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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"27675"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6703849376571380331"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-21T18:07:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-21T18:07:24.129-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Homebuilder Comments in Mid-April: Crazy Price Increases, Offers Way Over Ask,  Costs Increasing Quickly"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Some \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RickPalaciosJr\/status\/1384951354460971008\"\u003Etwitter comments from Rick Palacios Jr.\u003C\/a\u003E, Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting\u003Cblockquote\u003ESome interesting housing color from mid-April around the country home builder channel check. Bunch of market commentary to follow...will try to hit most top markets.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E#SaltLakeCity home builder mid-April color: “Still have 10x buyers to available homes to buy. Went to 'highest\/ best' offer system March 1st \u0026 offers over asking price are shocking. Most offers are 10+% over ask, that's after raised base prices $10K to $20K+ with each release.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Austin home builder mid-April color: “Super high demand. Volume controlled with release process, otherwise would be unbearable. Some price increases are $100K between releases.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Dallas home builder mid-April color: “Limiting sales in 100% of communities. Can’t sell ahead as costs are rising too quickly. We may stop selling and become a spec builder until costs stabilize.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Houston home builder mid-April color: “Increasing prices 2% to 3% a month to keep up with costs.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#LasVegas home builder mid-April color: “Only selling homes under construction, no dirt sales due to the variability of construction costs. Waiting lists at pretty much every community and restricting investors.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Phoenix home builder mid-April color: “Continue restricting sales but priority lists are increasing and buyers seem accustomed to the rising prices and are still anxious to move forward. Price increases each week\/each release.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E   #Denver home builder mid-April color: “Doing price increases twice a month.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#RaleighDurham home builder mid-April color: “Opening 4 new neighborhoods and seeing tremendous pre-sale interest (checks, etc… prior to us releasing prices).” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Nashville home builder mid-April color: “Limiting most of our sales to inventory releases when a home is through the framing stage where a reasonably accurate delivery date can be given.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Charlotte home builder mid-April color: “Capping sales at 4 per month for each community, which is frustrating customers. Finished lots are golden.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#RiversideSanBernardino home builder mid-April color: “Anyone walking in is a buyer. There are no looky-loos. Raising prices at an obscene level.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#OrangeCounty home builder mid-April color: “Raising prices materially each sales phase release. It’s crazy, but so are our costs. Many of the homes are being bought by investors.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Seattle home builder mid-April color: “We have monthly price increases per community. All have escalators in multiple offers we are getting, ranging from $20k to $200k over list price. Offer reviews are pushing pricing beyond our list price by 10% or more.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Portland home builder mid-April color: “Can’t price them high enough…they’re selling anyway…for now, at least.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Boise home builder mid-April color: “Restricting sales until closer to homes being finished.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#DC home builder mid-April color: “Increasing prices pretty much everywhere.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Boston home builder mid-April color: “When homes are released, they go almost immediately. Sales as strong as I can remember. Pushing price on every release with no resistance.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#SanJose home builder mid-April color: “Running out of inventory. Sales remain strong, starting to hold back releases until construction can catch up.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#EastBayCA home builder mid-April color: “Swamped right now. Still seeing a lot of traffic, increases prices and totally sold out with very little (if any) inventory.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Indianapolis home builder mid-April color: “Traffic down slightly from March but still well over our normal volume. Restricting sales as demand is still really strong. Stopped taking VIPs because list of interested buyers is longer than the number of lots we have.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Chicago home builder mid-April color: “Concern about the overpaying and that when Covid settles down there could be some big hits taken.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#WestPalmBeach home builder mid-April color: “Sales are still strong although it feels like pricing has peaked, too soon to tell.  In certain locations our increases have finally started to slow sales from the frenetic pace.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Jacksonville home builder mid-April color: “Sales are restricted to 85% of neighborhoods. Drawings for lots and highest\/best offers are some of methods used to select buyers. Continue raising prices, no differences among segments.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Jacksonville \u0026amp; #Orlando home builder mid-April color: “Seeing investors back in play in some of our markets. Sales caps in many communities but not all markets yet.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Naples \u0026amp; #Sarasota home builder mid-April color: “We dramatically restricted sales in order to keep up with our backlog. Our slowdown is intentional.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Orlando, #Jacksonville, #Tampa home builder mid-April color: “Some of our competitors have closed models to traffic or will not release homes until they get past a certain stage.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E#Tampa home builder mid-April color: “We will likely turn off sales early again this month.” THE END\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6703849376571380331\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6703849376571380331","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6703849376571380331"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6703849376571380331"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/homebuilder-comments-in-mid-april-crazy.html","title":"Homebuilder Comments in Mid-April: Crazy Price Increases, Offers Way Over Ask,  Costs Increasing Quickly"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6860495713801363586"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-21T16:20:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-21T16:20:30.988-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"April 21st COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ENote:\u003C\/b\u003E I'm looking forward to not posting this daily!  I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once \u003Cb\u003Eall three of these criteria\u003C\/b\u003E are met:\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003E216.0 million doses have been administered\u003C\/a\u003E.  33.8% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 51.5% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (\u003Cb\u003E133.0 million people over 18 have had at least one dose\u003C\/b\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidactnow.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Act Now\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAlmost \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths\"\u003E13,500 US deaths\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;were reported so far in April due to COVID.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-DU8QLEHrMbI\/YIB8NKhgmwI\/AAAAAAAA5BE\/jd48rIiV8usLCvHaJmMcmrUdX7U4Jz9DwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1436\/COVIDApr212021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-DU8QLEHrMbI\/YIB8NKhgmwI\/AAAAAAAA5BE\/jd48rIiV8usLCvHaJmMcmrUdX7U4Jz9DwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDApr212021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 7-day average is 64,144, down from 66,824 yesterday, and below the summer surge peak of 67,337 on July 23, 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-wzEAuTprNZY\/YICI3BqGwzI\/AAAAAAAA5BM\/x31spE_Xxx01zAJprPVO5onYCFS6Njd2QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1429\/COVIDHospitalApr212021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Hospitalized\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-wzEAuTprNZY\/YICI3BqGwzI\/AAAAAAAA5BM\/x31spE_Xxx01zAJprPVO5onYCFS6Njd2QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDHospitalApr212021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#hospitalizations\"\u003Edata is also from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, \u003Cb\u003Ethe area in grey will probably increase\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe current 7-day average is 38,414, up from 38,185, reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6860495713801363586\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6860495713801363586","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6860495713801363586"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6860495713801363586"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/april-21st-covid-19-vaccinations-new.html","title":"April 21st COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-DU8QLEHrMbI\/YIB8NKhgmwI\/AAAAAAAA5BE\/jd48rIiV8usLCvHaJmMcmrUdX7U4Jz9DwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDApr212021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-630493571640653946"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-21T14:36:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-21T14:36:08.248-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 49 States in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/-\/media\/frbp\/assets\/surveys-and-data\/coincident\/2021\/coincidentindexes0321.pdf\"\u003EPhilly Fed\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2021. Over the  past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one state, for a three-month diffusion index of 96.  Additionally, in the past month, \u003Cb\u003Ethe indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one state\u003C\/b\u003E, for a one-month diffusion  index of 96. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire  United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 1.6 percent over the past three months and 0.6 percent in March. .\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ENote: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data.  An explanation from the Philly Fed: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fY1OC98jKnI\/YIBuYbpX4VI\/AAAAAAAA5A0\/cYgPtl3lUu4PL02ugCMupqbhPE3x6EOLwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s813\/PhillyMapMar2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Philly Fed State Conincident Map\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fY1OC98jKnI\/YIBuYbpX4VI\/AAAAAAAA5A0\/cYgPtl3lUu4PL02ugCMupqbhPE3x6EOLwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PhillyMapMar2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on map for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators.  This \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/-\/media\/frbp\/assets\/surveys-and-data\/coincident\/maps\/2020\/2020-04.png\"\u003Emap was all red\u003C\/a\u003E during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe map is almost all positive on a three month basis.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESource: Philly Fed. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-FGC8oMUOZn8\/YIBwXHVfd7I\/AAAAAAAA5A8\/b7CsLw9TAEQZhnTie-Z6O--Li6_fubFrQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1020\/PhillyFedMar2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing Activity\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-FGC8oMUOZn8\/YIBwXHVfd7I\/AAAAAAAA5A8\/b7CsLw9TAEQZhnTie-Z6O--Li6_fubFrQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PhillyFedMar2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn March, 49 states had increasing activity.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/630493571640653946\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=630493571640653946","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/630493571640653946"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/630493571640653946"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/philly-fed-state-coincident-indexes.html","title":"Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 49 States in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fY1OC98jKnI\/YIBuYbpX4VI\/AAAAAAAA5A0\/cYgPtl3lUu4PL02ugCMupqbhPE3x6EOLwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/PhillyMapMar2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8681807176229727718"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-21T12:23:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-21T12:23:56.425-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 10.6% year-over-year in February"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"This will be something to watch as the economy recovers.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Department of Transportation (DOT) \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.fhwa.dot.gov\/policyinformation\/travel_monitoring\/21febtvt\/\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ETravel on all roads and streets changed by -12.1% (-28.3 billion vehicle miles) for February 2021 as compared with February 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 205.4 billion vehicle miles.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for February 2021 is 245.9 billion miles, a -10.6% (-29.1 billion vehicle miles) decline from February 2020\u003C\/b\u003E. It also represents -0.4% decline (-1.1 billion vehicle miles) compared with January 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECumulative Travel for 2021 changed by -11.7% (-56.7 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 428.7 billion vehicle miles of travel.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-T_Ho1EGs15Y\/YIBRSo5-xwI\/AAAAAAAA5As\/Xc_tXH6DprIuP3dKL3mpres40TuLD1K5gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1003\/VMFeb2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Miles\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-T_Ho1EGs15Y\/YIBRSo5-xwI\/AAAAAAAA5As\/Xc_tXH6DprIuP3dKL3mpres40TuLD1K5gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/VMFeb2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMiles driven declined during the great recession, and the rolling 12 months stayed below the previous peak for a record 85 months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMiles driven declined sharply in March, and really collapsed in April.\u0026nbsp; After partially recovering fairly quickly, miles driven have been mostly flat for the last 6+ months."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8681807176229727718\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8681807176229727718","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8681807176229727718"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8681807176229727718"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/dot-vehicle-miles-driven-decreased-106.html","title":"DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 10.6% year-over-year in February"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-T_Ho1EGs15Y\/YIBRSo5-xwI\/AAAAAAAA5As\/Xc_tXH6DprIuP3dKL3mpres40TuLD1K5gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/VMFeb2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6482328124832881928"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-21T10:37:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-21T10:37:22.167-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AIA: \"Demand for Architecture design services continues to rapidly escalate\" in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the AIA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aia.org\/press-releases\/6393416-demand-for-design-services-continues-to-ra\"\u003EDemand for design services continues to rapidly escalate\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EStrengthening to a score not seen since pre-Great Recession, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) logged its second positive mark since the beginning of the pandemic, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAIA’s ABI score for March rose to 55.6 compared to 53.3 in February\u003C\/b\u003E (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). Scores for both new projects inquiries and new design contracts strengthened to 66.9 and 55.7 respectively.  March also marked the first time in three years all building sectors and regions posted positive scores.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“As business activity at architecture firms moves sharply toward recovery, it is very encouraging to simultaneously see such positive indicators of future project work increasing in the pipeline,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “The activity architecture firms are seeing is a positive bellwether not only for the construction outlook, but also for the larger economy.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Regional averages: Midwest (56.5); South (55.8); West (52.8); Northeast (50.8)\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• Sector index breakdown: commercial\/industrial (57.0); mixed practice (54.9); institutional (54.4); multi-family residential (52.6)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-jG0g5mhydtM\/YIA4SPAIxOI\/AAAAAAAA5Ak\/a7Ao7SaTfoQJRIDDqLWAhSfyhPkDzEIgwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1000\/ABIMar2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"AIA Architecture Billing Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-jG0g5mhydtM\/YIA4SPAIxOI\/AAAAAAAA5Ak\/a7Ao7SaTfoQJRIDDqLWAhSfyhPkDzEIgwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ABIMar2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 55.6 in March, up from 53.3 in February.  Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis index had been below 50 for eleven consecutive months, but has been solidly positive for the last two months.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe eleven months of decline represented a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 (This usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months), however we might see a pickup in CRE investment towards the end of the 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6482328124832881928\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6482328124832881928","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6482328124832881928"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6482328124832881928"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/aia-demand-for-architecture-design.html","title":"AIA: \"Demand for Architecture design services continues to rapidly escalate\" in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-jG0g5mhydtM\/YIA4SPAIxOI\/AAAAAAAA5Ak\/a7Ao7SaTfoQJRIDDqLWAhSfyhPkDzEIgwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ABIMar2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7495793714317989312"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-21T07:00:00.010-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-21T07:00:00.871-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications increased 8.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 16, 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E... The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week and was 23 percent lower than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E57 percent higher than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels in around two months, prompting a small resurgence in  refinance activity after six weeks of declines. Borrowers acted on the decrease in rates for most loan  types, with both conventional and government refinance applications showing gains,” said Joel Kan,  MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The spring housing market also  saw a boost from lower rates, with purchase applications – driven by a jump in conventional applications  – increasing over 5 percent. MBA expects the purchase market to remain strong, with the recovering job  market and supportive demographics fueling housing demand in the months ahead.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EAdded Kan, “The average loan size for purchase applications increased after a few weeks of declines, as  fewer homes available for sale make for a competitive buying market that is accelerating home-price  growth.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances  ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.20 percent from 3.27 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-5bWGh2CrMY4\/YH9NCbnZi0I\/AAAAAAAA5AM\/5RPecsFtJCEKmdhPy47AdL4rWxo7ucIYACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1085\/MBARefiApr2212021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-5bWGh2CrMY4\/YH9NCbnZi0I\/AAAAAAAA5AM\/5RPecsFtJCEKmdhPy47AdL4rWxo7ucIYACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBARefiApr2212021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith low rates, the index remains elevated, but below recent levels since mortgage rates have moved up from the record lows.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-b99lZlQNYVc\/YH9NFo2j-SI\/AAAAAAAA5AQ\/y_JmPOTHVIQzEyUohi2BBb0BE0BzhHNnQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1085\/MBAApr212021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-b99lZlQNYVc\/YH9NFo2j-SI\/AAAAAAAA5AQ\/y_JmPOTHVIQzEyUohi2BBb0BE0BzhHNnQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBAApr212021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is up 57% year-over-year unadjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Until the 2nd half of May, the MBA index will be up sharply year-over-year since purchase activity collapsed in late March 2020 in the early weeks of the pandemic.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7495793714317989312\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7495793714317989312","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7495793714317989312"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7495793714317989312"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/mba-mortgage-applications-increase-in.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-5bWGh2CrMY4\/YH9NCbnZi0I\/AAAAAAAA5AM\/5RPecsFtJCEKmdhPy47AdL4rWxo7ucIYACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBARefiApr2212021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3820345954550992009"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-20T19:38:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-20T19:38:52.034-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"April 20th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ENote:\u003C\/b\u003E I'm looking forward to not posting this daily!  I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once \u003Cb\u003Eall three of these criteria\u003C\/b\u003E are met:\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003E213.4 million doses have been administered\u003C\/a\u003E.  33.3% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 51.1% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (\u003Cb\u003E131.9 million people over 18 have had at least one dose\u003C\/b\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidactnow.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Act Now\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAlmost \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths\"\u003E13,000 US deaths\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;were reported so far in April due to COVID.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-thgcTsSGvRs\/YH9lxEkYhoI\/AAAAAAAA5Ac\/sT_kOgpGrBEtIbfMwRLMnNRmSt2axoVKgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1446\/COVIDApr202021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-thgcTsSGvRs\/YH9lxEkYhoI\/AAAAAAAA5Ac\/sT_kOgpGrBEtIbfMwRLMnNRmSt2axoVKgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDApr202021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 7-day average is 66,687, down from 68,602 yesterday, and close to the summer surge peak of 67,337 on July 23, 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6PuXTriJXSk\/YH8yqSClOvI\/AAAAAAAA5AE\/mlR2SUus8CEAmtK_wG307BYyhaLu4KNSQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1435\/COVIDHospitalApr202021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Hospitalized\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-6PuXTriJXSk\/YH8yqSClOvI\/AAAAAAAA5AE\/mlR2SUus8CEAmtK_wG307BYyhaLu4KNSQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDHospitalApr202021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#hospitalizations\"\u003Edata is also from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, \u003Cb\u003Ethe area in grey will probably increase\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe current 7-day average is 38,185, up from 36,118, reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3820345954550992009\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3820345954550992009","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3820345954550992009"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3820345954550992009"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/april-20th-covid-19-vaccinations-new.html","title":"April 20th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-thgcTsSGvRs\/YH9lxEkYhoI\/AAAAAAAA5Ac\/sT_kOgpGrBEtIbfMwRLMnNRmSt2axoVKgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDApr202021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5362211800733044485"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-20T18:48:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-20T18:48:35.408-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Indiana Real Estate in March: Sales Down 3% YoY, Inventory Down 58% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S.  I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor for the entire state Indiana:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClosed sales in March 2021 were 7,181, down 3.0% from 7,401 in March 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EActive Listings in March 2021 were 5,898, down 57.6% from 13,916 in March 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonths of Supply was 0.7 Months in March 2021, compared to 1.8 Months in March 2020."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5362211800733044485\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5362211800733044485","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5362211800733044485"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5362211800733044485"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/indiana-real-estate-in-march-sales-down.html","title":"Indiana Real Estate in March: Sales Down 3% YoY, Inventory Down 58% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8724644421088513741"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-20T17:57:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-20T17:57:24.295-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Alabama Real Estate in March: Sales Up 23% YoY, Inventory Down 46% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S.  I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor the entire state of Alabama:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClosed sales in March 2021 were 7,024, up 23.4% from 5,690 in March 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EActive Listings in March 2021 were 9,721, down 46.4% from 18,122 in March 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonths of Supply was 1.4 Months in March 2021, compared to 3.2 Months in March 2020."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8724644421088513741\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8724644421088513741","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8724644421088513741"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8724644421088513741"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/alabama-real-estate-in-march-sales-up.html","title":"Alabama Real Estate in March: Sales Up 23% YoY, Inventory Down 46% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1487002797292920260"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-20T12:52:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-20T12:52:15.286-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The Upward Slope of Real House Prices"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Many years ago, I wrote: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2011\/05\/upward-slope-of-real-house-prices.html\"\u003EThe upward slope of Real House Prices\u003C\/a\u003E.  I argued that real house prices (adjusted for inflation) had typically increased about 1.0% to 1.5% per year (much higher than Professor Shiller's estimate of 0.2%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn 2012, housing economist Tom Lawler dug through some data and calculated that real prices increased 0.83% per year (See: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/12\/lawler-on-upward-trend-in-real-house.html\"\u003ELawler: On the upward trend in Real House Prices\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn my previous posts, I tracked the bottom of real prices over time.   This graph shows the peaks over time (the trend lines are 0.83% and 1.1%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-LAVJrphCuuk\/YH8CO3vTzJI\/AAAAAAAA4_8\/RhlPpnGXM40IxeeIhUaXWuP2FAN6-I7HQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1021\/UpwardSlopeJan2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Upward Slope of Real House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-LAVJrphCuuk\/YH8CO3vTzJI\/AAAAAAAA4_8\/RhlPpnGXM40IxeeIhUaXWuP2FAN6-I7HQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/UpwardSlopeJan2021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows there have been four surges in real prices since the early '70s.   One in the late '70s, one in the late '80s, the housing bubble, and the current surge in prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  It is important to note that nationally nominal house prices did not decline following the surges in the '70s and '80s.\u0026nbsp; However, there were regional declines.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E Since homeowners are concerned about nominal prices (not real prices), I wasn't concerned in December 2018, when Professor Shiller wrote in the NY Times: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/12\/07\/business\/housing-boom-how-long-can-it-last.html\"\u003EThe Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere were \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2018\/12\/a-comment-on-professor-shillers-housing.html\"\u003Emy comments on Shiller's article in 2018\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cblockquote\u003EDuring the housing bubble, the difference between a slight upward slope in real prices (0.2% per year according to Shiller's index) and a slightly larger increase in real prices using other indexes (probably between 1% and 1.5% per year) didn't make any difference; there was obviously a huge bubble in house prices.  But when comparing price \"booms\" over time, there is a huge difference.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EIf we use 1.5% per year for real price increases, the current \"boom\" in prices would be the fourth largest since the 1970s (and only about half the size of the late '70s and late '80s price boom), and if we use a 1.0% real increase, the current \"boom\" is on the same order as the late '70s and '80s price booms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003ENo big deal, and definitely not a \"gigantic\" boom in house prices.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ESince I wrote that post in 2018, house prices have increased 16% nationally (from November 2018 to January 2021) according to the Case-Shiller index.  Prices in Phoenix are up 25%, and in Seattle and San Diego, up about 20% since that Shiller article was written.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAnd prices have increased quickly over the last few months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENow, I'd argue house prices are too high based on historical real prices.   Prices are also too high based on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/03\/real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent.html\"\u003Eprice-to-rent measures\u003C\/a\u003E, and \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/01\/house-prices-and-median-household-income.html\"\u003Eprice\u003C\/a\u003E-to-\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/10\/house-prices-to-national-average-wage.html\"\u003Eincome\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI wouldn't call this a \"bubble\" because of the lack of both speculation and loose lending (see: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/is-there-new-housing-bubble.html\"\u003EIs there a New Housing Bubble?\u003C\/a\u003E).\u0026nbsp; But I am becoming concerned about fundamentals:\u003Cblockquote\u003EMaybe prices are too high based on fundamentals (due to extremely low supply and record low mortgage rates), but there is very little evidence of speculation (not like the loose lending of the housing bubble).\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe lack of wild speculation doesn't mean house prices can't decline, but it means that we won't see cascading declines in prices like what happened when the housing bubble burst.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EWe might see some price declines, especially in some 2nd home areas that saw a surge in demand at the onset of the pandemic, but the recent buyers are all well qualified, and some price declines will not lead to forced selling.   So there is no threat to the financial system with widespread defaults.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E \u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1487002797292920260\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1487002797292920260","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1487002797292920260"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1487002797292920260"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/the-upward-slope-of-real-house-prices.html","title":"The Upward Slope of Real House Prices"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-LAVJrphCuuk\/YH8CO3vTzJI\/AAAAAAAA4_8\/RhlPpnGXM40IxeeIhUaXWuP2FAN6-I7HQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/UpwardSlopeJan2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2179048717865620199"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-20T10:38:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-20T10:38:33.547-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"CoreLogic: Mortgage Application Fraud Risk Index increased in Q1"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"A few excerpts from CoreLogic: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.corelogic.com\/insights\/mortgage-fraud-trends-report.aspx\"\u003EQ1 2021 Mortgage Fraud Brief\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe CoreLogic® National Mortgage Application Fraud Risk Index (Index) increased by 11.9% for the first quarter of 2021—from 110 to 122. The year-over-year trend is up 7.7% from Q1 2020 (at 113).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELast quarter we noted an uptick in \u003Cb\u003Eincome reasonability alerts\u003C\/b\u003E for both purchases and refinances and that trend continued in Q1. \u003Cb\u003EValuation alerts\u003C\/b\u003E increased for all transactions, due to rapid home price increases as demand exceeds supply. We observed a slight increase in \u003Cb\u003Eoccupancy alerts\u003C\/b\u003E for refinances, along with a decrease in flipping alerts for purchases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWe expect fraud risk to continue to rise in 2021, fueled by an insufficient supply of affordable housing and rising interest rates that will change the purchase\/refinance mix. New guidelines on GSE financing for investment and second homes, including a 7% cap and stricter underwriting guidelines have the potential to heighten occupancy misrep motivations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ECR Note: This is still low, but something to watch."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2179048717865620199\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2179048717865620199","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2179048717865620199"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2179048717865620199"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/corelogic-mortgage-application-fraud.html","title":"CoreLogic: Mortgage Application Fraud Risk Index increased in Q1"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8934973856002038622"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-20T08:47:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-20T08:47:18.693-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through March 2021. Note: This is an update to a post from a few years ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUnfortunately this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock \/ tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust\/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate, with the lowest rate for college graduates at 3.7% in March, and highest for those without a high school degree at 8.2% in March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAll four groups were generally trending down prior to the pandemic.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;And all are trending down now.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tgt6NPA9npM\/YH7J1oAYHMI\/AAAAAAAA4_s\/oBS2bEiGoZIKRBvi8sZs8iRMGanwPxrTgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1007\/UnemployEdMar2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Unemployment by Level of Education\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tgt6NPA9npM\/YH7J1oAYHMI\/AAAAAAAA4_s\/oBS2bEiGoZIKRBvi8sZs8iRMGanwPxrTgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/UnemployEdMar2021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered \"employed\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis brings up an interesting question: What is the composition of the labor force by educational attainment, and how has that been changing over time?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is some data on the U.S. labor force by educational attainment since 1992.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-qp9MSOr3JuY\/YH7MeGyminI\/AAAAAAAA4_0\/awhB5BJEKGYBlDDDDicHHPa_vlB2I_UpgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1059\/EdAttainMar2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Labor Force by Education\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-qp9MSOr3JuY\/YH7MeGyminI\/AAAAAAAA4_0\/awhB5BJEKGYBlDDDDicHHPa_vlB2I_UpgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EdAttainMar2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ECurrently, almost 61 million people in the U.S. labor force have a Bachelor's degree or higher. \u0026nbsp;This is almost 44% of the labor force, up from 26.2% in 1992.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is the only category trending up. \u0026nbsp;\"Some college\" has been steady (and trending down lately), and both \"high school\" and \"less than high school\" have been trending down.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBased on current trends, probably more than half the labor force will have at least a bachelor's degree by the end of this decade (2020s).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome thoughts: Since workers with bachelor's degrees typically have a lower unemployment rate, rising educational attainment is probably a factor in pushing down the overall unemployment rate over time.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlso, I'd guess more education would mean less labor turnover, and that education is a factor in lower weekly claims (prior to the pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA more educated labor force is a positive for the future."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8934973856002038622\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8934973856002038622","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8934973856002038622"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8934973856002038622"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/trends-in-educational-attainment-in-us.html","title":"Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tgt6NPA9npM\/YH7J1oAYHMI\/AAAAAAAA4_s\/oBS2bEiGoZIKRBvi8sZs8iRMGanwPxrTgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/UnemployEdMar2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7433144768762044025"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-19T17:15:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-19T17:15:09.548-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"April 19th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Spring Wave May Have Peaked"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ENote:\u003C\/b\u003E I'm looking forward to not posting this daily!  I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once \u003Cb\u003Eall three of these criteria\u003C\/b\u003E are met:\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003E211.6 million doses have been administered\u003C\/a\u003E.  33.0% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 50.7% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (\u003Cb\u003E131.0 million people over 18 have had at least one dose\u003C\/b\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidactnow.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Act Now\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EOver \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths\"\u003E12,000 US deaths\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;were reported so far in April due to COVID.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Nd-tbESTf5w\/YH3x9FpS1cI\/AAAAAAAA4_c\/DvQ2voWjVL8K4UvOAl8NYbOx2NmMGalmwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1449\/COVIDApr192021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Nd-tbESTf5w\/YH3x9FpS1cI\/AAAAAAAA4_c\/DvQ2voWjVL8K4UvOAl8NYbOx2NmMGalmwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDApr192021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 7-day average is 66,747, down from 67,964 yesterday, and close to the summer surge peak of 67,337 on July 23, 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xiQP3SXzPFg\/YH3yknVNESI\/AAAAAAAA4_k\/RBQukzNo5lg1Rkm26zWIMXd0rLRGJZF5gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1431\/COVIDHospitalApr192021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Hospitalized\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xiQP3SXzPFg\/YH3yknVNESI\/AAAAAAAA4_k\/RBQukzNo5lg1Rkm26zWIMXd0rLRGJZF5gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDHospitalApr192021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#hospitalizations\"\u003Edata is also from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, \u003Cb\u003Ethe area in grey will probably increase\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe current 7-day average is 36,118, down from 36,976, reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7433144768762044025\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7433144768762044025","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7433144768762044025"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7433144768762044025"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/april-19th-covid-19-vaccinations-new.html","title":"April 19th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Spring Wave May Have Peaked"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Nd-tbESTf5w\/YH3x9FpS1cI\/AAAAAAAA4_c\/DvQ2voWjVL8K4UvOAl8NYbOx2NmMGalmwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDApr192021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8584487646342524719"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-19T16:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-19T16:00:00.764-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA Survey: \"Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 4.50%\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: This is as of April 11th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EShare of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 4.50%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 16 basis points from 4.66% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 4.50% as of April 11, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate,\u003Cb\u003E 2.3 million homeowners are in forbearance plans\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E“\u003Cb\u003EThe share of loans in forbearance decreased for the seventh straight week\u003C\/b\u003E and has now dropped 40  basis points in the last two weeks. The forbearance share decreased for all three investor categories, with the rate for portfolio and PLS loans decreasing by 31 basis points this past week – the largest drop  across investor categories,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Forbearance exits increased for portfolio and PLS loans but decreased for GSE and Ginnie Mae loans.  More than 36 percent of borrowers in forbearance extensions have now exceeded the 12-month mark.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EFratantoni added, “Economic data on home construction and consumer spending in March show a  strong housing market and a quickened pace of economic activity. Combined with the homeowner  assistance and stimulus payments that many households are receiving, we expect that the forbearance  numbers will continue to decline in the months ahead as more individuals regain employment.  Homeowners who are still facing hardships and need to extend their forbearance term should contact  their servicers.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-PwJKWxTBnK8\/YH3ZLE6HdrI\/AAAAAAAA4_U\/p3OUCh9CQ-Men7w7Z3B-bYdDB1jo2mUJwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1226\/MBAForbearApr192021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"MBA Forbearance Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-PwJKWxTBnK8\/YH3ZLE6HdrI\/AAAAAAAA4_U\/p3OUCh9CQ-Men7w7Z3B-bYdDB1jo2mUJwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBAForbearApr192021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.\u0026nbsp; Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has trended down since then.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe MBA notes: \"Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained flat relative to the prior week at 0.05%.\""},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8584487646342524719\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8584487646342524719","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8584487646342524719"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8584487646342524719"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in_01331732052.html","title":"MBA Survey: \"Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 4.50%\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-PwJKWxTBnK8\/YH3ZLE6HdrI\/AAAAAAAA4_U\/p3OUCh9CQ-Men7w7Z3B-bYdDB1jo2mUJwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBAForbearApr192021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8463833706775211850"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-19T13:30:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-19T13:30:28.726-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Recession Measures and NBER"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Calling the beginning or end of a recession usually takes time. \u0026nbsp; However, the economic decline in March 2020 was so severe that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) quickly\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/cycles\/june2020.html\"\u003Ecalled the end of the expansion in February\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of U.S. business cycles dating back to 1854. The previous record was held by the business expansion that lasted for 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe usual definition of a recession involves a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months. However, in deciding whether to identify a recession, the committee weighs the depth of the contraction, its duration, and whether economic activity declined broadly across the economy (the diffusion of the downturn). The committee recognizes that the pandemic and the public health response have resulted in a downturn with different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions. Nonetheless, it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe NBER will probably wait some time before calling the end of the recession, this process can take from 18 months to two years or longer.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;It is likely the NBER will date the beginning of the expansion in Q2 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt will take some time for all major indicators to be above their previous high after the pandemic recession because of the severe contraction as the graphs below show.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGDP is the key measure, as the NBER committee notes in their \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/wwwdev.nber.org\/cycles\/recessions.html\"\u003Ebusiness cycle dating procedure\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe committee views real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZqIhGXNGYn8\/YH26A06sJNI\/AAAAAAAA4-0\/WwhSCFiNFdgViYwS_xbA9fNbzr4g6Mq5ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1012\/RMGDPQ42020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Recession Measure, GDP\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZqIhGXNGYn8\/YH26A06sJNI\/AAAAAAAA4-0\/WwhSCFiNFdgViYwS_xbA9fNbzr4g6Mq5ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/RMGDPQ42020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is for real GDP through Q4 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is the key measure, and the NBER will probably use GDP and GDI to determine the trough of the recession (likely in April and in Q2 2020).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs of Q4, real GDP was 2.5% below the pre-recession peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMost forecasters expect GDP to increase strongly in Q1 2021, but even with a 7% annualized increase, real GDP will be down about 0.8% from Q4 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EReal GDP will likely be above Q4 2019 levels in Q2 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-eZriSt4Zj50\/YH26Flh55-I\/AAAAAAAA4-8\/XMsTwz5_OQolqcpeCgrYN3GLgIJtGPrIgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1010\/RMIPMar2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Recession Measure Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-eZriSt4Zj50\/YH26Flh55-I\/AAAAAAAA4-8\/XMsTwz5_OQolqcpeCgrYN3GLgIJtGPrIgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/RMIPMar2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph is for monthly industrial production based on data from the Federal Reserve through Mar 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIndustrial production is off over 4.5% from the pre-recession peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that industrial production was weak prior to the onset of the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIndustrial production usually takes a long time to recover after a significant decline.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bROCneWvlOg\/YH26Dkex0cI\/AAAAAAAA4-4\/3-EROMn0xJU3o10DccA-VOuP3N3-MCo9gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1006\/RMEmploymentMar2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Recession Measure Employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bROCneWvlOg\/YH26Dkex0cI\/AAAAAAAA4-4\/3-EROMn0xJU3o10DccA-VOuP3N3-MCo9gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/RMEmploymentMar2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe third graph is for employment through March 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHistorically employment was a coincident indicator for the end of recessions, but that hasn't been true for the previous three recessions (1990-1991, 2001, 2007-2009).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEmployment is currently off about 5.5% from the pre-recession peak (dashed line).\u0026nbsp; This is a significant improvement from off 14.6% in April 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is still a long way to go for employment to recover to pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-H8Rop_t0xXM\/YH26IgDlTNI\/AAAAAAAA4_A\/azfErd2ZEnIqowxGndXDJ2iKBI3aXgfqACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1010\/RMRealPIFeb2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Recession Measure Income\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-H8Rop_t0xXM\/YH26IgDlTNI\/AAAAAAAA4_A\/azfErd2ZEnIqowxGndXDJ2iKBI3aXgfqACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/RMRealPIFeb2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd the last graph is for real personal income excluding transfer payments through Feb 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EReal personal income less transfer payments was still off 2.5% in February.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese graphs are useful in trying to identify peaks and troughs in economic activity.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEconomic activity bottomed in Q2 (in April)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8463833706775211850\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8463833706775211850","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8463833706775211850"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8463833706775211850"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/recession-measures-and-nber.html","title":"Recession Measures and NBER"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZqIhGXNGYn8\/YH26A06sJNI\/AAAAAAAA4-0\/WwhSCFiNFdgViYwS_xbA9fNbzr4g6Mq5ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/RMGDPQ42020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1100153129019538229"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-19T10:42:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-19T10:42:07.769-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Inventory April 19th Update: A Slight Increase from Record Low"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"One of the key questions for 2021 is: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/question-9-for-2021-will-inventory.html\"\u003EWill inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETracking inventory will be very important this year\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-03fkChVsbA8\/YH2RmLeBb6I\/AAAAAAAA4-s\/d3u2Laz02s4ES-MqsoTMOFb5Xls3_jEUwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1202\/AltosApr192021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Lumcber Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-03fkChVsbA8\/YH2RmLeBb6I\/AAAAAAAA4-s\/d3u2Laz02s4ES-MqsoTMOFb5Xls3_jEUwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/AltosApr192021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs of April 16th, inventory was at 312 thousand (7 day average), compared to 749 thousand the same week a year ago.\u0026nbsp; That is a decline of 58%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EA week ago, inventory was at 307 thousand, and was down 59% YoY.\u0026nbsp; Seasonally, \u003Cb\u003Einventory might have bottomed\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1100153129019538229\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1100153129019538229","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1100153129019538229"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1100153129019538229"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/housing-inventory-april-19th-update.html","title":"Housing Inventory April 19th Update: A Slight Increase from Record Low"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-03fkChVsbA8\/YH2RmLeBb6I\/AAAAAAAA4-s\/d3u2Laz02s4ES-MqsoTMOFb5Xls3_jEUwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/AltosApr192021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8810359779611710988"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-19T08:11:00.052-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-19T08:33:05.958-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIMPORTANT: Be safe now - if all goes well, we could all be vaccinated by June.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe TSA is providing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.tsa.gov\/coronavirus\/passenger-throughput\"\u003Edaily travel numbers\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-VDWY-uxfZMw\/YH14L4GlLzI\/AAAAAAAA4-k\/Jkr3Wrt1D_MCt9fz9JgqYsGDCFofHsw2wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1024\/TSAApril182021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"TSA Traveler Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-VDWY-uxfZMw\/YH14L4GlLzI\/AAAAAAAA4-k\/Jkr3Wrt1D_MCt9fz9JgqYsGDCFofHsw2wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TSAApril182021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of April 18th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe seven day average is down 42.1% from the same day in 2019 (57.9% of last year).\u0026nbsp; (Dashed line)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere was a slow increase from the bottom, with ups and downs due to the holidays - and TSA data has picked up in 2021, but down over the last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIMPORTANT: OpenTable notes: \"we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year.\"  Thanks!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-PZ0CPejwnbo\/YHzIfH-N8tI\/AAAAAAAA4-c\/qKdzfCQ1T5cpqrZbDvi6yn9gDaz4MmkGwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1076\/DinersApr182021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Move Box Office\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-PZ0CPejwnbo\/YHzIfH-N8tI\/AAAAAAAA4-c\/qKdzfCQ1T5cpqrZbDvi6yn9gDaz4MmkGwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/DinersApr182021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is updated through April 17, 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is \"a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that this data is for \"\u003Cb\u003Eonly the restaurants that have chosen to reopen\u003C\/b\u003E in a given market\".  \u003Cb\u003ESince some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases.\u0026nbsp; Dining was picking up again, but turned down last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8CxbTFBQ0C0\/YHzEYP_HDfI\/AAAAAAAA498\/j3vKxHfaFf8aIY5MwPx2Xm_StnV-ODfBQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s882\/MovieApr182021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Move Box Office\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8CxbTFBQ0C0\/YHzEYP_HDfI\/AAAAAAAA498\/j3vKxHfaFf8aIY5MwPx2Xm_StnV-ODfBQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MovieApr182021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBlue is 2020 and Red is 2021.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe data is from BoxOfficeMojo through Apr 15th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMovie ticket sales were at $33 million last week,\u0026nbsp; down about 75% from the median for the week.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HHzB-xkaU-8\/YHhiSxu3K3I\/AAAAAAAA478\/L4mfYTKox9ER-CyUN46PhTcuySw8yUxmQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1036\/HotelApr152021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HHzB-xkaU-8\/YHhiSxu3K3I\/AAAAAAAA478\/L4mfYTKox9ER-CyUN46PhTcuySw8yUxmQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/HotelApr152021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the \u003Cb\u003Efour week average\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOccupancy is now above the horrible 2009 levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E   This data is through April 10th. Hotel occupancy is currently \u003Cb\u003Edown 15% compared to same week in 2019\u003C\/b\u003E). Note: Occupancy was up year-over-year, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  However, occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENotes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-v_8o9xYXUa4\/YHzFR8l-y5I\/AAAAAAAA4-E\/RIXaVx7gzvYOX6_TgxwBnj8UMspFso24ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s900\/GasolineApr182021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"gasoline Consumption\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-v_8o9xYXUa4\/YHzFR8l-y5I\/AAAAAAAA4-E\/RIXaVx7gzvYOX6_TgxwBnj8UMspFso24ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/GasolineApr182021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the \u003Cb\u003Esame week of 2019\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBlue is for 2020.\u0026nbsp; Red is for 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs of April 9th, gasoline supplied was off about 5.1% (about 94.9% of the same week in 2019).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EGasoline supplied was up year-over-year, since at one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY in 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.apple.com\/covid19\/mobility\"\u003EApple mobility\u003C\/a\u003E. From Apple: \"This data is generated by counting \u003Cb\u003Ethe number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions\u003C\/b\u003E in select countries\/regions, sub-regions, and cities.\"  This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/mei.aspx\"\u003EMobility and Engagement Index\u003C\/a\u003E.  However the index is set \"relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February\", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fuFmm4yt-Ec\/YHzHTWfeTwI\/AAAAAAAA4-U\/I3Uv9tZGA1QNwLfQsaWcYX2yPxdQZH6jQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1078\/TransitAppleApr182021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Apple Mobility Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fuFmm4yt-Ec\/YHzHTWfeTwI\/AAAAAAAA4-U\/I3Uv9tZGA1QNwLfQsaWcYX2yPxdQZH6jQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TransitAppleApr182021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data is through April 17th for the United States and several selected cities.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020.   This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted.   People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 66% of the January 2020 level.  It is at 62% in Chicago, and 61% in Houston (the Houston dip was a weather related decline) - and moving up recently.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- New York City Subway Usage -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is some interesting data on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ENew York subway usage\u003C\/a\u003E (HT BR).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-YghF3ncZdsI\/YHzFw-q5XTI\/AAAAAAAA4-M\/zERriPm8Vzc2oeUIDbNM5kNfVoBU06RFQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s619\/NYCTurnstileApr182021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New York City Subway Usage\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-YghF3ncZdsI\/YHzFw-q5XTI\/AAAAAAAA4-M\/zERriPm8Vzc2oeUIDbNM5kNfVoBU06RFQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/NYCTurnstileApr182021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ETodd W Schneider\u003C\/a\u003E.  This is weekly data since 2015.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMost weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there just above 10 million subway turnstile entries per week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is through Friday, April 16th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESchneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EHe notes: \"Data updates weekly from the MTA’s \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/web.mta.info\/developers\/turnstile.html\"\u003Epublic turnstile data\u003C\/a\u003E, usually on Saturday mornings\".\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8810359779611710988\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8810359779611710988","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8810359779611710988"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8810359779611710988"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for_19.html","title":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-VDWY-uxfZMw\/YH14L4GlLzI\/AAAAAAAA4-k\/Jkr3Wrt1D_MCt9fz9JgqYsGDCFofHsw2wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/TSAApril182021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7562564421858887209"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-18T19:38:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-18T19:38:34.258-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/schedule-for-week-of-april-18-2021.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of April 18, 2021\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• No major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 futures are down 10 and DOW futures are down 75 (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOil prices were up over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $62.88\tper barrel and Brent at $66.49 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI were below zero, and Brent was at $17 - so \u003Cb\u003EWTI oil prices are UP sharply year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E (oil prices collapsed at the beginning of the pandemic). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $2.85 per gallon.  A year ago prices were at $1.77 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.08 per gallon year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7562564421858887209\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7562564421858887209","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7562564421858887209"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7562564421858887209"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/sunday-night-futures_18.html","title":"Sunday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9171411901291441418"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-18T16:26:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-18T16:26:07.681-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"April 18th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Over Half of People Over 18 Have Had  at Least One Dose"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ENote:\u003C\/b\u003E I'm looking forward to not posting this daily!  I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once \u003Cb\u003Eall three of these criteria\u003C\/b\u003E are met:\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003E209.4 million doses have been administered\u003C\/a\u003E.  32.5% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 50.4% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (\u003Cb\u003E130.0 million people over 18 have had at least one dose\u003C\/b\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidactnow.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Act Now\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAlmost \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths\"\u003E12,000 US deaths\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;were reported so far in April due to COVID.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-CCSdhi4YkX8\/YHyC1O2WnFI\/AAAAAAAA49s\/PygjfuymelMIgtdDuHPaF0_sC2O_FMangCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1447\/COVIDApr182021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-CCSdhi4YkX8\/YHyC1O2WnFI\/AAAAAAAA49s\/PygjfuymelMIgtdDuHPaF0_sC2O_FMangCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDApr182021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 7-day average is 67,442, down from 68,509 yesterday, but above the summer surge peak of 67,337 on July 23, 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_-0LShS4oA0\/YHyVpJub_gI\/AAAAAAAA490\/E1oRS6bEC0wejyJk6dOoD6On6nxNt68IQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1434\/COVIDHospitalApr182021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Hospitalized\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_-0LShS4oA0\/YHyVpJub_gI\/AAAAAAAA490\/E1oRS6bEC0wejyJk6dOoD6On6nxNt68IQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDHospitalApr182021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#hospitalizations\"\u003Edata is also from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, \u003Cb\u003Ethe area in grey will probably increase\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe current 7-day average is 36,976, down from 37,339 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9171411901291441418\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9171411901291441418","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9171411901291441418"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9171411901291441418"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/april-18th-covid-19-vaccinations-new.html","title":"April 18th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Over Half of People Over 18 Have Had  at Least One Dose"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-CCSdhi4YkX8\/YHyC1O2WnFI\/AAAAAAAA49s\/PygjfuymelMIgtdDuHPaF0_sC2O_FMangCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDApr182021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3232216633120775406"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-18T13:36:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-18T13:36:15.125-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for\u0026nbsp; 11 years.\u0026nbsp; And he has graciously allowed me to share his predictions with the readers of this blog. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the \"consensus\", Lawler has been closer.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor example, last month Lawler estimated the NAR would report sales of 6.29 million SAAR, the consensus was 6.51 million SAAR, and the NAR reported 6.22 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for March at 10:00 AM, Thursday, April 22nd.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is for 6.17 million SAAR in March, down from 6.22 million in Febuary.  \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html\"\u003ETom Lawler estimates\u003C\/a\u003E the NAR will report sales of 6.02 million SAAR.  \u003Cb\u003EBased on Lawler's estimate, I expect existing home sales to be below the consensus in March.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003ENOTE: There have been times when Lawler \"missed\", but then he pointed out an apparent error in the NAR data - and the subsequent revision corrected that error. \u0026nbsp;As an example, see:  \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/06\/lawler-on-nar-curious-case-of-existing.html\"\u003EThe “Curious Case” of Existing Home Sales in the South in April\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOver the last 11 years, the consensus average miss was 147 thousand, and \u0026nbsp;Lawler's average miss was 73 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 620px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"4\"\u003EExisting Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report\u003Cbr \/\u003Emillions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EMonth\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EConsensus\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ELawler\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENAR reported\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.83\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.66\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.30\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.30\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.37\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.66\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.95\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.83\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.30\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.50\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.53\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.50\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.46\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.43\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.85\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.61\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.68\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.90\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.13\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.28\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.36\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.15\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.00\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.88\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.00\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.08\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.15\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.05\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.75\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.80\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.81\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.90\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.71\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.77\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.92\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.69\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.67\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.75\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.92\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.03\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.93\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.83\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.91\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.80\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.86\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.97\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.08\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.40\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.42\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-11\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.60\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.64\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.61\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-12\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd 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align=\"center\"\u003E5.08\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.27\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.27\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.33\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.40\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.44\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.45\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.64\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.55\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.53\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.48\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.62\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.57\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.52\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.41\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.39\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.44\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.49\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.33\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.35\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.55\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.47\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.44\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.47\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.60\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.54\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.60\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.61\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-16\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.54\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.55\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.49\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.55\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.60\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.69\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.55\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.41\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.48\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.61\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.74\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.71\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.67\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.56\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.57\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.55\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.65\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.62\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.58\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.59\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.52\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.57\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.38\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.44\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.48\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.39\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.35\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.30\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.38\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.39\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.30\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.60\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.48\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.52\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.77\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.81\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.75\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.66\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.57\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.65\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.48\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.38\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.42\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.44\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.54\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.28\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.51\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.60\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.60\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.48\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.46\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.56\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.47\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.43\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.45\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.35\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.38\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.43\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.40\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.34\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.36\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.36\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.34\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.30\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.15\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.31\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.22\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.23\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.32\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-18\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.24\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.97\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.99\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.05\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.92\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.94\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.08\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.46\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.51\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.30\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.40\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.36\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.31\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.29\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.40\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.34\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.34\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.25\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.27\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.39\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.40\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.42\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.38\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.42\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.49\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.45\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.36\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.38\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.49\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.36\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.46\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.45\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.43\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.35\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.43\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.40\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.54\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.45\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.42\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.46\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.50\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.58\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.77\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.30\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.25\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.27\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.30\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.33\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.38\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.80\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.91\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.86\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.65\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.72\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.39\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.85\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.86\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.00\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.92\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.00\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.25\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.38\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.54\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.45\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.63\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.85\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.70\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.50\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.69\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.55\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.62\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.76\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.60\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.48\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.69\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.51\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.29\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.22\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E   \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.02\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003ENA\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003ENAR initially reported before revisions.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3232216633120775406\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3232216633120775406","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3232216633120775406"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3232216633120775406"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/existing-home-sales-lawler-vs-consensus.html","title":"Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7700194422819580707"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-17T19:29:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-17T19:29:07.058-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"April 17th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ENote:\u003C\/b\u003E I'm looking forward to not posting this daily!  I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once \u003Cb\u003Eall three of these criteria\u003C\/b\u003E are met:\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003E205.9 million doses have been administered\u003C\/a\u003E.  31.8% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 49.7% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (\u003Cb\u003E128.3 million people over 18 have had at least one dose\u003C\/b\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidactnow.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Act Now\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EOver \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths\"\u003E11,000 US deaths\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;were reported so far in April due to COVID.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tkxwU5ITP-I\/YHtuZqIOrtI\/AAAAAAAA49c\/7IK-DDJx97kvYvp7q7tSF_qpuFFvn6LRgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1445\/COVIDApr172021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tkxwU5ITP-I\/YHtuZqIOrtI\/AAAAAAAA49c\/7IK-DDJx97kvYvp7q7tSF_qpuFFvn6LRgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDApr172021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 7-day average is 68509, down from 69182 yesterday, but above the summer surge peak of 67,337 on July 23, 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-98nV8wrkeTo\/YHtu32AbY-I\/AAAAAAAA49k\/0IWYUMNIYHk4gzO7TYYJQf5zZk-QuWVsgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1446\/COVIDHospitalApr172021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Hospitalized\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-98nV8wrkeTo\/YHtu32AbY-I\/AAAAAAAA49k\/0IWYUMNIYHk4gzO7TYYJQf5zZk-QuWVsgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDHospitalApr172021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#hospitalizations\"\u003Edata is also from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, \u003Cb\u003Ethe area in grey will probably increase\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe current 7-day average is 37,339, up from 37,246 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7700194422819580707\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7700194422819580707","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7700194422819580707"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7700194422819580707"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/april-17th-covid-19-vaccinations-new.html","title":"April 17th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tkxwU5ITP-I\/YHtuZqIOrtI\/AAAAAAAA49c\/7IK-DDJx97kvYvp7q7tSF_qpuFFvn6LRgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDApr172021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-732118299892898147"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-17T08:11:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-17T08:11:01.104-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of April 18, 2021"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key reports this week are March New and Existing Home Sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor manufacturing, the April Kansas City manufacturing survey will be released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, Apr 19th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENo major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, Apr 20th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENo major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, Apr 21st  -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDuring the day: The AIA's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, Apr 22nd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for a increase to 625 thousand from 576 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EChicago Fed National Activity Index\u003C\/b\u003E for March.  This is a composite index of other data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-5uXVTinqEyo\/YFijy4dndvI\/AAAAAAAA4nc\/ULjtllomwY4DRJisV6jCfycwipz2UAtygCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1081\/EHSFeb2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-5uXVTinqEyo\/YFijy4dndvI\/AAAAAAAA4nc\/ULjtllomwY4DRJisV6jCfycwipz2UAtygCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EHSFeb2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EExisting Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  The consensus is for 6.17 million SAAR, down from 6.22 million.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html\"\u003EHousing economist Tom Lawler expects\u003C\/a\u003E the NAR to report sales of 6.02 million SAAR for March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E11:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EKansas City Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for April.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, Apr 23rd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yWEj4oHAZQ4\/YFn1igLJ4qI\/AAAAAAAA4os\/y9pA6DNTu3MlVOo-WmPfmfyMcpzV1JEqgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1074\/NHSFeb2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yWEj4oHAZQ4\/YFn1igLJ4qI\/AAAAAAAA4os\/y9pA6DNTu3MlVOo-WmPfmfyMcpzV1JEqgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/NHSFeb2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003ENew Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for March from the Census Bureau. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is for 885 thousand SAAR, up from 775 thousand in February."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/732118299892898147\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=732118299892898147","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/732118299892898147"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/732118299892898147"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/schedule-for-week-of-april-18-2021.html","title":"Schedule for Week of April 18, 2021"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-5uXVTinqEyo\/YFijy4dndvI\/AAAAAAAA4nc\/ULjtllomwY4DRJisV6jCfycwipz2UAtygCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EHSFeb2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2478693533532239210"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-16T16:25:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-16T16:25:33.250-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From housing economist Tom Lawler:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBased on publicly-available local realtor\/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million in March\u003C\/b\u003E, down 3.2% from February’s preliminary pace but up 12.5% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELocal realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale last month was greater than the big decline in February.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOne moderately interesting thing to note is that most realtors that break out sales by type showed substantially larger YOY increases in condo sales than in SF detached sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFinally, local realtor\/MLS data suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 15.5% from last March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release March existing home sales on Thursday, April 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM ET.  The consensus is for 6.17 million SAAR."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2478693533532239210\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2478693533532239210","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2478693533532239210"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2478693533532239210"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html","title":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5830855140373672281"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-16T15:48:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-16T15:48:53.323-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"April 16th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Over 200 Million Doses Administered"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ENote:\u003C\/b\u003E I'm looking forward to not posting this daily!  I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once \u003Cb\u003Eall three of these criteria\u003C\/b\u003E are met:\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the CDC, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003E202.3 million doses have been administered\u003C\/a\u003E.  31.1% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 49.1% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (\u003Cb\u003E126.6 million people over 18 have had at least one dose\u003C\/b\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidactnow.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Act Now\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EOver \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths\"\u003E10,000 US deaths\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;were reported so far in April due to COVID.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-gXCXN-Kejgg\/YHno5kB1ZvI\/AAAAAAAA49M\/SIBzW71XyL42btd5PYANa3wcA_DN6GJUACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1454\/COVIDApr162021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-gXCXN-Kejgg\/YHno5kB1ZvI\/AAAAAAAA49M\/SIBzW71XyL42btd5PYANa3wcA_DN6GJUACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDApr162021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003Edata is from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 7-day average is 69,405, down from 69,577 yesterday, and above the summer surge peak of 67,337 on July 23, 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-smInhgZENzc\/YHnpWsAUcuI\/AAAAAAAA49U\/QfMjsycYSZgpEgMABHUag0xKT8IOUAeJQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1441\/COVIDHospitalApr162021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Hospitalized\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-smInhgZENzc\/YHnpWsAUcuI\/AAAAAAAA49U\/QfMjsycYSZgpEgMABHUag0xKT8IOUAeJQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDHospitalApr162021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#hospitalizations\"\u003Edata is also from the CDC\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, \u003Cb\u003Ethe area in grey will probably increase\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe current 7-day average is 37,246, up from 37,125 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5830855140373672281\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5830855140373672281","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5830855140373672281"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5830855140373672281"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/april-16th-covid-19-vaccinations-new.html","title":"April 16th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Over 200 Million Doses Administered"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-gXCXN-Kejgg\/YHno5kB1ZvI\/AAAAAAAA49M\/SIBzW71XyL42btd5PYANa3wcA_DN6GJUACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDApr162021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5064184104126748525"},"published":{"$t":"2021-04-16T12:41:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-04-16T12:41:12.732-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"California March Housing: Sales up 20% YoY, Active Listings down 51% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The CAR reported: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.car.org\/aboutus\/mediacenter\/newsreleases\/2021releases\/mar2021sales\"\u003ECalifornia median home price reaches new all-time high in March as nearly two-thirds of homes sell above asking price, C.A.R. reports\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EFierce competition drove California’s median home price to reach a new record high in March, while the state’s housing market continued its momentum with sales remaining solid heading into the spring homebuying season, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EClosed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 462,720 in February, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the February pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EClosed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annualized rate of 446,410 in March\u003C\/b\u003E, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2021 if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EMarch home sales decreased 3.5 percent from 462,720 in February and were up 19.7 percent from a year ago\u003C\/b\u003E, when 373,070 homes were sold on an annualized basis. While still solid, the monthly sales decline was the third in a row, and the sales pace was the lowest since last July. The near-20 percent sales gain can be attributed partly to weak home sales a year ago as the Coronavirus outbreak abruptly halted the real estate market and economy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“While intense homebuying interest is the engine that continues to drive housing demand, a shortage of homes for sales is the rocket fuel pushing prices higher across the state. A lack of homes for sale is creating unprecedented market competition, leading to\u003Cb\u003E a record share of homes selling above asking price in March\u003C\/b\u003E,” said C.A.R. President Dave Walsh, vice president and manager of the Compass San Jose office. “With more of the state’s COVID-19 restrictions being lifted in the coming months as we move into the spring home buying season, we should see home sales improve as more prospective home sellers feel comfortable listing their homes for sale.”  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  ...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Unsold Inventory Index (UII) dropped to 1.6 months in March from 2.0 months in February and was down sharply from a year ago, when there was 2.7 months of housing inventory. The index indicates the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current rate of sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EActive listings fell 51.1 percent in March from last year\u003C\/b\u003E — the third consecutive month that listings declined more than 50 percent. On a month-to-month basis, for-sale properties inched up by 5.3 percent in March and should climb further in the coming months as the market moves into the spring homebuying season, while the economy continues to improve.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ECR Note: Existing home sales are reported when the transaction closes, so this was mostly for contracts signed in January and February."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5064184104126748525\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5064184104126748525","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5064184104126748525"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5064184104126748525"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/california-march-housing-sales-up-20.html","title":"California March Housing: Sales up 20% YoY, Active Listings down 51% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});