// API callback
showrecentposts({"version":"1.0","encoding":"UTF-8","feed":{"xmlns":"http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom","xmlns$openSearch":"http://a9.com/-/spec/opensearchrss/1.0/","xmlns$blogger":"http://schemas.google.com/blogger/2008","xmlns$georss":"http://www.georss.org/georss","xmlns$gd":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005","xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-22T14:46:08.455-04:00"},"category":[{"term":"CRE"},{"term":"FDIC"},{"term":"Employment"},{"term":"Bank Failure"},{"term":"House Prices"},{"term":"Foreclosure"},{"term":"Confessional"},{"term":"Recession"},{"term":"auto"},{"term":"Existing Home Sales"},{"term":"Credit Crunch"},{"term":"The Mother of All Bailouts"},{"term":"New Home Sales"},{"term":"retail"},{"term":"Fed Speeches"},{"term":"Existing Home Inventory"},{"term":"delinquency"},{"term":"Regulatory"},{"term":"Bankruptcy"},{"term":"Counterparty Risk"},{"term":"humor"},{"term":"Rating Agencies"},{"term":"MBA"},{"term":"Housing Starts"},{"term":"Trade Deficit"},{"term":"PCE"},{"term":"oil"},{"term":"New home inventory"},{"term":"Fed Funds Rate"},{"term":"Freddie Mac"},{"term":"mortgage rates"},{"term":"Weekly Summary"},{"term":"Workouts"},{"term":"Mortgage"},{"term":"non-residential investment"},{"term":"NAHB"},{"term":"Fannie Mae"},{"term":"default"},{"term":"DataQuick"},{"term":"MEW"},{"term":"REO"},{"term":"FHA"},{"term":"Loan Modifications"},{"term":"Rental Market"},{"term":"GSEs"},{"term":"Construction Spending"},{"term":"Mortgage Fraud"},{"term":"Negative Equity"},{"term":"Yikes"},{"term":"Pier Loans"},{"term":"GDP"},{"term":"mark"},{"term":"Credit Cards"},{"term":"SIVs"},{"term":"Option ARM"},{"term":"short sale"},{"term":"Residential Investment"},{"term":"Media"},{"term":"You Must Be Kidding"},{"term":"MMI"},{"term":"cartoons"},{"term":"Securitization"},{"term":"Subprime"},{"term":"ARM Resets"},{"term":"Home Improvement"},{"term":"CDO"},{"term":"Cancellations"},{"term":"transportation"},{"term":"Weekly Schedule"},{"term":"Construction Employment"},{"term":"Bank Run"},{"term":"Ephemera"},{"term":"HELOC"},{"term":"LBO"},{"term":"housing economics"},{"term":"Alt-A"},{"term":"Commercial Paper"},{"term":"Countrywide"},{"term":"FOMC"},{"term":"Inflation"},{"term":"UberNerd"},{"term":"budget deficit"},{"term":"Rock"},{"term":"Servicing"},{"term":"The Mother of All Stimulus Plans"},{"term":"CPI"},{"term":"Mortgage Insurance"},{"term":"Speculation"},{"term":"bagholders"},{"term":"Mortgage Pig"},{"term":"Northern Rock"},{"term":"Picking On Poor Gretchen"},{"term":"Flow of Funds"},{"term":"Pricing"},{"term":"Brokers"},{"term":"consumer credit"},{"term":"housing bubble"},{"term":"rail traffic"},{"term":"Appraisals"},{"term":"Conforming Limits"},{"term":"homebuilders"},{"term":"vacancies"},{"term":"CMBX"},{"term":"Economics"},{"term":"Financial Accounting"},{"term":"Off Topic"},{"term":"Paulson"},{"term":"ABX Indices"},{"term":"Demographics"},{"term":"Greenspan"},{"term":"Musée des Beaux Arts"},{"term":"Nerdly Data"},{"term":"RE Bust"},{"term":"unemployment rate"},{"term":"Bricolage"},{"term":"Chutzpah"},{"term":"Dollar"},{"term":"Hedge Funds"},{"term":"Monetary Policy"},{"term":"revisions"},{"term":"ARS"},{"term":"Bernanke"},{"term":"Credit Indicators"},{"term":"Credit Unions"},{"term":"Freddie"},{"term":"HMDA"},{"term":"Kennedy-Greenspan"},{"term":"Lawyers Guns and Money"},{"term":"Loan Limits"},{"term":"Nuclear Waste"},{"term":"Property Taxes"},{"term":"RE Fraud"},{"term":"Rational Exuberance"},{"term":"bank failures"},{"term":"bankrutpcy"},{"term":"bean-counting"},{"term":"modifications"},{"term":"But The Lender Won't Go To Jail"},{"term":"Daily Color"},{"term":"EMI"},{"term":"Ephemera. MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"34778"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9010172514737923568"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-22T14:27:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-22T14:27:15.501-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-470\"\u003E2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 23rd at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2024 at 3.90 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHousing economist \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-early-read-on-september-existing\"\u003ETom Lawler expects\u003C\/a\u003E the NAR to report sales of 4.00 million SAAR for September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSeptember sales will be mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates averaged 6.72% in July and 6.59% in August (lower than for closed sales in July).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgoyyKtNR0aZ9LygZ0DZ7C-JpPIWf0rrwZ9icEoEvztbZJ725F7IDJrJIxmJq44K38k1tdiHbbTCjcothJVKyRAgD6S3EoUAkla2NN6SxNLxGIkpb-PgA980OVeYM-h7DlyAqd8nfR8uY9BEWiUiK1HacCy_5TrLuDNvnpMXxd0byJN_xnJ7FzC\/s1424\/Image%2010-22-25%20at%2010.58%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgoyyKtNR0aZ9LygZ0DZ7C-JpPIWf0rrwZ9icEoEvztbZJ725F7IDJrJIxmJq44K38k1tdiHbbTCjcothJVKyRAgD6S3EoUAkla2NN6SxNLxGIkpb-PgA980OVeYM-h7DlyAqd8nfR8uY9BEWiUiK1HacCy_5TrLuDNvnpMXxd0byJN_xnJ7FzC\/s320\/Image%2010-22-25%20at%2010.58%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIn September, sales in these markets were up 8.2% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 2.5% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EImportant:\u003C\/b\u003E There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003EMore local markets to come after the NAR release.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9010172514737923568"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9010172514737923568"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgoyyKtNR0aZ9LygZ0DZ7C-JpPIWf0rrwZ9icEoEvztbZJ725F7IDJrJIxmJq44K38k1tdiHbbTCjcothJVKyRAgD6S3EoUAkla2NN6SxNLxGIkpb-PgA980OVeYM-h7DlyAqd8nfR8uY9BEWiUiK1HacCy_5TrLuDNvnpMXxd0byJN_xnJ7FzC\/s72-c\/Image%2010-22-25%20at%2010.58%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1212748949239662134"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-22T07:00:00.020-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-22T07:00:00.122-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 0.3 percent from one\nweek earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage\nApplications Survey for the week ending October 17, 2025.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.3 percent on\na seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.2\npercent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous\nweek and was 81 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase\nIndex decreased 5 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent\ncompared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“The lowest mortgage rates in a month spurred an increase in refinance activity, including another pickup\nin ARM applications. The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.37 percent and all other loan types also\ndecreased,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The refinance index\nincreased 4 percent, driven by a 6 percent increase in conventional refinances and a 12 percent increase\nin FHA refinance applications, as borrowers remain attentive to these opportunities to lower their monthly\nmortgage payment. VA refinances bucked the trend and were down 12 percent.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAdded Kan, “ARM applications increased 16 percent over the week, which pushed the ARM share to 11\npercent, with the ARM rate more than 80 basis points lower than the 30-year fixed rate. Purchase\napplications were down over the week but remained \u003Cb\u003E20 percent higher than a year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances\n($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.37 percent from 6.42 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.61\n(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRpK8E_7oh0yx9QQ6U-hwjKlETRBkGzAiDQusMFl8UP1jYVxTgjH0mJE0pDW4Erp8zv-GrXL3aBgyVRyAS_1rkWS8ZM8TZ1ICNqRBS_3MAmQJNCdnC8w0hIrCk79TBlxd9ZYYTi1R66w8rEyGhm8da2bogmu6hStHHIMtbKPATbXaVca-FPAi7\/s1816\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%202.24%E2%80%AFPM.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRpK8E_7oh0yx9QQ6U-hwjKlETRBkGzAiDQusMFl8UP1jYVxTgjH0mJE0pDW4Erp8zv-GrXL3aBgyVRyAS_1rkWS8ZM8TZ1ICNqRBS_3MAmQJNCdnC8w0hIrCk79TBlxd9ZYYTi1R66w8rEyGhm8da2bogmu6hStHHIMtbKPATbXaVca-FPAi7\/s320\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%202.24%E2%80%AFPM.jpeg\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\n\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is up 20% year-over-year unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPurchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhAsth5dO6h90cnIKGVfEEyQyLl3WD7kCgs6iEgyxdQjQMYAaXDEl0iYnXa7AqCbOh1tIORfQUry5Wxc5jSzjonX-Qz-_AbgBj8NqpSP699IqjZgi15ap0XmgGbmVt6J0bgowJCl8TtfTk7wT1GY7vV-6q5cbrO-TL0d9VJGErImqn1UREYSAl_\/s1826\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%202.24%E2%80%AFPM%20%281%29.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhAsth5dO6h90cnIKGVfEEyQyLl3WD7kCgs6iEgyxdQjQMYAaXDEl0iYnXa7AqCbOh1tIORfQUry5Wxc5jSzjonX-Qz-_AbgBj8NqpSP699IqjZgi15ap0XmgGbmVt6J0bgowJCl8TtfTk7wT1GY7vV-6q5cbrO-TL0d9VJGErImqn1UREYSAl_\/s320\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%202.24%E2%80%AFPM%20%281%29.jpeg\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1212748949239662134"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1212748949239662134"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/mbamortgage-applications-decrease-in_01580691906.html","title":"MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRpK8E_7oh0yx9QQ6U-hwjKlETRBkGzAiDQusMFl8UP1jYVxTgjH0mJE0pDW4Erp8zv-GrXL3aBgyVRyAS_1rkWS8ZM8TZ1ICNqRBS_3MAmQJNCdnC8w0hIrCk79TBlxd9ZYYTi1R66w8rEyGhm8da2bogmu6hStHHIMtbKPATbXaVca-FPAi7\/s72-c\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%202.24%E2%80%AFPM.jpeg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1880572791767651854"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-21T19:58:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-21T19:58:00.123-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiIm9xbQyXKNYZiV-6nWVP0pDuvWNJUIzVRBjk0Lgi7t83j4Goi5-G_ihzKz7NOAUz0MURoTYCA9jYIBj-voqNviG39UqNMEWksjoqZg3EFWjK9mdIhCafATQQa5fOHIA-o6Cj0gIHY2RfZ4zWgYRFQoOpYhM7ouyRFsqOc_h5auV2DLOcFUd9_\/s632\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%2012.51%E2%80%AFPM.jpeg\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiIm9xbQyXKNYZiV-6nWVP0pDuvWNJUIzVRBjk0Lgi7t83j4Goi5-G_ihzKz7NOAUz0MURoTYCA9jYIBj-voqNviG39UqNMEWksjoqZg3EFWjK9mdIhCafATQQa5fOHIA-o6Cj0gIHY2RfZ4zWgYRFQoOpYhM7ouyRFsqOc_h5auV2DLOcFUd9_\/s320\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%2012.51%E2%80%AFPM.jpeg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• During the day, The AIA\/Deltek's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate)."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1880572791767651854"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1880572791767651854"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/wednesday-architecture-billings-index.html","title":"Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiIm9xbQyXKNYZiV-6nWVP0pDuvWNJUIzVRBjk0Lgi7t83j4Goi5-G_ihzKz7NOAUz0MURoTYCA9jYIBj-voqNviG39UqNMEWksjoqZg3EFWjK9mdIhCafATQQa5fOHIA-o6Cj0gIHY2RfZ4zWgYRFQoOpYhM7ouyRFsqOc_h5auV2DLOcFUd9_\/s72-c\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%2012.51%E2%80%AFPM.jpeg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4908065747220994842"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-21T15:46:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-21T15:46:34.413-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"A Few Photos from Patagonia"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here are a few photos from my trip to Patagonia:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVDO1cDWok35v9vSyFIF-VLuQ1-C6-rfq54eSRFSD5CZXx91bIa7dpgWhmv9M9r6lltdT-sTWiBPvdwrc-rztqoHJTPysrXzCdAMzfHcmzwcnEKWBLIziRX00lossjMvlSJQkPMOU3BB2oCGqeA_zip0Wkz48SPi4J5pk0-TjtPhwX-Fxi0Ptx\/s5712\/IMG_3455.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Cape Horn Albatross\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVDO1cDWok35v9vSyFIF-VLuQ1-C6-rfq54eSRFSD5CZXx91bIa7dpgWhmv9M9r6lltdT-sTWiBPvdwrc-rztqoHJTPysrXzCdAMzfHcmzwcnEKWBLIziRX00lossjMvlSJQkPMOU3BB2oCGqeA_zip0Wkz48SPi4J5pk0-TjtPhwX-Fxi0Ptx\/s320\/IMG_3455.jpeg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first photo is at Cape Horn with a friend since high school.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWe were lucky to able to go ashore!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe albatross is a memorial to all the sailors that lost their lives sailing around the Cape.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is a poem on a plaque near the monument.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ci\u003E\"I am the albatross that awaits you\u0026nbsp;at the end of the world.\u003Cbr \/\u003EI am the forgotten souls of dead mariners who crossed Cape Horn from every sea on Earth.\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut they did not die in the raging waves; today they fly on my wings toward eternity, in the last crevice of the Antarctic winds.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\nby Sara Vial\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhlO3UezQA2lSf4itDk6E4ZEIjx4KsJGf__CiV_mgDdflEw6nU2XsxG9G2DJptBMTNkJqHf9CIM61OJCJOaozodldo8t9nJgRjfczzgXsRYLI0eCnrYId_PXLujWuC-ny7uSSrF6coSc4R_2pPSIGlD_pfDitCAvVQkYyj8H-V9vtQtW0kGg718\/s4028\/975D878F-E4F9-475E-9F51-5AA4A8203D02.jpg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Torres del Paine National Park\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhlO3UezQA2lSf4itDk6E4ZEIjx4KsJGf__CiV_mgDdflEw6nU2XsxG9G2DJptBMTNkJqHf9CIM61OJCJOaozodldo8t9nJgRjfczzgXsRYLI0eCnrYId_PXLujWuC-ny7uSSrF6coSc4R_2pPSIGlD_pfDitCAvVQkYyj8H-V9vtQtW0kGg718\/s320\/975D878F-E4F9-475E-9F51-5AA4A8203D02.jpg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second photo is at Torres del Paine National Park.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis shows the granite towers and horns.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe \"horns\" are sedimentary rock (black) on top of granite (gray).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe park is known for ferocious wind gusts - and it did not disappoint!\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhB1nQ2zElhUWi8yMAlI2EYhzx535qpwkskNCJCC2_qk7P646aH3yHt2bbjGo6ggHhoI9YmYLweFutdh673nZbBJp5Ibt8rCQOBYlm8ebDztQ86JVXQ3YkSLhLTmsRkPW_Ipgn0TEVKDfnNQv3eHGmRTAGVA-gCrTB8Cs9RZONw6wkinY5XFZ0E\/s4032\/IMG_3601.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Torres del Paine National Park\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhB1nQ2zElhUWi8yMAlI2EYhzx535qpwkskNCJCC2_qk7P646aH3yHt2bbjGo6ggHhoI9YmYLweFutdh673nZbBJp5Ibt8rCQOBYlm8ebDztQ86JVXQ3YkSLhLTmsRkPW_Ipgn0TEVKDfnNQv3eHGmRTAGVA-gCrTB8Cs9RZONw6wkinY5XFZ0E\/s320\/IMG_3601.jpeg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe third photo is also at Torres del Paine National Park.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is at Gray Glacier Lake.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis lake is known for the bright blue icebergs - and there was a large one close to shore when we arrived.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\"Paine\" means blue in the indigenous language, so the park is named after the towers and the amazing blue lakes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe wind was gusting up to 85 knots when I took this photo.   You had to lean into the winds at times.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nA great trip!\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4908065747220994842"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4908065747220994842"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/a-few-photos-from-patagonia.html","title":"A Few Photos from Patagonia"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVDO1cDWok35v9vSyFIF-VLuQ1-C6-rfq54eSRFSD5CZXx91bIa7dpgWhmv9M9r6lltdT-sTWiBPvdwrc-rztqoHJTPysrXzCdAMzfHcmzwcnEKWBLIziRX00lossjMvlSJQkPMOU3BB2oCGqeA_zip0Wkz48SPi4J5pk0-TjtPhwX-Fxi0Ptx\/s72-c\/IMG_3455.jpeg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9012854810517012822"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-21T12:19:00.003-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-21T12:19:17.786-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-early-read-on-september-existing\"\u003ELawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EFrom housing economist Tom Lawler:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EEarly Read on Existing Home Sales in September\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBased on publicly-available local realtor\/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in September,\u003C\/b\u003E unchanged from August’s preliminary pace (which looked too high relative to state and local realtor data) and up 2.6% last September’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % increase, reflecting this September’s higher business day count relative to last September’s.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nLocal realtor\/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 23rd at 10:00 AM.  The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2024 at 3.90 million SAAR.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is also an update on MBS Yields and Spreads in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9012854810517012822"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9012854810517012822"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/lawler-early-read-on-september-existing.html","title":"Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3696184612260214377"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-21T11:31:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-21T11:31:00.113-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in October, Negative territory for 18 consecutive months"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Catching up ...\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 37, up from 32 last month.  Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom the NAHB: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nahb.org\/news-and-economics\/press-releases\/2025\/10\/amid-market-challenges-builder-expectations-rise-in-october\"\u003EAmid Market Challenges, Builder Expectations Rise in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EEven as builders continue to grapple with market and macroeconomic uncertainty, sentiment levels posted a solid gain in October as future sales expectations surpassed the 50-point breakeven mark for the first time since last January.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nBuilder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 37 in October\u003C\/b\u003E, up five points from September and the highest reading since April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“While recent declines for mortgage rates are an encouraging sign for affordability conditions, the market remains challenging,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “The housing market has some areas with firm demand, including smaller builders shifting to remodeling and ongoing solid conditions for the luxury market. However, most home buyers are still on the sidelines, waiting for mortgage rates to move lower.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“The HMI gain in October is a positive signal for 2026 as our forecast is for single-family housing starts to gain ground next year,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from just above 6.5% at the start of September to 6.3% in early October. Combined with anticipated further easing by the Fed, builders expect a slightly improving sales environment, albeit one in which persistent supply-side cost factors remain a challenge.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWith the government shutdown continuing and an expectation of no Census housing construction data for September being published this week, Dietz noted the following: “Based on modeling of historical data, the October increase for the HMI suggests an approximate 3% increase for the September single-family permit data on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis. Our model suggests a 2% to 4% range for the increase based on the statistical relationship.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn a sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that \u003Cb\u003E38% of builders reported cutting prices in October.\u003C\/b\u003E This share has alternated between 37% and 39% since June. Meanwhile, the average price reduction rose to 6% in October after averaging 5% for several months previously. The last time builders reduced prices by 6% was a year ago in October 2024. The use of sales incentives was 65% in October, unchanged from September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAll the HMI subindices rose in October. The component measuring current sales conditions increased four points to 38, the index gauging future sales jumped nine points to 54 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a four-point gain to 25.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nLooking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 46, the Midwest was unchanged at 42, the South increased two points to 31 and the West gained two points to 28.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003E\nemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiVeADVi5BKRek2cV6K1sKUcre3molciqAfohyR97kELBlhVa0r6QCFyBXBy8m0EBdKl-tYdjeO1q6e7cupm3KPwvUVat4ZmnrUHYpSs6JtRQly1mh338D-ksy3TF0tSacd_45rFX0GlzJlcg_xs2INLQ_SGvWh1cHgHzMKYXkCQrNdpNrrrhpR\/s1786\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%206.12%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"NAHB HMI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiVeADVi5BKRek2cV6K1sKUcre3molciqAfohyR97kELBlhVa0r6QCFyBXBy8m0EBdKl-tYdjeO1q6e7cupm3KPwvUVat4ZmnrUHYpSs6JtRQly1mh338D-ksy3TF0tSacd_45rFX0GlzJlcg_xs2INLQ_SGvWh1cHgHzMKYXkCQrNdpNrrrhpR\/s320\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%206.12%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: left; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe index has been below 50 for eighteen consecutive months.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3696184612260214377"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3696184612260214377"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/nahb-builder-confidence-increased-in.html","title":"NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in October, Negative territory for 18 consecutive months"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiVeADVi5BKRek2cV6K1sKUcre3molciqAfohyR97kELBlhVa0r6QCFyBXBy8m0EBdKl-tYdjeO1q6e7cupm3KPwvUVat4ZmnrUHYpSs6JtRQly1mh338D-ksy3TF0tSacd_45rFX0GlzJlcg_xs2INLQ_SGvWh1cHgHzMKYXkCQrNdpNrrrhpR\/s72-c\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%206.12%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-960337086498447804"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-21T08:47:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-21T08:47:00.882-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EContainer traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually \u003Cb\u003Esome hints about the trade report\u003C\/b\u003E since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.portoflosangeles.org\/business\/statistics\/container-statistics\"\u003ELos Angeles\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.polb.com\/economics\/stats\/latest_teus.asp\"\u003ELong Beach\u003C\/a\u003E in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EThe first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiniqi-CsyaP6yTDojG6HzrXS2OxTJFbPuaEVpQC14Uv3RttU4tKC8kfVPubQShpa27pH6La7sUMnVSfZOoieW-mB6R2Qn8lnW1gkFcVYSAwDVoRlysQdmhhaAt0WEb4_I83wrW8aIO6N_4C6ePRg0CRio8opzB45ZLQUUmkf5AdHeYRYJu-flS\/s1728\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%205.39%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"LA Area Port Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiniqi-CsyaP6yTDojG6HzrXS2OxTJFbPuaEVpQC14Uv3RttU4tKC8kfVPubQShpa27pH6La7sUMnVSfZOoieW-mB6R2Qn8lnW1gkFcVYSAwDVoRlysQdmhhaAt0WEb4_I83wrW8aIO6N_4C6ePRg0CRio8opzB45ZLQUUmkf5AdHeYRYJu-flS\/s320\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%205.39%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EUsually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EImports were down 7% YoY in September, and exports were down 2% YoY.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nTo remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiiRFf4LKAq4EmZdJMYDhxN8f9jaN33Zl3Ij7RX16dslV0qQhUirlrRWBuBkSD2Ws0VHaBxhmfVN71fKlcNpHjMvd4d3dtHx3JHCyiihN9lkS1x9qa9YPYhBMW4_9eMR-99ujGxQYJZZOXHr07GRf-HXo6kH75lmfCfkSamMMCrijtbqNiC15MJ\/s1720\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%205.38%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"LA Area Port Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiiRFf4LKAq4EmZdJMYDhxN8f9jaN33Zl3Ij7RX16dslV0qQhUirlrRWBuBkSD2Ws0VHaBxhmfVN71fKlcNpHjMvd4d3dtHx3JHCyiihN9lkS1x9qa9YPYhBMW4_9eMR-99ujGxQYJZZOXHr07GRf-HXo6kH75lmfCfkSamMMCrijtbqNiC15MJ\/s320\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%205.38%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EOn a rolling 12-month basis,\u0026nbsp;inbound traffic decreased 0.6% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOutbound traffic decreased 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is the 10th consecutive month with exports down YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/960337086498447804"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/960337086498447804"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/la-ports-imports-and-exports-down-yoy.html","title":"LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiniqi-CsyaP6yTDojG6HzrXS2OxTJFbPuaEVpQC14Uv3RttU4tKC8kfVPubQShpa27pH6La7sUMnVSfZOoieW-mB6R2Qn8lnW1gkFcVYSAwDVoRlysQdmhhaAt0WEb4_I83wrW8aIO6N_4C6ePRg0CRio8opzB45ZLQUUmkf5AdHeYRYJu-flS\/s72-c\/Image%2010-21-25%20at%205.39%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5616752360726138848"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-20T19:13:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-20T19:13:00.127-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhUMI7H40tIYFxUhMVKC01uADagOz8-5VcHmeiQSeZjpxGVeD3cRX42_HPmBSCkhk9Dhe-GYOjG4OWjTmI4Z7jMEwGXBUNsyYqrRQyzLIXjspBUVlKMd2y5gVnaV0OsmoiqMMcQLFru1-I6UhjrJQvAEwKQ12ofHS00VhtY3WuS9bIozNomQbs1\/s638\/Image%2010-20-25%20at%201.12%E2%80%AFPM.jpg\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhUMI7H40tIYFxUhMVKC01uADagOz8-5VcHmeiQSeZjpxGVeD3cRX42_HPmBSCkhk9Dhe-GYOjG4OWjTmI4Z7jMEwGXBUNsyYqrRQyzLIXjspBUVlKMd2y5gVnaV0OsmoiqMMcQLFru1-I6UhjrJQvAEwKQ12ofHS00VhtY3WuS9bIozNomQbs1\/s320\/Image%2010-20-25%20at%201.12%E2%80%AFPM.jpg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003EFrom Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-10202025\"\u003EAnother Boring Day With Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E[W]e're hanging out near 3 year lows with minimal volatility. In order to see sharper, more sustained momentum, we'd likely need the government shutdown to end. That would allow the most consequential economic reports (like the jobs report) to be released. It would also allow data collection to resume for future jobs reports.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBetween now and then, there is other data to guide the rate market, but it's just not as heavy hitting. This week is particularly light in that regard, but there's one exception. The BLS received an exception to compile September's CPI inflation data, to be released this Friday. It's not quite on par with the jobs report, but it can certainly get rates moving (for better or worse, depending on the details). [\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/\"\u003E30 year fixed 6.22%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nTuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• No major economic releases scheduled."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5616752360726138848"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5616752360726138848"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/tuesday-mortgage-rates-near-3-year-lows.html","title":"Tuesday: Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhUMI7H40tIYFxUhMVKC01uADagOz8-5VcHmeiQSeZjpxGVeD3cRX42_HPmBSCkhk9Dhe-GYOjG4OWjTmI4Z7jMEwGXBUNsyYqrRQyzLIXjspBUVlKMd2y5gVnaV0OsmoiqMMcQLFru1-I6UhjrJQvAEwKQ12ofHS00VhtY3WuS9bIozNomQbs1\/s72-c\/Image%2010-20-25%20at%201.12%E2%80%AFPM.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-582472976528356995"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-20T13:43:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-20T13:43:13.605-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/california-home-sales-up-66-year\"\u003ECalifornia Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EThe NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2024 at 3.90 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCalifornia reports Seasonally Adjusted (SA) sales and some measures of inventory whereas most of the local is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.car.org\/aboutus\/mediacenter\/newsreleases\/2025releases\/sept2025sales\"\u003ECalifornia home sales rebound in September with modest monthly and annual gains, C.A.R. says\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAfter five consecutive months of year-over-year declines, September home sales activity climbed 5 percent from the 264,240 homes sold in August and rose 6.6 percent from a year ago, when 260,340 homes were sold on an annualized basis. September marked the 36th straight month in which the seasonally adjusted sales rate remained below the 300,000 benchmark. ... \u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis is in line with national sales being up year-over-year.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/582472976528356995"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/582472976528356995"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/california-home-sales-up-66-year-over.html","title":"California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1978135846771913300"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-20T11:36:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-20T11:36:17.827-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing October 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week.\u0026nbsp; Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEinRC0yBhZdZ3AqWZGAvGSK_Fn0gFuQezlWj5mkPYjLaig7bG1spaJavWr0Lge6OeVg5-U6AKhDPhAQYhIIbwYOM-gAi2lGiBgBfrTHYk-19Hdwy78Yzwi3sM_svLcZGrY6k9J5d8kq5HfYD-dLa8BFOfjo8NY-RxErJaIoGAFUzcXprXDPR66R\/s1820\/Image%2010-20-25%20at%208.32%E2%80%AFAM.jpg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEinRC0yBhZdZ3AqWZGAvGSK_Fn0gFuQezlWj5mkPYjLaig7bG1spaJavWr0Lge6OeVg5-U6AKhDPhAQYhIIbwYOM-gAi2lGiBgBfrTHYk-19Hdwy78Yzwi3sM_svLcZGrY6k9J5d8kq5HfYD-dLa8BFOfjo8NY-RxErJaIoGAFUzcXprXDPR66R\/s320\/Image%2010-20-25%20at%208.32%E2%80%AFAM.jpg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe red line is for 2025.\u0026nbsp; The black line is for 2019.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory was up 16.1% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 17.0%), and down 8.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.5%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.\u0026nbsp; Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNzy9g1vW6T4d1VTzK8ZIi1CDXaIm9nlClWT3LTCEDVSV4TVdCu2JqeDrig15PsiYtDk9lhHon0r4uwECGJEIqvbRPAsG3BPoFk8VtwmPsbtG_1YL8wh59kApKXL5gEEpGq_Ux-gA5wratQ5I18g07sicGfGzTedoNbqpIx49p4C6xLDWdqY2g\/s2362\/Image%2010-5-25%20at%205.23%E2%80%AFPM.jpg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNzy9g1vW6T4d1VTzK8ZIi1CDXaIm9nlClWT3LTCEDVSV4TVdCu2JqeDrig15PsiYtDk9lhHon0r4uwECGJEIqvbRPAsG3BPoFk8VtwmPsbtG_1YL8wh59kApKXL5gEEpGq_Ux-gA5wratQ5I18g07sicGfGzTedoNbqpIx49p4C6xLDWdqY2g\/s320\/Image%2010-5-25%20at%205.23%E2%80%AFPM.jpg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis second inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nAs of October 17th, inventory was at 859 thousand (7-day average), compared to 857 thousand the prior week.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata and much more regularly on YouTube\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1978135846771913300"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1978135846771913300"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/housing-october-20th-weekly-update.html","title":"Housing October 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEinRC0yBhZdZ3AqWZGAvGSK_Fn0gFuQezlWj5mkPYjLaig7bG1spaJavWr0Lge6OeVg5-U6AKhDPhAQYhIIbwYOM-gAi2lGiBgBfrTHYk-19Hdwy78Yzwi3sM_svLcZGrY6k9J5d8kq5HfYD-dLa8BFOfjo8NY-RxErJaIoGAFUzcXprXDPR66R\/s72-c\/Image%2010-20-25%20at%208.32%E2%80%AFAM.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6380810542358026328"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-19T08:16:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-19T08:16:00.121-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The Long and Winding Road"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ENote: CR is on vacation until Oct 21st.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is the 21st year I've been writing this blog!\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EStarting in January 2005, I was \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2005\/04\/housing-speculation-is-key.html\"\u003Every bearish on housing\u003C\/a\u003E - and in early 2007, I predicted a recession.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHowever in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February 2009, I wrote: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/02\/looking-for-sun.html\"\u003ELooking for the Sun\u003C\/a\u003E (Note: that post shocked many readers since I had been very bearish).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nA few years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, I called the bottom for housing: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/02\/housing-bottom-is-here.html\"\u003EThe Housing Bottom is Here\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThen I spent a number of years arguing against the recession callers, and the new housing bubble calls. A few examples:\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn 2015, I wrote\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/12\/the-endless-parade-of-recession-calls.html\"\u003EThe Endless Parade of Recession Calls\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EFor the last 6+ years, there have been an endless parade of incorrect recession calls. The most reported was probably the multiple recession calls from ECRI in 2011 and 2012.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd I updated that post several times.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd on housing, over seven years ago, in January 2018, I was quoted in a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-01-22\/housing-bears-hibernate-as-u-s-homebuilders-swagger-into-2018\"\u003EBloomberg article\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EBill McBride, who runs the Calculated Risk blog and also called the crash, doesn’t think home prices are inflated this time around. Unlike in 2005, lenders are acting responsibly and the Wild West of real estate speculation hasn’t returned, he said. There is less to speculate on, too. Compared with the overbuilding that preceded the bust, today’s pace of construction isn’t fast enough, he said.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Lending standards are still pretty good,” McBride said, and he doesn’t expect mortgage rates to “take off” in the short term.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAnd in December 2018, I disagreed with Professor Shiller \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2018\/12\/a-comment-on-professor-shillers-housing.html\"\u003EA comment on Professor Shiller's \"The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?\"\u003C\/a\u003E.  My conclusion: \u003Cblockquote\u003ENo big deal, and definitely not a \"gigantic\" boom in house prices.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EIn 2021, I wrote: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/is-there-new-housing-bubble.html\"\u003EIs there a New Housing Bubble?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe lack of wild speculation doesn't mean house prices can't decline, but it means that we won't see cascading declines in prices like what happened when the housing bubble burst.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom a historical perspective, house prices are high.  But lending standards have been solid, and we haven't seen significant speculation - so I wouldn't call this a bubble.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAlso in 2021, I started my \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ereal estate newsletter\u003C\/a\u003E. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: for $25 you can read the entire archive and one month of daily posts - but make sure you cancel or substack will bill you every month! For $100, you will usually receive 4 to 6 articles per week for a year, you can read the archive and comment on all the posts.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EA few key articles:\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ch1 class=\"post-title published title-X77sOw\" dir=\"auto\" style=\"-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; caret-color: rgb(54, 55, 55); color: #363737; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, var(--font-family-title))); font-size: var(--font-size-32); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: var(--line-height-36); margin: 0px; unicode-bidi: isolate;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-and-demographics-the-next\"\u003EHousing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/h1\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ch1 class=\"post-title published title-X77sOw\" dir=\"auto\" style=\"-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; caret-color: rgb(54, 55, 55); color: #363737; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, var(--font-family-title))); font-size: var(--font-size-32); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: var(--line-height-36); margin: 0px; unicode-bidi: isolate;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-dont-compare-the-current\"\u003EHousing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/h1\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ch1 class=\"post-title published title-X77sOw\" dir=\"auto\" style=\"-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; caret-color: rgb(54, 55, 55); color: #363737; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, var(--font-family-title))); font-size: var(--font-size-32); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: var(--line-height-36); margin: 0px; unicode-bidi: isolate;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/household-formation-drives-housing\"\u003EHousehold Formation Drives Housing Demand\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/h1\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ch1 class=\"post-title published title-X77sOw\" dir=\"auto\" style=\"-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; caret-color: rgb(54, 55, 55); color: #363737; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, var(--font-family-title))); font-size: var(--font-size-32); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: var(--line-height-36); margin: 0px; unicode-bidi: isolate;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/the-long-term-housing-and-population\"\u003EThe Long-Term Housing and Population Shift\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/h1\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EStay tuned!\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6380810542358026328"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6380810542358026328"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/the-long-and-winding-road_01766011619.html","title":"The Long and Winding Road"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8742652477200775182"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-18T08:11:00.037-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-21T15:47:10.960-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of October 19, 2025"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ENOTE: I'm on vacation and returning this week.   Government data might be rescheduled due to the government shutdown.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe key economic report this week is September Existing Home sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor manufacturing, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, October 20th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNo major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, October 21st -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNo major economic releases scheduled.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, October 22nd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nDuring the day: The AIA\/Deltek's \u003Cb\u003EArchitecture Billings Index\u003C\/b\u003E for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, October 23rd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EChicago Fed National Activity Index\u003C\/b\u003E for September.  This is a composite index of other data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgTgAET98SLxmwibFF9Sfq7FJWCgUdx0FPknxOdvUGg-KpXjZhC2kbAqdgDKvamGCzeo58ZPiaXMeROG3DmYvYxh1aX2zA4AHBdahDUPyayadS6a84pESs9xQcOfs4NK4K3iUqxxaFjVr0q498KPYHi7zkkPZu1AqM7o9m33GeLrTU1LaHCz0nl\/s1077\/EHSAug2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgTgAET98SLxmwibFF9Sfq7FJWCgUdx0FPknxOdvUGg-KpXjZhC2kbAqdgDKvamGCzeo58ZPiaXMeROG3DmYvYxh1aX2zA4AHBdahDUPyayadS6a84pESs9xQcOfs4NK4K3iUqxxaFjVr0q498KPYHi7zkkPZu1AqM7o9m33GeLrTU1LaHCz0nl\/s320\/EHSAug2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EExisting Home Sales\u003C\/b\u003E for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). \u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n11:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EKansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, October 24th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: CPI."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8742652477200775182"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8742652477200775182"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/schedule-for-week-of-october-19-2025.html","title":"Schedule for Week of October 19, 2025"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgTgAET98SLxmwibFF9Sfq7FJWCgUdx0FPknxOdvUGg-KpXjZhC2kbAqdgDKvamGCzeo58ZPiaXMeROG3DmYvYxh1aX2zA4AHBdahDUPyayadS6a84pESs9xQcOfs4NK4K3iUqxxaFjVr0q498KPYHi7zkkPZu1AqM7o9m33GeLrTU1LaHCz0nl\/s72-c\/EHSAug2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1729357663312354166"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-17T08:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-17T08:11:00.148-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"On Recession Calls"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From March 2013: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2013\/03\/business-cycles-and-markets.html\"\u003EBusiness Cycles and Markets\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nI've been asked several times about the recent ECRI recession call (obviously I disagreed with their incorrect recession call in 2011 - I wasn't even on recession watch then and I'm not on recession watch now - and I also think ECRI is wrong about a recession starting in mid-2012). ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIt seems to me ECRI is trying to make this an academic exercise and hoping for some significant downward revisions. Right now the data doesn't indicate a recession in 2012, but, as Menzie Chinn notes, \"all of these series will be revised, so one wouldn’t want to state definitively we are not in a recession – therein lies the path to embarrassment. But the case still has to be made for recession.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBut why do we care? ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWhy is there so much focus on the business cycle? For companies, especially cyclical companies, the reason is obvious – it helps with planning, staffing and investment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBut why are investors so focused on the business cycle? Obviously earnings decline in a recession, and stock prices fall too. The following graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in the S\u0026amp;P 500 (using average monthly prices) since 1970. Notice that the market usually declines YoY in a recession.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSo calling a recession isn’t just an academic exercise, there is some opportunity to preserve capital.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nNote: From June 2015:  \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/06\/ecris-admits-incorrect-recession-call.html\"\u003EECRI Admits Incorrect Recession Call\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCR Note: I will be returning on October 21st (unless I change my mind or get lost), and I should start posting soon.  Best to all!"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1729357663312354166"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1729357663312354166"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/on-recession-calls.html","title":"On Recession Calls"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1862604752322734987"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-16T08:11:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-16T08:11:00.126-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"2012: Calling the House Price Bottom"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on October 21st.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn 2005 and 2006, I was researching previous housing bubble \/ busts to try to predict what would happen following the bursting of the housing bubble.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSo, in April 2008, when many pundits were calling the housing bottom, I wrote: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2008\/04\/housing-bust-duration.html\"\u003EHousing Bust Duration\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nAfter another year (or two) of rapidly falling prices, it's very likely that real prices will continue to fall - but at a slower pace. During the last few years of the bust, real prices will be flat or decline slowly - and the conventional wisdom will be that homes are a poor investment.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Los Angeles bust took 86 months in real terms from peak to trough (about 7 years) using the Case-Shiller index. If the Composite 20 bust takes a similar amount of time, the real price bottom will happen in early 2013 or so.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nAnd then in February 2012 I wrote: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2008\/04\/housing-bust-duration.html\"\u003EThe Housing Bottom is Here\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nThere are several reasons I think that house prices are close to a bottom. First prices are close to normal looking at the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/01\/real-house-prices-and-house-price-to.html\"\u003Eprice-to-rent ratio and real prices\u003C\/a\u003E (especially if prices fall another 4% to 5% NSA between the November Case-Shiller report and the March report). Second the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/01\/existing-home-sales-in-december-461.html\"\u003Elarge decline in listed inventory\u003C\/a\u003E means less downward pressure on house prices, and third, I think that several \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/01\/few-policies-i-expect-soon.html\"\u003Epolicy initiatives\u003C\/a\u003E will lessen the pressure from distressed sales (the probable mortgage settlement, the HARP refinance program, and more).\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nAnd in March 2013, I wrote about the two bottoms - one for activity and the other for prices: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2013\/03\/housing-two-bottoms.html\"\u003EHousing: The Two Bottoms\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nI pointed out there are usually two bottoms for housing: the first for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment, and the second bottom is for house prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n[I]t appears activity bottomed in 2009 through 2011 (depending on the measure) and house prices bottomed in early 2012.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1862604752322734987"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1862604752322734987"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/2012-calling-house-price-bottom.html","title":"2012: Calling the House Price Bottom"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4409593231661316629"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-15T08:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-15T08:11:00.119-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"2009: Calling the Bottom for the Economy"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on October 21st.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn early 2009, many analysts were predicting the 2nd Great Depression.  However I started seeing some positive signs ... and I was able to call the end of the recession in mid-2009.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom January 2009: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/01\/vehicle-sales.html\"\u003EVehicle Sales\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nDavid Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch wrote a research piece last week: \"Not Your Father’s Recession ...(But Maybe Your Grandfather’s)\" (no link) \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNeedless to say, the piece wasn't too upbeat.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBut I was intrigued by some of the comments on vehicle sales.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nCurrently this ratio is at 23.9 years, the highest ever. This is an unsustainable level (I doubt most vehicles will last 24 years!), and the ratio will probably decline over the next few years. This could happen with vehicles being removed from the fleet, but more likely because of a sales increase.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSales won't increase right away (look at the depressed sales during the early '80s), but this does suggest that auto sales are closer to the bottom than the top, and that auto sales will increase significantly in the future - although sales in 2009 will probably be dismal.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nAnd from February 2009: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/02\/looking-for-sun.html\"\u003ELooking for the Sun\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\n2009 will be a grim economic year. The unemployment rate will rise all year, house prices will fall, commercial real estate (CRE) will get crushed ... but there might be a few rays of sunshine too.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nEven though most of the economic news will be ugly in 2009, my guess is all three of these series will find a bottom (or at least the pace of decline will slow significantly). This means that the drag on employment in these industries, and the drag on GDP, will slow or stop.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThese will be rays of sunshine in a very dark season. That doesn't mean a thaw, but it will be a beginning ...\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nCR Note: I do not have a crystal ball, but I was looking past the horrible day-to-day numbers and starting to see the end of the recession."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4409593231661316629"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4409593231661316629"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/2009-calling-bottom-for-economy.html","title":"2009: Calling the Bottom for the Economy"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6843137714841434388"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-14T16:56:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-14T16:56:00.249-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on October 21st.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn December 2007, most analysts were still dramitically underestimating the probably losses for lenders and financial institutions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHere is an article from the WSJ quoting a crazy blogger: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2007\/12\/27\/how-high-will-subprime-losses-go\/\"\u003EHow High Will Subprime Losses Go? \u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nThe global race is on to find the best phrase to describe the housing and credit mess. The U.K.’s Telegraph quotes an economist who says it “could make 1929 look like a walk in the park” if central banks don’t solve the crisis in a matter of weeks.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe report cites the recent prediction from Barclays Capital that losses from the subprime-mortgage meltdown could hit $700 billion. That would top Merrill Lynch’s recent estimate of $500 billion. The Australian newspaper notes that a $700 billion “bloodbath” — potentially leading the U.S. economy into “the blackest year since the Great Depression” — would top the GDPs of all but 15 nations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBack in the U.S., the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/calculatedrisk.blogspot.com\/2007\/12\/bofa-attitudes-changing-towards-default.html\"\u003ECalculated Risk blog\u003C\/a\u003E sidestepped the colorful language and went straight for the big number: “The losses for the lenders and investors might well be over $1 trillion.”\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nMany people thought I was crazy.  But losses for lenders and financial institutions ended up over $1 Trillion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd if you look at the post the WSJ referenced, the first paragraph starts: \"Within the next couple of years, probably somewhere between 10 million and 20 million U.S. homeowners will owe more on their homes, than their homes are worth.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI was a grizzly bear!"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6843137714841434388"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6843137714841434388"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/2007-trillion-dollar-bear.html","title":"2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7971060273877968307"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-13T08:11:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-13T08:11:00.162-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"From 2007 and 2008: The Compleat UberNerd"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"CR Note: On vacation. I will return on October 21st (If I don't get lost!)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn December 2006, my friend Doris \"Tanta\" Dungey started writing for Calculated Risk.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom December 2006, until she passed away from ovarian cancer on Nov 30, 2008, Tanta was my co-blogger. Tanta worked as a mortgage banker for 20 years, and we started chatting in early 2005 about the housing bubble and the changes in lending practices. In 2006, Tanta was diagnosed with late stage cancer, and she took an extended medical leave while undergoing treatment. While on medical leave she wrote for this blog, and her writings received widespread attention and acclaim.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIf you want to understand the mortgage industry, read Tanta's posts (here is \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2007\/07\/compleat-ubernerd.html\"\u003EThe Compleat UberNerd\u003C\/a\u003E and a \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2008\/12\/compendium-of-tantas-posts.html\"\u003ECompendium of Tanta's Posts\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAs an example, here is a brief excerpt from \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2007\/04\/foreclosure-sales-and-reo-for-ubernerds.html\"\u003EForeclosure Sales and REO For UberNerds\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nThe following is not an exhaustive discussion of all of the issues involved in foreclosures and REO. It’s a start at unpacking some of the concepts and definitions. We have been seeing, and are going to continue to see, a lot of information presented on foreclosure sales, REO sales, and their impacts on existing home transaction volumes and prices in various market areas. As always with “UberNerd” posts, this is long and excruciating. Proceed with typical motivation as you may consider your own best interest in an open market in blog postings.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nAnd an excerpts from \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2007\/02\/tanta-mortgage-servicing-for-ubernerds.html\"\u003EMortgage Servicing for UberNerds\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nStillLearning asked in the comments about mortgage servicing, and since y’all are nerds, not dummies, here’s my highly-selective occasionally-oversimplified summary for you that skips the boring parts like how your check gets out of the “lockbox” and that stuff. We can discuss extra-credit issues like “excess servicing” and “subservicing” and “SFAS 144 meets MSR” and “negative convexity” and other kinds of inside baseball in the comments. There is a lot that can be said about loan servicing, but let’s start with the basics:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nServicers have two major types of servicing portfolio: loans they service for themselves and loans they service for other investors. In accounting terms, the “compensation” is the same, meaning that even if you are the noteholder, you pay yourself to service the loans in the same way that an outside investor would pay you, and it shows on the books that way. The differences in compensation stem from the basic fact that one is generally more motivated to do a good job servicing (particularly collecting and efficiently liquidating REO) for one’s own investment than for someone else’s.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nAlso see \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2008\/12\/in-memoriam-doris-tanta-dungey.html\"\u003EIn Memoriam: Doris \"Tanta\" Dungey\u003C\/a\u003E for photos, links to obituaries in the NY Times, Washington Post and much more."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7971060273877968307"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7971060273877968307"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/from-2007-and-2008-compleat-ubernerd.html","title":"From 2007 and 2008: The Compleat UberNerd"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7021064246171078264"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-11T08:11:00.068-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-11T08:11:00.112-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of October 12, 2025"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ENOTE: I'm on vacation returning next week.   Government data might be rescheduled due to the government shutdown.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\nThe key economic reports this week are September CPI, Retail Sales and Housing Starts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, October 13th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EColumbus Day Holiday\u003C\/b\u003E: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, October 14th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n6:00 AM: NFIB \u003Cb\u003ESmall Business Optimism Index\u003C\/b\u003E for September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, October 15th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EConsumer Price Index for September\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed \u003Cb\u003EEmpire State manufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:00 PM: the \u003Cb\u003EFederal Reserve Beige Book\u003C\/b\u003E, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, October 16th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for September\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM ET: The Philly Fed \u003Cb\u003Emanufacturing survey\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgyQAJ5i6_-o7HchkeDEf_HIcJP7RZ0kDBQMMBvibGIa_y5CrGK58lW2VAwqIRXaYfB5XhdWK3THLP4Gc57gSevlpTwiVCObGMA6xIIkdLlQId6oekGc7h-etHmEQytkQGC1cAtvyb3h56fN8nbDT20qunFmPj3CFeCI8-_iVu_qjrq2d5YNqos\/s1043\/RetailAUg2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Retail Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgyQAJ5i6_-o7HchkeDEf_HIcJP7RZ0kDBQMMBvibGIa_y5CrGK58lW2VAwqIRXaYfB5XhdWK3THLP4Gc57gSevlpTwiVCObGMA6xIIkdLlQId6oekGc7h-etHmEQytkQGC1cAtvyb3h56fN8nbDT20qunFmPj3CFeCI8-_iVu_qjrq2d5YNqos\/s320\/RetailAUg2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003ERetail sales\u003C\/b\u003E for September will be released. \u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: The October \u003Cb\u003ENAHB homebuilder survey\u003C\/b\u003E. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, October 17th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgwP_0bdU8Amwnc2FGJwF5DXlY9VR8veE6oozmHKciTkzYpCMzn9SKZ9I2PiWXFX4g9Ohx4_GExlLzgw2zyiKkajSrCavAy7P73acSw6z4c0URdkgmSCGFOdiVoZG_GA-Gk9izHSCqZDrZxhvgC8QzoN9aLCckXK7aThzhTi-UeW4TwC9YzQ8H7\/s1015\/StartsShortAug2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgwP_0bdU8Amwnc2FGJwF5DXlY9VR8veE6oozmHKciTkzYpCMzn9SKZ9I2PiWXFX4g9Ohx4_GExlLzgw2zyiKkajSrCavAy7P73acSw6z4c0URdkgmSCGFOdiVoZG_GA-Gk9izHSCqZDrZxhvgC8QzoN9aLCckXK7aThzhTi-UeW4TwC9YzQ8H7\/s320\/StartsShortAug2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EHousing Starts\u003C\/b\u003E for September. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg01nkz0uLsV_JixJfrH7tzgsaPzEFZY_jeL13L-jp_jK0e7LoCJ6xbrenG2uARRDyttJX7v_-Pf1UHp1xOSE6ygIZAEs1qgM81wDOHhRUK61uiCHJzxMA_CsFi4TARPvkM0pZTPnX2PtUr2Kg3b43JAhrByT4XkcgDS8hw1zx3eJh0buJgmvzd\/s1006\/IPAug2025.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Industrial Production\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg01nkz0uLsV_JixJfrH7tzgsaPzEFZY_jeL13L-jp_jK0e7LoCJ6xbrenG2uARRDyttJX7v_-Pf1UHp1xOSE6ygIZAEs1qgM81wDOHhRUK61uiCHJzxMA_CsFi4TARPvkM0pZTPnX2PtUr2Kg3b43JAhrByT4XkcgDS8hw1zx3eJh0buJgmvzd\/s320\/IPAug2025.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E9:15 AM: The Fed will release \u003Cb\u003EIndustrial Production and Capacity Utilization\u003C\/b\u003E for September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows industrial production since 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7021064246171078264"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7021064246171078264"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/schedule-for-week-of-october-12-2025.html","title":"Schedule for Week of October 12, 2025"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgyQAJ5i6_-o7HchkeDEf_HIcJP7RZ0kDBQMMBvibGIa_y5CrGK58lW2VAwqIRXaYfB5XhdWK3THLP4Gc57gSevlpTwiVCObGMA6xIIkdLlQId6oekGc7h-etHmEQytkQGC1cAtvyb3h56fN8nbDT20qunFmPj3CFeCI8-_iVu_qjrq2d5YNqos\/s72-c\/RetailAUg2025.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6342615904478773557"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-10T08:21:00.006-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-10T08:21:00.116-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"A year ago: Lance Lambert Interviews Me on the Housing Market"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ENote: CR is on vacation until Oct 21st.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis interview was in July 2024 and is still holding up!\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EI'm not sure about \"renowned\" but this interview hits several of the key points I've been discussing about housing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom Lance Lambert at ResiClub: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.resiclubanalytics.com\/p\/renowned-housing-analyst-predicted-2008-home-price-crash-weighs-current-market\"\u003ERenowned housing analyst who predicted the 2008 home price crash weighs in on the current market\u003C\/a\u003E Here is the intro:\u003Cblockquote\u003EYears before the housing bubble burst in 2008, housing analyst Bill McBride began chronicling the troubles in the U.S. housing market in his blog Calculated Risk.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNot only did he predict the crash, but he also called the 2012 housing price bottom. Fast-forward to 2024, and this cycle he hasn’t been as concerned as he was in 2007.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nMcBride has maintained for the past few years that this housing cycle will ultimately resemble something closer to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/06\/comparing-current-housing-market-to.html?utm_source=www.resiclubanalytics.com\u0026amp;utm_medium=referral\u0026amp;utm_campaign=renowned-housing-analyst-who-predicted-the-2008-home-price-crash-weighs-in-on-the-current-market\"\u003Ethe 1978 to 1982 period\u003C\/a\u003E—a time of overheated house price growth that saw spiked interest rates, strained affordability, crashed existing home sales volume, and yet no national home price crash—rather than the 2007-2011 national housing price crash years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nTo better understand Bill McBride's perspective on the current housing and economic cycle, ResiClub reached out and conducted a Q\u0026amp;A with him.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E  Enjoy!"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6342615904478773557"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6342615904478773557"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/a-year-ago-lance-lambert-interviews-me.html","title":"A year ago: Lance Lambert Interviews Me on the Housing Market"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7177000050085208059"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-09T09:31:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-09T09:31:00.143-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"December 2006: Tanta joined CR!"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"CR Note: On vacation. I will return on Tuesday, October 21st. (If I don't get lost!)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn December 2006, my friend Doris \"Tanta\" Dungey started writing for Calculated Risk.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWhen some people say that here are few women bloggers in finance and economics, I remind them that Tanta was the best of all of us!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom December 2006, until she passed away from ovarian cancer on Nov 30, 2008, Tanta was my co-blogger. Tanta worked as a mortgage banker for 20 years, and we started chatting in early 2005 about the housing bubble and the changes in lending practices. In 2006, Tanta was diagnosed with late stage cancer, and she took an extended medical leave while undergoing treatment. While on medical leave she wrote for this blog, and her writings received widespread attention and acclaim.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHere are excerpts from her first two posts:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom December 2006: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2006\/12\/tanta-let-slip-dogs-of-hell.html\"\u003ELet Slip the Dogs of Hell\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nI still haven’t gotten over the fact that there’s a “capital management” group out there having named itself “Cerberus”. Those of you who were not asleep in Miss Buttkicker’s Intro to Western Civ will recognize Cerberus; the rest of you may have picked up the mythological fix from its reprise as “Fluffy” in the first Harry Potter novel. Wherever you get your culture, Cerberus is the three-headed dog who guards the gates of Hell. It takes three heads to do that, of course, because it’s never clear, in theology or finance, whether the idea is to keep the righteous from falling into the pit or the demons from escaping out of it (the third head is busy meeting with the regulators).  Cerberus is relevant not just because it supplies me with today’s metaphor, but because it was the Biggest Dog of three (including Citigroup and Aozora, a Japanese bank) who in April bought a 51% stake in GMAC’s mega-mortgage operation, GM having, of course, once been renowned as one of the Big Three Automakers until it became one of the Big Three Financing Outfits With A Sideline In Cars. I tried to find a link for you to Aozora Bank’s announcement of the purchase, but the only press release I could find for that day involved the loss of customer data. They must have been so busy letting GMAC into the underworld that the dog head keeping the deposit tickets from getting out got distracted. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNow, I’m just a Little Mortgage Weenie, not a Big Finance Dog, but bear with me while I ask some stupid questions. Like: how do the Big Dogs maintain “diverse and flexible production channels” (i.e., little mortgage banker Puppies to sell you correspondent business and little broker Puppies to sell you wholesale business) when “market share currently held by top-tier players” expands to two-thirds (meaning less diverse off-load strategies for the Little Puppies in the “production channels,” putting them at further pipeline\/counterparty risk unless they become Bigger Puppies, which makes them competitors instead of “channels,”), while at the same time watching some of the Little Puppies (in whom the Big Dogs have a major equity stake) crawl under the porch to die? I know Citi doesn’t seem to have noticed that the “increased regulatory scrutiny” is not just of “products” but of “wholesale operational\/management controls,” but I did.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nAnd from December 2006: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2006\/12\/tanta-on-hybrids-teasers-and-other.html\"\u003EOn Hybrids, Teasers, and Other Mortgage Guidance Problems\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nFirst of all, a “hybrid ARM” is called a “hybrid” because it is, basically, a cross between a fixed rate and adjustable rate mortgage. Before the early 90s, an “ARM” basically meant a one-year ARM. The initial interest rate was set for one year, and the rate adjusted every year. The only real variations on this theme involved shortening the adjustment frequency: you could get an ARM that adjusted every six months instead of one year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAround the early 90s, the “hybrid ARM” was introduced. It had an initial period in which the rate was “fixed” that didn’t match the subsequent adjustment frequency: this is the classic 3\/1, 5\/1, 7\/1, and even 10\/1 ARM. The whole idea of the hybrid ARM was to provide a kind of medium-range risk\/reward tradeoff for borrowers and lenders.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nCR Note: If you want to understand the mortgage industry, read Tanta's posts (here is \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2007\/07\/compleat-ubernerd.html\"\u003EThe Compleat UberNerd\u003C\/a\u003E and a \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2008\/12\/compendium-of-tantas-posts.html\"\u003ECompendium of Tanta's Posts\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAlso see \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2008\/12\/in-memoriam-doris-tanta-dungey.html\"\u003EIn Memoriam: Doris \"Tanta\" Dungey\u003C\/a\u003E for photos, links to obituaries in the NY Times, Washington Post and much more."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7177000050085208059"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7177000050085208059"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/december-2006-tanta-joined-cr.html","title":"December 2006: Tanta joined CR!"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6152051429985151732"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-08T11:08:00.002-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-08T11:08:37.835-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one \nweek earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage\nApplications Survey for the week ending October 3, 2025.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.7 percent on\na seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5\npercent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous\nweek and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase\nIndex decreased 1 percent from one week earlier.\u003C\/b\u003E The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent\ncompared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally\ndeclined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications,” said Mike Fratantoni,\nMBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Refinance volume remains somewhat elevated relative to levels of a\nmonth ago. Purchase activity declined by about 1 percent for the week but continues to show moderate\ngrowth on an annual basis, and stronger growth for FHA loans, favored by first-time homebuyers.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAdded Fratantoni, “The ARM share increased to 9.5 percent last week from 8.4 percent the prior week.\nOur survey shows 5\/1 ARM rates are averaging almost a percentage point below 30-year fixed rates, and\n  this differential is leading more purchase and refinance applicants to consider ARMs.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003Eon the road, no graphs this week!"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6152051429985151732"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6152051429985151732"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8281130115428619104"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-08T08:11:00.054-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-08T08:11:00.109-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The Long and Winding Road"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cspan style=\"color: red;\"\u003ENote: CR is on vacation until Oct 21st.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is the 21st year I've been writing this blog!\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EStarting in January 2005, I was \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2005\/04\/housing-speculation-is-key.html\"\u003Every bearish on housing\u003C\/a\u003E - and in early 2007, I predicted a recession.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHowever in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February 2009, I wrote: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/02\/looking-for-sun.html\"\u003ELooking for the Sun\u003C\/a\u003E (Note: that post shocked many readers since I had been very bearish).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nA few years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, I called the bottom for housing: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/02\/housing-bottom-is-here.html\"\u003EThe Housing Bottom is Here\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThen I spent a number of years arguing against the recession callers, and the new housing bubble calls. A few examples:\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIn 2015, I wrote\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2015\/12\/the-endless-parade-of-recession-calls.html\"\u003EThe Endless Parade of Recession Calls\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EFor the last 6+ years, there have been an endless parade of incorrect recession calls. The most reported was probably the multiple recession calls from ECRI in 2011 and 2012.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd I updated that post several times.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd on housing, over seven years ago, in January 2018, I was quoted in a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-01-22\/housing-bears-hibernate-as-u-s-homebuilders-swagger-into-2018\"\u003EBloomberg article\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EBill McBride, who runs the Calculated Risk blog and also called the crash, doesn’t think home prices are inflated this time around. Unlike in 2005, lenders are acting responsibly and the Wild West of real estate speculation hasn’t returned, he said. There is less to speculate on, too. Compared with the overbuilding that preceded the bust, today’s pace of construction isn’t fast enough, he said.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Lending standards are still pretty good,” McBride said, and he doesn’t expect mortgage rates to “take off” in the short term.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EAnd in December 2018, I disagreed with Professor Shiller \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2018\/12\/a-comment-on-professor-shillers-housing.html\"\u003EA comment on Professor Shiller's \"The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?\"\u003C\/a\u003E.  My conclusion: \u003Cblockquote\u003ENo big deal, and definitely not a \"gigantic\" boom in house prices.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EIn 2021, I wrote: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2021\/04\/is-there-new-housing-bubble.html\"\u003EIs there a New Housing Bubble?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe lack of wild speculation doesn't mean house prices can't decline, but it means that we won't see cascading declines in prices like what happened when the housing bubble burst.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom a historical perspective, house prices are high.  But lending standards have been solid, and we haven't seen significant speculation - so I wouldn't call this a bubble.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAlso in 2021, I started my \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ereal estate newsletter\u003C\/a\u003E. \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: for $25 you can read the entire archive and one month of daily posts - but make sure you cancel or substack will bill you every month! For $100, you will usually receive 4 to 6 articles per week for a year, you can read the archive and comment on all the posts.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EA few key articles:\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ch1 class=\"post-title published title-X77sOw\" dir=\"auto\" style=\"-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; caret-color: rgb(54, 55, 55); color: #363737; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, var(--font-family-title))); font-size: var(--font-size-32); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: var(--line-height-36); margin: 0px; unicode-bidi: isolate;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-and-demographics-the-next\"\u003EHousing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/h1\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ch1 class=\"post-title published title-X77sOw\" dir=\"auto\" style=\"-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; caret-color: rgb(54, 55, 55); color: #363737; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, var(--font-family-title))); font-size: var(--font-size-32); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: var(--line-height-36); margin: 0px; unicode-bidi: isolate;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/housing-dont-compare-the-current\"\u003EHousing: Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/h1\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ch1 class=\"post-title published title-X77sOw\" dir=\"auto\" style=\"-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; caret-color: rgb(54, 55, 55); color: #363737; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, var(--font-family-title))); font-size: var(--font-size-32); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: var(--line-height-36); margin: 0px; unicode-bidi: isolate;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/household-formation-drives-housing\"\u003EHousehold Formation Drives Housing Demand\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/h1\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ch1 class=\"post-title published title-X77sOw\" dir=\"auto\" style=\"-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; caret-color: rgb(54, 55, 55); color: #363737; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, var(--font-family-title))); font-size: var(--font-size-32); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: var(--line-height-36); margin: 0px; unicode-bidi: isolate;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/the-long-term-housing-and-population\"\u003EThe Long-Term Housing and Population Shift\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/h1\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EStay tuned!\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8281130115428619104"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8281130115428619104"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/the-long-and-winding-road.html","title":"The Long and Winding Road"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1943394364266622217"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-07T20:00:00.000-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-07T20:00:00.113-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk on Vacation until October 21st"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I'll be lost in the wilderness - with little wifi - until probably October 21st.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nBest to all!"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1943394364266622217"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1943394364266622217"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/calculated-risk-on-vacation-until.html","title":"Calculated Risk on Vacation until October 21st"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5663859507964897748"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-07T14:11:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-07T14:11:00.111-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined Slightly in September; Up 2% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Manheim Consulting today: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/site.manheim.com\/en\/services\/consulting\/used-vehicle-value-index.html\"\u003EWholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline Slightly in September\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down slightly in September compared to August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 207.0, lower by 0.2% versus August levels but showing \u003Cb\u003Ean increase of 2% from a year ago\u003C\/b\u003E. The seasonal adjustment caused the index to decrease for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values moved slightly higher in September. The non-adjusted price in September increased just 0.1% compared to August, moving the unadjusted average price higher by 2.1% year over year. The long-term move on average for non-seasonally adjusted values is a decline of 0.3% in the month, demonstrating that the unadjusted depreciation trends in September were less than normally seen.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003E\u003Ci\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiZeFNWoUsCnf1BH7sItUkXjGuu_45IeoMWRyiJLMWVrFTFCH5uKZ3O_PtEGskjbRhNV7RXV59wb391DCYNS1lSIynNyY8VFxR113XpCj6nyPq1GBo-2yrKXpreNHSGDe344AR3tWIpIDxBHE9A-i2nPOLzBclfB_ieJ-3MQiEyCAGOXYdhvbF2\/s2582\/Image%2010-7-25%20at%207.44%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiZeFNWoUsCnf1BH7sItUkXjGuu_45IeoMWRyiJLMWVrFTFCH5uKZ3O_PtEGskjbRhNV7RXV59wb391DCYNS1lSIynNyY8VFxR113XpCj6nyPq1GBo-2yrKXpreNHSGDe344AR3tWIpIDxBHE9A-i2nPOLzBclfB_ieJ-3MQiEyCAGOXYdhvbF2\/s320\/Image%2010-7-25%20at%207.44%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe Manheim index suggests used car prices were declined slightly in September (seasonally adjusted) and were up 2% YoY.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5663859507964897748"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5663859507964897748"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/wholesale-used-car-prices-declined.html","title":"Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined Slightly in September; Up 2% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiZeFNWoUsCnf1BH7sItUkXjGuu_45IeoMWRyiJLMWVrFTFCH5uKZ3O_PtEGskjbRhNV7RXV59wb391DCYNS1lSIynNyY8VFxR113XpCj6nyPq1GBo-2yrKXpreNHSGDe344AR3tWIpIDxBHE9A-i2nPOLzBclfB_ieJ-3MQiEyCAGOXYdhvbF2\/s72-c\/Image%2010-7-25%20at%207.44%E2%80%AFAM.jpeg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8566434037110893639"},"published":{"$t":"2025-10-07T08:18:00.001-04:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2025-10-07T08:18:25.102-04:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-cef\"\u003E1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ETracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSeptember sales will be mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates averaged 6.72% in July and 6.59% in August (lower than for closed sales in July).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi34iJRDOutakbSTUVVgtBLPuVDbg0WK9r-NLlU81wdDsb8YBpYMzmO4bHdBCbS8eiNSxwmJ4tz4d5vOCnp7gGbtNgU6EJGGv-Tkb3AknZYoyeCL1ym4dcICA3wMCSakHN7BkwQDtq8XQx_rYaxtG1_wMM3LUQKl0xF8Efzj4APAwzzH3DLHs45\/s1426\/Image%2010-6-25%20at%204.56%E2%80%AFPM%20%282%29.jpeg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Closed Existing Home Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi34iJRDOutakbSTUVVgtBLPuVDbg0WK9r-NLlU81wdDsb8YBpYMzmO4bHdBCbS8eiNSxwmJ4tz4d5vOCnp7gGbtNgU6EJGGv-Tkb3AknZYoyeCL1ym4dcICA3wMCSakHN7BkwQDtq8XQx_rYaxtG1_wMM3LUQKl0xF8Efzj4APAwzzH3DLHs45\/s320\/Image%2010-6-25%20at%204.56%E2%80%AFPM%20%282%29.jpeg\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIn September, sales in these early reporting markets were up 7.0% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 1.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nImportant:\u003C\/b\u003E There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8566434037110893639"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8566434037110893639"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2025\/10\/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets-in.html","title":"1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi34iJRDOutakbSTUVVgtBLPuVDbg0WK9r-NLlU81wdDsb8YBpYMzmO4bHdBCbS8eiNSxwmJ4tz4d5vOCnp7gGbtNgU6EJGGv-Tkb3AknZYoyeCL1ym4dcICA3wMCSakHN7BkwQDtq8XQx_rYaxtG1_wMM3LUQKl0xF8Efzj4APAwzzH3DLHs45\/s72-c\/Image%2010-6-25%20at%204.56%E2%80%AFPM%20%282%29.jpeg","height":"72","width":"72"}}]}});