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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"29023"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2448667255671429620"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-03T17:03:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-03T17:03:52.733-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #2 for 2022:  Will the remaining jobs lost in 2020 return in 2022, or will job growth be sluggish?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier I posted some questions on my blog: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2022.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2022\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) \u003Cb\u003EEmployment:\u003C\/b\u003E Through November 2021, the economy added 6.1 million jobs in 2021.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;This makes 2021 the best year for job growth ever - by far.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;However, there are still 3.9 million fewer jobs than in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).\u0026nbsp; Will the remaining jobs lost in 2020 return in 2022, or will job growth be sluggish?\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELast year, I wrote: \"I think something like 6 to 8 million jobs could be added in 2021\".\u0026nbsp; It looks like close to 6.5 million jobs were added in 2021.\u0026nbsp; The previous record was 4.3 million in 1946 (post-WWII boom).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor review, here is a table of the monthly change in total nonfarm jobs in 2021.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 360px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"3\"\u003EJobs Added per Month in 2021\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ETotal nonfarm (000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E233\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E536\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E785\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E269\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E614\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E962\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,091\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E483\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E379\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E546\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E210\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus forecast is for 400 thousand jobs added in December.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUnfortunately, it appears this will be another difficult winter with the pandemic, and it seems likely job growth will slow over the next couple of months.\u0026nbsp; Also, given slow population growth it seems likely labor force growth will be sluggish in 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy guess is something like 2.5 to 3.0 million jobs could be added in 2022, but it will depend on the pandemic (and policy).\u0026nbsp; This fits with my view of sluggish labor force growth, an increase in the participation rate, and a decline in the unemployment rate.\u0026nbsp; That would mean there are still fewer jobs at the end of 2022, than before the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome thoughts:\u003Cdiv\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-4-for-2022-will-overall.html\"\u003EQuestion #4 for 2022: Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020)?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-5-for-2022-will-core-inflation.html\"\u003EQuestion #5 for 2022: Will the core inflation rate increase or decrease by December 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-6-for-2022-will-fed-raise.html\"\u003EQuestion #6 for 2022: Will the Fed raise rates in 2022? If so, how many times?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E•\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-7-for-2022-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2022: How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2022-housing-credit\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2022-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2022-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2448667255671429620\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2448667255671429620","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2448667255671429620"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2448667255671429620"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-2-for-2022-will-remaining-jobs.html","title":"Question #2 for 2022:  Will the remaining jobs lost in 2020 return in 2022, or will job growth be sluggish?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1841087263084328561"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-03T15:02:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-03T15:02:22.111-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #3 for 2022:  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2022?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier I posted some questions on my blog: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2022.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2022\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) \u003Cb\u003EUnemployment Rate:\u003C\/b\u003E The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November, down 2.5 percentage points year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Currently the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm\"\u003EFOMC is forecasting\u003C\/a\u003E the unemployment rate will be in the 3.4% to 3.7% range in Q4 2022. \u0026nbsp;What will the unemployment rate be in December 2022?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is a graph of the unemployment rate over time:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-F3FhYXvpgQg\/Yaod89IicvI\/AAAAAAAA7qc\/Jv2s3UWrTw0o-v8189oo2c7w8xslhVDBQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1015\/UnemployNov2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"unemployment rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-F3FhYXvpgQg\/Yaod89IicvI\/AAAAAAAA7qc\/Jv2s3UWrTw0o-v8189oo2c7w8xslhVDBQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/UnemployNov2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe unemployment rate decreased in November to 4.2% from 4.6% in October, and down from 6.7% in November 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe unemployment rate is from the household survey (CPS), and the rapid decline in the unemployment rate is due to a combination of job growth and sluggish increase in the participation rate (previous question).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UZ3RyqYKwzU\/YaocuR7QgwI\/AAAAAAAA7qM\/xkisBsGCtsMmtFuu1PfPktl-vz2GbbvpwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1109\/EmployREcessionNov2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UZ3RyqYKwzU\/YaocuR7QgwI\/AAAAAAAA7qM\/xkisBsGCtsMmtFuu1PfPktl-vz2GbbvpwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployREcessionNov2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.  However, the current employment recession, 20 months after the onset, is now significantly better than the worst of the \"Great Recession\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt took several years to recover all the jobs lost following the 2001 and 2007 recessions, and so far, jobs are recovering quicker this time.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bYxOU9YcCSo\/Yaog3ww31gI\/AAAAAAAA7qo\/oVPCvEP6N5c9L2HkoKdzh8I0bEyl2tvxwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1045\/PermanentNov2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bYxOU9YcCSo\/Yaog3ww31gI\/AAAAAAAA7qo\/oVPCvEP6N5c9L2HkoKdzh8I0bEyl2tvxwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PermanentNov2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe third graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the November report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn November, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 1.921 million from 2.126 million in October.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThese jobs will likely be the hardest to recover, so it is a positive that the number of permanent job losers is declining fairly rapidly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EGoldman Sachs expects:\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"With labor demand red hot and enhanced unemployment benefits now expired, we expect the unemployment rate to return to the pre-pandemic 50-year low of 3.5% by the end of 2022.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EDepending on the estimate for the participation rate and job growth (next question), my guess is the unemployment rate will decline into the mid 3% range by December 2022 from the current 4.2%.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome thoughts:\u003Cdiv\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-4-for-2022-will-overall.html\"\u003EQuestion #4 for 2022: Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020)?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-5-for-2022-will-core-inflation.html\"\u003EQuestion #5 for 2022: Will the core inflation rate increase or decrease by December 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-6-for-2022-will-fed-raise.html\"\u003EQuestion #6 for 2022: Will the Fed raise rates in 2022? If so, how many times?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E•\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-7-for-2022-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2022: How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2022-housing-credit\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2022-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2022-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1841087263084328561\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1841087263084328561","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1841087263084328561"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1841087263084328561"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-3-for-2022-what-will.html","title":"Question #3 for 2022:  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2022?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-F3FhYXvpgQg\/Yaod89IicvI\/AAAAAAAA7qc\/Jv2s3UWrTw0o-v8189oo2c7w8xslhVDBQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/UnemployNov2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3819617408099835430"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-03T12:52:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-03T12:53:40.348-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #4 for 2022:  Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020)?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier I posted some questions on my blog: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2022.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2022\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E4) \u003Cb\u003EParticipation Rate:\u003C\/b\u003E In November 2021, the overall participation rate was at 61.8%, up year-over-year from 61.5% in November 2020.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Long term, the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/ecopro.nr0.htm\"\u003EBLS is projecting\u003C\/a\u003E the overall participation rate will decline to 60.4% by 2030 due to demographics.\u0026nbsp; Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020)?\u0026nbsp; What will be the participation rate in December 2022?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe overall labor force participation rate is the percentage of the working age population (16 + years old) in the labor force. \u0026nbsp; A large portion of the decline in the participation rate since 2000 was due to demographics and long-term trends.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-sFjHScu7XdU\/Yaod6_woMCI\/AAAAAAAA7qY\/Ig0YQjzqCkcIBGJx1uW8c-SCXUsdLirJwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1060\/EmployPopNov2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-sFjHScu7XdU\/Yaod6_woMCI\/AAAAAAAA7qY\/Ig0YQjzqCkcIBGJx1uW8c-SCXUsdLirJwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployPopNov2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe Labor Force Participation Rate in November 2021 was at 61.8 (red), down from the pre-pandemic level of 63.4% in February, and up from the pandemic low of 60.2% in April 2020. (Blue is the employment population ratio).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn April 2020, 8.0 million people had left the labor force due to the pandemic.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;By November 2021, about 5.6 million had returned to the labor force, leaving 2.4 million fewer people in the labor force than prior to the pandemic.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;And this doesn't count for growth in the 18+ population.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn November 2021, Goldman Sachs economists put out a research note on the labor force participation rate: Why Isn’t Labor Force Participation Recovering?\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere are few excerpts from the note: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\"While the unemployment rate continues to fall quickly, labor force participation has made no progress since August 2020. ... Most of the 5.0mn persons who have exited the labor force since the start of the pandemic are over age 55 (3.4mn), largely reflecting early (1.5mn) and natural (1mn) retirements that likely won’t reverse. The outlook for prime-age persons who have exited the labor force (1.7mn) is more positive, since very few are discouraged and most still view their exits as temporary.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: The 5 million number for the labor force, probably assumes some normal labor force growth; however, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-updates-on-key-drivers-of\"\u003Eoverall population growth has been dismal\u003C\/a\u003E over the last 2 years (little immigration and large number of deaths).\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003EI'm not confident in Goldman's 5-million-person\u0026nbsp;estimate\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is a graph of the number of missing people by age group (from the CPS household survey).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEinyNxJLET-YmqHN1L0-ei2c9vq5QlsmYqWJ10s5Op4DtrSlFRmJ7JI7dYbB5SJi2GKG9L7xhI1zatBrtxweAFMYl8x1jeuYRfa544GcEyCm88G5MF1QahvGhF5WYG6e9amrjzQDaUFLWMrUV61fy7RgCBd9jJAX7iShsjy0RZxbDKAfjIrNQ=s856\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEinyNxJLET-YmqHN1L0-ei2c9vq5QlsmYqWJ10s5Op4DtrSlFRmJ7JI7dYbB5SJi2GKG9L7xhI1zatBrtxweAFMYl8x1jeuYRfa544GcEyCm88G5MF1QahvGhF5WYG6e9amrjzQDaUFLWMrUV61fy7RgCBd9jJAX7iShsjy0RZxbDKAfjIrNQ=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data is comparing November 2021 to November 2019, using Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data (I compared to November 2019 to minimize the seasonal impact when using NSA data).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPositive numbers are missing workers.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlmost all of the missing employed workers - by this method - are in the 25 to 29 and in the 45 to 59 age groups.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: this is over a 2-year period, and there have been some demographic shifts between cohorts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data would suggest most of the missing workers are prime age or took early retirement (the missing workers in their '50s).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: In September, the BLS released their updated Labor Force projections through 2030.  Their \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/emp\/tables\/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm\"\u003Eprojections\u003C\/a\u003E show the overall Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) declining to 60.4% in 2030.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;We need to remember this demographic trend.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy guess, based on the impact of the pandemic easing, is that most of these people will return to the labor force.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;I don't expect that participation rate to increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4%), but it seems reasonable the participation rate will increase to the mid 62s by year end, before trending down again later in the decade.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome thoughts:\u003Cdiv\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-4-for-2022-will-overall.html\"\u003EQuestion #4 for 2022: Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020)?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-5-for-2022-will-core-inflation.html\"\u003EQuestion #5 for 2022: Will the core inflation rate increase or decrease by December 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-6-for-2022-will-fed-raise.html\"\u003EQuestion #6 for 2022: Will the Fed raise rates in 2022? If so, how many times?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E•\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-7-for-2022-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2022: How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2022-housing-credit\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2022-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2022-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3819617408099835430\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3819617408099835430","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3819617408099835430"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3819617408099835430"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-4-for-2022-will-overall.html","title":"Question #4 for 2022:  Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020)?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-sFjHScu7XdU\/Yaod6_woMCI\/AAAAAAAA7qY\/Ig0YQjzqCkcIBGJx1uW8c-SCXUsdLirJwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EmployPopNov2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5721365155684808919"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-03T10:36:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-03T10:36:21.989-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Construction Spending Increased 0.4% in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/c30\/pdf\/release.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that overall construction spending increased 0.2%:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EConstruction spending during November 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,625.9 billion,\u003Cb\u003E 0.4 percent above the revised October estimate\u003C\/b\u003E of $1,618.8 billion. The November figure is 9.3 percent above the November 2020 estimate of $1,487.2 billion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EPrivate spending increased and public spending decreased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ESpending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,273.6 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised October estimate of $1,265.8 billion. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn November, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $352.3 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised October estimate of $353.0 billion.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEh7Fc29O8qCfPg5ISEo1VlKJ9xINBiqk4J7iDCZLKVx0co35YcP6hi_tp0w4_ADostgLB20DNtS009OQZKyLu7YsbBBr9Fe_nePx8lLggWTePZYP8E5sTnb9jaKvP1GdZj3R0HqOqn2hBeZ0HEbTpgIzAKAi6vVYIzxSuOuz2dILo4-xEjyuw=s1021\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEh7Fc29O8qCfPg5ISEo1VlKJ9xINBiqk4J7iDCZLKVx0co35YcP6hi_tp0w4_ADostgLB20DNtS009OQZKyLu7YsbBBr9Fe_nePx8lLggWTePZYP8E5sTnb9jaKvP1GdZj3R0HqOqn2hBeZ0HEbTpgIzAKAi6vVYIzxSuOuz2dILo4-xEjyuw=s320\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EResidential spending is 17% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENon-residential spending is 15% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars) but has been soft recently.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPublic construction spending is 8% above the peak in March 2009.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhWyaTHTiv1p1TWzuFCfFPhizzJ8HMOCg7IuFd042N1lPxEsHlJkeOtnUt-4h2FoR7awq2TZWxS_6ZyvsgYFEOr6UTX8CfOoOTSJrFFFVMBuIosv-fLvXfyF8KEyfszZnH5tPQ0FYBQao2QagLkOytqy04TvC-a1t1_zbLVb-JsQfCmYAtdSg=s1053\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhWyaTHTiv1p1TWzuFCfFPhizzJ8HMOCg7IuFd042N1lPxEsHlJkeOtnUt-4h2FoR7awq2TZWxS_6ZyvsgYFEOr6UTX8CfOoOTSJrFFFVMBuIosv-fLvXfyF8KEyfszZnH5tPQ0FYBQao2QagLkOytqy04TvC-a1t1_zbLVb-JsQfCmYAtdSg=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, \u003Cb\u003Eprivate residential construction spending is up 16.3%\u003C\/b\u003E.  Non-residential spending is up 6.7% year-over-year.  Public spending is down 0.8% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EConstruction was considered an essential service during the early months of the pandemic in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors.\u0026nbsp; However, some sectors of non-residential have been under pressure.  \u003Cb\u003EFor example, lodging is down 30.7% YoY\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was below consensus expectations of a 0.6% increase in spending; however, construction spending for the previous two months was revised up.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5721365155684808919\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5721365155684808919","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5721365155684808919"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5721365155684808919"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/construction-spending-increased-04-in.html","title":"Construction Spending Increased 0.4% in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEh7Fc29O8qCfPg5ISEo1VlKJ9xINBiqk4J7iDCZLKVx0co35YcP6hi_tp0w4_ADostgLB20DNtS009OQZKyLu7YsbBBr9Fe_nePx8lLggWTePZYP8E5sTnb9jaKvP1GdZj3R0HqOqn2hBeZ0HEbTpgIzAKAi6vVYIzxSuOuz2dILo4-xEjyuw=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4496725884401281426"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-03T10:14:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-03T10:14:48.751-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Inventory January 3rd Update: Inventory Down 5.4% Week-over-week; New Record Low"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ETracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory usually declines sharply over the holidays, and this is a\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003Enew record low for this series.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjsJsKoew9xriBvS4W0O1m02TyCorrwUUj2znjt68VtqsTU7LIMixR12WVoEUg9RZSvVztclyXlo2mtHYn9FZSZqlwImSrIICMmVV9OuIGANLIubQR0UMZj-r1SbkrCfo1JaFacIvQmcGTLym0ZQTWN3E8E7Y3fDQHzsE3slfmn1BH62CVnmA=s1189\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Existing Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjsJsKoew9xriBvS4W0O1m02TyCorrwUUj2znjt68VtqsTU7LIMixR12WVoEUg9RZSvVztclyXlo2mtHYn9FZSZqlwImSrIICMmVV9OuIGANLIubQR0UMZj-r1SbkrCfo1JaFacIvQmcGTLym0ZQTWN3E8E7Y3fDQHzsE3slfmn1BH62CVnmA=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs of December 31st, inventory was at 294 thousand (7-day average), compared to 420 thousand for the same week a year ago.\u0026nbsp; That is a decline of 30.0%.\u0026nbsp; Inventory is down 5.4% from last week.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECompared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 61.5% from 764 thousand.\u0026nbsp; A week ago, inventory was at 310 thousand, and was down 29.0% YoY.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESeasonally, inventory bottomed in April\u003Cb\u003E \u003C\/b\u003E(usually inventory bottoms in January or February). I\u003Cb\u003Enventory last week was about 4.2% below the previous record low set-in early April 2021\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory peaked for the year in early September,\u003Cb\u003E \u003C\/b\u003Ewhen inventory was at 437 thousand (the peak for the year), so inventory is currently off about 32.8% from the peak for 2021.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4496725884401281426\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4496725884401281426","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4496725884401281426"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4496725884401281426"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/housing-inventory-january-3rd-update.html","title":"Housing Inventory January 3rd Update: Inventory Down 5.4% Week-over-week; New Record Low"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjsJsKoew9xriBvS4W0O1m02TyCorrwUUj2znjt68VtqsTU7LIMixR12WVoEUg9RZSvVztclyXlo2mtHYn9FZSZqlwImSrIICMmVV9OuIGANLIubQR0UMZj-r1SbkrCfo1JaFacIvQmcGTLym0ZQTWN3E8E7Y3fDQHzsE3slfmn1BH62CVnmA=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2082383737045621284"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-03T08:58:00.005-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-03T08:58:52.967-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe TSA is providing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.tsa.gov\/coronavirus\/passenger-throughput\"\u003Edaily travel numbers\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of January 1st.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjyrKJdW2Ti1JPun8vMzgbiJSUgwDfTJ33azLXo2vjHWODsbfdszh0EFMdMLYpFAGxxRdNmqr6klITKlOqmkKThZVyQBeHde1d0KCqWtissM2gEZ6WTwV2e8cvZ4odBNEooLkfwpztUHWDkDDFZnoHo-dBDeL6Mx-TZQR4jDrbTKmB6G7b-bQ=s1035\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"TSA Traveler Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjyrKJdW2Ti1JPun8vMzgbiJSUgwDfTJ33azLXo2vjHWODsbfdszh0EFMdMLYpFAGxxRdNmqr6klITKlOqmkKThZVyQBeHde1d0KCqWtissM2gEZ6WTwV2e8cvZ4odBNEooLkfwpztUHWDkDDFZnoHo-dBDeL6Mx-TZQR4jDrbTKmB6G7b-bQ=s320\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 7-day average is down 17.8% from the same day in 2019 (82.2% of 2019).\u0026nbsp; (Dashed line)\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAir travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last five months (with some ups and downs) - but picked up over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIMPORTANT: OpenTable notes: \"we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year.\"  Thanks!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjmODfkb7ULdezXWIWN8FYVMRUfe9a99ziJ70O6oeBdHdkesNDQVuBvKjmLRw0BBkZUeTwnoZZl8BqI4uNLRtftSWAJAbrqHaDbi6Sx_-81aENWHhVeJUjrwmT-VPNReTW7nNYG7tOSAPFDX9Xv8YcGbMMt9ROyqhuHWpn0qssFuB9qmN218Q=s1064\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Diners\" border=\"0\" data-original-width=\"1077\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjmODfkb7ULdezXWIWN8FYVMRUfe9a99ziJ70O6oeBdHdkesNDQVuBvKjmLRw0BBkZUeTwnoZZl8BqI4uNLRtftSWAJAbrqHaDbi6Sx_-81aENWHhVeJUjrwmT-VPNReTW7nNYG7tOSAPFDX9Xv8YcGbMMt9ROyqhuHWpn0qssFuB9qmN218Q=s320\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is updated through January 1, 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is \"a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that this data is for \"\u003Cb\u003Eonly the restaurants that have chosen to reopen\u003C\/b\u003E in a given market\".  \u003Cb\u003ESince some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDining was mostly moving sideways, but there has been some decline recently, probably due to the winter wave of COVID.\u0026nbsp; The 7-day average for the US is down 13% compared to 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgzGz6fU07pwwtmE_pPDyIpGgA3dpG2sksfy8uIJgt0RcJEAEynxzL83p15vZ1uN0NmVzqRWS_3p1GRDLL7UspZX8cgGFWYd6kfNYYrIBxNHEc1x5ue1PEU9FG1p0302Fnk-2VrT5dmzNyTJa40Wwq5HMfbCVu0lNfupPu1QTcwJcuAM4bj1A=s893\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Move Box Office\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgzGz6fU07pwwtmE_pPDyIpGgA3dpG2sksfy8uIJgt0RcJEAEynxzL83p15vZ1uN0NmVzqRWS_3p1GRDLL7UspZX8cgGFWYd6kfNYYrIBxNHEc1x5ue1PEU9FG1p0302Fnk-2VrT5dmzNyTJa40Wwq5HMfbCVu0lNfupPu1QTcwJcuAM4bj1A=s320\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBlue is 2020 and Red is 2021.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 30th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMovie ticket sales were at $204 million last week, down about 44% from the median for the week.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjC_BrKjByhFAB51BwNEvkGj1DiHuOYglCCbUlMbhwFfqpcDOEXGZyBlWlROWKq0P4HIlVUGJkw-BjGO3sGRQL_6KQGAGODttwOh2x3csgrlxf4cmyr5S3q_syyGnzEBRgVInxMfIOND_VDY02_VSekwDYQF6iC1R4pm42uluJBm8L2H6MBKA=s1035\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjC_BrKjByhFAB51BwNEvkGj1DiHuOYglCCbUlMbhwFfqpcDOEXGZyBlWlROWKq0P4HIlVUGJkw-BjGO3sGRQL_6KQGAGODttwOh2x3csgrlxf4cmyr5S3q_syyGnzEBRgVInxMfIOND_VDY02_VSekwDYQF6iC1R4pm42uluJBm8L2H6MBKA=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is through December 18th.  The occupancy rate was up 8.0% compared to the same week in 2019.  Although down compared to 2019, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate is now above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENotes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate will bottom seasonally over the next few weeks.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgaI5GKizXMZPXRSMNBJl24F8Xv0AdsG8a-JlXcLJOYIv20j0E-Fo5EJNyaO9QKWmxQcRXKeJGZMPGxk8oRmCi3fFVQNTQBV6AQEBBGdVba5O-mMRMNDOb6bUjy8IRWdMzqB9kDyzrNjivYxgV4Wr-KsnehFgbsUrAPGbzge8DaJ8BVBobrCQ=s907\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"gasoline Consumption\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgaI5GKizXMZPXRSMNBJl24F8Xv0AdsG8a-JlXcLJOYIv20j0E-Fo5EJNyaO9QKWmxQcRXKeJGZMPGxk8oRmCi3fFVQNTQBV6AQEBBGdVba5O-mMRMNDOb6bUjy8IRWdMzqB9kDyzrNjivYxgV4Wr-KsnehFgbsUrAPGbzge8DaJ8BVBobrCQ=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the \u003Cb\u003Esame week of 2019\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBlue is for 2020.\u0026nbsp; Red is for 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs of December 24th, gasoline supplied was up 8.5% compared to the same week in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere have been 13 weeks this year that gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - so consumption is running close to 2019 levels now.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.apple.com\/covid19\/mobility\"\u003EApple mobility\u003C\/a\u003E. From Apple: \"This data is generated by counting \u003Cb\u003Ethe number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions\u003C\/b\u003E in select countries\/regions, sub-regions, and cities.\"  This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/mei.aspx\"\u003EMobility and Engagement Index\u003C\/a\u003E.  However the index is set \"relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February\", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjhqlSTLShb8ie_uajokA4_xBU0jzFdeDsbcFX0LDdGJxQqs9lTWWb6z1EIqKFycM05I3krxCq9jqJoaocogisuqWxQZpaeb-VUfKI8rEhDs7esn-4ANNeGxN-AIxRiZMyRT0624l7O3eYzRHXVoCc3ht9fgV3M9Q4M8mw_0nrsKUqhEcE0Kw=s1075\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Apple Mobility Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjhqlSTLShb8ie_uajokA4_xBU0jzFdeDsbcFX0LDdGJxQqs9lTWWb6z1EIqKFycM05I3krxCq9jqJoaocogisuqWxQZpaeb-VUfKI8rEhDs7esn-4ANNeGxN-AIxRiZMyRT0624l7O3eYzRHXVoCc3ht9fgV3M9Q4M8mw_0nrsKUqhEcE0Kw=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data is through December 31st\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003Efor the United States and several selected cities.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020.   This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted.   People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 81% of the January 2020 level.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENew York City is doing OK by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down significantly (next graph).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- New York City Subway Usage -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is some interesting data on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ENew York subway usage\u003C\/a\u003E (HT BR).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEis8q5Ue_P6TtrIl0qS-0_GJ1zXozumFbmU5c-TwLhnYRNmcnd8g5mju076hsAakMKTUqeggLrxzAka33vv3AZqdQnMO4_MF52yFEdfPwGR2c5TOrdrMrhwDCIq7_BT70ASGwBzx4vlwg3vOoFWvEBavIs_8rV3q2ejscKFIOzHp6lAcH-aMg=s617\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New York City Subway Usage\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEis8q5Ue_P6TtrIl0qS-0_GJ1zXozumFbmU5c-TwLhnYRNmcnd8g5mju076hsAakMKTUqeggLrxzAka33vv3AZqdQnMO4_MF52yFEdfPwGR2c5TOrdrMrhwDCIq7_BT70ASGwBzx4vlwg3vOoFWvEBavIs_8rV3q2ejscKFIOzHp6lAcH-aMg=s320\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ETodd W Schneider\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EManhattan is at about 26% of normal (impacted by holidays too).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is through Friday, December 31st.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHe notes: \"Data updates weekly from the MTA’s \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/web.mta.info\/developers\/turnstile.html\"\u003Epublic turnstile data\u003C\/a\u003E, usually on Saturday mornings\"."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2082383737045621284\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2082383737045621284","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2082383737045621284"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2082383737045621284"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for.html","title":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjyrKJdW2Ti1JPun8vMzgbiJSUgwDfTJ33azLXo2vjHWODsbfdszh0EFMdMLYpFAGxxRdNmqr6klITKlOqmkKThZVyQBeHde1d0KCqWtissM2gEZ6WTwV2e8cvZ4odBNEooLkfwpztUHWDkDDFZnoHo-dBDeL6Mx-TZQR4jDrbTKmB6G7b-bQ=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4157236744598272730"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-02T18:36:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-02T18:36:52.187-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/schedule-for-week-of-january-2-2021.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of January 2, 2022\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003ECorelogic House Price index\u003C\/b\u003E for November (might be Tuesday).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  From CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 futures are up 18 and DOW futures are up 128 (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOil prices were up over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $75.82\t per barrel and Brent at $78.34 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $48, and Brent was at $51 - so \u003Cb\u003EWTI oil prices are up 50% year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $3.26 per gallon.  A year ago prices were at $2.24 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.02 per gallon year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4157236744598272730\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4157236744598272730","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4157236744598272730"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4157236744598272730"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/sunday-night-futures.html","title":"Sunday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5224225562368153408"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-02T15:24:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-03T12:54:03.335-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #5 for 2022: Will the core inflation rate increase or decrease by December 2022?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier I posted some questions on my blog: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2022.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2022\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E5) \u003Cb\u003EInflation:\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2021\/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2021\"\u003ECore PCE\u003C\/a\u003E was up 4.7% YoY through November. This was the highest YoY increase in core PCE since 1989.\u0026nbsp; The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm\"\u003EFOMC is forecasting\u003C\/a\u003E the YoY change in core PCE will be in the 2.5% to 3.0% range in Q4 2022.\u0026nbsp;Will the core inflation rate increase or decrease by December 2022?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlthough there are different measure for inflation, they all show inflation well above the Fed's 2% inflation target.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: \u0026nbsp;I follow several measures of inflation, median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI from the Cleveland Fed.\u0026nbsp; Core PCE prices (monthly from the BEA)\u0026nbsp;and core CPI (from the BLS).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgZ3enI0gS3punAts37jQc54mDjjOiqafTegIamCFhorMIiQiOQvYiZWEGpfnXcymOnrF6LuITxAM45CZ-1ozl6i-RK59yRnB38t0emyYWxVKNiy-2oG--AdQQfMUHsp96Q1XaNZW8EnSBQlbXyabAvwo5vIzgQ4gLGJr3bYckECb2hmajktA=s1060\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Inflation Measures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgZ3enI0gS3punAts37jQc54mDjjOiqafTegIamCFhorMIiQiOQvYiZWEGpfnXcymOnrF6LuITxAM45CZ-1ozl6i-RK59yRnB38t0emyYWxVKNiy-2oG--AdQQfMUHsp96Q1XaNZW8EnSBQlbXyabAvwo5vIzgQ4gLGJr3bYckECb2hmajktA=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation.\u0026nbsp; The recent spike in inflation is obvious - and will likely get worse over the next few months.\u0026nbsp; Goldman Sachs economists recently wrote:\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"The current inflation surge is likely to get worse before it gets better\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 4.6%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 4.9%, and Core PCE increased 4.7% year-over-year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe key question is will inflation trend down towards the Fed's target in 2022?\u0026nbsp; The Fed is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm\"\u003Eprojecting\u003C\/a\u003E core PCE inflation will decrease to 2.5% to 3.0% by Q4 2022.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn inflation Goldman Sachs is projecting a significant decline in inflation:\u003Cblockquote\u003Eby the end of [2022] we expect core PCE inflation to fall to 2.5%. Admittedly, the key driver of our forecast—the partial resolution of supply-demand imbalances in the durable goods sector—is hard to time. But we do not see underlying wage growth or inflation expectations as inconsistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation goal, and therefore expect inflation to begin to come down meaningfully.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe pandemic was the cause of the inflation spike, with supply constraints, a shifting of demand from services to goods, large fiscal transfers, and a smaller labor force pushing up wages.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;If the pandemic eases, I expect these pressures to ease.\u0026nbsp; My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will decrease in 2022 (from the current 4.7%), and I think core PCE inflation will be at or below 3% by the end of 2022.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome thoughts:\u003Cdiv\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-4-for-2022-will-overall.html\"\u003EQuestion #4 for 2022: Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020)?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-5-for-2022-will-core-inflation.html\"\u003EQuestion #5 for 2022: Will the core inflation rate increase or decrease by December 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-6-for-2022-will-fed-raise.html\"\u003EQuestion #6 for 2022: Will the Fed raise rates in 2022? If so, how many times?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E•\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-7-for-2022-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2022: How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2022-housing-credit\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2022-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2022-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5224225562368153408\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5224225562368153408","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5224225562368153408"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5224225562368153408"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-5-for-2022-will-core-inflation.html","title":"Question #5 for 2022: Will the core inflation rate increase or decrease by December 2022?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgZ3enI0gS3punAts37jQc54mDjjOiqafTegIamCFhorMIiQiOQvYiZWEGpfnXcymOnrF6LuITxAM45CZ-1ozl6i-RK59yRnB38t0emyYWxVKNiy-2oG--AdQQfMUHsp96Q1XaNZW8EnSBQlbXyabAvwo5vIzgQ4gLGJr3bYckECb2hmajktA=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6535168566919917197"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-02T11:57:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-03T12:54:28.516-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #6 for 2022: Will the Fed raise rates in 2022? If so, how many times?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier I posted some questions on my blog: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2022.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2022\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E6) \u003Cb\u003EMonetary Policy:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp; In response to the pandemic, the FOMC cut rates to zero, and initiated an asset purchase program in March 2020.\u0026nbsp; The FOMC is currently on pace to stop the asset purchase program in March 2022.\u0026nbsp; A majority of FOMC participants expect three rate hikes in 2022.\u0026nbsp; Will the Fed raise rates in 2022?\u0026nbsp; If so, how many times?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFirst, on asset purchases from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20211215a.htm\"\u003EDecember 2021 FOMC statement\u003C\/a\u003E:\u0026nbsp;\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in January, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $40 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $20 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe current plan is to end asset purchases in March 2022.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs far as rates, in March 2020, in response to the pandemic, the Fed cut rates to essentially zero, and held rates at zero ever since.\u0026nbsp; Now most analysts expect the FOMC to raise rates in 2022, perhaps as early as the March meeting.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom Goldman Sachs:\u0026nbsp;\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"High inflation is likely to keep the Fed on a quarterly tightening path next year. We expect the FOMC to raise rates three times starting in March and to announce the start of balance sheet runoff, which is likely to proceed more quickly than last cycle. Our forecast calls for three additional hikes per year in 2023 and 2024 and a terminal rate of 2.5-2.75%.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs of December, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20211215.htm\"\u003Elooking at the \"dot plot\"\u003C\/a\u003E, the FOMC participants see the following number of rate hikes in 2022:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 220px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EFOMC\u003Cbr \/\u003EMembers\u003Cbr \/\u003E2022\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENo Change\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOne Rate Hike\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ETwo Rate Hikes\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EThree Rate Hikes\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFour Rate Hikes\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClearly the main view of the FOMC is three rate hikes in 2022.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe next two FOMC meetings are January 25th and 26th, and then March 15th and 16th.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Currently I expect asset purchases to end as planned in March, and the 1st rate hike to happen at the March meeting, and perhaps a 2nd hike in June.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Subsequent rate hikes will depend on the course of the pandemic, inflation and employment, but 3 rate hikes in 2022 seem likely.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;It also seems likely that the FOMC will announcement the end of reinvestment sometime in 2022 (start \"balance sheet runoff\").\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome thoughts:\u003Cdiv\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-4-for-2022-will-overall.html\"\u003EQuestion #4 for 2022: Will the overall participation rate increase to pre-pandemic levels (63.4% in February 2020)?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-5-for-2022-will-core-inflation.html\"\u003EQuestion #5 for 2022: Will the core inflation rate increase or decrease by December 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-6-for-2022-will-fed-raise.html\"\u003EQuestion #6 for 2022: Will the Fed raise rates in 2022? If so, how many times?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E•\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-7-for-2022-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2022: How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2022-housing-credit\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2022-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2022-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6535168566919917197\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6535168566919917197","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6535168566919917197"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6535168566919917197"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/question-6-for-2022-will-fed-raise.html","title":"Question #6 for 2022: Will the Fed raise rates in 2022? If so, how many times?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3098691358585565043"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-01T14:11:00.026-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-01T14:11:00.408-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-7-for-2022-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2022-housing-credit\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2022-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio-ade\"\u003EReal House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in October\u003C\/a\u003E And a look at \"Affordability\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-index-up-191\"\u003ECase-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October\u003C\/a\u003E FHFA: \"annual trends slowing over the last four consecutive months\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/final-look-at-local-housing-markets\"\u003EFinal Look at Local Housing Markets in November\u003C\/a\u003E No Signs of Slowing; Inventory down Sharply\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E   • \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2022-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E   This is usually published several times a week, and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe blog will continue as always!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp; Most content is available for free, but \u003Cb\u003Eplease subscribe!\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3098691358585565043\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3098691358585565043","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3098691358585565043"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3098691358585565043"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7340076027133563647"},"published":{"$t":"2022-01-01T08:11:00.054-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-01-01T08:11:00.371-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of January 2, 2021"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Happy New Year!  Wishing you all the best in 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOther key indicators include the December ISM manufacturing and services indexes, December vehicle sales, the November trade deficit, and November Job Openings.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, January 3rd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:00 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003ECorelogic House Price index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, January 4th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEj1wBOk2p_BR_446gzJVG_nzBwt7xkvDMq6M_BAZ8P_P_HBogjIQnUR8X8GWU2bqou1IZ8roiUsumACcObxIacSECf1tuiU5zijUftu2q6MZZADu2fz1n6Cf-fOBrSjNBWUNFYGA8ElLpi_dxufQCrbXlY2lSwYv3CF7VYVlFyfG2TB3bSlAA=s1121\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEj1wBOk2p_BR_446gzJVG_nzBwt7xkvDMq6M_BAZ8P_P_HBogjIQnUR8X8GWU2bqou1IZ8roiUsumACcObxIacSECf1tuiU5zijUftu2q6MZZADu2fz1n6Cf-fOBrSjNBWUNFYGA8ElLpi_dxufQCrbXlY2lSwYv3CF7VYVlFyfG2TB3bSlAA=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\u003C\/b\u003E for October from the BLS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EJobs openings increased in October to 11.033 million from 10.602 million in September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 60.2, down from 61.1 in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgqEJqmH5rlkO136u8f9-OjE4R17zD5sOppCsjOpPNEfdi8FvRiB9rJNsUIk_KsZ9pUuzYH1nuH-agSsJEjWifezJ-BUx538Bw6MYOs-0ewsFqZnlBv-6hI8sR8Ix1L6TQOWrN6NAmvjGjiznROABJyKq0-oilKH1UI6tppXm24V4flH0qptQ=s1058\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales Forecast\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgqEJqmH5rlkO136u8f9-OjE4R17zD5sOppCsjOpPNEfdi8FvRiB9rJNsUIk_KsZ9pUuzYH1nuH-agSsJEjWifezJ-BUx538Bw6MYOs-0ewsFqZnlBv-6hI8sR8Ix1L6TQOWrN6NAmvjGjiznROABJyKq0-oilKH1UI6tppXm24V4flH0qptQ=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAll day: \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December. Sales were at 12.86 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).\u0026nbsp; \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/december-vehicle-sales-forecast.html\"\u003EWards Auto\u003C\/a\u003E is projecting sales of 12.7 million SAAR in December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, January 5th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:15 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EADP Employment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 413,000, down from 534,000 jobs added in November. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, January 6th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; Initial claims were 198 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-YPV0BRWGjRM\/Ya9jlk_38sI\/AAAAAAAA7tg\/34KUZN3CfLwLXyVPzcnj2pqDyDs2C-X1gCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1019\/TradeDeficitOct2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Deficit\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-YPV0BRWGjRM\/Ya9jlk_38sI\/AAAAAAAA7tg\/34KUZN3CfLwLXyVPzcnj2pqDyDs2C-X1gCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TradeDeficitOct2021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ETrade Balance report\u003C\/b\u003E for November from the Census Bureau. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report.  The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is the trade deficit to be $70.0 billion.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. trade deficit was at $67.1 billion in October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, January 7th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UZ3RyqYKwzU\/YaocuR7QgwI\/AAAAAAAA7qM\/xkisBsGCtsMmtFuu1PfPktl-vz2GbbvpwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1109\/EmployREcessionNov2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UZ3RyqYKwzU\/YaocuR7QgwI\/AAAAAAAA7qM\/xkisBsGCtsMmtFuu1PfPktl-vz2GbbvpwCNcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployREcessionNov2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for December.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;There were 120 thousand jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 400 thousand jobs added in December, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.1%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.  However, the current employment recession, 20 months after the onset, is now significantly better than the worst of the \"Great Recession\""},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7340076027133563647\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7340076027133563647","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7340076027133563647"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7340076027133563647"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/01\/schedule-for-week-of-january-2-2021.html","title":"Schedule for Week of January 2, 2021"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEj1wBOk2p_BR_446gzJVG_nzBwt7xkvDMq6M_BAZ8P_P_HBogjIQnUR8X8GWU2bqou1IZ8roiUsumACcObxIacSECf1tuiU5zijUftu2q6MZZADu2fz1n6Cf-fOBrSjNBWUNFYGA8ElLpi_dxufQCrbXlY2lSwYv3CF7VYVlFyfG2TB3bSlAA=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3284910301683992767"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-31T17:15:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-31T17:15:11.229-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"\"Highest Mortgage Rates in a Month, But Just Barely\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-12302021\"\u003EHighest Rates in a Month, But Just Barely\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage rates began the week in decent shape, but moved higher somewhat abruptly yesterday.  Context is important though.  The smallest increment of adjustment for mortgages is typically 0.125%, and we haven't seen a move that big since early November.  In fact, the overall range in 30yr fixed rates hasn't even been 0.125% during that time!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn other words, we're only able to say \"highest rates in a month\" because they finally trickled to just slightly higher levels.  On that note, we might as well prepare for the next technicality.  Specifically, if things get just a bit worse, we'll soon be able to say \"highest rates in 9 months,\" even though they won't be too terribly different from today's.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEi33zFbvWt6Hfu0PLeCiMeYp_ttUnsUt356GJwOWHH9cAYruHcXc9l6Jye285XyqtMj7epRSyQuV61aUhrJAvqCY5ewZd5gKe1jN60KWyqhQi0szJnfu_iPn69ufLHpRCM726WmvzdYem5vsCxxjXS7cv2KV1HbIKlDsJyVnWJ-az8ySzMKQQ=s756\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEi33zFbvWt6Hfu0PLeCiMeYp_ttUnsUt356GJwOWHH9cAYruHcXc9l6Jye285XyqtMj7epRSyQuV61aUhrJAvqCY5ewZd5gKe1jN60KWyqhQi0szJnfu_iPn69ufLHpRCM726WmvzdYem5vsCxxjXS7cv2KV1HbIKlDsJyVnWJ-az8ySzMKQQ=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-12302021\"\u003Egraph from Mortgage News Daily\u003C\/a\u003E (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) since 2010.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 30-year fixed rate for top tier scenarios was 3.27% yesterday, up from 3.26% on Wednesday.\u0026nbsp; This is still historically very low.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIf rates rise to 3.30% that will be highest since March 2021.\u0026nbsp; And 3.46% would be the highest since rates spiked briefly at the beginning of the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EGo to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3284910301683992767\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3284910301683992767","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3284910301683992767"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3284910301683992767"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/highest-mortgage-rates-in-month-but.html","title":"\"Highest Mortgage Rates in a Month, But Just Barely\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEi33zFbvWt6Hfu0PLeCiMeYp_ttUnsUt356GJwOWHH9cAYruHcXc9l6Jye285XyqtMj7epRSyQuV61aUhrJAvqCY5ewZd5gKe1jN60KWyqhQi0szJnfu_iPn69ufLHpRCM726WmvzdYem5vsCxxjXS7cv2KV1HbIKlDsJyVnWJ-az8ySzMKQQ=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3321865978760648513"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-31T12:23:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-31T12:23:38.896-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #7 for 2022: How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-7-for-2022-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EEarlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2022.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2022\u003C\/a\u003E.   Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhGuSQeb4NHA9tuF6ariUC1-hHYIht-L6DzODq7-81_GlDDZOkLd4uOXvj9iGWvMsgWgVzvApRP45gf8EOQStUCIQPE5basajDlc4fRoC26xUscMTjR9j5TBsoA_l4CjkNw7CBJ102E9S6wZVGO7vXYusqxIg0M-s5SFO2pv--7ZCvV7bespA=s1136\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhGuSQeb4NHA9tuF6ariUC1-hHYIht-L6DzODq7-81_GlDDZOkLd4uOXvj9iGWvMsgWgVzvApRP45gf8EOQStUCIQPE5basajDlc4fRoC26xUscMTjR9j5TBsoA_l4CjkNw7CBJ102E9S6wZVGO7vXYusqxIg0M-s5SFO2pv--7ZCvV7bespA=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2022-housing-forecasts-second-look\"\u003EMost analysts are looking\u003C\/a\u003E for new home sales to increase in 2022. For example, the NAHB expects new home sales to increase to 840 thousand in 2022, and Fannie Mae expects 897 thousand, and the MBA is forecasting 922 thousand in 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd for housing starts, Fannie Mae is forecasting starts will be mostly unchanged at 1.6 million, and the NAHB is forecasting a decline to 1.55 million.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy guess is starts will be down low-to-mid single digits year-over-year in 2022.  New home sales could pick up solidly if existing home inventory stays low, supply issues are resolved, and mortgage rates stay low, but my guess is new home sales will be mostly unchanged year-over-year.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3321865978760648513\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3321865978760648513","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3321865978760648513"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3321865978760648513"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/question-7-for-2022-how-about-housing.html","title":"Question #7 for 2022: How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhGuSQeb4NHA9tuF6ariUC1-hHYIht-L6DzODq7-81_GlDDZOkLd4uOXvj9iGWvMsgWgVzvApRP45gf8EOQStUCIQPE5basajDlc4fRoC26xUscMTjR9j5TBsoA_l4CjkNw7CBJ102E9S6wZVGO7vXYusqxIg0M-s5SFO2pv--7ZCvV7bespA=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6089203324622435072"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-31T08:33:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-31T08:33:32.303-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Lawler: More on the CoreLogic Home Investor Activity Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From housing economist Tom Lawler:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBelow is a table showing quarterly home sales based on CoreLogic’s property records database for “non-investors” and for “investors” based on size of investors. For fun I also included the YOY % change in the S\u0026amp;P\/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index., As a reminder, here is how CoreLogic defines an investor purchase:\u003Cblockquote\u003EUsing CoreLogic’s public records data, we define an investor as an entity (individual or corporate) who retained three or more properties simultaneously within the past 10 years or has a corporate or non-individual identifier on the deed. Examples include LLCs, CORPs, and INCs, to name a few.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003ECoreLogic’s “size” categories fir investors are as follows:  small 3-10 properties, mid-sized 11-99 properties, and large 100+ properties.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgerkGVXUp0Z1_HIb6bZ_ixH-ixfFt7t_tcONJ1MUbNMmsSYRSPftAcWozYyrDU9jQeYuVvn9U_WAnOU43fNAoeLrhFZ9A_7Y4mA9bqPHfyJrTLicJxusw4F3yeBtTR3ZEqa0k3Q8al9PrVJlzvUqxn_6P8MKCTxdmG3vVbrHOrqwryulGhng=s592\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"CoreLogic Home Purchases by Type of Purchaser\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgerkGVXUp0Z1_HIb6bZ_ixH-ixfFt7t_tcONJ1MUbNMmsSYRSPftAcWozYyrDU9jQeYuVvn9U_WAnOU43fNAoeLrhFZ9A_7Y4mA9bqPHfyJrTLicJxusw4F3yeBtTR3ZEqa0k3Q8al9PrVJlzvUqxn_6P8MKCTxdmG3vVbrHOrqwryulGhng=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on table for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhat is striking is that investor home purchases by investors in all three size categories exploded upward beginning in the second quarter.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that while total home purchases in the third quarter of this year were up 7.5% from the third quarter of 2019, non-investor home purchases were DOWN 5.2%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI’ll have even more on this topic later.  WRT the above chart, however, here are some questions to consider:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDid investor purchases surge BECAUSE home prices were accelerating? Or was the surge in investor purchases behind the surge in home prices?  Or … was it a combination of both?"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6089203324622435072\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6089203324622435072","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6089203324622435072"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6089203324622435072"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/lawler-more-on-corelogic-home-investor.html","title":"Lawler: More on the CoreLogic Home Investor Activity Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgerkGVXUp0Z1_HIb6bZ_ixH-ixfFt7t_tcONJ1MUbNMmsSYRSPftAcWozYyrDU9jQeYuVvn9U_WAnOU43fNAoeLrhFZ9A_7Y4mA9bqPHfyJrTLicJxusw4F3yeBtTR3ZEqa0k3Q8al9PrVJlzvUqxn_6P8MKCTxdmG3vVbrHOrqwryulGhng=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-273477444607038345"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-30T21:21:00.019-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-30T21:21:00.391-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"COVID December 30, 2021: Record Cases; Focus on Hospitalizations and Deaths"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"There will be no COVID updates until January 3rd.  Have a safe New Year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003ECDC is the source\u003C\/a\u003E for all data.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E62.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E205.8\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E316,277\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E176,457\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E67,324\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E61,699\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,100\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,216\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhX-7lB2rumctYeITMxJxWwkR7AIiMklYZJ_sPmkRzXOJEj_kjHloL3JmB83ge376o4d_-0IaM55tZuh4kRJTEOHuDYwfBAnakdWroY_z-MwS2fxUpzdiSvvSVccZU2sdILMLDmSTADmmKlKhN8H8rk_DSXFlDkByAMtyoDLxX-Fnu78a2WIA=s1416\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Hospitalizations per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhX-7lB2rumctYeITMxJxWwkR7AIiMklYZJ_sPmkRzXOJEj_kjHloL3JmB83ge376o4d_-0IaM55tZuh4kRJTEOHuDYwfBAnakdWroY_z-MwS2fxUpzdiSvvSVccZU2sdILMLDmSTADmmKlKhN8H8rk_DSXFlDkByAMtyoDLxX-Fnu78a2WIA=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of hospitalizations reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHospitalizations have turned up sharply over the last few days.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEg03lbDdOayBuTtns1ty9NNMaTxFrq7XE8wtZjJiKNzrxJEHoEdirI8Ih6Q_m7HJRQGel_o8vAGD1oo1u2Y049N4IwgVV00RhrhIQUpV8BSGHxSF5fR_cQKwLijlVgdI6FI3hvD2H_bz0w-YufCc8rxObTxjlI73EWD_S3fEWsJuCfONl2YlQ=s1182\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEg03lbDdOayBuTtns1ty9NNMaTxFrq7XE8wtZjJiKNzrxJEHoEdirI8Ih6Q_m7HJRQGel_o8vAGD1oo1u2Y049N4IwgVV00RhrhIQUpV8BSGHxSF5fR_cQKwLijlVgdI6FI3hvD2H_bz0w-YufCc8rxObTxjlI73EWD_S3fEWsJuCfONl2YlQ=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of new cases reported."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/273477444607038345\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=273477444607038345","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/273477444607038345"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/273477444607038345"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/covid-december-30-2021-record-cases.html","title":"COVID December 30, 2021: Record Cases; Focus on Hospitalizations and Deaths"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhX-7lB2rumctYeITMxJxWwkR7AIiMklYZJ_sPmkRzXOJEj_kjHloL3JmB83ge376o4d_-0IaM55tZuh4kRJTEOHuDYwfBAnakdWroY_z-MwS2fxUpzdiSvvSVccZU2sdILMLDmSTADmmKlKhN8H8rk_DSXFlDkByAMtyoDLxX-Fnu78a2WIA=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4462743404534056418"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-30T16:18:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-30T16:18:19.295-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Fannie Mae \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/about-us\/investor-relations\/monthly-summary\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 1.46% in November, from 1.33% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.96% in November 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese are mortgage loans that are \"three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhZ7OPy8KfXqHj6KuXSAnyftUP8dI4ZFibLDJq-cBJvy7h3vM2nWPxewkjNQQ1TuPZYkEPy8uLcRxiDHlVcw_iqU1qBvDMLHoW7p-qUWn7YsM4OWBoNeJuW6MZJ1XF8n3e3SaG9er5AjHGBDHaPB8drDqthnJONO1OxY1RKWoirZ3kn2W77SA=s943\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhZ7OPy8KfXqHj6KuXSAnyftUP8dI4ZFibLDJq-cBJvy7h3vM2nWPxewkjNQQ1TuPZYkEPy8uLcRxiDHlVcw_iqU1qBvDMLHoW7p-qUWn7YsM4OWBoNeJuW6MZJ1XF8n3e3SaG9er5AjHGBDHaPB8drDqthnJONO1OxY1RKWoirZ3kn2W77SA=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBy vintage\u003C\/b\u003E, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 3.61% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.02% in October).\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFor loans made in 2005 through 2008\u003C\/b\u003E (2% of portfolio), \u003Cb\u003E6.05% are seriously delinquent\u003C\/b\u003E (down from 6.90%),\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u0026nbsp;For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 1.08% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.17%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. \u0026nbsp; Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFreddie Mac \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/freddie-mac-mortgage-serious.html\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E earlier.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4462743404534056418\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4462743404534056418","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4462743404534056418"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4462743404534056418"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/fannie-mae-mortgage-serious-delinquency.html","title":"Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhZ7OPy8KfXqHj6KuXSAnyftUP8dI4ZFibLDJq-cBJvy7h3vM2nWPxewkjNQQ1TuPZYkEPy8uLcRxiDHlVcw_iqU1qBvDMLHoW7p-qUWn7YsM4OWBoNeJuW6MZJ1XF8n3e3SaG9er5AjHGBDHaPB8drDqthnJONO1OxY1RKWoirZ3kn2W77SA=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-175563387463772024"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-30T15:12:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-30T15:12:44.062-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022? "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2022-housing-credit\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022? \u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EEarlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2022.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2022\u003C\/a\u003E.   Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhGuSQeb4NHA9tuF6ariUC1-hHYIht-L6DzODq7-81_GlDDZOkLd4uOXvj9iGWvMsgWgVzvApRP45gf8EOQStUCIQPE5basajDlc4fRoC26xUscMTjR9j5TBsoA_l4CjkNw7CBJ102E9S6wZVGO7vXYusqxIg0M-s5SFO2pv--7ZCvV7bespA=s1136\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhGuSQeb4NHA9tuF6ariUC1-hHYIht-L6DzODq7-81_GlDDZOkLd4uOXvj9iGWvMsgWgVzvApRP45gf8EOQStUCIQPE5basajDlc4fRoC26xUscMTjR9j5TBsoA_l4CjkNw7CBJ102E9S6wZVGO7vXYusqxIg0M-s5SFO2pv--7ZCvV7bespA=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFor Q3 2021, the Net Equity Extraction was $147 billion, or 3.24% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI).\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;The last two quarters have shown a sharp increase in equity extraction compared to recent years, but the level is nothing like the amount of equity extraction during the housing bubble as a percent of DPI. During the housing bubble we saw several quarters with MEW above 8% of DPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EMortgage equity withdrawal will probably decline in 2022, since fewer homeowners will refinance their mortgages.   However, there is some concern about banks easing lending standards, and the rapid increase in non-QM loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis will be something to watch in 2022, but overall lending is still solid (unlike during the housing bubble).\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/175563387463772024\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=175563387463772024","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/175563387463772024"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/175563387463772024"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/question-8-for-2022-housing-credit-will.html","title":"Question #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022? "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhGuSQeb4NHA9tuF6ariUC1-hHYIht-L6DzODq7-81_GlDDZOkLd4uOXvj9iGWvMsgWgVzvApRP45gf8EOQStUCIQPE5basajDlc4fRoC26xUscMTjR9j5TBsoA_l4CjkNw7CBJ102E9S6wZVGO7vXYusqxIg0M-s5SFO2pv--7ZCvV7bespA=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2587000489234770102"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-30T10:16:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-30T10:16:39.812-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2022-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EEarlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2022.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2022\u003C\/a\u003E.   Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEi2JkKc9Ifucz3UaxyWwMS6f3T8CW6tPkkCZe-NNKWr5b_G6B1AdJYADFZQxn5yloL0wFyrYULEToTTAJjqahSrexnTSl628A8HaF99c02hlmvvxtkc5dKuYIFiXFBgku6e05N3LJqpZ4uUq47mvRzS1uLqxUMgYk82b_xuW5heZZvRAHJwwQ=s1027\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEi2JkKc9Ifucz3UaxyWwMS6f3T8CW6tPkkCZe-NNKWr5b_G6B1AdJYADFZQxn5yloL0wFyrYULEToTTAJjqahSrexnTSl628A8HaF99c02hlmvvxtkc5dKuYIFiXFBgku6e05N3LJqpZ4uUq47mvRzS1uLqxUMgYk82b_xuW5heZZvRAHJwwQ=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIf inventory doesn’t increase in 2022, house prices will continue to increase at a double-digit pace.   There are several possible reasons for an increase in inventory in 2022.  Here are a few:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E1. A sharp increase in mortgage rates.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2. Economic problems overseas that spillover into the US.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3. Unregulated areas of finance causing economic problems.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E4.Affordability (a combination of higher mortgage rates and higher prices).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA sharp increase in mortgage rates is possible, especially if inflation stays elevated and the pandemic subsides (each wave of the pandemic has pushed down interest rates).   And at some point, affordability will start to matter, but in general - with low mortgage rates - houses are still somewhat affordable (see \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio-ade\"\u003Ethe bottom of this post on affordability\u003C\/a\u003E).  \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2587000489234770102\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2587000489234770102","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2587000489234770102"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2587000489234770102"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/question-9-for-2022-what-will-happen.html","title":"Question #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEi2JkKc9Ifucz3UaxyWwMS6f3T8CW6tPkkCZe-NNKWr5b_G6B1AdJYADFZQxn5yloL0wFyrYULEToTTAJjqahSrexnTSl628A8HaF99c02hlmvvxtkc5dKuYIFiXFBgku6e05N3LJqpZ4uUq47mvRzS1uLqxUMgYk82b_xuW5heZZvRAHJwwQ=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6074774006373526080"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-30T08:34:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-30T08:34:06.557-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 198,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the week ending December 25, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000\u003C\/b\u003E, a decrease of  8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to  206,000. The 4-week moving average was 199,250, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. \u003Cb\u003EThis is  the lowest level for this average since October 25, 1969\u003C\/b\u003E when it was 199,250. The previous week's average was revised  up by 250 from 206,250 to 206,500.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjwbaU94_9b0b-5OmKgzJLpI1jESo6BNz4hCcrNYyP6bROxwaXGmawSf4_8_bI8I_7OnGazSdKwBVqq2MJSwG5az7tZST05J5oOWe0r23ZS0BkvZJqET63V4yHmAZTvljDJmMRKdwJYodTVdL1tnnw9_rNXNn7Ud1TyHAWnVI9XW1HVLDZ0sg=s1078\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjwbaU94_9b0b-5OmKgzJLpI1jESo6BNz4hCcrNYyP6bROxwaXGmawSf4_8_bI8I_7OnGazSdKwBVqq2MJSwG5az7tZST05J5oOWe0r23ZS0BkvZJqET63V4yHmAZTvljDJmMRKdwJYodTVdL1tnnw9_rNXNn7Ud1TyHAWnVI9XW1HVLDZ0sg=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 206,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERegular state continued claims decreased to 1,716,000 (SA) from 1,856,000 (SA) the previous week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWeekly claims were below the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6074774006373526080\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6074774006373526080","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6074774006373526080"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6074774006373526080"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_30.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 198,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjwbaU94_9b0b-5OmKgzJLpI1jESo6BNz4hCcrNYyP6bROxwaXGmawSf4_8_bI8I_7OnGazSdKwBVqq2MJSwG5az7tZST05J5oOWe0r23ZS0BkvZJqET63V4yHmAZTvljDJmMRKdwJYodTVdL1tnnw9_rNXNn7Ud1TyHAWnVI9XW1HVLDZ0sg=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2082422359420491563"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-29T20:18:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-29T20:18:00.361-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Thursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; Initial claims were 205 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 9:45 AM: \u003Cb\u003EChicago Purchasing Managers Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E61.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E205.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E277,241\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E162,133\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E64,756\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E61,570\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,085\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,227\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgOi9Mc6C8uCjn6LQVPH4Tl_PBX0Hsk16KTZeNSfksRqdBqtoLWb3r280Wv3-mhAlYRUJSgcA9qZAaAxQTPNeLuyaBQMfgaRDUEuRg27-M7sfA5tU7iO4hw5lA7rgsaWRxeYY9WD4rIHRrkeiT5MNh-Lmsm1459QgQyKRSn7Tyxbo-94r37Gw=s1152\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgOi9Mc6C8uCjn6LQVPH4Tl_PBX0Hsk16KTZeNSfksRqdBqtoLWb3r280Wv3-mhAlYRUJSgcA9qZAaAxQTPNeLuyaBQMfgaRDUEuRg27-M7sfA5tU7iO4hw5lA7rgsaWRxeYY9WD4rIHRrkeiT5MNh-Lmsm1459QgQyKRSn7Tyxbo-94r37Gw=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2082422359420491563\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2082422359420491563","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2082422359420491563"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2082422359420491563"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/thursday-unemployment-claims-chicago-pmi.html","title":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEgOi9Mc6C8uCjn6LQVPH4Tl_PBX0Hsk16KTZeNSfksRqdBqtoLWb3r280Wv3-mhAlYRUJSgcA9qZAaAxQTPNeLuyaBQMfgaRDUEuRg27-M7sfA5tU7iO4hw5lA7rgsaWRxeYY9WD4rIHRrkeiT5MNh-Lmsm1459QgQyKRSn7Tyxbo-94r37Gw=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1267744628836366799"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-29T14:16:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-29T14:16:54.221-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Las Vegas Visitor Authority for November: Visitor Traffic Down 11.3% Compared to 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/assets.simpleviewcms.com\/simpleview\/image\/upload\/v1\/clients\/lasvegas\/ES_Nov_2021_31e65e90-be36-477f-82fc-cc0e81a920a6.pdf\"\u003ENovember 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWith traditional seasonal decreases after seeing annual peaks in October, November visitation exceeded 3.1M visitors (down ‐8.2% MoM and down ‐11.3% vs. Nov 2019.)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOverall hotel occupancy reached 77.6% for the month (‐4.0 pts MoM) as weekends saw continued strong levels at 90.7% (+0.3 pts MoM) while midweek occupancy ebbed MoM to 71.9% from 77.5% in October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENovember room rates approached $156, surpassing Nov 2019 levels by 15.5%, while RevPAR reached $121, up 1.7% vs. Nov 2019.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjTAIT2ORkaqZHgMCxVGnQmJLATDnIgkRiYlG05_U0utmxwn_rvAXJyPSHennUKXmVt7jYjvsQp0JaCVqYJwdkBOogKa1oI77S5aS30bopatY1cHsu9RUMAn0M9aTZQipveMUypi3cHqe1oTKObrQ0xchsFmtxLjQM61GZ0BsEL6UX4ah9hXA=s1022\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\" width=\"500\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Las Vegas Visitor Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjTAIT2ORkaqZHgMCxVGnQmJLATDnIgkRiYlG05_U0utmxwn_rvAXJyPSHennUKXmVt7jYjvsQp0JaCVqYJwdkBOogKa1oI77S5aS30bopatY1cHsu9RUMAn0M9aTZQipveMUypi3cHqe1oTKObrQ0xchsFmtxLjQM61GZ0BsEL6UX4ah9hXA=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThist graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EVisitor traffic was down 11.3% compared to the same month in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThere was no convention traffic from March 2020 until June 2021 (data still N\/A).\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EI'll add a graph of convention traffic once convention data is available.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1267744628836366799\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1267744628836366799","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1267744628836366799"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1267744628836366799"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/las-vegas-visitor-authority-for.html","title":"Las Vegas Visitor Authority for November: Visitor Traffic Down 11.3% Compared to 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjTAIT2ORkaqZHgMCxVGnQmJLATDnIgkRiYlG05_U0utmxwn_rvAXJyPSHennUKXmVt7jYjvsQp0JaCVqYJwdkBOogKa1oI77S5aS30bopatY1cHsu9RUMAn0M9aTZQipveMUypi3cHqe1oTKObrQ0xchsFmtxLjQM61GZ0BsEL6UX4ah9hXA=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2005506275511704370"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-29T11:36:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-29T11:36:00.373-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio-ade\"\u003EReal House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EI’ve put together my own \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-a-look-at-affordability-indexes\"\u003Eaffordability index\u003C\/a\u003E - since 1976 - that is similar to the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.firstam.com\/economics\/real-house-price-index\/\"\u003EFirstAm approach\u003C\/a\u003E (more of a house price index adjusted by mortgage rates and the median household income).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI used \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/data\/tables\/time-series\/demo\/income-poverty\/historical-income-households.html\"\u003Emedian income from the Census Bureau\u003C\/a\u003E (estimated 2021), assumed a 15% down payment, and used a 2% estimate for property taxes, insurance and maintenance. This is probably low for high property tax states like New Jersey and Texas, and too high for lower property tax states. If we were including condos, we’d also include HOA fees too (this is excluded).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor house prices, I used the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/spdji\/en\/index-family\/indicators\/sp-corelogic-case-shiller\/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite\/#overview\"\u003ECase-Shiller National Index\u003C\/a\u003E, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Also, for the down payment - there wasn’t a significant difference between 15% and 20%. For mortgage rates, I used the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.freddiemac.com\/pmms\/pmms30.html\"\u003EFreddie Mac PMMS\u003C\/a\u003E (30-year fixed rates).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhGCHGkXan_f6DmiPJ-gnVW6cNeSlB07JF6caa2nrMpoKMBpeACKup_axjaT5XbmxtzzRNP0QNB8-4W0QL-8WBxlwFBCQh_VpALtjNIVSmD_Q3ei7ei1OY8khTo0GsPDyBdD0wfm-07K1cFcoy8ppdJvvpNsu1tbGTsrqF9W-nI3MF5RFcp1g=s1131\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller MoM House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhGCHGkXan_f6DmiPJ-gnVW6cNeSlB07JF6caa2nrMpoKMBpeACKup_axjaT5XbmxtzzRNP0QNB8-4W0QL-8WBxlwFBCQh_VpALtjNIVSmD_Q3ei7ei1OY8khTo0GsPDyBdD0wfm-07K1cFcoy8ppdJvvpNsu1tbGTsrqF9W-nI3MF5RFcp1g=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESo here is what the index looks like (lower is more affordable like the FirstAm index)\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn general, this would suggest houses are somewhat affordable right now (due to low mortgage rates). But this says nothing about if “now is a good time to buy” (see the bottom of my post \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-a-look-at-affordability-indexes\"\u003EHousing: A Look at \"Affordability\" Indexes\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlso, in October, the average 30-year mortgage rates were around 3.1%, and currently \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/\"\u003Emortgage rates are close to 3.27%\u003C\/a\u003E - so we already know the “Affordability Price Index” will increase over the next couple of months (meaning houses are less affordable).  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003EPlease subscribe!\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2005506275511704370\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2005506275511704370","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2005506275511704370"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2005506275511704370"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio_29.html","title":"Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhGCHGkXan_f6DmiPJ-gnVW6cNeSlB07JF6caa2nrMpoKMBpeACKup_axjaT5XbmxtzzRNP0QNB8-4W0QL-8WBxlwFBCQh_VpALtjNIVSmD_Q3ei7ei1OY8khTo0GsPDyBdD0wfm-07K1cFcoy8ppdJvvpNsu1tbGTsrqF9W-nI3MF5RFcp1g=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2839865498464010472"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-29T10:03:00.005-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-29T10:03:43.793-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 2.2% in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/pending-home-sales-subside-2-2-in-november\"\u003EPending Home Sales Subside 2.2% in November\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EPending home sales slipped in November, receding slightly after a previous month of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed contract transactions decline month-over-month. Year-over-year activity mostly retreated too, as three regions reported drops and only the Midwest saw an increase.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, \u003Cb\u003Efell 2.2.% to 122.4 in November\u003C\/b\u003E. Year-over-year, signings slid 2.7%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonth-over-month, the Northeast PHSI declined 0.1% to 99.4 in November, an 8.5% drop from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 6.3% to 116.8 last month, up 0.2% from November 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPending home sales transactions in the South ticked down 0.7% to an index of 148.2 in November, down 1.3% from November 2020. The index in the West slipped 2.2% in November to 105.5, down 4.6% from a year prior.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was well below expectations of a 0.6% increase for this index.  Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2839865498464010472\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2839865498464010472","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2839865498464010472"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2839865498464010472"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/nar-pending-home-sales-decreased-22-in.html","title":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 2.2% in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8098264299502819018"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-28T20:20:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-28T20:20:00.422-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Pending Home Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EPending Home Sales Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.  The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in the index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E61.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E205.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E---\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E240,408\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E150,575\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E63,106\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E61,471\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,096\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,181\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhLfTFLb5k4jeGCV8BuRA9-sNJ7nhDKsgti8xbYOhwd8xb9jFUz-k5YmiZ2oTaxiAwrHhKoHWtYcmZP47g1IJVe4Xsq6p6t53Y1bAjBBIKhCh4F41-Fcp80tl26GIjTTkvKW3hznVgx070ULWKV9l20LLt1axY0OEiZOI1hTE6ZWeE0iw9I4Q=s1163\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhLfTFLb5k4jeGCV8BuRA9-sNJ7nhDKsgti8xbYOhwd8xb9jFUz-k5YmiZ2oTaxiAwrHhKoHWtYcmZP47g1IJVe4Xsq6p6t53Y1bAjBBIKhCh4F41-Fcp80tl26GIjTTkvKW3hznVgx070ULWKV9l20LLt1axY0OEiZOI1hTE6ZWeE0iw9I4Q=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8098264299502819018\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8098264299502819018","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8098264299502819018"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8098264299502819018"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/wednesday-pending-home-sales.html","title":"Wednesday: Pending Home Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhLfTFLb5k4jeGCV8BuRA9-sNJ7nhDKsgti8xbYOhwd8xb9jFUz-k5YmiZ2oTaxiAwrHhKoHWtYcmZP47g1IJVe4Xsq6p6t53Y1bAjBBIKhCh4F41-Fcp80tl26GIjTTkvKW3hznVgx070ULWKV9l20LLt1axY0OEiZOI1hTE6ZWeE0iw9I4Q=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8405103220916138858"},"published":{"$t":"2021-12-28T15:19:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-12-28T15:19:09.107-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"A few key points:\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now closer to normal (second graph below).\u003Cbr \/\u003E4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 (currently Chief Economist at Indeed) \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2014\/08\/kolko-lets-improve-not-ignore-seasonal.html\"\u003E\"Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/07\/case-shiller-house-price-seasonal.html\"\u003Ea post in 2009\u003C\/a\u003E) - and this led to S\u0026amp;P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too (\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2010\/04\/s-concerned-about-seasonal-adjustment.html\"\u003Efrom April 2010\u003C\/a\u003E). \u0026nbsp;I still use the seasonal factor (I think it is better than using the NSA data).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhRfctXX-sZBv-Hxa-0v-Sx4GcZuhn8rdy68mOE3v8w48aEwxfca2mixMgucLBCyY2umqmxeI3RPg72euwshjmp_yoDq-F2WESofiTbDpKDWv_vjB3BDFS7T5qII4uE9c4QAiBmBpqh1_T6guAERSbmTgA1ncQDMGKqyIDfmN7naH0iIorIiQ=s879\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"House Prices month-to-month change NSA\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhRfctXX-sZBv-Hxa-0v-Sx4GcZuhn8rdy68mOE3v8w48aEwxfca2mixMgucLBCyY2umqmxeI3RPg72euwshjmp_yoDq-F2WESofiTbDpKDWv_vjB3BDFS7T5qII4uE9c4QAiBmBpqh1_T6guAERSbmTgA1ncQDMGKqyIDfmN7naH0iIorIiQ=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through October 2021). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the\u0026nbsp;bubble burst. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe seasonal swings declined following the bubble, however the recent price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjzOrFn_6n3cw-J_wFFOriiA3z0tnDJvnUAuF_GYtHD5dpzYlul_cgos7IJWCfT03euUOHoP0OPFoazL4u5GseQs6Fpl-coVlyBjcfvh160vpH9QVLGveuZEMxdGn9_NnaTqgcuQkAGWu2XXbD68wudsNSx93TGIyzNV3mK7EDJWswZzXUMzQ=s867\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case Shiller Seasonal Factors\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEjzOrFn_6n3cw-J_wFFOriiA3z0tnDJvnUAuF_GYtHD5dpzYlul_cgos7IJWCfT03euUOHoP0OPFoazL4u5GseQs6Fpl-coVlyBjcfvh160vpH9QVLGveuZEMxdGn9_NnaTqgcuQkAGWu2XXbD68wudsNSx93TGIyzNV3mK7EDJWswZzXUMzQ=s320\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987.  The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe swings in the seasonal factors have decreased, and the seasonal factors has been moving back towards more normal levels.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote that the recent price surge hasn't distorted the seasonal factors.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8405103220916138858\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8405103220916138858","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8405103220916138858"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8405103220916138858"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/12\/a-few-comments-on-seasonal-pattern-for_28.html","title":"A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEhRfctXX-sZBv-Hxa-0v-Sx4GcZuhn8rdy68mOE3v8w48aEwxfca2mixMgucLBCyY2umqmxeI3RPg72euwshjmp_yoDq-F2WESofiTbDpKDWv_vjB3BDFS7T5qII4uE9c4QAiBmBpqh1_T6guAERSbmTgA1ncQDMGKqyIDfmN7naH0iIorIiQ=s72-c","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});