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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"34299"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6926865090916714757"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-14T14:11:00.018-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-14T14:11:00.121-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhpswxMhsvV1IM1d4xmMtPjo2p3rbSWC54JI5a84J7jb6FL43xfa_VCWW8wjC8AxZHWuCfzUyF646jRTHQw85bTlmw75dpOqGByxhBaL8jNjtcfc8PE53eEhLQmlBJqthgP7kM9vLM1VCvZWfswNrCbPvKYNc6iy7MgvgSKoiun8aMb0s2N2Bpq\/s982\/MortgageDebtQ12025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Months of Supply\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhpswxMhsvV1IM1d4xmMtPjo2p3rbSWC54JI5a84J7jb6FL43xfa_VCWW8wjC8AxZHWuCfzUyF646jRTHQw85bTlmw75dpOqGByxhBaL8jNjtcfc8PE53eEhLQmlBJqthgP7kM9vLM1VCvZWfswNrCbPvKYNc6iy7MgvgSKoiun8aMb0s2N2Bpq\/s320\/MortgageDebtQ12025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home-717\"\u003ELawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-545\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-812\"\u003EPart 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/the-home-atm-mostly-closed-in-q1-963\"\u003EThe \"Home ATM\" Mostly Closed in Q1\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-900\"\u003E2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6926865090916714757"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6926865090916714757"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this_01023555884.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhpswxMhsvV1IM1d4xmMtPjo2p3rbSWC54JI5a84J7jb6FL43xfa_VCWW8wjC8AxZHWuCfzUyF646jRTHQw85bTlmw75dpOqGByxhBaL8jNjtcfc8PE53eEhLQmlBJqthgP7kM9vLM1VCvZWfswNrCbPvKYNc6iy7MgvgSKoiun8aMb0s2N2Bpq\/s72-c\/MortgageDebtQ12025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7516065097130392174"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-14T08:11:00.075-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-14T13:49:44.202-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of June 15, 2025"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key reports this week are May Retail Sales and Housing Starts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rates are expected to be unchanged.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, June 16th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The New York Fed \u003Cb\u003EEmpire State manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for June.  The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, up from -9.2.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, June 17th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgU7CfpuDDx31b6z1e5g4ux0Ce2SLfIpVGDpzbYSu2IaZXODKgm55gcgYRb7Pnep6v0l1tZB6vBZSweT3267HtUKvf9JmjNW3jaDTxxX9CdUplBLYmO8xEiVLPPe9Ytkg8LaVLwbU0-Bf3Voxplc_Iz_mEzUI1LojcDpMpYovlu0-2z9iE0-5ca\/s1042\/RetailApr2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgU7CfpuDDx31b6z1e5g4ux0Ce2SLfIpVGDpzbYSu2IaZXODKgm55gcgYRb7Pnep6v0l1tZB6vBZSweT3267HtUKvf9JmjNW3jaDTxxX9CdUplBLYmO8xEiVLPPe9Ytkg8LaVLwbU0-Bf3Voxplc_Iz_mEzUI1LojcDpMpYovlu0-2z9iE0-5ca\/s320\/RetailApr2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ERetail sales\u003C\/b\u003E for May is scheduled to be released. \u0026nbsp;The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in retail sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh0a_YCP3dljcJuGVLMs1ThL0fT3c4h3ylyzwr7izj_xQqTWh8beEI6QxBImYjvvyT2ozOCOulOmqtOI9XbxDukxR8-rK21qPo6_v0kb8wmY1rQDFnCIzB6bPYsFR0XEB6Gmycqb7_FR8yNZEOgmPDV5DFDiR8nqS7Qcil3QibcZK5SY1nBOLEc\/s1005\/IPApr2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh0a_YCP3dljcJuGVLMs1ThL0fT3c4h3ylyzwr7izj_xQqTWh8beEI6QxBImYjvvyT2ozOCOulOmqtOI9XbxDukxR8-rK21qPo6_v0kb8wmY1rQDFnCIzB6bPYsFR0XEB6Gmycqb7_FR8yNZEOgmPDV5DFDiR8nqS7Qcil3QibcZK5SY1nBOLEc\/s320\/IPApr2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E 9:15 AM: The Fed will release \u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/b\u003E for May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows industrial production since 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.7%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: The June \u003Cb\u003ENAHB homebuilder survey\u003C\/b\u003E. The consensus is for a reading of 36, up from 34 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, June 18th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 250 thousand, up from 248 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi90yh5zp8lDPYWDrUaeI67k5zgG_dJceZjS5t7XYi7SnTZzQu2VtLPczf1FmSI39kUepYdIb_ScbeCWTJVFpvsoE7mQf1yPwgG_TshN2iCHNHQKe7_jGchyphenhyphen_Nm1YAh-VrZEsahy_lAsUt_mylHjZGaJGRd7jZkfxdGMOxL3764IWV6AiVcs5zV\/s1017\/STartsApr2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi90yh5zp8lDPYWDrUaeI67k5zgG_dJceZjS5t7XYi7SnTZzQu2VtLPczf1FmSI39kUepYdIb_ScbeCWTJVFpvsoE7mQf1yPwgG_TshN2iCHNHQKe7_jGchyphenhyphen_Nm1YAh-VrZEsahy_lAsUt_mylHjZGaJGRd7jZkfxdGMOxL3764IWV6AiVcs5zV\/s320\/STartsApr2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts\u003C\/b\u003E for May. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is for 1.370 million SAAR, up from 1.361 million SAAR in April.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nDuring the day: The AIA's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Statement\u003C\/b\u003E.  The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at this meeting.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Projections\u003C\/b\u003E This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:30 PM: \u003Cb\u003EFed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, June 19th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAll \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nyse.com\/markets\/hours-calendars#holidays\"\u003EUS markets\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaqtrader.com\/Trader.aspx?id=Calendar\"\u003Ewill be closed\u003C\/a\u003E in observance of \u003Cb\u003EJuneteenth National Independence Day\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, June 20th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for June.  The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, up from -4.0 last month."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7516065097130392174"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7516065097130392174"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/schedule-for-week-of-june-15-2025.html","title":"Schedule for Week of June 15, 2025"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgU7CfpuDDx31b6z1e5g4ux0Ce2SLfIpVGDpzbYSu2IaZXODKgm55gcgYRb7Pnep6v0l1tZB6vBZSweT3267HtUKvf9JmjNW3jaDTxxX9CdUplBLYmO8xEiVLPPe9Ytkg8LaVLwbU0-Bf3Voxplc_Iz_mEzUI1LojcDpMpYovlu0-2z9iE0-5ca\/s72-c\/RetailApr2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7699576194151136102"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-13T19:11:00.005-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-13T19:11:00.138-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"June 13th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGhuBS3WJyEdpSbVUDTw2Qf75dtKtUOvN2UnOmAzecS5u4n9c6ZuhqYizgR2PGAio4i8FXk6bsdk3T5zIWJxq5eD536Ssg1BXCaNZzly3f0Trkd1O2lfgFbMQw4a2TH59rBs-bAamKIf1xPrMr35_ACuSxkCvipsbEkie3fyOzV03lKn1eV88M\/s408\/RatesJune132025.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGhuBS3WJyEdpSbVUDTw2Qf75dtKtUOvN2UnOmAzecS5u4n9c6ZuhqYizgR2PGAio4i8FXk6bsdk3T5zIWJxq5eD536Ssg1BXCaNZzly3f0Trkd1O2lfgFbMQw4a2TH59rBs-bAamKIf1xPrMr35_ACuSxkCvipsbEkie3fyOzV03lKn1eV88M\/s320\/RatesJune132025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: \"\u003Ci\u003EEffective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u0026nbsp; So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E208✅\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E255\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths.\u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi94ESKieL6WtieR1XKyfRxg0iJ-gUWpkn-HC1pE_VE5YXWwZ2HmvXgxg2UB5KNB2D-jMoKCIJ_dJyGgphiaDw5iJdN0FV_dKjNnEX8y5KGufcli4bz3z-yTcqkM4NQS8gbqcai7ln42DTdURHoi6lfzWNLIjdC_pGYRn_hpulPkpI60JBImMx8\/s1224\/COVIDDeathsJune132025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi94ESKieL6WtieR1XKyfRxg0iJ-gUWpkn-HC1pE_VE5YXWwZ2HmvXgxg2UB5KNB2D-jMoKCIJ_dJyGgphiaDw5iJdN0FV_dKjNnEX8y5KGufcli4bz3z-yTcqkM4NQS8gbqcai7ln42DTdURHoi6lfzWNLIjdC_pGYRn_hpulPkpI60JBImMx8\/s320\/COVIDDeathsJune132025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAlthough weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2024 (previous pandemic low of 314 deaths), I continued to post since deaths moved above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are below the goal for a couple more weeks.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAnd here is a graph I'm following concerning\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nwss\/rv\/COVID19-nationaltrend.html\"\u003ECOVID in wastewater\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;as of June 12th:\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgDGXEYa-pd4gg7ktGgauoboubrrS1Ab8JwCzj90PO1mxpbPKIknQ6c1cSjxNXVj_aj6nzzWKvhzaOdnCnUNTCjrCV75KfAc4Djq0A4ZMIkX35056zX-feyqsMzcmImfZw8MDlkzGW06YLHKc1x2AR-aEWApBlpvDejX_BLFjDI-GMoekesq84o\/s1030\/COVIDWasteJune132025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Wastewater\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgDGXEYa-pd4gg7ktGgauoboubrrS1Ab8JwCzj90PO1mxpbPKIknQ6c1cSjxNXVj_aj6nzzWKvhzaOdnCnUNTCjrCV75KfAc4Djq0A4ZMIkX35056zX-feyqsMzcmImfZw8MDlkzGW06YLHKc1x2AR-aEWApBlpvDejX_BLFjDI-GMoekesq84o\/s320\/COVIDWasteJune132025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.\u0026nbsp; This is below the lows of May 2024.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENationally COVID in wastewater is \"Very Low\".\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7699576194151136102"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7699576194151136102"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/june-13th-covid-update-weekly-covid.html","title":"June 13th COVID Update: Weekly COVID Deaths at New Pandemic Low"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGhuBS3WJyEdpSbVUDTw2Qf75dtKtUOvN2UnOmAzecS5u4n9c6ZuhqYizgR2PGAio4i8FXk6bsdk3T5zIWJxq5eD536Ssg1BXCaNZzly3f0Trkd1O2lfgFbMQw4a2TH59rBs-bAamKIf1xPrMr35_ACuSxkCvipsbEkie3fyOzV03lKn1eV88M\/s72-c\/RatesJune132025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7574270589477942144"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-13T14:33:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-13T14:33:13.114-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From housing economist Tom Lawler:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBased on publicly-available local realtor\/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million in May\u003C\/b\u003E, up 0.75% from April’s preliminary pace and down 0.74%% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat larger YOY % decline, reflecting this May’s lower business day count relative to last May’s.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nLocal realtor\/MLS reports suggest that the \u003Cb\u003Emedian existing single-family home sales price last month was up by just 1.0% from a year earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. By region SF median sales prices should be virtually flat from a year ago in the West, down by about 1% in the South, up about 4% in the Midwest, and up about 5% in the Northeast.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release May Existing Home sales on Monday, June 23rd at 10:00 AM.  Last year, the NAR reported sales in May 2024 at 4.06 million SAAR.  "},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7574270589477942144"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7574270589477942144"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html","title":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1579468520446159345"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-13T14:09:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-13T14:09:00.115-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Agent Booms and Busts"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2005\/12\/real-estate-agent-boom.html\"\u003Ethe Real Estate Agent Boom\u003C\/a\u003E.  Here is another update to the graph.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgx0wuDCdhhWVGLkllxWc0ADMh9QuwSd1Yxqn1RRHoDrcw1SQaOHgiGFZSsBZyCBnZl07tChp6qFAotJbQk8qduTSpyhvCc-KVjMH8vYzmoRr5sighhUn1AXlc8ux1DNT7L2cON_l51IbXAyPcvmnSDNn1M0JqcshNbw1hKHasAeLT_OZfhe6M8\/s932\/CSREApr2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"California Real Estate Licensees\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgx0wuDCdhhWVGLkllxWc0ADMh9QuwSd1Yxqn1RRHoDrcw1SQaOHgiGFZSsBZyCBnZl07tChp6qFAotJbQk8qduTSpyhvCc-KVjMH8vYzmoRr5sighhUn1AXlc8ux1DNT7L2cON_l51IbXAyPcvmnSDNn1M0JqcshNbw1hKHasAeLT_OZfhe6M8\/s320\/CSREApr2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe number of salesperson's licenses started increasing again in 2014 (after house prices bottomed), and peaked again in early 2024 (ignoring weird pandemic distortion).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe number of salesperson's licenses is down 1.4% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBrokers' licenses are off 21% from the peak and are still slowly declining (down 2.3% year-over-year)."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1579468520446159345"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1579468520446159345"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/real-estate-agent-booms-and-busts.html","title":"Real Estate Agent Booms and Busts"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgx0wuDCdhhWVGLkllxWc0ADMh9QuwSd1Yxqn1RRHoDrcw1SQaOHgiGFZSsBZyCBnZl07tChp6qFAotJbQk8qduTSpyhvCc-KVjMH8vYzmoRr5sighhUn1AXlc8ux1DNT7L2cON_l51IbXAyPcvmnSDNn1M0JqcshNbw1hKHasAeLT_OZfhe6M8\/s72-c\/CSREApr2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5536539012557671906"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-13T11:11:00.014-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-13T11:11:00.109-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q2 GDP Tracking"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003ESince our last weekly publication, our \u003Cb\u003E2Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.7% q\/q saar\u003C\/b\u003E and 1Q GDP is down one-tenth to -0.1% q\/q saar.  [June 13th estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe details of the trade balance report indicated that April exports were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions. We boosted our \u003Cb\u003EQ2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +3.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized\u003C\/b\u003E) and left our Q2 domestic final sales estimate unchanged at -0.5%. [June 5th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Atlanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhJptnM85wyApNOEG4RioHayfwRcm6aYC-AvJ3j4G0ROeUCKTuTJ3wKBpSzlQoqW6psQGdAMD60hfZXSPJVVXBNRalhbgyR_MfFkj12zmfkgKYSP2rsmxPsOh8junJ_foTThT3rz5fAdLdjxlVtLp1yAEdX7Nqotg87RoOxuFYQP5rlicOGjC5c\/s643\/GDPNowJune122025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"GDPNow\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhJptnM85wyApNOEG4RioHayfwRcm6aYC-AvJ3j4G0ROeUCKTuTJ3wKBpSzlQoqW6psQGdAMD60hfZXSPJVVXBNRalhbgyR_MfFkj12zmfkgKYSP2rsmxPsOh8junJ_foTThT3rz5fAdLdjxlVtLp1yAEdX7Nqotg87RoOxuFYQP5rlicOGjC5c\/s320\/GDPNowJune122025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for \u003Cb\u003Ereal GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on June 9, unchanged from June 5 after rounding. [June 9th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5536539012557671906"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5536539012557671906"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/q2-gdp-tracking.html","title":"Q2 GDP Tracking"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhJptnM85wyApNOEG4RioHayfwRcm6aYC-AvJ3j4G0ROeUCKTuTJ3wKBpSzlQoqW6psQGdAMD60hfZXSPJVVXBNRalhbgyR_MfFkj12zmfkgKYSP2rsmxPsOh8junJ_foTThT3rz5fAdLdjxlVtLp1yAEdX7Nqotg87RoOxuFYQP5rlicOGjC5c\/s72-c\/GDPNowJune122025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2692294085861020496"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-13T08:17:00.021-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-13T08:17:00.227-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Realtor.com Reports Most Actively \"For Sale\" Inventory since December 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003EWhat this means:\u003C\/b\u003E On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings.  On a monthly basis, they report total inventory.  For May, Realtor.com \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/may-2025-data\/\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003ERealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-june-7-2025\/\"\u003EWeekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending June 7, 2025\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EActive inventory climbed 27.7% year over year\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe number of homes actively for sale remains on a strong upward trajectory, now 27.7% higher than this time last year. This represents the 83rd consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the sixth week in a row over the threshold and the \u003Cb\u003Ehighest inventory level since December 2019\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Cb\u003ENew listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 5.2% year over year\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNew listings rose again last week on an annual basis, up 5.2% compared with the same period last year, a slightly faster growth compared with the previous week. The momentum that began earlier this spring remains strong ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Cb\u003EThe median list price was up 0.5% year over year\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe median list price increased 0.5% year over year this week as elevated prices persist into the summer. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.8% year over year. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EWith inventory climbing, and sales depressed, months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (excluding start of pandemic) putting downward pressure on house prices in certain areas."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2692294085861020496"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2692294085861020496"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/realtorcom-reports-most-actively-for_01332872790.html","title":"Realtor.com Reports Most Actively \"For Sale\" Inventory since December 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4660785051520268112"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-12T20:37:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-12T20:37:00.119-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Consumer Sentiment"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjUrpVJaPvdhdVNsKjwtFBDiOa_JhS21ZxCK3gj1De2SWNOjLgip5leIlMLPeiam1uLUlib2Wn-C6g60FE6KtKN6M7rEN4lFfjKimWWP-yimQb3Tcxq531E3HbQrfz70I6-F6uAk4CWmMI72xYlE-wGO5zrRCQgPQhMGqytEjBPZDU66HBYXdq8\/s403\/RatesJune122025.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjUrpVJaPvdhdVNsKjwtFBDiOa_JhS21ZxCK3gj1De2SWNOjLgip5leIlMLPeiam1uLUlib2Wn-C6g60FE6KtKN6M7rEN4lFfjKimWWP-yimQb3Tcxq531E3HbQrfz70I6-F6uAk4CWmMI72xYlE-wGO5zrRCQgPQhMGqytEjBPZDU66HBYXdq8\/s320\/RatesJune122025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Preliminary for June)."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4660785051520268112"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4660785051520268112"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/friday-consumer-sentiment.html","title":"Friday: Consumer Sentiment"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjUrpVJaPvdhdVNsKjwtFBDiOa_JhS21ZxCK3gj1De2SWNOjLgip5leIlMLPeiam1uLUlib2Wn-C6g60FE6KtKN6M7rEN4lFfjKimWWP-yimQb3Tcxq531E3HbQrfz70I6-F6uAk4CWmMI72xYlE-wGO5zrRCQgPQhMGqytEjBPZDU66HBYXdq8\/s72-c\/RatesJune122025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2240766377816974196"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-12T16:00:00.018-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-12T16:00:00.346-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.2% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom STR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/str.com\/press-release\/us-hotel-results-week-ending-7-june\"\u003EU.S. hotel results for week ending 7 June\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 June. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E1-7 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 67.0% (-3.2%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.57 (0.0%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.23 (-3.2%) \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh1wH3n3PInHoWXyQLJkUHLZO75wPrm_4pYhxwuKXXG6cyYSljNDAuulEoQC9IDzZfa4iwacLb0wI5EKks89gqA4c7s5WnMW0XIRt7qvO_UzUftDk7xaJOdNMgDK9P4ZPU9OhrsqZ3bBHFjXY9CEAlXbxcvdiMm-wAAWz9wt7tYzkSYvVAnXJDX\/s1030\/HotelJune122025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh1wH3n3PInHoWXyQLJkUHLZO75wPrm_4pYhxwuKXXG6cyYSljNDAuulEoQC9IDzZfa4iwacLb0wI5EKks89gqA4c7s5WnMW0XIRt7qvO_UzUftDk7xaJOdNMgDK9P4ZPU9OhrsqZ3bBHFjXY9CEAlXbxcvdiMm-wAAWz9wt7tYzkSYvVAnXJDX\/s320\/HotelJune122025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.\u0026nbsp; Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average will increase with the summer travel season.\u0026nbsp; We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2240766377816974196"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2240766377816974196"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-32-year.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.2% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh1wH3n3PInHoWXyQLJkUHLZO75wPrm_4pYhxwuKXXG6cyYSljNDAuulEoQC9IDzZfa4iwacLb0wI5EKks89gqA4c7s5WnMW0XIRt7qvO_UzUftDk7xaJOdNMgDK9P4ZPU9OhrsqZ3bBHFjXY9CEAlXbxcvdiMm-wAAWz9wt7tYzkSYvVAnXJDX\/s72-c\/HotelJune122025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-159495805728459140"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-12T12:59:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-12T12:59:54.954-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/the-home-atm-mostly-closed-in-q1-963\"\u003EThe \"Home ATM\" Mostly Closed in Q1\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EDuring the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhpswxMhsvV1IM1d4xmMtPjo2p3rbSWC54JI5a84J7jb6FL43xfa_VCWW8wjC8AxZHWuCfzUyF646jRTHQw85bTlmw75dpOqGByxhBaL8jNjtcfc8PE53eEhLQmlBJqthgP7kM9vLM1VCvZWfswNrCbPvKYNc6iy7MgvgSKoiun8aMb0s2N2Bpq\/s982\/MortgageDebtQ12025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Months of Supply\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhpswxMhsvV1IM1d4xmMtPjo2p3rbSWC54JI5a84J7jb6FL43xfa_VCWW8wjC8AxZHWuCfzUyF646jRTHQw85bTlmw75dpOqGByxhBaL8jNjtcfc8PE53eEhLQmlBJqthgP7kM9vLM1VCvZWfswNrCbPvKYNc6iy7MgvgSKoiun8aMb0s2N2Bpq\/s320\/MortgageDebtQ12025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/z1\/default.htm\"\u003EFinancial Accounts of the United States - Z.1\u003C\/a\u003E (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn Q1 2025, mortgage debt increased $45 billion, down from $112 billion in Q4. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHowever, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/159495805728459140"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/159495805728459140"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/total-mortgage-equity-withdrawal-mew.html","title":"Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Negative in Q1"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhpswxMhsvV1IM1d4xmMtPjo2p3rbSWC54JI5a84J7jb6FL43xfa_VCWW8wjC8AxZHWuCfzUyF646jRTHQw85bTlmw75dpOqGByxhBaL8jNjtcfc8PE53eEhLQmlBJqthgP7kM9vLM1VCvZWfswNrCbPvKYNc6iy7MgvgSKoiun8aMb0s2N2Bpq\/s72-c\/MortgageDebtQ12025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5602465227179262197"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-12T12:00:00.037-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-12T12:27:56.406-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $1.6 Trillion in Q1"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/z1\/20250612\/html\/default.htm\"\u003EFinancial Accounts of the United States\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $169.3 trillion during the first quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $2.3 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.2 trillion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHousehold debt increased 1.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgEQ95GtAh559mFcp2kKhF1577zic16iGzCcXSxz3SzTWhOrpPaxOON4WrjqYOi24EFErBwCybfeD1fmOEWxu-N-sQaMSHQzXiAxj_bnDtW3OKj2BWJwuSWgge7VT-LgfMe4QX19RN0hliquZtcxl1oVqyowZNPD7lFV5YQdSpefQZzlpRILXiy\/s1093\/FFNetWOrthQ12025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Household Net Worth as Percent of GDP\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgEQ95GtAh559mFcp2kKhF1577zic16iGzCcXSxz3SzTWhOrpPaxOON4WrjqYOi24EFErBwCybfeD1fmOEWxu-N-sQaMSHQzXiAxj_bnDtW3OKj2BWJwuSWgge7VT-LgfMe4QX19RN0hliquZtcxl1oVqyowZNPD7lFV5YQdSpefQZzlpRILXiy\/s320\/FFNetWOrthQ12025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENet worth decreased $1.6 trillion in Q1.\u0026nbsp; As a percent of GDP, net worth decreased in Q1 and is below the peak in 2021.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nThis includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjDOa4z6Yc0IYUmkH9FAg8JHr5lvLzmR1WDRJIUWXsGdProyaBGDejlUreRvqJvUXYYYk1DlEZC6PO-XQDcy-c9Wxaqs0dObHE579Edus_cr8-B8UASYE0GG4jIcHOYTrTS-AamNXXDs25uApq7L57cA5HVAhtRTeCmh93l1zctSfth7-NDA7x3\/s1090\/FFPercentEquityQ12025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Household Percent Equity\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjDOa4z6Yc0IYUmkH9FAg8JHr5lvLzmR1WDRJIUWXsGdProyaBGDejlUreRvqJvUXYYYk1DlEZC6PO-XQDcy-c9Wxaqs0dObHE579Edus_cr8-B8UASYE0GG4jIcHOYTrTS-AamNXXDs25uApq7L57cA5HVAhtRTeCmh93l1zctSfth7-NDA7x3\/s320\/FFPercentEquityQ12025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHousehold percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn Q1 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 72.0% - down from 72.2% in Q4, 2024\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjyy0lScgRsa_htIb-32Ma8J7ljNnMh08jgPh7WpiLWrPaEZqKCWyI6x_PWycCQeojBf5OXEeA2e0LyI8HqDnDPEJ5PN9beFEdDT384J0E0d_PNFXMA761Cs5MW5Dul3vu7krCKIAZ5OwF5KMx8vL8DorLyW_UNUhkR2_x8zSvqr00OxyzGZlQL\/s991\/FFMortgageDebtQ12025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Household Real Estate Assets Percent GDP\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjyy0lScgRsa_htIb-32Ma8J7ljNnMh08jgPh7WpiLWrPaEZqKCWyI6x_PWycCQeojBf5OXEeA2e0LyI8HqDnDPEJ5PN9beFEdDT384J0E0d_PNFXMA761Cs5MW5Dul3vu7krCKIAZ5OwF5KMx8vL8DorLyW_UNUhkR2_x8zSvqr00OxyzGZlQL\/s320\/FFMortgageDebtQ12025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMortgage debt increased by $45 billion in Q1.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMortgage debt is up $2.78 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 44.8% - down from Q4 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q1 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median\u0026nbsp;of the last 30 years.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5602465227179262197"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5602465227179262197"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/feds-flow-of-funds-household-net-worth.html","title":"Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $1.6 Trillion in Q1"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgEQ95GtAh559mFcp2kKhF1577zic16iGzCcXSxz3SzTWhOrpPaxOON4WrjqYOi24EFErBwCybfeD1fmOEWxu-N-sQaMSHQzXiAxj_bnDtW3OKj2BWJwuSWgge7VT-LgfMe4QX19RN0hliquZtcxl1oVqyowZNPD7lFV5YQdSpefQZzlpRILXiy\/s72-c\/FFNetWOrthQ12025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8090239669168985969"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-12T08:30:00.013-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-12T08:33:17.784-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 248,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nIn the week ending June 7, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000\u003C\/b\u003E, unchanged from the \nprevious week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week \nmoving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the \u003Cb\u003Ehighest level for \nthis average since August 26, 2023\u003C\/b\u003E when it was 245,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from \n235,000 to 235,250.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgniC88diF3hGPOIrIkaTUJpxtFoUxtRUrbi45mMqJETx4qAeYRHvtvQWH26tADPVD1GFpQ9KpcLtYkZnjhXiNNjlch2GpdoN6ZCGRfOwbmso9buxZo4SB6U5rhZsMWaLG1H5-26AROFFVE2FCiu-5Sd3JsQbPTCqb622P8ifs7aeArS1OYDyyw\/s1079\/WeeklyClaimsJune122025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgniC88diF3hGPOIrIkaTUJpxtFoUxtRUrbi45mMqJETx4qAeYRHvtvQWH26tADPVD1GFpQ9KpcLtYkZnjhXiNNjlch2GpdoN6ZCGRfOwbmso9buxZo4SB6U5rhZsMWaLG1H5-26AROFFVE2FCiu-5Sd3JsQbPTCqb622P8ifs7aeArS1OYDyyw\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsJune122025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,250.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWeekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8090239669168985969"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8090239669168985969"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-at.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 248,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgniC88diF3hGPOIrIkaTUJpxtFoUxtRUrbi45mMqJETx4qAeYRHvtvQWH26tADPVD1GFpQ9KpcLtYkZnjhXiNNjlch2GpdoN6ZCGRfOwbmso9buxZo4SB6U5rhZsMWaLG1H5-26AROFFVE2FCiu-5Sd3JsQbPTCqb622P8ifs7aeArS1OYDyyw\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsJune122025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8596934263241540803"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-11T19:37:00.005-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-11T19:37:00.135-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: PPI, Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEicdi8SnA8zzGZQRTUwlIo2AtLJVZVH8Un8g72eKLRmKq8_oVx209rXBUueWv0HuJ5DD9dcAZoK6wwxeh-jCr7jfjk-_r5BqZBiE1d72q_Rwokiw973WLq_KvEfMLlYioJuIJJw40XCeomv8i2SvyKfeTfcBO-NUsbCaYAszlJgeZQibq6RQBeF\/s403\/RatesJune112025.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEicdi8SnA8zzGZQRTUwlIo2AtLJVZVH8Un8g72eKLRmKq8_oVx209rXBUueWv0HuJ5DD9dcAZoK6wwxeh-jCr7jfjk-_r5BqZBiE1d72q_Rwokiw973WLq_KvEfMLlYioJuIJJw40XCeomv8i2SvyKfeTfcBO-NUsbCaYAszlJgeZQibq6RQBeF\/s320\/RatesJune112025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 239 thousand, up from 247 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for May\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 12:00 PM, \u003Cb\u003EQ1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States\u003C\/b\u003E from the Federal Reserve."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8596934263241540803"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8596934263241540803"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/thursday-ppi-unemployment-claims-flow.html","title":"Thursday: PPI, Unemployment Claims, Flow of Funds"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEicdi8SnA8zzGZQRTUwlIo2AtLJVZVH8Un8g72eKLRmKq8_oVx209rXBUueWv0HuJ5DD9dcAZoK6wwxeh-jCr7jfjk-_r5BqZBiE1d72q_Rwokiw973WLq_KvEfMLlYioJuIJJw40XCeomv8i2SvyKfeTfcBO-NUsbCaYAszlJgeZQibq6RQBeF\/s72-c\/RatesJune112025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5426875210656817294"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-11T13:00:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-11T13:00:23.674-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-900\"\u003E2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EI’ve rearranged these looks at local data with closed sales first, new listings second and active inventory at the end.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI’ve also spelled Raleigh correctly!  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhaFEz_ushKnvT90tooBgtEGWWJBqhBOfkHSoCUBpBHrnhJS7yi-Wh9aWJ9mZ0f3lwCxx33oMs9_-IDiQ1dQt6ec6qxoQqaNACRzjy5Fp_sIbzxqvSVaq9_F88ldoZnMagHajIAzlVa4L6wP-HlHTje1zIiJwrW6U6ciMX7zjhDw7wV1ZuS7IXJ\/s665\/ClosedMay2025V2.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Months-of-Supply\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhaFEz_ushKnvT90tooBgtEGWWJBqhBOfkHSoCUBpBHrnhJS7yi-Wh9aWJ9mZ0f3lwCxx33oMs9_-IDiQ1dQt6ec6qxoQqaNACRzjy5Fp_sIbzxqvSVaq9_F88ldoZnMagHajIAzlVa4L6wP-HlHTje1zIiJwrW6U6ciMX7zjhDw7wV1ZuS7IXJ\/s320\/ClosedMay2025V2.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIn May, sales in these early reporting markets were down 3.9% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were down 1.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EImportant:\u003C\/b\u003E There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be higher than for the NSA data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMany more local markets to come! \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5426875210656817294"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5426875210656817294"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-in-may.html","title":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhaFEz_ushKnvT90tooBgtEGWWJBqhBOfkHSoCUBpBHrnhJS7yi-Wh9aWJ9mZ0f3lwCxx33oMs9_-IDiQ1dQt6ec6qxoQqaNACRzjy5Fp_sIbzxqvSVaq9_F88ldoZnMagHajIAzlVa4L6wP-HlHTje1zIiJwrW6U6ciMX7zjhDw7wV1ZuS7IXJ\/s72-c\/ClosedMay2025V2.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3483965635184733962"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-11T11:22:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-11T11:22:23.888-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThe Cleveland Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.clevelandfed.org\/en\/our-research\/indicators-and-data\/median-cpi.aspx\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. \"The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgpVHmdPD6egH00-KhPmsJw9wciKrJBTm-jKj7BAfeF4S1nxosxDhu7FOz3D0GuaXAL1CEuDHm-c9_YW_itKyQDURUG7BGH94Vy2iyNv7ECGhuZ1sRhKI9AuPcIvHjoJamhqTbZELclACD8F2HoXuYO0QioBLZRsY1loP-8I-lpTxFA8_WmNDAI\/s1055\/InflationMay2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Inflation Measures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgpVHmdPD6egH00-KhPmsJw9wciKrJBTm-jKj7BAfeF4S1nxosxDhu7FOz3D0GuaXAL1CEuDHm-c9_YW_itKyQDURUG7BGH94Vy2iyNv7ECGhuZ1sRhKI9AuPcIvHjoJamhqTbZELclACD8F2HoXuYO0QioBLZRsY1loP-8I-lpTxFA8_WmNDAI\/s320\/InflationMay2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (unchanged from 3.5% YoY in April), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (unchanged from 3.0%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.8% (unchanged from 2.8%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECore PCE is for April was up 2.5% YoY, down from 2.7% in March.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3483965635184733962"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3483965635184733962"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02.html","title":"Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgpVHmdPD6egH00-KhPmsJw9wciKrJBTm-jKj7BAfeF4S1nxosxDhu7FOz3D0GuaXAL1CEuDHm-c9_YW_itKyQDURUG7BGH94Vy2iyNv7ECGhuZ1sRhKI9AuPcIvHjoJamhqTbZELclACD8F2HoXuYO0QioBLZRsY1loP-8I-lpTxFA8_WmNDAI\/s72-c\/InflationMay2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8066724644632183847"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-11T08:53:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-11T08:53:25.062-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here are a few measures of inflation:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; This declined and is now up 3.5% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgtaZ4w12eVXV3qZGR9EaZVufk2hPNmO_WwFzcbHGKvJs0rakO735zI4dwb9REb4-U1nM_XxV4v0TBJaqizhHMmR4ASpMDfudsfrKh0JvzdQTI-BS8pWRu6g7MLd5nnpRJOkW9QrERl5HRrp8bppdh0-kZYONgRyhR5irZIp1aE1vJtddzHsjrx\/s895\/ServicesLessShelterMay2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Services ex-Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgtaZ4w12eVXV3qZGR9EaZVufk2hPNmO_WwFzcbHGKvJs0rakO735zI4dwb9REb4-U1nM_XxV4v0TBJaqizhHMmR4ASpMDfudsfrKh0JvzdQTI-BS8pWRu6g7MLd5nnpRJOkW9QrERl5HRrp8bppdh0-kZYONgRyhR5irZIp1aE1vJtddzHsjrx\/s320\/ServicesLessShelterMay2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through May 2025.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EServices were up 3.7% YoY as of May 2025, unchanged from 3.7% YoY in April.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nServices less rent of shelter was up 3.5% YoY in May, up from 3.3% YoY in April.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg5DCFrO9ipF-Sc9_rH8TD_vKWI95IfkXkEwS8s_u7SZ8FqqzQqYMsU3iM_MJomo6i6ZsAAGHA7B7f98iVIndH8IKx5rWhpldMY3BxepEzuYiBTeX6CJKA7FJ4kcl3-3wIQvYjTVEUPzzwVUyASbfIws8yRuQnoSbz-vEWX5e4xSrj88OL-iJnJ\/s900\/GoodsYoYMay2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Goods CPI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg5DCFrO9ipF-Sc9_rH8TD_vKWI95IfkXkEwS8s_u7SZ8FqqzQqYMsU3iM_MJomo6i6ZsAAGHA7B7f98iVIndH8IKx5rWhpldMY3BxepEzuYiBTeX6CJKA7FJ4kcl3-3wIQvYjTVEUPzzwVUyASbfIws8yRuQnoSbz-vEWX5e4xSrj88OL-iJnJ\/s320\/GoodsYoYMay2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDurables were unchanged YoY as of May 2025, up from -0.4% YoY in April.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCommodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.3% YoY in May, up from 0.2% YoY in April.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgrRwmPOra2Nlpq6pWSuLbPkXjikV7rkC7vQKcz1aYX6NJYE_DUSFVOW4oyhtNOSIUHj2M4w0eAJ2VoFaG223YSubFiaFpr93J_rjS78YN27UOGdCkrVBBlMQlDbFtFwDzO_NywFEQZZx3Lq-drmVEZEK0alW5h3kOxohS_TFH-VHG7ndD0osKi\/s1117\/CPIShelterYoYMay2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Shelter\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgrRwmPOra2Nlpq6pWSuLbPkXjikV7rkC7vQKcz1aYX6NJYE_DUSFVOW4oyhtNOSIUHj2M4w0eAJ2VoFaG223YSubFiaFpr93J_rjS78YN27UOGdCkrVBBlMQlDbFtFwDzO_NywFEQZZx3Lq-drmVEZEK0alW5h3kOxohS_TFH-VHG7ndD0osKi\/s320\/CPIShelterYoYMay2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through May) and housing from the PCE report (through April)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nShelter was up 3.9% year-over-year in May\u003C\/b\u003E, down from 4.0% in April.  Housing (PCE) was up 4.2% YoY in April, down from 4.3% in March.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ECore CPI ex-shelter was up 1.9% YoY in May.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/b\u003EThis key measure has been at or below the Fed's target for 9 of the last 13 months."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8066724644632183847"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8066724644632183847"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html","title":"YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgtaZ4w12eVXV3qZGR9EaZVufk2hPNmO_WwFzcbHGKvJs0rakO735zI4dwb9REb4-U1nM_XxV4v0TBJaqizhHMmR4ASpMDfudsfrKh0JvzdQTI-BS8pWRu6g7MLd5nnpRJOkW9QrERl5HRrp8bppdh0-kZYONgRyhR5irZIp1aE1vJtddzHsjrx\/s72-c\/ServicesLessShelterMay2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7518123734399169330"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-11T08:30:00.012-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-11T08:31:59.935-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.1% in May; Core CPI increased 0.1%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\"\u003EFrom the BLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on a seasonally adjusted basis in\nMay, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,\nthe all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in May and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The\nfood index increased 0.3 percent as both of its major components, the index for food at home and the index for food\naway from home also rose 0.3 percent in May. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.0 percent in May as the\ngasoline index fell over the month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in May\u003C\/b\u003E, following a 0.2-percent increase in April.\nIndexes that increased over the month include medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and\noperations, personal care, and education. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and\napparel were among the major indexes that decreased in May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 2.3 percent over the 12 months\nending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index\ndecreased 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe change in CPI was slightly below expectations.  I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.  "},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7518123734399169330"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7518123734399169330"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/bls-cpi-increased-01-in-may-core-cpi.html","title":"BLS: CPI Increased 0.1% in May; Core CPI increased 0.1%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6061171967718676241"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-11T07:00:00.021-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-11T07:00:00.229-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications increased 12.5 percent from one \nweek earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage \nApplications Survey for the week ending June 6, 2025.  Last week’s results included an adjustment for the \nMemorial Day holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 12.5 percent on \na seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 23 \npercent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous \nweek and was 28 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase \nIndex increased 10 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 20 percent \ncompared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E20 percent higher than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n“Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a \nmonth, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications. Treasury rates saw some \nmovement during the week, which resulted in additional opportunities for borrowers,” said Joel Kan, \nMBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The rate for 15-year fixed rate loans and FHA loans \nsaw declines last week, while the 30-year fixed rate was largely unchanged. Purchase applications were \n20 percent ahead of last year’s pace, continuing to show strength compared to a year ago. Despite \nongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening \nhousing inventory in certain markets.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances \n($806,500 or less) increased to 6.93 percent from 6.92 percent, with points decreasing to 0.64 from 0.66 \n(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhXDzrRx00-Obn69okCrfxLk5TtzlzWOCKPKTwhQhhYadLQfALHm4CLXfz_xdtGvvFCCQJRW751q_OEMCdnnHlncn9CNQHAg_6xHfLPLRjBIu-9Yv8T-nxZAkECA-04DFRxPrn6jbeGjvlrH_Uvt8tDv-pCDBMRl_xBfATGv6AthPE_O89jyGNf\/s1083\/MBAJune112025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhXDzrRx00-Obn69okCrfxLk5TtzlzWOCKPKTwhQhhYadLQfALHm4CLXfz_xdtGvvFCCQJRW751q_OEMCdnnHlncn9CNQHAg_6xHfLPLRjBIu-9Yv8T-nxZAkECA-04DFRxPrn6jbeGjvlrH_Uvt8tDv-pCDBMRl_xBfATGv6AthPE_O89jyGNf\/s320\/MBAJune112025.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\n\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is up 20% year-over-year unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPurchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and is 13% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjOLBhp_QzWdYjW5n4Q6sb-lv-GbcR03LOkM268tntz2BsejgpAxUrEUaGx9LVqOBvMG2CMBP-spp0T3BOEcFYNa_Hl-XAmPECucETb1qIPUezqE64-2b82bqSEqUtzH97UyA6O3tjMkoWjdeAh0R4hrZjwVzxzD3Upt5ycoNjh9r8UfriB9JCB\/s1093\/MBARefiJune112025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjOLBhp_QzWdYjW5n4Q6sb-lv-GbcR03LOkM268tntz2BsejgpAxUrEUaGx9LVqOBvMG2CMBP-spp0T3BOEcFYNa_Hl-XAmPECucETb1qIPUezqE64-2b82bqSEqUtzH97UyA6O3tjMkoWjdeAh0R4hrZjwVzxzD3Upt5ycoNjh9r8UfriB9JCB\/s320\/MBARefiJune112025.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe refinance index increased but remained very low.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6061171967718676241"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6061171967718676241"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/mba-mortgage-applications-increase-in.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhXDzrRx00-Obn69okCrfxLk5TtzlzWOCKPKTwhQhhYadLQfALHm4CLXfz_xdtGvvFCCQJRW751q_OEMCdnnHlncn9CNQHAg_6xHfLPLRjBIu-9Yv8T-nxZAkECA-04DFRxPrn6jbeGjvlrH_Uvt8tDv-pCDBMRl_xBfATGv6AthPE_O89jyGNf\/s72-c\/MBAJune112025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5395480196056190462"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-10T19:45:00.005-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-10T19:45:00.118-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: CPI"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiRbF-jiY2gpw6h3fKfhvPwQ3QUr-MeMoVRP4zNDZ-Trt_gaS4sv0L1TpbB1NnT8ddeUDw7S3vhNOpVR4GVPNwgWEsSSY84NdP1dIcwPNE8BKV4TLebpvMQTzICr1II0SSTvoV3VG5ynbPk068SEvTqxrGjvjLv1lmhOj3XJtw6HckKaUyqUuaR\/s310\/RatesJune102025.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiRbF-jiY2gpw6h3fKfhvPwQ3QUr-MeMoVRP4zNDZ-Trt_gaS4sv0L1TpbB1NnT8ddeUDw7S3vhNOpVR4GVPNwgWEsSSY84NdP1dIcwPNE8BKV4TLebpvMQTzICr1II0SSTvoV3VG5ynbPk068SEvTqxrGjvjLv1lmhOj3XJtw6HckKaUyqUuaR\/s320\/RatesJune102025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for May\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 2.5% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 2.9% YoY)."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5395480196056190462"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5395480196056190462"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/wednesday-cpi.html","title":"Wednesday: CPI"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiRbF-jiY2gpw6h3fKfhvPwQ3QUr-MeMoVRP4zNDZ-Trt_gaS4sv0L1TpbB1NnT8ddeUDw7S3vhNOpVR4GVPNwgWEsSSY84NdP1dIcwPNE8BKV4TLebpvMQTzICr1II0SSTvoV3VG5ynbPk068SEvTqxrGjvjLv1lmhOj3XJtw6HckKaUyqUuaR\/s72-c\/RatesJune102025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6914955375080865807"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-10T14:44:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-10T14:44:37.324-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again.\u0026nbsp; So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.\u0026nbsp; We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nImportant: There are many differences between these periods.  Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now. \u0026nbsp;But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s).  Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Biden only served one term.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble and left during the bursting of the housing bubble.  Mr. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession.  There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThere was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (light purple) term, and Mr. Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;There was a pandemic related recession in 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFirst, here is a table for private sector jobs for each term. (Blue for Democrats, Red for Republicans)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 280px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003ETerm\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EPrivate Sector\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nJobs Added (000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EBiden\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E14,327\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EClinton 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E10,875\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EClinton 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E10,104\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EObama 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E9,924\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EReagan 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E9,351\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003ECarter\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E9,039\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EReagan 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E5,363\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EObama 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E1,889\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGHW Bush\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E1,507\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ETrump 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E507\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGW Bush 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E453\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGW Bush 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E-822\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ETrump 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E-2,178\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"2\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003EThrough 4 months\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjDoS8dYT-ocJxM6cbyr87Y24-inkxJEmz7W0a8W4Huys-NB5HrlAh29iX-kejyav676WeFqW0q8cDKNyFeJX_iOx88WY8MWh-qdqV2zfy_U_ZI9GYlMkxk1KBjm1bL_r1EqoIDkeVg3_nTDgORb2E2S8PBp9iKDOZfShys6MvH499ZtZsTLLvX\/s976\/PrivateMay2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Private Sector Payrolls\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjDoS8dYT-ocJxM6cbyr87Y24-inkxJEmz7W0a8W4Huys-NB5HrlAh29iX-kejyav676WeFqW0q8cDKNyFeJX_iOx88WY8MWh-qdqV2zfy_U_ZI9GYlMkxk1KBjm1bL_r1EqoIDkeVg3_nTDgORb2E2S8PBp9iKDOZfShys6MvH499ZtZsTLLvX\/s320\/PrivateMay2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph is for private employment only.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003EPrivate sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20,979,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 369,000 under President G.W. Bush, and gained 11,813,000 under President Obama (dark dashed blue).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;During President Trump's terms (Orange), the economy has lost 1,671,000 private sector jobs.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E   \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi8bnIG1FlaE4zrjJNLhL3Ek1z2gGH91F9j6YRsGv4kYWV29sjN6EYY7GIupZgs5Il2SUTi8Bgv090P3SSp_fGcJoumNTfwn-LV2UVU3iAGZH5dAllvpVLJ_Gbe5jWlllfiZRBkHxRkGkgRLAJl2uP7uHWXQuuV-1s9b6ZihzvITbKf0W84-Ila\/s974\/PublicMay2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Public Sector Payrolls\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi8bnIG1FlaE4zrjJNLhL3Ek1z2gGH91F9j6YRsGv4kYWV29sjN6EYY7GIupZgs5Il2SUTi8Bgv090P3SSp_fGcJoumNTfwn-LV2UVU3iAGZH5dAllvpVLJ_Gbe5jWlllfiZRBkHxRkGkgRLAJl2uP7uHWXQuuV-1s9b6ZihzvITbKf0W84-Ila\/s320\/PublicMay2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment.\u0026nbsp; Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).\u0026nbsp; However,\u0026nbsp;the public sector declined significantly while Mr. Obama was in office (down 263,000 jobs).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;During Mr. Trump's terms, the economy lost 536,000 public sector jobs (mostly teachers during the pandemic).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAnd a table for public sector jobs.  Public sector jobs increased have increased the most during Biden's term (mostly state and local employment), ahead of the number during Reagan's 2nd term.\u0026nbsp; Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama's first term.\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 280px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003ETerm\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EPublic Sector\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nJobs Added (000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EBiden\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E1,813\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EReagan 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E1,438\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003ECarter\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E1,304\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EClinton 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E1,242\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGHW Bush\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E1,127\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGW Bush 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E900\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EGW Bush 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E844\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EClinton 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E692\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EObama 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E447\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ETrump 2\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E1\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003EReagan 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E-24\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ETrump 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003E-537\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003EObama 1\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: blue;\"\u003E-710\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"2\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003EThrough 4 months\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6914955375080865807"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6914955375080865807"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/by-request-public-and-private-sector.html","title":"By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjDoS8dYT-ocJxM6cbyr87Y24-inkxJEmz7W0a8W4Huys-NB5HrlAh29iX-kejyav676WeFqW0q8cDKNyFeJX_iOx88WY8MWh-qdqV2zfy_U_ZI9GYlMkxk1KBjm1bL_r1EqoIDkeVg3_nTDgORb2E2S8PBp9iKDOZfShys6MvH499ZtZsTLLvX\/s72-c\/PrivateMay2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-967943709364641812"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-10T11:55:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-10T11:55:00.227-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"CPI Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for May\u003C\/b\u003E is scheduled to be released tomorrow.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.5% year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 2.9% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom Goldman Sachs economists: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe expect a 0.25% increase in May core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.89% (vs. +2.9% consensus). We expect a 0.17% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), reflecting higher food prices (+0.4%) and but sharply lower energy prices (-1.2%). ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nGoing forward, the impact of tariffs will likely provide a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation, and we expect monthly core CPI inflation of around 0.35% over the next few months. Our forecast reflects a sharp acceleration in most core goods categories but limited impact on core services inflation, at least in the near term. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further this year, reflecting shrinking contributions from the auto, housing rental, and labor markets. We expect year-over-year core CPI inflation of +3.5% and core PCE inflation of +3.6% in December 2025.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003EFor the May CPI report, we forecast headline CPI rose by 0.2% m\/m (0.16% unrounded) \nwhich would push the y\/y rate up a tenth to 2.4%. Core inflation, meanwhile, likely will \nprint at a firm 0.2% m\/m (0.24% unrounded). This would result in the y\/y rate increasing \nfrom 2.8% to 2.9%. We expect to see more signs of tariffs driving prices higher, but \nfavorable seasonal factors for autos and declines in certain services categories will keep \na lid on the top line inflation numbers. \u003C\/blockquote\u003ENote that month-to-month inflation was soft in May and June 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhW7cSgbQDwVP_OOAjQ29xeVolV2jpi0Z70d1OViKOX1f2kSUZXB6GeRL9BFUUg1xyxrPiaEM72qxOI6c7wKowoa-rb1R05JbO-EawQtx92NybUBeGX0QOR6vZT38mwCMT1EDzToq70mqiUuFUFf19UV3Ohn2GZSiyKDaCsukst2NTyTxxg6nT3\/s912\/CPIBack.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Inflation Month-to-month\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhW7cSgbQDwVP_OOAjQ29xeVolV2jpi0Z70d1OViKOX1f2kSUZXB6GeRL9BFUUg1xyxrPiaEM72qxOI6c7wKowoa-rb1R05JbO-EawQtx92NybUBeGX0QOR6vZT38mwCMT1EDzToq70mqiUuFUFf19UV3Ohn2GZSiyKDaCsukst2NTyTxxg6nT3\/s320\/CPIBack.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the month-to-month change in both headline and core inflation since January 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe circled area is the change for last May and June when inflation was soft.  So even somewhat benign readings over the next two months will push up year-over-year inflation.   Then the tariff related inflation will start to kick in."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/967943709364641812"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/967943709364641812"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/cpi-preview.html","title":"CPI Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhW7cSgbQDwVP_OOAjQ29xeVolV2jpi0Z70d1OViKOX1f2kSUZXB6GeRL9BFUUg1xyxrPiaEM72qxOI6c7wKowoa-rb1R05JbO-EawQtx92NybUBeGX0QOR6vZT38mwCMT1EDzToq70mqiUuFUFf19UV3Ohn2GZSiyKDaCsukst2NTyTxxg6nT3\/s72-c\/CPIBack.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4719549937329662953"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-10T08:23:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-10T08:23:36.114-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-812\"\u003EPart 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EYesterday, in \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-545\"\u003EPart 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025\u003C\/a\u003E I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.  I noted that the key story right now for existing homes is that inventory is increasing sharply, and sales are essentially flat compared to last year.  That means prices will be under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales).  And there are significant regional differences too.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi9zXwwAeFdN1C8TRKWdeR8zxtKexdljPmk4dJ7F4O__SVm9dsuwzGcIT4A2PKtwvXIls26vo24OPegcMK-nsqHhXLvJXSAY6R2uW_vh7Z_TK2vxm3znU-XoqpUohNcBjv4906FtQzjmndqdd-Gq0u68AUITLqjEFE6_uzMBi2l6zhfR-EEVXAE\/s1017\/CSYoYMar2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi9zXwwAeFdN1C8TRKWdeR8zxtKexdljPmk4dJ7F4O__SVm9dsuwzGcIT4A2PKtwvXIls26vo24OPegcMK-nsqHhXLvJXSAY6R2uW_vh7Z_TK2vxm3znU-XoqpUohNcBjv4906FtQzjmndqdd-Gq0u68AUITLqjEFE6_uzMBi2l6zhfR-EEVXAE\/s320\/CSYoYMar2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-263\"\u003ECase-Shiller National Index\u003C\/a\u003E increased 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in March and will likely be lower year-over-year in the April report compared to March (based on other data).  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.30% (a -3.5% annual rate). \u003Cb\u003EThis was the first MoM decrease since January 2023\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4719549937329662953"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4719549937329662953"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/part-2-current-state-of-housing-market.html","title":"Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi9zXwwAeFdN1C8TRKWdeR8zxtKexdljPmk4dJ7F4O__SVm9dsuwzGcIT4A2PKtwvXIls26vo24OPegcMK-nsqHhXLvJXSAY6R2uW_vh7Z_TK2vxm3znU-XoqpUohNcBjv4906FtQzjmndqdd-Gq0u68AUITLqjEFE6_uzMBi2l6zhfR-EEVXAE\/s72-c\/CSYoYMar2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3829303071425023111"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-09T20:07:00.009-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-09T20:07:00.115-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: Small Business Index"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj5LbSA4a1lf3XS2cO3RWdDny9TMbc1L5TekzYK1ea_N83aRnIZt5oU1G4_AFFTgKMoCV7wZMeyrXybGtzCIIPF5xTP1xX9so1Sskziu5jpie8FwHWYSyDEfjKOOWtvFK8Z3vVLDhyphenhyphenkkoKe0d-Qs-6_PM-qm-aTZNMp4cWZq1sXCe9iVuDqDW9R\/s398\/RatesJune92025.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj5LbSA4a1lf3XS2cO3RWdDny9TMbc1L5TekzYK1ea_N83aRnIZt5oU1G4_AFFTgKMoCV7wZMeyrXybGtzCIIPF5xTP1xX9so1Sskziu5jpie8FwHWYSyDEfjKOOWtvFK8Z3vVLDhyphenhyphenkkoKe0d-Qs-6_PM-qm-aTZNMp4cWZq1sXCe9iVuDqDW9R\/s320\/RatesJune92025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003EFrom Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-06092025\"\u003EMortgage Rates a Hair Lower to Start The Week\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAs hoped, Friday's big rate spike did not carry additional momentum into the new week.  This is occasionally a risk when rates are responding to big surprise in the jobs report, but slightly less of a risk when the other economic data had been weaker.  [\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/\"\u003E30 year fixed 6.95%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nTuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB \u003Cb\u003ESmall Business Optimism Index\u003C\/b\u003E for April."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3829303071425023111"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3829303071425023111"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/tuesday-small-business-index.html","title":"Tuesday: Small Business Index"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj5LbSA4a1lf3XS2cO3RWdDny9TMbc1L5TekzYK1ea_N83aRnIZt5oU1G4_AFFTgKMoCV7wZMeyrXybGtzCIIPF5xTP1xX9so1Sskziu5jpie8FwHWYSyDEfjKOOWtvFK8Z3vVLDhyphenhyphenkkoKe0d-Qs-6_PM-qm-aTZNMp4cWZq1sXCe9iVuDqDW9R\/s72-c\/RatesJune92025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3060344513834317375"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-09T16:12:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-09T16:12:58.843-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Intercontinental Exchange: House Prices growth slows to 1.4% YoY in May"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The ICE Home Price Index (HPI) is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom ICE (Intercontinental Exchange):\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• Recent data shows home price growth continued to cool, dropping to an annual growth rate of +1.4%, down from an already low +1.6% mid-month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices fell by -0.01% in the month – the first decline in this metric since 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• In fact, if you back out outliers, such as the Fed rate hikes in 2022 and the COVID shutdown in 2020, this is the first time we’ve seen home prices decline, on an adjusted basis, in any month since 2012.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Condos were the first to turn, with condo prices now down nearly a full percentage point from the same time last year. Single family residences, on the other hand, are still up a modest +1.7%.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAlmost a third (30%) of all major home sales markets have seen prices fall by at least a full percentage point, with 20% falling by 2% and seven markets (Austin, Cape Coral, North Port, San Francisco, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Boise City) falling by more than 5%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe largest drops from the peak in 2022 have been in Austin (-19.2%), Cape Coral (-12.1%), North Port, Fla. (-10.2%) and San Francisco (-8.3%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWhy is this happening?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMortgage rates have ticked higher in the wake of recent tariff and government spending announcements, which increased inflationary concerns and decreased the number of Fed rate cuts expected by the market in 2025.  Higher rates and moderated demand are allowing inventory levels to build, especially in the western U.S. with 40% of markets now seeing more homes for sale than they averaged from 2017-2019 and another 10% on pace for inventory to ‘normalize’ by the end of the year.  Denver now has twice as many homes for sale as it did in the years leading up to the pandemic, with California’s 10 largest markets seeing 40-75% more homes available for sale than at the same time last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAndy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research for ICE, says:\u003Cblockquote\u003E“We continue to see an inflection in the housing market as home-price softening expands beyond the Sunbelt into the West. With inventory levels beginning to normalize across much of the country, prospective homebuyers are finally beginning to see some long-anticipated price relief.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAs ICE mentioned, cities in the South have been leading the way in inventory increases and price declines (especially Florida and Texas).  Now the West Coast markets are following.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3060344513834317375"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3060344513834317375"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/intercontinental-exchange-house-prices.html","title":"Intercontinental Exchange: House Prices growth slows to 1.4% YoY in May"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2542553085999305750"},"published":{"$t":"2025-06-09T13:49:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-06-09T13:49:22.873-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Recession Watch Metrics"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/02\/predicting-next-recession.html\"\u003EEarly in February\u003C\/a\u003E, I expressed my \"increasing concern\" about the negative economic impact of \"executive \/ fiscal policy errors\", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn early April, I \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/04\/recession-watch-metrics.html\"\u003Ewent on recession watch\u003C\/a\u003E,\u0026nbsp;but I'm still \u003Cb\u003Enot yet predicting a recession\u003C\/b\u003E for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might place some checks on the executive branch.\u0026nbsp; Also, perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\nLast month Warren Buffett said: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\"We should be looking to trade with the rest of the world, and we should do what we do best, and they should do what they do best ... Trade should not be a weapon.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003EIn the short term, it is mostly trade policy that will negatively impact the economy.\u0026nbsp; However, there other aspects of policy that bear watching.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is some of the data I'm watching.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHousing:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp; Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiXJ_v01zjv3pKXH_NMxkj70VdOEc6FYMH7cAwwyBSgk2Vs-PiGk8f2GT5xuYhylrRBzY45rQCWOJQ_Kw7bPgyphwr_1Xi1Blaw_1B77vIILaPi449lJP5WvA8TbtGE1MFqgeBgyiAjZFC4H_OteZry-O0OVG68zdgHNTxPEuJLmVMfUPEU1xcc\/s988\/NHSYOYChangeApr2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"YoY Change New Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiXJ_v01zjv3pKXH_NMxkj70VdOEc6FYMH7cAwwyBSgk2Vs-PiGk8f2GT5xuYhylrRBzY45rQCWOJQ_Kw7bPgyphwr_1Xi1Blaw_1B77vIILaPi449lJP5WvA8TbtGE1MFqgeBgyiAjZFC4H_OteZry-O0OVG68zdgHNTxPEuJLmVMfUPEU1xcc\/s320\/NHSYOYChangeApr2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau.\u0026nbsp; Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average of NSA data) are up 3% year-over-year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EUsually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow.\u0026nbsp; An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Another exception was in late 2021\u0026nbsp;- we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020.\u0026nbsp; I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion.\u0026nbsp; Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.\u0026nbsp; But as I noted earlier, I was able to look past the pandemic distortion and was able to predict a pickup in new home sales due to the low level of existing home inventory and because homebuilders could offer mortgage incentives that would somewhat offset the sharp increase in mortgage rates.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere are no special circumstances now, and if this measure falls to off 20% a recession seems likely.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EYield Curve:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;The yield curve is a commonly used leading indicator.\u0026nbsp; I dismissed it when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and again in 2022.  Both times dismissing the yield curve was correct (the recession in 2020 was obviously due to the pandemic, so we will never know if the yield curve failed to predict a recession in 2019).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhV_wMdOsAQtprhHoKWv8eINv6ZDT1EP1D5BKhZFa-6D0pOVAb63P_TS2uTg5U7zClpjNbLHLe_OQocQ5ovntDql7sQTc3M8gXzRHQEa1ZlrWmjGFSg6sx6pfSuj-X4sk_GgJn1_ocKh769XpRqZ9KklaQuuUQ67zEiqr5bEgawte19DP0BB8xk\/s1310\/YieldCurveJune62025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhV_wMdOsAQtprhHoKWv8eINv6ZDT1EP1D5BKhZFa-6D0pOVAb63P_TS2uTg5U7zClpjNbLHLe_OQocQ5ovntDql7sQTc3M8gXzRHQEa1ZlrWmjGFSg6sx6pfSuj-X4sk_GgJn1_ocKh769XpRqZ9KklaQuuUQ67zEiqr5bEgawte19DP0BB8xk\/s320\/YieldCurveJune62025.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is a graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from FRED since 1976.\u003C\/div\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003EThe yield curve reverted to normal last year and is currently positive at 0.47.\u0026nbsp; If this inverts, this might suggest a recession is coming.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/T10Y2Y\"\u003EClick here for interactive graph at FRED\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi69S6BigOGmL1fsTI7o4UNc76xVSy_QTOwZdnSOqwDW8ISCnkWPiwYD-H5VezWXaGkYwmoOUQBO326ZsQWWBVqrzqw626TsC7Pv0TQBgI4qqZY_ysRVkSaJILQeEU8_1a62wjdW-j8LE3gDYTrgEOrLiHBmRLzqv6wYnRsFoBo5e1lgVmPyiBg\/s1071\/HeavyMay2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Heavy Truck Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi69S6BigOGmL1fsTI7o4UNc76xVSy_QTOwZdnSOqwDW8ISCnkWPiwYD-H5VezWXaGkYwmoOUQBO326ZsQWWBVqrzqw626TsC7Pv0TQBgI4qqZY_ysRVkSaJILQeEU8_1a62wjdW-j8LE3gDYTrgEOrLiHBmRLzqv6wYnRsFoBo5e1lgVmPyiBg\/s320\/HeavyMay2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHeavy Truck (and Vehicle Sales):\u003C\/b\u003E Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales.\u0026nbsp; This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the May 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Note: \"Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.\"\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHeavy truck sales were at 446 thousand SAAR in May, down from 457 thousand in April, and down 7.9% from 484 thousand SAAR in May 2024.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EUsually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales were OK in May.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEikvuXK51tw_zPovN7e6Ay2zN22Z3tLyFV9WuqG1woF-aedbcbcieCwxcfIIT6VVMKECAKxlM0-pEQodSzsg1nKPrsYLVEVA7sROlyrCocosPWGMDfih_vzbLH6T-ONpEr24aIr8urkz6i-rtcOU4lvokYJQcYU9BT8yPkSepl1XxAnt28_qPFT\/s1055\/VSMay2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEikvuXK51tw_zPovN7e6Ay2zN22Z3tLyFV9WuqG1woF-aedbcbcieCwxcfIIT6VVMKECAKxlM0-pEQodSzsg1nKPrsYLVEVA7sROlyrCocosPWGMDfih_vzbLH6T-ONpEr24aIr8urkz6i-rtcOU4lvokYJQcYU9BT8yPkSepl1XxAnt28_qPFT\/s320\/VSMay2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd light vehicle sales were ok in May after surging in March and April as buyers rushed to beat the tariffs.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;This is more of a \u003Cb\u003Econcurrent indicator\u003C\/b\u003E than heavy trucks.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELight vehicle sales in May (15.65 million SAAR) were down 9.4% from April, and down 1.1% from May 2024.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EUnemployment:\u003C\/b\u003E Two other \u003Cb\u003Econcurrent indicators\u003C\/b\u003E are the unemployment rate (using the \"Sahm Rule\") and weekly unemployment claims.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E \u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGMi6AsNjwR-1vRY5G6GxhdLVL-b3v-J33Hc_X3sWazQ6W08mdKgVqAlN_nRVLcpE_eD7F9kpxah-9zibyB-cFo5UKHbQ-eQoevcYxwSXoOgHACmqYaHT9YMMy4_nqXoybwIC5ItKLLbVgOfQ4VEiXw_VoMJpurtccls-RWWVX8RVH_Ea8brSA\/s1312\/SahmMay2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Sahm Rule\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGMi6AsNjwR-1vRY5G6GxhdLVL-b3v-J33Hc_X3sWazQ6W08mdKgVqAlN_nRVLcpE_eD7F9kpxah-9zibyB-cFo5UKHbQ-eQoevcYxwSXoOgHACmqYaHT9YMMy4_nqXoybwIC5ItKLLbVgOfQ4VEiXw_VoMJpurtccls-RWWVX8RVH_Ea8brSA\/s320\/SahmMay2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/SAHMREALTIME\"\u003ESahm rule from FRED\u003C\/a\u003E since 1959.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Sahm Rule was at 0.27 in May.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u0026nbsp;If this increases to 0.5 it will suggest a possible recession.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjL51AgutK-2a-HGmabndbLTHsavgXWmsynQzpOLDKahNFM85n9zjZEpc81FxnOBTGTfPI-3jU1GsFmMvJY6zD6jl01IQB43swrL1AheJb6qewHqFoFw6S_P7aFV3vKlxLE7M8hoj5dcsXLDIN68vi8fOc2jjfoeB-zJpVUuPoWCe0JJfr9dEs6\/s1081\/WeeklyClaimsJune52025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjL51AgutK-2a-HGmabndbLTHsavgXWmsynQzpOLDKahNFM85n9zjZEpc81FxnOBTGTfPI-3jU1GsFmMvJY6zD6jl01IQB43swrL1AheJb6qewHqFoFw6S_P7aFV3vKlxLE7M8hoj5dcsXLDIN68vi8fOc2jjfoeB-zJpVUuPoWCe0JJfr9dEs6\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsJune52025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd weekly unemployment claims always rise sharply at the beginning of a recession (other events - like hurricane Katrina - can cause a temporary spike in weekly claims).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs I noted earlier, I'm not sure how to estimate the economic damage caused by these tariffs. And they might just go away (no one knows).\u0026nbsp; There are also boycotts of U.S. goods and less international tourism based on both the tariffs and the inflammatory rhetoric of the current administration.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENone of these indicators are suggesting a recession.\u0026nbsp; For now, I'll focus on the leading indicators (especially housing) and I'll update this post monthly while I'm on recession watch.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2542553085999305750"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2542553085999305750"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/06\/recession-watch-metrics.html","title":"Recession Watch Metrics"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiXJ_v01zjv3pKXH_NMxkj70VdOEc6FYMH7cAwwyBSgk2Vs-PiGk8f2GT5xuYhylrRBzY45rQCWOJQ_Kw7bPgyphwr_1Xi1Blaw_1B77vIILaPi449lJP5WvA8TbtGE1MFqgeBgyiAjZFC4H_OteZry-O0OVG68zdgHNTxPEuJLmVMfUPEU1xcc\/s72-c\/NHSYOYChangeApr2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}}]}});