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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"26864"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4882595643860691909"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-20T18:59:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-20T19:14:01.869-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 20 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Bloomberg on the Covid Tracking Project: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2020-11-20\/covid-tracking-project-volunteers-step-up-as-u-s-fails-during-pandemic\"\u003EData Heroes of Covid Tracking Project Are Still Filling U.S. Government Void\u003C\/a\u003E.  Awesome work!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,582,323 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 192,805 positive tests.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOver 23,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-E1Wm0wcpql4\/X7hX7O44GuI\/AAAAAAAA3HU\/MyLxJ98MPc8CrKI6eMFSxZQhFqTCwcnfQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1160\/COVIDNov202020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day and Percent Positive\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-E1Wm0wcpql4\/X7hX7O44GuI\/AAAAAAAA3HU\/MyLxJ98MPc8CrKI6eMFSxZQhFqTCwcnfQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov202020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.2% (red line is 7 day average).\u0026nbsp; The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-YZf_jmAKsBg\/X7hbfemgy_I\/AAAAAAAA3Hk\/s5SqvOPqYNQhx_Z5amxseyUpP8kCmpfEwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1184\/COVIDCasesNov202020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-YZf_jmAKsBg\/X7hbfemgy_I\/AAAAAAAA3Hk\/s5SqvOPqYNQhx_Z5amxseyUpP8kCmpfEwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov202020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• 7-day average cases are at a new record.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• 7-day average deaths at highest level since May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  • Record Hospitalizations."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4882595643860691909\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4882595643860691909","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4882595643860691909"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4882595643860691909"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-20-covid-19-test-results.html","title":"November 20 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-E1Wm0wcpql4\/X7hX7O44GuI\/AAAAAAAA3HU\/MyLxJ98MPc8CrKI6eMFSxZQhFqTCwcnfQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov202020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-70731641827107952"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-20T14:32:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-20T14:32:04.209-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Along with the monthly housing starts for October this week, the Census Bureau released \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/quarterly_starts_completions.pdf\"\u003EQuarterly Starts by Purpose and Design\u003C\/a\u003E through Q3 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the NSA quarterly intent for four start categories since 1975: single family built for sale, owner built (includes contractor built for owner), starts built for rent, and condos built for sale.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3PMEh5aJgq0\/X7gYt6jsyuI\/AAAAAAAA3HM\/PVWpDvvgrBAJpY4aWZONcmQwmmZRRj4JgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1041\/StartsIntentQ32020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New Home Sales and Housing Starts by Intent\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3PMEh5aJgq0\/X7gYt6jsyuI\/AAAAAAAA3HM\/PVWpDvvgrBAJpY4aWZONcmQwmmZRRj4JgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/StartsIntentQ32020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESingle family starts built for sale (red) were up 23.3% in Q3 2020 compared to Q3 2019. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOwner built starts (orange) were down 7.1% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECondos built for sale decreased, and are still low.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 'units built for rent' (blue) and were up 6.4% in Q3 2020 compared to Q3 2019.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe housing boom has been mostly in single family homes.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/70731641827107952\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=70731641827107952","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/70731641827107952"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/70731641827107952"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/quarterly-starts-by-purpose-and-design.html","title":"Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3PMEh5aJgq0\/X7gYt6jsyuI\/AAAAAAAA3HM\/PVWpDvvgrBAJpY4aWZONcmQwmmZRRj4JgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/StartsIntentQ32020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4678547676835358674"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-20T11:17:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-20T11:17:16.651-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q4 GDP Forecasts"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Most economists are revisiting their Q4 forecasts, and many are not releasing weekly updates.\u0026nbsp; In their previous forecasts, many assumed some additional disaster relief in Q4, and many underestimated the current surge in COVID.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EDepending on further delays in disaster relief, and the impact of the current COVID surge, we might see some significant Q4 GDP downgrades soon.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIt appears activity was solid in October, and that would suggest PCE growth of close to 4% in Q4, even if November and December see no month-over-month growth.\u0026nbsp; No one expects a lockdown like at the end of March and in April, but it is possible that activity will decline in December.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIt is also possible Q1 will start very weak.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Merrill Lynch economists noted this morning:\u0026nbsp;\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"We estimate that the expiration of federal UI programs—PUA and PEUC—alone could be a drag of 1.5pp in 1Q. Cutoff of other provisions will be added headwinds at the start of the year.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe high level of uncertainty over the next few months makes forecasting extremely difficult.   \u003Cb\u003EThe automated approaches (below) do not capture this uncertainty\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E     From the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/policy\/nowcast.html\"\u003ENY Fed Nowcasting Report\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at \u003Cb\u003E2.86% for 2020:Q4\u003C\/b\u003E. [Nov 20 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the \u003Cb\u003Efourth quarter of 2020 is 5.6 percent on November 18\u003C\/b\u003E, up from 5.4 percent on November 17.  [Nov 18 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EIt is also important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).\u0026nbsp; A 3.3% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, is about 0.8% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 2.7% from Q4 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph illustrates this decline.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jpee0g7ctTA\/X6GvWj77kFI\/AAAAAAAA23k\/LnLIohj4XEonn8TF0jp_ZC5HuJ2Ske8bgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1013\/GDPForecast33Q42020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Recession Measure, GDP\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jpee0g7ctTA\/X6GvWj77kFI\/AAAAAAAA23k\/LnLIohj4XEonn8TF0jp_ZC5HuJ2Ske8bgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/GDPForecast33Q42020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is through Q3 2020, and real GDP is currently off 3.5% from the previous peak.\u0026nbsp; For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe black arrow shows what a 3.3% annualized increase in real GDP would look like in Q4.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4678547676835358674\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4678547676835358674","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4678547676835358674"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4678547676835358674"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/q4-gdp-forecasts.html","title":"Q4 GDP Forecasts"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jpee0g7ctTA\/X6GvWj77kFI\/AAAAAAAA23k\/LnLIohj4XEonn8TF0jp_ZC5HuJ2Ske8bgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/GDPForecast33Q42020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1857005187634782840"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-20T10:14:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-20T10:14:00.956-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: October Unemployment rates down in 37 States, Higher in 8 States"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the BLS: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/laus.nr0.htm\"\u003ERegional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EUnemployment rates were lower in October in 37 states and the District of Columbia, higher in 8 states, and stable in 5 states\u003C\/b\u003E, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-seven states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier and three states had little or no change. The national unemployment rate declined by 1.0 percentage point over the month to 6.9 percent but was 3.3 points higher than in October 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003ENonfarm payroll employment increased in 32 states, decreased in 2 states, and was essentially unchanged in 16 states and the District of Columbia in October 2020. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 48 states and the District and was essentially unchanged in 2 states.\u003Cbr \/\u003E... \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHawaii had the highest unemployment rate in October, 14.3 percent, followed by Nevada, 12.0 percent\u003C\/b\u003E. Nebraska and Vermont had the lowest rates, 3.0 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. \u003C\/blockquote\u003EHawaii and Nevada are being impacted by the lack of tourism."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1857005187634782840\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1857005187634782840","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1857005187634782840"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1857005187634782840"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/bls-october-unemployment-rates-down-in.html","title":"BLS: October Unemployment rates down in 37 States, Higher in 8 States"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2656062164205935964"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-20T09:17:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-20T09:17:03.732-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of November 17th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom Black Knight:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/blog-posts\/forbearances-tick-up-slightly-after-two-week-decline\/\"\u003EForbearances Tick Up After Two-Week Decline\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAfter falling by 273,000 (9 percent) over the past two weeks, forbearance volumes edged slightly upward this week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThis week’s rise was a result of an increase of 15,000 forbearances among FHA\/VA loans, along with 14,000 and 1,000 additional loans in forbearance among private label securities\/bank portfolios and the GSEs, respectively.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  Despite these mild increases, there is still good news for the mortgage servicing market – the number of active forbearances remains down 7 percent from the same time in October. \u003Cb\u003EAs of Nov. 17, there are 2.77 million active forbearances nationwide\u003C\/b\u003E, down from a peak of 4.76 million in late May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E... \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zl24aIeMMoc\/X7fPtRdEeMI\/AAAAAAAA3HE\/l02ozaGWqkcgukJNWxRyZq8lL6wnk9eQwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1142\/BKForbearNov202020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Black Knight Forbearance\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zl24aIeMMoc\/X7fPtRdEeMI\/AAAAAAAA3HE\/l02ozaGWqkcgukJNWxRyZq8lL6wnk9eQwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/BKForbearNov202020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EMid-month incremental increases have been common so far, with the strongest declines typically being seen early in the month as forbearance plans expire. 82 percent of active forbearance cases have had their terms extended.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2656062164205935964\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2656062164205935964","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2656062164205935964"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2656062164205935964"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/black-knight-number-of-homeowners-in_20.html","title":"Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zl24aIeMMoc\/X7fPtRdEeMI\/AAAAAAAA3HE\/l02ozaGWqkcgukJNWxRyZq8lL6wnk9eQwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/BKForbearNov202020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5697982154562975637"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-19T20:07:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-19T20:07:54.382-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 19 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The CDC is now \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/daily-life-coping\/holidays\/thanksgiving.html\"\u003Erecommending no travel for Thanksgiving\u003C\/a\u003E. \u003Cblockquote\u003E\"As cases continue to increase rapidly across the United States, the safest way to celebrate Thanksgiving is to celebrate at home with the people you live with.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E \u003Cb\u003EPlease be careful, especially over the holidays\u003C\/b\u003E. Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years will be tough this year, but keep your guard up - plan now to have a safe holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,469,206 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 182,832 positive tests.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOver 21,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1GsvB9S7Smc\/X7cVsJl0SQI\/AAAAAAAA3G0\/rl8g0wQZkOYmJ3ZjL-MPzcScsO1jGit0ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1167\/COVIDNov192020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day and Percent Positive\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1GsvB9S7Smc\/X7cVsJl0SQI\/AAAAAAAA3G0\/rl8g0wQZkOYmJ3ZjL-MPzcScsO1jGit0ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov192020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.4% (red line is 7 day average).\u0026nbsp; The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/--zMhTDSY2aQ\/X7cVu3BsaeI\/AAAAAAAA3G4\/NDE58I1DwXADY3Ee7l4NwHC5PbkfCBmxQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1190\/COVIDCasesNov192020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/--zMhTDSY2aQ\/X7cVu3BsaeI\/AAAAAAAA3G4\/NDE58I1DwXADY3Ee7l4NwHC5PbkfCBmxQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov192020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• 7-day average cases are at a new record.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• 7-day average deaths at highest level since May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  • Record Hospitalizations."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5697982154562975637\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5697982154562975637","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5697982154562975637"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5697982154562975637"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-19-covid-19-test-results.html","title":"November 19 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1GsvB9S7Smc\/X7cVsJl0SQI\/AAAAAAAA3G0\/rl8g0wQZkOYmJ3ZjL-MPzcScsO1jGit0ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov192020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-696290415369120249"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-19T13:59:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-19T13:59:51.284-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on October Existing Home Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-to.html\"\u003ENAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.85 million in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA few key points:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) This was the highest sales rate since 2006. Some of the increase over the last few months was probably related to pent up demand from the shutdowns in March and April.\u0026nbsp; There are going to be some difficult comparisons next year!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) Inventory is very low, and was down 19.8% year-over-year (YoY) in October. This is the lowest level of inventory for October since at least the early 1990s.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) As usual, housing economist \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html\"\u003ETom Lawler's forecast\u003C\/a\u003E was closer to the NAR report than the Consensus.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-enzeHklTzug\/X7a_0q1-HvI\/AAAAAAAA3Go\/Xwr_YyN98QgogTo6kPUea0oHy0I-nZIdgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s944\/EHS20192020Oct.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales YoY\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-enzeHklTzug\/X7a_0q1-HvI\/AAAAAAAA3Go\/Xwr_YyN98QgogTo6kPUea0oHy0I-nZIdgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EHS20192020Oct.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows existing home sales by month for 2019 and 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEven with weak sales in April, May, and June, \u003Cb\u003Esales to date are up about 2.4% compared to the same period in 2019\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hwdz6ZvKins\/X7a_xTpqf3I\/AAAAAAAA3Gk\/AoFI_BAQJqQ0HaP6E5kZz5ifRakssQKDgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1093\/EHSNSAOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales NSA\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hwdz6ZvKins\/X7a_xTpqf3I\/AAAAAAAA3Gk\/AoFI_BAQJqQ0HaP6E5kZz5ifRakssQKDgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EHSNSAOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) by month (Red dashes are 2020), and the minimum and maximum for 2005 through 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESales NSA in October (573,000) were 24% above sales last year in October (462,000).\u0026nbsp; This was the all time high for October (NSA)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/696290415369120249\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=696290415369120249","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/696290415369120249"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/696290415369120249"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/comments-on-october-existing-home-sales.html","title":"Comments on October Existing Home Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-enzeHklTzug\/X7a_0q1-HvI\/AAAAAAAA3Go\/Xwr_YyN98QgogTo6kPUea0oHy0I-nZIdgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EHS20192020Oct.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7665065192454281769"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-19T11:17:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-19T11:17:13.408-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 32.7% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From HotelNewsNow.com: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.hotelnewsnow.com\/articles\/305323\/STR-US-hotel-results-for-week-ending-14-November\"\u003ESTR: US hotel results for week ending 14 November\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EU.S. weekly hotel occupancy slipped further from previous weeks, according to the latest data from STR through 14 November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8-14 November 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 43.2% (-32.7%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Average daily rate (ADR): US$90.58 (-28.6%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$39.11 (-52.0%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EAfter ranging between 48% and 50% occupancy from mid-July into the later portion of October, the last three weeks have produced levels of 44.4%, 44.1% and 43.2%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ESince there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate - see graph below - we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement.  This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 420px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek Ending\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYoY Change, Occupancy Rate\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9\/19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-31.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9\/26\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-31.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-29.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-29.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-30.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/24\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-31.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/31\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-29.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11\/7\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-35.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11\/14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-32.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis suggests no improvement over the last 9 weeks, and occupancy might be getting worse.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the \u003Cb\u003Efour week average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fQvztS0nIOA\/X7aaVGsHHMI\/AAAAAAAA3Gc\/5xIdypRjJGs1fdsS5-Qez3XZj4-d0eK6ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1039\/HotelNov192020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fQvztS0nIOA\/X7aaVGsHHMI\/AAAAAAAA3Gc\/5xIdypRjJGs1fdsS5-Qez3XZj4-d0eK6ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/HotelNov192020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESeasonally we'd expect the occupancy rate to decline into the new year.   Note that there was little pickup in business travel that usually happens in the Fall.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7665065192454281769\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7665065192454281769","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7665065192454281769"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7665065192454281769"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/hotels-occupancy-rate-declined-327-year.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 32.7% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-fQvztS0nIOA\/X7aaVGsHHMI\/AAAAAAAA3Gc\/5xIdypRjJGs1fdsS5-Qez3XZj4-d0eK6ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/HotelNov192020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3346441644722518838"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-19T10:11:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-19T10:11:26.178-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.85 million in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/existing-home-sales-jump-4-3-to-6-85-million-in-october\"\u003EExisting-Home Sales Jump 4.3% to 6.85 Million in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ETotal existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.3% from September to a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million in October\u003C\/b\u003E. Overall, sales rose year-over-year, up 26.6% from a year ago (5.41 million in October 2019).\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal housing inventory at the end of October totaled 1.42 million units, down 2.7% from September and down 19.8% from one year ago (1.77 million). Unsold inventory sits at an all-time low 2.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 2.7 months in September and down from the 3.9-month figure recorded in October 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-82e3lywTer8\/X7aI7WYtLXI\/AAAAAAAA3GE\/Dm4joaQKeCYDmhlwMtuK4q37D-Cm1vdjwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1084\/EHSOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-82e3lywTer8\/X7aI7WYtLXI\/AAAAAAAA3GE\/Dm4joaQKeCYDmhlwMtuK4q37D-Cm1vdjwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EHSOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESales in October (6.85 million SAAR)\u0026nbsp;were up 4.3% from last month, and were 26.6% above the October 2019 sales rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was the highest sales rate since early 2006.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-rpCmnkbIsmQ\/X7aKdIAmSqI\/AAAAAAAA3GM\/QS8SorjAb90yrFRUajhFn-FZXOlCeaSswCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1113\/EHSInvOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-rpCmnkbIsmQ\/X7aKdIAmSqI\/AAAAAAAA3GM\/QS8SorjAb90yrFRUajhFn-FZXOlCeaSswCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EHSInvOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAccording to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.42 million in October from 1.46 million in September. \u0026nbsp; Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe\u0026nbsp;last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-F6dVNE6Jzf0\/X7aK6bmR7aI\/AAAAAAAA3GU\/9IMGMh4m3BEnN_xYY57-q0WPegXZizVnwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1069\/EHSInvYoYOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-F6dVNE6Jzf0\/X7aK6bmR7aI\/AAAAAAAA3GU\/9IMGMh4m3BEnN_xYY57-q0WPegXZizVnwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EHSInvYoYOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E Inventory was down 19.8% year-over-year in October compared to October 2019. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonths of supply decreased to 2.5 months in September. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was above the consensus forecast. I'll have more later."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3346441644722518838\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3346441644722518838","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3346441644722518838"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3346441644722518838"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-to.html","title":"NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.85 million in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-82e3lywTer8\/X7aI7WYtLXI\/AAAAAAAA3GE\/Dm4joaQKeCYDmhlwMtuK4q37D-Cm1vdjwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EHSOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5787940899899926012"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-19T09:44:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-19T09:44:53.295-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Philly Fed Manufacturing \"Continued to Grow\" in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Philly Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/surveys-and-data\/regional-economic-analysis\/mbos-2020-11\"\u003ENovember 2020 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey \u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EManufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive for the sixth consecutive month but fell from their readings in October. However, employment increases were more widespread this month. Most future indexes also moderated this month but continue to indicate that firms expect growth over the next six months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe \u003Cb\u003Ediffusion index for current activity decreased 6 points to 26.3 in November\u003C\/b\u003E, its sixth consecutive positive reading after reaching long-term lows in April and May The current employment index, however, fell 3 points to 12.7 this month ... On balance, the firms reported increases in manufacturing employment for the fifth consecutive month. The current employment index increased 15 points to 27.2.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was close to the consensus forecast.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-riVED_juXM0\/X7Z3HXzGLdI\/AAAAAAAA3F8\/Kftw2zcY0cgeOQaFltclnc41zbdq2VDIgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1023\/ISMFedPreNov2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-riVED_juXM0\/X7Z3HXzGLdI\/AAAAAAAA3F8\/Kftw2zcY0cgeOQaFltclnc41zbdq2VDIgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ISMFedPreNov2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (blue, through November), and five Fed surveys are averaged (yellow, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through October (right axis).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will still be solid, but will likely decrease slightly in November from the October level."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5787940899899926012\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5787940899899926012","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5787940899899926012"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5787940899899926012"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/philly-fed-manufacturing-continued-to.html","title":"Philly Fed Manufacturing \"Continued to Grow\" in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-riVED_juXM0\/X7Z3HXzGLdI\/AAAAAAAA3F8\/Kftw2zcY0cgeOQaFltclnc41zbdq2VDIgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ISMFedPreNov2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2810647092870871618"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-19T08:37:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-19T08:37:40.644-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 742,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the week ending November 14, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 742,000\u003C\/b\u003E, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 709,000 to 711,000. The 4-week moving average was 742,000, a decrease of 13,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 755,250 to 755,750. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThis does not include the 320,237 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)\u003C\/b\u003E that was up from 296,374 the previous week.  (There are some questions on PUA numbers).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-H9I6QM8Ypxk\/X7Zz3MXM8hI\/AAAAAAAA3Fs\/sI5PVEiVCEQLXgQN1xRNaIFK1IeNdF7WgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1072\/WeeklyClaimsNov192020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-H9I6QM8Ypxk\/X7Zz3MXM8hI\/AAAAAAAA3Fs\/sI5PVEiVCEQLXgQN1xRNaIFK1IeNdF7WgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsNov192020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 742,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hGTW7uA6dr8\/X7Z09f8DToI\/AAAAAAAA3F0\/hlRgJZuCM9w_QhF6Jixxc7kVd5vSfcadgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1016\/ContinuedNov192020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hGTW7uA6dr8\/X7Z09f8DToI\/AAAAAAAA3F0\/hlRgJZuCM9w_QhF6Jixxc7kVd5vSfcadgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ContinuedNov192020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAt the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EContinued claims decreased to 6,372,000 (SA) from 6,801,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: There are an additional 8,681,647 receiving \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/wdr.doleta.gov\/directives\/corr_doc.cfm?DOCN=4628\"\u003EPandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)\u003C\/a\u003E that decreased from 9,433,127 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers).  This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAn additional 4,376,847 are receiving  Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that increased from 4,143,389 the previous week.  These last two programs are set to expire on December 26th.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2810647092870871618\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2810647092870871618","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2810647092870871618"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2810647092870871618"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_19.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 742,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-H9I6QM8Ypxk\/X7Zz3MXM8hI\/AAAAAAAA3Fs\/sI5PVEiVCEQLXgQN1xRNaIFK1IeNdF7WgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsNov192020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2047513102832622332"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-18T21:29:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-18T21:29:00.743-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Thursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.  The consensus is initial claims decreased to 700 thousand from 709 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also at 8:30 AM, the \u003Cb\u003EPhilly Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for November.  The consensus is for a reading of 24.0, down from 32.3.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EExisting Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  The consensus is for 6.45 million SAAR, down from 6.54 million in September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 11:00 AM, the \u003Cb\u003EKansas City Fed manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for November."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2047513102832622332\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2047513102832622332","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2047513102832622332"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2047513102832622332"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/thursday-existing-home-sales.html","title":"Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7709077397632042204"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-18T20:16:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-18T20:16:51.395-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 18 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The end of the pandemic is coming, possibly by Q2 2021!\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPlease be careful, especially over the holidays\u003C\/b\u003E.  Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years will be tough this year, but keep your guard up - plan now to have a safe holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,245,343 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 163,975 positive tests.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlmost 19,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-I1EHMQvKAqs\/X7XG7tqlpcI\/AAAAAAAA3Fc\/bBWg0LlCNJ4rpv6fJf4Re98vGb4enGTrgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1165\/COVIDNov182020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day and Percent Positive\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-I1EHMQvKAqs\/X7XG7tqlpcI\/AAAAAAAA3Fc\/bBWg0LlCNJ4rpv6fJf4Re98vGb4enGTrgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov182020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 13.2% (red line is 7 day average).\u0026nbsp; The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iNsH5Sa6ML4\/X7XG-2R-d3I\/AAAAAAAA3Fg\/dHa17OuoM5MUu11Ds3q9JcMd2gWGlPdbgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1185\/COVIDCasesNov182020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-iNsH5Sa6ML4\/X7XG-2R-d3I\/AAAAAAAA3Fg\/dHa17OuoM5MUu11Ds3q9JcMd2gWGlPdbgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov182020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• 7-day average cases are at a new record.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• 7-day average deaths at highest level since May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  • Record Hospitalizations.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7709077397632042204\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7709077397632042204","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7709077397632042204"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7709077397632042204"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-18-covid-19-test-results.html","title":"November 18 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-I1EHMQvKAqs\/X7XG7tqlpcI\/AAAAAAAA3Fc\/bBWg0LlCNJ4rpv6fJf4Re98vGb4enGTrgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov182020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8469030014212580410"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-18T19:13:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-18T19:13:05.636-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"CAR on California October Housing: Sales up 20% YoY, Active Listings down 40%+ YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The CAR reported: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.car.org\/aboutus\/mediacenter\/newsreleases\/2020releases\/oct2020sales\"\u003ECalifornia homebuying season extends into fall as home sales and prices remain elevated in October, C.A.R. reports\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EContinued record low mortgage interest rates sustained California’s housing market in October as home sales and prices took a breather from September’s record high levels and still recorded double-digit increases from a year ago, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EClosed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 484,510 units in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2020 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EOctober’s sales total climbed above the 400,000 level for the fourth straight month since the COVID-19 crisis depressed the housing market earlier this year and was just 15,000 units shy of the 500,000 benchmark. October sales dipped 1.0 percent from 489,590 in September and were \u003Cb\u003Eup 19.9 percent from a year ago\u003C\/b\u003E, when 404,240 homes were sold on an annualized basis.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EActive listings continued to decline significantly, with most regions declining more than 40 percent from last year. The Central Valley had the biggest year-over-year drop of 49.6 percent in October, followed by Southern California (-46.6 percent), the Central Coast (-46.5 percent), the Far North (-40.9 percent), and the San Francisco Bay Area (-23.8 percent).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ECR Note: Existing home sales are reported when the transaction closes, so this was mostly for contracts signed in August and September.  \u003Cb\u003ESales-to-date, through October, are down 1.3% compared to the same period in 2019\u003C\/b\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8469030014212580410\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8469030014212580410","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8469030014212580410"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8469030014212580410"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/car-on-california-october-housing-sales.html","title":"CAR on California October Housing: Sales up 20% YoY, Active Listings down 40%+ YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1532174108788728688"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-18T13:59:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-18T13:59:53.178-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"LA Area Port Traffic: Strong Imports, Weak Exports in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ENote:\u003C\/b\u003E The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2016\/08\/la-area-port-traffic-mostly-unchanged.html\"\u003Enoted a few years ago\u003C\/a\u003E), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EContainer traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.portoflosangeles.org\/business\/statistics\/container-statistics\"\u003ELos Angeles\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.polb.com\/economics\/stats\/latest_teus.asp\"\u003ELong Beach\u003C\/a\u003E in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETo remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-19maktd9joM\/X7VuizNBB4I\/AAAAAAAA3FM\/Y4NCSuSY48E76brChFYH7pu_DEMLvTcygCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1031\/PortRollingOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"LA Area Port Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-19maktd9joM\/X7VuizNBB4I\/AAAAAAAA3FM\/Y4NCSuSY48E76brChFYH7pu_DEMLvTcygCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PortRollingOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn a rolling 12 month basis,\u0026nbsp;inbound traffic was up 2.2% in October compared to the rolling 12 months ending in September.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp; Outbound traffic was down 0.4% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JeHyzbWc49c\/X7Vuk6Q-bII\/AAAAAAAA3FQ\/MDNkLRstXC08t2a2zFtJLc5FVuLVYUqTACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1039\/PortOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"LA Area Port Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JeHyzbWc49c\/X7Vuk6Q-bII\/AAAAAAAA3FQ\/MDNkLRstXC08t2a2zFtJLc5FVuLVYUqTACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PortOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EUsually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EImports were up 25% YoY in October, and exports were down 5% YoY."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1532174108788728688\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1532174108788728688","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1532174108788728688"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1532174108788728688"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/la-area-port-traffic-strong-imports.html","title":"LA Area Port Traffic: Strong Imports, Weak Exports in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-19maktd9joM\/X7VuizNBB4I\/AAAAAAAA3FM\/Y4NCSuSY48E76brChFYH7pu_DEMLvTcygCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/PortRollingOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9184929816081448236"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-18T10:37:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-18T10:37:00.766-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AIA: \"Architecture billings remained stalled in October\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the AIA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aia.org\/press-releases\/6349397-architecture-billings-remained-stalled-in-\"\u003EArchitecture billings remained stalled in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWhile architectural billings failed to show much progress during October, signs of improving business conditions at firms have emerged, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe pace of decline during October remained at about the same level as in September, posting an \u003Cb\u003EABI score of 47.5\u003C\/b\u003E (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings). Meanwhile, firms reported a modest increase in new project inquiries—growing from 57.2 in September to 59.1 in October—and newly signed design contracts jumped into positive territory for the first time since the pandemic began, with a score of 51.7.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“Though still in negative territory, the moderating billings score along with the rebound in design contracts and inquiries provide some guarded optimism,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The pace of recovery will continue to vary across regions and sectors.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Regional averages: West (50.4); Midwest (49.4); South (45.8); Northeast (44.9)\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (55.1); mixed practice (52.7); commercial\/industrial (48.0); institutional (42.2)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-68GqDNIPrVA\/X7U_VIAZqcI\/AAAAAAAA3E0\/8DjDLP2syi0tW4JQ8w5zqjzj_zyWyOTWgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1005\/ABIOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"AIA Architecture Billing Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-68GqDNIPrVA\/X7U_VIAZqcI\/AAAAAAAA3E0\/8DjDLP2syi0tW4JQ8w5zqjzj_zyWyOTWgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ABIOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.5 in October, up from 47.0 in September.  Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis index has been below 50 for eight consecutive months.\u0026nbsp; This represents a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through the first half of 2021 (This usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis weakness is not surprising since certain segments of CRE are struggling, especially offices and retail."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9184929816081448236\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9184929816081448236","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9184929816081448236"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9184929816081448236"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/aia-architecture-billings-remained.html","title":"AIA: \"Architecture billings remained stalled in October\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-68GqDNIPrVA\/X7U_VIAZqcI\/AAAAAAAA3E0\/8DjDLP2syi0tW4JQ8w5zqjzj_zyWyOTWgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ABIOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8206138336994645502"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-18T09:32:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-18T09:32:16.468-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on October Housing Starts"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Earlier: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/housing-starts-increased-to-1530.html\"\u003EHousing Starts increased to 1.530 Million Annual Rate in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal housing starts in October were above expectations, and starts in August and September were revised up, combined.  The single family sectors has increased sharply, but the volatile multi-family sector is down year-over-year (apartments are under\u0026nbsp; pressure from COVID).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe housing starts report showed starts were up 4.9% in October compared to September, and starts were up 14.2% year-over-year compared to October 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESingle family starts were up 29% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; Low mortgage rates and limited existing home inventory have given a boost to single family housing starts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2019 (blue) and 2020 (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tmGqDIdbWnA\/X7UlSnZu7FI\/AAAAAAAA3Eg\/RqRFKJpt27EGEaO9iFnNwGaK_dn0rqluQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s942\/Starts20192020Oct.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Starts Housing 2019 and 2020\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tmGqDIdbWnA\/X7UlSnZu7FI\/AAAAAAAA3Eg\/RqRFKJpt27EGEaO9iFnNwGaK_dn0rqluQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/Starts20192020Oct.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EStarts were up 14.2% in October compared to October 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELast year, in 2019, starts picked up towards the end of the year, so the comparisons were earlier this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EStarts, year-to-date, are up 6.7% compared to the same period in 2019.\u003C\/b\u003E   This is close to my forecast for 2020, although I didn't expect a pandemic!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI expect starts to remain solid, but the growth rate will slow.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBelow is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions.  Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions.  Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-goXiYkwtCok\/X7UnoSMqx_I\/AAAAAAAA3Eo\/lIgQ0uGz1dw7YdpBtr8WpDVH2c3x9xECwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1058\/MultiOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multifamily Starts and completions\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-goXiYkwtCok\/X7UnoSMqx_I\/AAAAAAAA3Eo\/lIgQ0uGz1dw7YdpBtr8WpDVH2c3x9xECwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MultiOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession - then mostly moved sideways.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;Completions (red line) had lagged behind - then completions caught up with starts- then starts picked up a little again late last year, but have fallen off the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-LwiYaNusUwM\/X7UnqAtN5qI\/AAAAAAAA3Es\/W1qtgfggDdQnRPDh40XK-KM4GGZ4H5yygCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1027\/SingleOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Single family Starts and completions\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-LwiYaNusUwM\/X7UnqAtN5qI\/AAAAAAAA3Es\/W1qtgfggDdQnRPDh40XK-KM4GGZ4H5yygCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/SingleOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe last graph shows single family starts and completions.  It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer.  The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESingle family starts are getting back to more normal levels, and\u0026nbsp; I expect some further increases in single family starts and completions on rolling 12 month basis."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8206138336994645502\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8206138336994645502","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8206138336994645502"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8206138336994645502"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/comments-on-october-housing-starts.html","title":"Comments on October Housing Starts"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tmGqDIdbWnA\/X7UlSnZu7FI\/AAAAAAAA3Eg\/RqRFKJpt27EGEaO9iFnNwGaK_dn0rqluQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/Starts20192020Oct.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8330851861078676634"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-18T08:38:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-18T08:38:14.307-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing Starts increased to 1.530 Million Annual Rate in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Census Bureau: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst.pdf\"\u003EPermits, Starts and Completions\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPrivately-owned housing starts in October were at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,530,000\u003C\/b\u003E. This is 4.9 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,459,000 and is 14.2 percent above the October 2019 rate of 1,340,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 1,179,000; this is 6.4 percent above the revised September figure of 1,108,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 334,000.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBuilding Permits:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPrivately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,545,000. This is virtually unchanged (±1.3 percent)* from the revised September rate of 1,545,000, but is 2.8 percent above the October 2019 rate of 1,503,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 1,120,000; this is 0.6 percent above the revised September figure of 1,113,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 365,000 in October. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-AHHKYVJlkDs\/X7Ui9ZNHj6I\/AAAAAAAA3EU\/4ZlfjBaJBxAqKyOcxJLQuRpdZrjQfoDBgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1019\/StartsShortNov2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-AHHKYVJlkDs\/X7Ui9ZNHj6I\/AAAAAAAA3EU\/4ZlfjBaJBxAqKyOcxJLQuRpdZrjQfoDBgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/StartsShortNov2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMulti-family starts (red, 2+ units) were unchanged in October compared to September. \u0026nbsp; Multi-family starts were down 18% year-over-year in October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESingle-family starts (blue) increased in October, and were up 29% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;This is the highest level for single family starts since 2007.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-byobuhrAnG0\/X7Ui7LR8qRI\/AAAAAAAA3EQ\/7HxZBLCHhlQqkpYoHVoTYCTSZo6Dy9yFQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1021\/StartsNov2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-byobuhrAnG0\/X7Ui7LR8qRI\/AAAAAAAA3EQ\/7HxZBLCHhlQqkpYoHVoTYCTSZo6Dy9yFQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/StartsNov2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal housing starts in October were above expectations, and starts in August and September were revised up, combined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll have more later …"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8330851861078676634\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8330851861078676634","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8330851861078676634"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8330851861078676634"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/housing-starts-increased-to-1530.html","title":"Housing Starts increased to 1.530 Million Annual Rate in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-AHHKYVJlkDs\/X7Ui9ZNHj6I\/AAAAAAAA3EU\/4ZlfjBaJBxAqKyOcxJLQuRpdZrjQfoDBgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/StartsShortNov2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1298018280488657513"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-18T07:00:00.020-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-18T07:42:13.652-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E Mortgage applications decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 13, 2020. This week’s results do not include an adjustment for the Veterans’ Day holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 98 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier.\u003C\/b\u003E The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E26 percent higher than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Mortgage market activity was mixed last week, despite the 30-year fixed rate mortgage staying below 3 percent. The purchase market recovered from its recent weekly slump, with activity increasing 3 percent and climbing above year-ago levels for the 26th straight week. Housing demand remains supported by the ongoing recovery in the job market, and an increased appetite from households seeking more space because of the pandemic,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The refinance index decreased last week – driven by sharp declines in FHA and VA applications – but remained a robust 98 percent above a year ago. The average refinance loan balance of $291,000 last week was the lowest since January. Many borrowers with higher loan balances may have acted earlier on in the current refinance wave.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 2.99 percent from 2.98 percent, with points increasing to 0.37 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_ahylzECUps\/X7RgD1fIO8I\/AAAAAAAA3Ds\/cYE5wGTBzwIIDq2srzNpZ4BOLkzqpZL7wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1089\/MBARefiNov182020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_ahylzECUps\/X7RgD1fIO8I\/AAAAAAAA3Ds\/cYE5wGTBzwIIDq2srzNpZ4BOLkzqpZL7wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBARefiNov182020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut with record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-OHyZqjEdgM4\/X7RgGF8XeZI\/AAAAAAAA3Dw\/66Rl4WMWzuIdJmee4l7jP9BYz2DRTkKLgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1083\/MBANov182020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-OHyZqjEdgM4\/X7RgGF8XeZI\/AAAAAAAA3Dw\/66Rl4WMWzuIdJmee4l7jP9BYz2DRTkKLgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBANov182020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1298018280488657513\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1298018280488657513","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1298018280488657513"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1298018280488657513"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_18.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-_ahylzECUps\/X7RgD1fIO8I\/AAAAAAAA3Ds\/cYE5wGTBzwIIDq2srzNpZ4BOLkzqpZL7wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBARefiNov182020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3035976153403645082"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-17T21:15:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-17T21:15:01.208-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Housing Starts"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts\u003C\/b\u003E for October. The consensus is for 1.460 million SAAR, up from 1.415 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• During the day, The AIA's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3035976153403645082\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3035976153403645082","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3035976153403645082"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3035976153403645082"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/wednesday-housing-starts.html","title":"Wednesday: Housing Starts"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-713857912958259181"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-17T19:57:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-17T20:05:27.363-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 17 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The end of the pandemic is coming, possibly by Q2 2021!\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPlease be careful, especially over the holidays\u003C\/b\u003E.  Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years will be tough this year, but keep your guard up - plan now to have a safe holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,243,225 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 155,201 positive tests.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlmost 17,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-URKMc3BEYXM\/X7RwlETXxZI\/AAAAAAAA3D8\/NNwSDB7esZokVNW7digBJ8Zpzha0TLj3ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1160\/COVIDNov172020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day and Percent Positive\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-URKMc3BEYXM\/X7RwlETXxZI\/AAAAAAAA3D8\/NNwSDB7esZokVNW7digBJ8Zpzha0TLj3ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov172020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 12.5% (red line is 7 day average).\u0026nbsp; The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TON9zMwM-oQ\/X7RwnF7AtQI\/AAAAAAAA3EA\/F5Xj-VEfHCotiap3SMuYwav9DvA0488aQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1185\/COVIDCasesNov172020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TON9zMwM-oQ\/X7RwnF7AtQI\/AAAAAAAA3EA\/F5Xj-VEfHCotiap3SMuYwav9DvA0488aQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov172020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• 7-day average cases are at a new record.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• 7-day average deaths at highest since May.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  • Record Hospitalizations.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/713857912958259181\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=713857912958259181","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/713857912958259181"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/713857912958259181"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-17-covid-19-test-results.html","title":"November 17 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-URKMc3BEYXM\/X7RwlETXxZI\/AAAAAAAA3D8\/NNwSDB7esZokVNW7digBJ8Zpzha0TLj3ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov172020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-160126757996285416"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-17T17:09:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-17T17:09:51.909-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From housing economist Tom Lawler:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBased on publicly-available local realtor\/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.63 million in October\u003C\/b\u003E, up 1.4% from September’s preliminary pace and up 22.6% from last October’s seasonally adjusted pace.  I should note that several state and local realtor reports that would normally be available at this time of the month have not yet been released, and as a result \u003Cb\u003Emy sample size is smaller than normal\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELocal realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale was about the same in October as it was in September, though what that means for the NAR inventory estimate is unclear.  As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor\/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for many of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”),  Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding pending listings have fallen much more sharply than inventory measures including such listings, and this latter inventory measure understates the decline in the effective inventory of homes for sale over the last several months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFinally, local realtor\/MLS reports suggest the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by 14% from last October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release October existing home sales on Thursday, November 19, 2020 at 10:00 AM ET.  The consensus is for 6.45 million SAAR."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/160126757996285416\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=160126757996285416","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/160126757996285416"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/160126757996285416"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html","title":"Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2422586207722591851"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-17T16:32:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-17T16:32:36.356-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales Up 23.5% YoY, Active Inventory Down 42% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/armls.com\/statistics\"\u003EArizona Regional Multiple Listing Service\u003C\/a\u003E (ARMLS) reports (\"Stats Report\"):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E1) Overall sales were at 9,690 in October, up from 9,305 in September, and up from 7,850 in October 2019.  Sales were up 4.1% from September 2020 (last month), and \u003Cb\u003Eup 23.5% from October 2019\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) Active inventory was at 8,343, down from 14,427 in October 2019. That is \u003Cb\u003Edown 42% year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) Months of supply decreased to 1.41 in October from 1.48 in September.  This is very low.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESales are reported at the close of escrow, so these sales were mostly signed in August and September."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2422586207722591851\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2422586207722591851","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2422586207722591851"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2422586207722591851"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/phoenix-real-estate-in-october-sales-up.html","title":"Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales Up 23.5% YoY, Active Inventory Down 42% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2986018193057919864"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-17T11:09:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-17T11:09:12.565-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NY Fed Q3 Report: \"Total Household Debt Increased in Q3 2020, Led by Surge in New Credit Extensions\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NY Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/newsevents\/news\/research\/2020\/20201117\"\u003ETotal Household Debt Increased in Q3 2020, Led by Surge in New Credit Extensions; Mortgage Originations, Including Refinances, Continue to Soar\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that \u003Cb\u003Etotal household debt increased by $87 billion (0.6%) to $14.35 trillion in the third quarter of 2020\u003C\/b\u003E. The increase more than offset the decline seen in the second quarter of 2020 as total household debt has surpassed its 2020Q1 reading. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. This latest report reflects consumer credit data as of September 30, 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EMortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—rose by $85 billion in the third quarter, and sat at $9.86 trillion on September 30. Mortgage originations, which include refinances, were at $1.05 trillion, the second highest volume in the history of the series and second only to the historic refinance boom in 2003Q3. Balances on home equity lines of credit saw a $13 billion decline, their 15th consecutive decrease since 2016Q4, bringing the outstanding balance to $362 billion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EAggregate delinquency rates across all debt products fell again in the third quarter, indicating the ongoing effect of forbearances provided by the CARES Act or voluntarily offered by lenders\u003C\/b\u003E. New transitions into early delinquency have also fallen across product type. The various forbearance offerings and uptake have largely protected borrowers' credit files from being marked delinquent from missed payments. As of September 30, 3.4% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the second quarter, and 1.4 percentage points lower than the rate observed in 2019Q4. About 132,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2020Q3, a decline from the previous quarter and a new historical low.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-gxvCLhvAuQ8\/X7P05auoQbI\/AAAAAAAA3Dc\/-E8_lg7Jx5wcYmeBGYIenAiZG08isU36wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s933\/NYFedDebtQ32020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Total Household Debt\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-gxvCLhvAuQ8\/X7P05auoQbI\/AAAAAAAA3Dc\/-E8_lg7Jx5wcYmeBGYIenAiZG08isU36wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/NYFedDebtQ32020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere are two graphs from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/hhdc.html\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows aggregate consumer debt decreased in Q3. \u0026nbsp;Household debt previously\u0026nbsp;peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q3 2013.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the NY Fed:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAggregate household debt balances increased by $87 billion in the third quarter of 2020, a 0.6% rise from 2020Q2, and now stand at $14.35 trillion. The increase offsets the decline seen in the second quarter of 2020. Balances are $1.68 trillion higher, in nominal terms, than the 2008Q3 peak of $12.68 trillion and 28.7% above the 2013Q2 trough.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-mqSE4QSOetQ\/X7P07WqE27I\/AAAAAAAA3Dg\/-oXyh0DAQ1IQ7wNNyqRO-eLFsk1uzyt6wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s915\/NYFedDelinquencyQ32020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Delinquency Status\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-mqSE4QSOetQ\/X7P07WqE27I\/AAAAAAAA3Dg\/-oXyh0DAQ1IQ7wNNyqRO-eLFsk1uzyt6wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/NYFedDelinquencyQ32020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe overall delinquency rate decreased in Q3. \u0026nbsp;From the NY Fed:  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAggregate delinquency rates have dropped markedly in the second and third quarter, reflecting an uptake in forbearances (provided by both the CARES Act and voluntarily offered by lenders), which protect borrowers’ credit records from the reporting of skipped or deferred payments. Note that accounts in forbearance might be categorized as delinquent on the lender’s book, but typically as current on the credit reports. As of September 30, 3.4% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the second quarter, and 1.4 percentage points lower than the rate observed in the fourth quarter of 2019 and before the Covid pandemic hit the United States. Of the $485 billion of debt that is delinquent, $363 billion is seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”, which includes some debts that have been removed from lenders books but upon which they continue to attempt collection).\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe uptake in forbearances continues to be visible in the delinquency transition rates for mortgages. The share of mortgages that transitioned to early delinquency remained at a very low 0.5%, as the option to enter forbearance remained. Meanwhile, 47% of loans in early delinquency transitioned to current. There were only 16,000 new foreclosure starts; given that homeowners with federally backed mortgages are currently protected from foreclosure through a moratorium in the CARES Act.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/medialibrary\/interactives\/householdcredit\/data\/pdf\/HHDC_2020Q2.pdf\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2986018193057919864\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2986018193057919864","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2986018193057919864"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2986018193057919864"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/ny-fed-q3-report-total-household-debt.html","title":"NY Fed Q3 Report: \"Total Household Debt Increased in Q3 2020, Led by Surge in New Credit Extensions\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-gxvCLhvAuQ8\/X7P05auoQbI\/AAAAAAAA3Dc\/-E8_lg7Jx5wcYmeBGYIenAiZG08isU36wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/NYFedDebtQ32020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4514867169743889592"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-17T10:06:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-17T10:06:28.472-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 90 in November, Record High"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 90, up from 85 in October.  Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the NAHB: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/nahbnow.com\/2020\/11\/sales-growth-lifts-builder-confidence-to-new-record-high\/\"\u003ESales Growth Lifts Builder Confidence to New Record High\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn another sign that housing continues to lead the economy forward, \u003Cb\u003Ebuilder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased five points to 90 in November\u003C\/b\u003E, shattering the previous all-time of 85 recorded in October, according to the latest NAHB\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder confidence levels have hit successive all-time highs over the past three months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“Historically low mortgage rates, favorable demographics and an ongoing suburban shift for home buyer preferences have spurred demand and increased new home sales by nearly 17% in 2020 on a year-to-date basis,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Though builders continue to sign sales contracts at a solid pace, lot and material availability is holding back some building activity. Looking ahead to next year, regulatory policy risk will be a key concern given these supply-side constraints.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“Another record high for the HMI reflects that housing is a bright spot for the economy,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, affordability remains an ongoing concern, as construction costs continue to rise and interest rates are expected to move higher as more positive news emerges on the coronavirus vaccine front. In the short run, the shift of housing demand to lower density markets such as suburbs and exurbs with ongoing low resale inventory levels is supporting demand for home building.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EAll the HMI indices posted their highest readings ever in November. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose six points to 96, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased one point to 89 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers rose three points to 77.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003ELooking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 83, the Midwest jumped six points to 80, the South rose four points to 86 and the West increased four points to 94.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-2wiB1g5LWPY\/X7Pl8sT34SI\/AAAAAAAA3DU\/ManTD-0qJOgZKUNtYwgo-4KEevdhnxwqACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1075\/NAHBNov2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"NAHB HMI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-2wiB1g5LWPY\/X7Pl8sT34SI\/AAAAAAAA3DU\/ManTD-0qJOgZKUNtYwgo-4KEevdhnxwqACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/NAHBNov2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: left; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was above the consensus forecast.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHousing and homebuilding have been one of the best performing sectors during the pandemic."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4514867169743889592\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4514867169743889592","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4514867169743889592"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4514867169743889592"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/nahb-builder-confidence-increased-to-90.html","title":"NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 90 in November, Record High"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-2wiB1g5LWPY\/X7Pl8sT34SI\/AAAAAAAA3DU\/ManTD-0qJOgZKUNtYwgo-4KEevdhnxwqACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/NAHBNov2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});