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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"32209"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8247818187482268208"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-15T11:03:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-15T11:03:31.520-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/update-the-housing-bubble-and-mortgage\"\u003EUpdate: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EA year ago, I wrote The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP.  Here is an update to a couple of graphs.  The bottom line remains the same: There will not be cascading price declines in this cycle due to distressed sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn a 2005 \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2005\/02\/mortgage-debt-and-recovery.html\"\u003Epost\u003C\/a\u003E, I included a graph of household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Several readers asked if I could update the graph.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E \nFirst, from February 2005 (19 years ago!):\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe following chart shows household mortgage debt as a % of GDP. Although mortgage debt has been increasing for years, the last four years have seen a tremendous increase in debt. Last year alone mortgage debt increased close to $800 Billion - almost 7% of GDP. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/photos1.blogger.com\/img\/243\/2888\/640\/morgtagedebt.jpg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Debt GDP 2005\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/photos1.blogger.com\/img\/243\/2888\/320\/morgtagedebt.jpg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EMany homeowners have refinanced their homes, in essence using their homes as an ATM.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIt wouldn't take a RE bust to impact the general economy. Just a slowdown in both volume (to impact employment) and in prices (to slow down borrowing) might push the general economy into recession. An actual bust, especially with all of the extensive sub-prime lending, might cause a serious problem.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAnd a serious problem is what happened!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8247818187482268208\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8247818187482268208","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8247818187482268208"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8247818187482268208"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/the-housing-bubble-and-mortgage-debt-as.html","title":"The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2329802833377889276"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-15T08:21:00.024-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-15T08:21:00.147-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing January 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 6.7% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week.\u0026nbsp; It is not unusually to get a small increase after the holidays (it happened in 4 of the last 10 years), however inventory will likely decrease a little seasonally until the Spring.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh4ZdX21RlqAD-KtA7O5bg-T83Rup0JA_H4rAPZlaRR9njpSFcWZc7_o556tMoAB7TBNI38y95DmwRhC4Q5Q4B-pXcnZN53JFaE-pM7XGRxNWGSaDRpd10jrPoXLZauGLJjgDAxl4AywhP0zgMQRWhmhgTJKLAONdlKjqOrhHEyBniSeo2eNU06\/s1190\/AltosJan152024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh4ZdX21RlqAD-KtA7O5bg-T83Rup0JA_H4rAPZlaRR9njpSFcWZc7_o556tMoAB7TBNI38y95DmwRhC4Q5Q4B-pXcnZN53JFaE-pM7XGRxNWGSaDRpd10jrPoXLZauGLJjgDAxl4AywhP0zgMQRWhmhgTJKLAONdlKjqOrhHEyBniSeo2eNU06\/s320\/AltosJan152024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nAs of January 12th, inventory was at 505 thousand (7-day average), compared to 499 thousand the prior week.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgWPKWYo2ohOnf5Twn3H5Ts6Yp4MyTzILAdnppi5i360pDVTxsU8TcxWlIunI04571dzQ8nIiY1j7cwud1n4l5nBhzR-1uNfgDF8rUpWb37foLBJVuuPmtT7MxCw5RRkEOGS5uG17mms8alK3UpQtL4mqP2Uhs8YPOKIvZ6tssuFBGOhltv0ad4\/s1088\/AltosYoYJan152024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgWPKWYo2ohOnf5Twn3H5Ts6Yp4MyTzILAdnppi5i360pDVTxsU8TcxWlIunI04571dzQ8nIiY1j7cwud1n4l5nBhzR-1uNfgDF8rUpWb37foLBJVuuPmtT7MxCw5RRkEOGS5uG17mms8alK3UpQtL4mqP2Uhs8YPOKIvZ6tssuFBGOhltv0ad4\/s320\/AltosYoYJan152024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe red line is for 2024.\u0026nbsp; The black line is for 2019.\u0026nbsp; Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory was up 6.7% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 5.7%), and down 38.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 39.0%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBack in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2329802833377889276\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2329802833377889276","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2329802833377889276"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2329802833377889276"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/housing-january-15th-weekly-update.html","title":"Housing January 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 6.7% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh4ZdX21RlqAD-KtA7O5bg-T83Rup0JA_H4rAPZlaRR9njpSFcWZc7_o556tMoAB7TBNI38y95DmwRhC4Q5Q4B-pXcnZN53JFaE-pM7XGRxNWGSaDRpd10jrPoXLZauGLJjgDAxl4AywhP0zgMQRWhmhgTJKLAONdlKjqOrhHEyBniSeo2eNU06\/s72-c\/AltosJan152024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3782666105339957383"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-14T08:11:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-14T08:11:00.296-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.7% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom STR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/str.com\/press-release\/us-hotel-results-week-ending-6-january\"\u003EU.S. hotel results for week ending 6 January\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. hotel performance decreased from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons improved, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 January. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n31 December 2023 through 6 January 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 46.8% (-0.7%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Average daily rate (ADR): US$152.17 (+7.2%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$71.28 (+6.4%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVKwzEGA9xqezcBiiw9lOesnNEWqv9Zp-rCdWeoqwtfZ4HQnP2XizPDqsW6IcjSD6CxV5PiMb8EIDBBuJoraqbG70sG3Zu647MI5hbU26Q9cQ7fqKiefqb5ntd9R9Y0hfQRrH3CNTHU4M6BPQVo3SNiidfC_R-rhgAbGVMDaClw7kJw9icX0HM\/s1034\/HotelJan112024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVKwzEGA9xqezcBiiw9lOesnNEWqv9Zp-rCdWeoqwtfZ4HQnP2XizPDqsW6IcjSD6CxV5PiMb8EIDBBuJoraqbG70sG3Zu647MI5hbU26Q9cQ7fqKiefqb5ntd9R9Y0hfQRrH3CNTHU4M6BPQVo3SNiidfC_R-rhgAbGVMDaClw7kJw9icX0HM\/s320\/HotelJan112024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.\u0026nbsp; Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking close to last year, and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next 3 months.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3782666105339957383\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3782666105339957383","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3782666105339957383"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3782666105339957383"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-07-year.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.7% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVKwzEGA9xqezcBiiw9lOesnNEWqv9Zp-rCdWeoqwtfZ4HQnP2XizPDqsW6IcjSD6CxV5PiMb8EIDBBuJoraqbG70sG3Zu647MI5hbU26Q9cQ7fqKiefqb5ntd9R9Y0hfQRrH3CNTHU4M6BPQVo3SNiidfC_R-rhgAbGVMDaClw7kJw9icX0HM\/s72-c\/HotelJan112024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9156032721243433024"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-13T14:11:00.019-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-13T14:11:00.137-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: 2023 Annual Sales Likely Lowest Since 1995"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-f99\"\u003E2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December\u003C\/a\u003E It appears annual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/moodys-apartment-vacancy-rate-increased\"\u003EMoody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate in \"Uncharted Territory\" at Record High\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-ab5\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-084\"\u003EPart 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-9d0\"\u003E1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9156032721243433024\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9156032721243433024","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9156032721243433024"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9156032721243433024"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this_01129019124.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: 2023 Annual Sales Likely Lowest Since 1995"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4667392623499507737"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-13T08:11:00.047-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-13T08:11:00.132-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of January 14, 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key reports this week are December retail sales, housing starts and existing home sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, January 15th  -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAll \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nyse.com\/markets\/hours-calendars#holidays\"\u003EUS markets\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaqtrader.com\/Trader.aspx?id=Calendar\"\u003Ewill be closed\u003C\/a\u003E in observance of \u003Cb\u003EMartin Luther King Jr. Day\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, January 16th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The New York Fed \u003Cb\u003EEmpire State manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for January.  The consensus is for a reading of -7.1, up from -14.5.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, January 17th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgFDhLu2IAuBDy0_ea5vgprIK3xywYE9KagkBDi5YZKXBNTU54PTBaLymBxHU2qM31uUf_Ak1IiNHYxQJmbWotBAXUNlCljadc_G6MiviL-l3tAB5-CR8F3VVwSNpAyXnuROxlqNjPOLNuKM4tXxL2NhfWgu5FZIhtZ29jZXesDcum5-RcGzLFH\/s1043\/RetailNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgFDhLu2IAuBDy0_ea5vgprIK3xywYE9KagkBDi5YZKXBNTU54PTBaLymBxHU2qM31uUf_Ak1IiNHYxQJmbWotBAXUNlCljadc_G6MiviL-l3tAB5-CR8F3VVwSNpAyXnuROxlqNjPOLNuKM4tXxL2NhfWgu5FZIhtZ29jZXesDcum5-RcGzLFH\/s320\/RetailNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ERetail sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December is scheduled to be released. \u0026nbsp;The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgyJuvgMMqRXAQ_g4U9PkHzmG2xJ-kME6sfKaagWO-Rn4XSYD6yO_ClXw61BcJs1v2ik3W71z2lWmX4V2C6xsieyFfBlcHZg5_-4Zu_P3QADRE2KMOH0auL8DkQN1Cmxb5_iNboaGQUCzamchBEAh45fbdK1jlapFsrW317_NgRmC4j-sdSw99l\/s1009\/IPNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgyJuvgMMqRXAQ_g4U9PkHzmG2xJ-kME6sfKaagWO-Rn4XSYD6yO_ClXw61BcJs1v2ik3W71z2lWmX4V2C6xsieyFfBlcHZg5_-4Zu_P3QADRE2KMOH0auL8DkQN1Cmxb5_iNboaGQUCzamchBEAh45fbdK1jlapFsrW317_NgRmC4j-sdSw99l\/s320\/IPNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E9:15 AM: The Fed will release \u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/b\u003E for December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows industrial production since 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: The January \u003Cb\u003ENAHB homebuilder survey\u003C\/b\u003E. The consensus is for a reading of 38, up from 37 in December. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:00 PM: the \u003Cb\u003EFederal Reserve Beige Book\u003C\/b\u003E, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, January 18th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 204 thousand, up from 202 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg1YmvjtQ84xbq7uXk57sawBBrzpjj11bbyGhvswI6cR60V8eKOV0h-YlT3MnDOQ6C0mtCIWJtageJ8clb1i_Mt8M1Cc5OFPUL0dBfwxFEmR-kOrNIncZaBh6PYdgd2K0V0nBWCSFwiXJ5pRKY2DdP8qDi6DgtbgJl6sOnlo7FdDZ2hedymdmjU\/s1021\/StartsNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg1YmvjtQ84xbq7uXk57sawBBrzpjj11bbyGhvswI6cR60V8eKOV0h-YlT3MnDOQ6C0mtCIWJtageJ8clb1i_Mt8M1Cc5OFPUL0dBfwxFEmR-kOrNIncZaBh6PYdgd2K0V0nBWCSFwiXJ5pRKY2DdP8qDi6DgtbgJl6sOnlo7FdDZ2hedymdmjU\/s320\/StartsNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts\u003C\/b\u003E for December. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows single and multi-family housing starts\u0026nbsp;since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is for 1.415 million SAAR, down from 1.560 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for January.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, January 19th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiIwVquijg9txY1Stij8iUOOGgLdKwPcDR84iWYaEz_YSZpqOxjMEktc1fnA0gFJG16NPA0Sa4ABKLwJGZupISu9OiIHnKpdjj9fMV_o9u1S4LmOjCeBOAJm18LhR5gfGaFkr72OKA8PGt9lO41NjCDsIG9N3u1tJaFqEDdu4_4EZbvBVnJp02i\/s1081\/EHSNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiIwVquijg9txY1Stij8iUOOGgLdKwPcDR84iWYaEz_YSZpqOxjMEktc1fnA0gFJG16NPA0Sa4ABKLwJGZupISu9OiIHnKpdjj9fMV_o9u1S4LmOjCeBOAJm18LhR5gfGaFkr72OKA8PGt9lO41NjCDsIG9N3u1tJaFqEDdu4_4EZbvBVnJp02i\/s320\/EHSNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EExisting Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  The consensus is for 3.84 million SAAR, up from 3.82 million.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Preliminary for January)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4667392623499507737\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4667392623499507737","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4667392623499507737"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4667392623499507737"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/schedule-for-week-of-january-14-2024.html","title":"Schedule for Week of January 14, 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgFDhLu2IAuBDy0_ea5vgprIK3xywYE9KagkBDi5YZKXBNTU54PTBaLymBxHU2qM31uUf_Ak1IiNHYxQJmbWotBAXUNlCljadc_G6MiviL-l3tAB5-CR8F3VVwSNpAyXnuROxlqNjPOLNuKM4tXxL2NhfWgu5FZIhtZ29jZXesDcum5-RcGzLFH\/s72-c\/RetailNov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5878915847872506857"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-12T19:54:00.029-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-12T19:54:00.134-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Jan 12th COVID Update: Hospitalizations Increased"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgH5Xj9CRznT5N6JecWz24ZzIIU0fkY3eJ5N2VxOVolAqNBj1a0EX50bTs4z1bQ07VMrvQds0LHwzhy9MB50wqJ3xzegTPUGABnPCnfyauDFEKbB9n2LF19iOaO5eKqH3lGcgO57NIWWPxvH7j4dsY3iwem6gQiYmwNZVZiU0gVT2Nonhy4D1NE\/s394\/RatesJan122024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgH5Xj9CRznT5N6JecWz24ZzIIU0fkY3eJ5N2VxOVolAqNBj1a0EX50bTs4z1bQ07VMrvQds0LHwzhy9MB50wqJ3xzegTPUGABnPCnfyauDFEKbB9n2LF19iOaO5eKqH3lGcgO57NIWWPxvH7j4dsY3iwem6gQiYmwNZVZiU0gVT2Nonhy4D1NE\/s320\/RatesJan122024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDue to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHospitalizations have almost sextupled\u0026nbsp;from a low of 5,150 in June 2023.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHospitalizations are about 20% of the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E29,285\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E26,079\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,500\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,689\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003EWeekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi2qOJ4wTIdE1WrkCWXkDFHyf0BIrWk9Z_H0ChmRLJ6PaVX4DAuNbvjVdP_3b2Qa-PqkmJlXb0TLlp8N7L2b9s44Jxw1T8VMn3HkkNArKgl5CQB_WkDxxljDzksOzgjCffRS4wBasgR0HOIT6CC1w4bYoQctS6d5Vne3ksNVGOywO1uJwxyb3oo\/s1179\/COVIJan122024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi2qOJ4wTIdE1WrkCWXkDFHyf0BIrWk9Z_H0ChmRLJ6PaVX4DAuNbvjVdP_3b2Qa-PqkmJlXb0TLlp8N7L2b9s44Jxw1T8VMn3HkkNArKgl5CQB_WkDxxljDzksOzgjCffRS4wBasgR0HOIT6CC1w4bYoQctS6d5Vne3ksNVGOywO1uJwxyb3oo\/s320\/COVIJan122024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWeekly deaths have more than tripled from a low of 485 in early July.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/b\u003EStill weekly deaths are far below the weekly peak of 26,000 in January 2021.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd here is a new graph I'm following on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nwss\/rv\/COVID19-nationaltrend.html\"\u003ECOVID in wastewater\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;as of Jan 11th:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj4Uekig4RTy9in5LwJGK3glVlfvvki3FecDpI6EwVPEgvBg3F7_1zweLCWUxh0drKIBdjNJaHsV1LZAmVT-9BGDScAqzR08_4EfoQmXwLZ0buG3TMTZJiD3bpfkRtT4aAMLQJp6n5LVE7RFGSyMHeKL-t50FTVvs-LRM6pSKECwAe_hitOBhuL\/s975\/COVIDWasteJan122024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Wastewater\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj4Uekig4RTy9in5LwJGK3glVlfvvki3FecDpI6EwVPEgvBg3F7_1zweLCWUxh0drKIBdjNJaHsV1LZAmVT-9BGDScAqzR08_4EfoQmXwLZ0buG3TMTZJiD3bpfkRtT4aAMLQJp6n5LVE7RFGSyMHeKL-t50FTVvs-LRM6pSKECwAe_hitOBhuL\/s320\/COVIDWasteJan122024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003EThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECOVID in wastewater might have peaked at the highest level since January 2022 (about half that peak).\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5878915847872506857\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5878915847872506857","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5878915847872506857"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5878915847872506857"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/jan-12th-covid-update-hospitalizations.html","title":"Jan 12th COVID Update: Hospitalizations Increased"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgH5Xj9CRznT5N6JecWz24ZzIIU0fkY3eJ5N2VxOVolAqNBj1a0EX50bTs4z1bQ07VMrvQds0LHwzhy9MB50wqJ3xzegTPUGABnPCnfyauDFEKbB9n2LF19iOaO5eKqH3lGcgO57NIWWPxvH7j4dsY3iwem6gQiYmwNZVZiU0gVT2Nonhy4D1NE\/s72-c\/RatesJan122024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-322719306520136948"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-12T13:00:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-12T13:00:00.246-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.3% to 2.2% Range"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003EOverall, since our last weekly publication, our \u003Cb\u003E4Q US GDP tracking estimate is up two-tenths to 1.3% q\/q saar\u003C\/b\u003E, while 3Q GDP finalized at 4.9% q\/q saar in the third estimate. [Jan 12th estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe left our \u003Cb\u003EQ4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.5% (qoq ar)\u003C\/b\u003E and our Q4 domestic final sales growth forecast unchanged at +2.2% (qoq ar). [Jan 10th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for \u003Cb\u003Ereal GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on January 10, unchanged from January 9 after rounding.  [Jan 10th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/322719306520136948\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=322719306520136948","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/322719306520136948"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/322719306520136948"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/q4-gdp-tracking-13-to-22-range.html","title":"Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.3% to 2.2% Range"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7714097794567389542"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-12T09:52:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-12T09:52:12.583-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-f99\"\u003E2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ENOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is the second look at several early reporting local markets in December. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nClosed sales in December were mostly for contracts signed in October and November. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjd5WnacqOlXwOln_evs8mjVCwOv4USQLr2jZznzL5xNaYuw9ouTK0s7crxpQRV2jki-NYFDU4irb0Jzb2HV2rgx729eEI75XKmKfuk0zGkvUecgcJLOKHApAjclrUGsOiQsMxS1BjttHRsxZHtDEppSx7XyRJUWIBzhcOwhs_6Tj720n-0dlci\/s602\/ClosedDec2023V2.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjd5WnacqOlXwOln_evs8mjVCwOv4USQLr2jZznzL5xNaYuw9ouTK0s7crxpQRV2jki-NYFDU4irb0Jzb2HV2rgx729eEI75XKmKfuk0zGkvUecgcJLOKHApAjclrUGsOiQsMxS1BjttHRsxZHtDEppSx7XyRJUWIBzhcOwhs_6Tj720n-0dlci\/s320\/ClosedDec2023V2.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd a table of December sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn December, sales in these markets were down 6.8%. In November, these same markets were down 5.2% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSales in almost all of these markets are down sharply compared to December 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EIt appears annual sales for 2023 will be at the lowest level since 1995.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMany more local markets to come! \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7714097794567389542\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7714097794567389542","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7714097794567389542"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7714097794567389542"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjd5WnacqOlXwOln_evs8mjVCwOv4USQLr2jZznzL5xNaYuw9ouTK0s7crxpQRV2jki-NYFDU4irb0Jzb2HV2rgx729eEI75XKmKfuk0zGkvUecgcJLOKHApAjclrUGsOiQsMxS1BjttHRsxZHtDEppSx7XyRJUWIBzhcOwhs_6Tj720n-0dlci\/s72-c\/ClosedDec2023V2.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3188534242354832946"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-12T08:11:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-12T08:11:00.261-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AAR: December Carloads and Intermodal Up YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/rail-traffic-data\/\"\u003ERail Time Indicators\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Ci\u003EGraphs and excerpts reprinted with permission\u003C\/i\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. railroads originated 11.70 million \u003Cb\u003Etotal carloads in 2023 — up 0.7% (81,504 carloads) over 2022\u003C\/b\u003E, \nup 0.7% (78,633 carloads) over 2021, and the most for a full year since 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor all of 2023, \u003Cb\u003EU.S. intermodal originations\u003C\/b\u003E totaled 12.67 million containers and trailers — \u003Cb\u003Edown 4.9% (657,165 units) from \n2022\u003C\/b\u003E, down 9.6% (1.35 million) from 2021, and the lowest annual volume since 2013. In 2023, containers \nwere 94.9% of U.S. intermodal units, a record high.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2023 is only the second year in our records (1996 was the other) in which total carloads were up \nover the previous year but intermodal was down.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhGrq6dkoXY-T-OqjWHREnN8NSo4J6ClQVAiUwczkkJ3tkNpF7fIIdXCL1y4yHp6Lfi8ySLpxbnn3WOglv1JtmuBdZ26-ih8-aApZglnJSF7r0FxXxoV8GQ4GFzPvC6kSYflUeF5GVV4gl_M_mP8IoMHnLReeVkjfNgLJLzIlSEwVIrpgLAht6O\/s658\/AARCarloadsDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhGrq6dkoXY-T-OqjWHREnN8NSo4J6ClQVAiUwczkkJ3tkNpF7fIIdXCL1y4yHp6Lfi8ySLpxbnn3WOglv1JtmuBdZ26-ih8-aApZglnJSF7r0FxXxoV8GQ4GFzPvC6kSYflUeF5GVV4gl_M_mP8IoMHnLReeVkjfNgLJLzIlSEwVIrpgLAht6O\/s320\/AARCarloadsDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/popular-publications\/rail-time-indicators\"\u003ERail Time Indicators report\u003C\/a\u003E shows the \u003Cb\u003Esix-week average \u003C\/b\u003Eof U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2023:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETotal carloads in December 2023 were up 7.3% \nover December 2022\u003C\/b\u003E, the biggest year-over-year \nmonthly percentage gain since February 2022. Total \ncarloads were up 2.0% in Q4 2023 over Q4 2022, their best \nyear-over-year quarterly percentage gain since Q1 2022. \n\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgEs5xNKBOV27BOqOwa0COwyv3s8SiYsQackq89rZ0i1RWP4Xtr5Vc1lOCGcFVUY3ZEv_Iv3hLvcf-Q5lceu2KJegd7t-xDUG00D9liklRfbcYJkP2YQU6ez394d1_jLrmfagJIZB-_6WcgIlP4IAQydBm8XjebEGCx0jpJ5AQ4vIpKgSaeJpuv\/s823\/AARIntermodalNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjDWSY4rOj67Nj5QLrr9YjWfeAbpfVJE5Ovxhwi3OHMtSXyHmOH5k1UuspuEsmdo_Np0mBaRTl2dYwE1JA4TcP8cH1Uxh85zkh5QCX8yR6jhJ6Y1C0tL1UUr_PmjH5J_pRylNQyPPKK_MlsInPNku_nj0x5tYnTazG5gfKqDbK_iKGAk5VZphHR\/s320\/AAIntermodalDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Esix-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn December 2023, \u003Cb\u003EU.S. intermodal volume was up \n10.2% over December 2022\u003C\/b\u003E, intermodal’s biggest monthly \nyear-over-year percentage gain since June 2021. \nIntermodal was up 5.5% in Q4 2023 over Q4 2022, its \nbiggest quarterly gain since Q2 2021.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3188534242354832946\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3188534242354832946","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3188534242354832946"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3188534242354832946"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/aar-december-carloads-and-intermodal-up.html","title":"AAR: December Carloads and Intermodal Up YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhGrq6dkoXY-T-OqjWHREnN8NSo4J6ClQVAiUwczkkJ3tkNpF7fIIdXCL1y4yHp6Lfi8ySLpxbnn3WOglv1JtmuBdZ26-ih8-aApZglnJSF7r0FxXxoV8GQ4GFzPvC6kSYflUeF5GVV4gl_M_mP8IoMHnLReeVkjfNgLJLzIlSEwVIrpgLAht6O\/s72-c\/AARCarloadsDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4855520574793211414"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-11T19:33:00.005-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T19:33:00.150-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: PPI"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiOFyFE4PbUvlkg8L_9hJeEPGZOTET1Y0k5TJtnZOptDJvvEGwm6vJ-traLUxicjHBfskPPmsnGDaAdIP03EWtsCj7oXLIZaF4KeupR-9xOqHEoG3tE46VrVHFnXbkD62aIxPwG43ZbMCvM4MfJvm2S5nBNtgTMixNE5Bt47pAssu3ypebLIUx1\/s394\/RatesJan112023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiOFyFE4PbUvlkg8L_9hJeEPGZOTET1Y0k5TJtnZOptDJvvEGwm6vJ-traLUxicjHBfskPPmsnGDaAdIP03EWtsCj7oXLIZaF4KeupR-9xOqHEoG3tE46VrVHFnXbkD62aIxPwG43ZbMCvM4MfJvm2S5nBNtgTMixNE5Bt47pAssu3ypebLIUx1\/s320\/RatesJan112023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for December\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4855520574793211414\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4855520574793211414","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4855520574793211414"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4855520574793211414"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/friday-ppi.html","title":"Friday: PPI"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiOFyFE4PbUvlkg8L_9hJeEPGZOTET1Y0k5TJtnZOptDJvvEGwm6vJ-traLUxicjHBfskPPmsnGDaAdIP03EWtsCj7oXLIZaF4KeupR-9xOqHEoG3tE46VrVHFnXbkD62aIxPwG43ZbMCvM4MfJvm2S5nBNtgTMixNE5Bt47pAssu3ypebLIUx1\/s72-c\/RatesJan112023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2534665500985639926"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-11T14:59:00.029-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T14:59:00.237-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.4% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThe Cleveland Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/en\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/median-cpi.aspx\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in November. \"The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiTao4mHcJyRMbnTgvR9QjioNs0bHW44ofQT2Y2zWMSbeqywylLyp3jyXPj_x5PMEpiEw0oDIpb6E3o_qjiJSjbcdyMurKbDKRwMX1sBX1upYFo5thfY-KfJYk4UgRBnNpI3h6Cxou5BL8dvwtAcpA8kk5YGmXhIZeVA4a20_zDnMpjd38Jc9hK\/s1057\/InflationDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Inflation Measures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiTao4mHcJyRMbnTgvR9QjioNs0bHW44ofQT2Y2zWMSbeqywylLyp3jyXPj_x5PMEpiEw0oDIpb6E3o_qjiJSjbcdyMurKbDKRwMX1sBX1upYFo5thfY-KfJYk4UgRBnNpI3h6Cxou5BL8dvwtAcpA8kk5YGmXhIZeVA4a20_zDnMpjd38Jc9hK\/s320\/InflationDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 5.1% (down from 5.2% in November), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.9% (down from 4.0%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.9% (down from 4.0%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECore PCE is for November was up 3.2% YoY, down from 3.4% in October.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details.\u0026nbsp;\"Fuel oil and other fuels\" decreased at a 33% annualized rate in December.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERent and Owner's equivalent rent are still very high, and if we exclude rent, median CPI would be close to 3.3% (well below 5.1%).\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2534665500985639926\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2534665500985639926","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2534665500985639926"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2534665500985639926"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04.html","title":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.4% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiTao4mHcJyRMbnTgvR9QjioNs0bHW44ofQT2Y2zWMSbeqywylLyp3jyXPj_x5PMEpiEw0oDIpb6E3o_qjiJSjbcdyMurKbDKRwMX1sBX1upYFo5thfY-KfJYk4UgRBnNpI3h6Cxou5BL8dvwtAcpA8kk5YGmXhIZeVA4a20_zDnMpjd38Jc9hK\/s72-c\/InflationDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5249938680915813650"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-11T11:53:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T11:53:13.655-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-084\"\u003EPart 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Ci\u003E“If you do not know where you come from, then you don't know where you are, and if you don't know where you are, then you don't know where you're going. And if you don't know where you're going, you're probably going wrong.”\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Terry_Pratchett\"\u003ETerry Pratchett\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThese “Current State” summaries show us where we came from, where we are, and hopefully give us clues as to where we are going!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nYesterday, in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-ab5\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024\u003C\/a\u003E I reviewed home inventory and sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOther measures of house prices suggest prices will be up further YoY in the November Case-Shiller index. The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-8dc\"\u003ENAR reported\u003C\/a\u003E median prices were up 4.0% YoY in November, up from 3.4% YoY in October. ICE \/ Black Knight reported prices were up 5.1% YoY in November, up from 4.5% YoY in October to new all-time highs, and Freddie Mac \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-8a5\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E house prices were up 6.3% YoY in November, up from 5.6% YoY in October - and also to new all-time highs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEidBjSj3FEFG27G8vVE7fOc8HUNisFmeE_Sm8vJZX6W_l8Dsfa72HdbdnPBhGF_AIgVOaXB9k703DtArmYrI1hoM3VRCLSYyTTNfKNoNs5xSUMcupPi8xw0rSo5KaB3GQGvs0SjbR6XWKiLCu0f4iZTTDtu8b9vgJyHPSJUtJZOmzbbL0UESj_b\/s928\/CSNARFreddieNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Freddie Case-Shiller NAR House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEidBjSj3FEFG27G8vVE7fOc8HUNisFmeE_Sm8vJZX6W_l8Dsfa72HdbdnPBhGF_AIgVOaXB9k703DtArmYrI1hoM3VRCLSYyTTNfKNoNs5xSUMcupPi8xw0rSo5KaB3GQGvs0SjbR6XWKiLCu0f4iZTTDtu8b9vgJyHPSJUtJZOmzbbL0UESj_b\/s320\/CSNARFreddieNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will increase further in the report for November.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5249938680915813650\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5249938680915813650","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5249938680915813650"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5249938680915813650"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/part-2-current-state-of-housing-market.html","title":"Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEidBjSj3FEFG27G8vVE7fOc8HUNisFmeE_Sm8vJZX6W_l8Dsfa72HdbdnPBhGF_AIgVOaXB9k703DtArmYrI1hoM3VRCLSYyTTNfKNoNs5xSUMcupPi8xw0rSo5KaB3GQGvs0SjbR6XWKiLCu0f4iZTTDtu8b9vgJyHPSJUtJZOmzbbL0UESj_b\/s72-c\/CSNARFreddieNov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-628259490047539438"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-11T09:00:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T09:00:50.076-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here are a few measures of inflation:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned early last year when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; This declined sharply and is now up 3.4% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgC9Qyw6lUD3cmyMydhzQ04517mbwe-xYAheVy4L0mtK7jz5XamD33ZoqjpT9WB2Ff6JdUHA9hSP4vqkuqzGjjgqbyZtsN-oXJf0COxDpz0Mj-Vpgul_lgW1qAa7Mg2aR3lZglnc19pURVdRjL3NqSjvFGzW9Jtb9w6av0mgpMJh8RpZpM8B3Rk\/s895\/ServicesLessShelterDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Services ex-Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgC9Qyw6lUD3cmyMydhzQ04517mbwe-xYAheVy4L0mtK7jz5XamD33ZoqjpT9WB2Ff6JdUHA9hSP4vqkuqzGjjgqbyZtsN-oXJf0COxDpz0Mj-Vpgul_lgW1qAa7Mg2aR3lZglnc19pURVdRjL3NqSjvFGzW9Jtb9w6av0mgpMJh8RpZpM8B3Rk\/s320\/ServicesLessShelterDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through November 2023.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EServices were up 4.9% YoY as of December 2023, down from 5.2% YoY in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nServices less rent of shelter was up 3.4% YoY in December, down from 3.5% YoY in November.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhKIGrZ8qUfRTJg-w1Xg5zRDPiK__9t5biASIQYeo7e2ogfzVy4wPIe1Ms_5WpTb9HsGqSDRVUYtJG_gm7lWnUNJZ8bWbpeFWZTsBtOzNOxzdq7_3-8tYfpe6OGmPALPokFeYUW6StEAsio5maaByEkcSy_zbFX4E5oqSRsCc8wnLzlG59i4b2q\/s895\/GoodsYoYDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Goods CPI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhKIGrZ8qUfRTJg-w1Xg5zRDPiK__9t5biASIQYeo7e2ogfzVy4wPIe1Ms_5WpTb9HsGqSDRVUYtJG_gm7lWnUNJZ8bWbpeFWZTsBtOzNOxzdq7_3-8tYfpe6OGmPALPokFeYUW6StEAsio5maaByEkcSy_zbFX4E5oqSRsCc8wnLzlG59i4b2q\/s320\/GoodsYoYDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDurables were at -1.2% YoY as of December 2023, up from -1.6% YoY in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCommodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.1% YoY in December, up from 0.0% YoY in November.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EGoods inflation was transitory.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg0oaDNIIXlVxQ7h5-QF55kC_u2tIn7jicBTyV7OCEGnMolx7tGFDPYYtXyejLlpBKfWJ1aW5Qiyqcp-tuA5vxmznxy1TKGZg22XEpEVfaQXFhEbJmWuco-yh75w2GWWBgdmWU9unHIxouAmjJG7ry5nTxNDYvfoRf1pFdD6wgcY1ELDLAK8wBR\/s1118\/ShelterDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg0oaDNIIXlVxQ7h5-QF55kC_u2tIn7jicBTyV7OCEGnMolx7tGFDPYYtXyejLlpBKfWJ1aW5Qiyqcp-tuA5vxmznxy1TKGZg22XEpEVfaQXFhEbJmWuco-yh75w2GWWBgdmWU9unHIxouAmjJG7ry5nTxNDYvfoRf1pFdD6wgcY1ELDLAK8wBR\/s320\/ShelterDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through December) and housing from the PCE report (through November 2023)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nShelter was up 6.2% year-over-year in December\u003C\/b\u003E, down from 6.5% in November.  Housing (PCE) was up 6.7% YoY in November, down from 6.9% in October.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is still catching up with private data.\u0026nbsp; Moody's just \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/moodys-apartment-vacancy-rate-increased\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that effective rents were down YoY: \"At the national level, asking rent was down to $1,825 while effective rent closed at $1,732, 0.8% and 1.7% lower than their respective year-ago levels.\"\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe BLS noted this morning: \"\u003Cb\u003EThe index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items increase. \u003C\/b\u003E\"\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECore CPI ex-shelter was up 2.2% YoY in December, up from 2.1% in November."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/628259490047539438\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=628259490047539438","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/628259490047539438"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/628259490047539438"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html","title":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgC9Qyw6lUD3cmyMydhzQ04517mbwe-xYAheVy4L0mtK7jz5XamD33ZoqjpT9WB2Ff6JdUHA9hSP4vqkuqzGjjgqbyZtsN-oXJf0COxDpz0Mj-Vpgul_lgW1qAa7Mg2aR3lZglnc19pURVdRjL3NqSjvFGzW9Jtb9w6av0mgpMJh8RpZpM8B3Rk\/s72-c\/ServicesLessShelterDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1398889999183861696"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-11T08:37:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T08:37:37.018-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 202,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nIn the week ending January 6, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000\u003C\/b\u003E, a decrease of 1,000 \nfrom the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The \n4-week moving average was 207,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's \naverage was revised up by 250 from 207,750 to 208,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhNWWzNryi5_MIfymqB29RgyJM5CeRyi24zKsbLpfvzNxS5XORH7zYm5Y8eNlhXplRMxvdnIexHV2R9NyALBsge4X6Vq-QAL7a1QMmgRHE5NWWyzMct3nKKZUEy2mN3UCIgq7yEoVAoz7AYiirQhJ_eMd7VtgS-JgPokevrykQrtDpS4HGVxFuP\/s1076\/WeeklyClaimsJan112024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhNWWzNryi5_MIfymqB29RgyJM5CeRyi24zKsbLpfvzNxS5XORH7zYm5Y8eNlhXplRMxvdnIexHV2R9NyALBsge4X6Vq-QAL7a1QMmgRHE5NWWyzMct3nKKZUEy2mN3UCIgq7yEoVAoz7AYiirQhJ_eMd7VtgS-JgPokevrykQrtDpS4HGVxFuP\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsJan112024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 207,750.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWeekly claims were below the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1398889999183861696\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1398889999183861696","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1398889999183861696"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1398889999183861696"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-at.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 202,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhNWWzNryi5_MIfymqB29RgyJM5CeRyi24zKsbLpfvzNxS5XORH7zYm5Y8eNlhXplRMxvdnIexHV2R9NyALBsge4X6Vq-QAL7a1QMmgRHE5NWWyzMct3nKKZUEy2mN3UCIgq7yEoVAoz7AYiirQhJ_eMd7VtgS-JgPokevrykQrtDpS4HGVxFuP\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsJan112024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1216726915635467666"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-11T08:30:00.026-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T08:33:31.200-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.3% in December; Core CPI increased 0.3%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\"\u003EFrom the BLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in December\u003C\/b\u003E on a\nseasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics\nreported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before seasonal\nadjustment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items\nincrease\u003C\/b\u003E. The energy index rose 0.4 percent over the month as increases in the electricity index and \nthe gasoline index more than offset a decrease in the natural gas index. The food index increased 0.2\npercent in December, as it did in November. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the\nmonth and the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in December\u003C\/b\u003E, the same monthly increase as\nin November. Indexes which increased in December include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, and medical\ncare. The index for household furnishings and operations and the index for personal care were among\nthose that decreased over the month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe all items index rose 3.4 percent for the 12 months ending December\u003C\/b\u003E, a larger increase than the\n3.1-percent increase for the 12 months ending November. \u003Cb\u003EThe all items less food and energy index rose\n3.9 percent over the last 12 months\u003C\/b\u003E, after rising 4.0 percent over the 12 months ending November. The\nenergy index decreased 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending December, while the food index increased\n2.7 percent over the last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe change in CPI was slightly above expectations and core CPI was at expectations.  I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1216726915635467666\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1216726915635467666","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1216726915635467666"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1216726915635467666"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/bls-cpi-increased-03-in-december-core.html","title":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.3% in December; Core CPI increased 0.3%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7368201407051474037"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-10T19:30:00.007-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-10T19:30:00.142-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiI4N8nHUGT7f7Tp2L8oqT_GHfrSzgoeKBvhi6wRE-m-CY9v0MAjLbjpx0eNCuL0YKx-oe4z0U6k8Tlo8Jt6BzvRjFE2AzIeVBtwlbnFiC8LXlz1poq9tXJScm7kTZqy2YCp9jVkNNj2fCLq-JPRMV9cAuieCUhPptGi1GwyA1cQAuWqXnXadQ2\/s385\/RatesJan102023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiI4N8nHUGT7f7Tp2L8oqT_GHfrSzgoeKBvhi6wRE-m-CY9v0MAjLbjpx0eNCuL0YKx-oe4z0U6k8Tlo8Jt6BzvRjFE2AzIeVBtwlbnFiC8LXlz1poq9tXJScm7kTZqy2YCp9jVkNNj2fCLq-JPRMV9cAuieCUhPptGi1GwyA1cQAuWqXnXadQ2\/s320\/RatesJan102023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 215 thousand, up from 202 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for December\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.2% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.9% YoY. "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7368201407051474037\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7368201407051474037","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7368201407051474037"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7368201407051474037"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/thursday-cpi-unemployment-claims.html","title":"Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiI4N8nHUGT7f7Tp2L8oqT_GHfrSzgoeKBvhi6wRE-m-CY9v0MAjLbjpx0eNCuL0YKx-oe4z0U6k8Tlo8Jt6BzvRjFE2AzIeVBtwlbnFiC8LXlz1poq9tXJScm7kTZqy2YCp9jVkNNj2fCLq-JPRMV9cAuieCUhPptGi1GwyA1cQAuWqXnXadQ2\/s72-c\/RatesJan102023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3475615341172333048"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-10T15:48:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T11:30:42.290-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of those questions concerned real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment are on this blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI've added some thoughts and made some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n1) \u003Cb\u003EEconomic growth:\u003C\/b\u003E Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% in 2023.\u0026nbsp; The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2% to 1.7% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024.  How much will the economy grow in 2024?\u0026nbsp; Will there be a recession in 2024?\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EA year ago, I argued that \"the economy will avoid recession\" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIt is satisfying to make an out of consensus forecast, and get it mostly correct.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003EBut we are not out of the woods yet\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Recessions can be the result of exogenous events, like the pandemic or the oil shocks due to geopolitical issues in the 1970s, the bursting of speculative bubbles like in 2001 (stock) or 2007 (housing), or - most frequently - the Fed tightening monetary policy to slow inflation.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EExogenous events are always a threat, and there are several geopolitical issues that could lead to recession - in Ukraine, the Middle East, and even with China.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;However, none of those risks appear likely to cause a U.S. recession this year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBut there is a risk that the Fed will be overly tight in 2024.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003EThe \"Art of the Soft Landing\" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;That seems very possible.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMy view is a soft landing is achieved if growth stays positive, inflation returns to target, and the yield curve flattens or reverts to normal (long yields higher than short yields.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjie78IzIQxcPmX0o762iyzNTZ21UVMIZHrCXSEWaCfCofXVWf9F6wKcXCC-9ZOgYpXSTnHHYYGak0qwkh7v4fX8F-ZBIRvVFYVjqgf_gy8aSpWOdZdJtbl0GN83PbEBdlD4qFJ0i8VvtIoKtPFuDnNbmhm6_sLHNFvL55rGWwltwUiV5iGB3l2\/s1308\/FRED10Minus22024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjie78IzIQxcPmX0o762iyzNTZ21UVMIZHrCXSEWaCfCofXVWf9F6wKcXCC-9ZOgYpXSTnHHYYGak0qwkh7v4fX8F-ZBIRvVFYVjqgf_gy8aSpWOdZdJtbl0GN83PbEBdlD4qFJ0i8VvtIoKtPFuDnNbmhm6_sLHNFvL55rGWwltwUiV5iGB3l2\/s320\/FRED10Minus22024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from FRED since 1976.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote that \u003Cb\u003Erecessions usually happen after the yield curve reverts\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; However, this time, inflation was driven by pandemic economics (supply shocks, etc), and \u003Cb\u003Eit seems likely the yield curve will revert without a recession\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/T10Y2Y\"\u003EClick here for interactive graph at FRED\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOne of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment).\u0026nbsp; The purpose of the next graph is to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEht7bBWniKkfAiwF_dk7oTdUaOko2doIjqz98IWZiKRLaXWYPmBZPsusubxM6SS3woAG3VbK7RqKAcz3M_RQPQ3i2W6oqW0kb6E5HA2zjyN5Dc1hZ1N7WTlUdOKzwLrqpV7wpwdW1EBZesJrpi5u0djPVhvguXnRfE8-zUOV5VffsSfZmYo2yNR\/s1076\/HousingCycleDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Starts, new home sales, residential Investment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEht7bBWniKkfAiwF_dk7oTdUaOko2doIjqz98IWZiKRLaXWYPmBZPsusubxM6SS3woAG3VbK7RqKAcz3M_RQPQ3i2W6oqW0kb6E5HA2zjyN5Dc1hZ1N7WTlUdOKzwLrqpV7wpwdW1EBZesJrpi5u0djPVhvguXnRfE8-zUOV5VffsSfZmYo2yNR\/s320\/HousingCycleDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe arrows point to some of the earlier peaks and troughs for these three measures - and the most recent likely bottom.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003ENew home sales and single-family starts turned down in 2022 in response to higher mortgage rates.\u0026nbsp; However, all three measures appear to have bottomed without a recession.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjTGzMtQmDbU2-ru6cg4JDlQtVSc-NAmJ4QmApmN3W9eJxA7boRMfpp9b-NcbTo84QTsqh-z-59Qnc_cP151pylFFPfnZPN1s90mV9uka5okbvSAxBDxIblSErmf46fGKARNRCpMthVS1TtYmQ144cTGCxY8Zl5-EwJ1ZPQkp-ea4ypQZNcZfe-\/s991\/NHSYoYChangeDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"YoY Change New Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjTGzMtQmDbU2-ru6cg4JDlQtVSc-NAmJ4QmApmN3W9eJxA7boRMfpp9b-NcbTo84QTsqh-z-59Qnc_cP151pylFFPfnZPN1s90mV9uka5okbvSAxBDxIblSErmf46fGKARNRCpMthVS1TtYmQ144cTGCxY8Zl5-EwJ1ZPQkp-ea4ypQZNcZfe-\/s320\/NHSYoYChangeDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe third graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau.\u0026nbsp; Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average) are up 5% year-over-year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EUsually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow.\u0026nbsp; An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Another exception was in late 2021\u0026nbsp;- we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003EI ignored that pandemic distortion\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIMPORTANT: These business cycle models (yield curve, housing) are very useful, but I'm not a slave to any model!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHere is a table of the annual change in real GDP since 2005.\u0026nbsp; Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. \u0026nbsp;Given current demographics, that is about what we'd expect: See: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/02\/demographics-and-gdp-2-is-new-4.html\"\u003E2% is the new 4%.\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote: This table includes both annual change and q4 over the previous q4 (two slightly different measures). \u0026nbsp; For 2023, I used a 2.6% growth rate Q4 over Q4.\u0026nbsp; (this gives 2.4% real annual growth).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 300px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"3\"\u003EReal GDP Growth\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYear\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EAnnual\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nGDP\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EQ4 \/ Q4\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2005\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2006\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2007\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2008\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-2.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2009\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-2.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2010\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2011\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2012\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2013\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2014\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2015\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2016\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2017\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2018\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2019\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2020\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-2.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-1.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2021\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2023\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E    \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"3\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E 2023 estimate based on 2.6% Q4 SAAR\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nannualized real growth rate.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMy sense is growth will be sluggish in 2024, and the economy will avoid recession\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Monetary policy is restrictive, but the Fed is expected to cut rates this year.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Vehicle sales will probably pick up in 2024, and so will new home sales.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESo, my guess is that \u003Cb\u003Ereal GDP growth will be positive in the 1% to 2% range in 2024\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EHere are the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E and a few predictions:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-1-for-2024-how-much-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-2-for-2024-how-much-will-job.html\"\u003EQuestion #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-3-for-2024-what-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #3 for 2024: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-4-for-2024-what-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #4 for 2024: What will the participation rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-5-for-2024-what-will-yoy-core.html\"\u003EQuestion #5 for 2024: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-6-for-2024-what-will-fed-funds.html\"\u003EQuestion #6 for 2024: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-7-for-2024-how-much-will-wages.html\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2024-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2024-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2024-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024? \u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3475615341172333048\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3475615341172333048","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3475615341172333048"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3475615341172333048"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-1-for-2024-how-much-will.html","title":"Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjie78IzIQxcPmX0o762iyzNTZ21UVMIZHrCXSEWaCfCofXVWf9F6wKcXCC-9ZOgYpXSTnHHYYGak0qwkh7v4fX8F-ZBIRvVFYVjqgf_gy8aSpWOdZdJtbl0GN83PbEBdlD4qFJ0i8VvtIoKtPFuDnNbmhm6_sLHNFvL55rGWwltwUiV5iGB3l2\/s72-c\/FRED10Minus22024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1892080424886052629"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-10T12:32:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-10T12:32:27.471-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-ab5\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThis 2-part overview for mid-January provides a snapshot of the current housing market.   This includes sales, house prices, inventory, mortgage rates, rents and more.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inventory-will-tell-the-tale-dbb\"\u003Etells the tale\u003C\/a\u003E!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \nHere is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/december-2023-data\/\"\u003EDecember 2023 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report\u003C\/a\u003E showing new listings were up 9.1% year-over-year in December. New listings finished 2023 up year-over-year mostly because new listings collapsed in the 2nd half of 2022. From Realtor.com:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_2CZowwervPkPBvhRWcDibkfQ1cNBJZRUdVvk9qF0M1QX9florYp5oSXIVKecCccJO1Wl0YK_zMfRecOxp-nZQ-Dnaaj1l2Z13cDW-9fr8LM8pCy6_tLf3A5_Xf4Kdihc31CmHwAaSPukzr6HkUyK1EPc15fECsRvX9CxokelU3dpDCLoHFx9\/s852\/RealtorNewNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Listings\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_2CZowwervPkPBvhRWcDibkfQ1cNBJZRUdVvk9qF0M1QX9florYp5oSXIVKecCccJO1Wl0YK_zMfRecOxp-nZQ-Dnaaj1l2Z13cDW-9fr8LM8pCy6_tLf3A5_Xf4Kdihc31CmHwAaSPukzr6HkUyK1EPc15fECsRvX9CxokelU3dpDCLoHFx9\/s320\/RealtorNewNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EProviding a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this December as newly listed homes were 9.1% above last year’s levels. This marked the second month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline.\u003C\/blockquote\u003ENote the seasonality for new listings.  \u003Cb\u003EDecember and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings\u003C\/b\u003E.  It seems very likely that new listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but we will \u003Cb\u003Ehave to wait for the March data\u003C\/b\u003E to see how close new listings are to normal levels.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1892080424886052629\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1892080424886052629","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1892080424886052629"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1892080424886052629"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/part-1-current-state-of-housing-market.html","title":"Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj_2CZowwervPkPBvhRWcDibkfQ1cNBJZRUdVvk9qF0M1QX9florYp5oSXIVKecCccJO1Wl0YK_zMfRecOxp-nZQ-Dnaaj1l2Z13cDW-9fr8LM8pCy6_tLf3A5_Xf4Kdihc31CmHwAaSPukzr6HkUyK1EPc15fECsRvX9CxokelU3dpDCLoHFx9\/s72-c\/RealtorNewNov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1926363634342732958"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-10T11:52:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-10T11:52:12.419-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in December, Down 11% from Peak"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Dodge Data Analytics: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/category\/dodge-momentum-index\/\"\u003EDodge Momentum Index Improves 3% in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network (DCN), rose 3% in December to 186.6 (2000=100) from the revised November reading of 181.5. Over the month, commercial planning grew 1.0% and institutional planning improved 6.1%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“\u003Cb\u003EThe Momentum Index ended the year 11% below the November 2022 peak\u003C\/b\u003E, ultimately stabilizing as the year progressed. Regardless, the DMI averaged a reading of 184.3 in 2023, hitting levels of activity that haven’t been recorded since 2008,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for DCN. “While ongoing labor and construction cost issues will persist in 2024, a substantive amount of projects are sitting in the planning queue and will support construction spending going into 2025.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEigk5YsyayOa2SX1LDw9iWZg_bEXtQvoCdetoTM9IDzf61pP0X9TrR7Ok7uhNJpdjaNDsJFOxNi3w48_a5eYh23nk7a_FVy-6-8eUUCwP768KNMkpcea0_WTcIB60x-ttluZJh7OgAsm_fUYZWU_shSBv_LbObhyphenhyphen6YD3QyJbM8688jAz1jmVo0v\/s1065\/DodgeDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Dodge Momentum Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEigk5YsyayOa2SX1LDw9iWZg_bEXtQvoCdetoTM9IDzf61pP0X9TrR7Ok7uhNJpdjaNDsJFOxNi3w48_a5eYh23nk7a_FVy-6-8eUUCwP768KNMkpcea0_WTcIB60x-ttluZJh7OgAsm_fUYZWU_shSBv_LbObhyphenhyphen6YD3QyJbM8688jAz1jmVo0v\/s320\/DodgeDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 186.6 in December, up from 181.5 the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to Dodge, this index leads \"construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year\".\u0026nbsp; This index suggests some slowdown in 2024.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECommercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1926363634342732958\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1926363634342732958","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1926363634342732958"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1926363634342732958"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/leading-index-for-commercial-real.html","title":"Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in December, Down 11% from Peak"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEigk5YsyayOa2SX1LDw9iWZg_bEXtQvoCdetoTM9IDzf61pP0X9TrR7Ok7uhNJpdjaNDsJFOxNi3w48_a5eYh23nk7a_FVy-6-8eUUCwP768KNMkpcea0_WTcIB60x-ttluZJh7OgAsm_fUYZWU_shSBv_LbObhyphenhyphen6YD3QyJbM8688jAz1jmVo0v\/s72-c\/DodgeDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9132918473904540368"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-10T09:47:00.007-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T11:31:04.060-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #2 for 2024:  How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2) \u003Cb\u003EEmployment:\u003C\/b\u003E Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;This is down from 4.8 million jobs added in 2022, and 7.3 million in 2021 (the two best years ever), but still a solid year for employment gains. How much will job growth slow in 2024?\u0026nbsp; Or will the economy lose jobs?\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor review, here is a table of the annual change in total nonfarm, private and public sector payrolls jobs since 1997.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 360px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"4\"\u003EChange in Payroll Jobs per Year (000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ETotal, Nonfarm\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EPrivate\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EPublic\u003C\/th\u003E\n\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E1997\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3,406\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3,211\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E195\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E1998\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3,048\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,735\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E313\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E1999\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3,181\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,720\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E461\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,938\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,674\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E264\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2001\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-1,733\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-2,284\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E551\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2002\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-515\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-748\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E233\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2003\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E125\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E167\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-42\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2004\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,038\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,891\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E147\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2005\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,528\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,342\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E186\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2006\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,092\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,883\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E209\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2007\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,145\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E857\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E288\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2008\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,549\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,729\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E180\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2009\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-5,041\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-4,967\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-74\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2010\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,027\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,243\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-216\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2011\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,066\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,378\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-312\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2012\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,174\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,241\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-67\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2013\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,293\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,360\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-67\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2014\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,998\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,871\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E127\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2015\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,717\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,567\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E150\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2016\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,325\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,118\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E207\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2017\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,113\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,033\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E80\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2018\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,284\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,157\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E127\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2019\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,959\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,747\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E212\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2020\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-9,289\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-8,237\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-1,052\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2021\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7,267\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6,882\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E385\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4,793\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4,518\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E275\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2023\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,697\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,025\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E672\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe good news is job market still has momentum heading into 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhrxKBR273HeBQoNy9gkaM37XDQqh5PE6kuaeE8OZWHBvQMTdsx7tDotpUGbyFlsUfwEoQg43Ac9riQeCW0ZZcUvF5L6CYwmydI0uCNvuCc9brvzN-wti_vn4gN4FNLUQvcBcICY0g1wbNevyVpoksEdlRh1jgqssbgz4zoHIxAYS8SFHkFiqcH\/s924\/JobsDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment per month\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhrxKBR273HeBQoNy9gkaM37XDQqh5PE6kuaeE8OZWHBvQMTdsx7tDotpUGbyFlsUfwEoQg43Ac9riQeCW0ZZcUvF5L6CYwmydI0uCNvuCc9brvzN-wti_vn4gN4FNLUQvcBcICY0g1wbNevyVpoksEdlRh1jgqssbgz4zoHIxAYS8SFHkFiqcH\/s320\/JobsDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere was strong job growth in 2021 and 2022 as the economy bounced back from the pandemic recession.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EJob growth slowed in 2023 but was still historically strong.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 320px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EConstruction Jobs (000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EManufacturing (000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2006\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E152\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-178\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2007\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-195\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-269\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2008\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-789\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-896\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2009\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-1,047\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-1,375\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2010\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-187\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E120\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2011\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E144\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E207\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2012\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E113\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E158\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2013\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E208\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E123\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2014\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E361\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E209\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2015\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E337\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E70\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2016\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E188\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-7\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2017\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E273\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E178\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2018\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E305\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E263\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2019\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E132\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2020\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-173\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-602\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2021\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E239\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E385\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E265\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E390\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E2023\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E197\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor manufacturing, there will probably be some growth in the auto sector in 2024, and possibly in other manufacturing sectors.\u0026nbsp; However, for construction, multi-family construction will slow in 2024, and so will several commercial real estate sectors (based on both the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/aia-architecture-firm-billings-continue.html\"\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/a\u003E and the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/11\/leading-index-for-commercial-real.html\"\u003EDodge Momentum Index\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSo,\u0026nbsp;my forecast is for gains\u0026nbsp;of around 1.0 million to 1.5 million jobs in 2024.\u0026nbsp; This would be another solid year for employment gains given current demographics.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EHere are the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E and a few predictions:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-1-for-2024-how-much-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-2-for-2024-how-much-will-job.html\"\u003EQuestion #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-3-for-2024-what-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #3 for 2024: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-4-for-2024-what-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #4 for 2024: What will the participation rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-5-for-2024-what-will-yoy-core.html\"\u003EQuestion #5 for 2024: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-6-for-2024-what-will-fed-funds.html\"\u003EQuestion #6 for 2024: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-7-for-2024-how-much-will-wages.html\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2024-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2024-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2024-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024? \u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9132918473904540368\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9132918473904540368","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9132918473904540368"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9132918473904540368"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-2-for-2024-how-much-will-job.html","title":"Question #2 for 2024:  How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhrxKBR273HeBQoNy9gkaM37XDQqh5PE6kuaeE8OZWHBvQMTdsx7tDotpUGbyFlsUfwEoQg43Ac9riQeCW0ZZcUvF5L6CYwmydI0uCNvuCc9brvzN-wti_vn4gN4FNLUQvcBcICY0g1wbNevyVpoksEdlRh1jgqssbgz4zoHIxAYS8SFHkFiqcH\/s72-c\/JobsDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6653417092174785412"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-10T07:00:00.019-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-10T07:00:00.137-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications increased 9.9 percent from one \nweek earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage \nApplications Survey for the week ending January 5, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account \nfor the New Year’s holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.9 percent on \na seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 45\npercent compared with the previous week. The holiday adjusted Refinance Index increased 19 percent\nfrom the previous week and was 30 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted\nRefinance Index increased 53 percent from the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same \nweek one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. \nThe unadjusted Purchase Index increased 40 percent compared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E16\npercent lower than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Despite an uptick in mortgage rates to start 2024, applications increased after adjusting for the holiday,” \nsaid Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The increase in purchase and \nrefinance applications for both conventional and government loans is promising to start the year but was \nlikely due to some catch-up in activity after the holiday season and year-end rate declines. Mortgage rates \nand applications have been volatile in recent weeks and overall activity remains low.”\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances \n($726,200 or less) increased to 6.81 percent from 6.76 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.61\n(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. \u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjr9fV0yhXOL4uJ3Vy2EjEUJ0G1QEiZ5BovYMy4LlM2Hs0e3s0TvbyvX-4u99CSSIa6F7BECGMUq0pj5ZvXdHwi9Q6GjgvB-lvUfjQh4SGe0qO2Rb48-_mbJ_Qpk5Gul0ubU9zFHKZAmISlMebeVChj78ROM8Qi3vlMFMrhupSdDT_FKAaMS-JQ\/s1086\/MBAJan102024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjr9fV0yhXOL4uJ3Vy2EjEUJ0G1QEiZ5BovYMy4LlM2Hs0e3s0TvbyvX-4u99CSSIa6F7BECGMUq0pj5ZvXdHwi9Q6GjgvB-lvUfjQh4SGe0qO2Rb48-_mbJ_Qpk5Gul0ubU9zFHKZAmISlMebeVChj78ROM8Qi3vlMFMrhupSdDT_FKAaMS-JQ\/s320\/MBAJan102024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 16% year-over-year unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPurchase application activity is up from the lows in late October and early November, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust.\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhfCqOhRGFvkOfeQFfRbYsWkorUlInb_hmwlaFZZity_7l-Z7O2jRyz8brwMzEnHsK1W4fcm8YpD6KtVHKBbcvscnRVmNEttpXE4aN1rEH3QdlFjetj2AECZZRjJvyzhPypAEKVvKOYXqwmP46PFMk8ML-fGL1X5mkQOwq9fEeiCTdVV0xhnoCx\/s1084\/MBARefiJan102024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhfCqOhRGFvkOfeQFfRbYsWkorUlInb_hmwlaFZZity_7l-Z7O2jRyz8brwMzEnHsK1W4fcm8YpD6KtVHKBbcvscnRVmNEttpXE4aN1rEH3QdlFjetj2AECZZRjJvyzhPypAEKVvKOYXqwmP46PFMk8ML-fGL1X5mkQOwq9fEeiCTdVV0xhnoCx\/s320\/MBARefiJan102024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and even with some recent increases, activity is barely off the bottom.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6653417092174785412\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6653417092174785412","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6653417092174785412"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6653417092174785412"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/mba-mortgage-applications-increased-in.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjr9fV0yhXOL4uJ3Vy2EjEUJ0G1QEiZ5BovYMy4LlM2Hs0e3s0TvbyvX-4u99CSSIa6F7BECGMUq0pj5ZvXdHwi9Q6GjgvB-lvUfjQh4SGe0qO2Rb48-_mbJ_Qpk5Gul0ubU9zFHKZAmISlMebeVChj78ROM8Qi3vlMFMrhupSdDT_FKAaMS-JQ\/s72-c\/MBAJan102024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4958803431647775015"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-09T19:48:00.005-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-09T19:48:00.188-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Mortgage Applications"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjqTIQ1o8X6wFGt4-V8OHCpU0iQuwgps7-GwbHNbaZ7pcA-jYirtkUrL0C50BLiTE7sMs6r1ZIaZS4nTkiFArXIeisYXX5JudlADtOJ0fYIC5PORmatywQDDMkR3lbznWNQwJP2MROtSpn0Xl4wfSLDy4Jh77qt8LROHUAJVnD7EDcfDnoMXYvq\/s391\/RatesJan92024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjqTIQ1o8X6wFGt4-V8OHCpU0iQuwgps7-GwbHNbaZ7pcA-jYirtkUrL0C50BLiTE7sMs6r1ZIaZS4nTkiFArXIeisYXX5JudlADtOJ0fYIC5PORmatywQDDMkR3lbznWNQwJP2MROtSpn0Xl4wfSLDy4Jh77qt8LROHUAJVnD7EDcfDnoMXYvq\/s320\/RatesJan92024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4958803431647775015\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4958803431647775015","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4958803431647775015"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4958803431647775015"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/wednesday-mortgage-applications.html","title":"Wednesday: Mortgage Applications"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjqTIQ1o8X6wFGt4-V8OHCpU0iQuwgps7-GwbHNbaZ7pcA-jYirtkUrL0C50BLiTE7sMs6r1ZIaZS4nTkiFArXIeisYXX5JudlADtOJ0fYIC5PORmatywQDDMkR3lbznWNQwJP2MROtSpn0Xl4wfSLDy4Jh77qt8LROHUAJVnD7EDcfDnoMXYvq\/s72-c\/RatesJan92024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5118199827363223963"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-09T16:08:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T11:31:21.426-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #3 for 2024:  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n3) \u003Cb\u003EUnemployment Rate:\u003C\/b\u003E The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in November, up from 3.6% in November 2022.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Currently the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20231213.htm\"\u003EFOMC is forecasting\u003C\/a\u003E the unemployment rate will increase to the 4.0% to 4.2% range in Q4 2024. \u0026nbsp;What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2018\/01\/question-3-for-2018-what-will.html\"\u003ESix years ago\u003C\/a\u003E - back when most analysts said the unemployment rate couldn't go much lower - I noted that current demographics shared some similarities to the '60s, and that the unemployment rate bottomed at 3.4% in the '60s - and that we might see the unemployment rate that low or lower in this cycle.  That happened, and from a demographics perspective, an unemployment rate below 4% would probably not be inflationary.\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHere is a graph of the unemployment rate over time.\u0026nbsp; Note the period in the late '60s when the unemployment rate was mostly below 4% for four consecutive years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhs9-5H0fRfK8SjR1HrLJL9HuPVnRpVSzHB3U4GdNYI9_vL4GAkQwoUfYt-gFtyq9_T323XfQmKp39ZNhLFQ6zZP3HWuha1L2p0ai-YdEZKmjao99nH_xngnjUx3ftZEDe3hHi0aaQ5Pi4jan9gpX6FuuKiELD4sZkQm9L62eZ7825K-JrJB8I9\/s1010\/UnemployDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"unemployment rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhs9-5H0fRfK8SjR1HrLJL9HuPVnRpVSzHB3U4GdNYI9_vL4GAkQwoUfYt-gFtyq9_T323XfQmKp39ZNhLFQ6zZP3HWuha1L2p0ai-YdEZKmjao99nH_xngnjUx3ftZEDe3hHi0aaQ5Pi4jan9gpX6FuuKiELD4sZkQm9L62eZ7825K-JrJB8I9\/s320\/UnemployDec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe unemployment rate is from the household survey (CPS), and the rate was mostly flat in 2023. The unemployment rate increased in December to 3.7%, up from 3.5% in December 2022.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nForecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHere is a table of the participation rate and unemployment rate since 2008.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 620px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"4\"\u003EUnemployment and Participation Rate for December each Year\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EDecember of\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EParticipation Rate\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EChange in Participation Rate (percentage points)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EUnemployment Rate\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2008\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E65.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2009\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E64.6%\u003C\/td\u003E \u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-1.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2010\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E64.3%\u003C\/td\u003E \u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-0.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2011\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E64.0%\u003C\/td\u003E \u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-0.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E8.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2012\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E63.7%\u003C\/td\u003E \u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-0.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2013\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E62.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-0.8\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2014\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E62.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-0.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2015\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E62.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-0.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2016\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E62.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2017\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E62.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2018\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E63.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2019\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E63.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2020\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E61.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-1.8\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2021\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E62.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2022\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E62.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2023\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E62.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EDepending on the estimate for the participation rate and job growth (next question), my guess is the unemployment rate will remain in the mid-to-high 3% range in December 2024.\u0026nbsp; (Lower than the FOMC forecast of 4.0% to 4.2%).\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EHere are the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E and a few predictions:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-1-for-2024-how-much-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-2-for-2024-how-much-will-job.html\"\u003EQuestion #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-3-for-2024-what-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #3 for 2024: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-4-for-2024-what-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #4 for 2024: What will the participation rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-5-for-2024-what-will-yoy-core.html\"\u003EQuestion #5 for 2024: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-6-for-2024-what-will-fed-funds.html\"\u003EQuestion #6 for 2024: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-7-for-2024-how-much-will-wages.html\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2024-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2024-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2024-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024? \u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5118199827363223963\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5118199827363223963","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5118199827363223963"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5118199827363223963"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-3-for-2024-what-will.html","title":"Question #3 for 2024:  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhs9-5H0fRfK8SjR1HrLJL9HuPVnRpVSzHB3U4GdNYI9_vL4GAkQwoUfYt-gFtyq9_T323XfQmKp39ZNhLFQ6zZP3HWuha1L2p0ai-YdEZKmjao99nH_xngnjUx3ftZEDe3hHi0aaQ5Pi4jan9gpX6FuuKiELD4sZkQm9L62eZ7825K-JrJB8I9\/s72-c\/UnemployDec2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7050008648368934399"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-09T14:21:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-09T14:21:48.169-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-9d0\"\u003E1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ENOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is the first look at several early reporting local markets in December. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nClosed sales in December were mostly for contracts signed in October and November. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg7rS6IjAqeAWHNNKj9-mFDi3TslviMzo4mYL9L3EzGDq_OEbYFOiTCSB36BEDlckPdh82yqjKbIxEfURH5miFL1fWKxCO8p3XH_miOTMP03ZmGyVR_yf82GdyZCM5VxQ8ORGSyK9eTzbXigSwMy1ozNwdw0b4toLNyUyEp9fgrj0Bs4qADORlQ\/s600\/ClosedDec2023V1.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg7rS6IjAqeAWHNNKj9-mFDi3TslviMzo4mYL9L3EzGDq_OEbYFOiTCSB36BEDlckPdh82yqjKbIxEfURH5miFL1fWKxCO8p3XH_miOTMP03ZmGyVR_yf82GdyZCM5VxQ8ORGSyK9eTzbXigSwMy1ozNwdw0b4toLNyUyEp9fgrj0Bs4qADORlQ\/s320\/ClosedDec2023V1.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd a table of December sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn December, sales in these markets were down 7.9%. In November, these same markets were down 11.3% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nSales in all of these markets are down sharply compared to December 2019.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7050008648368934399\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7050008648368934399","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7050008648368934399"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7050008648368934399"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg7rS6IjAqeAWHNNKj9-mFDi3TslviMzo4mYL9L3EzGDq_OEbYFOiTCSB36BEDlckPdh82yqjKbIxEfURH5miFL1fWKxCO8p3XH_miOTMP03ZmGyVR_yf82GdyZCM5VxQ8ORGSyK9eTzbXigSwMy1ozNwdw0b4toLNyUyEp9fgrj0Bs4qADORlQ\/s72-c\/ClosedDec2023V1.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6939934139724173359"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-09T11:11:00.007-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-11T11:31:40.312-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #4 for 2024: What will the participation rate be in December 2024?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E4) \u003Cb\u003EParticipation Rate:\u003C\/b\u003E In November 2023, the overall participation rate was at 62.8%, up year-over-year from 62.2% in November 2022, but still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.3%.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Long term, the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/ecopro.nr0.htm\"\u003EBLS is projecting\u003C\/a\u003E the overall participation rate will decline to 60.4% by 2032 due to demographics.\u0026nbsp; What will the participation rate be in December 2024?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe overall labor force participation rate is the percentage of the working age population (16 + years old) in the labor force. \u0026nbsp; A large portion of the decline in the participation rate since 2000 was due to demographics and long-term trends.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgAvhoF68xnMBTs18q-WMt-RjaglmMDli_DNCN6UrmfNB1OBgacP80YObjzixAdBR_Mq7EmmLjpRUnDRXZLVQM6z0o0_mxefCkhunoQ99cCS7jhOl10K9tqtyZa967ATpz2YR3XxY7FaimzF6_HxZZyd4GERoMMXqeyMy4zbkisorsMubKzNrqs\/s1057\/EmployPopDec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjbefNUbrGGSQwPe5CdDQOOeHM696yJF-QdwskMyejBfb7ctG7m7Ngk34DTqZ0wrIrqQ3gAAbKBmSY19_MXslZak-xbrHL-RHMlx8QPn5_CuA6u_Qibc3swB5dUQsFZtqaqBm_eb0GVZCCcv2eZWp5O7GGz8-zVIEPJmV7g2xV1FQVySZrKcA\/s320\/EmployPopDec2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe Labor Force Participation Rate in December 2023 was at 62.5% (red), down from the pre-pandemic level of 63.4% in February 2020, and up from the pandemic low of 60.1% in April 2020. (Blue is the employment population ratio).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn April 2020, 8 million people had left the labor force due to the pandemic.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;By December 2023, the labor force was about 3 million higher than the pre-pandemic high.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPopulation growth had been weak but picked up in 2022 and 2023 due to fewer deaths and more immigration.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgTLykIKyibse66sq2rPOb5m5n_Ys8jCiYREDbuWkfNHgvNOsPalqZ5gfUPKUdL5p4GIEmPU4sKDxx0zpBnQSvfvdJd6rrAiySq_sgfDUeHF9fYKHsnZ9aNsuAHY6g5fy4_KQXPaFvZLJeHMLtuse7pfAqpFQ437dxzj3j95V_Nbct6XabQ3-j5\/s1062\/EmployPop2554Dec2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgTLykIKyibse66sq2rPOb5m5n_Ys8jCiYREDbuWkfNHgvNOsPalqZ5gfUPKUdL5p4GIEmPU4sKDxx0zpBnQSvfvdJd6rrAiySq_sgfDUeHF9fYKHsnZ9aNsuAHY6g5fy4_KQXPaFvZLJeHMLtuse7pfAqpFQ437dxzj3j95V_Nbct6XabQ3-j5\/s320\/EmployPop2554Dec2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the participation rate for \"prime age\" workers (25 to 54 years old).  The 25 to 54 participation rate was at 83.2% in December 2023 Red), slightly above the pre-pandemic level of 83.0%.\u0026nbsp; This suggests most of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere are probably a few more people that will return to the workforce in 2024, pushing up the participation rate.\u0026nbsp; However, demographics will be pushing the rate down.\u0026nbsp; So, my guess is the participation rate will decline slightly in 2024 to around 62.3%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHere are the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E and a few predictions:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-1-for-2024-how-much-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-2-for-2024-how-much-will-job.html\"\u003EQuestion #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-3-for-2024-what-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #3 for 2024: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-4-for-2024-what-will.html\"\u003EQuestion #4 for 2024: What will the participation rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-5-for-2024-what-will-yoy-core.html\"\u003EQuestion #5 for 2024: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-6-for-2024-what-will-fed-funds.html\"\u003EQuestion #6 for 2024: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-7-for-2024-how-much-will-wages.html\"\u003EQuestion #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-8-for-2024-how-much-will\"\u003EQuestion #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2024-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2024-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024? \u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6939934139724173359\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6939934139724173359","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6939934139724173359"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6939934139724173359"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-4-for-2024-what-will.html","title":"Question #4 for 2024: What will the participation rate be in December 2024?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjbefNUbrGGSQwPe5CdDQOOeHM696yJF-QdwskMyejBfb7ctG7m7Ngk34DTqZ0wrIrqQ3gAAbKBmSY19_MXslZak-xbrHL-RHMlx8QPn5_CuA6u_Qibc3swB5dUQsFZtqaqBm_eb0GVZCCcv2eZWp5O7GGz8-zVIEPJmV7g2xV1FQVySZrKcA\/s72-c\/EmployPopDec2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});