, and Florida at 64.5%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-jloD_RgZIhw\/YNzb3cGZWrI\/AAAAAAAA6Ds\/yh-Qv2pDYPstxnowvD1KRllkv3C7R_m-QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1411\/COVIDCasesJune302021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-jloD_RgZIhw\/YNzb3cGZWrI\/AAAAAAAA6Ds\/yh-Qv2pDYPstxnowvD1KRllkv3C7R_m-QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesJune302021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5737182023916645081\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5737182023916645081","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5737182023916645081"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5737182023916645081"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/june-30th-covid-19-new-cases.html","title":"June 30th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-jloD_RgZIhw\/YNzb3cGZWrI\/AAAAAAAA6Ds\/yh-Qv2pDYPstxnowvD1KRllkv3C7R_m-QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesJune302021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-259759109810006517"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-30T16:38:00.006-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-30T16:38:56.111-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Fannie Mae \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/about-us\/investor-relations\/monthly-summary\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 2.25% in May, from 2.38% in April. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.89% in May 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese are mortgage loans that are \"three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble, and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iZ1Y_tZT3T0\/YNzV8TyKqpI\/AAAAAAAA6Dk\/_l29SBAxtgYl-Uhn6nu9aeMAcfoC104ngCLcBGAsYHQ\/s949\/FannieMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iZ1Y_tZT3T0\/YNzV8TyKqpI\/AAAAAAAA6Dk\/_l29SBAxtgYl-Uhn6nu9aeMAcfoC104ngCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/FannieMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBy vintage\u003C\/b\u003E, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 5.27% are seriously delinquent (down from 5.44% in April).  \u003Cb\u003EFor loans made in 2005 through 2008\u003C\/b\u003E (2% of portfolio), \u003Cb\u003E9.09% are seriously delinquent\u003C\/b\u003E (down from 9.33%),  For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (96% of portfolio), 1.82% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.94%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. \u0026nbsp; Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/freddie-mac-mortgage-serious.html\"\u003EFreddie Mac reported\u003C\/a\u003E earlier."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/259759109810006517\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=259759109810006517","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/259759109810006517"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/259759109810006517"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/fannie-mae-mortgage-serious-delinquency.html","title":"Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iZ1Y_tZT3T0\/YNzV8TyKqpI\/AAAAAAAA6Dk\/_l29SBAxtgYl-Uhn6nu9aeMAcfoC104ngCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/FannieMay2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8107548807396922448"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-30T14:35:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-30T14:35:49.752-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Las Vegas Visitor Authority for May: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 22% Compared to 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/assets.simpleviewcms.com\/simpleview\/image\/upload\/v1\/clients\/lasvegas\/ES_May_2021_18a7b445-51bf-4755-9ba0-8b3f10f6a223.pdf\"\u003EMay 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe upward trajectory of tourism indicators continued in May as the destination welcomed nearly 2.9M visitors, + 11.8% MoM and down roughly -22% vs. May 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EHotel occupancy reached nearly 71%, up 5.3 pts MoM, as Weekend occupancy approached 88%, coming within 8.6 pts of May 2019 levels. Midweek occupancy saw gains as well, reaching 62.8%, up 4.9 pts MoM and down 25.3 pts vs. May 2019.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Zqokv1DAOMo\/YNy5MCCVpKI\/AAAAAAAA6Dc\/11Bgdq1vGr420mdF10jqEbJabCGsDoyiACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1039\/LasVegasMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\" width=\"500\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Las Vegas Visitor Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Zqokv1DAOMo\/YNy5MCCVpKI\/AAAAAAAA6Dc\/11Bgdq1vGr420mdF10jqEbJabCGsDoyiACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/LasVegasMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EVisitor traffic was down 22.0% compared to the same month in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EConvention traffic was non-existent again in May, and was down 100% compared to May 2019.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThere has been no convention traffic since March 2020.\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EI'll add a graph of convention traffic once conventions start to reopen.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Conventions started again in June."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8107548807396922448\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8107548807396922448","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8107548807396922448"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8107548807396922448"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/las-vegas-visitor-authority-for-may-no.html","title":"Las Vegas Visitor Authority for May: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 22% Compared to 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Zqokv1DAOMo\/YNy5MCCVpKI\/AAAAAAAA6Dc\/11Bgdq1vGr420mdF10jqEbJabCGsDoyiACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/LasVegasMay2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3470776737622709001"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-30T12:14:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-30T12:14:21.814-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Sharply from Recent Peak, Up Solidly Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows CME framing futures through June 30th.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELumber is currently at $722 per 1000 board feet.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is down from a peak of $1,733, but up from $448 a year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-r_whL0LRiko\/YNyXCddP7eI\/AAAAAAAA6DU\/1JxV02GuOgU9TEkcYWQ1ekKM9kwn639yQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s998\/LumberJune302021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Lumber Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-r_whL0LRiko\/YNyXCddP7eI\/AAAAAAAA6DU\/1JxV02GuOgU9TEkcYWQ1ekKM9kwn639yQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/LumberJune302021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELumber price are up 60% year-over-year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere are supply constraints, for example, sawmills cut production and inventory at the beginning of the pandemic, and the West Coast fires in 2020 damaged privately-owned timberland.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe supply constraints are easing.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAnd there has been a huge\u0026nbsp;surge in demand for lumber.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3470776737622709001\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3470776737622709001","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3470776737622709001"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3470776737622709001"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/update-framing-lumber-prices-down.html","title":"Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Sharply from Recent Peak, Up Solidly Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-r_whL0LRiko\/YNyXCddP7eI\/AAAAAAAA6DU\/1JxV02GuOgU9TEkcYWQ1ekKM9kwn639yQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/LumberJune302021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-162277440849936158"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-30T09:55:00.013-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-30T10:03:01.759-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 8.0% in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/pending-home-sales-bounce-back-8-0-in-may\"\u003EPending Home Sales Bounce Back 8.0% in May\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPending home sales rebounded strongly in May, reaching the highest reading ever for the month of May since 2005\u003C\/b\u003E, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four U.S. regions registered both month-over-month increases and year-over-year gains for pending home sales contract transactions for the month of May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, \u003Cb\u003Erose 8.0% to 114.7 in May\u003C\/b\u003E. Year-over-year, signings increased 13.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Northeast PHSI increased 15.5% to 98.5 in May, a 54.6% climb from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index grew 6.7% to 107.7 last month, up 7.8% from May 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EPending home sales transactions in the South rose 4.9% to an index of 135.5 in May, up 6.1% from May 2020. The index in the West increased 10.9% in May to 102.0, up 12.5% from a year prior.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was well above expectations of a 0.8% increase for this index.  Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in June and July."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/162277440849936158\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=162277440849936158","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/162277440849936158"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/162277440849936158"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/nar-pending-home-sales-increased-80-in.html","title":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 8.0% in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3083843227135258541"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-30T08:19:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-30T08:19:50.873-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ADP: Private Employment increased 692,000 in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/2021\/June\/NER\/NER-June-2021.aspx\"\u003EFrom ADP:\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrivate sector employment increased by 692,000 jobs from May to  June\u003C\/b\u003E according to the June ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each  month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data,  measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“The labor market recovery remains robust, with June closing out a strong second quarter of jobs growth,”  said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “While payrolls are still nearly 7 million short of pre-COVID\u000219 levels, job gains have totaled about 3 million since the beginning of 2021. Service providers, the  hardest hit sector, continue to do the heavy lifting, with leisure and hospitality posting the strongest gain  as businesses begin to reopen to full capacity across the country\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E  This was above the consensus forecast of 600,000 for this report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 675 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in June.  The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3083843227135258541\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3083843227135258541","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3083843227135258541"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3083843227135258541"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/adp-private-employment-increased-692000.html","title":"ADP: Private Employment increased 692,000 in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3658307275488343750"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-30T07:00:00.027-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-30T07:00:00.555-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 25, 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E...  The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 15 percent lower than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“\u003Cb\u003EMortgage application volume fell to the lowest level in almost a year and a half\u003C\/b\u003E, with declines in both  refinance and purchase applications. Mortgage rates were volatile last week, as investors tried to gauge  upcoming moves by the Federal Reserve amidst several divergent signals, including rising inflation,  mixed job market data, strong consumer spending, and a supply-constrained housing market that has led  to rapid home-price growth,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.  “\u003Cb\u003EPurchase applications for conventional loans declined last week to the lowest level since last May\u003C\/b\u003E. The  average loan size for total purchase applications increased, indicating that first-time homebuyers, who  typically get smaller loans, are likely getting squeezed out of the market due to the lack of entry-level  homes for sale.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E   ...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances  ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.20 percent from 3.18 percent, with points decreasing to 0.39 from 0.48 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UMmfjTadqEc\/YNuK_-P-f2I\/AAAAAAAA6DA\/UykboDPmb4QF-pVN9_zN8EEDAhqeQNYmQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1092\/MBARefiJune302021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UMmfjTadqEc\/YNuK_-P-f2I\/AAAAAAAA6DA\/UykboDPmb4QF-pVN9_zN8EEDAhqeQNYmQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBARefiJune302021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith low rates, the index remains elevated.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-IFzPOS1D9nI\/YNuLCGYW5CI\/AAAAAAAA6DE\/RR3eiMSU3swX7_l08pNwlxAt1sOIWQj0ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1091\/MBAJune302021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-IFzPOS1D9nI\/YNuLCGYW5CI\/AAAAAAAA6DE\/RR3eiMSU3swX7_l08pNwlxAt1sOIWQj0ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBAJune302021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 17% year-over-year unadjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now more difficult since purchase activity picked up in late May 2020.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3658307275488343750\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3658307275488343750","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3658307275488343750"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3658307275488343750"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_0572430923.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UMmfjTadqEc\/YNuK_-P-f2I\/AAAAAAAA6DA\/UykboDPmb4QF-pVN9_zN8EEDAhqeQNYmQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBARefiJune302021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6429687498822882324"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-29T21:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-29T21:00:00.594-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: ADP Employment, Pending Home Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:15 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EADP Employment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 600,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from 978,000 lost in May. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 9:45 AM, \u003Cb\u003EChicago Purchasing Managers Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EPending Home Sales Index\u003C\/b\u003E for May.  The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6429687498822882324\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6429687498822882324","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6429687498822882324"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6429687498822882324"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/wednesday-adp-employment-pending-home.html","title":"Wednesday: ADP Employment, Pending Home Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6063900950723222623"},"published":{"$t":"2021-06-29T17:32:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-06-29T17:32:33.844-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: \"No Sign of Slowing\", 16.2% YoY in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html\"\u003ECase-Shiller house price indexes for April\u003C\/a\u003E were released today.   Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom Matthew Speakman at Zillow: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.zillow.com\/research\/march-2021-case-shiller-results-forecast-29533\/\"\u003EApril 2021 Case-Shiller Results \u0026amp; Forecast: No Sign of Slowing\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage rates remain near historic lows, a demographic wave of households aging into prime homeownership years continues to swell, and despite showing some signs of bottoming, the number of available homes for sale remains historically small, particularly given the elevated demand for housing. Prices have skyrocketed as a result, and price growth continues to set new record highs. What’s more, despite sharply rising prices, demand for homes remains very strong. Bidding wars for the relatively few houses available remain common and homes are going under contract at an increasingly fast pace. Inventory upticks in recent weeks suggest that a respite from these red-hot market conditions may be starting to form. But a return to a balanced market remains a long way off, and there are few, if any, signs that home price appreciation will start to subside anytime soon.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EMonthly and annual growth in May as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate from April and Mary 2020 in all three main indices. S\u0026amp;P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the May S\u0026amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, July 27.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fq1yZCxbLfM\/YNuROI2KzMI\/AAAAAAAA6DM\/lGfG72VFF4Yz-i5ywhwPqn6Oirs8C-PZgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s878\/ZillowMay2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fq1yZCxbLfM\/YNuROI2KzMI\/AAAAAAAA6DM\/lGfG72VFF4Yz-i5ywhwPqn6Oirs8C-PZgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ZillowMay2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller\u0026nbsp;National index to be at \u003Cb\u003E16.2% in May\u003C\/b\u003E, up from 14.6% in April. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 16.5% YoY in April from 14.9% in April, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 16.1% YoY compared to 14.4% YoY in April."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6063900950723222623\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6063900950723222623","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6063900950723222623"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6063900950723222623"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/06\/zillow-case-shiller-house-price.html","title":"Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: \"No Sign of Slowing\", 16.2% YoY in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fq1yZCxbLfM\/YNuROI2KzMI\/AAAAAAAA6DM\/lGfG72VFF4Yz-i5ywhwPqn6Oirs8C-PZgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ZillowMay2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});