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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"28450"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-37362058640762672"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-07T21:00:00.006-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-07T21:00:00.669-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Job Openings, Beige Book"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/consumer_rates\/985038.aspx\"\u003EMortgage Rates Begin The Week Slightly Higher\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage rates moved slightly higher to begin the holiday-shortened week.  ... The damage is minimal in the bigger picture.  On average, lenders are quoting the same rates seen last week, but with slightly higher closing costs today.  Most of the weakness in the underlying bond market is centered on US Treasuries as opposed to the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that serve as the foundation for mortgage rates.  The Treasury-specific weakness is likely due to the presence of several big Treasury auctions this week in addition to heavy corporate bond issuance (which tends to hurt Treasuries more than MBS). [\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/\"\u003E30 year fixed 2.97%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ETuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\u003C\/b\u003E for July from the BLS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 2:00 PM, the \u003Cb\u003EFederal Reserve Beige Book\u003C\/b\u003E, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/37362058640762672\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=37362058640762672","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/37362058640762672"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/37362058640762672"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/wednesday-job-openings-beige-book.html","title":"Wednesday: Job Openings, Beige Book"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4522344701151257087"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-07T17:49:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-07T17:49:04.827-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Northwest Real Estate in August: Sales up 7% YoY, Inventory down 23% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nwmls.com\/News--Information\/page\/Northwest-MLS-brokers-say-August-housing-activity-follows-patterns-of-seasonal-slowing\"\u003ENorthwest MLS brokers say August housing activity follows patterns of seasonal slowing\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAugust typically brings a dip in housing activity and this year was no different, according to representatives from Northwest Multiple Listing Service when commenting on newly-released statistics. Figures comparing July to August show month-to-month drops in new listings, total inventory, pending sales, close sales, and median prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"August showed a more traditional seasonal pattern with decreased activity as families took end-of-summer vacations and made back-to-school preparations,\" remarked Frank Wilson, Kitsap regional manager and branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003ENWMLS statistics show the volume of new listings added during August, including single family homes and condominiums, declined from both July (down 11.5%) and twelve months ago (down 4.2%). Total inventory for the 26 counties in the report also fell, shrinking about 6.6% from July and nearly 22.6% from a year ago. \u003Cb\u003EAt month end, there were 7,425 active listings, down from the year-ago total of 9,591\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe press release is for the Northwest MLS area.  There were 10,571 closed sales in August 2021, up 7.4% from 9,847 sales in July 2020.\u0026nbsp; Active inventory for the Northwest was down 22.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIn Seattle, sales were up 10.1% year-over-year, and inventory was down 43.9% year-over-year.\u003C\/b\u003E  This puts the months-of-supply in Seattle at just 0.40 months."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4522344701151257087\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4522344701151257087","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4522344701151257087"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4522344701151257087"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/northwest-real-estate-in-august-sales.html","title":"Northwest Real Estate in August: Sales up 7% YoY, Inventory down 23% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3770601589102006819"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-07T16:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-07T16:00:00.541-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA Survey: \"Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.23%\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: This is as of August 29th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EShare of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.23%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance  decreased by 2 basis points from 3.25% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to \u003Cb\u003E3.23% as of  August 29, 2021\u003C\/b\u003E. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 1.63%.  Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 29 basis points to 3.63%, while the forbearance share for  portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 34 basis points to 7.52%. The percentage of  loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 1 basis point to 3.49%,  and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 2 basis points to 3.33%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“The share of loans in forbearance decreased by two basis points last week, with both new requests and  exits remaining at a slow pace as we reached the end of August,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior  Vice President and Chief Economist. “There was another large shift in the location of many FHA and VA  loans, which have been bought out of Ginnie Mae pools and moved onto servicer balance sheets. As a  result, there was a sharp drop in the share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance, and an offsetting  increase in the share of portfolio loans in forbearance. These buyouts enable servicers to stop advancing  principal and interest payments, and work with borrowers to begin paying again before they are resecuritized into Ginnie Mae pools.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iZfTWGeE0AM\/YTezoZY1ySI\/AAAAAAAA6yo\/MrwAdH2WN7g-AKYLnWJIcgZnmq4mSk-jgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1197\/MBAForbearSept72021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"MBA Forbearance Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iZfTWGeE0AM\/YTezoZY1ySI\/AAAAAAAA6yo\/MrwAdH2WN7g-AKYLnWJIcgZnmq4mSk-jgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBAForbearSept72021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.\u0026nbsp; Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe MBA notes: \"Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.05% to 0.04%.\""},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3770601589102006819\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3770601589102006819","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3770601589102006819"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3770601589102006819"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html","title":"MBA Survey: \"Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 3.23%\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iZfTWGeE0AM\/YTezoZY1ySI\/AAAAAAAA6yo\/MrwAdH2WN7g-AKYLnWJIcgZnmq4mSk-jgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBAForbearSept72021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5766414940251396398"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-07T15:19:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-07T15:19:47.579-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"September 7th COVID-19: Data reported after Holidays is always low and will be revised up "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003ECDC is the source\u003C\/a\u003E for all data.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Total doses administered: 374,488,924, as of a week ago 370,212,027.  Average doses last week: 0.61 million per day.\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics (POST-\u003Cb\u003EHOLIDAY DATA IS LOW\u003C\/b\u003E)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E53.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E52.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E176.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E174.1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E127,100\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E155,534\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E87,220\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E91,958\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E962\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,129\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIMPORTANT: \u003C\/b\u003EFor \"herd immunity\" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 11 states that have \u003Cb\u003Eachieved 60%\u003C\/b\u003E of \u003Cb\u003Etotal population fully vaccinated\u003C\/b\u003E: Vermont at 68.1%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland. New Jersey, Washington, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire at 60.1%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following 13 states and D.C. have \u003Cb\u003Ebetween 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated\u003C\/b\u003E: Oregon at 58.5%, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii,\u0026nbsp;Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan at 50.8%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are South Dakota at 49.6%, Kentucky at 49.1%, Arizona at 49.0%, Kansas at 48.8%, Ohio at 48.8%,\u0026nbsp;Nevada at 48.3%, Utah at 48.1%, Texas at 48.1% and Alaska at 47.5%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1-bgNhYRUXI\/YTe6oFfKNrI\/AAAAAAAA6yw\/LyEf5ljm5XMwh6wEr3Du7wvHMRxqNky1gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1192\/COVIDCasesSept72021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1-bgNhYRUXI\/YTe6oFfKNrI\/AAAAAAAA6yw\/LyEf5ljm5XMwh6wEr3Du7wvHMRxqNky1gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesSept72021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5766414940251396398\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5766414940251396398","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5766414940251396398"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5766414940251396398"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/september-7th-covid-19-data-reported.html","title":"September 7th COVID-19: Data reported after Holidays is always low and will be revised up "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1-bgNhYRUXI\/YTe6oFfKNrI\/AAAAAAAA6yw\/LyEf5ljm5XMwh6wEr3Du7wvHMRxqNky1gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesSept72021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1380200427629318836"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-07T10:51:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-07T10:51:07.849-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/agriculture\/lumber-and-softs\/random-length-lumber.html#\"\u003ECME random length\u003C\/a\u003E framing futures through September 7th.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELumber was at $680 per 1000 board feet this morning.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is down from a peak of $1,733, and up from $640 a year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-CshCVBomw24\/YTd1eTPYUpI\/AAAAAAAA6yg\/zE0oOT4Oh2sw3MeKr-P_2WqVAtgCKEYegCLcBGAsYHQ\/s999\/LumberSept72021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Lumber Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-CshCVBomw24\/YTd1eTPYUpI\/AAAAAAAA6yg\/zE0oOT4Oh2sw3MeKr-P_2WqVAtgCKEYegCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/LumberSept72021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELumber price are up 6% year-over-year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were supply constraints over the last year, for example, sawmills cut production and inventory at the beginning of the pandemic, and the West Coast fires in 2020 damaged privately-owned timberland (and maybe again in 2021).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe supply constraints have eased somewhat.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAnd there was a huge\u0026nbsp;surge in demand for lumber (demand remains strong).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1380200427629318836\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1380200427629318836","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1380200427629318836"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1380200427629318836"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/update-framing-lumber-prices-up-year.html","title":"Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-CshCVBomw24\/YTd1eTPYUpI\/AAAAAAAA6yg\/zE0oOT4Oh2sw3MeKr-P_2WqVAtgCKEYegCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/LumberSept72021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3793583067155458503"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-07T09:59:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-07T09:59:00.531-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe TSA is providing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.tsa.gov\/coronavirus\/passenger-throughput\"\u003Edaily travel numbers\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of September 6th.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-oqmp2ZDF-4o\/YTdWR1jINhI\/AAAAAAAA6yY\/WpX84MdVXUQHnF-oggy7JxXSCEm-plPuACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1029\/TSASept72021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"TSA Traveler Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-oqmp2ZDF-4o\/YTdWR1jINhI\/AAAAAAAA6yY\/WpX84MdVXUQHnF-oggy7JxXSCEm-plPuACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TSASept72021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven day average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 7-day average is down 17.8% from the same day in 2019 (82.2% of 2019).\u0026nbsp; (Dashed line)\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFocus on the dashed line (percent of 2019).\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Note that the dashed line hit a pandemic high over the Labor Day weekend - probably due to leisure travel.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe red line had turned down seasonally, but should start increasing seasonally.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIMPORTANT: OpenTable notes: \"we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year.\"  Thanks!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Nr7uXhDAOqQ\/YTaKwtLy-bI\/AAAAAAAA6yI\/jDvXshmJC9AncTDy5Qx_nlyjwkevS36IACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1064\/DinersSept62021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Diners\" border=\"0\" data-original-width=\"1077\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Nr7uXhDAOqQ\/YTaKwtLy-bI\/AAAAAAAA6yI\/jDvXshmJC9AncTDy5Qx_nlyjwkevS36IACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/DinersSept62021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is updated through September 5, 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is \"a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that this data is for \"\u003Cb\u003Eonly the restaurants that have chosen to reopen\u003C\/b\u003E in a given market\".  \u003Cb\u003ESince some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases.\u0026nbsp; Dining was generally picking up, but has moved down recently - and now picked up again for the Holiday weekend.\u0026nbsp; The 7-day average for the US is up 1% compared to 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Z0n_mul8Ogk\/YTaHRyukepI\/AAAAAAAA6xw\/j_kAsNzK1qk8xQE5tHGu_aBQHGBv7VXgACLcBGAsYHQ\/s885\/MovieSept62021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Move Box Office\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Z0n_mul8Ogk\/YTaHRyukepI\/AAAAAAAA6xw\/j_kAsNzK1qk8xQE5tHGu_aBQHGBv7VXgACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MovieSept62021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBlue is 2020 and Red is 2021.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 2nd.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMovie ticket sales were at $82 million last week, down about 44% from the median for the week.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-rHYM4gJ8oxw\/YTDtZ2Vf6WI\/AAAAAAAA6v0\/yJ10deGYX_oJJFjxLHi3sGLKoo3z0A-eQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1034\/HotelSept22021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-rHYM4gJ8oxw\/YTDtZ2Vf6WI\/AAAAAAAA6v0\/yJ10deGYX_oJJFjxLHi3sGLKoo3z0A-eQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/HotelSept22021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the \u003Cb\u003Efour week average\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOccupancy is above the horrible 2009 levels, but, according to STR, occupancy is declining due to both seasonal factors and \"concerns around the pandemic\".  With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - especially with the sharp increase in COVID pandemic cases and hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E   This data is through August 28th.  The occupancy rate is down 8.4% compared to the same week in 2019.  Note: Occupancy was up year-over-year, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENotes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-efGYA7IRNcw\/YTaID9NvK5I\/AAAAAAAA6x4\/jLNmaSjDfz0AIUZHQnvBStSkHEJhiIU5gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s903\/GasolineSept62021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"gasoline Consumption\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-efGYA7IRNcw\/YTaID9NvK5I\/AAAAAAAA6x4\/jLNmaSjDfz0AIUZHQnvBStSkHEJhiIU5gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/GasolineSept62021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the \u003Cb\u003Esame week of 2019\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBlue is for 2020.\u0026nbsp; Red is for 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs of August 27th, gasoline supplied was up 1.1% compared to the same week in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was the fifth week so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.apple.com\/covid19\/mobility\"\u003EApple mobility\u003C\/a\u003E. From Apple: \"This data is generated by counting \u003Cb\u003Ethe number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions\u003C\/b\u003E in select countries\/regions, sub-regions, and cities.\"  This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/mei.aspx\"\u003EMobility and Engagement Index\u003C\/a\u003E.  However the index is set \"relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February\", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZSDzbyfWRqo\/YTaMiZGV4CI\/AAAAAAAA6yQ\/6NVQqAxwHQYF61FUK12EMay1GI2b9-8-gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1064\/AppleTransitSept62021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Apple Mobility Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZSDzbyfWRqo\/YTaMiZGV4CI\/AAAAAAAA6yQ\/6NVQqAxwHQYF61FUK12EMay1GI2b9-8-gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/AppleTransitSept62021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data is through September 5th for the United States and several selected cities.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020.   This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted.   People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 116% of the January 2020 level.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENew York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- New York City Subway Usage -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is some interesting data on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ENew York subway usage\u003C\/a\u003E (HT BR).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yEcCJ1ZtZKw\/YTaJCrTp3RI\/AAAAAAAA6yA\/z4lTdmdcJFQe5jxX-mumq-nwvdEYPyVjACLcBGAsYHQ\/s618\/NYCTurnstileSept62021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New York City Subway Usage\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-yEcCJ1ZtZKw\/YTaJCrTp3RI\/AAAAAAAA6yA\/z4lTdmdcJFQe5jxX-mumq-nwvdEYPyVjACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/NYCTurnstileSept62021.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ETodd W Schneider\u003C\/a\u003E.  This is weekly data since 2015.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMost weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are over 11 million subway turnstile entries per week - and moving mostly sideways recently.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is through Friday, September 3rd.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESchneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EHe notes: \"Data updates weekly from the MTA’s \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/web.mta.info\/developers\/turnstile.html\"\u003Epublic turnstile data\u003C\/a\u003E, usually on Saturday mornings\".\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3793583067155458503\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3793583067155458503","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3793583067155458503"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3793583067155458503"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for.html","title":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-oqmp2ZDF-4o\/YTdWR1jINhI\/AAAAAAAA6yY\/WpX84MdVXUQHnF-oggy7JxXSCEm-plPuACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/TSASept72021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8358970118904133700"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-07T08:00:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-07T08:00:00.535-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"CoreLogic: House Prices up 18.0% YoY in July, All-Time High YoY Increase"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Notes: \u003Cb\u003EThis CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July\u003C\/b\u003E.  The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June.  The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom CoreLogic: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.corelogic.com\/insights\/home-price-index.aspx\"\u003EU.S. Home Price Index Annual Growth Reaches All-Time High in July, CoreLogic Reports\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ECoreLogic® ... released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for July 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith mortgage rates remaining near record lows, the ongoing challenges of persistent demand and constricted supply continue to put upward pressure on home prices. A recent CoreLogic survey of consumers looking to buy homes shows that, on average, 65.8% of respondents across all age cohorts strongly prefer standalone properties compared to other property types. Given the widespread demand, and considering the number of standalone homes built during the past decade, the single-family market is estimated to be undersupplied by 4.35 million units by 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Home price appreciation continues to escalate as millennials entering their prime home buying years, renters looking to escape skyrocketing rents and deep pocketed investors drive demand,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “On the supply side, it is also the result of chronic under building, especially of affordable stock. This lack of supply is unlikely to be resolved over the next 5 to 10 years without more aggressive incentives for builders to add new units.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003ENationally, \u003Cb\u003Ehome prices increased 18% in July 2021, compared to July 2020\u003C\/b\u003E. This is the largest 12-month growth in the U.S. index since the series began (January 1976 – January 1977). On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.8% compared to June 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E“July’s annual home price growth was the most that we have ever seen in the 45-year history of the CoreLogic Home Price Index,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “This price gain has far exceeded income growth and eroded affordability. In the coming months this will temper demand and lead to a slowing in price growth.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8358970118904133700\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8358970118904133700","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8358970118904133700"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8358970118904133700"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/corelogic-house-prices-up-180-yoy-in.html","title":"CoreLogic: House Prices up 18.0% YoY in July, All-Time High YoY Increase"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4453189671690534692"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-06T20:55:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-06T20:55:00.554-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Monday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/schedule-for-week-of-september-5-2021.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of September 5, 2021\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003ECorelogic House Price index\u003C\/b\u003E for July\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 are up 7 and DOW futures are up 49 (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOil prices were up over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $68.89 per barrel and Brent at $72.22 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $40, and Brent was at $41 - so \u003Cb\u003EWTI oil prices are UP about 70% year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $3.17 per gallon.  A year ago prices were at $2.20 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.97 per gallon year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4453189671690534692\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4453189671690534692","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4453189671690534692"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4453189671690534692"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/monday-night-futures.html","title":"Monday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7978210913401341563"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-06T13:07:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-06T13:07:39.921-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing: A Look at \"Affordability\" Indexes"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003EHousing: A Look at \"Affordability\" Indexes\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: I've started a newsletter focused solely on real estate.\u0026nbsp; This newsletter is ad free.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ERecent articles include:\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio\"\u003EReal House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in June\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/expect-house-prices-to-be-up-20-yoy\"\u003EExpect House Prices to be up 20% YoY in July Report\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/house-prices-increase-sharply-in\"\u003EHouse Prices Increase Sharply in June\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-inventory-is-the-key-metric\"\u003EHousing: Inventory is the Key Metric in 2021\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/forbearance-delinquencies-and-foreclosure\"\u003EForbearance, Delinquencies and Foreclosure:\u003C\/a\u003E Will the end of the foreclosure moratorium, combined with the expiration of a large number of forbearance plans, lead to a surge in foreclosures and impact house prices, as happened following the housing bubble?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/how-much-will-the-fannie-and-freddie\"\u003EHow Much will the Fannie \u0026amp; Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Increase for 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/new-home-sales-increase-to-708000\"\u003ENew Home Sales Increase to 708,000 Annual Rate in July\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/existing-home-sales-increased-to\"\u003EExisting-Home Sales Increased to 5.99 million in July\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-starts-decreased-to-1534\"\u003EHousing Starts decreased to 1.534 Million Annual Rate in July\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-and-demographics-the-next\"\u003EHousing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis will usually be published several times a week, and will provide more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe blog will continue as always!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E (Currently all content is available for free, but please subscribe).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7978210913401341563\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7978210913401341563","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7978210913401341563"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7978210913401341563"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/housing-look-at-affordability-indexes.html","title":"Housing: A Look at \"Affordability\" Indexes"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5075355499408581278"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-06T08:51:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-06T08:51:58.094-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Inventory Sept 6th Update: Inventory Up 1.4% Week-over-week, Up 43% from Low in early April"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ETracking existing home inventory will be very important this year\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-s-BLYVVq1FI\/YTYMA777WpI\/AAAAAAAA6xk\/o5RzZMLTc4QzP-5RGcAPX1L4LHIZMXV2ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1177\/AltosSept62021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Lumcber Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-s-BLYVVq1FI\/YTYMA777WpI\/AAAAAAAA6xk\/o5RzZMLTc4QzP-5RGcAPX1L4LHIZMXV2ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/AltosSept62021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs of September 3rd, inventory was at 437 thousand (7 day average), compared to 584 thousand for the same week a year ago.\u0026nbsp; That is a decline of 25.1%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECompared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 54%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EA week ago, inventory was at 431 thousand, and was down 27.1% YoY.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESeasonally, \u003Cb\u003Einventory has bottomed\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Inventory was about 42.7% above the record low in early April.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EA couple of interesting points from 2019:\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;In 2019, inventory bottomed at 814 thousand in February (so inventory is still very low compared to normal levels).\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;And, in 2019, inventory peaked at 972 thousand in early August (an increase of 158 thousand, or about 19% from the low).\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;So inventory is less than half of what we'd normally expect, however inventory has increased 131 thousand (close to normal).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKey question:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;Usually inventory peaks in the Summer, and then declines into the Fall.\u0026nbsp; Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern, or will inventory continue to increase over the coming months?\u0026nbsp; This will be important to watch for house prices and housing activity.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases - now well above the level of a year ago - but still well below a normal rate for August.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5075355499408581278\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5075355499408581278","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5075355499408581278"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5075355499408581278"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/housing-inventory-sept-6th-update.html","title":"Housing Inventory Sept 6th Update: Inventory Up 1.4% Week-over-week, Up 43% from Low in early April"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-s-BLYVVq1FI\/YTYMA777WpI\/AAAAAAAA6xk\/o5RzZMLTc4QzP-5RGcAPX1L4LHIZMXV2ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/AltosSept62021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-362686191409996760"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-05T11:10:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-05T11:10:37.565-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Denver Real Estate in August: Sales Down 15% YoY, Active Inventory Down 35% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S.  I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom the DMAR: Monthly Indicators, August 2021\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ETotal Residential Units Sold in August 2021 were 5,618, down 15.1% from 6,615 in August 2020.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EActive Residential Listings in August 2021 were 3,582, down 11.7% from last month, and down 34.8% from 6,449 in August 2020.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E \u003Cdiv\u003ENew Residential Listings in August 2021 were 6,109, down 14.6% from last month, and down 10.1% from 6,794 in August 2020.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory in Denver had been fairly steady over the last 6 or 7 years, but declined sharply in 2020.\u0026nbsp; This is still the lowest level of inventory for August on record.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EFrom DMAR:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dmarealtors.com\/news\/market-trends\/dmar-real-estate-market-trends-report-sep-21\"\u003EDMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report | SEP. '21\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EKeeping in trend with traditional seasonality, the transition from July to August felt like a shift as vacations slowed down in preparation for the school year and fall. Buyers are more willing to be patient in order to find the right house for the “right” price. The report saw this reflected in the days in MLS, which increased from nine to 11 in August 2021. Likewise, the close-price-to-list-price ratio dipped ever so slightly month-over-month. In a dramatic data point, the month-end active inventory dropped 11.69 percent. Historically speaking, the change in inventory is relatively consistent from July to August. \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EHowever, with \u003Cb\u003Eboth inventory and new listings decreasing\u003C\/b\u003E, the short-lived “loose grip” on inventory has tightened once again. Months of inventory decreased from the previous month to 0.637. The report also indicated that if no one were to put a property on the market for 19 days, there would be nothing to sell in the entire Denver Metro area.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EActive inventory in Denver is up 87% from the record low in March 2021."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/362686191409996760\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=362686191409996760","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/362686191409996760"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/362686191409996760"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/denver-real-estate-in-august-sales-down.html","title":"Denver Real Estate in August: Sales Down 15% YoY, Active Inventory Down 35% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7327169103751619968"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-04T17:35:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-04T17:35:42.464-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The Employment Situation is Worse than the Unemployment Rate Indicates"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The headline unemployment rate of 5.2% significantly understates the current situation.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is a table that shows the current number of unemployed and the unemployment rate (as of August 2021).\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThen I calculated the unemployment rate by including the number of people that have left the labor force since early 2020, and the expected growth in the labor force.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 620px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003Cthead\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EUnemployment\u003Cbr \/\u003ERate\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EUnemployed\u003Cbr \/\u003E(000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ELeft\u003Cbr \/\u003ELabor\u003Cbr \/\u003EForce\u003Cbr \/\u003E(000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EExpected\u003Cbr \/\u003ELabor\u003Cbr \/\u003EForce\u003Cbr \/\u003EGrowth\u003Cbr \/\u003E(000s)\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EAdjusted\u003Cbr \/\u003EUnemployment\u003Cbr \/\u003ERate\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/thead\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5,717\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7,185\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-1,727\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E100\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E23,109\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-7,970\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E200\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E19.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E20,975\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-6,248\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E300\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E16.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E17,697\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-4,651\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E400\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E16,308\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-4,363\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E500\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E8.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13,542\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,630\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E600\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ESep-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12,535\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-4,370\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E700\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOct-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11,049\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,730\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E800\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENov-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10,728\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,912\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E900\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDec-20\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10,736\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,881\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,000\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10,130\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-4,287\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,100\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFeb-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9,972\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-4,237\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,200\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9,710\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,890\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,300\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EApr-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9,812\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,460\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,400\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E8.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMay-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9,316\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,513\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,500\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E8.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9,484\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,362\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,600\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E8.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJul-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E8,702\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3,101\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,700\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E8.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EAug-21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E8,384\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-2,911\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,800\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E     \u003Cbr \/\u003EAs the economy recovers, many of the people that left the labor force will probably return, and there will likely be more entrants into the labor force (although \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/03\/lawler-update-on-dismal-demographics-of.html\"\u003Erecent demographic data has been dismal\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EIt would be a mistake to just look at the headline unemployment rate to assess the current situation."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7327169103751619968\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7327169103751619968","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7327169103751619968"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7327169103751619968"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/the-employment-situation-is-worse-than.html","title":"The Employment Situation is Worse than the Unemployment Rate Indicates"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3045350555243092673"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-04T08:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-04T08:11:00.676-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of September 5, 2021"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"This will be a light week for economic data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, September 6th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAll US markets will be closed in observance of the \u003Cb\u003ELabor Day\u003C\/b\u003E holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, September 7th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:00 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003ECorelogic House Price index\u003C\/b\u003E for July\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, September 8th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tVb-Yi34cuk\/YRE18Zok-4I\/AAAAAAAA6gE\/dQTqMPurLlo60tL0D0G9nmbt1Yqg_v5_wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1123\/JOLTSJune2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tVb-Yi34cuk\/YRE18Zok-4I\/AAAAAAAA6gE\/dQTqMPurLlo60tL0D0G9nmbt1Yqg_v5_wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/JOLTSJune2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\u003C\/b\u003E for July from the BLS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EJobs openings increased in June to 10.073 million from 9.483 million in May.\u0026nbsp; This was a new record high for this series.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe number of job openings (yellow) were up 65% year-over-year, and Quits were up 46% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2:00 PM: the \u003Cb\u003EFederal Reserve Beige Book\u003C\/b\u003E, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, September 9th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; There were 340 thousand initial claims last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, September 10th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for August\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in PPI, and a 0.6% increase in core PPI."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3045350555243092673\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3045350555243092673","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3045350555243092673"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3045350555243092673"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/schedule-for-week-of-september-5-2021.html","title":"Schedule for Week of September 5, 2021"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tVb-Yi34cuk\/YRE18Zok-4I\/AAAAAAAA6gE\/dQTqMPurLlo60tL0D0G9nmbt1Yqg_v5_wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/JOLTSJune2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1446057051984965464"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-03T16:39:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-03T16:39:20.073-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"CalculatedRisk Newsletter"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I've started a newsletter focused solely on real estate.\u0026nbsp; This newsletter is ad free.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ERecent articles include:\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio\"\u003EReal House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in June\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/expect-house-prices-to-be-up-20-yoy\"\u003EExpect House Prices to be up 20% YoY in July Report\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/house-prices-increase-sharply-in\"\u003EHouse Prices Increase Sharply in June\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-inventory-is-the-key-metric\"\u003EHousing: Inventory is the Key Metric in 2021\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/forbearance-delinquencies-and-foreclosure\"\u003EForbearance, Delinquencies and Foreclosure:\u003C\/a\u003E Will the end of the foreclosure moratorium, combined with the expiration of a large number of forbearance plans, lead to a surge in foreclosures and impact house prices, as happened following the housing bubble?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/how-much-will-the-fannie-and-freddie\"\u003EHow Much will the Fannie \u0026amp; Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Increase for 2022?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/new-home-sales-increase-to-708000\"\u003ENew Home Sales Increase to 708,000 Annual Rate in July\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/existing-home-sales-increased-to\"\u003EExisting-Home Sales Increased to 5.99 million in July\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-starts-decreased-to-1534\"\u003EHousing Starts decreased to 1.534 Million Annual Rate in July\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-and-demographics-the-next\"\u003EHousing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis will usually be published several times a week, and will provide more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe blog will continue as always!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E (Currently all content is available for free, but please subscribe).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1446057051984965464\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1446057051984965464","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1446057051984965464"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1446057051984965464"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/calculatedrisk-newsletter.html","title":"CalculatedRisk Newsletter"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8213557121152588413"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-03T16:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-03T16:00:30.609-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"September 3rd COVID-19: Vaccination Rate has Increased, Over 1,500 Deaths Reported Today"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"NOTE: There will be no weekend updates on COVID.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003ECDC is the source\u003C\/a\u003E for all data.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Total doses administered: 373,516,809, as of a week ago 366,838,484.  Average doses last week: 0.95 million per day.\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E52.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E52.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E175.5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E172.6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E152,546\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E148,564\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E91,674\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E88,858\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,094\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,038\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIMPORTANT: \u003C\/b\u003EFor \"herd immunity\" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 11 states that have \u003Cb\u003Eachieved 60%\u003C\/b\u003E of \u003Cb\u003Etotal population fully vaccinated\u003C\/b\u003E: Vermont at 68.1%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland. New Jersey, Washington, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire at 60.1%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following 13 states and D.C. have \u003Cb\u003Ebetween 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated\u003C\/b\u003E: Oregon at 58.4%, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii,\u0026nbsp;Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan at 50.7%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are South Dakota at 49.5%, Kentucky at 49.0%, Arizona at 48.9%,\u0026nbsp;Ohio at 48.6%, Kansas at 48.6%, Nevada at 48.2%, Utah at 47.9%, Texas at 47.9% and Alaska at 47.4%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zEQoqbGx8ow\/YTJ-MaCAZMI\/AAAAAAAA6xc\/7Rpg_aHjknsggun_vgMQtp8liJ9IHWgXQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1185\/COVIDCasesSept32021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zEQoqbGx8ow\/YTJ-MaCAZMI\/AAAAAAAA6xc\/7Rpg_aHjknsggun_vgMQtp8liJ9IHWgXQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesSept32021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8213557121152588413\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8213557121152588413","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8213557121152588413"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8213557121152588413"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/september-3rd-covid-19-vaccination-rate.html","title":"September 3rd COVID-19: Vaccination Rate has Increased, Over 1,500 Deaths Reported Today"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zEQoqbGx8ow\/YTJ-MaCAZMI\/AAAAAAAA6xc\/7Rpg_aHjknsggun_vgMQtp8liJ9IHWgXQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesSept32021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6948356450840444157"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-03T14:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-03T14:11:35.904-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AAR: August Rail Carloads and Intermodal Down Compared to 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/rail-traffic-data\/\"\u003ERail Time Indicators\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Ci\u003EGraphs and excerpts reprinted with permission\u003C\/i\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIntermodal is navigating many of the same  challenges that have plagued global supply chains for  months, such as\u003Cb\u003E shutdowns at ports and manufacturing  centers in Asia; port congestion; labor and capacity  shortages at docks, warehouses, and drayage firms;  container and chassis shortages; natural and man-made  disasters\u003C\/b\u003E (e.g., wildfires, hurricanes, and ships getting  stuck in canals). Pressures are intensifying as retailers,  many of whom already have much lower inventories  than they’d like, are trying to stock up for the upcoming  holiday season. At this point, no one knows if things will  get worse before they get better, and if they do get  worse, how much worse they will get. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-arkiQ_tuPOU\/YTJkPhXCemI\/AAAAAAAA6xM\/V_wfkSli44cwBFkBnODjK-rwGLDuuYcfwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s653\/AARCarloadsAug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-arkiQ_tuPOU\/YTJkPhXCemI\/AAAAAAAA6xM\/V_wfkSli44cwBFkBnODjK-rwGLDuuYcfwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/AARCarloadsAug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/popular-publications\/rail-time-indicators\"\u003ERail Time Indicators report\u003C\/a\u003E shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2019, 2020 and 2021:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ETotal originated carloads on U.S. railroads in  August 2021 were 934,762, up 4.1% (36,815 carloads) over  August 2020 and \u003Cb\u003Edown 11.4% (120,262 carloads) from  August 2019\u003C\/b\u003E. The 4.1% year-over-year gain in August  2021 was the smallest year-over-year gain since March  2021. Total carloads averaged 233,691 per week in  August 2021. Except for August 2020, that’s the lowest  weekly average for total carloads for an August in our  records that begin in 1988.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-P5QPKnvn6hY\/YTJkR-71tsI\/AAAAAAAA6xQ\/smO-9RrCah48VOL5rSht2h2tQhfbiccIgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s656\/AARIntermodalAug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-P5QPKnvn6hY\/YTJkR-71tsI\/AAAAAAAA6xQ\/smO-9RrCah48VOL5rSht2h2tQhfbiccIgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/AARIntermodalAug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the \u003Cb\u003Esix week average\u003C\/b\u003E (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2019, 2020 and 2021: (using intermodal or shipping containers):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. intermodal originations, which  are not included in carloads, were 3.3% lower in August  2021 than August 2020 and \u003Cb\u003E0.4% lower than August 2019\u003C\/b\u003E.  That’s their first year-over-year decline in 13 months.  Intermodal originations averaged 271,336 containers and  trailers per week in August 2021, the third lowest of the  eight months so far in 2021. In the 21 years from 2000 to  2020, August was a top-three intermodal month 16  times. That’s obviously won’t happen this year. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6948356450840444157\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6948356450840444157","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6948356450840444157"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6948356450840444157"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/aar-august-rail-carloads-and-intermodal.html","title":"AAR: August Rail Carloads and Intermodal Down Compared to 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-arkiQ_tuPOU\/YTJkPhXCemI\/AAAAAAAA6xM\/V_wfkSli44cwBFkBnODjK-rwGLDuuYcfwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/AARCarloadsAug2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1119796337615268458"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-03T11:24:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-03T11:24:49.702-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of August 31st.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom Andy Walden at Black Knight: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/blog-posts\/forbearances-tick-down-with-all-eyes-on-september-exits\/\"\u003EForbearances Tick Down, With All Eyes on September Exits\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe final week of August brought a 53,000 decline in the number of active forbearance plans, driven by a 23,000 reduction in plans among FHA\/VA loans. Plan volumes also improved from the week prior among both GSE (-20,000) and portfolio\/PLS (-10,000) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to Black Knight’s McDash Flash forbearance tracker, \u003Cb\u003Eas of August 31, 1.71 million borrowers remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans\u003C\/b\u003E, including 1.8% of GSE, 5.6% of FHA\/VA and 4.0% of portfolio held and privately securitized mortgages.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis puts plan volumes down nearly 9% (-168,000) from the same time last month as \u003Cb\u003Ethe market braces for the large wave of final plan expirations taking place in September\u003C\/b\u003E. Of the 629,000 plans slated to be reviewed for extension\/removal this month, nearly 400,000 are set to reach their final plan expirations based on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/cdn.blackknightinc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/BKI_MM_June2021_Report.pdf#page=12\"\u003Ecurrent allowable forbearance term lengths\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Nvid8PVrGho\/YTI97tfxsAI\/AAAAAAAA6xE\/0ChNSpudeGcENFKZPkQCmjqQmWbgcOw4ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1641\/BKForbearAug312021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Black Knight Forbearance\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Nvid8PVrGho\/YTI97tfxsAI\/AAAAAAAA6xE\/0ChNSpudeGcENFKZPkQCmjqQmWbgcOw4ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/BKForbearAug312021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003ESignificant volume declines could be seen in coming weeks as those plans reach their final expirations and exiting borrowers return to making mortgage payments in October. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1119796337615268458\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1119796337615268458","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1119796337615268458"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1119796337615268458"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/black-knight-number-of-homeowners-in.html","title":"Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Nvid8PVrGho\/YTI97tfxsAI\/AAAAAAAA6xE\/0ChNSpudeGcENFKZPkQCmjqQmWbgcOw4ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/BKForbearAug312021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1181153214432889655"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-03T09:21:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-03T09:21:43.467-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on August Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The headline jobs number in the August employment report was well below expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised up significantly.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;The participation rate was unchanged and the unemployment rate decreased to 5.2%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELeisure and hospitality was unchanged in August, probably due to the sharp increase in COVID cases.\u0026nbsp; In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 1.7 million jobs since February 2020.\u0026nbsp; So leisure and hospitality has now added back almost 79% of the jobs lost in March and April 2020.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EConstruction employment decreased 3 thousand, and manufacturing added 37 thousand jobs.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENOTE:\u003C\/b\u003E State and Local education lost 26 thousand jobs, seasonally adjusted, versus expectations of a solid gain.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEarlier: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/august-employment-report-235-thousand.html\"\u003EAugust Employment Report: 235 Thousand Jobs, 5.2% Unemployment Rate\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn August, the year-over-year employment change was 6.041 million jobs.  This turned positive in April due to the sharp jobs losses in April 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPermanent Job Losers\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jy1mPrmF_xM\/YTIc22ntYtI\/AAAAAAAA6wk\/nEBkq15GKCMhVyY_TOpJSYy_dWKo8lK0QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1046\/PermanentAug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jy1mPrmF_xM\/YTIc22ntYtI\/AAAAAAAA6wk\/nEBkq15GKCMhVyY_TOpJSYy_dWKo8lK0QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PermanentAug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today.  (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn August, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 2.487 million from 2.930 million in July.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThese jobs will likely be the hardest to recover, so it is a positive that the number of permanent job losers is declining rapidly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ue1Dldd7dO0\/YTIeJLaYowI\/AAAAAAAA6ws\/I45j95ELhX0x-zqpbvSHBSK9VsgR7tuWwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1060\/EmployPop2554July2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ue1Dldd7dO0\/YTIeJLaYowI\/AAAAAAAA6ws\/I45j95ELhX0x-zqpbvSHBSK9VsgR7tuWwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployPop2554July2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ESince the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe prime working age will be key as the economy recovers.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 25 to 54 participation rate was unchanged in August at 81.8% from 81.8% in July, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 78.0% from 77.8% in July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPart Time for Economic Reasons\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-OLCjC661jDw\/YTIfTWA9EpI\/AAAAAAAA6w0\/AdBjR-IvNXA8YS7Y7Bxj7SqH_8xhc1FjACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1021\/PartTimeAug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Part Time Workers\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-OLCjC661jDw\/YTIfTWA9EpI\/AAAAAAAA6w0\/AdBjR-IvNXA8YS7Y7Bxj7SqH_8xhc1FjACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PartTimeAug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFrom the BLS \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"\u003Ci\u003EIn August, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, was essentially unchanged. There were 4.4 million persons in this category in February  2020. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in August to 4.469 million from 4.483 million in July.  This is back close to pre-recession levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese workers are included in the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.t15.htm\"\u003Ealternate measure\u003C\/a\u003E of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 8.8% from 9.2% in July.  This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994.  This measure was at 7.0% in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EUnemployed over 26 Weeks\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-g412gcGWCbw\/YTIgl8QijOI\/AAAAAAAA6w8\/XgS_jZeEttwLSQgiEhbm_TZPvXwjRRFbQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1020\/UNemploy26Aug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Unemployed Over 26 Weeks\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-g412gcGWCbw\/YTIgl8QijOI\/AAAAAAAA6w8\/XgS_jZeEttwLSQgiEhbm_TZPvXwjRRFbQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/UNemploy26Aug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the BLS, there are 3.179 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 3.425\u0026nbsp;million in July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis does not include all the people that left the labor force.  This will be a key measure to follow during the recovery.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESummary:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe headline monthly jobs number was well below expectations, however the previous two months were revised up by 134,000 combined.\u0026nbsp; And the headline unemployment rate decreased to 5.2%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere was some good news - the decline in the unemployment rate, the decline in permanent job losers, and the decline in long term unemployed - however, there are still 5.3 million fewer jobs than prior to the recession, and overall this was a disappointing report, probably due to the sharp increase in COVID cases.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1181153214432889655\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1181153214432889655","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1181153214432889655"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1181153214432889655"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/comments-on-august-employment-report.html","title":"Comments on August Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jy1mPrmF_xM\/YTIc22ntYtI\/AAAAAAAA6wk\/nEBkq15GKCMhVyY_TOpJSYy_dWKo8lK0QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/PermanentAug2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4031863601524556851"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-03T08:41:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-03T08:41:07.708-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"August Employment Report: 235 Thousand Jobs, 5.2% Unemployment Rate"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003EBLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETotal nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in August, and the unemployment rate  declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  reported today. So far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 586,000. In August,  notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and  warehousing, private education, manufacturing, and other services. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised up by 24,000, from  +938,000 to +962,000, and the change for July was revised up by 110,000, from +943,000  to +1,053,000. With these revisions, \u003Cb\u003Eemployment in June and July combined is 134,000  higher than previously reported\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-nbGYUWbkDyU\/YTIWdT_X1vI\/AAAAAAAA6wE\/lTJaa9h1O14BHALYK1eZAc6O_Fzv5aO6wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1134\/EmployYoYAug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-nbGYUWbkDyU\/YTIWdT_X1vI\/AAAAAAAA6wE\/lTJaa9h1O14BHALYK1eZAc6O_Fzv5aO6wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployYoYAug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn August, the year-over-year change was 6.041 million jobs.\u0026nbsp; This was up significantly year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal payrolls increased by 235 thousand in August.\u0026nbsp; Private payrolls increased by 243 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPayrolls for June and July were revised up 134 thousand, combined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-RjSEFl4Rb3c\/YTIWgAhjdAI\/AAAAAAAA6wI\/uMA2zecuHRkJFvqzE27BIgl7L8AxjmK7gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1099\/EmployRecessionAug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-RjSEFl4Rb3c\/YTIWgAhjdAI\/AAAAAAAA6wI\/uMA2zecuHRkJFvqzE27BIgl7L8AxjmK7gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployRecessionAug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the \"Great Recession\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-AbVqoa0FQrg\/YTIXiHCQgxI\/AAAAAAAA6wU\/R5x50CJVXRcLO0EsmSYPvdBPBW-6Ft1FwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1059\/EmployPopAug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-AbVqoa0FQrg\/YTIXiHCQgxI\/AAAAAAAA6wU\/R5x50CJVXRcLO0EsmSYPvdBPBW-6Ft1FwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployPopAug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 61.7% in August, from 61.7% in July. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.5% from 58.4% (black line).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZapvwOMqgP8\/YTIXkTsFIOI\/AAAAAAAA6wY\/Jh9klrGy7NAqLrd4hZw2sG1Wa-Hj86CEwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1008\/UnemployAug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"unemployment rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZapvwOMqgP8\/YTIXkTsFIOI\/AAAAAAAA6wY\/Jh9klrGy7NAqLrd4hZw2sG1Wa-Hj86CEwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/UnemployAug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe unemployment rate decreased in August to 5.2% from 5.4% in July. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was well below consensus expectations, however June and July were revised up by 134,000 combined.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EI'll have more later ...\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4031863601524556851\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4031863601524556851","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4031863601524556851"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4031863601524556851"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/august-employment-report-235-thousand.html","title":"August Employment Report: 235 Thousand Jobs, 5.2% Unemployment Rate"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-nbGYUWbkDyU\/YTIWdT_X1vI\/AAAAAAAA6wE\/lTJaa9h1O14BHALYK1eZAc6O_Fzv5aO6wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EmployYoYAug2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-920852323552985333"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-02T21:00:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-02T21:00:00.440-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"My \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/08\/july-employment-preview.html\"\u003EAugust Employment Preview\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWe estimate \u003Cb\u003Enonfarm payrolls rose 500k in August\u003C\/b\u003E, below consensus of +725k. ... we expect the reopening of schools to boost job growth by around 150k in tomorrow’s report. ... We estimate a two-tenths drop in the\u003Cb\u003E unemployment rate to 5.2% ...\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003Ereflecting a firm household employment gain and a stable participation rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for August. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 728 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.2%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for August."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/920852323552985333\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=920852323552985333","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/920852323552985333"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/920852323552985333"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/friday-employment-report.html","title":"Friday: Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8626250022164180225"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-02T15:48:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-02T15:48:02.239-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in June"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"New newsletter article: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio\"\u003EReal House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in June\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI've started a newsletter focused solely on real estate.\u0026nbsp; This newsletter will be ad free.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe current article discusses real house prices, price-to-rent and price-to-median income (a key topic this year).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis newsletter will usually be published several times a week, and will provide more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe blog will continue as always!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E (Currently all content is available for free, but please subscribe).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8626250022164180225\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8626250022164180225","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8626250022164180225"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8626250022164180225"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/real-house-prices-price-to-rent-ratio.html","title":"Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in June"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-490313320577182354"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-02T15:01:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-02T15:01:56.630-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"September 2nd COVID-19: New Cases Still Increasing, Deaths Averaging Over 1,000 per Day"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailytrendscases\"\u003ECDC is the source\u003C\/a\u003E for all data.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAccording to the CDC, on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations\"\u003EVaccinations\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Total doses administered: 372,116,617, as of a week ago 365,767,674.  Average doses last week: 0.91 million per day.\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EToday\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EPercent fully Vaccinated\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E52.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E51.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥70.0%\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFully Vaccinated (millions)\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E175.0\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E172.2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≥232\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E153,245\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E146,086\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤5,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E91,590\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E87,966\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Day\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,046\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,009\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤50\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u0026nbsp;Minimum to achieve \"herd immunity\" (estimated between 70% and 85%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop daily posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E3\u003C\/sup\u003E7 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week\u0026nbsp;for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIMPORTANT: \u003C\/b\u003EFor \"herd immunity\" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EKUDOS\u003C\/b\u003E to the residents of the 10 states that have \u003Cb\u003Eachieved 60%\u003C\/b\u003E of \u003Cb\u003Etotal population fully vaccinated\u003C\/b\u003E: Vermont at 68.0%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland. New Jersey, Washington, New York, New Mexico at 60.2%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following 14 states and D.C. have \u003Cb\u003Ebetween 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated\u003C\/b\u003E:\u0026nbsp; New Hampshire at 59.8%, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii,\u0026nbsp;Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan at 50.6%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENext up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are South Dakota at 49.4%, Kentucky at 48.8%,\u0026nbsp;Ohio at 48.5%, Kansas at 48.5%, Arizona at 48.1%, Nevada at 48.1%, Utah at 47.8%, Texas at 47.8% and Alaska at 47.4%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-MT_10a8KQ8Y\/YTEfH6U1naI\/AAAAAAAA6v8\/YyneYIH-kKc9ja8UhRVHdrzsmIQv6W4BACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1178\/COVIDCasesSept22021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-MT_10a8KQ8Y\/YTEfH6U1naI\/AAAAAAAA6v8\/YyneYIH-kKc9ja8UhRVHdrzsmIQv6W4BACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesSept22021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/490313320577182354\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=490313320577182354","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/490313320577182354"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/490313320577182354"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/september-2nd-covid-19-new-cases-still.html","title":"September 2nd COVID-19: New Cases Still Increasing, Deaths Averaging Over 1,000 per Day"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-MT_10a8KQ8Y\/YTEfH6U1naI\/AAAAAAAA6v8\/YyneYIH-kKc9ja8UhRVHdrzsmIQv6W4BACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDCasesSept22021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4560660409138816736"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-02T14:09:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-02T14:09:50.889-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"August Employment Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for August.  The consensus is for 728 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.2%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThere were 943,000 jobs added in July, and the unemployment rate was at 5.4%. \u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jdi_VonOOKc\/YQ0sWsnHy7I\/AAAAAAAA6dg\/VY0e900HOxMD9kQXRVnXeMQUWMatdnMHwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1109\/EmployRecessionJuly2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jdi_VonOOKc\/YQ0sWsnHy7I\/AAAAAAAA6dg\/VY0e900HOxMD9kQXRVnXeMQUWMatdnMHwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployRecessionJuly2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• First, currently there are still \u003Cb\u003Eabout 5.7 million fewer jobs\u003C\/b\u003E than in February 2020 (before the pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but is now better than the worst of the \"Great Recession\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EADP Report:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/\"\u003EADP employment report\u003C\/a\u003E showed a gain of 374,000 private sector jobs, well below the consensus estimate of 638,000 jobs added.\u0026nbsp; The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report, but this suggests the BLS report could be below expectations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EISM Surveys:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).\u0026nbsp; The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/ism-manufacturing-index-increased-to.html\"\u003EISM® manufacturing employment index\u003C\/a\u003E decreased in August to 49.0%, down from 52.9% last month. \u0026nbsp; This would suggest a decline in manufacturing employment of around 25,000 jobs in August.  ADP showed 6,000 manufacturing jobs added.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe ISM® Services employment index will be released tomorrow.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EUnemployment Claims:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html\"\u003Eweekly claims report\u003C\/a\u003E showed a decrease in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (include the 12th of the month) from 424,000 in July to 349,000 in August.  This would usually suggest fewer layoffs in August than in July, although this might not be very useful right now. \u003Cb\u003EIn general, weekly claims have been close to expectations in August.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Z6y5SfLqlvk\/YQ0xkD5XcKI\/AAAAAAAA6d8\/7UIX2TpBdCE7ACujWqGr98Hav5yKuOWpgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1043\/PermanentJuly2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Z6y5SfLqlvk\/YQ0xkD5XcKI\/AAAAAAAA6d8\/7UIX2TpBdCE7ACujWqGr98Hav5yKuOWpgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PermanentJuly2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EPermanent Job Losers:\u003C\/b\u003E Something to watch in the employment report will be \"Permanent job losers\".  While there has been a strong bounce back in total employment, from the shutdown in March and April 2020, permanent job losers hasn't increased as sharply.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the June report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In July, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 2.930 million from 3.187 million in June. These jobs will likely be the hardest to recover.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EIMPORTANT:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Cb\u003Eemployment report will probably show another increase in state and local government education hiring\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Usually in August, about 250 thousand educators are hired as the school year starts in some areas.\u0026nbsp; This year, it seems likely more educators will be hired in August, and this could boost overall employment by a couple hundred thousand in the August report.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E     • \u003Cb\u003EConclusion:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;The data suggests a weaker than expected report in August.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;However, there are some seasonal factors that will boost the BLS report (especially related to education).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAs far as the pandemic, the number of daily cases during the reference week in August was around 125,000, up sharply from around 24,000 in July.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Although vaccinations continue to increase, this increase in cases is a negative for the job market.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESo my guess is the report will be below the consensus.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4560660409138816736\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4560660409138816736","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4560660409138816736"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4560660409138816736"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/august-employment-preview.html","title":"August Employment Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jdi_VonOOKc\/YQ0sWsnHy7I\/AAAAAAAA6dg\/VY0e900HOxMD9kQXRVnXeMQUWMatdnMHwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EmployRecessionJuly2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4617884862806255050"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-02T12:22:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-02T12:22:52.815-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 8% Compared to Same Week in 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.\u0026nbsp; So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe occupancy rate is down 8.4% compared to the same week in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom CoStar: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.costar.com\/article\/1879761604\/str-seasonality-pandemic-continue-to-weigh-down-weekly-us-hotel-performance\"\u003ESTR: Seasonality, Pandemic Continue To Weigh Down Weekly US Hotel Performance\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. hotel performance continued to decline from previous weeks, according to STR‘s latest data through August 28.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAugust 22-28, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 61.0% (-8.4%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Average daily rate (ADR): $131.91 (+3.2%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $80.53 (-5.5%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPerformance continues to reflect seasonality as well as the pandemic situation. Additionally, while data for August 27-28 showed a preliminary demand shift in the Gulf region, the impact of Hurricane Ida is expected to be more significant in future weeks of data. \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E   \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the \u003Cb\u003Efour week average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-rHYM4gJ8oxw\/YTDtZ2Vf6WI\/AAAAAAAA6v0\/yJ10deGYX_oJJFjxLHi3sGLKoo3z0A-eQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1034\/HotelSept22021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-rHYM4gJ8oxw\/YTDtZ2Vf6WI\/AAAAAAAA6v0\/yJ10deGYX_oJJFjxLHi3sGLKoo3z0A-eQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/HotelSept22021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOccupancy is above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid - but, according to STR, occupancy is declining due to both seasonal factors and the \"pandemic situation\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - especially with the sharp increase in COVID pandemic cases and hospitalizations.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4617884862806255050\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4617884862806255050","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4617884862806255050"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4617884862806255050"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/hotels-occupancy-rate-down-8-compared.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 8% Compared to Same Week in 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-rHYM4gJ8oxw\/YTDtZ2Vf6WI\/AAAAAAAA6v0\/yJ10deGYX_oJJFjxLHi3sGLKoo3z0A-eQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/HotelSept22021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4256502492007545378"},"published":{"$t":"2021-09-02T10:26:00.004-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2021-09-02T10:26:59.985-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"August Vehicles Sales Decreased to 13.06 Million SAAR"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for August this morning.  The BEA estimates sales of 13.06 million SAAR in August 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 10.7% from the July sales rate, and down 14.4% from August 2020.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was well below the consensus estimate of 15.0 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-t_DAm-2QvsA\/YTDeGHqIiCI\/AAAAAAAA6vk\/V6Ug5F3zkxotOa2Z3lh4_t61IP88wUICACLcBGAsYHQ\/s968\/VSShortAug2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-t_DAm-2QvsA\/YTDeGHqIiCI\/AAAAAAAA6vk\/V6Ug5F3zkxotOa2Z3lh4_t61IP88wUICACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/VSShortAug2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for August (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAfter April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHowever, \u003Cb\u003Esales have decreased recently due to supply issues.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESales-to-date are down 7.1% compared to the same period in 2019, and up 18.9% compared to the same period in 2020.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-whzv3Kn_a8E\/YTDeMAvT5UI\/AAAAAAAA6vo\/pEexcikrVu0euXcNFtwE54dRh0kDvHtMwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1057\/vSAugust2021.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-whzv3Kn_a8E\/YTDeMAvT5UI\/AAAAAAAA6vo\/pEexcikrVu0euXcNFtwE54dRh0kDvHtMwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/vSAugust2021.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 13.06 million SAAR.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4256502492007545378\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4256502492007545378","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4256502492007545378"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4256502492007545378"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/09\/august-vehicles-sales-decreased-to-1306.html","title":"August Vehicles Sales Decreased to 13.06 Million SAAR"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-t_DAm-2QvsA\/YTDeGHqIiCI\/AAAAAAAA6vk\/V6Ug5F3zkxotOa2Z3lh4_t61IP88wUICACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/VSShortAug2021.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});