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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"32157"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1175826476929486846"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-03T07:00:00.011-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-03T07:00:00.129-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest \nMBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 9.4 percent from two\nweeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage \nApplications Survey for the week ending December 29, 2023. The results include adjustments to account \nfor the holidays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 9.4 percent on \na seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 38\npercent compared with two weeks ago. The unadjusted Refinance Index decreased 43 percent from two \nweeks ago and was 15 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted \nPurchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with two weeks ago\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index \ndecreased 34 percent compared with two weeks ago and was \u003Cb\u003E12 percent lower than the same week one \nyear ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n“Markets continued to digest the impact of slowing inflation and potential rate cuts from the Federal \nReserve, helping mortgage rates to stay at levels close to the lowest since mid-2023. The 30-year fixed \nmortgage rate edged higher last week and ended 2023 at 6.76 percent, over a percentage point lower \nthan its recent peak of 7.9 percent in October 2023,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy \nChief Economist. “The recent decline in rates has given the housing market some cause for optimism \ngoing into 2024, but purchase applications have not yet picked up in response, with the overall level of \npurchase activity 12 percent lower than a year ago. Refinance applications were still at very low levels, \nbut were 15 percent higher than a year ago.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAdded Kan, “The housing market has been hampered by a limited supply of homes for sale, but the \nrecent strength in new residential construction will continue to help ease inventory shortages in the \nmonths in come.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe average contract interest rate for \u003Cb\u003E30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances \n($726,200 or less) increased to 6.76 percent\u003C\/b\u003E from 6.71 percent, with points increasing to 0.61 from 0.55 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased\nfrom last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjllm2cDfJuG1zOMpFBxDcndvo4vskA7DbbQsJNaE4YSEtf-2Z7M6-8zjT-SbdWGDfet36IcaefWfwq-0hk00pPR_2tXDJCw51GVTTa8gg3FOWlEPFuqaxI5x2p3BOSo-Sgudog_IOhCFAfHdDCxRaeovaKj3rh3tFmMtwTsaq7oBPESlk2evyg\/s1082\/MBAJan32024.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjllm2cDfJuG1zOMpFBxDcndvo4vskA7DbbQsJNaE4YSEtf-2Z7M6-8zjT-SbdWGDfet36IcaefWfwq-0hk00pPR_2tXDJCw51GVTTa8gg3FOWlEPFuqaxI5x2p3BOSo-Sgudog_IOhCFAfHdDCxRaeovaKj3rh3tFmMtwTsaq7oBPESlk2evyg\/s320\/MBAJan32024.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 12% year-over-year unadjusted.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ERed is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPurchase application activity is up from the lows in late October and early November, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust.\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNtLwQhWH8N4uGES4ooxz_RcKq_9OA6cTbv4c1kbyTNeKp96v3ggFOkzT_7JUPyO8WdtfXsXXjmayA0cBgvWpiYeA5uOa4Kd4HofMaELabM_8f3x8lJilq2QWGpbdQ-BfZkGbxYNQtog0f8T1LJZce5HKBL4kti11vm6HwINQTSjn1ZUZvOQSP\/s1087\/MBArefiJan42023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNtLwQhWH8N4uGES4ooxz_RcKq_9OA6cTbv4c1kbyTNeKp96v3ggFOkzT_7JUPyO8WdtfXsXXjmayA0cBgvWpiYeA5uOa4Kd4HofMaELabM_8f3x8lJilq2QWGpbdQ-BfZkGbxYNQtog0f8T1LJZce5HKBL4kti11vm6HwINQTSjn1ZUZvOQSP\/s320\/MBArefiJan42023.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and even with some recent minor increases, activity is barely off the bottom.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1175826476929486846\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1175826476929486846","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1175826476929486846"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1175826476929486846"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/mba-mortgage-applications-decreased.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Over a Two-Week Period in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjllm2cDfJuG1zOMpFBxDcndvo4vskA7DbbQsJNaE4YSEtf-2Z7M6-8zjT-SbdWGDfet36IcaefWfwq-0hk00pPR_2tXDJCw51GVTTa8gg3FOWlEPFuqaxI5x2p3BOSo-Sgudog_IOhCFAfHdDCxRaeovaKj3rh3tFmMtwTsaq7oBPESlk2evyg\/s72-c\/MBAJan32024.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8024757975057793701"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-02T19:27:00.006-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-02T19:27:00.138-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, FOMC Minutes"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjB_CFAN3ErQq9gP9bSVTYeZOX3oW7gYaEeaRZJQv-Lli4zYorGvpyFm1_2ox7hcD-yo3X4NSqT8y5eLWmOV5cJjTxd8yYb370L-ynnvmaIf3Kkez8MFnwJsWzAhF6NOwahfrjPSN-ko34qndGm7PJe-TOgLJtD8abjEFvryXPAjxp2Xx-uFZ4K\/s384\/RatesJan22023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjB_CFAN3ErQq9gP9bSVTYeZOX3oW7gYaEeaRZJQv-Lli4zYorGvpyFm1_2ox7hcD-yo3X4NSqT8y5eLWmOV5cJjTxd8yYb370L-ynnvmaIf3Kkez8MFnwJsWzAhF6NOwahfrjPSN-ko34qndGm7PJe-TOgLJtD8abjEFvryXPAjxp2Xx-uFZ4K\/s320\/RatesJan22023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E. (Two weeks!)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\u003C\/b\u003E for November from the BLS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Also at 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 47.1, up from 46.7 in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 2:00 PM, \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Minutes\u003C\/b\u003E, Meeting of December 12-13, 2023\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Late, \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December.  The Wards forecast is for 15.7 million SAAR in December, up from the BEA estimate of 15.32 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8024757975057793701\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8024757975057793701","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8024757975057793701"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8024757975057793701"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/wednesday-job-openings-ism-mfg-fomc.html","title":"Wednesday: Job Openings, ISM Mfg, FOMC Minutes"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjB_CFAN3ErQq9gP9bSVTYeZOX3oW7gYaEeaRZJQv-Lli4zYorGvpyFm1_2ox7hcD-yo3X4NSqT8y5eLWmOV5cJjTxd8yYb370L-ynnvmaIf3Kkez8MFnwJsWzAhF6NOwahfrjPSN-ko34qndGm7PJe-TOgLJtD8abjEFvryXPAjxp2Xx-uFZ4K\/s72-c\/RatesJan22023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6611527425228343102"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-02T12:25:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-02T12:25:52.115-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-9-for-2024-what-will-happen\"\u003EQuestion #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EBrief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EEarlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E9) House Prices:\u003C\/b\u003E It appears house prices - as measured by the national repeat sales index (Case-Shiller, FHFA, and Freddie Mac) - will be up mid-single digits in 2023.  What will happen with house prices in 2024?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first question I’m always asked is “What will happen with house prices?”  No one has a crystal ball, and it depends on supply and demand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjIacgtj5fIFEFePUiDRS7HVF6sidgIZULNYRGTVi1nqNNZMmd3RBI581b37mqYMDMh3_zBkxE_vG9t_3Ra-YAdBVQxHQqmraoyuYxx5Z5z99GXFKqcJ8Fl-PVvuvJae6HBD6xh92YuEflphgybtAzo-1KtBNsEUvAsO-eJhMhCs0wIAat2xfD7\/s908\/CSInvOct2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjIacgtj5fIFEFePUiDRS7HVF6sidgIZULNYRGTVi1nqNNZMmd3RBI581b37mqYMDMh3_zBkxE_vG9t_3Ra-YAdBVQxHQqmraoyuYxx5Z5z99GXFKqcJ8Fl-PVvuvJae6HBD6xh92YuEflphgybtAzo-1KtBNsEUvAsO-eJhMhCs0wIAat2xfD7\/s320\/CSInvOct2023.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph below shows existing home months-of-supply, inverted, from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999 through October 2023). Note that the months-of-supply is not seasonally adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe recent months are in black (Oct 2023 in Blue) showing the impact of the initial surge in inventory in 2022 and prices fell for seven months with low levels of inventory!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe last several months are following the historic pattern.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn October, the months-of-supply was at 3.6 months, and the Case-Shiller National Index (SA) increased 0.65% month-over-month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI don’t expect inventory to reach 2019 levels but based on the recent increase in inventory maybe more than half the gap between 2019 and 2023 levels will close in 2024.  If existing home sales remain sluggish, we could see months-of-supply back to 2017 - 2019 levels.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ciframe frameborder=\"0\" height=\"320\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/embed\" style=\"background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;\" width=\"480\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6611527425228343102\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6611527425228343102","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6611527425228343102"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6611527425228343102"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/question-9-for-2024-what-will-happen.html","title":"Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjIacgtj5fIFEFePUiDRS7HVF6sidgIZULNYRGTVi1nqNNZMmd3RBI581b37mqYMDMh3_zBkxE_vG9t_3Ra-YAdBVQxHQqmraoyuYxx5Z5z99GXFKqcJ8Fl-PVvuvJae6HBD6xh92YuEflphgybtAzo-1KtBNsEUvAsO-eJhMhCs0wIAat2xfD7\/s72-c\/CSInvOct2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3773187189863291487"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-02T10:00:00.029-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-02T10:08:41.862-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Construction Spending Increased 0.4% in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/c30\/current\/index.html\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that overall construction spending increased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nConstruction spending during November 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,050.1 billion, \u003Cb\u003E0.4 percent above the revised October estimate\u003C\/b\u003E of $2,042.5 billion. The November figure is 11.3 percent above the November 2022 estimate of $1,842.2 billion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n  \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EPrivate spending increased and public spending decreased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nSpending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,595.0 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised October estimate of $1,584.4 billion.  ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn November, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $455.1 billion, 0.7 percent below the revised October estimate of $458.1 billion.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgLbJcyRH37VQgwG853jXIUIXyvS_dOXRqVAqRF1VKr-FO-RScje3c8-LI52asUag5G7IJBhi9Bab7hvFZauhA_zSq_KEYJbuqFhnFvqbB2bSaZDUBJcCRIwYwZM6_qe1Rd6SkNpI6qUkkIAyuFW0NPDRynemnUclHOtjbOTw40Dlux_ZCbFZvd\/s1025\/ConSpendNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgLbJcyRH37VQgwG853jXIUIXyvS_dOXRqVAqRF1VKr-FO-RScje3c8-LI52asUag5G7IJBhi9Bab7hvFZauhA_zSq_KEYJbuqFhnFvqbB2bSaZDUBJcCRIwYwZM6_qe1Rd6SkNpI6qUkkIAyuFW0NPDRynemnUclHOtjbOTw40Dlux_ZCbFZvd\/s320\/ConSpendNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nResidential (red) spending is 7.5% below the recent peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nNon-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nPublic construction spending is slightly below the peak in the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg8dK1jsjKCn0D6mEikvr-YbaNRzEIgMoOawUkAoM4WboyhH5hNrAWO4oN-TA3XkKNiH3S3E5tNRqaOgvUurnDstIzw5XOtszEc7feTB8RleEQaIFRoym4BC9pg02hjluAzqGRmTZbXb_T5d7PzT-Cd8YedVOyEjyFpz3XdHsDI4RUvVAhz5UOT\/s1048\/ConSpendYoYNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg8dK1jsjKCn0D6mEikvr-YbaNRzEIgMoOawUkAoM4WboyhH5hNrAWO4oN-TA3XkKNiH3S3E5tNRqaOgvUurnDstIzw5XOtszEc7feTB8RleEQaIFRoym4BC9pg02hjluAzqGRmTZbXb_T5d7PzT-Cd8YedVOyEjyFpz3XdHsDI4RUvVAhz5UOT\/s320\/ConSpendYoYNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOn a year-over-year basis, \u003Cb\u003Eprivate residential construction spending is up 3.7%\u003C\/b\u003E.  Non-residential spending is up 19.3% year-over-year.  Public spending is up 16.2% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was slightly below consensus expectations for 0.5% increase in spending, however, total construction spending for the previous two months was revised up.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3773187189863291487\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3773187189863291487","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3773187189863291487"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3773187189863291487"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/construction-spending-increased-04-in.html","title":"Construction Spending Increased 0.4% in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgLbJcyRH37VQgwG853jXIUIXyvS_dOXRqVAqRF1VKr-FO-RScje3c8-LI52asUag5G7IJBhi9Bab7hvFZauhA_zSq_KEYJbuqFhnFvqbB2bSaZDUBJcCRIwYwZM6_qe1Rd6SkNpI6qUkkIAyuFW0NPDRynemnUclHOtjbOTw40Dlux_ZCbFZvd\/s72-c\/ConSpendNov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3297476073669145900"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-01T18:11:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-01T18:11:50.423-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: Construction Spending"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/schedule-for-week-of-december-31-2023.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of December 31, 2023\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nTuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for November. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOil prices were down over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $71.65 per barrel and Brent at $77.04 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $80, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices were down 10% year-over-year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $3.05 per gallon.  A year ago, prices were at $3.16 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.11 year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3297476073669145900\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3297476073669145900","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3297476073669145900"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3297476073669145900"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/tuesday-construction-spending.html","title":"Tuesday: Construction Spending"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6140648763965024432"},"published":{"$t":"2024-01-01T09:54:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2024-01-01T09:54:18.556-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Housing January 1st Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.9% Week-over-week, Up 4.4% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EAltos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.9% week-over-week and \u003Cb\u003Efinished 2023 up 4.4% year-over-year\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; Inventory will likely decrease seasonally until the Spring.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjyumlwYh2JA663ppKgfHIyiIW94WikBlG5DtlFlWYvt_bOvlb4N2Ejb0pn8HjeC4jgmHcHpjJ-89S3HdtdhDz23MQgI0ZQ9vpNeEgD2vOLN7D-VJ5g_jz3CEVnKAETNLK1ctRxtbQGa2XO7wgB_hh0oR3wYzwAPehYacz94psXxyJL_kkfauV_\/s1184\/AltosDec302023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjyumlwYh2JA663ppKgfHIyiIW94WikBlG5DtlFlWYvt_bOvlb4N2Ejb0pn8HjeC4jgmHcHpjJ-89S3HdtdhDz23MQgI0ZQ9vpNeEgD2vOLN7D-VJ5g_jz3CEVnKAETNLK1ctRxtbQGa2XO7wgB_hh0oR3wYzwAPehYacz94psXxyJL_kkfauV_\/s320\/AltosDec302023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis inventory graph is courtesy of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/altosresearch.com\/\"\u003EAltos Research\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nAs of December 29th, inventory was at 513 thousand (7-day average), compared to 529 thousand the prior week.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory finished 2023 up 4.4% year-over-year but is still far below pre-pandemic levels.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThe second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgcnr7eqW7hyK-uBfulFTSGnAD7yDvfTaFrtYBUUuluULPunXqYlHzbYFwyf5DEmjhLl3fk93n9AgyM3eTBxoYfoh_NaSnYwUrS6Q1dQr19-Rxn8AxjohgH6SuKfGpT1SzuymHIY1IY-8kRbW6QVnnOKrkuYUOceIXraJ6RYmQWFlUC3c_KkqKA\/s1089\/AltosDec292023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgcnr7eqW7hyK-uBfulFTSGnAD7yDvfTaFrtYBUUuluULPunXqYlHzbYFwyf5DEmjhLl3fk93n9AgyM3eTBxoYfoh_NaSnYwUrS6Q1dQr19-Rxn8AxjohgH6SuKfGpT1SzuymHIY1IY-8kRbW6QVnnOKrkuYUOceIXraJ6RYmQWFlUC3c_KkqKA\/s320\/AltosDec292023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe red line is for 2023.\u0026nbsp; The black line is for 2019.\u0026nbsp; Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInventory was up 4.4% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 3.9%), and down 34.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 34.2%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBack in June, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EMike Simonsen discusses this \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/altosresearch\"\u003Edata regularly on Youtube\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6140648763965024432\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6140648763965024432","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6140648763965024432"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6140648763965024432"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2024\/01\/housing-january-1st-weekly-update.html","title":"Housing January 1st Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.9% Week-over-week, Up 4.4% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjyumlwYh2JA663ppKgfHIyiIW94WikBlG5DtlFlWYvt_bOvlb4N2Ejb0pn8HjeC4jgmHcHpjJ-89S3HdtdhDz23MQgI0ZQ9vpNeEgD2vOLN7D-VJ5g_jz3CEVnKAETNLK1ctRxtbQGa2XO7wgB_hh0oR3wYzwAPehYacz94psXxyJL_kkfauV_\/s72-c\/AltosDec302023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-204095186904195551"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-31T08:23:00.014-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-31T08:23:00.134-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Update: Lumber Prices Up 9.6% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EHere is another monthly update on lumber prices.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ESPECIAL NOTE:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/content\/dam\/cmegroup\/notices\/ser\/2023\/04\/SER-9183.pdf\"\u003ECME group discontinued\u003C\/a\u003E the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.\u0026nbsp; I've now switched to a new physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EUnfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows CME random length framing futures through last August (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELBR is currently at $544.00 per 1000 board feet, up 9.6% from $496.5 a year ago.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjvQpOmD2cGe0GFPQHdHEONhtxZ992CjIlQtje2hdRr0pH-7bbjG8KRkggkHnfnNiBEEJlYm1rLkOejUOHPzkKOJusyXno8MxwUuCCoSI1rc6kxNageMW-cpQyncC2qPQBvjyjN_fQYkaF1BUOxQfASI1r6_mYbMSSiW640ordCR0pDcAbXQ8Np\/s1002\/LumberDec312023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Lumber Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjvQpOmD2cGe0GFPQHdHEONhtxZ992CjIlQtje2hdRr0pH-7bbjG8KRkggkHnfnNiBEEJlYm1rLkOejUOHPzkKOJusyXno8MxwUuCCoSI1rc6kxNageMW-cpQyncC2qPQBvjyjN_fQYkaF1BUOxQfASI1r6_mYbMSSiW640ordCR0pDcAbXQ8Np\/s320\/LumberDec312023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWe didn't see a significant runup in prices last Spring due to the housing slowdown, but we might see some pickup in early 2024.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/204095186904195551\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=204095186904195551","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/204095186904195551"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/204095186904195551"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/update-lumber-prices-up-96-yoy.html","title":"Update: Lumber Prices Up 9.6% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjvQpOmD2cGe0GFPQHdHEONhtxZ992CjIlQtje2hdRr0pH-7bbjG8KRkggkHnfnNiBEEJlYm1rLkOejUOHPzkKOJusyXno8MxwUuCCoSI1rc6kxNageMW-cpQyncC2qPQBvjyjN_fQYkaF1BUOxQfASI1r6_mYbMSSiW640ordCR0pDcAbXQ8Np\/s72-c\/LumberDec312023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2711724737654588740"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-30T14:11:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-30T14:11:00.136-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.8% year-over-year "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-4c1\"\u003ECase-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.8% year-over-year in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/fhfas-national-mortgage-database-89a\"\u003EFHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-24\"\u003EInflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2024-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/fannie-and-freddie-serious-delinquencies-582\"\u003EFannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in November: Single Family Mostly Unchanged, Multi-Family Increased\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-8a5\"\u003EFreddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 6.3% Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2711724737654588740\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2711724737654588740","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2711724737654588740"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2711724737654588740"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this_0988744778.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.8% year-over-year "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7534330707620851618"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-30T08:11:00.046-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-30T08:11:00.152-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of December 31, 2023"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Happy New Year!  Wishing you all the best in 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOther key indicators include the December ISM manufacturing, December vehicle sales and November Job Openings.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, January 1st  -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nyse.com\/markets\/hours-calendars#holidays\"\u003ENYSE\u003C\/a\u003E and the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.nasdaqtrader.com\/Trader.aspx?id=Calendar\"\u003ENASDAQ\u003C\/a\u003E will be closed in observance of the \u003Cb\u003ENew Year’s Day holiday\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, January 2nd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for November. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, January 3rd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEitKEhGB4h5sxb45wLorQyoE8KvCfN0t1F54v84QO1gR_7tw6V3w7ZfBH1i5lvVyXlpCKsJV4r1f5yiiiSEjTbVYjep1smoQaWbFu257xflSkJlUYbMVXWQmYdgHpgGxQE7FAuihJ25N3_Z9HpL6gMfIP1d1m9HFCT166Uilc7rE7khMOWp5S8u\/s1123\/JOLTSOct2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEitKEhGB4h5sxb45wLorQyoE8KvCfN0t1F54v84QO1gR_7tw6V3w7ZfBH1i5lvVyXlpCKsJV4r1f5yiiiSEjTbVYjep1smoQaWbFu257xflSkJlUYbMVXWQmYdgHpgGxQE7FAuihJ25N3_Z9HpL6gMfIP1d1m9HFCT166Uilc7rE7khMOWp5S8u\/s320\/JOLTSOct2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM ET: \u003Cb\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\u003C\/b\u003E for November from the BLS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nJobs openings decreased in October to 8.73 million from 9.35 million in September\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 47.1, up from 46.7 in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Minutes\u003C\/b\u003E, Meeting of December 12-13, 2023\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi8DpsZiol2C-7dh3GmR6grrudMERkxHeESnzBgicavrWJNVvFh_Z3W8O9W9NjFP7by9Rwdj89cjX7M4ov0wZtjPoKBCxFKbtz82ZQEOMgODGeLbcI89hXqw8khoOiDCHvZVoH1wWYCnwbqMdRDhAwmqJVccxmUnZFjQGgCUzswXBr5z1jAvL1i\/s1055\/VSNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi8DpsZiol2C-7dh3GmR6grrudMERkxHeESnzBgicavrWJNVvFh_Z3W8O9W9NjFP7by9Rwdj89cjX7M4ov0wZtjPoKBCxFKbtz82ZQEOMgODGeLbcI89hXqw8khoOiDCHvZVoH1wWYCnwbqMdRDhAwmqJVccxmUnZFjQGgCUzswXBr5z1jAvL1i\/s320\/VSNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ELate: \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Wards forecast is for 15.7 million SAAR in December, up from the BEA estimate of 15.32 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.\u0026nbsp; The dashed line is the current sales rate.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, January 4th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:15 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EADP Employment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 130,000, up from 103,000 jobs added in November. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, January 5th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgBIbm5K89Pp41pciPhl8WbbzCMoONz3HPPiKv6Hq8cAoOz2PeJ7iRREor6Wz3XKNUzN-hk0CniIhJyrggCEpk7Z4sVCl2WWQ6vho_WnMzn9akG4DKYavxcCs1GVaRFdULyznFJNMUUQJC9QDXr4J87QeKmKk1QOZrMetL45YrKLJ29TzChZMoU\/s920\/JobsNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment per month\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgBIbm5K89Pp41pciPhl8WbbzCMoONz3HPPiKv6Hq8cAoOz2PeJ7iRREor6Wz3XKNUzN-hk0CniIhJyrggCEpk7Z4sVCl2WWQ6vho_WnMzn9akG4DKYavxcCs1GVaRFdULyznFJNMUUQJC9QDXr4J87QeKmKk1QOZrMetL45YrKLJ29TzChZMoU\/s320\/JobsNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for December. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 158,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.8%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThere were 199,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 3.7%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n10:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7534330707620851618\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7534330707620851618","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7534330707620851618"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7534330707620851618"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/schedule-for-week-of-december-31-2023.html","title":"Schedule for Week of December 31, 2023"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEitKEhGB4h5sxb45wLorQyoE8KvCfN0t1F54v84QO1gR_7tw6V3w7ZfBH1i5lvVyXlpCKsJV4r1f5yiiiSEjTbVYjep1smoQaWbFu257xflSkJlUYbMVXWQmYdgHpgGxQE7FAuihJ25N3_Z9HpL6gMfIP1d1m9HFCT166Uilc7rE7khMOWp5S8u\/s72-c\/JOLTSOct2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7350638017120095252"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-29T19:33:00.006-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-29T19:33:00.148-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Dec 29th COVID Update: Hospitalizations Increased "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjWByAshELTro_LJZOGSgfJ9l9APHC6FSBGVe2fLv4EWGfJuI3Pnsumfod9PGmpGju1VuqMeK2W6dR61Lo-kUAyi7VTxE0IBgUU4Oau30YqIdMKEbyxhDWHP8YQeMB9qvWX77bIEQFJY-xxil8UdFPrOHwByen76VGXFgbxQFd59JPtzU8aumbB\/s395\/RatesDec292023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjWByAshELTro_LJZOGSgfJ9l9APHC6FSBGVe2fLv4EWGfJuI3Pnsumfod9PGmpGju1VuqMeK2W6dR61Lo-kUAyi7VTxE0IBgUU4Oau30YqIdMKEbyxhDWHP8YQeMB9qvWX77bIEQFJY-xxil8UdFPrOHwByen76VGXFgbxQFd59JPtzU8aumbB\/s320\/RatesDec292023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cdiv\u003EDue to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EFor deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for \"now\", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EHospitalizations have quadrupled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Ccenter\u003E\n\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\n\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E21,597\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E20,050\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,464\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,545\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003EWeekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths\n    \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\n  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhCPuol2CDZEkj0rdMCyLbfmBdqEgnlm3GUdiue1Umq_yvlTCHWY4dNL3DFpjbO9G0IXTOkq1ZDtU9Fv1RXiwfdbKTvHdRUawXly5Eg2uJ5Troy51AHHqqNng14bbhtSWfiiyFntimZ098Auez5qbKx12ddkE3HBrLbbUUoh8rQpPZZSuCY38TZ\/s1155\/COVIDDec292023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Week\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhCPuol2CDZEkj0rdMCyLbfmBdqEgnlm3GUdiue1Umq_yvlTCHWY4dNL3DFpjbO9G0IXTOkq1ZDtU9Fv1RXiwfdbKTvHdRUawXly5Eg2uJ5Troy51AHHqqNng14bbhtSWfiiyFntimZ098Auez5qbKx12ddkE3HBrLbbUUoh8rQpPZZSuCY38TZ\/s320\/COVIDDec292023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWeekly deaths have tripled from a low of 485 in early July.\u0026nbsp; \u003C\/b\u003EStill weekly deaths are far below the weekly peak of 26,000 in January 2021.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd here is a new graph I'm following on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nwss\/rv\/COVID19-nationaltrend.html\"\u003ECOVID in wastewater\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;as of Dec 28th:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhyV9MR6uluAk6mmxlv7sEBA_ItnThl-TahTOtmbNEjntYSN3Pazl41gvUi5CR_AoQ9IsvvlTKUTzqqEXny0b6C5U-gAwV0ZsdKbfsvolTSQhEEeuh8QNYf39G3Q1UBzbZzhofOD3iFxZ93Km5f5fBbYdx-sFcAdjP2_F29Y7pMKPPIqO53Fp9f\/s978\/COVIDWasteDec292023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Wastewater\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhyV9MR6uluAk6mmxlv7sEBA_ItnThl-TahTOtmbNEjntYSN3Pazl41gvUi5CR_AoQ9IsvvlTKUTzqqEXny0b6C5U-gAwV0ZsdKbfsvolTSQhEEeuh8QNYf39G3Q1UBzbZzhofOD3iFxZ93Km5f5fBbYdx-sFcAdjP2_F29Y7pMKPPIqO53Fp9f\/s320\/COVIDWasteDec292023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003EThis appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ECOVID in wastewater is at the highest level since January 2022 (about half that peak), and that suggests deaths will likely increase significantly over the next several weeks.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7350638017120095252\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7350638017120095252","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7350638017120095252"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7350638017120095252"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/dec-29th-covid-update-hospitalizations.html","title":"Dec 29th COVID Update: Hospitalizations Increased "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjWByAshELTro_LJZOGSgfJ9l9APHC6FSBGVe2fLv4EWGfJuI3Pnsumfod9PGmpGju1VuqMeK2W6dR61Lo-kUAyi7VTxE0IBgUU4Oau30YqIdMKEbyxhDWHP8YQeMB9qvWX77bIEQFJY-xxil8UdFPrOHwByen76VGXFgbxQFd59JPtzU8aumbB\/s72-c\/RatesDec292023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1264532202053129102"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-29T14:24:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-29T14:24:00.132-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 25 States in November (3-Month Basis)"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/-\/media\/frbp\/assets\/surveys-and-data\/coincident\/2023\/coincidentindexes0823.pdf\"\u003EPhilly Fed\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nThe Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for November 2023. \u003Cb\u003EOver the \npast three months, the indexes increased in 25 states, decreased in 21 states, and remained stable in four\u003C\/b\u003E, for a three-month \ndiffusion index of 8. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 18 states, decreased in 21 states, and remained \nstable in 11, for a one-month diffusion index of -6. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a \nsimilar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.7 percent over the past \nthree months and 0.3 percent in November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nNote: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data.  An explanation from the Philly Fed: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nThe coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgZZAq8R87TbXxJU9jJyxB02JtyJ7W9OqlASDHyFwmcO2za3ukVUhXm_u8WG5b2rHTJ0uQEchXUqaKLTbLW2f_X20gMgXb7VQmst6wbEh-MNbkqAA3mojD1937TikpKIsMChXaeYuuSorjBFLQAYQaKozomQrP-kKnkhyozgRg4YgdJwv-bxmdX\/s947\/PhillyMapNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Philly Fed State Conincident Map\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgZZAq8R87TbXxJU9jJyxB02JtyJ7W9OqlASDHyFwmcO2za3ukVUhXm_u8WG5b2rHTJ0uQEchXUqaKLTbLW2f_X20gMgXb7VQmst6wbEh-MNbkqAA3mojD1937TikpKIsMChXaeYuuSorjBFLQAYQaKozomQrP-kKnkhyozgRg4YgdJwv-bxmdX\/s320\/PhillyMapNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\n\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on map for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nHere is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators.  This \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/-\/media\/frbp\/assets\/surveys-and-data\/coincident\/maps\/2020\/2020-04.png\"\u003Emap was all red\u003C\/a\u003E during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe map is split between positive and negative on a three-month basis.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSource: Philly Fed. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgfaVZtmthk4wtki_EvyO1ZyJUZrMq8O8uuzD9Ql0H_jHuXH4Zfbcvlnc94fPCHIb6flK4VZuKJHm2fZvCaSWm8cEYx8oICkwU9_XG0ByExKL6M85s9NoM2KLLttxD2kN1bdGlGvAIl74FEAN7aNAlZFKp5fDkS6kr3VKC2ysuDSoqxSztcD-zo\/s1023\/PhillyFedStateNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing Activity\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgfaVZtmthk4wtki_EvyO1ZyJUZrMq8O8uuzD9Ql0H_jHuXH4Zfbcvlnc94fPCHIb6flK4VZuKJHm2fZvCaSWm8cEYx8oICkwU9_XG0ByExKL6M85s9NoM2KLLttxD2kN1bdGlGvAIl74FEAN7aNAlZFKp5fDkS6kr3VKC2ysuDSoqxSztcD-zo\/s320\/PhillyFedStateNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAnd here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn November, 20 states had increasing activity on a single month basis, including minor increases.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1264532202053129102\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1264532202053129102","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1264532202053129102"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1264532202053129102"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/philly-fed-state-coincident-indexes.html","title":"Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 25 States in November (3-Month Basis)"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgZZAq8R87TbXxJU9jJyxB02JtyJ7W9OqlASDHyFwmcO2za3ukVUhXm_u8WG5b2rHTJ0uQEchXUqaKLTbLW2f_X20gMgXb7VQmst6wbEh-MNbkqAA3mojD1937TikpKIsMChXaeYuuSorjBFLQAYQaKozomQrP-kKnkhyozgRg4YgdJwv-bxmdX\/s72-c\/PhillyMapNov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1996411982301554522"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-29T11:11:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-29T11:11:40.758-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 6.3% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-8a5\"\u003EFreddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 6.3% Year-over-year\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 6.3% in November\u003C\/b\u003E, from up 5.6% YoY in October.\u0026nbsp; The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgIyA9loDJB1pZt3tUuTWEJsRnFSrKIggG3nPHajbBdzfkjURShurSrYuxwVCwjElhQ-d6wW3W3Ny7n0qfkDSVZD6PBhPw6Yb8JiDpf_NiqalT18eOVnN8kRMD5lVJXOysmSqjuP_s2RZILFovPho6A3WVCybVMXYCzcqbbkYGamY6QKAHJVXYk\/s810\/FreddieCBSANov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Freddie HPI CBSA\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgIyA9loDJB1pZt3tUuTWEJsRnFSrKIggG3nPHajbBdzfkjURShurSrYuxwVCwjElhQ-d6wW3W3Ny7n0qfkDSVZD6PBhPw6Yb8JiDpf_NiqalT18eOVnN8kRMD5lVJXOysmSqjuP_s2RZILFovPho6A3WVCybVMXYCzcqbbkYGamY6QKAHJVXYk\/s320\/FreddieCBSANov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAs of November, 9 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Idaho (-4.2%), Utah (-2.0%), Louisiana (-1.7%), and Colorado (-1.4%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFor cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI’ll have an update on the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/house-price-battle-royale-low-inventory\"\u003EHouse Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability\u003C\/a\u003E soon.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1996411982301554522\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1996411982301554522","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1996411982301554522"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1996411982301554522"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased.html","title":"Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 6.3% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgIyA9loDJB1pZt3tUuTWEJsRnFSrKIggG3nPHajbBdzfkjURShurSrYuxwVCwjElhQ-d6wW3W3Ny7n0qfkDSVZD6PBhPw6Yb8JiDpf_NiqalT18eOVnN8kRMD5lVJXOysmSqjuP_s2RZILFovPho6A3WVCybVMXYCzcqbbkYGamY6QKAHJVXYk\/s72-c\/FreddieCBSANov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5558162543435872991"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-29T08:35:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-29T08:35:11.045-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/question-10-for-2024-will-inventory\"\u003EQuestion #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EBrief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EEarlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/ten-economic-questions-for-2024.html\"\u003ETen Economic Questions for 2024\u003C\/a\u003E. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003E10) Housing Inventory:\u003C\/b\u003E Housing inventory decreased sharply during the pandemic to record lows in early 2022.  Since then, inventory has increased, but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.  Will inventory increase further in 2024?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEij31a5sF0q48A6vi3ZomQlu0TBGfIVYZGnID126ARUR7QknxkMJ2hRvxZXCORqVI0Y2-cinHQZxWHnchnaHEb-Or63g0sGyfvuSDBIODaXRzaWgMcgvd7ET8UpZQ_bhWQuJZveuqWuCRSy3pRCcFKSjjDXBuWLfJX-MwQFm-AHnznRsvQ_JQXP\/s1012\/EHS2023Inventory.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Existing Home Inventory\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEij31a5sF0q48A6vi3ZomQlu0TBGfIVYZGnID126ARUR7QknxkMJ2hRvxZXCORqVI0Y2-cinHQZxWHnchnaHEb-Or63g0sGyfvuSDBIODaXRzaWgMcgvd7ET8UpZQ_bhWQuJZveuqWuCRSy3pRCcFKSjjDXBuWLfJX-MwQFm-AHnznRsvQ_JQXP\/s320\/EHS2023Inventory.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFirst, a brief history.  Here are a few times when watching existing home inventory helped my analysis.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nStarting in January 2005, I was \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2005\/04\/housing-speculation-is-key.html\"\u003Every bearish on housing\u003C\/a\u003E, but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. Speculative bubbles can go on and on. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/02\/housing-bottom-is-here.html\"\u003EThe Housing Bottom is Here\u003C\/a\u003E).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nSomewhat lower mortgage rates - and time - will likely lead to more new listings in 2024.  Still, mortgage rates will remain well above the pandemic lows, and therefore new listings will be depressed again in 2024.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2024.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;However, it seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;Inventory is always something to watch!\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5558162543435872991\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5558162543435872991","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5558162543435872991"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5558162543435872991"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/question-10-for-2024-will-inventory.html","title":"Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEij31a5sF0q48A6vi3ZomQlu0TBGfIVYZGnID126ARUR7QknxkMJ2hRvxZXCORqVI0Y2-cinHQZxWHnchnaHEb-Or63g0sGyfvuSDBIODaXRzaWgMcgvd7ET8UpZQ_bhWQuJZveuqWuCRSy3pRCcFKSjjDXBuWLfJX-MwQFm-AHnznRsvQ_JQXP\/s72-c\/EHS2023Inventory.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4708888629887786521"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-28T20:22:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-28T20:22:00.144-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Chicago PMI"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjWqqrxnbH-bI3mz0IcMGnctG0PXmhY7v2pK3WYeBcL2wNUMf1qUb43uyaa5oEsWkbHKuSkNr73sVMUAvO6_0uleiCKBCM0FhEuqkt0XsJH7sCjK4AuV_OypBDVhprVSXT2Rqy-EA7TPB6TsEfdoLRnXMhjUizZJkxACK5G63EOxI23ep-o5iYE\/s391\/RatesDec282023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjWqqrxnbH-bI3mz0IcMGnctG0PXmhY7v2pK3WYeBcL2wNUMf1qUb43uyaa5oEsWkbHKuSkNr73sVMUAvO6_0uleiCKBCM0FhEuqkt0XsJH7sCjK4AuV_OypBDVhprVSXT2Rqy-EA7TPB6TsEfdoLRnXMhjUizZJkxACK5G63EOxI23ep-o5iYE\/s320\/RatesDec282023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 9:45 AM: \u003Cb\u003EChicago Purchasing Managers Index\u003C\/b\u003E for December."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4708888629887786521\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4708888629887786521","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4708888629887786521"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4708888629887786521"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/friday-chicago-pmi.html","title":"Friday: Chicago PMI"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjWqqrxnbH-bI3mz0IcMGnctG0PXmhY7v2pK3WYeBcL2wNUMf1qUb43uyaa5oEsWkbHKuSkNr73sVMUAvO6_0uleiCKBCM0FhEuqkt0XsJH7sCjK4AuV_OypBDVhprVSXT2Rqy-EA7TPB6TsEfdoLRnXMhjUizZJkxACK5G63EOxI23ep-o5iYE\/s72-c\/RatesDec282023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4645267188746589715"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-28T15:11:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-28T15:11:37.825-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 0.5% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom STR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/str.com\/press-release\/us-hotel-results-week-ending-23-december\"\u003EU.S. hotel results for week ending 23 December\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EAs anticipated ahead of the holidays, U.S. hotel performance fell from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 December. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n17-23 December 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 43.9% (+0.5%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Average daily rate (ADR): US$131.97 (-0.9%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$57.90 (-0.4%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgQyOYkIlUfxH9czBYSFQE1DQW1UUFEy_SjuM55dElPXWvpkCiNx7Sv9BQ-mAvFP9THWsni9VTppSYuatnEmxfbd-t-TlzRnriOz1Sv0dR5SqkN6B-sQiPbldhx9_FjftzYeK-2RyiwaKtJSssRc0cTbBT2UufUqPKSENrGDirxlUyRbmuDpnjo\/s1033\/HotelDec282023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgQyOYkIlUfxH9czBYSFQE1DQW1UUFEy_SjuM55dElPXWvpkCiNx7Sv9BQ-mAvFP9THWsni9VTppSYuatnEmxfbd-t-TlzRnriOz1Sv0dR5SqkN6B-sQiPbldhx9_FjftzYeK-2RyiwaKtJSssRc0cTbBT2UufUqPKSENrGDirxlUyRbmuDpnjo\/s320\/HotelDec282023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022.\u0026nbsp; Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking close to last year, and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate will start increasing seasonally in the new year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4645267188746589715\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4645267188746589715","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4645267188746589715"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4645267188746589715"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/hotels-occupancy-rate-increased-05-year.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 0.5% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgQyOYkIlUfxH9czBYSFQE1DQW1UUFEy_SjuM55dElPXWvpkCiNx7Sv9BQ-mAvFP9THWsni9VTppSYuatnEmxfbd-t-TlzRnriOz1Sv0dR5SqkN6B-sQiPbldhx9_FjftzYeK-2RyiwaKtJSssRc0cTbBT2UufUqPKSENrGDirxlUyRbmuDpnjo\/s72-c\/HotelDec282023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7019068663052149278"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-28T13:54:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-28T13:54:05.454-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Las Vegas November 2023: Visitor Traffic Up 1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 3%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/assets.simpleviewcms.com\/simpleview\/image\/upload\/v1\/clients\/lasvegas\/ES_Nov2023_f62b3813-4143-419c-a2e5-7ba6d8200df0.pdf\"\u003ENovember 2023 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003EWith highlights including the SEMA tradeshow in the first week of the month and of course, the\ninaugural Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov 16‐18, Las Vegas tourism metrics exceeded last\nNovember across several categories, most notably with record ADR and RevPAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nVisitor volume exceeded 3.29M, ahead of last November by +0.8%, and convention attendance\napproached 600k, +2.7% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOverall hotel occupancy was 81.9%, +0.7 pts YoY, as Weekend occupancy reached 88.7% (‐0.9 pts\nYoY) while Midweek occupancy exceeded last November by 1.4 pts to reach 78.9% for the month.\nDriven by strong rates during the dates of the F1 race, monthly ADR reached a record $249,\n+33.7% YoY and RevPAR exceeded $204, +34.8% YoY\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjbLFn_CuAOIwxG7M_laP6jgcZ-kNR1146fCz_ZSqmPCyyUa7cfeb6AxxvWGwnyxrT5w2pZY-9LZVVd310F6YUEwA40RQrOTYqNYnFDBa9GnVM35flNylv7KXO7MjeLiMm6LtUOjb3IzQnWZcQxBsz92U3j2p_7DXRNSBkjy9vSP8Q1eu4NivTr\/s1035\/VegasVisitorNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\" width=\"500\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Las Vegas Visitor Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjbLFn_CuAOIwxG7M_laP6jgcZ-kNR1146fCz_ZSqmPCyyUa7cfeb6AxxvWGwnyxrT5w2pZY-9LZVVd310F6YUEwA40RQrOTYqNYnFDBa9GnVM35flNylv7KXO7MjeLiMm6LtUOjb3IzQnWZcQxBsz92U3j2p_7DXRNSBkjy9vSP8Q1eu4NivTr\/s320\/VegasVisitorNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (purple), 2022 (orange), and 2023 (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EVisitor traffic was up 0.8% compared to last November.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EVisitor traffic was down 6.2% compared to the same month in 2019.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\nThe second graph shows convention traffic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNYRTFY6P6Fzqb_C4BIsmBZ0uzY-6DCy2LPf6rFE6NHqp2WYasp9HKfXax_TJgz6dDxclol3X4c-T6o94lIX7z4Okdlgw09hFm9u1bizTPzksj-B25YfFQxTAMDYFtK494cTaCvwab8p_lM78f1HR22Hbc4u7Tlil2YsVxCPJklJajjQKERnOZ\/s1035\/VegasConventionNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\" width=\"500\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Las Vegas Convention Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiNYRTFY6P6Fzqb_C4BIsmBZ0uzY-6DCy2LPf6rFE6NHqp2WYasp9HKfXax_TJgz6dDxclol3X4c-T6o94lIX7z4Okdlgw09hFm9u1bizTPzksj-B25YfFQxTAMDYFtK494cTaCvwab8p_lM78f1HR22Hbc4u7Tlil2YsVxCPJklJajjQKERnOZ\/s320\/VegasConventionNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EConvention traffic was up 2.7% compared to November 2022, and down 0.8% compared to November 2019.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7019068663052149278\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7019068663052149278","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7019068663052149278"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7019068663052149278"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/las-vegas-november-2023-visitor-traffic.html","title":"Las Vegas November 2023: Visitor Traffic Up 1% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 3%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjbLFn_CuAOIwxG7M_laP6jgcZ-kNR1146fCz_ZSqmPCyyUa7cfeb6AxxvWGwnyxrT5w2pZY-9LZVVd310F6YUEwA40RQrOTYqNYnFDBa9GnVM35flNylv7KXO7MjeLiMm6LtUOjb3IzQnWZcQxBsz92U3j2p_7DXRNSBkjy9vSP8Q1eu4NivTr\/s72-c\/VegasVisitorNov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3077808917873881321"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-28T13:42:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-28T13:42:32.823-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Update on FirstAm Cyber Attack "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Update on FirstAm cyber attack (started on Dec 20th).  This will impact December house closings. From \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.firstam.com\/updates\/\"\u003EFirstAm\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cblockquote\u003E\"FirstAm.com has been restored (with some limits to functionality). We will continue to post updates on this page as we return to normal business operations.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3077808917873881321\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3077808917873881321","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3077808917873881321"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3077808917873881321"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/update-on-firstam-cyber-attack.html","title":"Update on FirstAm Cyber Attack "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5885030954700772040"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-28T10:00:00.015-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-28T10:05:20.416-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in November; Down 5.2% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/pending-home-sales-recorded-no-change-in-november\"\u003EPending Home Sales Recorded No Change in November\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPending home sales in November were identical to those in October\u003C\/b\u003E, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, Midwest and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the South recorded a loss. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year declines in transactions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – stayed at 71.6 in November. \u003Cb\u003EYear over year, pending transactions were down 5.2%\u003C\/b\u003E. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe Northeast PHSI rose 0.8% from last month to 64.4, a drop of 6.4% from November 2022. The Midwest index increased 0.5% to 76.2 in November, down 2.2% from one year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe South PHSI declined 2.3% to 83.2 in November, decreasing 6.5% from the prior year. The West index climbed 4.2% in November to 54.0, falling 4.9% from November 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was below expectations.  Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5885030954700772040\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5885030954700772040","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5885030954700772040"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5885030954700772040"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/nar-pending-home-sales-unchanged-in.html","title":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in November; Down 5.2% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2690661189220542389"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-28T08:30:00.010-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-28T08:32:57.229-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 218,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cblockquote\u003E\nIn the week ending December 23, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000\u003C\/b\u003E, an increase of \n12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to \n206,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The \nprevious week's average was revised up by 250 from 212,000 to 212,250. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjoQre-zMRo83gPpgmSl-V7iRwq9S4DUG22u1grn8WEdTa1f7M2udDpICRMnmq08YDbBxzPl3edJsIwJr_22HLZmRY84DDATgFO6wwN1s9YcNyJcbHogUIf-xNjeU-P2nrxLI7Z3sEGmIwbpD_RpWVV9bJChlf4l5yDTI_cqaG2Z1uTTzfOWw6s\/s1081\/WeeklyClaimsDec282023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjoQre-zMRo83gPpgmSl-V7iRwq9S4DUG22u1grn8WEdTa1f7M2udDpICRMnmq08YDbBxzPl3edJsIwJr_22HLZmRY84DDATgFO6wwN1s9YcNyJcbHogUIf-xNjeU-P2nrxLI7Z3sEGmIwbpD_RpWVV9bJChlf4l5yDTI_cqaG2Z1uTTzfOWw6s\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsDec282023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 212,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nWeekly claims were above the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2690661189220542389\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2690661189220542389","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2690661189220542389"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2690661189220542389"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_28.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 218,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjoQre-zMRo83gPpgmSl-V7iRwq9S4DUG22u1grn8WEdTa1f7M2udDpICRMnmq08YDbBxzPl3edJsIwJr_22HLZmRY84DDATgFO6wwN1s9YcNyJcbHogUIf-xNjeU-P2nrxLI7Z3sEGmIwbpD_RpWVV9bJChlf4l5yDTI_cqaG2Z1uTTzfOWw6s\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsDec282023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5431146461754583567"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-27T18:46:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-27T18:46:00.136-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjESnZY3xCoMD_67gT2KaaTWcfv1sh0CEcKbO2QZZf56nGWNhBheonYytqCoxw8lk_CghK8qHePQ2_2qqCFpgweEbCFZgrNqIID2eTZRXCCnBacrEvDjFAtBq4aWBIXTzGXwnl8kvllv0lNgMqc4Tj0HqPZEs8hRWDE2btpPcPwJUDuo_so99hp\/s392\/RatesDec272023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjESnZY3xCoMD_67gT2KaaTWcfv1sh0CEcKbO2QZZf56nGWNhBheonYytqCoxw8lk_CghK8qHePQ2_2qqCFpgweEbCFZgrNqIID2eTZRXCCnBacrEvDjFAtBq4aWBIXTzGXwnl8kvllv0lNgMqc4Tj0HqPZEs8hRWDE2btpPcPwJUDuo_so99hp\/s320\/RatesDec272023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released. The consensus is for 210 thousand, up from 205 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EPending Home Sales Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.  The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in the index."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5431146461754583567\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5431146461754583567","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5431146461754583567"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5431146461754583567"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/thursday-unemployment-claims-pending.html","title":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjESnZY3xCoMD_67gT2KaaTWcfv1sh0CEcKbO2QZZf56nGWNhBheonYytqCoxw8lk_CghK8qHePQ2_2qqCFpgweEbCFZgrNqIID2eTZRXCCnBacrEvDjFAtBq4aWBIXTzGXwnl8kvllv0lNgMqc4Tj0HqPZEs8hRWDE2btpPcPwJUDuo_so99hp\/s72-c\/RatesDec272023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-310423305777755919"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-27T11:55:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-27T11:55:51.806-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak;  Price-to-rent index is 6.7% below recent peak"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-24\"\u003EInflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak;  Price-to-rent index is 6.7% below recent peak\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EIt has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-4c1\"\u003EOctober Case-Shiller house price index\u003C\/a\u003E released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 70% above the bubble peak in 2006.\u0026nbsp;However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10% above the bubble peak\u0026nbsp;(and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).\u0026nbsp; The composite 20, in real terms, is 1% above the bubble peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nPeople usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.\u0026nbsp; As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $424,000 today adjusted for inflation (41% increase).\u0026nbsp; That is why the second graph below is important - this shows\u0026nbsp;\"real\" prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EThe third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index\u003C\/b\u003E. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhjw2IW9qef7JJPp43wNapg9qroiPZ6lAmguYcfTepqBF33HNhrxlF-9KXYp7N_SFrtvIV8KGNVgdedRjQnMizMBszTddtbIarJhihZQkNbDZIJSX-eZjK3vJfBnE5_LHYeIhzIZAyfbnDlOo9cF4sSuhAvNPuMwn6XrSc5RdbPWQdBypoRYCwc\/s939\/CSRealOct2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rea; House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhjw2IW9qef7JJPp43wNapg9qroiPZ6lAmguYcfTepqBF33HNhrxlF-9KXYp7N_SFrtvIV8KGNVgdedRjQnMizMBszTddtbIarJhihZQkNbDZIJSX-eZjK3vJfBnE5_LHYeIhzIZAyfbnDlOo9cF4sSuhAvNPuMwn6XrSc5RdbPWQdBypoRYCwc\/s320\/CSRealOct2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIn real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.4% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.3% below the recent peak in 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn real terms, national house prices are 10.3% above the bubble peak levels. There is an upward slope to real house prices, and it has been about 17 years since the previous peak, but real prices are historically high.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/310423305777755919\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=310423305777755919","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/310423305777755919"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/310423305777755919"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-24.html","title":"Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak;  Price-to-rent index is 6.7% below recent peak"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhjw2IW9qef7JJPp43wNapg9qroiPZ6lAmguYcfTepqBF33HNhrxlF-9KXYp7N_SFrtvIV8KGNVgdedRjQnMizMBszTddtbIarJhihZQkNbDZIJSX-eZjK3vJfBnE5_LHYeIhzIZAyfbnDlOo9cF4sSuhAvNPuMwn6XrSc5RdbPWQdBypoRYCwc\/s72-c\/CSRealOct2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4348651353208938422"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-27T08:19:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-27T08:19:13.819-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in November: Single Family Mostly Unchanged, Multi-Family Increased"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/fannie-and-freddie-serious-delinquencies-582\"\u003EFannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in November: Single Family Mostly Unchanged, Multi-Family Increased\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003EBrief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ESingle-family serious delinquencies were mostly unchanged in November, however, multi-family serious delinquencies increased.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhafIG5se5mk4myUqQKiLOEiR2ZEmBORvrA9Mt-dprNEqWAc9LT1vLQSOw_w3lf6u2iUUeH_TYK6nqAfVxYyGSWVCdMWmhQ8CGbYI_g48yBlT5qHtcGi0zkp8CNs6rbzQULj5EH-Cs8LQtsqCpuA5k18j-DvOVn4GbX_lc3SdlbAUQEANw8jZrP\/s944\/FreddieMultiNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Freddie Multi-Family Seriously Delinquent Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhafIG5se5mk4myUqQKiLOEiR2ZEmBORvrA9Mt-dprNEqWAc9LT1vLQSOw_w3lf6u2iUUeH_TYK6nqAfVxYyGSWVCdMWmhQ8CGbYI_g48yBlT5qHtcGi0zkp8CNs6rbzQULj5EH-Cs8LQtsqCpuA5k18j-DvOVn4GbX_lc3SdlbAUQEANw8jZrP\/s320\/FreddieMultiNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFreddie Mac reports that multi-family delinquencies increased to 0.28% in November, up from 0.15% in November 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012. Rates were still high in 2012 following the housing bust and financial crisis.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe multi-family rate increased following the pandemic and has increased recently as rent growth has slowed, vacancy rates have increased, and interest rates have increased sharply. This will be something to watch as rents soften, and more apartments come on the market.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4348651353208938422\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4348651353208938422","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4348651353208938422"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4348651353208938422"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/fannie-and-freddie-serious.html","title":"Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in November: Single Family Mostly Unchanged, Multi-Family Increased"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhafIG5se5mk4myUqQKiLOEiR2ZEmBORvrA9Mt-dprNEqWAc9LT1vLQSOw_w3lf6u2iUUeH_TYK6nqAfVxYyGSWVCdMWmhQ8CGbYI_g48yBlT5qHtcGi0zkp8CNs6rbzQULj5EH-Cs8LQtsqCpuA5k18j-DvOVn4GbX_lc3SdlbAUQEANw8jZrP\/s72-c\/FreddieMultiNov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7895688254896179112"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-26T19:30:00.005-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-26T19:30:00.139-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: Richmond Fed Mfg"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiC-tuWy18613MYtcqLVWFwY_YYYYIAx-sAqneXWuPcWk-MjurHzxV-guMZV6PcWTEpuuIKO9zuLzfTokPd36byWjlvK9KHWWtXDo8oJQzHJa1FL91iL0B-nIHAV5TCdRW4JF-k-xB-iJ_dHhpGJPQRVYSIAxuO71WCkCn-3asc4yi7hazPhG3N\/s389\/RatesDec262023.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiC-tuWy18613MYtcqLVWFwY_YYYYIAx-sAqneXWuPcWk-MjurHzxV-guMZV6PcWTEpuuIKO9zuLzfTokPd36byWjlvK9KHWWtXDo8oJQzHJa1FL91iL0B-nIHAV5TCdRW4JF-k-xB-iJ_dHhpGJPQRVYSIAxuO71WCkCn-3asc4yi7hazPhG3N\/s320\/RatesDec262023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E \u003C\/a\u003EFrom Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/markets\/mortgage-rates-12182023\"\u003EUncanny Absence of Volatility Continues For Mortgage Rates\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAfter dropping precipitously from over 8% in late October to well under 7% by December 14th, mortgage rates have been stone silent.  In the 7 business days that have followed, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate hasn't moved enough to impact the typical mortgage quote.  Our index has drifted microscopically higher and lower, never moving more than 0.02% from one day to the next, and never more than 0.03% from the center of the range. [\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/mortgage_rates\/\"\u003E30 year fixed 6.67%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\nWednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n• At 10:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003ERichmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for December.  This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\nNOTE: No MBA mortgage survey this week.\u003C\/b\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7895688254896179112\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7895688254896179112","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7895688254896179112"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7895688254896179112"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/wednesday-richmond-fed-mfg.html","title":"Wednesday: Richmond Fed Mfg"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiC-tuWy18613MYtcqLVWFwY_YYYYIAx-sAqneXWuPcWk-MjurHzxV-guMZV6PcWTEpuuIKO9zuLzfTokPd36byWjlvK9KHWWtXDo8oJQzHJa1FL91iL0B-nIHAV5TCdRW4JF-k-xB-iJ_dHhpGJPQRVYSIAxuO71WCkCn-3asc4yi7hazPhG3N\/s72-c\/RatesDec262023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9147801183651424872"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-26T13:24:00.005-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-26T13:24:44.541-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Two key points:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.\u0026nbsp; This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.\u0026nbsp; This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgGRK9DgMyb5G0lSTjuqcVmN3n_WB6W1rY_qpDXbjl7pbAcRk7r7whL6_YGBs1TKdiOH9rmM1lii8AHmFKJCNDXwKEOndciGswO5IEienK_cRcdqjV5r6e8goKBmEJNp1FU1BEL7NDUHgft5c3ZodPvft-_RHtD_Dx5-AqGj-UTT7HadqM-djuB\/s879\/CSNSAMoMNov2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"House Prices month-to-month change NSA\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgGRK9DgMyb5G0lSTjuqcVmN3n_WB6W1rY_qpDXbjl7pbAcRk7r7whL6_YGBs1TKdiOH9rmM1lii8AHmFKJCNDXwKEOndciGswO5IEienK_cRcdqjV5r6e8goKBmEJNp1FU1BEL7NDUHgft5c3ZodPvft-_RHtD_Dx5-AqGj-UTT7HadqM-djuB\/s320\/CSNSAMoMNov2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\n \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: small;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThis graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through October 2023). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the\u0026nbsp;bubble burst. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the more recent price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhA5F7WpeUE6njVUHhkFuIZWM-iAH1fsyHJFToIm2aZuVjSgaASMa282lB_GP072pB_P3ps4o4vGsrg5d7CwEITUeE8VmV2JoFLC8qjTzu9nEF5wuCVrWanSBYil5pbSwkosKXrCUfDIyQgGr0389R_7nZDJh5QPId9D3k3AhOPrWBwpXygD7Cc\/s858\/CSSFOct2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case Shiller Seasonal Factors\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhA5F7WpeUE6njVUHhkFuIZWM-iAH1fsyHJFToIm2aZuVjSgaASMa282lB_GP072pB_P3ps4o4vGsrg5d7CwEITUeE8VmV2JoFLC8qjTzu9nEF5wuCVrWanSBYil5pbSwkosKXrCUfDIyQgGr0389R_7nZDJh5QPId9D3k3AhOPrWBwpXygD7Cc\/s320\/CSSFOct2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987.  The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nThe swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9147801183651424872\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9147801183651424872","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9147801183651424872"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9147801183651424872"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/a-few-comments-on-seasonal-pattern-for.html","title":"A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgGRK9DgMyb5G0lSTjuqcVmN3n_WB6W1rY_qpDXbjl7pbAcRk7r7whL6_YGBs1TKdiOH9rmM1lii8AHmFKJCNDXwKEOndciGswO5IEienK_cRcdqjV5r6e8goKBmEJNp1FU1BEL7NDUHgft5c3ZodPvft-_RHtD_Dx5-AqGj-UTT7HadqM-djuB\/s72-c\/CSNSAMoMNov2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3852421618950070974"},"published":{"$t":"2023-12-26T09:45:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-12-26T09:45:00.577-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on October Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-4c1\"\u003ECase-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.8% year-over-year in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003ES\u0026amp;P\/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October (\"October\" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices).  October closing prices include some contracts signed in June, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh-1gqGTzQ_8U5lRPAJ36U3eAHWjhGaCQTutBHN37D4EUI_QFHnpHaihEdzZY8Z1I3MVpJQApErXXEQpgfraP7CsR5cgUHK-cNxLcJhSAqzJcaK1kiq8VKjtqkwOOqoEIiHTo-t3w0oZywzEJt31KQzetWvfDRkM7Sq9-Niq1yWm6StiG4c4-ej\/s927\/CSMoMOct2023.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller MoM House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh-1gqGTzQ_8U5lRPAJ36U3eAHWjhGaCQTutBHN37D4EUI_QFHnpHaihEdzZY8Z1I3MVpJQApErXXEQpgfraP7CsR5cgUHK-cNxLcJhSAqzJcaK1kiq8VKjtqkwOOqoEIiHTo-t3w0oZywzEJt31KQzetWvfDRkM7Sq9-Niq1yWm6StiG4c4-ej\/s320\/CSMoMOct2023.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.65%. This was the ninth consecutive MoM increase following seven straight MoM decreases.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nOn a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis.  Prices declined slightly in Portland in October. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.1% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 6.5% from the peak, Portland down 4.3%, Las Vegas is down 4.2%, and Phoenix is down 3.9%.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3852421618950070974\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3852421618950070974","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3852421618950070974"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3852421618950070974"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2023\/12\/comments-on-october-case-shiller-and.html","title":"Comments on October Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh-1gqGTzQ_8U5lRPAJ36U3eAHWjhGaCQTutBHN37D4EUI_QFHnpHaihEdzZY8Z1I3MVpJQApErXXEQpgfraP7CsR5cgUHK-cNxLcJhSAqzJcaK1kiq8VKjtqkwOOqoEIiHTo-t3w0oZywzEJt31KQzetWvfDRkM7Sq9-Niq1yWm6StiG4c4-ej\/s72-c\/CSMoMOct2023.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});