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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"29933"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7456721684478679756"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-28T21:01:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-28T21:01:00.407-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: June Personal Income and Outlays"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiZ5m4KEGtskgEbtq4gYCbGcMFxD2DZGWZTvh9dle3lNvrD1-7JGfUf_5_AAiTV3z9C2TIzOgb8k2r1XaGudHN8W_jKa4i-aXJ4rCTWHDo4ZMiWLPKbcwr9ZU0D7CxBJ9i5jyDPqDGxYQGRdBKMhpu844oKaoxI79qGoy4NQEK5Qi1e2HIlNA\/s411\/RatesJuly282022.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiZ5m4KEGtskgEbtq4gYCbGcMFxD2DZGWZTvh9dle3lNvrD1-7JGfUf_5_AAiTV3z9C2TIzOgb8k2r1XaGudHN8W_jKa4i-aXJ4rCTWHDo4ZMiWLPKbcwr9ZU0D7CxBJ9i5jyDPqDGxYQGRdBKMhpu844oKaoxI79qGoy4NQEK5Qi1e2HIlNA\/s320\/RatesJuly282022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003EFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EPersonal Income and Outlays, June 2022\u003C\/b\u003E.  The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.9% increase in personal spending.   And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.5%.\u0026nbsp; PCE prices are expected to be up 6.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.7% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 9:45 AM, \u003Cb\u003EChicago Purchasing Managers Index\u003C\/b\u003E for July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Final for July). The consensus is for a reading of 51.1.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHospitalizations have almost quadrupled from the lows in April 2022.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E126,272\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E127,478\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E37,069\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E35,500\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E364\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E382\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJj2VujrE7RyEXRxbWLH2xbEnCrJiILVR-Zhag13Eg8VDJ3uYj0H8C04CyxfA8gaxT7IJewxMTIMt5yqso_et8LdY-75yEg1tB9MWOlsP9GPFPanWzW1ptGo717AtXsSTWRGupWHE3fR3TGNKqhs-0UX7pnajU3cToy9nwhqcrQiDdMVpxWA\/s1185\/COVIDdeathsJuly282022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJj2VujrE7RyEXRxbWLH2xbEnCrJiILVR-Zhag13Eg8VDJ3uYj0H8C04CyxfA8gaxT7IJewxMTIMt5yqso_et8LdY-75yEg1tB9MWOlsP9GPFPanWzW1ptGo717AtXsSTWRGupWHE3fR3TGNKqhs-0UX7pnajU3cToy9nwhqcrQiDdMVpxWA\/s320\/COVIDdeathsJuly282022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAverage daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7456721684478679756\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7456721684478679756","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7456721684478679756"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7456721684478679756"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/friday-june-personal-income-and-outlays.html","title":"Friday: June Personal Income and Outlays"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiZ5m4KEGtskgEbtq4gYCbGcMFxD2DZGWZTvh9dle3lNvrD1-7JGfUf_5_AAiTV3z9C2TIzOgb8k2r1XaGudHN8W_jKa4i-aXJ4rCTWHDo4ZMiWLPKbcwr9ZU0D7CxBJ9i5jyDPqDGxYQGRdBKMhpu844oKaoxI79qGoy4NQEK5Qi1e2HIlNA\/s72-c\/RatesJuly282022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9074980527440044894"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-28T15:18:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-28T15:18:09.280-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Las Vegas June 2022: Visitor Traffic Down 7.8% Compared to 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/assets.simpleviewcms.com\/simpleview\/image\/upload\/v1\/clients\/lasvegas\/ES_May_2022_7cdf9962-3339-4c5f-b290-234c3e5b0dc5.pdf\"\u003EMay 2022 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ELas Vegas saw another strong month of visitation in June as the destination hosted over 3.3M visitors, about 12% ahead of last June but approx. 8% behind June 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith room inventory reflecting the net impacts of the openings of the Virgin Hotel Las Vegas and Resorts World since the middle of last year, overall hotel occupancy reached 82.7%, 6.8 pts ahead of last June but down 9.0 pts vs. June 2019. Weekend occupancy welcomed a fourth consecutive month at or above 90% and Midweek occupancy reached 80% for the first time since February 2020 (up 9.1 pts YoY but down 9.7 pts vs. June 2019).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EADR approached $157, 22.7% ahead of last June and over 30% above June 2019 while RevPAR neared $130 for the month, +33.7% YoY and +17.5% over June 2019.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNNlCnwS6pCyg1DuXaQN77UULs5eSrjatX_fUGaoHhhAZIjyNQp9MhBHh9lM1DcwCVhhuGJ2pzx4MWVKU38Z4JGrs3nE-BaZAaU4Xgr1bP7Bwj1sQwenanIHzBcug7R1Csu5JTTlDM_DbEbImgJ8MzxBOYi9En8Ue_CNguW40MkdeypB37kA\/s1033\/LasVegasJune2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\" width=\"500\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Las Vegas Visitor Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNNlCnwS6pCyg1DuXaQN77UULs5eSrjatX_fUGaoHhhAZIjyNQp9MhBHh9lM1DcwCVhhuGJ2pzx4MWVKU38Z4JGrs3nE-BaZAaU4Xgr1bP7Bwj1sQwenanIHzBcug7R1Csu5JTTlDM_DbEbImgJ8MzxBOYi9En8Ue_CNguW40MkdeypB37kA\/s320\/LasVegasJune2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (dark blue), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (yellow) and 2022 (red)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EVisitor traffic was down 7.8% compared to the same month in 2019.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EVisitor traffic was up 12% compared to last June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows convention traffic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjPpMlrc-lIScm0hcMesEK1bvn9LuCrXRWSKoMSjulOLNdGdCS94SYZ_8G1zMrS76RehkGpjlsDMd1kcuxLgcMgFLQ4-m_eTf58DjPjsvP6QYp-8tpLlkWBH-zeJ8xajCbDtV-IEYyvCQV0K9ZwMZmVRJFS94CE0FYSSJwV0sJf-QMV5BAiQQ\/s1038\/LasVegasConventionJune2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\" width=\"500\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Las Vegas Visitor Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjPpMlrc-lIScm0hcMesEK1bvn9LuCrXRWSKoMSjulOLNdGdCS94SYZ_8G1zMrS76RehkGpjlsDMd1kcuxLgcMgFLQ4-m_eTf58DjPjsvP6QYp-8tpLlkWBH-zeJ8xajCbDtV-IEYyvCQV0K9ZwMZmVRJFS94CE0FYSSJwV0sJf-QMV5BAiQQ\/s320\/LasVegasConventionJune2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EConvention traffic was down 8.7% compared to June 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9074980527440044894\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9074980527440044894","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9074980527440044894"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9074980527440044894"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/las-vegas-june-2022-visitor-traffic.html","title":"Las Vegas June 2022: Visitor Traffic Down 7.8% Compared to 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNNlCnwS6pCyg1DuXaQN77UULs5eSrjatX_fUGaoHhhAZIjyNQp9MhBHh9lM1DcwCVhhuGJ2pzx4MWVKU38Z4JGrs3nE-BaZAaU4Xgr1bP7Bwj1sQwenanIHzBcug7R1Csu5JTTlDM_DbEbImgJ8MzxBOYi9En8Ue_CNguW40MkdeypB37kA\/s72-c\/LasVegasJune2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4888219971915699973"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-28T13:14:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-28T13:14:14.459-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Median vs Repeat Sales Index House Prices"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/median-vs-repeat-sales-index-house-9d3\"\u003EMedian vs Repeat Sales Index House Prices\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EPerhaps the timeliest house price report for existing homes is the monthly existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Each month the NAR reports the median prices for closed sales. Note: Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut even the median price is lagged. For example, the recently released \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-4c7\"\u003EJune report\u003C\/a\u003E was mostly for contracts signed in April and May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is a graph comparing the YoY change in the NAR median prices vs the Case-Shiller National Index:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjI73UTQQT5a9MdPaoDo5ETPd8wPNme8WTSN6OE7bLmO1Zx4hIwGycBIN5VGeRHVK7_KgfNGZYvd-6CL4kfkbxLiuvAV_qczIoXrDduxeNPqs5cYbAdURVRljBlxHa7gloG8MQthtiRn6J01OyBgHbroejfg9UnlcVOK9qi9nl3A4P3b2irnQ\/s877\/CSMedianMay2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Median vs. Case-Shiller\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjI73UTQQT5a9MdPaoDo5ETPd8wPNme8WTSN6OE7bLmO1Zx4hIwGycBIN5VGeRHVK7_KgfNGZYvd-6CL4kfkbxLiuvAV_qczIoXrDduxeNPqs5cYbAdURVRljBlxHa7gloG8MQthtiRn6J01OyBgHbroejfg9UnlcVOK9qi9nl3A4P3b2irnQ\/s320\/CSMedianMay2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and slowed to 13.3% in June (still very strong increase in YoY prices). The median price is not seasonally adjusted, and typically declines in July, and I expect a larger than normal decline this July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn general, \u003Cb\u003Ethe median price leads the Case-Shiller index, and I expect the Case-Shiller to show significantly slower YoY growth over the next several months.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4888219971915699973\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4888219971915699973","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4888219971915699973"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4888219971915699973"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/median-vs-repeat-sales-index-house.html","title":"Median vs Repeat Sales Index House Prices"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjI73UTQQT5a9MdPaoDo5ETPd8wPNme8WTSN6OE7bLmO1Zx4hIwGycBIN5VGeRHVK7_KgfNGZYvd-6CL4kfkbxLiuvAV_qczIoXrDduxeNPqs5cYbAdURVRljBlxHa7gloG8MQthtiRn6J01OyBgHbroejfg9UnlcVOK9qi9nl3A4P3b2irnQ\/s72-c\/CSMedianMay2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1886091926726697423"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-28T10:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-28T10:00:19.669-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"A Few Comments on Q2 GDP and Investment"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: The second graph - residential investment as a percent of GDP - is useful in predicting a Fed induced recession.  RI as a percent of GDP usually turns down well in advance of a recession.  This will be something to watch.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEarlier from the BEA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate\"\u003EGross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EReal gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an \u003Cb\u003Eannual rate of 0.9 percent\u003C\/b\u003E in the second quarter of 2022, according to the \"advance\" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe advance Q2 GDP report, at -0.9% annualized, was below expectations, primarily due to a negative impact from a decrease in inventories.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPersonal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 1.0% annualized rate in Q2.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So, the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOf course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern didn't apply.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiI_QRT8QFBOUEKAh3VfiatgS6NWt5WKflnp9cHxHqbPvsOAGkA__f-evOQ1Rr90QBamHYBJK0AvXqV-9YH1zKWWJVV9wZ29i4k6aP1LSd6ZdF8k5nbmeU2VL2ci_S9uske8wJnIGPpf7DP7ZbwAZ0-0qs0RYMK5-H7VaR8HIVTB2_1T3ya1A\/s1088\/InvestmentQ22022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Investment Contributions\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiI_QRT8QFBOUEKAh3VfiatgS6NWt5WKflnp9cHxHqbPvsOAGkA__f-evOQ1Rr90QBamHYBJK0AvXqV-9YH1zKWWJVV9wZ29i4k6aP1LSd6ZdF8k5nbmeU2VL2ci_S9uske8wJnIGPpf7DP7ZbwAZ0-0qs0RYMK5-H7VaR8HIVTB2_1T3ya1A\/s320\/InvestmentQ22022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EResidential investment (RI) decreased at a 14.0% annual rate in Q2. \u0026nbsp;Equipment investment decreased at a 2.7% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 11.7% annual rate.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe contribution to Q2 GDP from investment in private inventories was -2.01 percentage points.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn a 3-quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is down, equipment (green) is up, and nonresidential structures (blue) is still down.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EI'll post more on the components of non-residential investment once the supplemental data is released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgNo6V8CRtsUudY6BONWumRIJarC2nyy8kA8P7hEj4jRaXPEKyBFr41rOFVJHO18hHy5PCxQ29FxotRyCGjw7ih4eUGmvXIDclxDjY7gk_yKARMzGmAAWwIEIBDAAyeea4r_01ghOFXL34s9ECU-EeJUgUuba7TXKwn8m-XPOnEYFgHyxdY2A\/s1004\/RIGDPQ22022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Residential Investment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgNo6V8CRtsUudY6BONWumRIJarC2nyy8kA8P7hEj4jRaXPEKyBFr41rOFVJHO18hHy5PCxQ29FxotRyCGjw7ih4eUGmvXIDclxDjY7gk_yKARMzGmAAWwIEIBDAAyeea4r_01ghOFXL34s9ECU-EeJUgUuba7TXKwn8m-XPOnEYFgHyxdY2A\/s320\/RIGDPQ22022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EResidential Investment as a percent of GDP decreased in Q2.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll break down Residential Investment into components after the GDP details are released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Residential investment (RI) includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi-rWsIyM6__EOEibFMS-Ne-ZpjgyjrLLUUPnI_IKJuXf8EbcqkBhDqOhzuL7R0uI7BuFv9uMlehkXXBKbULg6B0WIfPWu84Y6Bw4o22wP8MCdfgoGTvvGM52mv0-1j9SmYsI1vh5ZojeEZzVzwhQxuOxJ1j9gpPd6jTZP0t071arBlWgvqOA\/s1012\/NonRIGDPQ22022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"non-Residential Investment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi-rWsIyM6__EOEibFMS-Ne-ZpjgyjrLLUUPnI_IKJuXf8EbcqkBhDqOhzuL7R0uI7BuFv9uMlehkXXBKbULg6B0WIfPWu84Y6Bw4o22wP8MCdfgoGTvvGM52mv0-1j9SmYsI1vh5ZojeEZzVzwhQxuOxJ1j9gpPd6jTZP0t071arBlWgvqOA\/s320\/NonRIGDPQ22022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe\u0026nbsp;third graph shows non-residential investment in structures,\u0026nbsp;equipment and \"intellectual property products\". \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInvestment in non-residential structures decreased in Q2 as a percent GDP.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1886091926726697423\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1886091926726697423","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1886091926726697423"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1886091926726697423"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/a-few-comments-on-q2-gdp-and-investment.html","title":"A Few Comments on Q2 GDP and Investment"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiI_QRT8QFBOUEKAh3VfiatgS6NWt5WKflnp9cHxHqbPvsOAGkA__f-evOQ1Rr90QBamHYBJK0AvXqV-9YH1zKWWJVV9wZ29i4k6aP1LSd6ZdF8k5nbmeU2VL2ci_S9uske8wJnIGPpf7DP7ZbwAZ0-0qs0RYMK5-H7VaR8HIVTB2_1T3ya1A\/s72-c\/InvestmentQ22022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6082477544766538306"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-28T08:38:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-28T08:38:18.846-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BEA: Real GDP decreased at 0.9% Annualized Rate in Q2"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the BEA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate\"\u003EGross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EReal gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the \"advance\" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EPCE increased at a 1.0% rate, and \u003Cb\u003Eresidential investment decreased at a 14.0% rate\u003C\/b\u003E.  Change in private inventories was a huge drag in Q2, subtracting 2.01 percentage points. The advance Q2 GDP report, with 0.9% annualized decline, was below expectations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll have more later ..."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6082477544766538306\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6082477544766538306","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6082477544766538306"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6082477544766538306"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/bea-real-gdp-decreased-at-09-annualized.html","title":"BEA: Real GDP decreased at 0.9% Annualized Rate in Q2"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2254838194221713631"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-28T08:34:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-28T08:34:05.285-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 256,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the week ending July 23, the advance figure for s\u003Cb\u003Eeasonally adjusted initial claims was 256,000\u003C\/b\u003E, a decrease of 5,000  from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 10,000 from 251,000 to 261,000.  The 4-week moving average was 249,250, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous  week's average was revised up by 2,500 from 240,500 to 243,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg7EEgdokmboINsb5_SGeM0JZORupSC2lOGqK3OVV3r4BXOf8Ov1vLPDr54d3PD2WOvdpEbBGjzpjBwf4FdqrCvp6yyGjv18izymI4Z2tfs4JqWW2b0luT7vr44ceqBVuG_ob9jmTVx5bRV4yGhzdAvsuJ5av01h8k2nyg9R7S0My7s3NkVgQ\/s1080\/WeeklyClaimsJuly282022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg7EEgdokmboINsb5_SGeM0JZORupSC2lOGqK3OVV3r4BXOf8Ov1vLPDr54d3PD2WOvdpEbBGjzpjBwf4FdqrCvp6yyGjv18izymI4Z2tfs4JqWW2b0luT7vr44ceqBVuG_ob9jmTVx5bRV4yGhzdAvsuJ5av01h8k2nyg9R7S0My7s3NkVgQ\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsJuly282022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 249,250.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWeekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2254838194221713631\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2254838194221713631","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2254838194221713631"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2254838194221713631"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-at.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 256,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg7EEgdokmboINsb5_SGeM0JZORupSC2lOGqK3OVV3r4BXOf8Ov1vLPDr54d3PD2WOvdpEbBGjzpjBwf4FdqrCvp6yyGjv18izymI4Z2tfs4JqWW2b0luT7vr44ceqBVuG_ob9jmTVx5bRV4yGhzdAvsuJ5av01h8k2nyg9R7S0My7s3NkVgQ\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsJuly282022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5856353532421573259"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-27T21:01:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-27T21:01:00.356-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Q2 GDP, Unemployment Claims"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Thursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, the \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 248 thousand down from 251 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also, at 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EGross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter (advance estimate), and annual update\u003C\/b\u003E. The consensus is that real GDP increased 0.4% annualized in Q2, up from -1.6% in Q1.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 11:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EKansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for July.   This is the last of the regional surveys for July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHospitalizations have almost quadrupled from the lows in April 2022.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E127,786\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E126,610\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E36,909\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E35,126\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E366\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E391\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgoMGnVRQZ2khVU8xomIxlYwO2v67X4UM4Y-asC2n7IYBetIbwk7Bf9NBQkr2u8uuYWldjNSVUojPjaZOB_x_TWDYV_Gv6WZGweBZ-6E-Fzl76RaPbo-8IvArR6hvNaZQk8M06Kvj-wn9nXBFgcX-gLRV2X-iyttdrZBcXEApQtDRgrIdFYdw\/s1187\/COVIDDeathsJuly272022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgoMGnVRQZ2khVU8xomIxlYwO2v67X4UM4Y-asC2n7IYBetIbwk7Bf9NBQkr2u8uuYWldjNSVUojPjaZOB_x_TWDYV_Gv6WZGweBZ-6E-Fzl76RaPbo-8IvArR6hvNaZQk8M06Kvj-wn9nXBFgcX-gLRV2X-iyttdrZBcXEApQtDRgrIdFYdw\/s320\/COVIDDeathsJuly272022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAverage daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5856353532421573259\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5856353532421573259","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5856353532421573259"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5856353532421573259"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/thursday-q2-gdp-unemployment-claims.html","title":"Thursday: Q2 GDP, Unemployment Claims"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgoMGnVRQZ2khVU8xomIxlYwO2v67X4UM4Y-asC2n7IYBetIbwk7Bf9NBQkr2u8uuYWldjNSVUojPjaZOB_x_TWDYV_Gv6WZGweBZ-6E-Fzl76RaPbo-8IvArR6hvNaZQk8M06Kvj-wn9nXBFgcX-gLRV2X-iyttdrZBcXEApQtDRgrIdFYdw\/s72-c\/COVIDDeathsJuly272022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4615909176168205882"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-27T14:02:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-27T14:02:03.281-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 75 bp; \"Ongoing increases appropriate\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Fed Chair Powell \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/live-broadcast.htm\"\u003Epress conference video here\u003C\/a\u003E or on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/user\/FedReserveBoard\/events\"\u003EYouTube here\u003C\/a\u003E, starting at 2:30 PM ET.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20220615a.htm\"\u003EFOMC Statement:\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ERecent indicators of spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERussia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to \u003Cb\u003Eraise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1\/4 to 2-1\/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate\u003C\/b\u003E. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4615909176168205882\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4615909176168205882","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4615909176168205882"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4615909176168205882"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/fomc-statement-raise-rates-75-bp.html","title":"FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 75 bp; \"Ongoing increases appropriate\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2182465890079351878"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-27T11:30:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-27T11:30:05.669-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent\"\u003EReal House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EIt has been over 16 years since the bubble peak. In the\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-index-up-197\"\u003ECase-Shiller release\u003C\/a\u003E yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006.\u0026nbsp;However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak\u0026nbsp;(and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).\u0026nbsp; The composite 20, in real terms, is about 7% above the bubble peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPeople usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).\u0026nbsp; As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be almost $334,000 today adjusted for inflation (67% increase).\u0026nbsp; That is why the second graph below is important - this shows\u0026nbsp;\"real\" prices (adjusted for inflation). ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEheN-ztbEhKF4eDnBw8YaLyIjeDoaTHIfXLEgTJQpJrYCgGP3JitnJzc3ZnJCu7Z8hBO3SQj3x7qdwz_3NJlBC5RnJgdCs0rjEZlywqZjxo42QVSyPipcmoH59xDKtOngCHf-3ELoIdLxdMpxNbiTIShTfVWGmYBt5mlq4JN1OgQQssx5VM_w\/s942\/RealMay2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Real House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEheN-ztbEhKF4eDnBw8YaLyIjeDoaTHIfXLEgTJQpJrYCgGP3JitnJzc3ZnJCu7Z8hBO3SQj3x7qdwz_3NJlBC5RnJgdCs0rjEZlywqZjxo42QVSyPipcmoH59xDKtOngCHf-3ELoIdLxdMpxNbiTIShTfVWGmYBt5mlq4JN1OgQQssx5VM_w\/s320\/RealMay2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn real terms, the National index is 16.0% above the bubble peak, and the Composite 20 index is 7.4% above the bubble peak in early 2006.In real terms, house prices are now above the previous peak levels. There is an upward slope to real house prices, and it has been over 16 years since the previous peak, but real prices appear historically high (Of course interest rates had been very low).\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2182465890079351878\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2182465890079351878","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2182465890079351878"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2182465890079351878"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent.html","title":"Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEheN-ztbEhKF4eDnBw8YaLyIjeDoaTHIfXLEgTJQpJrYCgGP3JitnJzc3ZnJCu7Z8hBO3SQj3x7qdwz_3NJlBC5RnJgdCs0rjEZlywqZjxo42QVSyPipcmoH59xDKtOngCHf-3ELoIdLxdMpxNbiTIShTfVWGmYBt5mlq4JN1OgQQssx5VM_w\/s72-c\/RealMay2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8043945608170407181"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-27T10:07:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-27T10:07:15.264-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 8.6% in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/pending-home-sales-fell-8-6-in-june\"\u003EPending Home Sales Fell 8.6% in June\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EPending home sales decreased in June, following a slight increase in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions posted month-over-month and year-over-year pullbacks, the largest of which occurred in the West.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Pending Home Sales Index \u003C\/b\u003E(PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, \u003Cb\u003Edipped 8.6%\u003C\/b\u003E to 91.0 in June. Year-over-year, transactions shrank 20.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date,\" said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. \"There are indications that mortgage rates may be topping or very close to a cyclical high in July. If so, pending contracts should also begin to stabilize.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to NAR, buying a home in June was about 80% more expensive than in June 2019. Nearly a quarter of buyers who purchased a home three years ago would be unable to do so now because they no longer earn the qualifying income to buy a median-priced home today.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Northeast PHSI slid 6.7% compared to last month to 80.9, down 17.6% from June 2021. The Midwest index dropped 3.8% to 93.7 in June, a 13.4% decline from a year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe South PHSI slipped 8.9% to 108.3 in June, a decrease of 19.2% from the previous year. The West index slumped 15.9% in June to 68.7, down 30.9% from June 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was well below expectations for this index.  Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in July and August."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8043945608170407181\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8043945608170407181","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8043945608170407181"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8043945608170407181"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/nar-pending-home-sales-decreased-86-in.html","title":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 8.6% in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3323077212192631202"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-27T07:00:00.017-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-27T07:00:00.422-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one  week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage  Applications Survey for the week ending July 22, 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E... The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous  week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase  Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E18 percent lower than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“Mortgage applications declined for the fourth consecutive week to the lowest level of activity since  February 2000. Increased economic uncertainty and prevalent affordability challenges are dissuading  households from entering the market, leading to declining purchase activity that is close to lows last seen  at the onset of the pandemic,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry  Forecasting. “Weakening purchase applications trends in recent months have been consistent with data  showing a slowdown in sales for newly constructed homes and existing homes. A potential silver lining for  the housing market is that stabilizing mortgage rates and increases in for-sale inventory may bring some  buyers back to the market during the second half of the year.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAdded Kan, “With mortgage rates remaining well over 5 percent, refinance applications are now 83  percent below last year’s pace.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances  ($647,200 or less) decreased to 5.74 percent from 5.82 percent, with points decreasing to 0.61 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjtjdQwtjF9_249awDXRJTrtDk60LUBNLS3FQKWV1CMguJ0ksw435QH0ErHMvtI_q88EuhpWqqpoOMcE4QrKF1bR59vuVNLN2RLasMuLsF-WnAV-JkyMrqpCtW0lzPKFvZP4LA30lE1yVUEaapL0CtdhgTukcqoN70SES6NIpFHjC-SrSWD2w\/s1085\/MBARefiJuly272022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjtjdQwtjF9_249awDXRJTrtDk60LUBNLS3FQKWV1CMguJ0ksw435QH0ErHMvtI_q88EuhpWqqpoOMcE4QrKF1bR59vuVNLN2RLasMuLsF-WnAV-JkyMrqpCtW0lzPKFvZP4LA30lE1yVUEaapL0CtdhgTukcqoN70SES6NIpFHjC-SrSWD2w\/s320\/MBARefiJuly272022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiEdBEUoyNO2g8ef55mT4OiMP-2FtKs2C8MvpHJx-UwifMCQUW7jwiubZShKy6nOs5WJSfKiolYm4Tn-ttHU1rU6LrZ0voVxvHOUuj7ZPFLf0d8JLFvH-bstXTQd5ywNlDXq6unUWDSk39n7Aus-n5NCNK6AOQttzjRnapcTr83TglKT8bAXw\/s1090\/MBAJuly272022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiEdBEUoyNO2g8ef55mT4OiMP-2FtKs2C8MvpHJx-UwifMCQUW7jwiubZShKy6nOs5WJSfKiolYm4Tn-ttHU1rU6LrZ0voVxvHOUuj7ZPFLf0d8JLFvH-bstXTQd5ywNlDXq6unUWDSk39n7Aus-n5NCNK6AOQttzjRnapcTr83TglKT8bAXw\/s320\/MBAJuly272022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 18% year-over-year unadjusted.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe purchase index is now only 13% above the pandemic low.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3323077212192631202\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3323077212192631202","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3323077212192631202"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3323077212192631202"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_01710756148.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjtjdQwtjF9_249awDXRJTrtDk60LUBNLS3FQKWV1CMguJ0ksw435QH0ErHMvtI_q88EuhpWqqpoOMcE4QrKF1bR59vuVNLN2RLasMuLsF-WnAV-JkyMrqpCtW0lzPKFvZP4LA30lE1yVUEaapL0CtdhgTukcqoN70SES6NIpFHjC-SrSWD2w\/s72-c\/MBARefiJuly272022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2290026975655360821"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-26T21:02:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-26T21:02:00.336-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: FOMC Statement, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EDurable Goods Orders\u003C\/b\u003E for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in durable goods orders.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EPending Home Sales Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June.  The consensus is for a 3.7% decrease in the index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 2:00 PM, \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Meeting Announcement\u003C\/b\u003E. The FOMC is expected to raise rates 75 bps, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate to 2‑1\/4 to 2-1\/2 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 2:30 PM, \u003Cb\u003EFed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHospitalizations have almost quadrupled from the lows in April 2022.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E124,549\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E127,314\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E36,312\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E34,737\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E367\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E384\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg8MEL0pmGSdc_M33eBplVnFvrDSs3tPhroqnjonRyxMwjc1P8NUmwRV3qETrVj7vlL0OeH1e0nXGa0HHwNb5N6LzoCsDZ8xK2HXP8Kmbm7JNxoBXgO7aMlE25Z-NgbV4FaK7eZhA6KAuE7fiEBKJKU3wrXKxw2IKi45xlSeoObbCY1JLXXiA\/s1183\/COVIDDeathsJuly262022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg8MEL0pmGSdc_M33eBplVnFvrDSs3tPhroqnjonRyxMwjc1P8NUmwRV3qETrVj7vlL0OeH1e0nXGa0HHwNb5N6LzoCsDZ8xK2HXP8Kmbm7JNxoBXgO7aMlE25Z-NgbV4FaK7eZhA6KAuE7fiEBKJKU3wrXKxw2IKi45xlSeoObbCY1JLXXiA\/s320\/COVIDDeathsJuly262022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAverage daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2290026975655360821\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2290026975655360821","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2290026975655360821"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2290026975655360821"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/wednesday-fomc-statement-durable-goods.html","title":"Wednesday: FOMC Statement, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg8MEL0pmGSdc_M33eBplVnFvrDSs3tPhroqnjonRyxMwjc1P8NUmwRV3qETrVj7vlL0OeH1e0nXGa0HHwNb5N6LzoCsDZ8xK2HXP8Kmbm7JNxoBXgO7aMlE25Z-NgbV4FaK7eZhA6KAuE7fiEBKJKU3wrXKxw2IKi45xlSeoObbCY1JLXXiA\/s72-c\/COVIDDeathsJuly262022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3009268585496779849"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-26T16:42:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-26T16:42:07.322-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"July Vehicle Sales Forecast: Increase to 13.3 million SAAR"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From WardsAuto: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/wardsintelligence.informa.com\/WI966570\/Not-a-Surge-but-July-US-LightVehicle-Sales-Tracking-Above-Past-Two-Months\"\u003ENot a Surge but July U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking Above Past Two Months\u003C\/a\u003E (pay content).\u0026nbsp; Brief excerpt:\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"Wards Intelligence partner LMC Automotive is pegging the entire year at 14.3 million units, meaning the second-half SAAR will have to total 14.8 million units, up from first-half 2022’s 13.7 million ...\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiu8miFAw3RHCCZP4hK_rasC8_-P0Y8Pa91CJ_tATwagWfGiYK6E8VePUqjJaIZd55kf2oCukWPyp2v_V5YAu2AG3hCGWUrfvhGNNSEmBKIWtABjUFQBXnGDdWiFNAZjzSyJ0GkoG4MAkebBJTzxaOBFwM3y6QXMU2IFKN2xPGOyhi2MZ_98g\/s970\/VSForecastJuly2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales Forecast\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiu8miFAw3RHCCZP4hK_rasC8_-P0Y8Pa91CJ_tATwagWfGiYK6E8VePUqjJaIZd55kf2oCukWPyp2v_V5YAu2AG3hCGWUrfvhGNNSEmBKIWtABjUFQBXnGDdWiFNAZjzSyJ0GkoG4MAkebBJTzxaOBFwM3y6QXMU2IFKN2xPGOyhi2MZ_98g\/s320\/VSForecastJuly2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for July (Red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Wards forecast of 13.3 million SAAR, would be up about 2% from last month, and down 9% from a year ago (sales were starting to weaken in mid-2021, due to supply chain issues).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EVehicle sales is usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy (\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-the-fed-interest-rates-and\"\u003Efar behind housing\u003C\/a\u003E).\u0026nbsp; However, this time, vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues, and will probably not be significantly impacted by higher interest rates.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3009268585496779849\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3009268585496779849","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3009268585496779849"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3009268585496779849"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/july-vehicle-sales-forecast-increase-to.html","title":"July Vehicle Sales Forecast: Increase to 13.3 million SAAR"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiu8miFAw3RHCCZP4hK_rasC8_-P0Y8Pa91CJ_tATwagWfGiYK6E8VePUqjJaIZd55kf2oCukWPyp2v_V5YAu2AG3hCGWUrfvhGNNSEmBKIWtABjUFQBXnGDdWiFNAZjzSyJ0GkoG4MAkebBJTzxaOBFwM3y6QXMU2IFKN2xPGOyhi2MZ_98g\/s72-c\/VSForecastJuly2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7478047672286125130"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-26T14:59:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-26T14:59:05.468-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Freddie Mac \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/investors\/financials\/monthly-volume-summaries.html\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.76%, down from 0.80% May.  Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.86% in June 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFreddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese are mortgage loans that are \"three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgHINZY9mBZ1Ek-xufnVP6N0oYMEXY_KbHys2WH4emGdfHNtMPbGSCzIAvKx0JxkQJVacKyPj1oWxW5XroiDZRrC21RdtoS6jWXX4JDzkYpl4nIz9DpgX_fyJn6ksrRSBlcmToMFPfIBbDgILvvjD5uIRpm_mBThKHMs4b_zS9meettXM6B_w\/s955\/FreddieJune2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgHINZY9mBZ1Ek-xufnVP6N0oYMEXY_KbHys2WH4emGdfHNtMPbGSCzIAvKx0JxkQJVacKyPj1oWxW5XroiDZRrC21RdtoS6jWXX4JDzkYpl4nIz9DpgX_fyJn6ksrRSBlcmToMFPfIBbDgILvvjD5uIRpm_mBThKHMs4b_zS9meettXM6B_w\/s320\/FreddieJune2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but\u0026nbsp;are not reported to the credit bureaus.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. \u0026nbsp; Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe serious delinquency rate was at 0.60% just prior to the pandemic - almost back.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7478047672286125130\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7478047672286125130","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7478047672286125130"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7478047672286125130"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/freddie-mac-mortgage-serious.html","title":"Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgHINZY9mBZ1Ek-xufnVP6N0oYMEXY_KbHys2WH4emGdfHNtMPbGSCzIAvKx0JxkQJVacKyPj1oWxW5XroiDZRrC21RdtoS6jWXX4JDzkYpl4nIz9DpgX_fyJn6ksrRSBlcmToMFPfIBbDgILvvjD5uIRpm_mBThKHMs4b_zS9meettXM6B_w\/s72-c\/FreddieJune2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2525254020162824405"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-26T11:48:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-26T11:50:15.351-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"New Home Sales Decrease Sharply, Record Months of Unsold Inventory Under Construction"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/new-home-sales-decrease-sharply-record\"\u003ENew Home Sales Decrease Sharply, Record Months of Unsold Inventory Under Construction\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBrief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg80jB4yN8pZBzGvehhYIKOsUrmUjtyQi_GBs5RAm3N1Lw4eHFLYvk9BAsRuJmMUuYAAb6azrFymV6yc6A1rUz3UEu8ePoxGQw6sqV2gtlJH_EAQvk2miuc-h59OK9vJYM7xSxyVPBpJzgPc4gnbQ4g3DEC7t2lmJHBzBxJqvy73-u_jj-qPw\/s888\/NHSUnderConJune2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Active Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg80jB4yN8pZBzGvehhYIKOsUrmUjtyQi_GBs5RAm3N1Lw4eHFLYvk9BAsRuJmMUuYAAb6azrFymV6yc6A1rUz3UEu8ePoxGQw6sqV2gtlJH_EAQvk2miuc-h59OK9vJYM7xSxyVPBpJzgPc4gnbQ4g3DEC7t2lmJHBzBxJqvy73-u_jj-qPw\/s320\/NHSUnderConJune2022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThere are just over 0.83 months of completed supply (red line).\u003C\/b\u003E This is about two-thirds of the normal level.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe inventory of new homes under construction is at 6.22 months \u003C\/b\u003E(blue line) - well above the normal level. This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints. \u003Cb\u003EThis is the all-time record; above the previous record set in 1980.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd a record \u003Cb\u003E110 thousand homes have not been started\u003C\/b\u003E - about 2.24 months of supply (grey line) - more than double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices and demand.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2525254020162824405\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2525254020162824405","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2525254020162824405"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2525254020162824405"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/new-home-sales-decrease-sharply-record.html","title":"New Home Sales Decrease Sharply, Record Months of Unsold Inventory Under Construction"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg80jB4yN8pZBzGvehhYIKOsUrmUjtyQi_GBs5RAm3N1Lw4eHFLYvk9BAsRuJmMUuYAAb6azrFymV6yc6A1rUz3UEu8ePoxGQw6sqV2gtlJH_EAQvk2miuc-h59OK9vJYM7xSxyVPBpJzgPc4gnbQ4g3DEC7t2lmJHBzBxJqvy73-u_jj-qPw\/s72-c\/NHSUnderConJune2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5052482344015391761"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-26T10:09:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-26T14:00:38.761-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 590,000 Annual Rate in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrs\/pdf\/newressales.pdf\"\u003Ereports\u003C\/a\u003E New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 590 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe previous three months were revised down significantly. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ESales of new single‐family houses in June 2022 were at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000\u003C\/b\u003E, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.   This is 8.1 percent below the revised May rate of 642,000 and is 17.4 percent below the June 2021 estimate of 714,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEilj3QFnKLe6r-H0IrfhPyGLr15pNg1jCvCIBgxKzUO_zcnXt9G6x1AM5wBkJ9dQHaHUZJIH-zh017f2rEctV5B3cAagWyT2hHwbb4j41NN60yvzTDiY74V6XGVzlcAhzjJVb9qYrSxeMJ3DOVwkISbkVdWtkVgLbt9iNGaP3PqhCeXRyZGww\/s1077\/NHSJune2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEilj3QFnKLe6r-H0IrfhPyGLr15pNg1jCvCIBgxKzUO_zcnXt9G6x1AM5wBkJ9dQHaHUZJIH-zh017f2rEctV5B3cAagWyT2hHwbb4j41NN60yvzTDiY74V6XGVzlcAhzjJVb9qYrSxeMJ3DOVwkISbkVdWtkVgLbt9iNGaP3PqhCeXRyZGww\/s320\/NHSJune2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENew home sales are now below pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjpSukRrDUfjOkOGIZ8kUntfYyI5lTGhOE8NvsoiFKknFOx3sizFUiEMIH3mHlJ1kkwf-987gv9ay5HcEdn3F2I3QoUL08b-lPn5dp1LzjXEWsZ9KbFzL8uU6CBr7kiEvKnESC8hdBWdlFsFPDPdS33Tj5H4MqGine6xa1xtEesPUt9js4yWg\/s1022\/NHSMonthsJune2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales, Months of Supply\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjpSukRrDUfjOkOGIZ8kUntfYyI5lTGhOE8NvsoiFKknFOx3sizFUiEMIH3mHlJ1kkwf-987gv9ay5HcEdn3F2I3QoUL08b-lPn5dp1LzjXEWsZ9KbFzL8uU6CBr7kiEvKnESC8hdBWdlFsFPDPdS33Tj5H4MqGine6xa1xtEesPUt9js4yWg\/s320\/NHSMonthsJune2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe months of supply increased in June to 9.3 months from 8.4 months in May. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.  The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 457,000.  This represents a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate.\"\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjQ6M8LnlvItMNwk2g1ymfLTb9M7gX9g1Bq-6p1kWS0fJGO3erzJL35dEz3DB6SbadfD-Anf0E11YIvLbFrtZ-j04ODaBGcXBOFWrRJyQmR_2oGxVnQt54rl0jhSKeuIJHRJD4SswRcfogNbQRXXunDyJEAScUHVdbqpO2bUyPslBkvqh4WfQ\/s1007\/NHSNSAJune2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales, NSA\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjQ6M8LnlvItMNwk2g1ymfLTb9M7gX9g1Bq-6p1kWS0fJGO3erzJL35dEz3DB6SbadfD-Anf0E11YIvLbFrtZ-j04ODaBGcXBOFWrRJyQmR_2oGxVnQt54rl0jhSKeuIJHRJD4SswRcfogNbQRXXunDyJEAScUHVdbqpO2bUyPslBkvqh4WfQ\/s320\/NHSNSAJune2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn June 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA).  Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe all-time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was well below expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly. I'll have more later today."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5052482344015391761\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5052482344015391761","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5052482344015391761"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5052482344015391761"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/new-home-sales-decrease-sharply-to.html","title":"New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 590,000 Annual Rate in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEilj3QFnKLe6r-H0IrfhPyGLr15pNg1jCvCIBgxKzUO_zcnXt9G6x1AM5wBkJ9dQHaHUZJIH-zh017f2rEctV5B3cAagWyT2hHwbb4j41NN60yvzTDiY74V6XGVzlcAhzjJVb9qYrSxeMJ3DOVwkISbkVdWtkVgLbt9iNGaP3PqhCeXRyZGww\/s72-c\/NHSJune2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2733725686895040074"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-26T09:41:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-26T09:41:01.309-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on May Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Increases"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-index-up-197\"\u003ECase-Shiller National Index up 19.7% Year-over-year in May\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EBoth the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for May were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “May” is a 3-month average of March, April and May closing prices. May closing prices include some contracts signed in January, so there is a significant lag to this data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjBOLM7IKuIGhbCTTctsSvgwUCnSK27i1Qi2qyiowwihhRGzDoeCXSeRx8s8pFwhp8btMMM7sEhESejmRW8nvWuc8uCRKdxNXJI3FKnYHRutJ3Vr5VINiGT_s5PtXbtHCyX3Sl1eL4Ow2jg7FakQ58yNnB_vZk5FhbuLMeUvs5eOt4Ttgcueg\/s922\/CSMoMMay2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller MoM House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjBOLM7IKuIGhbCTTctsSvgwUCnSK27i1Qi2qyiowwihhRGzDoeCXSeRx8s8pFwhp8btMMM7sEhESejmRW8nvWuc8uCRKdxNXJI3FKnYHRutJ3Vr5VINiGT_s5PtXbtHCyX3Sl1eL4Ow2jg7FakQ58yNnB_vZk5FhbuLMeUvs5eOt4Ttgcueg\/s320\/CSMoMMay2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe MoM increase in Case-Shiller was at 1.04%. This was the smallest MoM increase since July 2020, and since this includes closings in March and April, this suggests price growth has slowed sharply.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2733725686895040074\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2733725686895040074","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2733725686895040074"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2733725686895040074"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/comments-on-may-case-shiller-and-fhfa.html","title":"Comments on May Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Increases"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjBOLM7IKuIGhbCTTctsSvgwUCnSK27i1Qi2qyiowwihhRGzDoeCXSeRx8s8pFwhp8btMMM7sEhESejmRW8nvWuc8uCRKdxNXJI3FKnYHRutJ3Vr5VINiGT_s5PtXbtHCyX3Sl1eL4Ow2jg7FakQ58yNnB_vZk5FhbuLMeUvs5eOt4Ttgcueg\/s72-c\/CSMoMMay2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5462487812185664176"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-26T09:10:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-26T09:11:00.126-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.7% year-over-year in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"S\u0026amp;P\/Case-Shiller \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/my.spindices.com\/index-family\/real-estate\/sp-corelogic-case-shiller\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the monthly Home Price Indices for May (\"May\" is a 3-month average of March, April and May prices).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom S\u0026amp;P: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/spdji\/en\/documents\/indexnews\/announcements\/20220726-1454540\/1454540_cshomeprice-release-0726.pdf\"\u003ES\u0026amp;P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 19.7% In May\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe S\u0026amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census  divisions, reported\u003Cb\u003E a 19.7% annual gain in May\u003C\/b\u003E, down from 20.6% in the previous month. The 10-City  Composite annual increase came in at 19.0%, down from 19.6% in the previous month. The 20-City  Composite posted a 20.5% year-over-year gain, down from 21.2% in the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in May.  Tampa led the way with a 36.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami with a 34.0%  increase, and Dallas with a 30.8% increase. Four of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the  year ending May 2022 versus the year ending April 2022. \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EBefore seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.5% month-over-month increase in  May, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAfter seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and  the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.3%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn May, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Housing data for May 2022 continued strong, as price gains decelerated slightly from very high levels,”  says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S\u0026amp;P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose by 19.7%  for the 12 months ended May, down from April’s 20.6% year-over-year gain. We see a similar pattern in the 10-City Composite (up 19.0% in May vs. 19.6% in April) and in the 20-City Composite (+20.5% vs.  +21.2%). Despite this deceleration, growth rates are still extremely robust, with all three composites at  or above the 98th percentile historically\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhaYA3YTJlpMJpQJ30knnKLHR1QBzrzbCgD2kW8scRxW93wo2XnZCIuvDmQalrLwFMF3TfXq9ZGnqAvNOTGq9CJ0zHHSIhKb6VkjWnEdWRztJe7us6Yn-z_aXAV8hv-dnNd6cN5nRjo2UZ0Y3HJnB6GuOuanWlF3jB_tvAkPzUmeYFooznxTg\/s1031\/CSMay2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhaYA3YTJlpMJpQJ30knnKLHR1QBzrzbCgD2kW8scRxW93wo2XnZCIuvDmQalrLwFMF3TfXq9ZGnqAvNOTGq9CJ0zHHSIhKb6VkjWnEdWRztJe7us6Yn-z_aXAV8hv-dnNd6cN5nRjo2UZ0Y3HJnB6GuOuanWlF3jB_tvAkPzUmeYFooznxTg\/s320\/CSMay2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Composite 10 index is up 1.3% in May (SA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Composite 20 index is up 1.3% (SA) in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe National index is 60% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.0% (SA) in May. \u0026nbsp;The National index is up 119% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgDPgok66Ozm6Rf3Kh8iTGTztkf5CIj1Wm2PpuwaKXJ1NVjyNLAScVepmvYhhI6OUIGdbw9VrwVs_x5F3xNYO7FehFFna50VBGuDWZGfJ-MZTEKDFRs-IKpDdqCa40c9Ad7_dkMfFqCfibJ2fDo1xgCEXYvUobD52AG9gwkTeYITbujtVkTLQ\/s1023\/CSYoYMay2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgDPgok66Ozm6Rf3Kh8iTGTztkf5CIj1Wm2PpuwaKXJ1NVjyNLAScVepmvYhhI6OUIGdbw9VrwVs_x5F3xNYO7FehFFna50VBGuDWZGfJ-MZTEKDFRs-IKpDdqCa40c9Ad7_dkMfFqCfibJ2fDo1xgCEXYvUobD52AG9gwkTeYITbujtVkTLQ\/s320\/CSYoYMay2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Composite 10 SA is up 19.0% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; The Composite 20 SA is up 20.5% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe National index SA is up 19.7% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPrice increases were slightly lower than expectations.\u0026nbsp; I'll have more later."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5462487812185664176\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5462487812185664176","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5462487812185664176"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5462487812185664176"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html","title":"Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 19.7% year-over-year in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhaYA3YTJlpMJpQJ30knnKLHR1QBzrzbCgD2kW8scRxW93wo2XnZCIuvDmQalrLwFMF3TfXq9ZGnqAvNOTGq9CJ0zHHSIhKb6VkjWnEdWRztJe7us6Yn-z_aXAV8hv-dnNd6cN5nRjo2UZ0Y3HJnB6GuOuanWlF3jB_tvAkPzUmeYFooznxTg\/s72-c\/CSMay2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8558436431087046627"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-25T20:55:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-25T20:55:00.321-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhIK9uFI-M4T6d2U0Ts4jUW7D-6yeSDsyRX8MO2yM_XXCAfArMnbJciKJ589WdzT3jW9Ao2NtZCVVeeAdjUDZIRrAEoljJn9xaKACKRvxP1k-OVGsdMfFvinJ02N6-QpETE0A6Dv3M4Ozfv0QmdOrxEdqSP9t0dQfSG6Cmpfq7iIqAY96SU8w\/s411\/RatesJuly252022.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhIK9uFI-M4T6d2U0Ts4jUW7D-6yeSDsyRX8MO2yM_XXCAfArMnbJciKJ589WdzT3jW9Ao2NtZCVVeeAdjUDZIRrAEoljJn9xaKACKRvxP1k-OVGsdMfFvinJ02N6-QpETE0A6Dv3M4Ozfv0QmdOrxEdqSP9t0dQfSG6Cmpfq7iIqAY96SU8w\/s320\/RatesJuly252022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ETuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 9:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003ES\u0026amp;P\/Case-Shiller House Price Index\u003C\/b\u003E for May. The consensus is for a 21.0% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also at 9:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EFHFA House Price Index\u003C\/b\u003E for May. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003ENew Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 666 thousand SAAR, down from 696 thousand in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also at 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003ERichmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHospitalizations have almost quadrupled from the lows in April 2022.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E120,032\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E129,355\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E33,226\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E34,347\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E365\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E380\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhtU-SFb6N2Y3Cqrvx8czmwET2ZgzqluCUn4bLiBkXbL6RnIbwwUkHj74epmnOWWLfYEYh3R0Bd9AZ89Js8G66Iqwm-JTZQke4sncohfe9pxet9gSd0DqrLpIOTCRrAyTKvpbX4mZopwcuI289mEBXDXXaab4Eh3nCpUPpm4xn3LiQqQaYlJQ\/s1198\/COVIDDeathsJuly252022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhtU-SFb6N2Y3Cqrvx8czmwET2ZgzqluCUn4bLiBkXbL6RnIbwwUkHj74epmnOWWLfYEYh3R0Bd9AZ89Js8G66Iqwm-JTZQke4sncohfe9pxet9gSd0DqrLpIOTCRrAyTKvpbX4mZopwcuI289mEBXDXXaab4Eh3nCpUPpm4xn3LiQqQaYlJQ\/s320\/COVIDDeathsJuly252022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAverage daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8558436431087046627\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8558436431087046627","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8558436431087046627"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8558436431087046627"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/tuesday-new-home-sales-case-shiller.html","title":"Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Richmond Fed Mfg"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhIK9uFI-M4T6d2U0Ts4jUW7D-6yeSDsyRX8MO2yM_XXCAfArMnbJciKJ589WdzT3jW9Ao2NtZCVVeeAdjUDZIRrAEoljJn9xaKACKRvxP1k-OVGsdMfFvinJ02N6-QpETE0A6Dv3M4Ozfv0QmdOrxEdqSP9t0dQfSG6Cmpfq7iIqAY96SU8w\/s72-c\/RatesJuly252022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-958326636720354954"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-25T15:09:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-25T15:09:18.693-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Will Housing Inventory Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/will-housing-inventory-follow-the\"\u003EWill Housing Inventory Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe next couple of months will be important for housing inventory.  Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern and peak in the summer?  Or will inventory peak later in the year (like October or November)?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/what-will-happen-with-house-prices\"\u003Ecurrent outlook on house prices\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cb\u003Eassumes that inventory will continue to increase into the Fall\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhfA4s6JfB0ApCRscILhU6di-610SeH0QvADB_n76VPRT70HVcl_nIzy65cX8EZXZOtsMGBC8OZaV4mzWlsORtA2ztFpCUq-oHIJOsm0eOlLfbAucVuyJLBX3hkYmMsuLJncKlomZ8lpIt-4RZndLwyDRHZNOmh0LfoaNpBCedzElllVnBR9w\/s733\/AltosInv2019July25.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Active Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhfA4s6JfB0ApCRscILhU6di-610SeH0QvADB_n76VPRT70HVcl_nIzy65cX8EZXZOtsMGBC8OZaV4mzWlsORtA2ztFpCUq-oHIJOsm0eOlLfbAucVuyJLBX3hkYmMsuLJncKlomZ8lpIt-4RZndLwyDRHZNOmh0LfoaNpBCedzElllVnBR9w\/s320\/AltosInv2019July25.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph uses the Altos inventory data and shows the trend comparing to the same week in 2020 and 2019. The dotted red line is the recent trend compared to 2020 - and at the current pace, inventory will be up compared to 2020 in late August. The dashed grey line is comparing to 2019, and based on the current trend, it is possible inventory will be back to 2019 levels by the beginning of 2023.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/958326636720354954\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=958326636720354954","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/958326636720354954"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/958326636720354954"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/will-housing-inventory-follow-normal.html","title":"Will Housing Inventory Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhfA4s6JfB0ApCRscILhU6di-610SeH0QvADB_n76VPRT70HVcl_nIzy65cX8EZXZOtsMGBC8OZaV4mzWlsORtA2ztFpCUq-oHIJOsm0eOlLfbAucVuyJLBX3hkYmMsuLJncKlomZ8lpIt-4RZndLwyDRHZNOmh0LfoaNpBCedzElllVnBR9w\/s72-c\/AltosInv2019July25.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3411012908238068659"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-25T11:19:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-25T11:19:49.462-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in June; Remains Well below Pre-Pandemic Levels"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Black Knight: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/category\/press-releases\/\"\u003EBlack Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosure Starts Edge Higher in June but Remain Well Below Pre-Pandemic Levels\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EThe national delinquency rate rose nine basis points from May to reach 2.84%\u003C\/b\u003E after hitting consecutive record lows in each of the prior three months\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Increases were broad-based – the number of borrowers a single payment past due rose 5%, while 90-day delinquencies broke a 21-month streak of improvement with a modest 1% uptick from the prior month\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Foreclosure starts were also up 27% in June – still 40% below pre-pandemic levels – marking a 441% year-over-year increase, a significant rise from pandemic-driven lows\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Starts also represented the highest share (4%) of serious delinquencies since March 2020, but less than half the rate in the years leading up to the pandemic\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EActive foreclosure inventory rose by 16K\u003C\/b\u003E in the month as volumes continue to slowly \u003Cb\u003Ecome off the record lows brought on by widespread moratoriums\u003C\/b\u003E and forbearance protections in 2020\/21\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Prepayment activity was down another 7% in June with prepays now down by 64% from the same time last year as rising rates put downward pressure on both purchase and refinance lending\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAccording to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent increased 3.3% in June compared to May and decreased 35% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBlack Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.84% in June, up from 2.75% in May.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased in June to 0.53%, from 0.50% in May.\u0026nbsp; This is increasing from very low levels due to the foreclosure moratoriums.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 809,000\u0026nbsp;properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 45,000 properties\u0026nbsp;year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ctable border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"2\" style=\"width: 540px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003EBlack Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EJune\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E2022\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EMay\u003Cbr \/\u003E2022\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EJune\u003Cbr \/\u003E2021\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EJune\u003Cbr \/\u003E2020\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDelinquent\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.84%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.75%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.37%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7.59%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EIn Foreclosure\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.53%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.50%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.27%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.36%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003ENumber of properties:\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENumber of properties\u003Cbr \/\u003Ethat are delinquent,\u003Cbr \/\u003Ebut not in foreclosure:\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,511,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,461,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,320,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4,034,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENumber of properties\u003Cbr \/\u003Ein foreclosure\u003Cbr \/\u003Epre-sale inventory:\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E190,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E174,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E145,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E192,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ETotal Properties\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,700,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,635,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,466,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4,226,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3411012908238068659\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3411012908238068659","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3411012908238068659"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3411012908238068659"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/black-knight-mortgage-delinquency-rate.html","title":"Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increased in June; Remains Well below Pre-Pandemic Levels"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6976222491881474970"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-25T09:05:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-25T09:05:37.470-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Inventory July 25th Update: Up 30.5% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003EInventory is increasing rapidly.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003EInventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is \u003Cb\u003Enow up 118%\u003C\/b\u003E since then.\u0026nbsp; More than double!\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos reports inventory is up 30.5% year-over-year and is now 20.2% above the peak last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjUVnFebbkgU1dKmvfD3FgWk9-j3H0rEOvbJum2hvU4McW8kr7OIdOaGT2q38B_RlCkB2WRkEvGQw8qF87yyuE8FT7MzWc4dGTkDsx-yMA7Pc3IogaIZdk5guRo9AjNe5Myjg-j04xeBCPLDBforQ6vkbo9ow1NEsatPlSe3D945ITu3VkPAg\/s1178\/AltosJuly252022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjUVnFebbkgU1dKmvfD3FgWk9-j3H0rEOvbJum2hvU4McW8kr7OIdOaGT2q38B_RlCkB2WRkEvGQw8qF87yyuE8FT7MzWc4dGTkDsx-yMA7Pc3IogaIZdk5guRo9AjNe5Myjg-j04xeBCPLDBforQ6vkbo9ow1NEsatPlSe3D945ITu3VkPAg\/s320\/AltosJuly252022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs of July 22nd, inventory was at 526 thousand (7-day average), compared to 509 thousand the prior week.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory was up\u0026nbsp;3.3% from the previous week.\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E Inventory is increasing much faster than normal for this time of year (both in percentage terms and in total inventory added).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory is still historically low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 30.5% from 403 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 17.9% from 640 thousand.\u0026nbsp; Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 45.8% from 969 thousand.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHere are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 17.9% according to Altos)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 45.8%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjWaKbIWLCicRAyAFHTCbyZIImbbCB4Ujf60A-T_cBXFAeGQgT9-HIMzFkflV0srwooPVsFHU0E8i9eFUqi5gyPd6LiEq4Qi-XTpl3urC7uW4W853qF_qpQkQejZKqH2XTYUZnzjqibnkvGDmiPvhZZQ1zj4IXdzJWv66obGIoiGDNFv0GKaQ\/s798\/AltosYoYJuly252022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjWaKbIWLCicRAyAFHTCbyZIImbbCB4Ujf60A-T_cBXFAeGQgT9-HIMzFkflV0srwooPVsFHU0E8i9eFUqi5gyPd6LiEq4Qi-XTpl3urC7uW4W853qF_qpQkQejZKqH2XTYUZnzjqibnkvGDmiPvhZZQ1zj4IXdzJWv66obGIoiGDNFv0GKaQ\/s320\/AltosYoYJuly252022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ETwo years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E Based on the recent increases in inventory, \u003Cb\u003Emy current estimate is inventory will be up compared to 2020 in late August of this year\u003C\/b\u003E (next month), and back to 2019 levels at the beginning of 2023.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6976222491881474970\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6976222491881474970","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6976222491881474970"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6976222491881474970"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/housing-inventory-july-25th-update-up.html","title":"Housing Inventory July 25th Update: Up 30.5% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjUVnFebbkgU1dKmvfD3FgWk9-j3H0rEOvbJum2hvU4McW8kr7OIdOaGT2q38B_RlCkB2WRkEvGQw8qF87yyuE8FT7MzWc4dGTkDsx-yMA7Pc3IogaIZdk5guRo9AjNe5Myjg-j04xeBCPLDBforQ6vkbo9ow1NEsatPlSe3D945ITu3VkPAg\/s72-c\/AltosJuly252022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4540426732179549193"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-25T08:16:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-25T08:16:34.590-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.\u0026nbsp; Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices.  Apple has discontinued \"Apple mobility\", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe TSA is providing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.tsa.gov\/coronavirus\/passenger-throughput\"\u003Edaily travel numbers\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of July 24th.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiI4211sxgazSJ7P3YPnxfBCAP_ciD_9FMFb87ZPJcr-Ob9iwRVJbc8xaiFVW7iGWllu6s4AcYUYm3VXFtiCfJsBV8YW4eKOgHV72_RouJnzRIt6RrtqH2o6Vb5JqAL5HoaPQGTu3z1Vkkva1mvDsM28dySDq_WYLHIbkvCNaTiijwjdD-N8A\/s1033\/TSAJuly252022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"TSA Traveler Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiI4211sxgazSJ7P3YPnxfBCAP_ciD_9FMFb87ZPJcr-Ob9iwRVJbc8xaiFVW7iGWllu6s4AcYUYm3VXFtiCfJsBV8YW4eKOgHV72_RouJnzRIt6RrtqH2o6Vb5JqAL5HoaPQGTu3z1Vkkva1mvDsM28dySDq_WYLHIbkvCNaTiijwjdD-N8A\/s320\/TSAJuly252022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe \u003Cb\u003Edashed line is the percent of 2019\u003C\/b\u003E for the seven-day average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 7-day average is down 12.1% from the same day in 2019 (87.9% of 2019).\u0026nbsp; (Dashed line)\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAir travel - as a percent of 2019 - has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019 - with some ups and downs, usually related to the timing of holidays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiXtCj4kxrg4JsGTKsNyGLyfUBsUYvCQSa4_7k7HoESwQvDnhYUhnroG-gxYW4cPBjMAflW1Qaq6VGZ6ff46NOnumk00gGey5Y5bb0OEFdYyFubn1KmV6XuaMHgpR6eCIZw4jHseX8boyG5lKrhpymBEQT1b-xuqClU-ppRyWqE3MePcNlJXA\/s890\/MovieJuly242022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Move Box Office\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiXtCj4kxrg4JsGTKsNyGLyfUBsUYvCQSa4_7k7HoESwQvDnhYUhnroG-gxYW4cPBjMAflW1Qaq6VGZ6ff46NOnumk00gGey5Y5bb0OEFdYyFubn1KmV6XuaMHgpR6eCIZw4jHseX8boyG5lKrhpymBEQT1b-xuqClU-ppRyWqE3MePcNlJXA\/s320\/MovieJuly242022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBlack is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 21st.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMovie ticket sales were at $206 million last week, down about 18% from the median for the week.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjeOz7S1faxSIOBNbAQzNAI8HzaywEwhECB9XmsE61Q4axHzD-YTlwEkhUlUqflHmou8LA4U333T2KI2wI5veyLbcIqrTT11rzML4I3SDVysByTNcMrcCHwQOafyM-I-diwht_7ZofRfrTiNMTiP7ZT-3_iwjjklxkM8Fn-ut99HJbxbuYXSw\/s1034\/HotelJuly222022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjeOz7S1faxSIOBNbAQzNAI8HzaywEwhECB9XmsE61Q4axHzD-YTlwEkhUlUqflHmou8LA4U333T2KI2wI5veyLbcIqrTT11rzML4I3SDVysByTNcMrcCHwQOafyM-I-diwht_7ZofRfrTiNMTiP7ZT-3_iwjjklxkM8Fn-ut99HJbxbuYXSw\/s320\/HotelJuly222022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is through July 16th.  The occupancy rate was down 7.4% compared to the same week in 2019.  \u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENotes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjcwHLiYBipATG_cJqiugwIdwZ7TmyOcVQ08k7Acjo-B7N_bAzl5hQMB4whPX42tyyfE6KZ0fa-TtIISZS9_uZUxzCc5zLyU9pQKHmxrEvWxKljSA43z5lElC_2ZSmhnCLd8KSAKl9FMt16FS8ISvTAnnx4F7FO_PS39hTAHvNFC7gIlvWEVA\/s899\/GasolineJuly242022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"gasoline Consumption\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjcwHLiYBipATG_cJqiugwIdwZ7TmyOcVQ08k7Acjo-B7N_bAzl5hQMB4whPX42tyyfE6KZ0fa-TtIISZS9_uZUxzCc5zLyU9pQKHmxrEvWxKljSA43z5lElC_2ZSmhnCLd8KSAKl9FMt16FS8ISvTAnnx4F7FO_PS39hTAHvNFC7gIlvWEVA\/s320\/GasolineJuly242022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the \u003Cb\u003Esame week of 2019\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBlue is for 2020.\u0026nbsp; Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs of July 15th, gasoline supplied was down 7.5% compared to the same week in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERecently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- New York City Subway Usage -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is some interesting data on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ENew York subway usage\u003C\/a\u003E (HT BR).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhOxfLt6JdeFm_w45p4NnxQZZMFv9bjPxf-1WeEmpmWnBUOEY6M9o0QGpdARfwcnLtVqlKF9hd39gJInOUwGiXl_bglsmkFLWa9ud-F2vi5uKkd9t4P9xxhS_KWq6299uKscN6Sq-7JfRl3JSPi8JBB5vFcCWtvqWi9Dt6ihgA5n9t4kDB6fA\/s618\/NYCTransitJuly242022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New York City Subway Usage\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhOxfLt6JdeFm_w45p4NnxQZZMFv9bjPxf-1WeEmpmWnBUOEY6M9o0QGpdARfwcnLtVqlKF9hd39gJInOUwGiXl_bglsmkFLWa9ud-F2vi5uKkd9t4P9xxhS_KWq6299uKscN6Sq-7JfRl3JSPi8JBB5vFcCWtvqWi9Dt6ihgA5n9t4kDB6fA\/s320\/NYCTransitJuly242022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ETodd W Schneider\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis graph shows weekly turnstile entries since 2015.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003ECurrently traffic is less than half of normal.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is through Friday, July 22nd.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHe notes: \"Data updates weekly from the MTA’s \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/web.mta.info\/developers\/turnstile.html\"\u003Epublic turnstile data\u003C\/a\u003E, usually on Saturday mornings\".\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4540426732179549193\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4540426732179549193","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4540426732179549193"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4540426732179549193"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/five-high-frequency-indicators-for_25.html","title":"Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiI4211sxgazSJ7P3YPnxfBCAP_ciD_9FMFb87ZPJcr-Ob9iwRVJbc8xaiFVW7iGWllu6s4AcYUYm3VXFtiCfJsBV8YW4eKOgHV72_RouJnzRIt6RrtqH2o6Vb5JqAL5HoaPQGTu3z1Vkkva1mvDsM28dySDq_WYLHIbkvCNaTiijwjdD-N8A\/s72-c\/TSAJuly252022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4332891721682070571"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-24T18:41:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-24T18:41:29.357-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/schedule-for-week-of-july-24-2022.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of July 24, 2022\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/fomc-preview-75bp-hike.html\"\u003EFOMC Preview: 75bp Hike\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EChicago Fed National Activity Index\u003C\/b\u003E for June.  This is a composite index of other data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EDallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 are down 5 and DOW futures are down 55 (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOil prices were mixed over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $95.51 per barrel and Brent at $104.18 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $72, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are up 33% year-over-year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $4.33 per gallon.  A year ago, prices were at $3.15 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.18 per gallon year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4332891721682070571\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4332891721682070571","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4332891721682070571"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4332891721682070571"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/sunday-night-futures_24.html","title":"Sunday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5771042735255099415"},"published":{"$t":"2022-07-24T09:46:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-07-24T09:46:30.248-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"FOMC Preview: 75bp Hike"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Expectations are the FOMC will announce a \u003Cb\u003E75bp rate increase in the federal funds rate\u003C\/b\u003E at the meeting this week.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom Merrill Lynch: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\"We look for the Fed to lift the target range for the federal funds rate by 75bp to 2.25-2.5% while keeping its balance sheet normalization policies in place. ... We look for Chair Powell to repeat similar messages from the June FOMC meeting; namely that inflation is too high, the Fed is committed to restoring price stability, and some pain may be needed to bring inflation lower. Looking ahead, we expect another 50bp increase in September and two additional 25bp rate hikes by year end, which would bring the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.25-3.50%.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman Sachs: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\"We expect a 75bp rate hike at the July FOMC meeting next week. ... The key question for next week is what guidance Chair Powell will give about the size of a likely rate hike in September. We expect that Fed officials will want to keep their options open and will avoid any strong guidance. ... We continue to expect a 50bp hike in September and 25bp hikes in November and December to a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5%.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAnalysts will be looking for comments on the size of future rate hikes.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EProjections will not be released at this\u0026nbsp;meeting. \u003C\/b\u003EFor\u0026nbsp;review, here are the June \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20220615.htm\"\u003Eprojections\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn June, most participants expected thirteen 25bp rate hikes in 2022. The FOMC raised rates 25 bp in March, 50 bp in May, and 75 bp in June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWall Street forecasts have been revised down further since June due to the ongoing negative impacts from the pandemic. the war in Ukraine and financial tightening.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;For example, from BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\"We now forecast 1.1% GDP growth for 2022 and expect growth to slow to -0.2% in 2023\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 520px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003EGDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EProjection Date\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2022\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2023\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2024\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EJune 2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.5 to 1.9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.3 to 2.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.5 to 2.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EMar 2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.5 to 3.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1 to 2.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.8 to 2.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003Eunemployment rate was at 3.6% in June\u003C\/a\u003E. So far, the economic slowdown has not pushed up the unemployment rate.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 520px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003EUnemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EProjection Date\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2022\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2023\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2024\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EJune 2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.6 to 3.8\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.8 to 4.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.9 to 4.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EMar 2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.4 to 3.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.3 to 3.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.2 to 3.7\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2022\"\u003EAs of May 2022\u003C\/a\u003E, PCE inflation was up 6.3% from May 2021.  This was below the cycle high of 6.6% YoY in March.  Analysts are expecting inflation to decline slowly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 520px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003EInflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EProjection Date\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2022\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2023\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2024\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EJune 2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.0 to 5.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.4 to 3.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.0 to 2.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EMar 2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.1 to 4.7\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.3 to 3.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1 to 2.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2022\"\u003EPCE core inflation\u003C\/a\u003E was up 4.7% in May year-over-year.  This was below the cycle high of 5.3% YoY in February.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 520px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECore Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E \u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EProjection Date\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2022\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2023\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2024\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EJune 2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.2 to 4.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.5 to 3.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1 to 2.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003EMar 2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.9 to 4.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.4 to 3.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1 to 2.4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5771042735255099415\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5771042735255099415","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5771042735255099415"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5771042735255099415"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/07\/fomc-preview-75bp-hike.html","title":"FOMC Preview: 75bp Hike"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});