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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"32622"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2549147230464083896"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-24T13:16:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-24T13:16:48.770-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AIA: \"Architecture firm billings retreat further in March\"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 20th Consecutive Month"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom the AIA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/live-aia-web.pantheonsite.io\/resource-center\/abi-march-2024-architecture-firm-billings-retreat-further-march\"\u003EABI March 2024: Architecture firm billings retreat further in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EBusiness conditions at architecture firms softened in March, as the \u003Cb\u003EAIA\/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.6\u003C\/b\u003E for the month. This marked the 14th consecutive month of declining billings at firms as inflation, supply chain issues, and other economic challenges continue to affect business. While inquiries into new projects have continued to grow during that period, it has been at a slower pace than in 2021 and 2022. More notably, the value of new signed design contracts was flat in March, which has generally been the trend for the last year and a half. This shows that clients are interested in starting new projects but remain hesitant to sign a contract and officially commit to those projects. However, most firms report that they still have strong project backlogs of 6.6 months, on average, so even with the ongoing soft patch, they still have work in the pipeline.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nArchitecture firm billings also continued to decline at firms in all regions of the country, and at firms of all specializations in March, just like in February. Regionally, business conditions were softest at firms located in the Midwest and South. By specialization, billings declined faster at firms with a commercial\/industrial specialization and remained weak at firms with a multifamily residential specialization. However, firms with an institutional specialization reported billings that were essentially flat, marking the third straight month of that trend.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E• Northeast (46.0); Midwest (45.2); South (45.3); West (47.6)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Sector index breakdown: commercial\/industrial (42.9); institutional (49.9); \u003Cb\u003Emultifamily residential (44.2)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhTCTA2Z7tODQYumQkleXQsaAstflqyy3En2Cou0-e_4rD8ACiw9WDw7lXv8hgUidU1cGEW9tzaKpQJy9sxHnsi-L5_dZBzDvtT-0ptrKrF4UNNO0sjYt8y-t_l9Q73lotYb2hwgIWPMYUjilYTHEk5Ryr97zqBmREZSIGFr96oQzwtLUeQ0iTH\/s997\/ABIMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"AIA Architecture Billing Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhTCTA2Z7tODQYumQkleXQsaAstflqyy3En2Cou0-e_4rD8ACiw9WDw7lXv8hgUidU1cGEW9tzaKpQJy9sxHnsi-L5_dZBzDvtT-0ptrKrF4UNNO0sjYt8y-t_l9Q73lotYb2hwgIWPMYUjilYTHEk5Ryr97zqBmREZSIGFr96oQzwtLUeQ0iTH\/s320\/ABIMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 43.6 in March, down from 49.5 in February.\u0026nbsp; Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2024.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENote that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for twenty consecutive\u0026nbsp;months \u003C\/b\u003E(with revisions).\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;This suggests we will see a further weakness in multi-family starts.\u003C\/div\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2549147230464083896\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2549147230464083896","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2549147230464083896"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2549147230464083896"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/aia-architecture-firm-billings-retreat.html","title":"AIA: \"Architecture firm billings retreat further in March\"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 20th Consecutive Month"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhTCTA2Z7tODQYumQkleXQsaAstflqyy3En2Cou0-e_4rD8ACiw9WDw7lXv8hgUidU1cGEW9tzaKpQJy9sxHnsi-L5_dZBzDvtT-0ptrKrF4UNNO0sjYt8y-t_l9Q73lotYb2hwgIWPMYUjilYTHEk5Ryr97zqBmREZSIGFr96oQzwtLUeQ0iTH\/s72-c\/ABIMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7216866728985395042"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-24T09:49:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-24T09:49:14.113-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/final-look-at-local-housing-markets-731\"\u003EFinal Look at Local Housing Markets in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EAfter the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-1bd\"\u003Emonthly existing home sales report\u003C\/a\u003E, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in March.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI’ve added a comparison of active listings, new listings, and closings to the same month in 2019 (for markets with available data). This gives us a sense of the current low level of sales and inventory, and also shows some significant regional differences.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe big stories for March were that existing home sales decreased to 4.19 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and new listings were up YoY for the 6th consecutive month although new listing growth slowed.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhZhA-T_AEseq_hvgSXsrIlVkhdufDuRag5YOoNtu8XBhincN4CYn3k9_OAlIUkN0gj61IZcsQHhZ1BnA7Srk4NsiwrCnkBebTmOvkvMym8k05mWs7XYaxAxM9a-3V9kjR7_e1BMoAq68HLNpd9AWdPyon5kOfjQGcKX8CNMqKfB8fSdROibZyz\/s799\/ClosedMar2024V5.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhZhA-T_AEseq_hvgSXsrIlVkhdufDuRag5YOoNtu8XBhincN4CYn3k9_OAlIUkN0gj61IZcsQHhZ1BnA7Srk4NsiwrCnkBebTmOvkvMym8k05mWs7XYaxAxM9a-3V9kjR7_e1BMoAq68HLNpd9AWdPyon5kOfjQGcKX8CNMqKfB8fSdROibZyz\/s320\/ClosedMar2024V5.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd a table of March sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was a 10.3% year-over-year decrease NSA for these markets. This is about the same as the 9.7% decline NSA reported by the NAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHowever, there were two fewer working days in March 2024 compared to March 2023, so sales Seasonally Adjusted were down less year-over-year than Not Seasonally Adjusted sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote for next month (April sales): \u003Cb\u003EThere were two more working days in April 2024 compared to April 2023, so seasonally adjusted sales will be lower than the NSA data suggests.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMore local data coming in May for activity in April! \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7216866728985395042\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7216866728985395042","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7216866728985395042"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7216866728985395042"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/final-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhZhA-T_AEseq_hvgSXsrIlVkhdufDuRag5YOoNtu8XBhincN4CYn3k9_OAlIUkN0gj61IZcsQHhZ1BnA7Srk4NsiwrCnkBebTmOvkvMym8k05mWs7XYaxAxM9a-3V9kjR7_e1BMoAq68HLNpd9AWdPyon5kOfjQGcKX8CNMqKfB8fSdROibZyz\/s72-c\/ClosedMar2024V5.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2273819097967112295"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-24T07:00:00.018-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-24T08:16:57.017-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 2.7 percent from one \nweek earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage \nApplications Survey for the week ending April 19, 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.7 percent on \na seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2\npercent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous \nweek and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase \nIndex decreased 1 percent from one week earlier.\u003C\/b\u003E The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent\ncompared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E15 percent lower than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week, reaching their highest levels since late 2023 and\nputting a damper on applications activity. The 30-year fixed rate increased for the third consecutive week \nto 7.24 percent, the highest since November 2023,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy \nChief Economist. “Purchase applications declined, as home buyers delayed their purchase decisions due \nto strained affordability and low supply. The ARM share of applications increased to 7.6 percent, \nconsistent with the upward trend in rates, as buyers look to reduce their potential monthly payments.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances \n($766,550 or less) increased to 7.24 percent from 7.13 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.65\n(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjg1OKhp5WczzpTNJqm8xrBeD5smYQr45qS6MP9KwGpQ38u3i6G0DpNeBVe5Vgl0Ie6O8VvSlUAuVEjMmRzyhmElcMdI2JE3SCH4cEmqbDNl1K9cF22GCx6D6Jw3HI0Dr11dtLUBlTMe4N7RU_WzwSbNYzfdb9913cHL948hqMYZXPopv5LJ-gZ\/s1087\/MBAApr24024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjg1OKhp5WczzpTNJqm8xrBeD5smYQr45qS6MP9KwGpQ38u3i6G0DpNeBVe5Vgl0Ie6O8VvSlUAuVEjMmRzyhmElcMdI2JE3SCH4cEmqbDNl1K9cF22GCx6D6Jw3HI0Dr11dtLUBlTMe4N7RU_WzwSbNYzfdb9913cHL948hqMYZXPopv5LJ-gZ\/s320\/MBAApr24024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 15% year-over-year unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPurchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjBgZuB3pXj4ttcc9guLfSwC5Q7V6RN0vAuszTCNFSOO_1eBAHCUEczCroEO19uRb9nkUTZNmuDU7uOhJ5xKCWUzIj74uyrNexcNcN8NoaORx39LQgzvRwJIUbuDhTkK4AdXTMU0cOQ8PCHYX1j6foTbpJ8IssDEL6K5ihVUUuBJpP10a0hizOs\/s1095\/MBARefiApr242024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjBgZuB3pXj4ttcc9guLfSwC5Q7V6RN0vAuszTCNFSOO_1eBAHCUEczCroEO19uRb9nkUTZNmuDU7uOhJ5xKCWUzIj74uyrNexcNcN8NoaORx39LQgzvRwJIUbuDhTkK4AdXTMU0cOQ8PCHYX1j6foTbpJ8IssDEL6K5ihVUUuBJpP10a0hizOs\/s320\/MBARefiApr242024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flat lined since then.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2273819097967112295\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2273819097967112295","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2273819097967112295"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2273819097967112295"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/mba-mortgage-applications-increased-in_01629567.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjg1OKhp5WczzpTNJqm8xrBeD5smYQr45qS6MP9KwGpQ38u3i6G0DpNeBVe5Vgl0Ie6O8VvSlUAuVEjMmRzyhmElcMdI2JE3SCH4cEmqbDNl1K9cF22GCx6D6Jw3HI0Dr11dtLUBlTMe4N7RU_WzwSbNYzfdb9913cHL948hqMYZXPopv5LJ-gZ\/s72-c\/MBAApr24024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1635820985326352000"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-23T20:27:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-23T20:27:00.134-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Durable Goods, Architecture Billings Index"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiRe6vDWm9d0N6_xBl70IXOgDbNF_8rGXXssmom9LOHd_QkkGio63344wrc1YG1RV80i3uJylha32OaQpbgHKvFRBLORVdbKrTJ1hXYFaV0xJjWyLOwUBFyz4JwGXYOzovfPbBYVVa4_JyL5p7LjIDp0GMbBl74UYmWIABmiX6pWC88RSGVDm-o\/s399\/RatesApr232024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiRe6vDWm9d0N6_xBl70IXOgDbNF_8rGXXssmom9LOHd_QkkGio63344wrc1YG1RV80i3uJylha32OaQpbgHKvFRBLORVdbKrTJ1hXYFaV0xJjWyLOwUBFyz4JwGXYOzovfPbBYVVa4_JyL5p7LjIDp0GMbBl74UYmWIABmiX6pWC88RSGVDm-o\/s320\/RatesApr232024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EDurable Goods Orders\u003C\/b\u003E for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• During the day, The AIA's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1635820985326352000\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1635820985326352000","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1635820985326352000"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1635820985326352000"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/wednesday-durable-goods-architecture.html","title":"Wednesday: Durable Goods, Architecture Billings Index"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiRe6vDWm9d0N6_xBl70IXOgDbNF_8rGXXssmom9LOHd_QkkGio63344wrc1YG1RV80i3uJylha32OaQpbgHKvFRBLORVdbKrTJ1hXYFaV0xJjWyLOwUBFyz4JwGXYOzovfPbBYVVa4_JyL5p7LjIDp0GMbBl74UYmWIABmiX6pWC88RSGVDm-o\/s72-c\/RatesApr232024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1576981247274704200"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-23T16:49:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-23T16:49:34.154-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Last week, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-1bd\"\u003ENAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March; Median House Prices Increased 4.8% Year-over-Year\u003C\/a\u003E, I noted that median prices were up year-over-year (median prices are distorted by the mix).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003ESeasonally prices typically peak in June (closed sales are mostly for contracts signed in April and May).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd seasonally prices usually bottom the following January (contracts signed in November and December).\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe recent surge in prices started mid-year 2020 and ran through Q1 2022\u003C\/b\u003E when mortgage rates started increasing significantly.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is a table of the seasonal percentage increases from January to March, and from March to June (the usual seasonal peak) over the last several years.  The third row is the total percentage increase from January to June.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe last row shows the seasonal decline from June to December.\u0026nbsp; Note: In 2019, prices only declined 3.8% in the 2nd half of the year as mortgage rates declined into the mid-3s (pre-pandemic low was 3.5% on a 30-year mortgage according to Freddie MAC PMMS).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn 2020, prices continued to increase in the 2nd half of the year and didn't peak seasonally until October.\u0026nbsp; And prices only declined slightly in the 2nd half of 2021.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2018\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2019\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2020\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2021\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2022\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2023\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003E2024\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJan to Mar\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E7.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E3.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMar to Jun\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E12.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.1%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9.3%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003ENA\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ETotal\u003Cbr \/\u003EJan to Jun\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E14.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E20.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E16.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E13.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003ENA\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EJun to Dec\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-7.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-3.8%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-2.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-11.4%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-7.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003ENA\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 2024 increase in median prices from January to March was about the same as in 2018 and 2019.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENormally we'd expect median prices to increase 9% to 10% over the next three months, before declining in the 2nd half of the year.\u0026nbsp; With more inventory, the seasonal pattern will be interesting this year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1576981247274704200\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1576981247274704200","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1576981247274704200"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1576981247274704200"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/the-normal-seasonal-pattern-for-median.html","title":"The Normal Seasonal Pattern for Median House Prices"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6711379400507471006"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-23T10:40:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-23T10:40:52.946-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"New Home Sales Increase to 693,000 Annual Rate in March; Median New Home Price is Down 13% from the Peak"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/new-home-sales-increase-to-693000\"\u003ENew Home Sales Increase to 693,000 Annual Rate in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EBrief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrs\/pdf\/newressales.pdf\"\u003Ereports\u003C\/a\u003E New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 693 thousand.  The previous three months were revised down combined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNf7lC5-wI32eB9iPn2G31jVd4kpCMo7_1khw2PQPDEuJjpSYWrEX3PQPhqQ3IxNT0FICnsb6P8dOAP1KvJ_3UgOWR-yxM6ugRPP39P4V83YdrnMFR_8GR47268D28_Ex3pT1ZpfrmTSjFHjTDzVpNmAOwJYfUZGlHcxfnI50sme_d-jQJhmFO\/s940\/NHS20232024Mar.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales 2023 2024\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNf7lC5-wI32eB9iPn2G31jVd4kpCMo7_1khw2PQPDEuJjpSYWrEX3PQPhqQ3IxNT0FICnsb6P8dOAP1KvJ_3UgOWR-yxM6ugRPP39P4V83YdrnMFR_8GR47268D28_Ex3pT1ZpfrmTSjFHjTDzVpNmAOwJYfUZGlHcxfnI50sme_d-jQJhmFO\/s320\/NHS20232024Mar.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in March 2024 were up 8.3% from March 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNote that the median and average price are down due to the mix of homes sold, not because of large price declines.  \u003Cb\u003EHomebuilders are building less expensive homes to keep up volumes.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6711379400507471006\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6711379400507471006","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6711379400507471006"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6711379400507471006"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/new-home-sales-increase-to-693000_23.html","title":"New Home Sales Increase to 693,000 Annual Rate in March; Median New Home Price is Down 13% from the Peak"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNf7lC5-wI32eB9iPn2G31jVd4kpCMo7_1khw2PQPDEuJjpSYWrEX3PQPhqQ3IxNT0FICnsb6P8dOAP1KvJ_3UgOWR-yxM6ugRPP39P4V83YdrnMFR_8GR47268D28_Ex3pT1ZpfrmTSjFHjTDzVpNmAOwJYfUZGlHcxfnI50sme_d-jQJhmFO\/s72-c\/NHS20232024Mar.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4300230701132612959"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-23T10:00:00.026-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-23T10:06:11.010-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"New Home Sales Increase to 693,000 Annual Rate in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrs\/pdf\/newressales.pdf\"\u003Ereports\u003C\/a\u003E New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 693 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous three months were revised down combined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nSales of new single‐family houses in March 2024 were at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000\u003C\/b\u003E, according to\nestimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.  \nThis is 8.8 percent above the revised February rate of 637,000 and is 8.3 percent above the March 2023 estimate of 640,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiSPwR1e10iTSMl5-hIJMGFq0FShcgrJmTJQr4ZRXogMx3QT-Ak_ghhXaVRhwcHs9Y-TT9GOADKyfGIMk4fDLLbrTwQ9sRQafRvolDBjXy-E2SQr_-78xC3FedW0IDSrB0yxJluDbe6QbObERh0TtfJEwLhgH6SJlN7MBOXdhzl8izr35a70pKQ\/s1075\/NHSMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiSPwR1e10iTSMl5-hIJMGFq0FShcgrJmTJQr4ZRXogMx3QT-Ak_ghhXaVRhwcHs9Y-TT9GOADKyfGIMk4fDLLbrTwQ9sRQafRvolDBjXy-E2SQr_-78xC3FedW0IDSrB0yxJluDbe6QbObERh0TtfJEwLhgH6SJlN7MBOXdhzl8izr35a70pKQ\/s320\/NHSMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003ENew home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhy-Tw7MpzVyFQiMrv0ikHOl7oNujeNDuxcvl3GWDZ5MOWZRyYvzJPlhyphenhyphenq2YM80hbzO2tdx272hZMsC0S7P2gEMA99TqK0RHnrAMBfrDQSDKkptG27p4PsI4R89qESb2DiCLFKQ9F6kowx87RSROOqnRSrwcHO5dP1yzAFcCNeH7e5uu1OVp10A\/s1024\/NHSMonthsMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales, Months of Supply\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhy-Tw7MpzVyFQiMrv0ikHOl7oNujeNDuxcvl3GWDZ5MOWZRyYvzJPlhyphenhyphenq2YM80hbzO2tdx272hZMsC0S7P2gEMA99TqK0RHnrAMBfrDQSDKkptG27p4PsI4R89qESb2DiCLFKQ9F6kowx87RSROOqnRSrwcHO5dP1yzAFcCNeH7e5uu1OVp10A\/s320\/NHSMonthsMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe months of supply decreased in March to 8.3 months from 8.8 months in February. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009.  The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\n\u003Ci\u003E\"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 477,000.  This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate.\"\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nSales were above expectations of 670 thousand SAAR, however, sales for the three previous months were revised down, combined.  I'll have more later today."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4300230701132612959\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4300230701132612959","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4300230701132612959"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4300230701132612959"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/new-home-sales-increase-to-693000.html","title":"New Home Sales Increase to 693,000 Annual Rate in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiSPwR1e10iTSMl5-hIJMGFq0FShcgrJmTJQr4ZRXogMx3QT-Ak_ghhXaVRhwcHs9Y-TT9GOADKyfGIMk4fDLLbrTwQ9sRQafRvolDBjXy-E2SQr_-78xC3FedW0IDSrB0yxJluDbe6QbObERh0TtfJEwLhgH6SJlN7MBOXdhzl8izr35a70pKQ\/s72-c\/NHSMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3966277939813950195"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-22T20:08:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-22T20:08:00.138-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: New Home Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjrrtQ1IcxDfURqr-14nYEiINnoFaBvo9SE4Tuli-UJmFn8_oxLRlLufPOr9ql5z0bmVCBbry8-4N1YzJUkvSQ686sf8FgPJGHup8PZtfAh9KEMQyCZZhL0YszkRA6Roi7ZvY02GswYKdYRWvNP1C6FIV3nPXCW-0fwqYOwTL3QZzvwBZ0YFoFt\/s388\/RatesApr222024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjrrtQ1IcxDfURqr-14nYEiINnoFaBvo9SE4Tuli-UJmFn8_oxLRlLufPOr9ql5z0bmVCBbry8-4N1YzJUkvSQ686sf8FgPJGHup8PZtfAh9KEMQyCZZhL0YszkRA6Roi7ZvY02GswYKdYRWvNP1C6FIV3nPXCW-0fwqYOwTL3QZzvwBZ0YFoFt\/s320\/RatesApr222024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003EFrom Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-04222024\"\u003EMortgage Rates Essentially Flat Just Under 5 Month Highs\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage rates began the new week at almost exactly the same levels seen at the end of last week.  There were no major events or economic reports to cause volatility in the underlying bond market, but bonds were able to improve modestly by the end of the day.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003EBy staying near Friday's levels, the average lender is just shy of the highest rates in 5 months.  A top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenario is still in the mid 7% range. [\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/\"\u003E30 year fixed 7.43%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nTuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003ENew Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for March from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 662 thousand in February.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003ERichmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for April."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3966277939813950195\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3966277939813950195","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3966277939813950195"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3966277939813950195"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/tuesday-new-home-sales.html","title":"Tuesday: New Home Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjrrtQ1IcxDfURqr-14nYEiINnoFaBvo9SE4Tuli-UJmFn8_oxLRlLufPOr9ql5z0bmVCBbry8-4N1YzJUkvSQ686sf8FgPJGHup8PZtfAh9KEMQyCZZhL0YszkRA6Roi7ZvY02GswYKdYRWvNP1C6FIV3nPXCW-0fwqYOwTL3QZzvwBZ0YFoFt\/s72-c\/RatesApr222024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5099637445736589442"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-22T16:13:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-22T16:13:25.740-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-and-research\/newsroom\/news\/2024\/04\/22\/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-remains-at-0.22-in-march\"\u003EShare of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains at 0.22% in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that \u003Cb\u003Ethe total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22%\u003C\/b\u003E as of March 31, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, \u003Cb\u003E110,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans\u003C\/b\u003E. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.1 million borrowers since March 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn March 2024, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance remained at 0.12%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance stayed at 0.40%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 2 basis points to 0.31%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“For the past three months, the number of loans in forbearance has held steady,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The current labor market is showing resilience, minimizing the need for mortgage forbearance. However, life events and temporary hardships still happen, regardless of employment conditions, which may explain why we have reached a floor in the forbearance rate.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\n\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAt the end of February, there were about 110,000 homeowners in forbearance plans."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5099637445736589442\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5099637445736589442","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5099637445736589442"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5099637445736589442"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html","title":"MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5089810176591710884"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-22T14:58:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-22T14:58:07.877-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing April 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory up 3.0% Week-over-week, Up 30.9% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos reports that active single-family inventory was up 3.0% week-over-week.\u0026nbsp;Inventory bottomed in mid-February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023,\u003Cb\u003E \u003C\/b\u003Eand inventory is now up 8.5% from the February bottom.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh5MlkW6WUX-Ez3dakQ6VFz0H6pniBZmF2lD3_Z6AP-kj2Hg2vMslodVEhaD3C2Y8h7X7L35k6fnFn1R79qd3E6tqbhm5leiCMQC0IaesElPdy57kppkvEipL4QzK9Ird77yj3B_2xTbu2Y9KHLGdQc-cr08e8VL5UALRQLfKC6cTduOIRWwE9-\/s1176\/AltosApr152024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh5MlkW6WUX-Ez3dakQ6VFz0H6pniBZmF2lD3_Z6AP-kj2Hg2vMslodVEhaD3C2Y8h7X7L35k6fnFn1R79qd3E6tqbhm5leiCMQC0IaesElPdy57kppkvEipL4QzK9Ird77yj3B_2xTbu2Y9KHLGdQc-cr08e8VL5UALRQLfKC6cTduOIRWwE9-\/s320\/AltosApr152024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nAs of April 19th, inventory was at 543 thousand (7-day average), compared to 526 thousand the prior week.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5lvhS3xym0KA57o8VcZqRjsid4OLF7VCM5STdMz7sVN7Kgr4_vfULIt1GxJ8J689Xn0tIZl_PpqUzZTnoYTpePS88Do9tH8uCkZdcuyh45V05BEqHzp1vhFhI_7Jol8K7B8dwh9fd3wozPOKfVAKjyQMCsVxoR6lb8l5bLbIJ3_fAVEK7eEMq\/s1088\/AltosYoYApr222024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5lvhS3xym0KA57o8VcZqRjsid4OLF7VCM5STdMz7sVN7Kgr4_vfULIt1GxJ8J689Xn0tIZl_PpqUzZTnoYTpePS88Do9tH8uCkZdcuyh45V05BEqHzp1vhFhI_7Jol8K7B8dwh9fd3wozPOKfVAKjyQMCsVxoR6lb8l5bLbIJ3_fAVEK7eEMq\/s320\/AltosYoYApr222024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe red line is for 2024.\u0026nbsp; The black line is for 2019.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003ENote that inventory is up almost double from the record low for the same week in 2022\u003C\/b\u003E, but still well below normal levels.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory was up 30.9% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 29.6%), and down 37.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 38.2%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBack in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5089810176591710884\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5089810176591710884","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5089810176591710884"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5089810176591710884"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/housing-april-22nd-weekly-update.html","title":"Housing April 22nd Weekly Update: Inventory up 3.0% Week-over-week, Up 30.9% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh5MlkW6WUX-Ez3dakQ6VFz0H6pniBZmF2lD3_Z6AP-kj2Hg2vMslodVEhaD3C2Y8h7X7L35k6fnFn1R79qd3E6tqbhm5leiCMQC0IaesElPdy57kppkvEipL4QzK9Ird77yj3B_2xTbu2Y9KHLGdQc-cr08e8VL5UALRQLfKC6cTduOIRWwE9-\/s72-c\/AltosApr152024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2397894668260358401"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-22T10:52:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-22T10:52:54.111-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"TSA: Airline Travel about 5% Above 2019 Levels"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The TSA is providing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.tsa.gov\/coronavirus\/passenger-throughput\"\u003Edaily travel numbers\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of April 21st.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhuid22EBLeSvbml9OT9NQiQLh_KbwflcdGlbldIGQZO5ScFBxMPP_Dh4PaIuJGYTzCAfpXu3Eo1qX4YiWHoRdraqbvZ-_PLOd6OiwmXl915lSDQrQ6b1-jZqwvoJ3P_apKxBGL9cp4Gb55bF4CMGSPxuSkqbKvah6jvq8X50ma-y3sVJR8sIOG\/s931\/TSAApr222024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"TSA Traveler Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhuid22EBLeSvbml9OT9NQiQLh_KbwflcdGlbldIGQZO5ScFBxMPP_Dh4PaIuJGYTzCAfpXu3Eo1qX4YiWHoRdraqbvZ-_PLOd6OiwmXl915lSDQrQ6b1-jZqwvoJ3P_apKxBGL9cp4Gb55bF4CMGSPxuSkqbKvah6jvq8X50ma-y3sVJR8sIOG\/s320\/TSAApr222024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA (Blue).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe \u003Cb\u003Ered line is the percent of 2019\u003C\/b\u003E for the seven-day average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAir travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking at about 105% of pre-pandemic levels.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2397894668260358401\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2397894668260358401","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2397894668260358401"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2397894668260358401"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/tsa-airline-travel-about-5-above-2019.html","title":"TSA: Airline Travel about 5% Above 2019 Levels"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhuid22EBLeSvbml9OT9NQiQLh_KbwflcdGlbldIGQZO5ScFBxMPP_Dh4PaIuJGYTzCAfpXu3Eo1qX4YiWHoRdraqbvZ-_PLOd6OiwmXl915lSDQrQ6b1-jZqwvoJ3P_apKxBGL9cp4Gb55bF4CMGSPxuSkqbKvah6jvq8X50ma-y3sVJR8sIOG\/s72-c\/TSAApr222024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2191388870730292064"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-22T08:14:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-22T08:14:07.681-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 1.4% year-over-year in February 2024 SA"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"This is something I check occasionally.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Department of Transportation (DOT) \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.fhwa.dot.gov\/policyinformation\/travel_monitoring\/24febtvt\/\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\n• Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.0% (+4.8 billion vehicle miles) for February 2024 as compared with February 2023. Travel for the month is estimated to be 240.2 billion vehicle miles.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for February 2024 is 274.8 billion miles, \u003Cb\u003Ea +1.4% ( +3.9 billion vehicle miles) change over February 2023\u003C\/b\u003E. It also represents a 0.6% change (1.7 billion vehicle miles) compared with January 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Cumulative Travel for 2024 changed by +0.6% (+2.7 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 487.4 billion vehicle miles of travel.\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEihy41Gg35LrXsVA93aQEKCgco3dEtr05nA2ZmXIEvB-J-xRvbo4ShP0SOqsVEZJuyaMe0so-lDp9yxpBFJQ3-H2uSm8yIXuuWi5la2tcV73cjTGCMuM7J0xor-Mg7y4uKwZ2Ytxhg0k840cgNH1hYpZ4gOER3pE6-lCsKAp207QKMiwcjavzyn\/s1005\/VMFeb2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Miles\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEihy41Gg35LrXsVA93aQEKCgco3dEtr05nA2ZmXIEvB-J-xRvbo4ShP0SOqsVEZJuyaMe0so-lDp9yxpBFJQ3-H2uSm8yIXuuWi5la2tcV73cjTGCMuM7J0xor-Mg7y4uKwZ2Ytxhg0k840cgNH1hYpZ4gOER3pE6-lCsKAp207QKMiwcjavzyn\/s320\/VMFeb2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EMiles driven declined sharply in March 2020, and really collapsed in April 2020.\u0026nbsp; Miles driven are now at pre-pandemic levels."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2191388870730292064\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2191388870730292064","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2191388870730292064"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2191388870730292064"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/dot-vehicle-miles-driven-increased-14.html","title":"DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 1.4% year-over-year in February 2024 SA"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEihy41Gg35LrXsVA93aQEKCgco3dEtr05nA2ZmXIEvB-J-xRvbo4ShP0SOqsVEZJuyaMe0so-lDp9yxpBFJQ3-H2uSm8yIXuuWi5la2tcV73cjTGCMuM7J0xor-Mg7y4uKwZ2Ytxhg0k840cgNH1hYpZ4gOER3pE6-lCsKAp207QKMiwcjavzyn\/s72-c\/VMFeb2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3263678221913714355"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-21T19:14:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-21T19:14:49.133-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/schedule-for-week-of-april-21-2024.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of April 21, 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 are up 17 and DOW futures are up 100 (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOil prices were up over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $83.26\tper barrel and Brent at $86.96 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $78, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices are up year-over-year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $3.64 per gallon.  A year ago, prices were at $3.67 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.03 year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3263678221913714355\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3263678221913714355","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3263678221913714355"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3263678221913714355"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/sunday-night-futures_21.html","title":"Sunday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3025741914930480898"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-21T09:40:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-21T09:40:35.235-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"When Do Market Participants Expect the Fed to Cut Rates?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"As of December 2023, \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20231213.htm\"\u003Elooking at the \"dot plot\"\u003C\/a\u003E, most FOMC participants expected between 2 and 4 rate cuts in 2024:\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 220px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"2\"\u003EAs of Dec 2023 Meeting\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E25 bp Rate Cuts\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EFOMC\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMembers\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENo Change\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOne Rate Cut\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ETwo Rate Cuts\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EThree Rate Cuts\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFour Rate Cuts\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E4\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EMore than Four\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs of the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20240320.htm\"\u003EMarch 2024 meeting\u003C\/a\u003E, FOMC participants were down to 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2024:\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 220px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"2\"\u003EAs of Mar 2024 Meeting\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E25 bp Rate Cuts\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EFOMC\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMembers\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENo Change\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EOne Rate Cut\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ETwo Rate Cuts\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EThree Rate Cuts\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EFour Rate Cuts\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \n\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\n\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EMost market participants expect between 1 and 2 rate cuts this year, with the first cut in September.\u0026nbsp; Here are a couple analyst views:\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nFrom BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003E[W]e revised our Fed forecasts in response to the upside surprise in the March \ninflation data. \u003Cb\u003EWe now expect the Fed to start cutting in December\u003C\/b\u003E rather than June, and \nwe still think cuts will proceed at a quarterly cadence. Importantly, we did not simply \npush our projected cutting cycle out by two quarters. We removed the June and \nSeptember 2024 cuts entirely from our forecast, raising the terminal rate by 50bp to \n3.5-3.75%.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman Sachs: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe FOMC was already narrowly divided on its three-cut baseline for 2024, and we think it will now need to see the string of three firmer inflation prints from January to March balanced by a series of softer prints in subsequent months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nWe continue to expect cuts at a quarterly pace after July\u003C\/b\u003E, which now implies two cuts in 2024 in July and November.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3025741914930480898\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3025741914930480898","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3025741914930480898"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3025741914930480898"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/when-do-market-participants-expect-fed.html","title":"When Do Market Participants Expect the Fed to Cut Rates?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7725959164346993982"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-20T14:11:00.016-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-20T14:11:00.331-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/single-family-starts-up-22-year-over-dd6\"\u003ESingle Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-1bd\"\u003ENAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nmhc-apartment-market-continues-to-8be\"\u003ENMHC: \"Apartment Market Continues to Loosen\"\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home-2d9\"\u003E4th Look at Local Housing Markets in March; California Home Sales Down 4.4% YoY in March\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-3cd\"\u003ELawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/3rd-look-at-local-housing-markets-421\"\u003E3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7725959164346993982\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7725959164346993982","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7725959164346993982"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7725959164346993982"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this_0335517092.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1777345757685689090"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-20T08:11:00.059-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-20T08:11:00.250-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of April 21, 2024"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q1 GDP, March New Home sales and March Personal Income and Outlays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor manufacturing, the April Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, April 22nd  -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EChicago Fed National Activity Index\u003C\/b\u003E for March.  This is a composite index of other data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, April 23rd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGEg6KEIoHryJzZ_Ptay0Ngb1v2Yrp5soh7iayGAZzw-aUXov3m7rwaOwWPzvAgMnYp4QyOFGzIBMWsF6zmULwF7xu8Ubzh_cwicvMG2buWIUGdgEJLt8OPns2JTVthS6CDHukYwKAyyX599SyPLTCzLU4XlCmeqWMt5z7cCsZt_KmIwfbVehI\/s1076\/NHSFeb2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGEg6KEIoHryJzZ_Ptay0Ngb1v2Yrp5soh7iayGAZzw-aUXov3m7rwaOwWPzvAgMnYp4QyOFGzIBMWsF6zmULwF7xu8Ubzh_cwicvMG2buWIUGdgEJLt8OPns2JTVthS6CDHukYwKAyyX599SyPLTCzLU4XlCmeqWMt5z7cCsZt_KmIwfbVehI\/s320\/NHSFeb2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003ENew Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for March from the Census Bureau. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 662 thousand in February.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003ERichmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for April.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u0026nbsp;  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, April 24th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EDurable Goods Orders\u003C\/b\u003E for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nDuring the day: The AIA's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, April 25th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, down from 212 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EGross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024\u003C\/b\u003E (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q1, down from 3.4% in Q4.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EPending Home Sales Index\u003C\/b\u003E for March.  The consensus is for a 2.0% decrease in the index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n11:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EKansas City Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for April.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E   \n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, April 26th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EPersonal Income and Outlays, March 2024\u003C\/b\u003E.  The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending.  And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.\u0026nbsp; PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 77.9.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1777345757685689090\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1777345757685689090","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1777345757685689090"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1777345757685689090"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/schedule-for-week-of-april-21-2024.html","title":"Schedule for Week of April 21, 2024"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiGEg6KEIoHryJzZ_Ptay0Ngb1v2Yrp5soh7iayGAZzw-aUXov3m7rwaOwWPzvAgMnYp4QyOFGzIBMWsF6zmULwF7xu8Ubzh_cwicvMG2buWIUGdgEJLt8OPns2JTVthS6CDHukYwKAyyX599SyPLTCzLU4XlCmeqWMt5z7cCsZt_KmIwfbVehI\/s72-c\/NHSFeb2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8755274960823202396"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-19T19:11:00.033-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-19T19:11:00.136-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"April 19th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Decreased"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj4Tb09hyphenhyphenHzkGxgcV_feUJMPHeLrZTntMbnoxUG9amtxnyThJGh6TW_M8ATYWFLbxsYkDYQ9KSDBpycjnT7Q19w8GvUm1L9Od4Ab-IaiEgnICLVhXj5wm1vQ2EFdm64P5wJr4LZmAH5FUKIhXHzg5NWb1UWdegOHFZViUB1gj1aKofQfEzGTi6C\/s398\/RatesApr192024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj4Tb09hyphenhyphenHzkGxgcV_feUJMPHeLrZTntMbnoxUG9amtxnyThJGh6TW_M8ATYWFLbxsYkDYQ9KSDBpycjnT7Q19w8GvUm1L9Od4Ab-IaiEgnICLVhXj5wm1vQ2EFdm64P5wJr4LZmAH5FUKIhXHzg5NWb1UWdegOHFZViUB1gj1aKofQfEzGTi6C\/s320\/RatesApr192024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIt is likely that we will see pandemic lows for hospitalizations and deaths in the next several weeks.\u0026nbsp; That is welcome news!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHospitalizations have declined significantly from the winter high of 30,027 but are still slightly above the low of 5,386 last year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E5,899\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E6,686\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E779\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E982\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003EWeekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgwZxgXsBaRYRPt-QBny0ddxsyNYOBLyNq_HMuXwXhkzLZpxQUDs_qBJM8Dd-v3eTRvuo2aSB0tcpxA7C_-c8WgdmactWeMbCK4YHVGgh4mN_GKaNHAQA_1IlCeAqooSZLfBeoCGpnCIjNtjjp_p4kOqqZ-_3CKlm0oyIp0BXnhlv0CkN1zOhS0\/s1285\/COVIDApr192024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgwZxgXsBaRYRPt-QBny0ddxsyNYOBLyNq_HMuXwXhkzLZpxQUDs_qBJM8Dd-v3eTRvuo2aSB0tcpxA7C_-c8WgdmactWeMbCK4YHVGgh4mN_GKaNHAQA_1IlCeAqooSZLfBeoCGpnCIjNtjjp_p4kOqqZ-_3CKlm0oyIp0BXnhlv0CkN1zOhS0\/s320\/COVIDApr192024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWeekly deaths have declined sharply from the recent peak of 2,558 but are still 50% above the low of 490 last July.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAnd here is a graph I'm following concerning\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nwss\/rv\/COVID19-nationaltrend.html\"\u003ECOVID in wastewater\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;as of April 18th:\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhi3HQMaobzq1AcVO9SLpanbwcj4W-q_OqveRZUUauCb2xrCaomRg5MN81dz1m-i3pBdZGNN26QawrWPTkdNXKuap31vAS6USgX7vM56U-qA-rDjmE68FjZROUmrUQ00AfE3ZTuWZsQLCr0AaEDluadbc5eDbyHQL5fUXGf27PVQN-0MeY0-oVs\/s983\/COVIDWasteApr192024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Wastewater\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhi3HQMaobzq1AcVO9SLpanbwcj4W-q_OqveRZUUauCb2xrCaomRg5MN81dz1m-i3pBdZGNN26QawrWPTkdNXKuap31vAS6USgX7vM56U-qA-rDjmE68FjZROUmrUQ00AfE3ZTuWZsQLCr0AaEDluadbc5eDbyHQL5fUXGf27PVQN-0MeY0-oVs\/s320\/COVIDWasteApr192024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003EThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENationally, COVID in wastewater is now off close to 90% from the holiday peak at the end of December, and that suggests weekly hospitalizations and deaths will continue to decline.\u003C\/div\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8755274960823202396\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8755274960823202396","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8755274960823202396"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8755274960823202396"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/april-19th-covid-update-weekly-deaths.html","title":"April 19th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Decreased"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEj4Tb09hyphenhyphenHzkGxgcV_feUJMPHeLrZTntMbnoxUG9amtxnyThJGh6TW_M8ATYWFLbxsYkDYQ9KSDBpycjnT7Q19w8GvUm1L9Od4Ab-IaiEgnICLVhXj5wm1vQ2EFdm64P5wJr4LZmAH5FUKIhXHzg5NWb1UWdegOHFZViUB1gj1aKofQfEzGTi6C\/s72-c\/RatesApr192024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9043484194712882059"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-19T11:31:00.012-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-19T11:31:00.128-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q1 GDP Tracking: Movin' on Up"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From BofA: \u003Cblockquote\u003ESince our update last week, \u003Cb\u003E1Q GDP tracking is up two-tenths to 2.1% q\/q saar\u003C\/b\u003E. [Apr 19th estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe left our \u003Cb\u003EQ1 GDP forecast unchanged at +3.1% (qoq ar)\u003C\/b\u003E and our domestic final sales forecast also unchanged at +3.1% (qoq ar). [Apr 18th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for \u003Cb\u003Ereal GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on April 16, up from 2.8 percent on April 15. [April 16th estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9043484194712882059\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9043484194712882059","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9043484194712882059"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9043484194712882059"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/q1-gdp-tracking-movin-on-up.html","title":"Q1 GDP Tracking: Movin' on Up"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3074725252574583682"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-19T08:10:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-19T08:10:56.410-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NMHC: \"Apartment Market Continues to Loosen\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nmhc-apartment-market-continues-to-8be\"\u003ENMHC: \"Apartment Market Continues to Loosen\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EFrom the NMHC: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nmhc.org\/news\/press-release\/2024\/apartment-market-continues-to-loosen-amidst-worsening-financing-conditions\/\"\u003EApartment Market Continues to Loosen Amidst Worsening Financing Conditions\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EApartment market conditions continued to weaken in the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nmhc.org\/research-insight\/quarterly-survey\/\"\u003ENational Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC’s) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions\u003C\/a\u003E for April 2024. With the exception of Sales Volume (52), which turned positive this quarter, the Market Tightness (41), Equity Financing (49), and Debt Financing (44) indexes all came in below the breakeven level (50).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\"[\u003Cb\u003ET]he U.S. apartment market continues to absorb historic levels of new supply, resulting in rising vacancy rates and decreasing rent growth.\u003C\/b\u003E”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjkiv654Pbl_9UTioKXP9O46oUswx9FFoQV0AQS6odm0pXSSeHVh8uSnTBDu39n0lcxj6h_ZH4vdLGziwbknlucnbAjA_UruooqexwRWYzS7IXT7Z0cN7VYOlREgJaI78r8uYzUVnlUgkoglYD3keH1fFIIo2z25-pjkUAeNDhfB-teAB9hAXWK\/s961\/NMHCApr2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"NMHC Apartment Indx\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjkiv654Pbl_9UTioKXP9O46oUswx9FFoQV0AQS6odm0pXSSeHVh8uSnTBDu39n0lcxj6h_ZH4vdLGziwbknlucnbAjA_UruooqexwRWYzS7IXT7Z0cN7VYOlREgJaI78r8uYzUVnlUgkoglYD3keH1fFIIo2z25-pjkUAeNDhfB-teAB9hAXWK\/s320\/NMHCApr2024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EThe Market Tightness Index\u003C\/b\u003E came in at 41 this quarter – below the breakeven level (50) – indicating looser market conditions for the seventh consecutive quarter. That said, a plurality of respondents (42%) thought market conditions were unchanged compared to three months ago, while 37% thought markets have become looser. Twenty percent of respondents reported tighter markets than three months ago, up from 5% in January.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe quarterly index increased to 41 in April from 23 in January. Any reading below 50 indicates looser conditions from the previous quarter.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis index has been an excellent leading indicator for rents and vacancy rates, and this suggests higher vacancy rates and a further weakness in asking rents. This is the \u003Cb\u003Eseventh consecutive quarter with looser conditions\u003C\/b\u003E than the previous quarter.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3074725252574583682\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3074725252574583682","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3074725252574583682"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3074725252574583682"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/nmhc-apartment-market-continues-to.html","title":"NMHC: \"Apartment Market Continues to Loosen\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjkiv654Pbl_9UTioKXP9O46oUswx9FFoQV0AQS6odm0pXSSeHVh8uSnTBDu39n0lcxj6h_ZH4vdLGziwbknlucnbAjA_UruooqexwRWYzS7IXT7Z0cN7VYOlREgJaI78r8uYzUVnlUgkoglYD3keH1fFIIo2z25-pjkUAeNDhfB-teAB9hAXWK\/s72-c\/NMHCApr2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3374693110366321170"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-18T18:11:00.013-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-18T18:11:00.133-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 2.8% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom STR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/str.com\/press-release\/us-hotel-results-week-ending-13-april\"\u003EU.S. hotel results for week ending 13 April\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EHelped by the total solar eclipse, U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 April. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7-13 April 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 65.8% (+2.8%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.20 (+2.9%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.48 (+5.8%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhz9uRcbh_P-lRPps37qkNFS4p29Cg5T1lTLqqjJla0-SBQeXwFOI3Hcbjz31lf1ZduZuhsrIJjYbIl15L1OmzbcoPaW8efOYGwrzzQNC1qKD_ikyimxhPC-I1wj9aMfq0Hsu-UjeTwAkRy5U17IK4Yeak8W5m3geZvq025n5vCB4Ft4Kc5R1RJ\/s1033\/HotelApr182024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhz9uRcbh_P-lRPps37qkNFS4p29Cg5T1lTLqqjJla0-SBQeXwFOI3Hcbjz31lf1ZduZuhsrIJjYbIl15L1OmzbcoPaW8efOYGwrzzQNC1qKD_ikyimxhPC-I1wj9aMfq0Hsu-UjeTwAkRy5U17IK4Yeak8W5m3geZvq025n5vCB4Ft4Kc5R1RJ\/s320\/HotelApr182024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.\u0026nbsp; Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and also at the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate will move mostly sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3374693110366321170\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3374693110366321170","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3374693110366321170"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3374693110366321170"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/hotels-occupancy-rate-increased-28-year.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 2.8% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhz9uRcbh_P-lRPps37qkNFS4p29Cg5T1lTLqqjJla0-SBQeXwFOI3Hcbjz31lf1ZduZuhsrIJjYbIl15L1OmzbcoPaW8efOYGwrzzQNC1qKD_ikyimxhPC-I1wj9aMfq0Hsu-UjeTwAkRy5U17IK4Yeak8W5m3geZvq025n5vCB4Ft4Kc5R1RJ\/s72-c\/HotelApr182024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8515526266483596753"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-18T14:01:00.018-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-18T14:01:00.150-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 29.1% YoY; New Listings Up 7.2% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003EWhat this means:\u003C\/b\u003E On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings.  On a monthly basis, they report total inventory.  For March, Realtor.com \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/march-2024-data\/\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E inventory was up 23.5% YoY, but still down almost 38% compared to March 2017 to 2019 levels.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u0026nbsp;Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 29.1% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003ERealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-apr-13-2024\/\"\u003EWeekly Housing Trends View—Data Week Ending April 13, 2024\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EActive inventory increased, with for-sale homes 29.1% above year-ago levels. \u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor the 23rd week in a row, there were more homes listed for sale compared with the previous year, giving homebuyers a wider selection to choose from. However, this week’s increase was not as high as the 30.4% growth seen last week, possibly suggesting a slowdown in inventory growth. This could be due to the continued impact of high mortgage rates, which might be discouraging some sellers from listing their homes. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n• \u003Cb\u003ENew listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 7.2% from one year ago.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFollowing some ups and downs around Easter, sellers kept putting homes on the market at a faster rate compared with last year, with a 7.2% increase in newly listed homes. However, this growth rate is slower than what we’ve seen since early February. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhNTmDhr4-zyKokZvrOiisthw9wSihCEFIkjqoXoATThFo7wqK0kbYUzJmnAQwco5wH82GMfK1eKSP5atxwQUYY0F_6Ti8e07qbrcDmi_dOeLv4rzJn1-mdBRoEhKMWCenQQbNgUDW9_Iu5NF2FYeuB7Ir5OWBHO-kuIm0xMAeZLCRvVjvstVk9\/s1014\/RealtorApr182024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Realtor YoY Active Listings\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhNTmDhr4-zyKokZvrOiisthw9wSihCEFIkjqoXoATThFo7wqK0kbYUzJmnAQwco5wH82GMfK1eKSP5atxwQUYY0F_6Ti8e07qbrcDmi_dOeLv4rzJn1-mdBRoEhKMWCenQQbNgUDW9_Iu5NF2FYeuB7Ir5OWBHO-kuIm0xMAeZLCRvVjvstVk9\/s320\/RealtorApr182024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003Erealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EInventory was up year-over-year for the 23rd consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory is still historically very low.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENew listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels although increasing.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E \u003C\/div\u003E "},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8515526266483596753\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8515526266483596753","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8515526266483596753"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8515526266483596753"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/realtorcom-reports-active-inventory-up_0725327745.html","title":"Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 29.1% YoY; New Listings Up 7.2% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhNTmDhr4-zyKokZvrOiisthw9wSihCEFIkjqoXoATThFo7wqK0kbYUzJmnAQwco5wH82GMfK1eKSP5atxwQUYY0F_6Ti8e07qbrcDmi_dOeLv4rzJn1-mdBRoEhKMWCenQQbNgUDW9_Iu5NF2FYeuB7Ir5OWBHO-kuIm0xMAeZLCRvVjvstVk9\/s72-c\/RealtorApr182024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5970677735652772623"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-18T10:40:00.011-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-18T10:45:15.279-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March; Median House Prices Increased 4.8% Year-over-Year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-1bd\"\u003ENAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiKvl5-HB1mASxZqBdZvDao4rS3hJfn7i8SZ4k8ohHM_5NOX5frRcP1HJt-CSbZKRBj4N3W_GyFtHYHJYN4pLGrhfWAyLaC2U8h4GBb6Idid7PiKzA1F1E1Y4QnTXa73HhyaGCn4YkdoWlpvWZlvNzz1v9xj0xvBuLYxRLjnP_4V5wX4O84a2Gz\/s943\/EHS20232024Mar.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales Year-over-year\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiKvl5-HB1mASxZqBdZvDao4rS3hJfn7i8SZ4k8ohHM_5NOX5frRcP1HJt-CSbZKRBj4N3W_GyFtHYHJYN4pLGrhfWAyLaC2U8h4GBb6Idid7PiKzA1F1E1Y4QnTXa73HhyaGCn4YkdoWlpvWZlvNzz1v9xj0xvBuLYxRLjnP_4V5wX4O84a2Gz\/s320\/EHS20232024Mar.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ESales declined 3.7% year-over-year compared to March 2023. \u003Cb\u003EThis was the thirty-first consecutive month with sales down year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5970677735652772623\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5970677735652772623","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5970677735652772623"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5970677735652772623"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to_18.html","title":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March; Median House Prices Increased 4.8% Year-over-Year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiKvl5-HB1mASxZqBdZvDao4rS3hJfn7i8SZ4k8ohHM_5NOX5frRcP1HJt-CSbZKRBj4N3W_GyFtHYHJYN4pLGrhfWAyLaC2U8h4GBb6Idid7PiKzA1F1E1Y4QnTXa73HhyaGCn4YkdoWlpvWZlvNzz1v9xj0xvBuLYxRLjnP_4V5wX4O84a2Gz\/s72-c\/EHS20232024Mar.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1388314819521098588"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-18T10:00:00.046-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-18T10:22:24.492-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/existing-home-sales-descended-4-3-in-march\"\u003EExisting-Home Sales Descended 4.3% in March\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EExisting-home sales slipped in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Midwest, South and West, but rose in the Northeast for the first time since November 2023. Year-over-year, sales decreased in all regions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nTotal existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 4.3% from February to a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million in March\u003C\/b\u003E. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.7% (down from 4.35 million in March 2023).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal housing inventory registered at the end of March was 1.11 million units, up 4.7% from February and 14.4% from one year ago (970,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.9 months in February and 2.7 months in March 2023.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgw-AMDLO4pfEdW3s1iwSq_XydWrXYFeqWt0ORCkV-ILHUJEgTD_RNQ0UqBPgCPo19GSrxl4VMzf3djxEgK_daYch8DHMq9XUvPI2pBfO7jS0TT3fWeWbbyq5LCSYIDyM_ISFwD7H9rwP_NNUFOGp4BcwkDCHtlRa-UBRdMZPxwO1jYeFb97daI\/s1078\/EHSMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgw-AMDLO4pfEdW3s1iwSq_XydWrXYFeqWt0ORCkV-ILHUJEgTD_RNQ0UqBPgCPo19GSrxl4VMzf3djxEgK_daYch8DHMq9XUvPI2pBfO7jS0TT3fWeWbbyq5LCSYIDyM_ISFwD7H9rwP_NNUFOGp4BcwkDCHtlRa-UBRdMZPxwO1jYeFb97daI\/s320\/EHSMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994. \u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSales in March (4.19 million SAAR)\u0026nbsp;were down 4.3% from the previous month and were 3.7% below the March 2023 sales rate.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgkAHYUAgeQHg6punmSdMnGF5NkNTVMhkMqk2-BLe3nZlZXLrB-MYusVOs86ljrbv2JfTZRdrV7WWzKDetUqlmj3kaUU-pos7ESnNR11iHRkAOLuEemc6MbGyinlrhI_MC3fYPvttSfLDNhhEWy4mgeRjnX01gp5c5A_SYruutgGQpmmfy15-g-\/s1110\/EHSInvMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgkAHYUAgeQHg6punmSdMnGF5NkNTVMhkMqk2-BLe3nZlZXLrB-MYusVOs86ljrbv2JfTZRdrV7WWzKDetUqlmj3kaUU-pos7ESnNR11iHRkAOLuEemc6MbGyinlrhI_MC3fYPvttSfLDNhhEWy4mgeRjnX01gp5c5A_SYruutgGQpmmfy15-g-\/s320\/EHSInvMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.11 million in March from 1.06 million the previous month.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHeadline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe\u0026nbsp;last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgp7giQFYxlpVs7rHA6rb8Zt6JJD70_spCnferiytH0iOi0TnWYPET89hswlvZ8niCNuuzEcrYCqAfyTMzd51qE-XYkJWji9KBGYKQI9oawdNgjQDV_FPArt8-ANiT7rZsy5Oupi6sB__odd1OK1caiP0SVM0BnlCc6QQfRHi8W__uveMsNvUBX\/s1070\/EHSInvYoYMar2024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgp7giQFYxlpVs7rHA6rb8Zt6JJD70_spCnferiytH0iOi0TnWYPET89hswlvZ8niCNuuzEcrYCqAfyTMzd51qE-XYkJWji9KBGYKQI9oawdNgjQDV_FPArt8-ANiT7rZsy5Oupi6sB__odd1OK1caiP0SVM0BnlCc6QQfRHi8W__uveMsNvUBX\/s320\/EHSInvYoYMar2024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E Inventory was up 14.4% year-over-year (blue) in March compared to March 2023. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMonths of supply (red) increased to 3.2 months in March from 2.9 months the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was at the consensus forecast.\u0026nbsp; I'll have more later.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1388314819521098588\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1388314819521098588","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1388314819521098588"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1388314819521098588"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to.html","title":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgw-AMDLO4pfEdW3s1iwSq_XydWrXYFeqWt0ORCkV-ILHUJEgTD_RNQ0UqBPgCPo19GSrxl4VMzf3djxEgK_daYch8DHMq9XUvPI2pBfO7jS0TT3fWeWbbyq5LCSYIDyM_ISFwD7H9rwP_NNUFOGp4BcwkDCHtlRa-UBRdMZPxwO1jYeFb97daI\/s72-c\/EHSMar2024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2915096995169324155"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-18T08:30:00.011-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-18T08:32:42.736-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Unchanged at 212,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nIn the week ending April 13, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000\u003C\/b\u003E, unchanged from the \nprevious week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week \nmoving average was 214,500, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was \nrevised up by 250 from 214,250 to 214,500. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgadlQwxasIvDsWQRzdXYqs9trQt4f_oNnrZjIEYGYmiRqUd2PoFVXfreyC51Sj4YiulFnXEA7RYBn37LY8Z9anvScEMi-bUXsv1suFHgI7A44LDmmEh_xaUUhEIYCdUPsIErxdPejVvhJKYwXb_3aSG-99RyAhcq4Wx7F6bJhflo4y1lV7JIsK\/s1074\/WeeklyClaimsApr182024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgadlQwxasIvDsWQRzdXYqs9trQt4f_oNnrZjIEYGYmiRqUd2PoFVXfreyC51Sj4YiulFnXEA7RYBn37LY8Z9anvScEMi-bUXsv1suFHgI7A44LDmmEh_xaUUhEIYCdUPsIErxdPejVvhJKYwXb_3aSG-99RyAhcq4Wx7F6bJhflo4y1lV7JIsK\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsApr182024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 214,500.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWeekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2915096995169324155\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2915096995169324155","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2915096995169324155"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2915096995169324155"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_18.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Unchanged at 212,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgadlQwxasIvDsWQRzdXYqs9trQt4f_oNnrZjIEYGYmiRqUd2PoFVXfreyC51Sj4YiulFnXEA7RYBn37LY8Z9anvScEMi-bUXsv1suFHgI7A44LDmmEh_xaUUhEIYCdUPsIErxdPejVvhJKYwXb_3aSG-99RyAhcq4Wx7F6bJhflo4y1lV7JIsK\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsApr182024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3151871515995984056"},"published":{"$t":"2024-04-17T20:23:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-04-17T20:23:00.139-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiqCjli_gj1694iw8zi4kBGo__9Qx6VGmf_0sT6gb3zNNrP7MrlhrF6PSepyJzxd03d-ytq0Lf2I7wuFTvSC9_3mXHPUvzHSvmAfJFBmgmcE86cxnYTES9ScUIbRC8u6vvyTIpxELUh3FLzj2_nPaUgdqaYTUODsQKyCYWAVc3zrMK4Qjmvr-QP\/s394\/RatesApr172024.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiqCjli_gj1694iw8zi4kBGo__9Qx6VGmf_0sT6gb3zNNrP7MrlhrF6PSepyJzxd03d-ytq0Lf2I7wuFTvSC9_3mXHPUvzHSvmAfJFBmgmcE86cxnYTES9ScUIbRC8u6vvyTIpxELUh3FLzj2_nPaUgdqaYTUODsQKyCYWAVc3zrMK4Qjmvr-QP\/s320\/RatesApr172024.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 211 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 8:30 AM, the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for April.  The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 3.2.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EExisting Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.38 million."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3151871515995984056\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3151871515995984056","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3151871515995984056"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3151871515995984056"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/04\/thursday-unemployment-claims-philly-fed.html","title":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiqCjli_gj1694iw8zi4kBGo__9Qx6VGmf_0sT6gb3zNNrP7MrlhrF6PSepyJzxd03d-ytq0Lf2I7wuFTvSC9_3mXHPUvzHSvmAfJFBmgmcE86cxnYTES9ScUIbRC8u6vvyTIpxELUh3FLzj2_nPaUgdqaYTUODsQKyCYWAVc3zrMK4Qjmvr-QP\/s72-c\/RatesApr172024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});