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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"26793"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5807728807905160793"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-06T20:22:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-06T20:22:16.762-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 6 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations almost 55,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,238,980 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 125,552 positive tests. (New record)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOver 5,800 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-drmrHRrhTw0\/X6X2fWM0NrI\/AAAAAAAA27U\/z2N4MJ-0DeMec7-Xsff0HlqYJb9SryTgwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1158\/COVIDNov62020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-drmrHRrhTw0\/X6X2fWM0NrI\/AAAAAAAA27U\/z2N4MJ-0DeMec7-Xsff0HlqYJb9SryTgwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov62020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 10.1% (red line is 7 day average).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor the status of contact tracing by state, check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/testandtrace.com\/\"\u003Etestandtrace.com\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HH-z10ze-bE\/X6X2h6rX7CI\/AAAAAAAA27Y\/RHH2Q71oG_YaUZN3dSEvzK2IlDxHMAzkwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1059\/COVIDCasesNov62020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HH-z10ze-bE\/X6X2h6rX7CI\/AAAAAAAA27Y\/RHH2Q71oG_YaUZN3dSEvzK2IlDxHMAzkwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov62020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the July high.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5807728807905160793\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5807728807905160793","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5807728807905160793"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5807728807905160793"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-6-covid-19-test-results-record.html","title":"November 6 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations almost 55,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-drmrHRrhTw0\/X6X2fWM0NrI\/AAAAAAAA27U\/z2N4MJ-0DeMec7-Xsff0HlqYJb9SryTgwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov62020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9172928362903792414"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-06T18:19:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-06T18:19:45.054-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Seattle Real Estate in October: Sales up 40% YoY, Inventory UP 16% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/members.nwmls.com\/library\/content\/PressReleases\/2020\/NWMLS%20NR_November%202020.pdf\"\u003EOctober Statistical Data\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Northwest MLS report recapping October activity showed a \u003Cb\u003E40% drop in active listings\u003C\/b\u003E compared to the same month a year ago, an increase of 16% in pending sales (mutually accepted offers), and a year-over-year (YOY) \u003Cb\u003Ejump of nearly 30% in closed sales\u003C\/b\u003E. The median price of single family homes and condominiums that sold last month was $500,000, up 19% from the same period a year ago, according to the MLS summary, which encompasses 23 counties, mostly in Western and Central Washington.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EMatthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate, said his biggest concern continues to be the ongoing lack of homes for sale in the Central Puget Sound area. “Keep in mind that a four month supply of homes for sale is a sign of a balanced housing market, but in 14 counties, including the King\/Pierce\/Snohomish region, there is currently less than one month of supply. This is what is allowing home prices to escalate at double digit rates.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe press release is for the Northwest MLS area.  There were 10,806 sales in October 2020, up 29.7% from 8,335 sales in October 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn King County, sales were up 40% year-over-year, and active inventory was down 21% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EIn Seattle, sales were up 39.9% year-over-year, and inventory was up 16% year-over-year.\u003C\/b\u003E.\u0026nbsp; This puts the months-of-supply in Seattle at just 1.7 months."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9172928362903792414\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9172928362903792414","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9172928362903792414"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9172928362903792414"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/seattle-real-estate-in-october-sales-up.html","title":"Seattle Real Estate in October: Sales up 40% YoY, Inventory UP 16% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5988489733321990833"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-06T14:33:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-06T14:33:36.286-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AAR: October Rail Carloads down 6.6% YoY, Intermodal Up 10.0% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/rail-traffic-data\/\"\u003ERail Time Indicators\u003C\/a\u003E.  \u003Ci\u003EGraphs and excerpts reprinted with permission\u003C\/i\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EBack in April 2020, when the U.S. economy was basically in a coma, U.S. intermodal originations averaged 219,085 units per week. That was the fewest for any month in more than seven years and the fewest for April in ten years. Back then, no one would have thought that six months later, in October 2020, U.S. railroads would have their \u003Cb\u003Ebest intermodal month in history\u003C\/b\u003E. Yet that’s where we are: U.S. railroads originated an average of 292,469 containers and trailers per week in October 2020, more than ever before and up a stunning 33.5% over April 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zTCxfm8Nj7Y\/X6WktaQ3p0I\/AAAAAAAA27E\/-FJ--dNZhX8Bn0KNVMVWthIxQCtbgeQiwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s809\/AARCarloadsOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zTCxfm8Nj7Y\/X6WktaQ3p0I\/AAAAAAAA27E\/-FJ--dNZhX8Bn0KNVMVWthIxQCtbgeQiwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/AARCarloadsOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.aar.org\/data-center\/popular-publications\/rail-time-indicators\"\u003ERail Time Indicators report\u003C\/a\u003E shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2018, 2019 and 2020:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ETotal U.S. carloads are trending higher, but at a much slower pace than in July and August. U.S. railroads originated an average of 228,193 total carloads per week in October 2020, the most since February 2020 but \u003Cb\u003Edown 6.6% from October 2019\u003C\/b\u003E. The 6.6% year-over-year decline is the smallest since the pandemic began.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EFor the first 10 months of 2020, total carloads were 9.48 million, down 14.5% (1.61 million carloads) from the first 10 months of 2019.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bqaK78PCQ2g\/X6WkvqpLcdI\/AAAAAAAA27I\/-uT9X1nBf2QONUfHZkuOMXEcmjeJ-nkSQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s818\/AARIntermodalOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Rail Traffic\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bqaK78PCQ2g\/X6WkvqpLcdI\/AAAAAAAA27I\/-uT9X1nBf2QONUfHZkuOMXEcmjeJ-nkSQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/AARIntermodalOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2018, 2019 and 2020: (using intermodal or shipping containers):\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the 31 years from 1989 to 2019, October was the top U.S. rail intermodal month (in terms of average weekly originations) 25 times. This year will make 26. In October 2020, U.S. railroads originated an average of 292,469 containers and trailers per week, \u003Cb\u003Eup 10.0% over October 2019\u003C\/b\u003E and the highest weekly average for any month in history. (The previous record was 289,994 in June 2018.) The weekly average in October 2020 was 33.5% higher than in April 2020, when they averaged just 219,085 units. That’s the biggest six-month gain in history. Few would have expected that six months ago.\u003C\/blockquote\u003ENote that rail traffic was weak prior to the pandemic, and intermodal has come back strong."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5988489733321990833\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5988489733321990833","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5988489733321990833"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5988489733321990833"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/aar-october-rail-carloads-down-66-yoy.html","title":"AAR: October Rail Carloads down 6.6% YoY, Intermodal Up 10.0% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-zTCxfm8Nj7Y\/X6WktaQ3p0I\/AAAAAAAA27E\/-FJ--dNZhX8Bn0KNVMVWthIxQCtbgeQiwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/AARCarloadsOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3496744246272449203"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-06T12:16:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-06T12:16:53.107-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales up 11% YoY, Inventory down 34% YoY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"This report is for closed sales in October; sales are counted at the close of escrow, so the contracts for these homes were mostly signed in August and September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Las Vegas Realtors reported \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.lasvegasrealtor.com\/\"\u003EWith rising prices and supply not meeting demand, local housing market looking like rest of U.S.; LVR housing statistics for October 2020\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E“COVID-19 appears to have extended the typical summer buying period by several months,” said 2020 LVR President Tom Blanchard, a longtime local REALTOR®. “The continued demand in our housing market is still not being met and is putting upward pressure on home values. Although we see increased permits by local homebuilders, they are still not meeting the demand that is out there.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E  ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ELVR reported a total of 3,961 existing local homes\u003C\/b\u003E, condos and townhomes were sold during October. Compared to the same time last year, October sales were up 11.2% for homes and up 9.5% for condos and townhomes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EBy the end of October, LVR reported 4,501 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s down 37.6% from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,428 properties listed without offers in October represent a 21.0% drop from one year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E…\u003Cbr \/\u003EDespite the coronavirus crisis, the number of so-called distressed sales remains near historically low levels. \u003Cb\u003ELVR reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 0.9% of all existing local property sales in October\u003C\/b\u003E. That compares to 2.4% of all sales one year ago, 3.0% two years ago and 5.2% three years ago. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E1) \u003Cb\u003EOverall sales were up 10.9% year-over-year \u003C\/b\u003Eto 3,961 in October 2020 from 3,571 in October 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down from a year ago, from a total of 9,164 in September 2019 to 5,929 in September 2020.  \u003Cb\u003ENote: Total inventory was down 34.3% year-over-year.\u003C\/b\u003E \u0026nbsp; And months of inventory is low.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3) Low level of distressed sales."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3496744246272449203\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3496744246272449203","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3496744246272449203"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3496744246272449203"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/las-vegas-real-estate-in-october-sales.html","title":"Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales up 11% YoY, Inventory down 34% YoY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5010586720078142187"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-06T09:23:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-06T09:23:38.814-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on October Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The October employment report was at expectations, and employment for the previous two months were revised up slightly.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EGovernment employment declined 268 thousand in October.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;The job losses at the Federal level were due to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/10\/note-october-employment-report-will.html\"\u003Eletting go temporary decennial workers\u003C\/a\u003E, but 130 thousand jobs were lost at state and local governments.\u0026nbsp; These losses could increase sharply if there is no disaster relief for the states.\u0026nbsp; I'll have more on this.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ELeisure and hospitality added another 271 thousand jobs in October, following 4.56 million jobs added in May through September. Leisure and hospitality lost 8.3 million jobs in March and April, so about 58% of those jobs were added back in the May through October period.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEarlier: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/october-employment-report-638-thousand.html\"\u003EOctober Employment Report: 638 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.9% Unemployment Rate\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn October, the year-over-year employment change was minus 9.18 million jobs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPermanent Job Losers\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ugC_V5FBmK8\/X6VVSL-chTI\/AAAAAAAA26c\/Ii_0fJLXXe41H83Aw2v0jUqAyTuJlP-AgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1042\/PermanentJobLossesOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ugC_V5FBmK8\/X6VVSL-chTI\/AAAAAAAA26c\/Ii_0fJLXXe41H83Aw2v0jUqAyTuJlP-AgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PermanentJobLossesOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the October report.  (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn October, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 3.684 million from 3.756 million in September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jurm15ZUVfs\/X6VWVaFGTpI\/AAAAAAAA26k\/--6Cvfr02Cojnoj3XQonIo7QgkcS5Qe9wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1063\/EmployPop2554Oct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jurm15ZUVfs\/X6VWVaFGTpI\/AAAAAAAA26k\/--6Cvfr02Cojnoj3XQonIo7QgkcS5Qe9wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployPop2554Oct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ESince the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe prime working age will be key in the eventual recovery.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 25 to 54 participation rate increased in October 81.2% to from 80.9% in September, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 76.0% from 75.0%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESeasonal Retail Hiring\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETypically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UO-IUZTE1GQ\/X6VaZ-GaElI\/AAAAAAAA268\/mApc8phnLQcB9bXqULD0eqsu1c2KbSaeQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1164\/RetailSeasonalOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Seasonal Retail Hiring\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-UO-IUZTE1GQ\/X6VaZ-GaElI\/AAAAAAAA268\/mApc8phnLQcB9bXqULD0eqsu1c2KbSaeQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/RetailSeasonalOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008.  Since then seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERetailers hired 243 thousand workers (NSA) net in October. \u0026nbsp; Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis might be distorted this year by a combination of seasonal hiring - and some bounce back in employment from the shutdowns earlier this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPart Time for Economic Reasons\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bd_DOyoVg4k\/X6VYa5_IDII\/AAAAAAAA26s\/eKxBMHHfDxkrcWyDQhrsoaTOMB5hQJekQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1020\/PartTimeOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Part Time Workers\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-bd_DOyoVg4k\/X6VYa5_IDII\/AAAAAAAA26s\/eKxBMHHfDxkrcWyDQhrsoaTOMB5hQJekQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PartTimeOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFrom the BLS \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"\u003Ci\u003EThe number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 383,000 to 6.7 million in October, after declines totaling 4.6 million over the prior 5 months. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 6.684 million from 6.300 million in September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese workers are included in the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.t15.htm\"\u003Ealternate measure\u003C\/a\u003E of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 12.1% in October.  This is down from the record high in April 22.8% for this measure since 1994.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EUnemployed over 26 Weeks\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-pBSDSX6ScYQ\/X6VYdhRTIsI\/AAAAAAAA26w\/fEc1BFjZackoX5laKny0Fjs7RX0oYj74ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1021\/Unemploy26Oct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Unemployed Over 26 Weeks\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-pBSDSX6ScYQ\/X6VYdhRTIsI\/AAAAAAAA26w\/fEc1BFjZackoX5laKny0Fjs7RX0oYj74ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/Unemploy26Oct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the BLS, there are 3.556 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis increased sharply in October - since the largest number of layoffs were in April - and will be a key measure to follow during the recovery.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESummary:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe headline monthly jobs number was at expectations, and the previous two months were revised up 15,000 combined.\u0026nbsp; The headline unemployment rate decreased to 6.9%.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;However the number of part time workers increased, and the number of long term unemployed increased sharply.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5010586720078142187\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5010586720078142187","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5010586720078142187"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5010586720078142187"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/comments-on-october-employment-report.html","title":"Comments on October Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ugC_V5FBmK8\/X6VVSL-chTI\/AAAAAAAA26c\/Ii_0fJLXXe41H83Aw2v0jUqAyTuJlP-AgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/PermanentJobLossesOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5947354883273321941"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-06T08:41:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-06T08:41:35.822-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"October Employment Report: 638 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.9% Unemployment Rate"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003EBLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETotal nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.9 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In October, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Employment in government declined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn October, the unemployment rate declined by 1.0 percentage point to 6.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.5 million to 11.1 million. Both measures have declined for 6 consecutive months but are nearly twice their February levels (3.5 percent and 5.8 million, respectively).\u003Cbr \/\u003E... \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up by 4,000 from +1,489,000 to +1,493,000, and the change for September was revised up by 11,000 from +661,000 to +672,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined was 15,000 higher than previously reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-0T0cAWPyjVE\/X6VSNhm-vyI\/AAAAAAAA26M\/w9QaJYNk2a005evSVjBMUpp-jKVOx52vQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1132\/EmployYoYOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-0T0cAWPyjVE\/X6VSNhm-vyI\/AAAAAAAA26M\/w9QaJYNk2a005evSVjBMUpp-jKVOx52vQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployYoYOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn October, \u003Cb\u003Ethe year-over-year change was negative 9.18 million jobs\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal payrolls increased by 638 thousand in October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPayrolls for August and September were revised up 15 thousand combined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-i4Ds087Hz_I\/X6VSPc0vqQI\/AAAAAAAA26Q\/tLDjtK1f2BYReu1J-M0cH-8IxrIm1PPOACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1110\/EmployRecessionOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-i4Ds087Hz_I\/X6VSPc0vqQI\/AAAAAAAA26Q\/tLDjtK1f2BYReu1J-M0cH-8IxrIm1PPOACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployRecessionOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and is still worse than the worst of the \"Great Recession\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ux-LxnLZpPA\/X6VRNRTmVYI\/AAAAAAAA26A\/Mjh0DBcv-H4aVuxcrAlqSv42p0g15uOzwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1058\/EmployPopOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ux-LxnLZpPA\/X6VRNRTmVYI\/AAAAAAAA26A\/Mjh0DBcv-H4aVuxcrAlqSv42p0g15uOzwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployPopOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 61.7% in October. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Employment-Population ratio increased to 57.4% (black line).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3aCwOo9W8rM\/X6VRLDjb5zI\/AAAAAAAA258\/ljvoqUngrZwqjqXDsIUCjsUz2b37IyG9gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1011\/UnemployOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"unemployment rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3aCwOo9W8rM\/X6VRLDjb5zI\/AAAAAAAA258\/ljvoqUngrZwqjqXDsIUCjsUz2b37IyG9gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/UnemployOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe unemployment rate decreased in October to 6.9%. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was close to consensus expectations, and August and September were revised up by 15,000 combined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll have much more later …"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5947354883273321941\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5947354883273321941","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5947354883273321941"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5947354883273321941"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/october-employment-report-638-thousand.html","title":"October Employment Report: 638 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.9% Unemployment Rate"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-0T0cAWPyjVE\/X6VSNhm-vyI\/AAAAAAAA26M\/w9QaJYNk2a005evSVjBMUpp-jKVOx52vQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EmployYoYOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8678591451482723273"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-06T08:15:00.005-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-06T08:16:25.731-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of November 3rd.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom Black Knight:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/blog-posts\/forbearances-fall-5-after-slight-increase\/\"\u003EForbearance Fall 5% After Slight Increase\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAfter last week’s slight increase, the latest data from Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that nationwide forbearance volumes have fallen by 152,000 (-5%) since last Tuesday, driven by October forbearance expiration activity. This was roughly what was expected for the first week of the month, though we will be on the lookout for further potential drops, given the remaining scheduled expirations. With some 161,000 active forbearance plans having expired at the end of October, additional extension and\/or removal activity could be seen in coming days.\u003Cbr \/\u003E... \u003Cbr \/\u003EAs of Nov. 3, there are \u003Cb\u003E2.9 million active forbearance plans, representing some 5.4% of mortgage-holders\u003C\/b\u003E, down from 5.7% last week and the lowest we’ve seen since mid-April during the onset of the pandemic. Together, they represent $584 billion in unpaid principal.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3Oo3RxgpTgA\/X6VMTQaRbuI\/AAAAAAAA250\/Db3jbLFKz-ooYVw9zdjFQHCZT185dRO5ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1233\/BKForBearNov62020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Black Knight Forbearance\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3Oo3RxgpTgA\/X6VMTQaRbuI\/AAAAAAAA250\/Db3jbLFKz-ooYVw9zdjFQHCZT185dRO5ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/BKForBearNov62020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 87,000 starts over the past week, the largest volume since April, but 57% of these were repeat starts for borrowers who had previously been in forbearance, left their plans, and have since returned. These forbearance starts and restarts are worth watching, as we see them trending upward. It may well be that this is still due to the drop in early October, but given the rising trend, they warrant a close eye.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8678591451482723273\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8678591451482723273","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8678591451482723273"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8678591451482723273"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/black-knight-number-of-homeowners-in.html","title":"Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3Oo3RxgpTgA\/X6VMTQaRbuI\/AAAAAAAA250\/Db3jbLFKz-ooYVw9zdjFQHCZT185dRO5ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/BKForBearNov62020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1792162391364649995"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-05T21:15:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-05T21:15:03.445-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"My \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/october-employment-preview.html\"\u003EOctober Employment Preview\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/october-employment-preview.html\"\u003EGoldman October Payrolls Preview\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for October.  The consensus is for 600 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-uqLs0cxchY0\/X1I01cbu9CI\/AAAAAAAA2EQ\/N4XHh9ts9zggWDzwtiAiM1tuQjA4paDxwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1600\/EmployRecessionAug2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-uqLs0cxchY0\/X1I01cbu9CI\/AAAAAAAA2EQ\/N4XHh9ts9zggWDzwtiAiM1tuQjA4paDxwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployRecessionAug2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms through September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1792162391364649995\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1792162391364649995","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1792162391364649995"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1792162391364649995"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/friday-employment-report.html","title":"Friday: Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/-uqLs0cxchY0\/X1I01cbu9CI\/AAAAAAAA2EQ\/N4XHh9ts9zggWDzwtiAiM1tuQjA4paDxwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/EmployRecessionAug2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8043760577402592615"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-05T18:50:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-05T18:50:22.777-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 5 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations over 53,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,271,748 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 116,255 positive tests. (New record)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOver 4,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-lDAwzQcZlUY\/X6SPaHKMEKI\/AAAAAAAA25k\/NmZhEUeu2XMO3cCqHKk6hQoickzJMGIAACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1160\/COVIDNov52020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-lDAwzQcZlUY\/X6SPaHKMEKI\/AAAAAAAA25k\/NmZhEUeu2XMO3cCqHKk6hQoickzJMGIAACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov52020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.1% (red line is 7 day average).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor the status of contact tracing by state, check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/testandtrace.com\/\"\u003Etestandtrace.com\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-0R5qQMC1qMk\/X6SPc7VruyI\/AAAAAAAA25o\/ApEDyNn__UkASIw46Xh75Z_rTkjVFYecwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1068\/COVIDCasesNov52020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-0R5qQMC1qMk\/X6SPc7VruyI\/AAAAAAAA25o\/ApEDyNn__UkASIw46Xh75Z_rTkjVFYecwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov52020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the July high.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8043760577402592615\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8043760577402592615","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8043760577402592615"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8043760577402592615"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-5-covid-19-test-results-record.html","title":"November 5 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases; Hospitalizations over 53,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-lDAwzQcZlUY\/X6SPaHKMEKI\/AAAAAAAA25k\/NmZhEUeu2XMO3cCqHKk6hQoickzJMGIAACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov52020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4171153635801562369"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-05T15:06:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-05T15:06:24.986-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Goldman October Payrolls Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EWe estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 500k in October\u003C\/b\u003E, below consensus of 600k. High-frequency labor market information indicates further deceleration in job growth, consistent with a drag from the virus resurgence and fiscal fizzle. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWe estimate the unemployment rate declined by two tenths to 7.7%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ECR Note: The consensus is for 600 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.6%."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4171153635801562369\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4171153635801562369","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4171153635801562369"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4171153635801562369"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/goldman-october-payrolls-preview.html","title":"Goldman October Payrolls Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3688483860314069634"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-05T14:04:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-05T14:04:37.389-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"FOMC Statement: No Change"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Fed Chair Powell \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/live-broadcast.htm\"\u003Epress conference video here\u003C\/a\u003E starting at 2:30 PM ET.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20201105a.htm\"\u003EFOMC Statement:\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices have been holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. \u003Cb\u003EThe ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, \u003Cb\u003Ethe Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time\u003C\/b\u003E so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1\/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles. Ms. Daly voted as an alternate member at this meeting.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3688483860314069634\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3688483860314069634","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3688483860314069634"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3688483860314069634"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/fomc-statement-no-change.html","title":"FOMC Statement: No Change"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9168670805686817705"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-05T10:58:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-05T10:58:37.812-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"October Employment Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October.  The consensus is for 600 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EDecennial Census:\u003C\/b\u003E The decennial Census will \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/10\/note-october-employment-report-will.html\"\u003Esubtract 147,311\u003C\/a\u003E temporary jobs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EADP Report:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/\"\u003EADP employment report\u003C\/a\u003E showed a gain of 365,000 private sector jobs, well below the consensus estimate of 650 thousand jobs.\u0026nbsp; The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report, but this suggests the BLS report could be \u003Cb\u003Eweaker than expected\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EISM Surveys:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/ism-manufacturing-index-increased-to.html\"\u003EISM manufacturing employment index\u003C\/a\u003E increased in October to 53.2% from 49.6% in September, and is finally above 50. \u0026nbsp; This would suggest essentially no change in manufacturing jobs in October - although ADP showed 7,000 manufacturing jobs added.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/ism-services-index-decreased-to-566-in.html\"\u003EISM Services employment index\u003C\/a\u003E decreased in October to 50.1% from 51.8% in October, and is just above 50. This would suggest around 75,000 service jobs added in October.  Combined, the ISM surveys suggest around 75,000 private sector jobs added in October.   \u003Cb\u003EThe ISM surveys haven't been as useful as usual during the pandemic, but this does suggest the report could be weaker than expected\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EUnemployment Claims:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-at.html\"\u003Eweekly claims report\u003C\/a\u003E showed a high number of total continuing unemployment claims during the reference week, although this might not be very useful right now.   If we did a \"Rip Van Winkle\", and saw the weekly claims report this morning, we'd think the economy was in a deep recession!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EHomebase, Kronos\/UKG:\u003C\/b\u003E There are other indicators that analysts are looking at - like Homebase hours worked and Kronos (see \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ernietedeschi\/status\/1324369170163765249\"\u003EErnie Tedeschi\u003C\/a\u003E comments).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-g1QytKc--E4\/X6QgjITgQRI\/AAAAAAAA25c\/BOfHQuUkvkcS-fOIf_6vRAWSgHHiw2qRACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1336\/ErnieOctober2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Ernie Tedeschi\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-g1QytKc--E4\/X6QgjITgQRI\/AAAAAAAA25c\/BOfHQuUkvkcS-fOIf_6vRAWSgHHiw2qRACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ErnieOctober2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"Data from Homebase, Kronos\/UKG, and UI claims since mid-September would be consistent with +801K jobs created in October, seasonally-adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThat number would be very modestly above September's pace of +661K.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EBut, of course, the uncertainty here is large.\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003ESeasonal Retail Hiring:\u003C\/b\u003E Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-qIfKdtqPCcU\/X6QcoI1X4fI\/AAAAAAAA25U\/_32Y7Z4aTLUp1oYamIIEZKVPonSWZOUxACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1167\/RetailSeasonal2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Seasonal Retail Hiring\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-qIfKdtqPCcU\/X6QcoI1X4fI\/AAAAAAAA25U\/_32Y7Z4aTLUp1oYamIIEZKVPonSWZOUxACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/RetailSeasonal2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn 2019, retailers hired 161,000 seasonal employees (NSA) in October.  This translated to a gain of 22,000 SA.   Brick and Mortar retailers could be more cautious this year, and retail might decline SA in October.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u0026nbsp;There could even be a larger impact in November.  In 2019, retailers hired 432,000 temporary employees NSA in November, and this translated to a loss of 14,000 jobs SA.  This will be something to watch.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hOZUBqNvfrE\/X3c5mIfajrI\/AAAAAAAA2bw\/DapIRzSBIL0W94rNzMB5XD8UFSQt-BYZQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1044\/PermanentJobLossesSept2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hOZUBqNvfrE\/X3c5mIfajrI\/AAAAAAAA2bw\/DapIRzSBIL0W94rNzMB5XD8UFSQt-BYZQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/PermanentJobLossesSept2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EPermanent Job Losers:\u003C\/b\u003E Something to watch in the employment report will be \"Permanent job losers\".  While there has been a strong bounce back in total employment, from the shutdown in March and April, permanent job losers have continued to increase.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E  This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the September report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions.  In September, the number of permanent job losers increased to 3.756 million from 3.411 million in August.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EMerrill Lynch forecast:\u003C\/b\u003E \"The October jobs report will likely reveal a moderation in nonfarm payroll growth to 625k, down from 661k in September. Census workers will contribute a notable drag – excluding government, we expect solid private payroll growth of 800k. The unemployment rate will likely improve to 7.6% from 7.9% in September.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EConclusion:\u003C\/b\u003E The employment related data has been all over the place, but most of the indicators suggest a weaker report in October than in September.   My guess is the report will be lower than the consensus.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9168670805686817705\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9168670805686817705","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9168670805686817705"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9168670805686817705"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/october-employment-preview.html","title":"October Employment Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-g1QytKc--E4\/X6QgjITgQRI\/AAAAAAAA25c\/BOfHQuUkvkcS-fOIf_6vRAWSgHHiw2qRACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ErnieOctober2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5439342595543977800"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-05T08:38:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-05T08:38:23.870-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 751,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the week ending October 31, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 751,000\u003C\/b\u003E, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 751,000 to 758,000. The 4-week moving average was 787,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,250 from 787,750 to 791,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThis does not include the 362,883 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)\u003C\/b\u003E that was up from 359,044 the previous week.  (There are some questions on PUA numbers).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-kYCFXNugUO8\/X6P_K-qXYdI\/AAAAAAAA25E\/4Gpv4LjTVOAauIGEI1SQYBmDrts7QbBAgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1071\/WeeklyClaimsNov52020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-kYCFXNugUO8\/X6P_K-qXYdI\/AAAAAAAA25E\/4Gpv4LjTVOAauIGEI1SQYBmDrts7QbBAgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsNov52020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 787,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8aeNm9nl-mA\/X6QAH9d2DSI\/AAAAAAAA25M\/zWDe7bY5OEwZ-eMXFGQO7jhRK1rnJBqBgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1016\/ContinuedNov52020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8aeNm9nl-mA\/X6QAH9d2DSI\/AAAAAAAA25M\/zWDe7bY5OEwZ-eMXFGQO7jhRK1rnJBqBgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ContinuedNov52020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAt the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EContinued claims decreased to 7,285,000 (SA) from 7,823,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: There are an additional 9,332,610 receiving \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/wdr.doleta.gov\/directives\/corr_doc.cfm?DOCN=4628\"\u003EPandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)\u003C\/a\u003E that decreased from 10,324,779 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers).  This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAn additional 3,961,060 are receiving  Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that increased from 3,683,496 the previous week.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5439342595543977800\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5439342595543977800","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5439342595543977800"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5439342595543977800"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-at.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 751,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-kYCFXNugUO8\/X6P_K-qXYdI\/AAAAAAAA25E\/4Gpv4LjTVOAauIGEI1SQYBmDrts7QbBAgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsNov52020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-436115905204666278"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-04T21:00:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-04T21:00:01.689-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: FOMC Announcement, Unemployment Claims"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Thursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.  The consensus is initial claims decreased to 725 thousand from 751 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 2:00 PM, \u003Cb\u003EFOMC Meeting Announcement\u003C\/b\u003E.  No change in policy is expected at this meeting..\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 2:30 PM, \u003Cb\u003EFed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/436115905204666278\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=436115905204666278","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/436115905204666278"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/436115905204666278"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/thursday-fomc-announcement-unemployment.html","title":"Thursday: FOMC Announcement, Unemployment Claims"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5875910437176033344"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-04T19:04:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-04T19:04:11.748-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 4 COVID-19 Test Results; Over 100,000 Cases Reported Today"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 966,851 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 103,087 positive tests. (New record)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOver 3,500 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HSFqTnc74rg\/X6NA1OUs2HI\/AAAAAAAA240\/NAUkAjsWr7or0f2tARE2qZYuoJRz3RwKQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1160\/COVIDNov42020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HSFqTnc74rg\/X6NA1OUs2HI\/AAAAAAAA240\/NAUkAjsWr7or0f2tARE2qZYuoJRz3RwKQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov42020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 10.7% (red line is 7 day average).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor the status of contact tracing by state, check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/testandtrace.com\/\"\u003Etestandtrace.com\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8N4Jw2cOk_U\/X6NA3MM8UxI\/AAAAAAAA244\/xb5Cvy6N_xUse_l8edkOj_nDTBVtpuBXgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1053\/COVIDCasesNov42020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-8N4Jw2cOk_U\/X6NA3MM8UxI\/AAAAAAAA244\/xb5Cvy6N_xUse_l8edkOj_nDTBVtpuBXgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov42020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the July high.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5875910437176033344\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5875910437176033344","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5875910437176033344"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5875910437176033344"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-4-covid-19-test-results-over.html","title":"November 4 COVID-19 Test Results; Over 100,000 Cases Reported Today"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HSFqTnc74rg\/X6NA1OUs2HI\/AAAAAAAA240\/NAUkAjsWr7or0f2tARE2qZYuoJRz3RwKQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov42020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3446282084271829014"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-04T11:26:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-04T11:26:52.628-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"October Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.2 Million SAAR"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October this morning.  The BEA estimates sales of 16.21 million SAAR in October 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 0.5% from the September sales rate, and down 3.3% from October 2019.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was below the consensus estimate of 16.5 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JaantIILkh8\/X6LV3Ia5J4I\/AAAAAAAA24s\/4Xgs4eGQiOI_q9wpBpT3TTzFYbDVc_6eACLcBGAsYHQ\/s971\/VSShortOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JaantIILkh8\/X6LV3Ia5J4I\/AAAAAAAA24s\/4Xgs4eGQiOI_q9wpBpT3TTzFYbDVc_6eACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/VSShortOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for October (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESince April, sales have increased, but are still down 3.3% from last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3j0HPfZPlpE\/X6LVdGFvhMI\/AAAAAAAA24k\/dPlGBIx5qSgsDYGoJeruxHSJ-THhuBtkACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1055\/VSOCT2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3j0HPfZPlpE\/X6LVdGFvhMI\/AAAAAAAA24k\/dPlGBIx5qSgsDYGoJeruxHSJ-THhuBtkACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/VSOCT2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.21 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESales-to-date are down 17.3% in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn 2019, there were 14.48 million light vehicle sales through October.\u0026nbsp; In 2020, there have been 11.97 million sales.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3446282084271829014\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3446282084271829014","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3446282084271829014"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3446282084271829014"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/october-vehicles-sales-decreased-to-162.html","title":"October Vehicles Sales decreased to 16.2 Million SAAR"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-JaantIILkh8\/X6LV3Ia5J4I\/AAAAAAAA24s\/4Xgs4eGQiOI_q9wpBpT3TTzFYbDVc_6eACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/VSShortOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7127435374410455015"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-04T10:08:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-04T10:08:45.968-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ISM Services Index Decreased to 56.6% in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The October ISM Services index was at 56.6%, down from 57.8% last month. The employment index decreased to 50.1%, from 51.8%.  Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the Institute for Supply Management: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/services-pmi-at-56-6-october-2020-services-ism-report-on-business-301166026.html\"\u003EServices PMI™ at 56.6%; October 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business®\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EBusiness Activity Index at 61.2%; New Orders Index at 58.8%; \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Index at 50.1%\u003C\/b\u003E; Supplier Deliveries Index at 56.2%\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EEconomic activity in the services sector grew in October for the fifth month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: \"The \u003Cb\u003EServices PMI™ registered 56.6 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, 1.2 percentage points lower than the September reading of 57.8 percent. This reading represents a fifth straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 129 months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-r1nW6l2_QSQ\/X6LD0XcB5GI\/AAAAAAAA24c\/ZOVCV5J85L4_X7ZrXPKmvEiRElmAIHHkgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s913\/ISMServicesOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"ISM Non-Manufacturing Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-r1nW6l2_QSQ\/X6LD0XcB5GI\/AAAAAAAA24c\/ZOVCV5J85L4_X7ZrXPKmvEiRElmAIHHkgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ISMServicesOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the ISM services index (started in January 2008) and the ISM services employment diffusion index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was below the consensus forecast, and the employment index was barely above 50."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7127435374410455015\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7127435374410455015","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7127435374410455015"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7127435374410455015"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/ism-services-index-decreased-to-566-in.html","title":"ISM Services Index Decreased to 56.6% in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-r1nW6l2_QSQ\/X6LD0XcB5GI\/AAAAAAAA24c\/ZOVCV5J85L4_X7ZrXPKmvEiRElmAIHHkgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ISMServicesOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3379509451787393822"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-04T08:39:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-04T08:39:43.957-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Trade Deficit Decreased to $63.9 Billion in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Department of Commerce \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/foreign-trade\/Press-Release\/current_press_release\/ft900.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $63.9 billion in September, down $3.2 billion from $67.0 billion in August, revised.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESeptember exports were $176.4 billion, $4.4 billion more than August exports. September imports were $240.2 billion, $1.2 billion more than August imports.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tjQc1-eIlX8\/X6KtrnfdTjI\/AAAAAAAA24M\/PxgXE9ITUhoBV7cylYskC9u5gg6YVwm4gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s942\/TradeSept2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Exports Imports\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tjQc1-eIlX8\/X6KtrnfdTjI\/AAAAAAAA24M\/PxgXE9ITUhoBV7cylYskC9u5gg6YVwm4gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TradeSept2020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBoth exports and imports increased in September. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExports are down 16% compared to September 2019; imports are down 6.5% compared to September 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBoth imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports),\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-mWRjjLEHTgU\/X6KuSsxl37I\/AAAAAAAA24U\/kZNrqiKvyKcwwY_QYEuMT0CJ2WryOt7pACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1008\/TradeDeficitSept2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Deficit\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-mWRjjLEHTgU\/X6KuSsxl37I\/AAAAAAAA24U\/kZNrqiKvyKcwwY_QYEuMT0CJ2WryOt7pACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TradeDeficitSept2020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOil imports averaged $37.59 per barrel in September, up from $37.43 per barrel in August, and down from $53.10 in September 2019. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe trade deficit with China decreased to $29.7 billion in September, from $31.6 billion in September 2019."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3379509451787393822\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3379509451787393822","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3379509451787393822"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3379509451787393822"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/trade-deficit-decreased-to-639-billion.html","title":"Trade Deficit Decreased to $63.9 Billion in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-tjQc1-eIlX8\/X6KtrnfdTjI\/AAAAAAAA24M\/PxgXE9ITUhoBV7cylYskC9u5gg6YVwm4gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/TradeSept2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4274564740999757913"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-04T08:19:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-04T08:19:12.387-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ADP: Private Employment increased 365,000 in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/2020\/October\/NER\/NER-October-2020.aspx\"\u003EFrom ADP:\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EPrivate sector employment \u003Cb\u003Eincreased by 365,000 jobs\u003C\/b\u003E from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“The labor market continues to add jobs, yet at a slower pace,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and cohead of the ADP Research Institute. “Although the pace is slower, we’ve seen employment gains across all industries and sizes.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was below the consensus forecast for 650 thousand private sector jobs added in the ADP report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 600 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in October.  Of course the ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4274564740999757913\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4274564740999757913","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4274564740999757913"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4274564740999757913"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/adp-private-employment-increased-365000.html","title":"ADP: Private Employment increased 365,000 in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5030803312258194247"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-04T07:00:00.015-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-04T07:00:05.870-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications increased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 30, 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E... The Refinance Index increased 6 percent from the previous week and was 88 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E25 percent higher than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Mortgage rates continue to hover at record lows this fall. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained essentially unchanged at 3.01 percent last week, but rates for 15-year fixed-rate loans, FHA loans and jumbo loans all fell to new MBA survey lows,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The drop in rates spurred an uptick in demand for refinances. Activity increased over 6 percent, with borrowers notably seeking conventional and government loans. After a solid stretch of purchase applications growth, activity decreased for the fifth time in six weeks, but was still over 25 percent higher than a year ago, and has increased year-over-year for six straight months. 2020 continues to overall be a strong year for the housing market.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 3.01 percent from 3.00 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ao9i2jWi-Es\/X6HZ4aA4u8I\/AAAAAAAA23s\/Z0YjOBlAd7cpzYV0I65KYPM0nAdE-nQVQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1089\/MBARefiNov42020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ao9i2jWi-Es\/X6HZ4aA4u8I\/AAAAAAAA23s\/Z0YjOBlAd7cpzYV0I65KYPM0nAdE-nQVQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBARefiNov42020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut with record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1ZJdPfNDpy0\/X6HZ6hAeSBI\/AAAAAAAA23w\/uvpHpeWUTVsYOWjDgkkBmvKRkJN2eLDAACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1088\/MBANov42020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1ZJdPfNDpy0\/X6HZ6hAeSBI\/AAAAAAAA23w\/uvpHpeWUTVsYOWjDgkkBmvKRkJN2eLDAACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBANov42020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is up 25% year-over-year unadjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5030803312258194247\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5030803312258194247","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5030803312258194247"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5030803312258194247"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/mba-mortgage-applications-increase-in.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Ao9i2jWi-Es\/X6HZ4aA4u8I\/AAAAAAAA23s\/Z0YjOBlAd7cpzYV0I65KYPM0nAdE-nQVQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBARefiNov42020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6765656736168639094"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-03T21:00:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-03T21:00:03.582-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, ISM Services"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:15 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EADP Employment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 650,000 jobs added, down from 749,000 in September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003ETrade Balance report\u003C\/b\u003E for September from the Census Bureau.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for the deficit to be $64.0 billion in September, from $67.1 billion in August.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, the \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for a decrease to 57.5 from 57.8."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6765656736168639094\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6765656736168639094","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6765656736168639094"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6765656736168639094"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/wednesday-adp-employment-trade-deficit.html","title":"Wednesday: ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, ISM Services"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-113542956650432356"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-03T18:29:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-03T18:29:34.313-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 3 COVID-19 Test Results"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: I look forward to when I will not be posting this daily!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging close to 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 927,029 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 86,507 positive tests. (New Tuesday record)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlmost 2,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-dS5WuGBy-hM\/X6HnHfhRtTI\/AAAAAAAA238\/gWlW85ExT7AcEUN-iFVLbKiz6p5PxVXnQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1164\/COVIDNov32020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-dS5WuGBy-hM\/X6HnHfhRtTI\/AAAAAAAA238\/gWlW85ExT7AcEUN-iFVLbKiz6p5PxVXnQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov32020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 9.3% (red line is 7 day average).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor the status of contact tracing by state, check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/testandtrace.com\/\"\u003Etestandtrace.com\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-4RQcASdFvXU\/X6HnJVRUJsI\/AAAAAAAA24A\/IEs2QNgYboIkXeCRwg146qoIVWDhVpGlwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1056\/COVIDCasesNov32020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-4RQcASdFvXU\/X6HnJVRUJsI\/AAAAAAAA24A\/IEs2QNgYboIkXeCRwg146qoIVWDhVpGlwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov32020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the July high.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high - see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is a new record 7-day average cases for the USA."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/113542956650432356\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=113542956650432356","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/113542956650432356"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/113542956650432356"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-3-covid-19-test-results.html","title":"November 3 COVID-19 Test Results"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-dS5WuGBy-hM\/X6HnHfhRtTI\/AAAAAAAA238\/gWlW85ExT7AcEUN-iFVLbKiz6p5PxVXnQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov32020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4229994959327242191"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-03T14:29:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-03T14:29:12.101-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Early Q4 GDP Forecasts"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Merrill Lynch: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe expect growth to slow to \u003Cb\u003E3% qoq saar in 4Q\u003C\/b\u003E amid the stimulus stalemate. [Oct 30 estimate]\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EFrom Goldman Sachs: \u003Cblockquote\u003EWe left our \u003Cb\u003EQ4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.5%\u003C\/b\u003E. [Nov 3 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003E  From the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/policy\/nowcast.html\"\u003ENY Fed Nowcasting Report\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at \u003Cb\u003E3.2% for 2020:Q4\u003C\/b\u003E. [Oct 30 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EAnd from the Altanta Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.frbatlanta.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1\"\u003EGDPNow\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the \u003Cb\u003Efourth quarter of 2020 is 3.4 percent\u003C\/b\u003E on November 2, up from 2.2 percent on October 30. [Nov 2 estimate]\u003C\/blockquote\u003EIt is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).\u0026nbsp; A 3.3% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, is about 0.8% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 2.7% from Q4 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph illustrates this decline.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jpee0g7ctTA\/X6GvWj77kFI\/AAAAAAAA23k\/LnLIohj4XEonn8TF0jp_ZC5HuJ2Ske8bgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1013\/GDPForecast33Q42020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Recession Measure, GDP\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jpee0g7ctTA\/X6GvWj77kFI\/AAAAAAAA23k\/LnLIohj4XEonn8TF0jp_ZC5HuJ2Ske8bgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/GDPForecast33Q42020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is through Q3 2020, and real GDP is currently off 3.5% from the previous peak.\u0026nbsp; For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe black arrow shows what a 3.3% annualized increase in real GDP would look like in Q4."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4229994959327242191\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4229994959327242191","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4229994959327242191"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4229994959327242191"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/early-q4-gdp-forecasts.html","title":"Early Q4 GDP Forecasts"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Jpee0g7ctTA\/X6GvWj77kFI\/AAAAAAAA23k\/LnLIohj4XEonn8TF0jp_ZC5HuJ2Ske8bgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/GDPForecast33Q42020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2526892127174900959"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-03T11:40:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-03T11:40:59.182-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 23% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows CME framing futures through Oct 30th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HW2jyIjSoSw\/X6GH5_zUlII\/AAAAAAAA23c\/p7c0fTGzPCQ7lcTHjn_EfNEgXXm8IgezwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1000\/LumberNov2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Lumcber Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HW2jyIjSoSw\/X6GH5_zUlII\/AAAAAAAA23c\/p7c0fTGzPCQ7lcTHjn_EfNEgXXm8IgezwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/LumberNov2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is down sharply from late August, but still up 23% year-over-year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClearly there was a surge in demand for lumber mid-year, but the mills are now catching up.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2526892127174900959\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2526892127174900959","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2526892127174900959"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2526892127174900959"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/update-framing-lumber-prices-up-23-year.html","title":"Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 23% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HW2jyIjSoSw\/X6GH5_zUlII\/AAAAAAAA23c\/p7c0fTGzPCQ7lcTHjn_EfNEgXXm8IgezwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/LumberNov2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2266262372058441010"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-03T08:00:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-03T08:00:04.740-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.7% Year-over-year in September"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Notes: \u003Cb\u003EThis CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September\u003C\/b\u003E.  The recent Case-Shiller index release was for August.  The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom CoreLogic: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.corelogic.com\/insights\/home-price-index.aspx\"\u003EPowering Up in 2020: Annual U.S. Home Price Appreciation Jumped to Six-Year High in September, CoreLogic Reports\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ECoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2020. Nationally, \u003Cb\u003Ehome prices increased 6.7% in September 2020, compared with September 2019\u003C\/b\u003E, marking the fastest annual acceleration since May 2014. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.1% compared to August 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EHome-purchase demand maintained pace in the late summer compared to previous years, as record-low mortgage rates continue to motivate prospective homebuyers, including first-time buyers and homeowners looking to trade-up or invest in a second home. However, according to the National Association of Realtors and U.S. Census Bureau, the national supply of homes for sale fell to the lowest recorded level in September at 40% of that seen in September 2008 and 75% of that seen in September 2000. This severe inventory shortage has intensified upward pressure on home price appreciation as consumers compete for the limited number of homes on the market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“Housing continues to be a bright spot during an otherwise challenging economic time for many U.S. households,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Those in sectors that weathered the transition to remote work successfully are now able to take advantage of low mortgage rates to purchase a home for the first time or to trade-up to a larger home.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“COVID has contributed to the acute shortage of inventory as the pace of new construction slowed and older prospective sellers postponed listing their homes until after the pandemic,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “\u003Cb\u003EOnce the pandemic passes or a vaccine is widely administered, we should see a noticeable pick-up in for-sale homes\u003C\/b\u003E. And if the economy’s recovery is sluggish next year, distressed sales may also add to market inventory.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2266262372058441010\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2266262372058441010","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2266262372058441010"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2266262372058441010"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/corelogic-house-prices-up-67-year-over.html","title":"CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.7% Year-over-year in September"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});