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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"32572"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8071919435565721243"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-10T19:15:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-10T19:15:00.142-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhG7H5RMuMY2kP8kTwZ3wH_k7fcDGr2cK8jypz4VxRRMZVTpYB2zHXP-CX0sHgnqMYwp3nYvdLGyhuncvxd5oIBGIctxAswHmvM3G7yaimfpeBd9bmBBZ57U2S0mjIbiWeN8zs749xW_9GzGVHdzEtCf1A8Z_rasp8uRYpaK2IakQNoJJWaodRi\/s395\/RatesApr102024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhG7H5RMuMY2kP8kTwZ3wH_k7fcDGr2cK8jypz4VxRRMZVTpYB2zHXP-CX0sHgnqMYwp3nYvdLGyhuncvxd5oIBGIctxAswHmvM3G7yaimfpeBd9bmBBZ57U2S0mjIbiWeN8zs749xW_9GzGVHdzEtCf1A8Z_rasp8uRYpaK2IakQNoJJWaodRi\/s320\/RatesApr102024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 225 thousand initial claims, up from 221 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for March\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8071919435565721243\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8071919435565721243","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8071919435565721243"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8071919435565721243"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/thursday-unemployment-claims-ppi.html","title":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhG7H5RMuMY2kP8kTwZ3wH_k7fcDGr2cK8jypz4VxRRMZVTpYB2zHXP-CX0sHgnqMYwp3nYvdLGyhuncvxd5oIBGIctxAswHmvM3G7yaimfpeBd9bmBBZ57U2S0mjIbiWeN8zs749xW_9GzGVHdzEtCf1A8Z_rasp8uRYpaK2IakQNoJJWaodRi\/s72-c\/RatesApr102024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3283047052160110010"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-10T14:09:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-10T14:09:13.725-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-337\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThis 2-part overview for mid-April provides a snapshot of the current housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inventory-will-tell-the-tale-dbb\"\u003Etells the tale\u003C\/a\u003E!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \nHere is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/march-2024-data\/\"\u003EMarch 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report\u003C\/a\u003E showing new listings were 15.5% year-over-year in March. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgIZmN2yUGs-zL9LeBV40il9sZNrMssjD1mJjDwOILimzfotvh0iE90UA8-oZkhfpiGIRPZqdu2_eAKv3NEAT_jHWIjxA_sLAk7DoqTTwX7xPMyjmhMpBM73JZDEpBbW2k-NmVV594OlcmsmvFXn1SBMzup3rdn8IoWxlfg9kWQklWioNk8pAbT\/s840\/RealtorNewMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Listings\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgIZmN2yUGs-zL9LeBV40il9sZNrMssjD1mJjDwOILimzfotvh0iE90UA8-oZkhfpiGIRPZqdu2_eAKv3NEAT_jHWIjxA_sLAk7DoqTTwX7xPMyjmhMpBM73JZDEpBbW2k-NmVV594OlcmsmvFXn1SBMzup3rdn8IoWxlfg9kWQklWioNk8pAbT\/s320\/RealtorNewMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EHowever, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this March as newly listed homes were 15.5% above last year’s levels. This marked the fifth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/blockquote\u003ENote the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. \u003Cb\u003ENew listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but still below normal levels.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThere are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1\/2% to 7 1\/2% range. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBut time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge.   That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3283047052160110010\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3283047052160110010","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3283047052160110010"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3283047052160110010"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/part-1-current-state-of-housing-market.html","title":"Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgIZmN2yUGs-zL9LeBV40il9sZNrMssjD1mJjDwOILimzfotvh0iE90UA8-oZkhfpiGIRPZqdu2_eAKv3NEAT_jHWIjxA_sLAk7DoqTTwX7xPMyjmhMpBM73JZDEpBbW2k-NmVV594OlcmsmvFXn1SBMzup3rdn8IoWxlfg9kWQklWioNk8pAbT\/s72-c\/RealtorNewMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9170403800222003766"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-10T14:00:00.020-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-10T14:07:49.694-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"FOMC Minutes:  Uncertainty about inflation; Need greater confidence"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcminutes20240320.htm\"\u003EMinutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 19–20, 2024\u003C\/a\u003E.  Excerpt:\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn their discussion of inflation, participants observed that significant progress had been made over the past year toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective even though the two most recent monthly readings on core and headline inflation had been firmer than expected. \u003Cb\u003ESome participants noted that the recent increases in inflation had been relatively broad based and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations\u003C\/b\u003E. However, a few participants noted that residual seasonality could have affected the inflation readings at the start of the year. Participants generally commented that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks but that they had also \u003Cb\u003Eanticipated that there would be some unevenness in monthly inflation readings as inflation returned to target\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn their outlook for inflation, participants noted that they continued to expect that inflation would return to 2 percent over the medium term. They remained concerned that elevated inflation continued to harm households, especially those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. A few participants remarked that they expected core nonhousing services inflation to decline as the labor market continued to move into better balance and wage growth moderated further. Participants discussed the still-elevated rate of housing services inflation and commented on the uncertainty regarding when and by how much lower readings for rent growth on new leases would pass through to this category of inflation. Several participants noted that the disinflationary pressure for core goods that had resulted from the receding of supply chain bottlenecks was likely to moderate. Other factors related to aggregate supply, such as increases in the labor force or better productivity growth, were viewed by several participants as likely to support continued disinflation. Some participants reported that business contacts had indicated that they were less able to pass on price increases or that consumers were becoming more sensitive to price changes. Some participants observed that longer-term inflation expectations appeared to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nParticipants noted indicators pointing to strong economic momentum and disappointing readings on inflation in recent months and commented that they \u003Cb\u003Edid not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9170403800222003766\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9170403800222003766","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9170403800222003766"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9170403800222003766"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/fomc-minutes-uncertainty-about.html","title":"FOMC Minutes:  Uncertainty about inflation; Need greater confidence"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8751524673657346027"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-10T11:35:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-10T11:35:44.810-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.4% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThe Cleveland Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/en\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/median-cpi.aspx\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in March. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. \"The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgdKPrVZENLozXCiZ6ePBUlh-y__kyuaxx8laT-49osWLMop69GIIfAPZihkaDraShD0b2UWd1tAtl8j45LgioYfG7WKORTnVkcWfgFqhtoiSrPlq9sOwCQV_HELLbnvjwe6A4rlnCdwZtiRlGP7THZh80YObfQ09xrnsTJqlCi-sFQsNGRF1FZ\/s1062\/InflationMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Inflation Measures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgdKPrVZENLozXCiZ6ePBUlh-y__kyuaxx8laT-49osWLMop69GIIfAPZihkaDraShD0b2UWd1tAtl8j45LgioYfG7WKORTnVkcWfgFqhtoiSrPlq9sOwCQV_HELLbnvjwe6A4rlnCdwZtiRlGP7THZh80YObfQ09xrnsTJqlCi-sFQsNGRF1FZ\/s320\/InflationMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.6% (unchanged from 4.6% in February), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.6% (up from 3.5%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.8% (unchanged from 3.8%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECore PCE is for February was up 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% in January.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. Rent and Owner's equivalent rent are still very high, and if we exclude rent, median CPI would be around 1.95% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8751524673657346027\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8751524673657346027","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8751524673657346027"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8751524673657346027"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04.html","title":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.4% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgdKPrVZENLozXCiZ6ePBUlh-y__kyuaxx8laT-49osWLMop69GIIfAPZihkaDraShD0b2UWd1tAtl8j45LgioYfG7WKORTnVkcWfgFqhtoiSrPlq9sOwCQV_HELLbnvjwe6A4rlnCdwZtiRlGP7THZh80YObfQ09xrnsTJqlCi-sFQsNGRF1FZ\/s72-c\/InflationMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1663008440750473665"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-10T08:54:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-10T08:54:00.953-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here are a few measures of inflation:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.8% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhCU5m7yGyJiKZmDBbFbTwACDZymyNVWWXkiPP1TxCC4GUne0G2NENj3KvP3UqLWjFA6cKtz3ec2IRJlSCVHThHXD0I9iKtD7vHpwigY91xuOqzvkzVWif61Q5CZ2Myli2E7nQwMWsZGzZo6aJPWqYkb6xixCqgeY5jFV2kIdmf0fQRRZ0Aehbb\/s898\/ServicesLessShelterMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Services ex-Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhCU5m7yGyJiKZmDBbFbTwACDZymyNVWWXkiPP1TxCC4GUne0G2NENj3KvP3UqLWjFA6cKtz3ec2IRJlSCVHThHXD0I9iKtD7vHpwigY91xuOqzvkzVWif61Q5CZ2Myli2E7nQwMWsZGzZo6aJPWqYkb6xixCqgeY5jFV2kIdmf0fQRRZ0Aehbb\/s320\/ServicesLessShelterMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through March 2024.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EServices were up 5.3% YoY as of March 2024, unchanged from 5.0% YoY in February.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nServices less rent of shelter was up 4.8% YoY in March, up from 3.9% YoY in February.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiS8sifhFRM5gh0AEASwQ2HZPpfR8N2aafl3FwrDb7Aqo6vCbx0f4mV0PchhhWqXbHtpU-EPNPaHeobappxMeI_SwyU-LbVcPzXZScXJBoHZbCTJvZ_u-oHT02yUW60eAJPel4KCfR2SiqnlUy5lrA6OVHTOw80ld5UYpaMSlatzAARxMgaFeZd\/s895\/GoodsYoYMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Goods CPI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiS8sifhFRM5gh0AEASwQ2HZPpfR8N2aafl3FwrDb7Aqo6vCbx0f4mV0PchhhWqXbHtpU-EPNPaHeobappxMeI_SwyU-LbVcPzXZScXJBoHZbCTJvZ_u-oHT02yUW60eAJPel4KCfR2SiqnlUy5lrA6OVHTOw80ld5UYpaMSlatzAARxMgaFeZd\/s320\/GoodsYoYMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDurables were at -2.1% YoY as of March 2024, down from -1.6% YoY in February.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCommodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.7% YoY in March, down from -0.3% YoY in February.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjJrO8Alrp6RDK5oAA89ZRTumHLPIAnszMeiz-ac4seAUOw_zONUPUHA_ZPh6XGDp-p5bv6AJVju5Cx2BMxLKAAT8O8w50tA8u-58kOE1rBhrqObW18-mR_8Od-9wgfJBMckgPrbQOs7LNX832qYc7flW8rBC_HNKbV1DI99vlxjHWqGg__uZbh\/s1119\/ShelterCPIMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjJrO8Alrp6RDK5oAA89ZRTumHLPIAnszMeiz-ac4seAUOw_zONUPUHA_ZPh6XGDp-p5bv6AJVju5Cx2BMxLKAAT8O8w50tA8u-58kOE1rBhrqObW18-mR_8Od-9wgfJBMckgPrbQOs7LNX832qYc7flW8rBC_HNKbV1DI99vlxjHWqGg__uZbh\/s320\/ShelterCPIMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through March) and housing from the PCE report (through February)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nShelter was up 5.6% year-over-year in March\u003C\/b\u003E, down from 5.8% in February.  Housing (PCE) was up 5.8% YoY in February, down from 6.1% in January.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is still \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/asking-rents-mostly-unchanged-year-219\"\u003Ecatching up with private data\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; The BLS noted this morning: \"\u003Cb\u003EThe index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes\ncontributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items.\u003C\/b\u003E\"\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECore CPI ex-shelter was up 2.4% YoY in March, up from 2.2% in February. "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1663008440750473665\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1663008440750473665","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1663008440750473665"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1663008440750473665"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html","title":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhCU5m7yGyJiKZmDBbFbTwACDZymyNVWWXkiPP1TxCC4GUne0G2NENj3KvP3UqLWjFA6cKtz3ec2IRJlSCVHThHXD0I9iKtD7vHpwigY91xuOqzvkzVWif61Q5CZ2Myli2E7nQwMWsZGzZo6aJPWqYkb6xixCqgeY5jFV2kIdmf0fQRRZ0Aehbb\/s72-c\/ServicesLessShelterMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-558278082587557514"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-10T08:30:00.013-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-10T08:31:33.739-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in March; Core CPI increased 0.4%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\"\u003EFrom the BLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March\u003C\/b\u003E on a seasonally\nadjusted basis, the same increase as in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.\nOver the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe index for shelter rose in March\u003C\/b\u003E, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes\ncontributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The energy index rose 1.1\npercent over the month. The food index rose 0.1 percent in March. The food at home index was unchanged,\nwhile the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in March\u003C\/b\u003E, as it did in each of the 2\npreceding months. Indexes which increased in March include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, medical\ncare, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, recreation, and new vehicles\nwere among those that decreased over the month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe all items index rose 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending March\u003C\/b\u003E, a larger increase than the\n3.2-percent increase for the 12 months ending February. \u003Cb\u003EThe all items less food and energy index rose\n3.8 percent over the last 12 month\u003C\/b\u003Es. The energy index increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ending\nMarch, the first 12-month increase in that index since the period ending February 2023. The food index\nincreased 2.2 percent over the last year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe change in both CPI and core CPI were above expectations.  I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/558278082587557514\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=558278082587557514","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/558278082587557514"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/558278082587557514"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/bls-cpi-increased-04-in-march-core-cpi.html","title":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.4% in March; Core CPI increased 0.4%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4678064340505962282"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-10T07:00:00.024-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-10T07:00:00.264-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one \nweek earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage \nApplications Survey for the week ending April 5, 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.1 percent on \na seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.2\npercent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous \nweek and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase \nIndex decreased 5 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent\ncompared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E23 percent lower than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Mortgage rates moved higher last week as several Federal Reserve officials reiterated a patient posture \non rate cuts. Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target, and the broader economy continues to \nshow resiliency. Unexpectedly strong employment data released last week further added to the upward \npressure on rates,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed \nrate increased to 7.01 percent, the highest in over a month. Purchase applications were down almost five \npercent to the lowest level since the end of February, but refinance applications were up 10 percent, \ndriven particularly by VA refinance applications.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances \n($766,550 or less) increased to 7.01 percent from 6.91 percent, with points remaining at 0.59 (including \nthe origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjeyDkGgwrEFeQ_JYnfcMB79IjnEw1pBXH7k91M2bOcQAM7suCX0nbtMbBcFUa3MabpMULG82pOcTi7RZXmaJu4TJmTajtksp_hcSMC_78-zQfincEJxubpyJ9R36D9oqKnMwsmhc8K7YxgJIbw0tSBmV0s_g5O1esgwt0AEg35D9h4aO0gkxvH\/s1094\/MBAApr102024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjeyDkGgwrEFeQ_JYnfcMB79IjnEw1pBXH7k91M2bOcQAM7suCX0nbtMbBcFUa3MabpMULG82pOcTi7RZXmaJu4TJmTajtksp_hcSMC_78-zQfincEJxubpyJ9R36D9oqKnMwsmhc8K7YxgJIbw0tSBmV0s_g5O1esgwt0AEg35D9h4aO0gkxvH\/s320\/MBAApr102024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 23% year-over-year unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPurchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjPlsMfIZAhm1Gz-WA46y14o2v8aJEheKss3Tjp2IAruw8I43ZgNjSLd61LlZuxt9zM5NYhkED7wxZqxeWLL7eh7PEzbOBI7Pex4pq4XivoVm51J_go9gphZKMaFFTF6leA9MqkRLUnC7tRm5dXyUAIF_hzwNxlHOxT8bNx_vdMlw7s7TL8GbNg\/s1092\/MBARefiApr102024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjPlsMfIZAhm1Gz-WA46y14o2v8aJEheKss3Tjp2IAruw8I43ZgNjSLd61LlZuxt9zM5NYhkED7wxZqxeWLL7eh7PEzbOBI7Pex4pq4XivoVm51J_go9gphZKMaFFTF6leA9MqkRLUnC7tRm5dXyUAIF_hzwNxlHOxT8bNx_vdMlw7s7TL8GbNg\/s320\/MBARefiApr102024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flat lined since then.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4678064340505962282\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4678064340505962282","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4678064340505962282"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4678064340505962282"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/mba-mortgage-applications-increased-in.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjeyDkGgwrEFeQ_JYnfcMB79IjnEw1pBXH7k91M2bOcQAM7suCX0nbtMbBcFUa3MabpMULG82pOcTi7RZXmaJu4TJmTajtksp_hcSMC_78-zQfincEJxubpyJ9R36D9oqKnMwsmhc8K7YxgJIbw0tSBmV0s_g5O1esgwt0AEg35D9h4aO0gkxvH\/s72-c\/MBAApr102024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8300681201417157142"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-09T19:43:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-09T19:43:00.135-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: CPI, FOMC Minutes"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgBmTbjMkuoyZQkVLPH2ohNNTk-Jg9Nmfc_ctbNAz9BFP2d0Hx1Jp56tkE3By4LxZOa2XHfaZrMR3I9yAILDgda3a-u5pDwv_Q61EzOtLLuj0nCNa7rsjdSCYVpl2us7UVwgD0Ssuypk67ezyOZNRAjwKtPQcuwtMBga9Y04mascxDIe3-Dbbk7\/s397\/RatesApr092024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgBmTbjMkuoyZQkVLPH2ohNNTk-Jg9Nmfc_ctbNAz9BFP2d0Hx1Jp56tkE3By4LxZOa2XHfaZrMR3I9yAILDgda3a-u5pDwv_Q61EzOtLLuj0nCNa7rsjdSCYVpl2us7UVwgD0Ssuypk67ezyOZNRAjwKtPQcuwtMBga9Y04mascxDIe3-Dbbk7\/s320\/RatesApr092024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for March\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for 0.4% increase in CPI (up 3.5% YoY) and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.7% YoY).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 2:00 PM, \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Minutes\u003C\/b\u003E, Meeting of March 19-20\u003C"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8300681201417157142\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8300681201417157142","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8300681201417157142"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8300681201417157142"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/wednesday-cpi-fomc-minutes.html","title":"Wednesday: CPI, FOMC Minutes"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgBmTbjMkuoyZQkVLPH2ohNNTk-Jg9Nmfc_ctbNAz9BFP2d0Hx1Jp56tkE3By4LxZOa2XHfaZrMR3I9yAILDgda3a-u5pDwv_Q61EzOtLLuj0nCNa7rsjdSCYVpl2us7UVwgD0Ssuypk67ezyOZNRAjwKtPQcuwtMBga9Y04mascxDIe3-Dbbk7\/s72-c\/RatesApr092024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3464748164095588125"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-09T15:50:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-09T15:50:39.393-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"CPI Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Currently CPI is a significant market mover, especially for mortgage rates. Here are two previews on the report tomorrow.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003EAfter two firm reports to start the year, core CPI inflation should cool off in March. We \nexpect core CPI inflation to round down to 0.2% m\/m (0.24% unrounded) owing to a \nslight decline in core goods prices and less price pressure from core services.\nMeanwhile, headline CPI should round up to 0.3% m\/m (0.25% unrounded). If our \nforecast proves correct, it should provide some confidence to the Fed. \u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe expect a 0.27% increase in March core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.70% (vs. 3.7% consensus). We expect a 0.29% increase in March headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.37% (vs. 3.4% consensus).\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3464748164095588125\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3464748164095588125","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3464748164095588125"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3464748164095588125"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/cpi-preview.html","title":"CPI Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2439357844363937790"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-09T11:16:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-09T11:16:40.608-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"An Update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/an-update-on-the-house-price-battle\"\u003EAn Update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EAlmost a year ago I wrote: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/house-price-battle-royale-low-inventory\"\u003EHouse Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability\u003C\/a\u003E.  Here is an update as the battle continues!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI’ve been wrestling with the impact on house prices of the rapid increase in mortgage rates and monthly payments over the last two years. My reaction was the current situation was somewhat similar to the 1978 to 1982 period and we would likely see prices decline in real terms (adjusted for inflation). See from March 2022: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-dont-compare-the-current\"\u003EHousing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn that article I wrote on prices:\u003Cblockquote\u003E[W]e should expect something similar to the what happened in the late ‘70s - a decline in real house prices seems likely … Currently we just have to watch and wait. However, we can be fairly confident that we won’t see cascading nominal price declines like during the housing bust - since there will be few distressed sales.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EIn the 1980 period, nominal prices only declined slightly on a month-to-month basis a few times according to the Case-Shiller National house price index. However, real prices - adjusted for inflation - declined 10.7% from the peak. The inflation adjusted peak was in October 1979, and real prices didn’t exceed that peak until May 1986 (See from October 2022: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/house-prices-7-years-in-purgatory\"\u003EHouse Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2439357844363937790\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2439357844363937790","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2439357844363937790"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2439357844363937790"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/an-update-on-house-price-battle-royale.html","title":"An Update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4060572436858235343"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-09T08:31:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-09T08:31:00.255-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Moody's: Retail Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q1"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/moodys-apartment-vacancy-rate-unchanged\"\u003EMoody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q1; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom Moody’s Analytics economists: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/cre.moodysanalytics.com\/insights\/cre-trends\/q1-2024-preliminary-trend-announcement\/\"\u003EApartment and Retail in Holding Pattern, Office Evolution and Stress Continued, And Industrial Fundamentals Leveled Off\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EQ1 2024 data revealed trends similar to those observed in 2023, with \u003Cb\u003Eretail vacancy rate remaining stable at 10.3%\u003C\/b\u003E. Asking rents rose slightly by 0.2% to $21.69 per sqft, while effective rents also enjoyed 0.2% increase to $18.98 per sqft. During the holiday season, consumer activity was robust but as expected, decelerated in January as retailers reduced their expenditures at the start of the year. However, February marked a resurgence in consumer spending, with retail sales climbing by 0.6%. It is anticipated that overall retail sales in 2024 will mirror those of 2023, albeit with a larger share attributed to non-store and online transactions. The quarter also saw the addition of 198,000 square feet in new retail construction. Despite this growth, the retail sector continues to confront familiar financing obstacles due to persistent high interest rates, suggesting little change in this trend for the remainder of the year. Although bankruptcy announcements have been prevalent, the vacancy rate has remained steady. This stability is partly due to new, smaller store openings by entities that normally wouldn’t fill this space, such as Macy's and Toys R Us.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEipA3QVqGuexaaNsrn-QYUQNAn9XAzsSVNwJkkJigIXUZLiXkEncpRriXdJjgBCgOHU2r-fpvNEhHTYPDm-T2rViEJdDOKPbLjFXSa9UfLzaVQQ6b71jQSClR81nSJ6OEUQZxu9rHIVqoaUJLJ1WIL1nocUBa8pwkfhVp0fRFzqRUuoSRwwrtjY\/s1064\/MoodysRetailQ12024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Vacancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEipA3QVqGuexaaNsrn-QYUQNAn9XAzsSVNwJkkJigIXUZLiXkEncpRriXdJjgBCgOHU2r-fpvNEhHTYPDm-T2rViEJdDOKPbLjFXSa9UfLzaVQQ6b71jQSClR81nSJ6OEUQZxu9rHIVqoaUJLJ1WIL1nocUBa8pwkfhVp0fRFzqRUuoSRwwrtjY\/s320\/MoodysRetailQ12024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the\u0026nbsp;strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual).\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBack in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising.  This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S\u0026amp;L crisis.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the \"roof tops\" of the residential boom (more loose lending).  This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started.  Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERecently the vacancy rate has held steady at a high level as online shopping continues to impact brick and mortar stores.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4060572436858235343\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4060572436858235343","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4060572436858235343"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4060572436858235343"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/moodys-retail-vacancy-rate-unchanged-in.html","title":"Moody's: Retail Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q1"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEipA3QVqGuexaaNsrn-QYUQNAn9XAzsSVNwJkkJigIXUZLiXkEncpRriXdJjgBCgOHU2r-fpvNEhHTYPDm-T2rViEJdDOKPbLjFXSa9UfLzaVQQ6b71jQSClR81nSJ6OEUQZxu9rHIVqoaUJLJ1WIL1nocUBa8pwkfhVp0fRFzqRUuoSRwwrtjY\/s72-c\/MoodysRetailQ12024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4481637649963164434"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-08T19:08:00.012-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-08T19:08:00.140-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: Small Business Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEji25DpVqnn4cec3QqzMZVAl0kbql8INKEHeeG5gatalUdVvpiIfGeBUkVfLpSi9FTC5xb7azmHGzk6tDxjIbTH50uZshc3VHdmdqCnblvWgdPqysH0gclIC8ZtyKeH3L2MOUTyh66HXv9dOzLSeQjC7B9bDnis1QFuE0K8NnPZWbd4AGiezesm\/s394\/RatesApr082024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEji25DpVqnn4cec3QqzMZVAl0kbql8INKEHeeG5gatalUdVvpiIfGeBUkVfLpSi9FTC5xb7azmHGzk6tDxjIbTH50uZshc3VHdmdqCnblvWgdPqysH0gclIC8ZtyKeH3L2MOUTyh66HXv9dOzLSeQjC7B9bDnis1QFuE0K8NnPZWbd4AGiezesm\/s320\/RatesApr082024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003EFrom Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-04082024\"\u003EMortgage Rates Near Highest Levels Since February\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage rates moved up somewhat abruptly today as the bond market lost more ground over the weekend ... there weren't any compelling news headlines or economic reports driving the weakness.  It would be better thought of as a hangover from Friday's jobs report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAs the week progresses, there will certainly be at least one major economic report with a proven track record of causing big reactions in rates: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday morning.  With the average lender already near the highest levels since February, a bad reaction to CPI could easily launch rates back to levels not seen since November.  On the other hand, if CPI manages to come in much lower than expected, rates would almost certainly drop. [\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/\"\u003E30 year fixed 7.11%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nTuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB \u003Cb\u003ESmall Business Optimism Index\u003C\/b\u003E for March."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4481637649963164434\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4481637649963164434","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4481637649963164434"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4481637649963164434"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/tuesday-small-business-survey.html","title":"Tuesday: Small Business Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEji25DpVqnn4cec3QqzMZVAl0kbql8INKEHeeG5gatalUdVvpiIfGeBUkVfLpSi9FTC5xb7azmHGzk6tDxjIbTH50uZshc3VHdmdqCnblvWgdPqysH0gclIC8ZtyKeH3L2MOUTyh66HXv9dOzLSeQjC7B9bDnis1QFuE0K8NnPZWbd4AGiezesm\/s72-c\/RatesApr082024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7604201078477684657"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-08T14:59:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-08T14:59:34.468-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 5.6% Year-over-year Due to Easter Holiday"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom STR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/str.com\/press-release\/us-hotel-results-week-ending-30-march\"\u003EU.S. hotel results for week ending 30 March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAs expected ahead of the Easter holiday, U.S. hotel performance decreased from the previous week\u003C\/b\u003E, according to CoStar’s latest data through 30 March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n24-30 March 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 62.3% (-5.6%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Average daily rate (ADR): US$157.14 (-0.7%\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$97.83 (-6.3%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEinxzliB6uHuFnwrpxF7BX_XEpMovNUjg8OZkqwM4bsGlsUpH8crWGUBl0y2NMWjvbOwgmSOyK8zBptIvvyyXq6T-586F3UGG44-f88cOXZyhmVN3L7-JkEWkvk72eIBUN1XxRM2QZedRnwRoXCKT4Ou6MO5A6AJMmhYr7rdWpKKLDprEETXiJn\/s1032\/HotelApr052024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEinxzliB6uHuFnwrpxF7BX_XEpMovNUjg8OZkqwM4bsGlsUpH8crWGUBl0y2NMWjvbOwgmSOyK8zBptIvvyyXq6T-586F3UGG44-f88cOXZyhmVN3L7-JkEWkvk72eIBUN1XxRM2QZedRnwRoXCKT4Ou6MO5A6AJMmhYr7rdWpKKLDprEETXiJn\/s320\/HotelApr052024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.\u0026nbsp; Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking slightly below last year, and below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate will move mostly sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7604201078477684657\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7604201078477684657","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7604201078477684657"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7604201078477684657"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-56-year.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 5.6% Year-over-year Due to Easter Holiday"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEinxzliB6uHuFnwrpxF7BX_XEpMovNUjg8OZkqwM4bsGlsUpH8crWGUBl0y2NMWjvbOwgmSOyK8zBptIvvyyXq6T-586F3UGG44-f88cOXZyhmVN3L7-JkEWkvk72eIBUN1XxRM2QZedRnwRoXCKT4Ou6MO5A6AJMmhYr7rdWpKKLDprEETXiJn\/s72-c\/HotelApr052024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2762718632259741114"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-08T13:04:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-08T13:04:34.578-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-3cd\"\u003E1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ENOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to March 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nClosed sales in March were mostly for contracts signed in January and February when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.44% and 6.78%, respectively. This is down from the 7%+ mortgage rates in the August through November period (although rates are now back in the 7% range again).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj5aPRa0LmCp0EpIpIDJkckPyYR2U7HzaajJr0KSPz69TlSelfjBYnaInwzrsfvIucet5p3LOVpxGGYOVgzQRc2EHDrkU5dDzMFgrMKn7elpgqsFH-wawNgjMVQKqF0usdJ_5QtQ-6KcKNlsg1je8b1V2uzYCPCRY-1RhDzDqzHWipwZwQ2jpMX\/s664\/ClosedMar2024V1.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj5aPRa0LmCp0EpIpIDJkckPyYR2U7HzaajJr0KSPz69TlSelfjBYnaInwzrsfvIucet5p3LOVpxGGYOVgzQRc2EHDrkU5dDzMFgrMKn7elpgqsFH-wawNgjMVQKqF0usdJ_5QtQ-6KcKNlsg1je8b1V2uzYCPCRY-1RhDzDqzHWipwZwQ2jpMX\/s320\/ClosedMar2024V1.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIn March, sales in these markets were down 8.9% YoY. In February, these same markets were up 2.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n \u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSales in all of these markets are down compared to January 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is a year-over-year decrease NSA for these early reporting markets. However, there were two fewer working days in March 2024 compared to March 2023, so sales Seasonally Adjusted will be higher year-over-year than Not Seasonally Adjusted sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was just a few early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2762718632259741114\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2762718632259741114","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2762718632259741114"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2762718632259741114"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/03\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj5aPRa0LmCp0EpIpIDJkckPyYR2U7HzaajJr0KSPz69TlSelfjBYnaInwzrsfvIucet5p3LOVpxGGYOVgzQRc2EHDrkU5dDzMFgrMKn7elpgqsFH-wawNgjMVQKqF0usdJ_5QtQ-6KcKNlsg1je8b1V2uzYCPCRY-1RhDzDqzHWipwZwQ2jpMX\/s72-c\/ClosedMar2024V1.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3542603142036809346"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-08T11:01:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-08T11:01:00.172-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 9% in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Dodge Data Analytics: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/category\/dodge-momentum-index\/\"\u003EDodge Momentum Index Fell 9% in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, \u003Cb\u003Efell 8.6% in March\u003C\/b\u003E to 164.0 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 179.5. Over the month, commercial planning fell 3.2% and institutional planning dropped 17.2%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“In 2023, commercial planning decreased while institutional planning notably improved, sitting 29% above year-ago levels in February 2024. While strong market fundamentals should support institutional planning this year, this side of the Index is more at risk for a substantive correction after last year’s growth,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. “Much of the decline on the institutional side is credited to lower levels of education planning. Between February 2023 and February 2024, life science and R\u0026amp;D laboratory projects account for roughly 34% of education planning value, with that share reaching 59% in some months. In March, however, that share dropped to 7%. The surge of lab construction in recent years may lead to decreased planning demand as the market absorbs new supply in 2024. Likely, lower lab volumes will result in education planning returning to its long-run, and more sustainable, average.”\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiukdz1BaNkcx1WPo49MFNPtfujVUf_H-Ay14M-eH-wRRjiDQq_XzPMfGSgLRm3PZPhCl_OLimBYQZIx6spn4Zg6uZ1qbtop2QloqGTLs9nEGiurnvK1Zn7cCQDyfiGUrgnW8e1QoalcgJn4HPZueElnwvrs8mo_llVnm88iSBhn3p2P_JhUYPz\/s1063\/DodgeMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Dodge Momentum Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiukdz1BaNkcx1WPo49MFNPtfujVUf_H-Ay14M-eH-wRRjiDQq_XzPMfGSgLRm3PZPhCl_OLimBYQZIx6spn4Zg6uZ1qbtop2QloqGTLs9nEGiurnvK1Zn7cCQDyfiGUrgnW8e1QoalcgJn4HPZueElnwvrs8mo_llVnm88iSBhn3p2P_JhUYPz\/s320\/DodgeMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 164.0 in March, down from 179.5 the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to Dodge, this index leads \"construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year\".\u0026nbsp; This index suggests a slowdown in 2024.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECommercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3542603142036809346\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3542603142036809346","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3542603142036809346"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3542603142036809346"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/leading-index-for-commercial-real.html","title":"Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 9% in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiukdz1BaNkcx1WPo49MFNPtfujVUf_H-Ay14M-eH-wRRjiDQq_XzPMfGSgLRm3PZPhCl_OLimBYQZIx6spn4Zg6uZ1qbtop2QloqGTLs9nEGiurnvK1Zn7cCQDyfiGUrgnW8e1QoalcgJn4HPZueElnwvrs8mo_llVnm88iSBhn3p2P_JhUYPz\/s72-c\/DodgeMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7639398885687096783"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-08T08:12:00.026-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-08T08:12:00.250-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing April 8th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.9% Week-over-week due to Easter Holiday, Up 24.6% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.9% week-over-week.\u0026nbsp;Inventory bottomed in mid-February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023,\u003Cb\u003E \u003C\/b\u003Eand inventory is now up 3.8% from the February bottom.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENote: the decline this week was due to the Easter holiday, and seasonally, inventory usually increases following Easter.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi1zZcxfGbTT34wazJaKvTYRvRN6y5s0Bn62PalNuv6HJMnPjYk3QyVi8q6dOZMnp638kGM9DZbkqwi8VxTFFQsChuW_VYdVYTnoCIHaU7WluhEBfyOe_71JtVT6_uYc8jeYcr00baorWP7ciitMyPa34xMixQ0Ja9XJ4yMhgLEcEI1gHUNoApE\/s1165\/AltosApr082024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi1zZcxfGbTT34wazJaKvTYRvRN6y5s0Bn62PalNuv6HJMnPjYk3QyVi8q6dOZMnp638kGM9DZbkqwi8VxTFFQsChuW_VYdVYTnoCIHaU7WluhEBfyOe_71JtVT6_uYc8jeYcr00baorWP7ciitMyPa34xMixQ0Ja9XJ4yMhgLEcEI1gHUNoApE\/s320\/AltosApr082024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nAs of April 5th, inventory was at 513 thousand (7-day average), compared to 517 thousand the prior week.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiw2SREmhvAu2W9_IOqEL5mMzq7gCV55BGDHlwHIy3jBhu1nyZE7kSn_ssmhsLePYXNB437LD1np6-qz8kbsTEZTY4X6FF39vpJ74XBbp2Z3NPf-owxGbHv1f2PRBBObKcEl4pgk9UVHzSJM7mP0VI0G75vTTS6kmcaSDX0RV5K7lxn_NdLBOZW\/s1087\/AltosYoYApr082024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiw2SREmhvAu2W9_IOqEL5mMzq7gCV55BGDHlwHIy3jBhu1nyZE7kSn_ssmhsLePYXNB437LD1np6-qz8kbsTEZTY4X6FF39vpJ74XBbp2Z3NPf-owxGbHv1f2PRBBObKcEl4pgk9UVHzSJM7mP0VI0G75vTTS6kmcaSDX0RV5K7lxn_NdLBOZW\/s320\/AltosYoYApr082024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe red line is for 2024.\u0026nbsp; The black line is for 2019.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003ENote that inventory is up almost double from the record low for the same week in 2022\u003C\/b\u003E, but still well below normal levels.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory was up 24.6% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 26.0%), and down 38.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 37.9%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBack in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7639398885687096783\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7639398885687096783","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7639398885687096783"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7639398885687096783"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/housing-april-8th-weekly-update.html","title":"Housing April 8th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.9% Week-over-week due to Easter Holiday, Up 24.6% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi1zZcxfGbTT34wazJaKvTYRvRN6y5s0Bn62PalNuv6HJMnPjYk3QyVi8q6dOZMnp638kGM9DZbkqwi8VxTFFQsChuW_VYdVYTnoCIHaU7WluhEBfyOe_71JtVT6_uYc8jeYcr00baorWP7ciitMyPa34xMixQ0Ja9XJ4yMhgLEcEI1gHUNoApE\/s72-c\/AltosApr082024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1443633759725247544"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-07T18:11:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-07T18:11:15.971-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/schedule-for-week-of-april-7-2024.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of April 7, 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• No major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 are up 14 and DOW futures are up 99 (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOil prices were up over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $86.91 per barrel and Brent at $91.17 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $80, and Brent was at $87 - so WTI oil prices are up about 8% year-over-year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $3.58 per gallon.  A year ago, prices were at $3.58 per gallon, so gasoline prices are unchanged year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1443633759725247544\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1443633759725247544","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1443633759725247544"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1443633759725247544"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/sunday-night-futures.html","title":"Sunday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7133110248738512831"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-07T08:21:00.023-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-07T08:21:00.137-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in March, Intermodal Up"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/rail-traffic-data\/\"\u003ERail Time Indicators\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Ci\u003EGraphs and excerpts reprinted with permission\u003C\/i\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003ETotal originated carloads on U.S. railroads fell 3.5% (31,101 carloads) in March 2024 from March \n2023, their third straight monthly decline. Total carloads averaged 216,716 per week in March 2024, the \nfewest for any March in our records that begin in January 1988. In the first quarter of 2024, total carloads \nwere down 4.2%, or 122,088 carloads, from the same period in 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe problem is coal. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nU.S. railroads also originated 1.02 million intermodal containers and trailers in March, up 11.7% \n(106,903 units) over March 2023 and their seventh consecutive year-over-year gain.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNaxpEPn_sBMdK2aSv71soLZecc_v9pMaeTfOqN4y1MvZ7DUHyunKf0FCEVyN0955pSw3qEwb4vUxHQolIU0xmi6jbA4CpbuNi2plodjApXNcWdQ7SWnwqLObalvxoBydC2Ih_PTJX_a7bPR00gZ0I1qLqF3awBt9QZ5ZaLQdFHt58HjXryCWB\/s823\/CarloadsMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNaxpEPn_sBMdK2aSv71soLZecc_v9pMaeTfOqN4y1MvZ7DUHyunKf0FCEVyN0955pSw3qEwb4vUxHQolIU0xmi6jbA4CpbuNi2plodjApXNcWdQ7SWnwqLObalvxoBydC2Ih_PTJX_a7bPR00gZ0I1qLqF3awBt9QZ5ZaLQdFHt58HjXryCWB\/s320\/CarloadsMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/popular-publications\/rail-time-indicators\"\u003ERail Time Indicators report\u003C\/a\u003E shows the \u003Cb\u003Esix-week average \u003C\/b\u003Eof U.S. Carloads in 2022, 2023 and 2024:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn March, total originated U.S. carloads fell 3.5% \n(31,101 carloads) from March 2023. They averaged 216,716 \nper week in March 2024, the fewest for any March in our \nrecords that begin in January 1988. Total carloads were \ndown 4.2%, or 122,088 carloads, for the year to date.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjxZCLubRhCvCbho6uDdXhEHn8IO4EyGsgYf-C5mhBVfdZXveNk4dxGxG2m20yjA_ZGy58U8tj1dsaWgTOCvPlhhO6mk8SVEPF7jnMDYAZELbGc9EPRiSrVAyL3dJ_frs2LvXitYfWda3ShHOn3YWxDgY-pRRI5v79x5rwU0tXEbKIvREe9RRJB\/s819\/IntermodalMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjxZCLubRhCvCbho6uDdXhEHn8IO4EyGsgYf-C5mhBVfdZXveNk4dxGxG2m20yjA_ZGy58U8tj1dsaWgTOCvPlhhO6mk8SVEPF7jnMDYAZELbGc9EPRiSrVAyL3dJ_frs2LvXitYfWda3ShHOn3YWxDgY-pRRI5v79x5rwU0tXEbKIvREe9RRJB\/s320\/IntermodalMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Esix-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2022, 2023 and 2024: (using intermodal or shipping containers):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. railroads originated 1.02 million intermodal\ncontainers and trailers in March, up 11.7% (106,903 units) \nover March 2023. It’s their seventh straight year-over-year \ngain. ... U.S. intermodal volume in Q1 \n2024 was 3.27 million units, virtually the same as the \naverage for the first quarters from 2014 to 2023 (3.28 million).\u003C\/blockquote\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7133110248738512831\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7133110248738512831","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7133110248738512831"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7133110248738512831"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/aar-rail-carloads-down-yoy-in-march.html","title":"AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in March, Intermodal Up"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNaxpEPn_sBMdK2aSv71soLZecc_v9pMaeTfOqN4y1MvZ7DUHyunKf0FCEVyN0955pSw3qEwb4vUxHQolIU0xmi6jbA4CpbuNi2plodjApXNcWdQ7SWnwqLObalvxoBydC2Ih_PTJX_a7bPR00gZ0I1qLqF3awBt9QZ5ZaLQdFHt58HjXryCWB\/s72-c\/CarloadsMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6192281801428403986"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-06T14:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-06T14:11:00.311-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Office Vacancy Rate at Record High"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/moodys-apartment-vacancy-rate-unchanged\"\u003EMoody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q1; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-326\"\u003EFreddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 5.9% Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/ice-mortgage-monitor-the-impact-of\"\u003EICE Mortgage Monitor: The Impact of \"Golden-Handcuffs\" on Mortgage Payments\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/asking-rents-mostly-unchanged-year-219\"\u003EAsking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/immigration-and-household-formation\"\u003EImmigration and Household Formation\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6192281801428403986\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6192281801428403986","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6192281801428403986"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6192281801428403986"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Office Vacancy Rate at Record High"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3482570431065145351"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-06T08:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-06T08:11:00.138-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of April 7, 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key economic report this week is March CPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, April 8th  -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNo major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, April 9th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n6:00 AM ET: NFIB \u003Cb\u003ESmall Business Optimism Index\u003C\/b\u003E for March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, April 10th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for March\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for 0.4% increase in CPI (up 3.5% YoY) and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.7% YoY).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Minutes\u003C\/b\u003E, Meeting of March 19-20\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, April 11th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 225 thousand initial claims, up from 221 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for March\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, April 12th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Preliminary for April)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3482570431065145351\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3482570431065145351","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3482570431065145351"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3482570431065145351"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/schedule-for-week-of-april-7-2024.html","title":"Schedule for Week of April 7, 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6722747740456735362"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-05T19:21:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-05T19:21:15.270-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"April 5th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Decreased"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgMi_z93aQ6WmTXYvvDoL4jpjfbh1aO70exBUQRKMUnEkYQ5qLf1MOzmN38bGxsddF3DrZ_RidEnZvpa70Aqvm-LeP8LHyCIhcW_CzMjjCfYMrG56vrbf_lN1RCWphFM5Qei1QXGX6bWg0Jmf3P1ygoskcjI4I_bKrAETZE8nQvj4-GeuifuDBv\/s396\/RatesApr052024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgMi_z93aQ6WmTXYvvDoL4jpjfbh1aO70exBUQRKMUnEkYQ5qLf1MOzmN38bGxsddF3DrZ_RidEnZvpa70Aqvm-LeP8LHyCIhcW_CzMjjCfYMrG56vrbf_lN1RCWphFM5Qei1QXGX6bWg0Jmf3P1ygoskcjI4I_bKrAETZE8nQvj4-GeuifuDBv\/s320\/RatesApr052024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDue to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHospitalizations have declined significantly from the winter high of 30,027 but are still above the low of 5,386 last year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7,401\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E8,705\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,002\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,198\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003EWeekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi2ddFnALZ4KZQhnzPxtcTATvoMZ7W7VvJxZFdNIiTvxTXyu03Es54IymBnxu9msfQuXLgC_FbOTmQ0CUIf2olnE0FBKlFZ2noiMLP8idRwFlxcCf-_hwx5dA85z5y-GMCtMc0G2OZOYrqqvmlG-GAogFB2IYK7WVI9RDeVKP_uSVB-TbQp7l3p\/s1265\/COVIDApr052024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi2ddFnALZ4KZQhnzPxtcTATvoMZ7W7VvJxZFdNIiTvxTXyu03Es54IymBnxu9msfQuXLgC_FbOTmQ0CUIf2olnE0FBKlFZ2noiMLP8idRwFlxcCf-_hwx5dA85z5y-GMCtMc0G2OZOYrqqvmlG-GAogFB2IYK7WVI9RDeVKP_uSVB-TbQp7l3p\/s320\/COVIDApr052024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWeekly deaths have declined sharply from the recent peak of 2,553 but are still more than double the low of 490 last July.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAnd here is a graph I'm following concerning\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nwss\/rv\/COVID19-nationaltrend.html\"\u003ECOVID in wastewater\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;as of March 30th:\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhQBjG_u5eA-FHJVmaReslv8kOVwcIZa3SieF1i6KRAT4Fe0y1dxy2SBpFmTDqVYqdE1TZIfBynQzjO4ss_x50aI1pmAFaRWGLr483AdqxbY1PEtp-tH0YnTPt_vW4AWfGvsDfBkSToay6bzVht467TKBXtVt_yYMUSFXbC8po-kc7-zAImwNne\/s978\/COVIDWasteApr052024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Wastewater\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhQBjG_u5eA-FHJVmaReslv8kOVwcIZa3SieF1i6KRAT4Fe0y1dxy2SBpFmTDqVYqdE1TZIfBynQzjO4ss_x50aI1pmAFaRWGLr483AdqxbY1PEtp-tH0YnTPt_vW4AWfGvsDfBkSToay6bzVht467TKBXtVt_yYMUSFXbC8po-kc7-zAImwNne\/s320\/COVIDWasteApr052024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003EThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENationally, COVID in wastewater is now off more than 85% from the holiday peak at the end of December, and that suggests weekly hospitalizations and deaths will continue to decline.\u003C\/div\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6722747740456735362\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6722747740456735362","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6722747740456735362"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6722747740456735362"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/april-5th-covid-update-weekly-deaths.html","title":"April 5th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Decreased"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgMi_z93aQ6WmTXYvvDoL4jpjfbh1aO70exBUQRKMUnEkYQ5qLf1MOzmN38bGxsddF3DrZ_RidEnZvpa70Aqvm-LeP8LHyCIhcW_CzMjjCfYMrG56vrbf_lN1RCWphFM5Qei1QXGX6bWg0Jmf3P1ygoskcjI4I_bKrAETZE8nQvj4-GeuifuDBv\/s72-c\/RatesApr052024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1131381174515359765"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-05T15:10:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-05T15:10:52.741-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q1 GDP Tracking: 2% to 2.5%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003ESince our update last week, \u003Cb\u003E1Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.0% q\/q saar\u003C\/b\u003E. Also, 4Q GDP came in at 3.4% q\/q saar in the third and final estimate, close to our 3.5% forecast. [Apr 5th estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe details of the trade balance report were somewhat firmer than our previous expectations, and we boosted our \u003Cb\u003EQ1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.5%\u003C\/b\u003E. [Apr 4th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for \u003Cb\u003Ereal GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on April 4, down from 2.8 percent on April 1. [April 4th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1131381174515359765\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1131381174515359765","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1131381174515359765"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1131381174515359765"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/q1-gdp-tracking-2-to-25.html","title":"Q1 GDP Tracking: 2% to 2.5%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6429304199787590739"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-05T11:59:00.016-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-05T11:59:29.188-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in March; Down 14.7% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Manheim Consulting today: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/site.manheim.com\/en\/services\/consulting\/used-vehicle-value-index.html\"\u003EWholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were \u003Cb\u003Edown in March compared to February\u003C\/b\u003E. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.1, \u003Cb\u003Ea decline of 14.7% from a year ago\u003C\/b\u003E. The decline in the index was driven by the seasonal adjustment, resulting in a 0.4% month-over-month decrease. The non-adjusted price in March increased by 3.1% compared to February, moving the unadjusted average price down 11.4% year over year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhJqZDs_l8VF5Bo0Izb5rdI0UUZy5LZglr2BmKDbPuzjJtRLZUr-9dCdYYpz18_T_NmvP-91F07PLgmlJ08_2_XIru7zKGJxvOaFn5QD3k3fy8ZR9i3pSZad2bIBQ8fMG6Ggizlt1FtLLYpy1a-LqR4GyKcrMdXhj_jsio2ZlzwTqhqb9ntMh4U\/s1305\/ManheimMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhJqZDs_l8VF5Bo0Izb5rdI0UUZy5LZglr2BmKDbPuzjJtRLZUr-9dCdYYpz18_T_NmvP-91F07PLgmlJ08_2_XIru7zKGJxvOaFn5QD3k3fy8ZR9i3pSZad2bIBQ8fMG6Ggizlt1FtLLYpy1a-LqR4GyKcrMdXhj_jsio2ZlzwTqhqb9ntMh4U\/s320\/ManheimMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe Manheim index suggests used car prices declined in March (seasonally adjusted) and were down 14.7% year-over-year (YoY).\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6429304199787590739\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6429304199787590739","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6429304199787590739"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6429304199787590739"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/wholesale-used-car-prices-declined-in.html","title":"Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in March; Down 14.7% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhJqZDs_l8VF5Bo0Izb5rdI0UUZy5LZglr2BmKDbPuzjJtRLZUr-9dCdYYpz18_T_NmvP-91F07PLgmlJ08_2_XIru7zKGJxvOaFn5QD3k3fy8ZR9i3pSZad2bIBQ8fMG6Ggizlt1FtLLYpy1a-LqR4GyKcrMdXhj_jsio2ZlzwTqhqb9ntMh4U\/s72-c\/ManheimMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2168067406805319758"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-05T09:10:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-05T09:10:35.558-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on March Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELeisure and hospitality gained 49 thousand jobs in March and is now above pre-pandemic levels.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EConstruction employment increased 39 thousand and is now 596 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EManufacturing employment was unchanged and is now 176 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EEarlier: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/march-employment-report-303-thousand.html\"\u003EMarch Employment Report: 303 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EPrime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjnnK1qB-UOB_HYzS5oNHQQdVDGNd1Y8EoDzdnPEvvId_BGdxF6nr9kph8Mw3HC8WcbwjONLge4HjGL6t7OHW_IJLBa0GABijDJdZhFR8k7UyG-rsIqaFZ5Dz6Ea-u6gcUTxIXYGw9wjxcmqBIAD4J6RXPjtsvU28Mq5fCsKgC3Fgbb18kkjCk4\/s1061\/EmployPop2554Mar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjnnK1qB-UOB_HYzS5oNHQQdVDGNd1Y8EoDzdnPEvvId_BGdxF6nr9kph8Mw3HC8WcbwjONLge4HjGL6t7OHW_IJLBa0GABijDJdZhFR8k7UyG-rsIqaFZ5Dz6Ea-u6gcUTxIXYGw9wjxcmqBIAD4J6RXPjtsvU28Mq5fCsKgC3Fgbb18kkjCk4\/s320\/EmployPop2554Mar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ESince the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in March to 83.4% from 83.5% in February, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at to 80.7% from 80.7% the previous month.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBoth are above pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EAverage Hourly Wages\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEixNvFPR51gdbEeqShy-dZ0UfKAUYgHlxWdyQOyIXJmBLacfySjvuG25oocrkhUDBd5xX_qVKbaqxsw9nybnl1IQhozz2Q3DlVZHSmz_rigSwFBz6vRl-PTsOrTLvfc2dVgb1_8o2Cd0BPHqXkoGn9hBlcDEjcs2zuoM8IKU5jkmAZRQa5YZAFD\/s867\/WagesMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Wages\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEixNvFPR51gdbEeqShy-dZ0UfKAUYgHlxWdyQOyIXJmBLacfySjvuG25oocrkhUDBd5xX_qVKbaqxsw9nybnl1IQhozz2Q3DlVZHSmz_rigSwFBz6vRl-PTsOrTLvfc2dVgb1_8o2Cd0BPHqXkoGn9hBlcDEjcs2zuoM8IKU5jkmAZRQa5YZAFD\/s320\/WagesMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in \"Average Hourly Earnings\" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the\u0026nbsp;pandemic related spike reversed a year later.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E \nWage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% YoY in March.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cb\u003EPart Time for Economic Reasons\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjV5jkL8l4JuCRaQtnQfC4zU2OqUws3swObZ1YoyG-dx6MvARcgkFpjzOibVSWav_FnAMogd5dVMmSB04-eaAS33NmEwcdx7m9nmOk8N6v3_jSiq92n8QXgYEUib9ZrzdMvXt8HMaLD-a12FTFaPbLd3YNArP_i4awzKUXBSdiD1CZuD4viA64u\/s1025\/PartTimeMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Part Time Workers\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjV5jkL8l4JuCRaQtnQfC4zU2OqUws3swObZ1YoyG-dx6MvARcgkFpjzOibVSWav_FnAMogd5dVMmSB04-eaAS33NmEwcdx7m9nmOk8N6v3_jSiq92n8QXgYEUib9ZrzdMvXt8HMaLD-a12FTFaPbLd3YNArP_i4awzKUXBSdiD1CZuD4viA64u\/s320\/PartTimeMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFrom the BLS \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\n\"\u003Ci\u003EThe number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little\nin March. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part\ntime because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nThe number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 million from 4.36 million in February.  This is at pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThese workers are included in the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.t15.htm\"\u003Ealternate measure\u003C\/a\u003E of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.3% from 7.3% in the previous month.  This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994).  This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EUnemployed over 26 Weeks\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhZtBs5VcNn9B2sMy7-oXjOeEzKlGY9Skjv4QtXJNrugtFT-xAnx2O5MUpA-sFFuOuWEUvRb6lVwuaPhqcK20YgD_dsmP3EcmZuDJ6J5OTfLjQl4ywo4jduOhY38b7uquV6o9s9xWOxXtROQD9Vxwths7S_Bj7l3sIBPtDHqEvZI8GloApOuiFg\/s1021\/Unemploy26Mar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Unemployed Over 26 Weeks\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhZtBs5VcNn9B2sMy7-oXjOeEzKlGY9Skjv4QtXJNrugtFT-xAnx2O5MUpA-sFFuOuWEUvRb6lVwuaPhqcK20YgD_dsmP3EcmZuDJ6J5OTfLjQl4ywo4jduOhY38b7uquV6o9s9xWOxXtROQD9Vxwths7S_Bj7l3sIBPtDHqEvZI8GloApOuiFg\/s320\/Unemploy26Mar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the BLS, there are 1.246 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.203 million the previous month.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is close to pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EJob Streak\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThrough March 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 39 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 320px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"3\"\u003EHeadline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYear Ended\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EStreak, Months\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2019\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E100\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1990\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E48\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2007\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E46\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1979\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E45\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E5\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E2024\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003E39\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6 tie\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1943\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E33\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6 tie\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1986\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E33\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6 tie\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E33\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1967\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E29\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1995\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E25\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"3\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003ECurrrent Streak\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Cb\u003ESummary:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%.\u0026nbsp; Another strong report.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2168067406805319758\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2168067406805319758","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2168067406805319758"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2168067406805319758"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/comments-on-march-employment-report.html","title":"Comments on March Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjnnK1qB-UOB_HYzS5oNHQQdVDGNd1Y8EoDzdnPEvvId_BGdxF6nr9kph8Mw3HC8WcbwjONLge4HjGL6t7OHW_IJLBa0GABijDJdZhFR8k7UyG-rsIqaFZ5Dz6Ea-u6gcUTxIXYGw9wjxcmqBIAD4J6RXPjtsvU28Mq5fCsKgC3Fgbb18kkjCk4\/s72-c\/EmployPop2554Mar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5663770957216369654"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-05T08:30:00.050-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-05T08:41:09.680-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"March Employment Report: 303 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003EBLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETotal nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 27,000, from\n+229,000 to +256,000, and the change for February was revised down by 5,000, from +275,000 to\n+270,000. With these revisions, \u003Cb\u003Eemployment in January and February combined is 22,000 higher\nthan previously reported\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgzP8UlQSNAvYOdymjZ7q0m3FXDJ7jqxxEVjU2AfAne9AothF0buBOLNRKr-AO-yYtu5RbAxIEkYN-_mn0qGIIzZ2FIXa6KvJJu0kUPiabIxOKRhrOT2Am1seAh4hsP0sK1GuDG-xjso6qlAI7-Xpq0-ux4bCMkYTZubWp22pHZTJN0XaABvmg_\/s999\/JobsMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment per month\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgzP8UlQSNAvYOdymjZ7q0m3FXDJ7jqxxEVjU2AfAne9AothF0buBOLNRKr-AO-yYtu5RbAxIEkYN-_mn0qGIIzZ2FIXa6KvJJu0kUPiabIxOKRhrOT2Am1seAh4hsP0sK1GuDG-xjso6qlAI7-Xpq0-ux4bCMkYTZubWp22pHZTJN0XaABvmg_\/s320\/JobsMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ETotal payrolls increased by 303 thousand in March.\u0026nbsp; Private payrolls increased by 232 thousand, and public payrolls increased 71 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPayrolls for January and February were revised up 22 thousand, combined.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh18KSCnlGaNCL4AwLolYq9nIZXiPCUaqLw5KGnENTIiAwJOTA1ScOPVgAtGjxXZTnElFPFRhSD04co0E78qTYMOcouQr4FRkaS0MsEIB-gsLyVYZoOeRY9XvMST3Sp0KynX39wwASHPpO2tffS5GJd3qdE7xY1JJwhEH7UXyjquRFCEsZtDWl5\/s1127\/EmployYoYMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh18KSCnlGaNCL4AwLolYq9nIZXiPCUaqLw5KGnENTIiAwJOTA1ScOPVgAtGjxXZTnElFPFRhSD04co0E78qTYMOcouQr4FRkaS0MsEIB-gsLyVYZoOeRY9XvMST3Sp0KynX39wwASHPpO2tffS5GJd3qdE7xY1JJwhEH7UXyjquRFCEsZtDWl5\/s320\/EmployYoYMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\nThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn March, the year-over-year change was 2.93 million jobs.\u0026nbsp; Employment was up solidly year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgDthWbhKRGEW5CXdG3SU9GraUBpK1plQCSSpvurg8NP9QLkNKFpGc_Q6g9nK4fDL4HrU2F-lVId3m0WUTGrl-IvaxeQvd-S31rvCmdbD_FxK3U7KsjB5P6ewWMGOS3IB_0WuDtxhvkPTI_4mcQ538XrcuWWwK9q-cQQTHx8aacwMNp1FUiWGE2\/s1058\/EmployPopMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgDthWbhKRGEW5CXdG3SU9GraUBpK1plQCSSpvurg8NP9QLkNKFpGc_Q6g9nK4fDL4HrU2F-lVId3m0WUTGrl-IvaxeQvd-S31rvCmdbD_FxK3U7KsjB5P6ewWMGOS3IB_0WuDtxhvkPTI_4mcQ538XrcuWWwK9q-cQQTHx8aacwMNp1FUiWGE2\/s320\/EmployPopMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\nThe Labor Force Participation Rate was increased to 62.7% in March, from 62.5% in February. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.3% from 60.1% (blue line).\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhajxpobKqrVt_TmkY82pwBwESJ64-uwl5ayzvPoVFcf7gU7VRv1XLH2lFOQ_8eF6BiSYpcT3JIoCtVbo7I9tOPjUsfwpTSQsPhMpS9zMuX8FPFeDvCmXxGxrCjEfiACc_fFLwAapClDRpYbzRQcATjtrl7Zk6e0wW16PvBoHCe6lsVBmnKHeWx\/s1010\/UnemployMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"unemployment rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhajxpobKqrVt_TmkY82pwBwESJ64-uwl5ayzvPoVFcf7gU7VRv1XLH2lFOQ_8eF6BiSYpcT3JIoCtVbo7I9tOPjUsfwpTSQsPhMpS9zMuX8FPFeDvCmXxGxrCjEfiACc_fFLwAapClDRpYbzRQcATjtrl7Zk6e0wW16PvBoHCe6lsVBmnKHeWx\/s320\/UnemployMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe unemployment rate decreased to 3.8% in March from 3.9% in February. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was well above consensus expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EI'll have more later ...\u003C\/div\u003E  "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5663770957216369654\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5663770957216369654","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5663770957216369654"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5663770957216369654"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/march-employment-report-303-thousand.html","title":"March Employment Report: 303 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgzP8UlQSNAvYOdymjZ7q0m3FXDJ7jqxxEVjU2AfAne9AothF0buBOLNRKr-AO-yYtu5RbAxIEkYN-_mn0qGIIzZ2FIXa6KvJJu0kUPiabIxOKRhrOT2Am1seAh4hsP0sK1GuDG-xjso6qlAI7-Xpq0-ux4bCMkYTZubWp22pHZTJN0XaABvmg_\/s72-c\/JobsMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});