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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"30486"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5858154927216027467"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-03T14:11:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-03T14:11:00.385-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-33\"\u003EInflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/rents-falling-faster-than-seasonality\"\u003ERents Falling Faster than \"Seasonality Alone\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/fhfa-announces-baseline-conforming\"\u003EFHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $726,200\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-e7c\"\u003ECase-Shiller: National House Price Index \"Continued to Decline\" to 10.6% year-over-year increase in September\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/join-the-calculatedrisk-subscriber\"\u003EJoin the CalculatedRisk subscriber chat\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMost content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5858154927216027467\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5858154927216027467","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5858154927216027467"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5858154927216027467"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/real-estate-newsletter-articles-this.html","title":"Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1067007773494444849"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-03T08:11:00.025-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-03T08:11:00.383-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of December 4, 2022"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key economic report this week is the October trade deficit.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, December 5th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, December 6th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003ECorelogic House Price index\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRmHMLyCrCVHKYwlzVcWqCefXgbrdy9K8MUai_2KVYLPvqPQBrHx5KltAqxVJFqwpKsdrIUfLoF3Yy60V3XkaUOg1bU8V0-DWZwoIfY2DlVvnZ51hd9Ye0HKKFPTMKHCpDM0wDOCWG70ssfAAI6Z94PdYnKrs0Ra-EQWI94_4DK9-EPpsUtw\/s1018\/TradeDeficitSept2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Deficit\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRmHMLyCrCVHKYwlzVcWqCefXgbrdy9K8MUai_2KVYLPvqPQBrHx5KltAqxVJFqwpKsdrIUfLoF3Yy60V3XkaUOg1bU8V0-DWZwoIfY2DlVvnZ51hd9Ye0HKKFPTMKHCpDM0wDOCWG70ssfAAI6Z94PdYnKrs0Ra-EQWI94_4DK9-EPpsUtw\/s320\/TradeDeficitSept2022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ETrade Balance report\u003C\/b\u003E for October from the Census Bureau. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report.  The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is the trade deficit to be $79.1 billion.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. trade deficit was at $73.3 billion in September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, December 7th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, December 8th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 230 thousand initial claims, up from 225 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, December 9th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EProducer Price Index for November\u003C\/b\u003E from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E12:00 PM: \u003Cb\u003EQ3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States\u003C\/b\u003E from the Federal Reserve.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EUniversity of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index\u003C\/b\u003E (Preliminary for December)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1067007773494444849\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1067007773494444849","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1067007773494444849"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1067007773494444849"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/schedule-for-week-of-december-4-2022.html","title":"Schedule for Week of December 4, 2022"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRmHMLyCrCVHKYwlzVcWqCefXgbrdy9K8MUai_2KVYLPvqPQBrHx5KltAqxVJFqwpKsdrIUfLoF3Yy60V3XkaUOg1bU8V0-DWZwoIfY2DlVvnZ51hd9Ye0HKKFPTMKHCpDM0wDOCWG70ssfAAI6Z94PdYnKrs0Ra-EQWI94_4DK9-EPpsUtw\/s72-c\/TradeDeficitSept2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2028097987088929546"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-02T20:46:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-02T20:46:00.571-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"COVID Dec 2, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cb\u003ENOTE: This was a holiday week, and cases and deaths reporting always declines during holiday weeks.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths).\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003EData has switched to weekly.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EWeekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 480px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth colspan=\"5\"\u003ECOVID Metrics\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003ENow\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek\u003Cbr \/\u003EAgo\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EGoal\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003ENew Cases per Week\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E303,101\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E306,856\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤35,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EHospitalized\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E🚩\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E25,603\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E22,011\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤3,000\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd\u003EDeaths per Week\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E1,780\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E2,634\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E≤350\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003E\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd colspan=\"4\"\u003E\u003Csup\u003E1\u003C\/sup\u003Emy goals to stop weekly posts,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Csup\u003E2\u003C\/sup\u003EWeekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths\u003Cbr \/\u003E🚩 Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths     \u003Cbr \/\u003E✅ Goal met.\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJeBkLcivcSJB5j6L6ME6hD0xmLh7yjJ_Gp9_Rg4UZZ0oZwcUXEQse9C9i-LLxH394E6w3dnJzjhGlCuXfbqU_SdBe99zwfa7nYOSbaCz_LciGps5luQqxTy-oQfbSx-no_MdWPvkAPJD1jt2f6gvM_Powx_sbVJtMg0LXv2Gs0xy3M7U7RQ\/s1171\/COVIDDeathsDec22022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Deaths per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJeBkLcivcSJB5j6L6ME6hD0xmLh7yjJ_Gp9_Rg4UZZ0oZwcUXEQse9C9i-LLxH394E6w3dnJzjhGlCuXfbqU_SdBe99zwfa7nYOSbaCz_LciGps5luQqxTy-oQfbSx-no_MdWPvkAPJD1jt2f6gvM_Powx_sbVJtMg0LXv2Gs0xy3M7U7RQ\/s320\/COVIDDeathsDec22022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2028097987088929546\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2028097987088929546","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2028097987088929546"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2028097987088929546"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/covid-dec-2-2022-update-on-cases.html","title":"COVID Dec 2, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgJeBkLcivcSJB5j6L6ME6hD0xmLh7yjJ_Gp9_Rg4UZZ0oZwcUXEQse9C9i-LLxH394E6w3dnJzjhGlCuXfbqU_SdBe99zwfa7nYOSbaCz_LciGps5luQqxTy-oQfbSx-no_MdWPvkAPJD1jt2f6gvM_Powx_sbVJtMg0LXv2Gs0xy3M7U7RQ\/s72-c\/COVIDDeathsDec22022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6128567098532777199"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-02T15:09:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-02T15:09:28.467-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 0.5% Compared to Same Week in 2019"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cdiv\u003EFrom CoStar: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.costar.com\/article\/853421548\/str-us-hotel-performance-falls-as-expected-over-thanksgiving-week\"\u003ESTR: US Hotel Performance Falls as Expected Over Thanksgiving Week\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EDue to the Thanksgiving holiday, U.S. hotel performance came in lower than the previous week and showed mixed comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Nov. 26.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENov. 20-26, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EOccupancy: 50.4% (-0.5%)\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Average daily rate (ADR): US$135.49 (+20.4%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$68.27 (+19.9%)\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E   \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003Efour-week\u0026nbsp;average\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEirSsUeHPXN4ZawH3gbtbXXMp8JMLouxHtCiaQ1BcgTAlz93BUdd2av51gZ2gu9pY7daJqjOPS_NCyk3cPcU1cuMvaAhxEdwL0tGKmbZHuqi1u43fXl37y7UT4mlO_xe6-7GkMdIpXmyQMOZ97yQhnZwJnDabfJTRaMlPhgCoSSr5f_kCb1Pg\/s1032\/HotelDec22022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEirSsUeHPXN4ZawH3gbtbXXMp8JMLouxHtCiaQ1BcgTAlz93BUdd2av51gZ2gu9pY7daJqjOPS_NCyk3cPcU1cuMvaAhxEdwL0tGKmbZHuqi1u43fXl37y7UT4mlO_xe6-7GkMdIpXmyQMOZ97yQhnZwJnDabfJTRaMlPhgCoSSr5f_kCb1Pg\/s320\/HotelDec22022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.\u0026nbsp; Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENote: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe 4-week average of the occupancy rate continue to decline into the Winter.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6128567098532777199\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6128567098532777199","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6128567098532777199"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6128567098532777199"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/hotels-occupancy-rate-down-05-compared.html","title":"Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 0.5% Compared to Same Week in 2019"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEirSsUeHPXN4ZawH3gbtbXXMp8JMLouxHtCiaQ1BcgTAlz93BUdd2av51gZ2gu9pY7daJqjOPS_NCyk3cPcU1cuMvaAhxEdwL0tGKmbZHuqi1u43fXl37y7UT4mlO_xe6-7GkMdIpXmyQMOZ97yQhnZwJnDabfJTRaMlPhgCoSSr5f_kCb1Pg\/s72-c\/HotelDec22022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9155075522162004885"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-02T13:44:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-02T13:44:57.705-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 17%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003ERealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-nov-26-2022\/\"\u003EWeekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 26, 2022\u003C\/a\u003E.  Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. \u003Cblockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EActive inventory continued to grow, increasing 53% above one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E. Inventory accelerated again, notching a seventh week in a row with yearly trend growth roughly at or above 2% higher than the previous week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003ENew listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 17% from one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E. This marks the twenty-first consecutive week of year-over-year declines in homeowners listing their home for sale.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjIy-trSCf2Vu-nMPJkBWcZcM6ANNA0ya3FCEK-HS5QfboO_BUEl-mUP4SgYxWORbioRDGGWvTGc4PSLM_XsDtpIr7c4uNPcYJIHle-Vip_Jka0eujMIuU5E_OM9TD1nwbIdOeu6occHqSL7j87CYdCnBX7BLfCOv2H1xe4mF3qHv3S1iSXbw\/s1017\/RealtorDec22022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Realtor YoY Active Listings\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjIy-trSCf2Vu-nMPJkBWcZcM6ANNA0ya3FCEK-HS5QfboO_BUEl-mUP4SgYxWORbioRDGGWvTGc4PSLM_XsDtpIr7c4uNPcYJIHle-Vip_Jka0eujMIuU5E_OM9TD1nwbIdOeu6occHqSL7j87CYdCnBX7BLfCOv2H1xe4mF3qHv3S1iSXbw\/s320\/RealtorDec22022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realtor.com\/research\/data\/\"\u003Erealtor.com\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThen the Realtor.com data was stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 14 weeks in a row.\u0026nbsp; This was due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales had fallen sharply.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ENow YoY inventory is increasing again with even higher mortgage rates, suggesting sales are off more than new listings.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9155075522162004885\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9155075522162004885","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9155075522162004885"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9155075522162004885"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/realtorcom-reports-weekly-active.html","title":"Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 17%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjIy-trSCf2Vu-nMPJkBWcZcM6ANNA0ya3FCEK-HS5QfboO_BUEl-mUP4SgYxWORbioRDGGWvTGc4PSLM_XsDtpIr7c4uNPcYJIHle-Vip_Jka0eujMIuU5E_OM9TD1nwbIdOeu6occHqSL7j87CYdCnBX7BLfCOv2H1xe4mF3qHv3S1iSXbw\/s72-c\/RealtorDec22022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5549818672242457967"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-02T09:33:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-02T09:33:29.355-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Comments on November Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;The participation rate decreased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ELeisure and hospitality gained 88 thousand jobs in November.\u0026nbsp; At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 980 thousand jobs since February 2020.\u0026nbsp; So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 88% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EConstruction employment increased 20 thousand and is now 126 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EManufacturing added 14 thousand jobs and is now 149 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EEarlier: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/november-employment-report-263-thousand.html\"\u003ENovember Employment Report: 263 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn November, the year-over-year employment change was 4.90 million jobs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESeasonal Retail Hiring\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETypically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjcmLwxRhYo93havacD34ygeqQbIYg5DKhdr_BPr5OGw-W_1IWHZ_2RnzjzsRFR9tyErS2Cz-V3p6oRLEYGequu1wL5-TfZWqvhY6pqXQ_vmckR96r0NLNkyezwTUqGK3QDzAkHtmXs8Gq1jVDQzrdkvti8J47lkBHQkmB0GxPaG_bBVx6ADA\/s1164\/RetailHiringNov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Seasonal Retail Hiring\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjcmLwxRhYo93havacD34ygeqQbIYg5DKhdr_BPr5OGw-W_1IWHZ_2RnzjzsRFR9tyErS2Cz-V3p6oRLEYGequu1wL5-TfZWqvhY6pqXQ_vmckR96r0NLNkyezwTUqGK3QDzAkHtmXs8Gq1jVDQzrdkvti8J47lkBHQkmB0GxPaG_bBVx6ADA\/s320\/RetailHiringNov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008.  Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERetailers hired 257 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in November.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a loss of 29.9 thousand jobs in November.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E     \u003Cb\u003EPrime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRvz9PEeXwh_hzcyvgJvou3NEFXQKJFJWRnMMKq6xJR9BJxp23VvnKOgnwnHGgt3OT5bM7FLSxpRZK6xTvhwyh0EEhRHQFhW20AGpVy5zjSpvDSUYKm9yyyvRtphZwoNZ-37UX45TueC0G0-MPk4luxBBnxYoOxILCnmsHWMFSGmh47TaOAQ\/s1062\/EmployPop2554Nov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjRvz9PEeXwh_hzcyvgJvou3NEFXQKJFJWRnMMKq6xJR9BJxp23VvnKOgnwnHGgt3OT5bM7FLSxpRZK6xTvhwyh0EEhRHQFhW20AGpVy5zjSpvDSUYKm9yyyvRtphZwoNZ-37UX45TueC0G0-MPk4luxBBnxYoOxILCnmsHWMFSGmh47TaOAQ\/s320\/EmployPop2554Nov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ESince the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in November to 82.4% from 82.5% in October, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 79.7% from 79.8% the previous month.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EBoth have declined recently - but both are close to the pre-pandemic levels and indicate almost all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPart Time for Economic Reasons\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg0PB5mWHtmHt58ym7FRiIihm3aOV9IYvmg6SZQYjPQvKDhe4TuwSEe7ot4dd1R0Kvdv6JNsjPIpfMjMUOBnUfHkGXXCEm57fIGTvV5RlaNX6UAYOXrXZ7I0iRif0rfhmidwsXyr5nhNSrSJ3Fj7M0a4XjKybBPrTW2ATQXeEW6PoHutbX1Aw\/s1021\/PartTimeNov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Part Time Workers\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEg0PB5mWHtmHt58ym7FRiIihm3aOV9IYvmg6SZQYjPQvKDhe4TuwSEe7ot4dd1R0Kvdv6JNsjPIpfMjMUOBnUfHkGXXCEm57fIGTvV5RlaNX6UAYOXrXZ7I0iRif0rfhmidwsXyr5nhNSrSJ3Fj7M0a4XjKybBPrTW2ATQXeEW6PoHutbX1Aw\/s320\/PartTimeNov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EFrom the BLS \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003Ereport\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\"\u003Ci\u003EThe number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was about unchanged at 3.7 million in November. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.\u003C\/i\u003E\"\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in November to 3.685 million from 3.660 million in October.  This is below pre-recession levels and \u003Cb\u003Enear the\u0026nbsp;fewest part time workers (for economic reasons) in over 20 years\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese workers are included in the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.t15.htm\"\u003Ealternate measure\u003C\/a\u003E of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 6.7% from 6.8% in the previous month.  This is down from the record high in April 22.9% and \u003Cb\u003Eties the lowest level on record\u003C\/b\u003E (series started in 1994).  This measure is below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EUnemployed over 26 Weeks\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiqbKH1g8j50L1lhLeYvEAu6GnI5IHhq8W4F9b90uugN0dCSswEasVKqP5h_iY1yM92Op07wWRz6UU1ZfiKDgrU2eHHMcIwyPTC-R22u_WtXn-NQAxeeqMWib5XLgBWuc37NCWrf29T_FGKIc6DvnSGHJaT_O_ibiSw4G8YUef5IUmmmMseng\/s1021\/Unemploy26Nov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Unemployed Over 26 Weeks\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiqbKH1g8j50L1lhLeYvEAu6GnI5IHhq8W4F9b90uugN0dCSswEasVKqP5h_iY1yM92Op07wWRz6UU1ZfiKDgrU2eHHMcIwyPTC-R22u_WtXn-NQAxeeqMWib5XLgBWuc37NCWrf29T_FGKIc6DvnSGHJaT_O_ibiSw4G8YUef5IUmmmMseng\/s320\/Unemploy26Nov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the BLS, there are 1.230 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.165 million the previous month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is close to pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESummary:\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe headline monthly jobs number was above expectations; however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe headline unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, and U-6 declined to tie a record low at 6.7%.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOverall, this was another solid employment report.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5549818672242457967\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5549818672242457967","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5549818672242457967"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5549818672242457967"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/comments-on-november-employment-report.html","title":"Comments on November Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjcmLwxRhYo93havacD34ygeqQbIYg5DKhdr_BPr5OGw-W_1IWHZ_2RnzjzsRFR9tyErS2Cz-V3p6oRLEYGequu1wL5-TfZWqvhY6pqXQ_vmckR96r0NLNkyezwTUqGK3QDzAkHtmXs8Gq1jVDQzrdkvti8J47lkBHQkmB0GxPaG_bBVx6ADA\/s72-c\/RetailHiringNov2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5611998680920852826"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-02T08:44:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-02T08:44:17.985-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November Employment Report: 263 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm\"\u003EBLS\u003C\/a\u003E: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003ETotal nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November\u003C\/b\u003E, and the \u003Cb\u003Eunemployment  rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.  Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government.  Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 46,000, from +315,000 to +269,000, and the change for October was revised up by 23,000, from  +261,000 to +284,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October  combined were 23,000 lower than previously reported.\u003Cbr \/\u003E   \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhb9VNiHdoMdDG1-Lx4zEFJsNlzC2O-X0LvWt1dLoMWGwVil2jYu_-j8J_fxUL1P5Vj5oLHp_fyLtc_jcfQMBq0i34O4j9mTgyos-S0sC_W8B69u-Moev46OFPiBJk_P--mW6qKJVzRsK2N5QpTIijrsE1sN99oD00xZ-J3_4_HFrgm1vEJ4g\/s1105\/EmployRecessionNov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhb9VNiHdoMdDG1-Lx4zEFJsNlzC2O-X0LvWt1dLoMWGwVil2jYu_-j8J_fxUL1P5Vj5oLHp_fyLtc_jcfQMBq0i34O4j9mTgyos-S0sC_W8B69u-Moev46OFPiBJk_P--mW6qKJVzRsK2N5QpTIijrsE1sN99oD00xZ-J3_4_HFrgm1vEJ4g\/s320\/EmployRecessionNov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EHowever, as of August 2022, \u003Cb\u003Ethe total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.044 million above pre-pandemic levels\u003C\/b\u003E.  I'll post this graph through the January 2023 report (includes the annual revision).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjzQtELzQ_qDQNEXaq6gVOFzm9Y7sZOAO8cVy9EdGaWmQR0tq7kgBhFOR2NVCZJrWWDhX0mQCgY9xPKrto7KfrasBDR9iGGaXzMjx6kdDDLVKxjhhQtZ5yIfLgBcjBgpmm0_p9XfEc1ecAchl_8ynpdJ_Y6e_ik_LSAhkI3x-pkjaPo5_yXcg\/s1130\/EmployYoYNov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year change employment\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjzQtELzQ_qDQNEXaq6gVOFzm9Y7sZOAO8cVy9EdGaWmQR0tq7kgBhFOR2NVCZJrWWDhX0mQCgY9xPKrto7KfrasBDR9iGGaXzMjx6kdDDLVKxjhhQtZ5yIfLgBcjBgpmm0_p9XfEc1ecAchl_8ynpdJ_Y6e_ik_LSAhkI3x-pkjaPo5_yXcg\/s320\/EmployYoYNov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn November, the year-over-year change was 4.90 million jobs.\u0026nbsp; Employment was up significantly year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ETotal payrolls increased by 263 thousand in November.\u0026nbsp; Private payrolls increased by 221 thousand, and public payrolls increased 42 thousand.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPayrolls for September and October were revised down 23 thousand, combined.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjxhZoDNEMkgzkZoCYNgotWFrvIW7PzGthTBfjvHDwdSovQ3gr5ZIjh3Z9PlxD_iiH4AUnEJZvYNZ7GXXIqBQiSmiEISdTEFsqFetCMW2nrcG7bQxmfm4IQbHRIPc4NiQd7dPJzJpL9QhfAoI7IAcPRt0B4gtW-uRutrFgo-W4MdnSguD7VeQ\/s1056\/EmployPopNov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjxhZoDNEMkgzkZoCYNgotWFrvIW7PzGthTBfjvHDwdSovQ3gr5ZIjh3Z9PlxD_iiH4AUnEJZvYNZ7GXXIqBQiSmiEISdTEFsqFetCMW2nrcG7bQxmfm4IQbHRIPc4NiQd7dPJzJpL9QhfAoI7IAcPRt0B4gtW-uRutrFgo-W4MdnSguD7VeQ\/s320\/EmployPopNov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.1% in November, from 62.2% in October. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Employment-Population ratio decreased to 59.9% from 60.0% (blue line).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhtdhV30MmW4bvf7r9E_-jajwPOAHUsxODeeiOY4u_buVJKAzTILBbleO-ZYElYr1BIHgW5C0vRCRkogiRtuBmqvjejSJN6Ngfb9Z5K7UhkCRdV2A7NovQQP-pf2TycU9PTfS-Dqk0mAS0FW0dNeMW3p6wxovx54qPu_nXf4Df7hwiIAmlohw\/s1012\/UnemployNov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"unemployment rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhtdhV30MmW4bvf7r9E_-jajwPOAHUsxODeeiOY4u_buVJKAzTILBbleO-ZYElYr1BIHgW5C0vRCRkogiRtuBmqvjejSJN6Ngfb9Z5K7UhkCRdV2A7NovQQP-pf2TycU9PTfS-Dqk0mAS0FW0dNeMW3p6wxovx54qPu_nXf4Df7hwiIAmlohw\/s320\/UnemployNov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe unemployment rate was unchanged in November at 3.7% from 3.7% in October. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was above consensus expectations; however, September and October payrolls were revised down by 23,000 combined.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EI'll have more later ...\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5611998680920852826\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5611998680920852826","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5611998680920852826"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5611998680920852826"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/november-employment-report-263-thousand.html","title":"November Employment Report: 263 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhb9VNiHdoMdDG1-Lx4zEFJsNlzC2O-X0LvWt1dLoMWGwVil2jYu_-j8J_fxUL1P5Vj5oLHp_fyLtc_jcfQMBq0i34O4j9mTgyos-S0sC_W8B69u-Moev46OFPiBJk_P--mW6qKJVzRsK2N5QpTIijrsE1sN99oD00xZ-J3_4_HFrgm1vEJ4g\/s72-c\/EmployRecessionNov2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2166360799500699858"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-01T21:08:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-01T21:08:00.388-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Friday: Employment Report"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEix4gQtxVGch2ERDIdLDniOWLyH_77sd4QTDPSNtw2hoQ2B0LLcqtLmKPJ0MXQUSTaU7B5yP-nRN9sQC8UpduRLXVXFZBvpwysYbCf8yxevpCUV4fqAqIdrASCLMQHfGGy0NWV5LBnK2_cq66D4UjyHjm9osQr5dbxyGhsZczo27RZKhdPd8Q\/s400\/RatesDec12022.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEix4gQtxVGch2ERDIdLDniOWLyH_77sd4QTDPSNtw2hoQ2B0LLcqtLmKPJ0MXQUSTaU7B5yP-nRN9sQC8UpduRLXVXFZBvpwysYbCf8yxevpCUV4fqAqIdrASCLMQHfGGy0NWV5LBnK2_cq66D4UjyHjm9osQr5dbxyGhsZczo27RZKhdPd8Q\/s320\/RatesDec12022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EMortgage rates are down a full percentage point in just over 3 weeks.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/november-employment-preview.html\"\u003ENovember Employment Preview\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFriday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for November. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2166360799500699858\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2166360799500699858","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2166360799500699858"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2166360799500699858"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/friday-employment-report.html","title":"Friday: Employment Report"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEix4gQtxVGch2ERDIdLDniOWLyH_77sd4QTDPSNtw2hoQ2B0LLcqtLmKPJ0MXQUSTaU7B5yP-nRN9sQC8UpduRLXVXFZBvpwysYbCf8yxevpCUV4fqAqIdrASCLMQHfGGy0NWV5LBnK2_cq66D4UjyHjm9osQr5dbxyGhsZczo27RZKhdPd8Q\/s72-c\/RatesDec12022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1516444380269457369"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-01T19:24:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-01T19:24:16.251-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Vehicles Sales Declined to 14.14 million SAAR in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wards Auto \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/wardsintelligence.informa.com\/WI966827\/November-US-LightVehicle-Sales-Decline-from-October-but-Up-YearYear-Third-Straight-Month\"\u003Ereleased\u003C\/a\u003E their estimate of light vehicle sales for November.  Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.14 million SAAR in November 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 5.1% from the October sales rate, and up 7.9% from November 2021.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5GOhfNDyRJ06pT2472XxnakP4Ml3eVyLwt_OYcTQV5ywLzrJ4nCHe6NEvyjiDCW7g55YhjycbfoSkgJJK3DtWvdCdMHWki6XCkL78xsxVgxdcyl5NtBbo2eRZQVGaWlGSxxHCUXaN17PDS0VspXo77hbrZbdGSf68Ggnud0fVODYGnFuKYg\/s968\/VSShortNov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5GOhfNDyRJ06pT2472XxnakP4Ml3eVyLwt_OYcTQV5ywLzrJ4nCHe6NEvyjiDCW7g55YhjycbfoSkgJJK3DtWvdCdMHWki6XCkL78xsxVgxdcyl5NtBbo2eRZQVGaWlGSxxHCUXaN17PDS0VspXo77hbrZbdGSf68Ggnud0fVODYGnFuKYg\/s320\/VSShortNov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for November (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).\u0026nbsp; However, sales decreased late last year due to supply issues.\u003Cb\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/b\u003E It appears the \"supply chain bottom\" was in September 2021.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhPU8Io3NvOVRDTt79HVmBLuP-cz9MDRpmqIjPhh2z5XtKDmloyMYiMV9hgoxlOlq0Xl7MjrSyUfvtxfvbIxCljdj9BIeP9UIbd2lZ1PUCh0_5XoYX9BGFO7NYI0GCKLhkVIFI7kBeYlU-iGA5z6DoNLH-H-7nsfxgMGQFK85WhiFIBKfJtsg\/s1052\/VSNov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhPU8Io3NvOVRDTt79HVmBLuP-cz9MDRpmqIjPhh2z5XtKDmloyMYiMV9hgoxlOlq0Xl7MjrSyUfvtxfvbIxCljdj9BIeP9UIbd2lZ1PUCh0_5XoYX9BGFO7NYI0GCKLhkVIFI7kBeYlU-iGA5z6DoNLH-H-7nsfxgMGQFK85WhiFIBKfJtsg\/s320\/VSNov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. \u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003ESales in November were below the consensus forecast of 14.9 million SAAR."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1516444380269457369\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1516444380269457369","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1516444380269457369"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1516444380269457369"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/vehicles-sales-declined-to-1414-million.html","title":"Vehicles Sales Declined to 14.14 million SAAR in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEi5GOhfNDyRJ06pT2472XxnakP4Ml3eVyLwt_OYcTQV5ywLzrJ4nCHe6NEvyjiDCW7g55YhjycbfoSkgJJK3DtWvdCdMHWki6XCkL78xsxVgxdcyl5NtBbo2eRZQVGaWlGSxxHCUXaN17PDS0VspXo77hbrZbdGSf68Ggnud0fVODYGnFuKYg\/s72-c\/VSShortNov2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9123231141141192193"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-01T18:08:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-01T18:08:06.256-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November Employment Preview"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for November.  The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003EThere were 261,000 jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 3.7%.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjmQ2PfuvqxoOLb3pYPZX-OSuJVhOJJI5ARZEBbSOtUeIaEZPqm_j3OZE1IXPRgt86B-CVBFl5FsJgec0J-jSAuLeCaE9ynXT2YZeZHGFtrymJ_xc2Snuc6Cc2C4ITqG1djApwpXCC6NJ9fVhQn79PBUXp-TYYwx8jCBs9P0NJD-UvGA0Bc6A\/s1108\/EmployRecessionOct2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjmQ2PfuvqxoOLb3pYPZX-OSuJVhOJJI5ARZEBbSOtUeIaEZPqm_j3OZE1IXPRgt86B-CVBFl5FsJgec0J-jSAuLeCaE9ynXT2YZeZHGFtrymJ_xc2Snuc6Cc2C4ITqG1djApwpXCC6NJ9fVhQn79PBUXp-TYYwx8jCBs9P0NJD-UvGA0Bc6A\/s320\/EmployRecessionOct2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• First, as of October there are 804 thousand more jobs\u0026nbsp;than in February 2020 (the month before the pandemic).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003EAs of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis doesn't include the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/08\/employment-preliminary-annual-benchmark.html\"\u003Epreliminary benchmark revision \u003C\/a\u003Ethat showed there were 462 thousand more jobs than originally reported in March 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EWe estimate \u003Cb\u003Enonfarm payrolls rose by 175k\u003C\/b\u003E in November (mom sa), below consensus of +200k and a slowdown from the +261k pace in October.  ... We estimate the \u003Cb\u003Eunemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EADP Report:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/\"\u003EADP employment report\u003C\/a\u003E showed 127,000 private sector jobs were added in November.\u0026nbsp; This is the fourth release of ADP's new methodology, and this suggests job gains below consensus expectations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EISM Surveys:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes \u003Cb\u003Ebased on the number of firms hiring\u003C\/b\u003E (not the number of hires).\u0026nbsp; The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/ism-manufacturing-index-declined-to-490.html\"\u003EISM® manufacturing employment index\u003C\/a\u003E decreased in November to 48.4%, down from 50.0% last month. \u0026nbsp; This would suggest 30,000 jobs lost in manufacturing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe ISM® services employment index for November has not been released yet.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EUnemployment Claims:\u003C\/b\u003E The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html\"\u003Eweekly claims report\u003C\/a\u003E showed an increase in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (includes the 12th of the month) from 214,000 in October to 223,000 in November.  This would usually suggest above the same number of layoffs in October as in September.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003EIn general, weekly claims were slightly higher than expectations in November.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E•\u0026nbsp; \u003Cb\u003ECOVID:\u003C\/b\u003E As far as the pandemic, the number of \u003Cb\u003Eweekly cases during the reference week in November was around 282,000\u003C\/b\u003E, up slightly from 265,000 in October.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E• \u003Cb\u003EConclusion:\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;The consensus is for job growth to slow to 200,000 jobs added in November.\u0026nbsp; The ADP report was below expectations, and weekly claims were slightly negative.\u0026nbsp; My guess is the report will be below consensus.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9123231141141192193\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9123231141141192193","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9123231141141192193"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9123231141141192193"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/november-employment-preview.html","title":"November Employment Preview"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjmQ2PfuvqxoOLb3pYPZX-OSuJVhOJJI5ARZEBbSOtUeIaEZPqm_j3OZE1IXPRgt86B-CVBFl5FsJgec0J-jSAuLeCaE9ynXT2YZeZHGFtrymJ_xc2Snuc6Cc2C4ITqG1djApwpXCC6NJ9fVhQn79PBUXp-TYYwx8jCBs9P0NJD-UvGA0Bc6A\/s72-c\/EmployRecessionOct2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5249438818532040199"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-01T15:09:00.006-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-01T15:09:50.386-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Fannie Mae \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/about-us\/investor-relations\/monthly-summary\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.67% in October from 0.69% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.46% in October 2021.\u0026nbsp; This is close to pre-pandemic levels.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese are mortgage loans that are \"three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgXqGjNJV7jJnkjvJSvTK4tn18qfrtIa_gAjXYHkHn3O1abQO81bPsSPAm9N1hGBgnRfRADhl-an8BNL-ALRGOjQAmcVV0IMv3DFgzLRV-X7IdCU_arkBhRSBMldK3YjEaQ14ma4wpQ9rAgBdFHIOAWkMVmpuWc_l9zpr1_ztL5KyCwDvmykA\/s944\/FannieOct2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgXqGjNJV7jJnkjvJSvTK4tn18qfrtIa_gAjXYHkHn3O1abQO81bPsSPAm9N1hGBgnRfRADhl-an8BNL-ALRGOjQAmcVV0IMv3DFgzLRV-X7IdCU_arkBhRSBMldK3YjEaQ14ma4wpQ9rAgBdFHIOAWkMVmpuWc_l9zpr1_ztL5KyCwDvmykA\/s320\/FannieOct2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBy vintage\u003C\/b\u003E, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.34% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.41% in September).\u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cb\u003EFor loans made in 2005 through 2008\u003C\/b\u003E (1% of portfolio), \u003Cb\u003E3.71% are seriously delinquent\u003C\/b\u003E (down from 3.83%),\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u0026nbsp;For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.53% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.55%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMortgages in forbearance were counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they were not reported to the credit bureaus.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFreddie Mac \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/freddie-mac-mortgage-serious.html\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E earlier.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5249438818532040199\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5249438818532040199","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5249438818532040199"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5249438818532040199"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/fannie-mae-mortgage-serious-delinquency.html","title":"Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgXqGjNJV7jJnkjvJSvTK4tn18qfrtIa_gAjXYHkHn3O1abQO81bPsSPAm9N1hGBgnRfRADhl-an8BNL-ALRGOjQAmcVV0IMv3DFgzLRV-X7IdCU_arkBhRSBMldK3YjEaQ14ma4wpQ9rAgBdFHIOAWkMVmpuWc_l9zpr1_ztL5KyCwDvmykA\/s72-c\/FannieOct2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-851704056924311529"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-01T12:16:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-01T12:16:12.123-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Rents Falling Faster than \"Seasonality Alone\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/rents-falling-faster-than-seasonality\"\u003ERents Falling Faster than \"Seasonality Alone\"\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EA brief excerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EHere is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through October 2022 (Apartment List through November 2022).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady. Then new leases took off, and the BLS measures are picking up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Zillow measure is up 9.6% YoY in October, down from 10.8% YoY in September. This is down from a peak of 17.1% YoY in February.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe ApartmentList measure is up 4.5% YoY as of November, down from 5.6% in October. This is down from the peak of 18.1% YoY last December.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgQN6ctcUli_6MZGPZ_2hQekW1urjazjAZIF_4adroyAZ8T3ni0bsd46gxhIZc4fKcb1UrUcfLmtXhRcR1xHIH6sS39INS-dhdyVIotZRxcGnkjroZ2eyBAE67FuyVEDyylRqx6RyEBoGQB48FnxdEOED9FTwFhFblw3bDvqFWwFH4kyxy5Pg\/s1104\/RentYoYNov2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Case-Shiller House Prices Indices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgQN6ctcUli_6MZGPZ_2hQekW1urjazjAZIF_4adroyAZ8T3ni0bsd46gxhIZc4fKcb1UrUcfLmtXhRcR1xHIH6sS39INS-dhdyVIotZRxcGnkjroZ2eyBAE67FuyVEDyylRqx6RyEBoGQB48FnxdEOED9FTwFhFblw3bDvqFWwFH4kyxy5Pg\/s320\/RentYoYNov2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ERents are still increasing YoY, and we should expect this to continue to spill over into measures of inflation. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 6.9% YoY in October, from 6.7% YoY in September - and will likely increase further in the coming months even as rents slow sharply.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy suspicion is rent increases will slow further over the coming months as \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-likely-dramatic-shift-in-household\"\u003Ethe pace of household formation slows\u003C\/a\u003E, and more \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/october-housing-starts-record-number\"\u003Esupply comes on the market\u003C\/a\u003E. Housing economist Tom Lawler recently \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/lawler-update-on-the-household-conundrum\"\u003Ewrote\u003C\/a\u003E: \"An actual decline in rents next year would be a reasonable base case\".   This is important for monetary policy.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/851704056924311529\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=851704056924311529","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/851704056924311529"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/851704056924311529"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/rents-falling-faster-than-seasonality.html","title":"Rents Falling Faster than \"Seasonality Alone\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEgQN6ctcUli_6MZGPZ_2hQekW1urjazjAZIF_4adroyAZ8T3ni0bsd46gxhIZc4fKcb1UrUcfLmtXhRcR1xHIH6sS39INS-dhdyVIotZRxcGnkjroZ2eyBAE67FuyVEDyylRqx6RyEBoGQB48FnxdEOED9FTwFhFblw3bDvqFWwFH4kyxy5Pg\/s72-c\/RentYoYNov2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7891010701872608911"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-01T10:19:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-01T10:19:11.225-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Construction Spending Decreased 0.3% in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/c30\/pdf\/release.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that overall construction spending increased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EConstruction spending during October 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,794.9 billion, \u003Cb\u003E0.3 percent below\u003C\/b\u003E the revised September estimate of $1,800.1 billion. The October figure is 9.2 percent above the October 2021 estimate of $1,644.3 billion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EPrivate spending decreased and public spending increased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ESpending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,420.4 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised September estimate of $1,427.6 billion. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $374.6 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised September estimate of $372.5 billion. \u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjqpq4MST0AEsw28Za2UHoFYdf6w5szU6nmc5VaNJVZSzymcr3TLt6wSJT7u0DH3XVjhBBTnjCgoIv29Ksiu2WTvGqEVi1pewrGJVRXt1JAcy7EKZdf7fdddWvbGoxKhwljT3pFj4uHgxE7YOx_oE3nHJ8yaUcQKSSbbVkH4JiC9SRbKjaecw\/s1022\/ConSpendOct2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjqpq4MST0AEsw28Za2UHoFYdf6w5szU6nmc5VaNJVZSzymcr3TLt6wSJT7u0DH3XVjhBBTnjCgoIv29Ksiu2WTvGqEVi1pewrGJVRXt1JAcy7EKZdf7fdddWvbGoxKhwljT3pFj4uHgxE7YOx_oE3nHJ8yaUcQKSSbbVkH4JiC9SRbKjaecw\/s320\/ConSpendOct2022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EResidential (red) spending is 6.1% below the recent peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENon-residential (blue) spending is 0.8% below the recent peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPublic construction spending is at a new peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiO2F7ZO4bSYJvuzlZoMcxJgAUZPXpfL4gs7M4ESXqTmHIAGY4f-vvRsPPln8cS3TgsRnfNyMMelaTjZ3qJ7r3YUWtvFDm6vDaqq4SCppu8SUjZrw-jq3lVZgmG0mvXkpbd5jEf9mGqEAQHrWJuoMfpPHwE7cgpNu1wSksMswWasg_WhOLidg\/s1041\/ConSpendYoYOct2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiO2F7ZO4bSYJvuzlZoMcxJgAUZPXpfL4gs7M4ESXqTmHIAGY4f-vvRsPPln8cS3TgsRnfNyMMelaTjZ3qJ7r3YUWtvFDm6vDaqq4SCppu8SUjZrw-jq3lVZgmG0mvXkpbd5jEf9mGqEAQHrWJuoMfpPHwE7cgpNu1wSksMswWasg_WhOLidg\/s320\/ConSpendYoYOct2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, \u003Cb\u003Eprivate residential construction spending is up 8.6%\u003C\/b\u003E.  Non-residential spending is up 9.5% year-over-year.  Public spending is up 10.0% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was at consensus expectations of a 0.3% decrease in spending; however, construction spending for the previous two months combined were revised down.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7891010701872608911\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7891010701872608911","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7891010701872608911"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7891010701872608911"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/construction-spending-decreased-03-in.html","title":"Construction Spending Decreased 0.3% in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjqpq4MST0AEsw28Za2UHoFYdf6w5szU6nmc5VaNJVZSzymcr3TLt6wSJT7u0DH3XVjhBBTnjCgoIv29Ksiu2WTvGqEVi1pewrGJVRXt1JAcy7EKZdf7fdddWvbGoxKhwljT3pFj4uHgxE7YOx_oE3nHJ8yaUcQKSSbbVkH4JiC9SRbKjaecw\/s72-c\/ConSpendOct2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9085362274593164990"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-01T10:04:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-01T10:04:23.489-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ISM® Manufacturing index Declined to 49.0% in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"(Posted with permission).  The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction.  The PMI® was at 49.0% in November, down from 50.2% in October.  The employment index was at 48.4%, down from 50.0% last month, and the new orders index was at 47.2%, down from 49.2%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom ISM: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.ismworld.org\/supply-management-news-and-reports\/reports\/ism-report-on-business\/pmi\/november\/\"\u003EManufacturing PMI® at 49% November 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EEconomic activity in \u003Cb\u003Ethe manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020\u003C\/b\u003E after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“\u003Cb\u003EThe November Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2 percent recorded in October. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates expansion for the 30th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. \u003Cb\u003EThe New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.2 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, 2 percentage points lower than the 49.2 percent recorded in October. The Production Index reading of 51.5 percent is a 0.8-percentage point decrease compared to October’s figure of 52.3 percent. \u003Cb\u003EThe Prices Index registered 43 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, down 3.6 percentage points compared to the October figure of 46.6 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since May 2020 (40.8 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 40 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the October reading of 45.3 percent. The Employment Index returned to contraction territory (48.4 percent, down 1.6 percentage points) after being unchanged in October at 50 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index reading of 47.2 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October figure of 46.8 percent. Except for last month, the Supplier Deliveries Index hasn’t been at this level since February 2012 (47 percent). The Inventories Index registered 50.9 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the October reading of 52.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 48.4 percent is up 1.9 percentage points compared to October’s figure of 46.5 percent. The Imports Index dropped into contraction territory at 46.6 percent, 4.2 percentage points below the October reading of 50.8 percent.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis suggests manufacturing contracted in November.\u0026nbsp; This was below the consensus forecast.\u0026nbsp; Note that prices are falling."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9085362274593164990\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9085362274593164990","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9085362274593164990"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9085362274593164990"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/ism-manufacturing-index-declined-to-490.html","title":"ISM® Manufacturing index Declined to 49.0% in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1496341644254854742"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-01T08:42:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-01T08:42:49.492-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Personal Income increased 0.7% in October; Spending increased 0.8%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The BEA released the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/personal-income-and-outlays-october-2022\"\u003EPersonal Income and Outlays\u003C\/a\u003E report for October: \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPersonal income increased $155.3 billion (0.7 percent) in October\u003C\/b\u003E, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $132.9 billion (0.7 percent) and \u003Cb\u003Epersonal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $147.9 billion (0.8 percent)\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI increased 0.4 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.5 percent; goods increased 1.1 percent and services increased 0.2 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe October PCE price index increased 6.0 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 6.3 percent YoY in September.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 5.0 percent YoY, down from 5.2 percent in September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2022 (2012 dollars). \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003ENote that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change\u003C\/span\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjVf5UQTSGy7ykFPY_fayH0Y2LQWOYMcJVgtQiA-lL5L5bEJodbn-lIo4gDjbDBVIO2KnBejg9FoXAKHtVM4oUpSN1LQZol1nklPL6y6h2-7nHnY_Nqut3MxPI_jf3HyYA2HhkBDvyeFd0I2f8N1eOEzynKpDZhN_CmMEel6OZfST54-OjGLg\/s1203\/PCEOct2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Personal Consumption Expenditures\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjVf5UQTSGy7ykFPY_fayH0Y2LQWOYMcJVgtQiA-lL5L5bEJodbn-lIo4gDjbDBVIO2KnBejg9FoXAKHtVM4oUpSN1LQZol1nklPL6y6h2-7nHnY_Nqut3MxPI_jf3HyYA2HhkBDvyeFd0I2f8N1eOEzynKpDZhN_CmMEel6OZfST54-OjGLg\/s320\/PCEOct2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPersonal income was above expectations, and the increase in PCE was at expectations.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EInflation was slightly below expectations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1496341644254854742\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1496341644254854742","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1496341644254854742"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1496341644254854742"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/personal-income-increased-07-in-october.html","title":"Personal Income increased 0.7% in October; Spending increased 0.8%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjVf5UQTSGy7ykFPY_fayH0Y2LQWOYMcJVgtQiA-lL5L5bEJodbn-lIo4gDjbDBVIO2KnBejg9FoXAKHtVM4oUpSN1LQZol1nklPL6y6h2-7nHnY_Nqut3MxPI_jf3HyYA2HhkBDvyeFd0I2f8N1eOEzynKpDZhN_CmMEel6OZfST54-OjGLg\/s72-c\/PCEOct2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4539179969382215792"},"published":{"$t":"2022-12-01T08:34:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-12-01T08:34:02.045-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 225,000"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The DOL \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EIn the week ending November 26, the advance figure for \u003Cb\u003Eseasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000\u003C\/b\u003E, a decrease of  16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 240,000 to  241,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The  previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 226,750 to 227,000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhYHNbOKJtRWvQ5jjgNKRXzbYj91Ncgpcw1tXQQ778fbbf8Qo13avekqsgiBQnMLByjXDJ1Ch3h8qtF39ARc-UapvLsfT-PGnhKGPfTCXSI3rg2p7d9RkAbgvXOMV42iP31f7BgKB_otZdtNxsIEBXU8XCLtNRl-hGtMAXTeeGy_hsY_pJqLQ\/s1080\/WeeklyClaimsDec12022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhYHNbOKJtRWvQ5jjgNKRXzbYj91Ncgpcw1tXQQ778fbbf8Qo13avekqsgiBQnMLByjXDJ1Ch3h8qtF39ARc-UapvLsfT-PGnhKGPfTCXSI3rg2p7d9RkAbgvXOMV42iP31f7BgKB_otZdtNxsIEBXU8XCLtNRl-hGtMAXTeeGy_hsY_pJqLQ\/s320\/WeeklyClaimsDec12022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 228,750.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe previous week was revised up.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWeekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4539179969382215792\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4539179969382215792","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4539179969382215792"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4539179969382215792"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/12\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html","title":"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 225,000"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhYHNbOKJtRWvQ5jjgNKRXzbYj91Ncgpcw1tXQQ778fbbf8Qo13avekqsgiBQnMLByjXDJ1Ch3h8qtF39ARc-UapvLsfT-PGnhKGPfTCXSI3rg2p7d9RkAbgvXOMV42iP31f7BgKB_otZdtNxsIEBXU8XCLtNRl-hGtMAXTeeGy_hsY_pJqLQ\/s72-c\/WeeklyClaimsDec12022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4150897749550621118"},"published":{"$t":"2022-11-30T20:54:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-11-30T20:54:00.396-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Personal Income \u0026 Outlays, Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjsQBaiQPcWiRqKq8P7NUx8QOCM028SuDk4V0KmyJwsemxOpk3sCKojxjpUJQlIP3dgAsV38H2QEq1R2XrW3mVlvHyJNL-qqxR_r4oxD6xlBmYoWrfHF-XV3kn9M0HxNys8n2Sxllhhky13OPEYUtpii8dKWJN0NQNAQn96Abchws3zutrV-g\/s399\/RatesNov302022.PNG\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Rates\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjsQBaiQPcWiRqKq8P7NUx8QOCM028SuDk4V0KmyJwsemxOpk3sCKojxjpUJQlIP3dgAsV38H2QEq1R2XrW3mVlvHyJNL-qqxR_r4oxD6xlBmYoWrfHF-XV3kn9M0HxNys8n2Sxllhhky13OPEYUtpii8dKWJN0NQNAQn96Abchws3zutrV-g\/s320\/RatesNov302022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E Note: Mortgage rates are from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/\"\u003EMortgageNewsDaily.com\u003C\/a\u003E and are for top tier scenarios.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 235 thousand initial claims, down from 240 thousand last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also, at 8:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EPersonal Income and Outlays, October 2022\u003C\/b\u003E.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.8% increase in personal spending.  And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.\u0026nbsp; PCE prices are expected to be up 6.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 5.0% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 50.0%, down from 50.2%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also, at 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 0.3% decrease in spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• All day: \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for November. The consensus is for 14.9 million SAAR in November, unchanged from the BEA estimate of 14.9 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4150897749550621118\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4150897749550621118","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4150897749550621118"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4150897749550621118"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/thursday-personal-income-outlays.html","title":"Thursday: Personal Income \u0026 Outlays, Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjsQBaiQPcWiRqKq8P7NUx8QOCM028SuDk4V0KmyJwsemxOpk3sCKojxjpUJQlIP3dgAsV38H2QEq1R2XrW3mVlvHyJNL-qqxR_r4oxD6xlBmYoWrfHF-XV3kn9M0HxNys8n2Sxllhhky13OPEYUtpii8dKWJN0NQNAQn96Abchws3zutrV-g\/s72-c\/RatesNov302022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3967534527017787346"},"published":{"$t":"2022-11-30T16:41:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-11-30T16:41:42.623-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fed's Beige Book: \"Apartment leasing started to slow\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/beigebook202211.htm\"\u003EFed's Beige Book\u003C\/a\u003E \"This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston based on information collected on or before November 23rd, 2022.\"\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EEconomic activity was about flat or up slightly since the previous report\u003C\/b\u003E, down from the modest average pace of growth in the prior Beige Book period. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains in activity, and the rest experienced either no change or slight-to-modest declines. Interest rates and inflation continued to weigh on activity, and many contacts expressed greater uncertainty or increased pessimism concerning the outlook. Nonauto consumer spending was mixed but, on balance, eked out slight gains. Inflation pushed low-to-moderate income consumers to substitute increasingly to lower-priced goods. Travel and tourism contacts, by contrast, reported moderate gains in activity, as restaurants and high-end hospitality venues enjoyed robust demand. Auto sales declined slightly on average, but sales increased significantly in a few Districts in response to higher inventories. Manufacturing activity was mixed across Districts but up slightly on average. Demand for nonfinancial services was flat overall but softened in some Districts. \u003Cb\u003EHigher interest rates further dented home sales, which declined at a moderate pace overall but fell steeply in some Districts; apartment leasing started to slow, as well. Residential construction slid further at a modest pace, while nonresidential construction was mixed but down slightly on average\u003C\/b\u003E. Commercial leasing weakened slightly, and office vacancies edged up. Bank lending saw modest further declines amid increasingly weak demand and tightening credit standards. Agricultural conditions were flat or up a bit, and energy sector activity increased slightly on balance.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EEmployment grew modestly in most districts, but two Districts reported flat headcounts and labor demand weakened overall. Hiring and retention difficulties eased further, although labor markets were still described as tight. Scattered layoffs were reported in the technology, finance, and real estate sectors.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3967534527017787346\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3967534527017787346","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3967534527017787346"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3967534527017787346"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/feds-beige-book-apartment-leasing.html","title":"Fed's Beige Book: \"Apartment leasing started to slow\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-935616350805521244"},"published":{"$t":"2022-11-30T13:38:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-11-30T13:38:19.807-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fed Chair Powell: \"The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Fed Chair Powell: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/powell20221130a.htm\"\u003EInflation and the Labor Market\u003C\/a\u003E.  Excerpts: \u003Cblockquote\u003EToday I will offer a progress report on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) efforts to restore price stability to the U.S. economy for the benefit of the American people. The report must begin by acknowledging the reality that inflation remains far too high. My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation is imposing significant hardship, straining budgets and shrinking what paychecks will buy. This is especially painful for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EHousing services inflation measures the rise in the price of all rents and the rise in the rental-equivalent cost of owner-occupied housing. Unlike goods inflation, housing services inflation has continued to rise and now stands at 7.1 percent over the past 12 months. Housing inflation tends to lag other prices around inflation turning points, however, because of the slow rate at which the stock of rental leases turns over.2 The market rate on new leases is a timelier indicator of where overall housing inflation will go over the next year or so. Measures of 12-month inflation in new leases rose to nearly 20 percent during the pandemic but have been falling sharply since about midyear (figure 3).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjT17HiRtlk3adRXqwSY4QdwgC2bxjvS5Dn72KscrGj6hjiGqNWa14WdDG3U2YK8_0w5mUwA1a1x-oXvbBg4Z8fc-y_CSZq_Fzfn5NnvfFcUXAmww2KJfkYiUSEq_f65eY9oWxOVYCZ_5Z9EC31huoPaQY3NVbMI44Dqvw1gGHtNXGuOM8Adw\/s878\/FedRents.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Fed Rents\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjT17HiRtlk3adRXqwSY4QdwgC2bxjvS5Dn72KscrGj6hjiGqNWa14WdDG3U2YK8_0w5mUwA1a1x-oXvbBg4Z8fc-y_CSZq_Fzfn5NnvfFcUXAmww2KJfkYiUSEq_f65eY9oWxOVYCZ_5Z9EC31huoPaQY3NVbMI44Dqvw1gGHtNXGuOM8Adw\/s320\/FedRents.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAs figure 3 shows, however, overall housing services inflation has continued to rise as existing leases turn over and jump in price to catch up with the higher level of rents for new leases. This is likely to continue well into next year. But as long as new lease inflation keeps falling, we would expect housing services inflation to begin falling sometime next year. Indeed, a decline in this inflation underlies most forecasts of declining inflation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EReturning to monetary policy, my FOMC colleagues and I are strongly committed to restoring price stability. After our November meeting, we noted that we anticipated that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate in order to attain a policy stance that is sufficiently restrictive to move inflation down to 2 percent over time.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. \u003Cb\u003EThe time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting\u003C\/b\u003E. Given our progress in tightening policy, the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level. It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/935616350805521244\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=935616350805521244","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/935616350805521244"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/935616350805521244"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/fed-chair-powell-time-for-moderating.html","title":"Fed Chair Powell: \"The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjT17HiRtlk3adRXqwSY4QdwgC2bxjvS5Dn72KscrGj6hjiGqNWa14WdDG3U2YK8_0w5mUwA1a1x-oXvbBg4Z8fc-y_CSZq_Fzfn5NnvfFcUXAmww2KJfkYiUSEq_f65eY9oWxOVYCZ_5Z9EC31huoPaQY3NVbMI44Dqvw1gGHtNXGuOM8Adw\/s72-c\/FedRents.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6222471703800344553"},"published":{"$t":"2022-11-30T10:48:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-11-30T10:48:27.599-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-33\"\u003EInflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EExcerpt: \u003Cblockquote\u003EIt has been over 16 years since the bubble peak. In the\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/p\/case-shiller-national-house-price-e7c\"\u003ECase-Shiller release\u003C\/a\u003E yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 62% above the bubble peak in 2006.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003EHowever, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak\u003C\/b\u003E\u0026nbsp;(and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).\u0026nbsp; The composite 20, in real terms, is about 3% above the bubble peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBoth indexes have declined for four consecutive months in real terms (inflation adjusted).\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPeople usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.\u0026nbsp; As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be almost $338,000 today adjusted for inflation (69% increase).\u0026nbsp; That is why the second graph below is important - this shows\u0026nbsp;\"real\" prices. ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhUlUWR1qHR35MKe2RBnrON4Bg8uGTIys0BoTRIDjbBYGE8vAZUuTfHyZtudHGEwZNrvq9eWbfhCBZHwGY15CXHrdwc6OY9vJJVdSTYa9gfLJu7Cv5B6AQXyOIC9IKDERKEXR4R7fMjLvmXh6IkiH1e4BeDcc7duga7M9bXITJCo3rXdmcCrg\/s943\/RealSept2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Real House Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhUlUWR1qHR35MKe2RBnrON4Bg8uGTIys0BoTRIDjbBYGE8vAZUuTfHyZtudHGEwZNrvq9eWbfhCBZHwGY15CXHrdwc6OY9vJJVdSTYa9gfLJu7Cv5B6AQXyOIC9IKDERKEXR4R7fMjLvmXh6IkiH1e4BeDcc7duga7M9bXITJCo3rXdmcCrg\/s320\/RealSept2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices. \u003Cb\u003EIn real terms, the National index is 3.3% below the recent peak\u003C\/b\u003E, and the Composite 20 index is 4.4% below the recent peak in 2022.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn real terms, house prices are still above the bubble peak levels. There is an upward slope to real house prices, and it has been over 16 years since the previous peak, but real prices are historically high.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThere is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\"\u003Ehttps:\/\/calculatedrisk.substack.com\/\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6222471703800344553\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6222471703800344553","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6222471703800344553"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6222471703800344553"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-33.html","title":"Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.3% Below Peak"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhUlUWR1qHR35MKe2RBnrON4Bg8uGTIys0BoTRIDjbBYGE8vAZUuTfHyZtudHGEwZNrvq9eWbfhCBZHwGY15CXHrdwc6OY9vJJVdSTYa9gfLJu7Cv5B6AQXyOIC9IKDERKEXR4R7fMjLvmXh6IkiH1e4BeDcc7duga7M9bXITJCo3rXdmcCrg\/s72-c\/RealSept2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5523230190940005144"},"published":{"$t":"2022-11-30T10:11:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-11-30T10:11:17.245-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 4.6% in October, Year-over-year Down 37%"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/pending-home-sales-declined-4-6-in-october\"\u003EPending Home Sales Declined 4.6% in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EPending home sales slid for the fifth consecutive month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three of four U.S. regions recorded month-over-month decreases, and all four regions recorded year-over-year declines in transactions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)\u003C\/b\u003E, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, \u003Cb\u003Esank 4.6% to 77.1 in October\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cb\u003EYear-over-year, pending transactions slipped by 37.0%\u003C\/b\u003E. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"October was a difficult month for home buyers as they faced 20-year-high mortgage rates,\" said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. \"The West region, in particular, suffered from the combination of high interest rates and expensive home prices. Only the Midwest squeaked out a gain.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\"The upcoming months should see a return of buyers, as mortgage rates appear to have already peaked and have been coming down since mid-November.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Northeast PHSI sank 4.3% from last month to 68.7, a fall of 29.5% from October 2021. The Midwest index increased 3.3% to 83.5 in October, a decrease of 32.1% from one year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe South PHSI dropped 6.4% to 90.6 in October, falling 38.2% from the prior year. The West index slipped by 11.3% in October to 55.6, sinking 46.2% from October 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was close to the expected decline for this index.  Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in November and December."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5523230190940005144\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5523230190940005144","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5523230190940005144"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5523230190940005144"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/nar-pending-home-sales-decreased-46-in.html","title":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 4.6% in October, Year-over-year Down 37%"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9042428418512706324"},"published":{"$t":"2022-11-30T10:06:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-11-30T10:06:21.179-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 10.3 million in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the BLS: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/jolts.nr0.htm\"\u003EJob Openings and Labor Turnover Summary\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe number of job openings edged down to 10.3 million\u003C\/b\u003E on the last business day of October, the U.S.  Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month the number of hires and total separations  changed little at 6.0 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) and  layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) changed little.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis series started in December 2000.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. \u003Cb\u003EThis report is for October the employment report this Friday will be for November.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjXgbpU-NRT0FFbAcBCqRfPCotQpOjqclMpTsWqJpbeJ0n5pkYQ625TZ6SAB8RoIya3UPRx3zUNQ9txFjESxR00sOrMz9YufhUWzpg-JAXWXmW8h65zQnnnPp1uIVwcZnhrZGriQ0iRQog6G7uz-Aq9suNSiwgqkiXDKnmUNBR8DcNzKJMaKw\/s1118\/JOLTSOct2022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjXgbpU-NRT0FFbAcBCqRfPCotQpOjqclMpTsWqJpbeJ0n5pkYQ625TZ6SAB8RoIya3UPRx3zUNQ9txFjESxR00sOrMz9YufhUWzpg-JAXWXmW8h65zQnnnPp1uIVwcZnhrZGriQ0iRQog6G7uz-Aq9suNSiwgqkiXDKnmUNBR8DcNzKJMaKw\/s320\/JOLTSOct2022.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.\u0026nbsp; When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EJobs openings decreased in October to 10.334 million from 10.687 million in September.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe number of job openings (black) were down 7% year-over-year.\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EQuits were down 3% year-over-year.  These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for \"quits\").\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9042428418512706324\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9042428418512706324","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9042428418512706324"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9042428418512706324"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/bls-job-openings-decreased-to-103.html","title":"BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 10.3 million in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjXgbpU-NRT0FFbAcBCqRfPCotQpOjqclMpTsWqJpbeJ0n5pkYQ625TZ6SAB8RoIya3UPRx3zUNQ9txFjESxR00sOrMz9YufhUWzpg-JAXWXmW8h65zQnnnPp1uIVwcZnhrZGriQ0iRQog6G7uz-Aq9suNSiwgqkiXDKnmUNBR8DcNzKJMaKw\/s72-c\/JOLTSOct2022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-656971479955352821"},"published":{"$t":"2022-11-30T08:33:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-11-30T08:33:33.530-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Q3 GDP Growth Revised Up to 2.9% Annual Rate"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the BEA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/2022\/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-preliminary-second-quarter\"\u003EGross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), Third Quarter 2022\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EReal gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022\u003C\/b\u003E, according to the \"second\" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the \"advance\" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. The second estimate primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased more than previously estimated\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EReal gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.3 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent in the second quarter (revised). The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.7 percent (revised) in the second quarter.\u003Cbr \/\u003E   \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EHere is a \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/apps.bea.gov\/national\/pdf\/revision_information\/rev1_3q22_2nd.pdf\"\u003EComparison of Second and Advance Estimates\u003C\/a\u003E.  PCE growth was revised up from 1.4% to 1.7%. Residential investment was revised down from -26.4% to -26.8%."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/656971479955352821\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=656971479955352821","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/656971479955352821"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/656971479955352821"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/q3-gdp-growth-revised-up-to-29-annual.html","title":"Q3 GDP Growth Revised Up to 2.9% Annual Rate"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2738220367562321995"},"published":{"$t":"2022-11-30T08:21:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-11-30T08:21:44.010-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ADP: Private Employment Increased 127,000 in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From ADP: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adp-ri-nrip-static.adp.com\/artifacts\/us_ner\/20221130\/ADP_NATIONAL_EMPLOYMENT_REPORT_Press_Release_2022_11%20FINAL.pdf\"\u003EADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 127,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 7.6%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrivate sector employment increased by 127,000 jobs in November\u003C\/b\u003E and annual pay was up 7.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National  Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital  Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data of over  25 million U.S. employees to provide a representative picture of the labor market. The report details the  current month’s total private employment change, and weekly job data from the previous month. ADP’s  pay measure uniquely captures the earnings of a cohort of almost 10 million employees over a 12-month  period.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“Turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggest that Federal Reserve  tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist,  ADP. “In addition, companies are no longer in hyper-replacement mode. Fewer people are quitting and  the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was below the consensus forecast of 200,000.\u0026nbsp; The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 200 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in November."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2738220367562321995\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2738220367562321995","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2738220367562321995"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2738220367562321995"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/adp-private-employment-increased-127000.html","title":"ADP: Private Employment Increased 127,000 in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8732552971302252084"},"published":{"$t":"2022-11-30T07:00:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2022-11-30T07:00:00.416-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from  one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage  Applications Survey for the week ending November 25, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment  for the observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E... The Refinance Index decreased 13 percent from the previous  week and was 86 percent lower than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase  Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 31 percent compared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E41 percent lower than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“Mortgage rates declined again last week, following bond yields lower. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate  decreased to 6.49 percent and has now fallen 57 basis points over the past four weeks. Additionally,  mortgage rates for most other loan types declined,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy  Chief Economist. “The economy here and abroad is weakening, which should lead to slower inflation and  allow the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes. Purchase activity increased slightly after adjusting for the  Thanksgiving holiday, but the decline in rates was still not enough to bring back refinance activity.  Refinance applications fell another 13 percent, and the refinance share of applications was at 26 percent.  Both measures were at their lowest levels since 2000.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances  ($647,200 or less) decreased to 6.49 percent from 6.67 percent, with points remaining at 0.68 (including  the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjcHpq5dnpEa35dregxVbLM8UVtsS6luXtSDS9vPM4qFpB4GKvMdxUg-8YRWHV9c8J4-CI244IFfootIZXJDPbcsObHkbVAm0byi-5RkSifbYFPpqWB8ihecmgk_hz4M1g6aeb6daDfFwhn_pm063bzQgRgztD5hCo3YjfYm8LWx7Z7oFvoCg\/s1088\/MBARefiNov302022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjcHpq5dnpEa35dregxVbLM8UVtsS6luXtSDS9vPM4qFpB4GKvMdxUg-8YRWHV9c8J4-CI244IFfootIZXJDPbcsObHkbVAm0byi-5RkSifbYFPpqWB8ihecmgk_hz4M1g6aeb6daDfFwhn_pm063bzQgRgztD5hCo3YjfYm8LWx7Z7oFvoCg\/s320\/MBARefiNov302022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EWith higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjm_FZvGSTwH0GPYH_FCixEIkA529QAN9dX6PBqL10OchRBX_HbBcuTH9Y9tOFoVr89LPX0HH7BH6ikv6D0_ofjdsoKHfG3tZuDL3XTmApaMyjANXpGnEPWfkXLqYG4_sxfOvR_cdxyJDUrBDabN-k8MK75HoBK7H1uVkmqHCnRZduVzfSVBw\/s1090\/MBANov302022.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjm_FZvGSTwH0GPYH_FCixEIkA529QAN9dX6PBqL10OchRBX_HbBcuTH9Y9tOFoVr89LPX0HH7BH6ikv6D0_ofjdsoKHfG3tZuDL3XTmApaMyjANXpGnEPWfkXLqYG4_sxfOvR_cdxyJDUrBDabN-k8MK75HoBK7H1uVkmqHCnRZduVzfSVBw\/s320\/MBANov302022.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 41% year-over-year unadjusted.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe purchase index is just below the pandemic low and up slightly from the lowest level since 2015.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E  Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8732552971302252084\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8732552971302252084","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8732552971302252084"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8732552971302252084"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2022\/11\/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in_0650395375.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEjcHpq5dnpEa35dregxVbLM8UVtsS6luXtSDS9vPM4qFpB4GKvMdxUg-8YRWHV9c8J4-CI244IFfootIZXJDPbcsObHkbVAm0byi-5RkSifbYFPpqWB8ihecmgk_hz4M1g6aeb6daDfFwhn_pm063bzQgRgztD5hCo3YjfYm8LWx7Z7oFvoCg\/s72-c\/MBARefiNov302022.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});