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MMI"},{"term":"FASB"},{"term":"Fleck"},{"term":"Fore"},{"term":"GuestNerd"},{"term":"Hotel"},{"term":"LIGHTBULB"},{"term":"Nothingburger"},{"term":"Pre-Confessional"},{"term":"Short sales"},{"term":"Spreadsheets"},{"term":"UberNerd GuestNerd"},{"term":"Unternerd"},{"term":"WASN"},{"term":"a failure by any other name"},{"term":"da"},{"term":"deliquency"},{"term":"ee cummings"},{"term":"housing bubble II"},{"term":"jumbo"},{"term":"loan modifications."},{"term":"que"},{"term":"shell game"},{"term":"summary"},{"term":"the day the cookies died"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Calculated Risk"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Finance and Economics"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"26922"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4710727489565367470"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-02T21:15:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-02T21:15:01.486-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Services"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.mortgagenewsdaily.com\/consumer_rates\/961502.aspx\"\u003EMortgage Rates Continue Defying Bond Market Weakness\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cblockquote\u003EAlthough it was the focus of yesterday's discussion, the ability of the mortgage market to hold steady in the face of bond market weakness continues to impress. ... Regardless of the movement, the average lender remains very close to all-time lows and well under 3% for most top tier conventional scenarios.\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThursday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:30 AM ET, The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.  The consensus is for 825,000 initial claims, up from 778,000 last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, the \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4710727489565367470\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4710727489565367470","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4710727489565367470"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4710727489565367470"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/thursday-unemployment-claims-ism.html","title":"Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Services"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8689800582323756317"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-02T19:16:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-02T19:16:27.888-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"December 2 COVID-19 Test Results; Over 100,000 Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: The data was distorted over the holiday weekend.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,163,137 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 195,695  positive tests.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOver 5,200 US deaths have been reported so far in December.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-X64CwbNWCNs\/X8gtoZ_pjKI\/AAAAAAAA3Qc\/QD20p-izrjMfJc4ivj5hrDdMavvWl3YKgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1165\/COVIDDec22020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day and Percent Positive\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-X64CwbNWCNs\/X8gtoZ_pjKI\/AAAAAAAA3Qc\/QD20p-izrjMfJc4ivj5hrDdMavvWl3YKgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDDec22020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 16.8% (red line is 7 day average).\u0026nbsp; The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/--zz2qmLb3ow\/X8guNNft7LI\/AAAAAAAA3Qk\/_4OiWeQrz089Ren8xMUzaUow3mGRVpGLQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1186\/COVIDCasesDec22020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/--zz2qmLb3ow\/X8guNNft7LI\/AAAAAAAA3Qk\/_4OiWeQrz089Ren8xMUzaUow3mGRVpGLQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesDec22020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• Record Hospitalizations (Over 100,000)"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8689800582323756317\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8689800582323756317","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8689800582323756317"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8689800582323756317"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/december-2-covid-19-test-results-over.html","title":"December 2 COVID-19 Test Results; Over 100,000 Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-X64CwbNWCNs\/X8gtoZ_pjKI\/AAAAAAAA3Qc\/QD20p-izrjMfJc4ivj5hrDdMavvWl3YKgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDDec22020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2094328762118399775"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-02T14:07:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-02T14:07:10.349-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fed's Beige Book: \"modest or moderate\" Growth in Economic Activity, Some Districts see \"No growth\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/beigebook202012.htm\"\u003EFed's Beige Book\u003C\/a\u003E \"This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on information collected on or before November 20, 2020.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMost Federal Reserve Districts have characterized \u003Cb\u003Eeconomic expansion as modest or moderate\u003C\/b\u003E since the prior Beige Book period. However, \u003Cb\u003Efour Districts described little or no growth\u003C\/b\u003E, and five narratives noted that activity remained below pre-pandemic levels for at least some sectors. Moreover, Philadelphia and three of the four Midwestern Districts observed that \u003Cb\u003Eactivity began to slow in early November as COVID-19 cases surged\u003C\/b\u003E. Reports tended to indicate higher-than-average growth of manufacturing, distribution and logistics, homebuilding, and existing home sales, although not without disruptions. Banking contacts in numerous Districts reported \u003Cb\u003Esome deterioration of loan portfolios, particularly for commercial lending into the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors. An increase in delinquencies in 2021 is more widely anticipated\u003C\/b\u003E. Most Districts reported that firms' outlooks remained positive; however, optimism has waned--many contacts cited concerns over the recent pandemic wave, mandated restrictions (recent and prospective), and the looming expiration dates for unemployment benefits and for moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003ENearly all Districts reported that employment rose, but for most, the pace was slow\u003C\/b\u003E, at best, and the recovery remained incomplete. Firms that were hiring continued to report difficulties in attracting and retaining workers. Many contacts noted that the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases had precipitated more school and plant closings and renewed fears of infection, which have further aggravated labor supply problems, including absenteeism and attrition. Providing for childcare and virtual schooling needs was widely cited as a significant and growing issue for the workforce, especially for women—prompting some firms to extend greater accommodations for flexible work schedules. In several Districts, firms feared that employment levels would fall over the winter before recovering further. Despite hiring difficulties, firms in most Districts reported that wages grew at a slight or modest pace overall. However, many noted greater pressure to raise rates for low-skilled workers, especially in outlying areas. Staffing firms described greater placement success with competitive rates, and one firm instituted a minimum wage rate for its industrial clients.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003ECR Note: The pandemic is depressing activity again.   Also note the concern about some commercial lending."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2094328762118399775\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2094328762118399775","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2094328762118399775"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2094328762118399775"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/feds-beige-book-modest-or-moderate.html","title":"Fed's Beige Book: \"modest or moderate\" Growth in Economic Activity, Some Districts see \"No growth\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1242104411414723406"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-02T09:40:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-02T09:40:06.212-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November Vehicles Sales decreased to 15.55 Million SAAR"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for November this morning.  The BEA estimates sales of 15.55 million SAAR in November 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 4.5% from the October sales rate, and down 8.4% from November 2019.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was below the consensus estimate of 16.2 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-f3MN0XeJldY\/X8elt1hyrvI\/AAAAAAAA3QM\/oj2dFaY1EXEs45jGscQYWQqCKwAwCASwgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s968\/VSShortNov2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-f3MN0XeJldY\/X8elt1hyrvI\/AAAAAAAA3QM\/oj2dFaY1EXEs45jGscQYWQqCKwAwCASwgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/VSShortNov2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for November (red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESince April, sales have increased, but are still down 8.4% from last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-YgBr4PYpk3c\/X8elvqhfv5I\/AAAAAAAA3QQ\/VMxoILMhAWoDUaYsQI2SFb4c5Ue9aPJswCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1053\/VSNov2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-YgBr4PYpk3c\/X8elvqhfv5I\/AAAAAAAA3QQ\/VMxoILMhAWoDUaYsQI2SFb4c5Ue9aPJswCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/VSNov2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003ENote: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 15.55 million SAAR.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn 2019, there were 15.92 million light vehicle sales through November.\u0026nbsp; In 2020, there have been 13.20 million sales.\u0026nbsp; That puts sales-to-date down 17.1% in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1242104411414723406\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1242104411414723406","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1242104411414723406"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1242104411414723406"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/november-vehicles-sales-decreased-to.html","title":"November Vehicles Sales decreased to 15.55 Million SAAR"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-f3MN0XeJldY\/X8elt1hyrvI\/AAAAAAAA3QM\/oj2dFaY1EXEs45jGscQYWQqCKwAwCASwgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/VSShortNov2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7207329736880627852"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-02T08:19:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-02T08:19:50.300-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ADP: Private Employment increased 307,000 in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/adpemploymentreport.com\/2020\/November\/NER\/NER-November-2020.aspx\"\u003EFrom ADP:\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cb\u003EPrivate sector employment increased by 307,000 jobs\u003C\/b\u003E from October to November according to the Novembe ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E“While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was below the consensus forecast for 420 thousand private sector jobs added in the ADP report.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 500 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in November.  Of course the ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7207329736880627852\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7207329736880627852","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7207329736880627852"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7207329736880627852"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/adp-private-employment-increased-307000.html","title":"ADP: Private Employment increased 307,000 in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-726533591253904770"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-02T07:00:00.016-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-02T07:00:03.228-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EMortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EMortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 27, 2020. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 102 percent higher than the same week one year ago. \u003Cb\u003EThe seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier\u003C\/b\u003E. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 28 percent compared with the previous week and was \u003Cb\u003E28 percent higher than the same week one year ago\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAfter adjusting for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage applications were mixed, with a jump in purchase applications and a decline in refinances. Purchase activity continued to show impressive year-over-year gains, with both the conventional and government segments of the market posting another week of growth,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase loan amounts continue to be significantly higher than their average over the past decade and hit $375,000 last week, the largest since the inception of MBA’s survey in 1990. Housing demand remains strong, and despite extremely tight inventory and rising prices, home sales are running at their strongest pace in over a decade.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EAdded Kan, “The sustained period of low mortgage rates continues to spark borrower demand, and the mortgage industry is poised for its strongest year in originations since 2003. The ongoing refinance wave has been beneficial to homeowners looking to lower their monthly payments during these challenging economic times brought forth by the pandemic.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) remained unchanged at 2.92 percent, with points decreasing to 0.31 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-WQe1gfL26MQ\/X8bbhrQz5WI\/AAAAAAAA3Pw\/B8f4Z3A0l1MgOIWu3MgYBDe_sph_W1_hQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1088\/MBARefiDec22020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Refinance Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-WQe1gfL26MQ\/X8bbhrQz5WI\/AAAAAAAA3Pw\/B8f4Z3A0l1MgOIWu3MgYBDe_sph_W1_hQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBARefiDec22020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EBut with record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-khsbigmQ4yo\/X8bbkj4GgEI\/AAAAAAAA3P0\/c5FjSpgpFuM-F70E8gpZPoAhfv6VdV9zQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1086\/MBADec22020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Mortgage Purchase Index\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-khsbigmQ4yo\/X8bbkj4GgEI\/AAAAAAAA3P0\/c5FjSpgpFuM-F70E8gpZPoAhfv6VdV9zQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBADec22020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is up 28% year-over-year unadjusted.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/726533591253904770\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=726533591253904770","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/726533591253904770"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/726533591253904770"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in.html","title":"MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-WQe1gfL26MQ\/X8bbhrQz5WI\/AAAAAAAA3Pw\/B8f4Z3A0l1MgOIWu3MgYBDe_sph_W1_hQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBARefiDec22020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4897124168601523739"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-01T21:15:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-01T21:15:00.131-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Wednesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 8:15 AM, The \u003Cb\u003EADP Employment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 420,000 jobs added, up from 365,000 in October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003ETestimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E, \u003Ci\u003ECoronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act\u003C\/i\u003E, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 2:00 PM, the \u003Cb\u003EFederal Reserve Beige Book\u003C\/b\u003E, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4897124168601523739\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4897124168601523739","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4897124168601523739"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4897124168601523739"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/wednesday-adp-employment-beige-book.html","title":"Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3242118425582246866"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-01T19:22:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-01T19:22:59.377-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"December 1 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: The data was distorted over the holiday weekend.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,065,594 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 176,751  positive tests.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlmost 2,500 US deaths have been reported so far in December (one day!).  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xjDXvsJvYlM\/X8bdoHmQcNI\/AAAAAAAA3P8\/GYNiEm3Ea3slrnMH99JDQVGQLc_aGhvtQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1166\/COVIDDec12020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day and Percent Positive\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xjDXvsJvYlM\/X8bdoHmQcNI\/AAAAAAAA3P8\/GYNiEm3Ea3slrnMH99JDQVGQLc_aGhvtQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDDec12020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 16.6% (red line is 7 day average).\u0026nbsp; The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-gxPdpyfvpAU\/X8bdqVzMP7I\/AAAAAAAA3QA\/leTGFvSNkHQ7n8nJHJCJ-2XLxtl-jIdBQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1186\/COVIDCasesDec12020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-gxPdpyfvpAU\/X8bdqVzMP7I\/AAAAAAAA3QA\/leTGFvSNkHQ7n8nJHJCJ-2XLxtl-jIdBQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesDec12020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• Record Hospitalizations (Almost 100,000)"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3242118425582246866\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3242118425582246866","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3242118425582246866"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3242118425582246866"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/december-1-covid-19-test-results-record.html","title":"December 1 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-xjDXvsJvYlM\/X8bdoHmQcNI\/AAAAAAAA3P8\/GYNiEm3Ea3slrnMH99JDQVGQLc_aGhvtQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDDec12020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8238211666989250192"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-01T16:01:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-01T16:01:49.498-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MBA Survey: \"Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.54%\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: This is as of November 22nd.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom the MBA: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-research-and-resources\/newsroom\"\u003EShare of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.54%\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance  increased from 5.48% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to \u003Cb\u003E5.54% as of November 22, 2020\u003C\/b\u003E. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.8 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003E“\u003Cb\u003EFor the second week in a row, the share of loans in forbearance has increased, driven by a rise in new forbearance requests and another slowdown in the pace of forbearance exits\u003C\/b\u003E. The increase was across all loan and servicer types. Even GSE loans, which had previously declined for 24 straight weeks, saw an increase last week,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Additionally concerning, there was an increase in forbearance re-entries, as borrowers who had previously exited sought relief again. The increase in new forbearance requests may be the result of additional outreach to homeowners who had previously not taken advantage of forbearance opportunities. However, the slowing rate of exits to a new survey low further highlights that borrowers still in forbearance are increasingly challenged by the renewed restrictions on economic activity to contain the surge in COVID-19 cases.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EAdded Fratantoni, “Recent housing market data remain quite strong and we expect that the market is well positioned for additional growth next year, but these data show that additional support is likely needed to get through this winter.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EBy stage, 20.34% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 77.42% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 2.24% are forbearance re-entries.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-7BaQnQsYS3s\/X8atc5MNpDI\/AAAAAAAA3Po\/neLvbn3q21cr5lO5e60nY1PIW4_b9yyJgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1215\/MBAForbearDec12020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"MBA Forbearance Survey\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-7BaQnQsYS3s\/X8atc5MNpDI\/AAAAAAAA3Po\/neLvbn3q21cr5lO5e60nY1PIW4_b9yyJgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MBAForbearDec12020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.\u0026nbsp; Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe MBA notes: \"Weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased to 0.11 percent from 0.09 percent the previous week.\""},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8238211666989250192\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8238211666989250192","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8238211666989250192"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8238211666989250192"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html","title":"MBA Survey: \"Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.54%\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-7BaQnQsYS3s\/X8atc5MNpDI\/AAAAAAAA3Po\/neLvbn3q21cr5lO5e60nY1PIW4_b9yyJgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/MBAForbearDec12020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2676630791064397755"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-01T12:57:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-01T12:57:04.376-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 50% Year-over-year"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows CME framing futures through Nov 30th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Yi2jdhZWGMg\/X8aDwSBJBaI\/AAAAAAAA3Pg\/5dXiH8D_QnwyVsHgTovwSkovIRlNxmgUQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1000\/LumberDec12020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Lumcber Prices\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Yi2jdhZWGMg\/X8aDwSBJBaI\/AAAAAAAA3Pg\/5dXiH8D_QnwyVsHgTovwSkovIRlNxmgUQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/LumberDec12020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis is down sharply from late August, but still up 51% year-over-year.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EClearly there was a surge in demand for lumber mid-year - then the mills started catching up - but demand remains strong.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2676630791064397755\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2676630791064397755","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2676630791064397755"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2676630791064397755"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/update-framing-lumber-prices-up-50-year.html","title":"Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 50% Year-over-year"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Yi2jdhZWGMg\/X8aDwSBJBaI\/AAAAAAAA3Pg\/5dXiH8D_QnwyVsHgTovwSkovIRlNxmgUQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/LumberDec12020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6632947092567811039"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-01T10:38:00.005-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-01T10:38:51.621-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Construction Spending Increased 1.3% in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Census Bureau \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/c30\/pdf\/release.pdf\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that overall construction spending decreased in June:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EConstruction spending during October 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,438.5 billion, \u003Cb\u003E1.3 percent above the revised September estimate\u003C\/b\u003E of $1,420.4 billion. The October figure is 3.7 percent above the October 2019 estimate of $1,386.8 billion.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EBoth private and public spending increased:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ESpending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,093.7 billion, 1.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,078.9 billion.  ...\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIn October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $344.8 billion, 1.0 percent above the revised September estimate of $341.4 billion.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Z3KIFG6T5q8\/X8ZiKqFTz8I\/AAAAAAAA3PQ\/-asCrd9TB98sHMJHmHWEeHjnUXJmOYbBwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1010\/ConSpendOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Z3KIFG6T5q8\/X8ZiKqFTz8I\/AAAAAAAA3PQ\/-asCrd9TB98sHMJHmHWEeHjnUXJmOYbBwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ConSpendOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EResidential spending is 6% below the previous peak.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENon-residential spending is 10% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EPublic construction spending is 6% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 32% above the austerity low in February 2014. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-578yFcWALZM\/X8ZiM0gAo-I\/AAAAAAAA3PU\/1s8UvpDT6HY0XA5cb2n302m5XXUmlcP_QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1040\/ConSpendYoYOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Year-over-year Construction Spending\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-578yFcWALZM\/X8ZiM0gAo-I\/AAAAAAAA3PU\/1s8UvpDT6HY0XA5cb2n302m5XXUmlcP_QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ConSpendYoYOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOn a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 14.5%.  Non-residential spending is down 8.2% year-over-year.  Public spending is up 3.7% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EConstruction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but it seems likely that non-residential, and public spending (depending on disaster relief), will be under pressure.  \u003Cb\u003EFor example, lodging is down 23% YoY, multi-retail down 19% YoY, and office down 8% YoY\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThis was above consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase in spending, and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up (mostly private residential).\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/6632947092567811039\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=6632947092567811039","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6632947092567811039"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/6632947092567811039"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/construction-spending-increased-13-in.html","title":"Construction Spending Increased 1.3% in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Z3KIFG6T5q8\/X8ZiKqFTz8I\/AAAAAAAA3PQ\/-asCrd9TB98sHMJHmHWEeHjnUXJmOYbBwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ConSpendOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4577153633627210051"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-01T10:07:00.007-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-01T10:07:52.611-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 57.5 in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in November.  The PMI was at 57.5% in November, down from 59.3% in October.  The employment index was at 48.4%, down from 53.2% last month, and the new orders index was at 65.1%, down from 67.9%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom ISM: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/manufacturing-pmi-at-57-5-november-2020-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-301181920.html\"\u003EManufacturing PMI® at 57.5%; November 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EEconomic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in November, with the overall economy notching a seventh consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\"\u003Cb\u003EThe November Manufacturing PMI® registered 57.5 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, down 1.8 percentage points from the October reading of 59.3 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the seventh month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. \u003Cb\u003EThe New Orders Index registered 65.1 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, down 2.8 percentage points from the October reading of 67.9 percent. The Production Index registered 60.8 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to the October reading of 63 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 56.9 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher compared to the October reading of 55.7 percent. \u003Cb\u003EThe Employment Index returned to contraction territory at 48.4 percent\u003C\/b\u003E, 4.8 percentage points down from the October reading of 53.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.7 percent, up 1.2 percentage points from the October figure of 60.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the October reading of 51.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 65.4 percent, down 0.1 percentage point compared to the October reading of 65.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 57.8 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to the October reading of 55.7 percent. The Imports Index registered 55.1 percent, a 3-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 58.1 percent.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Yv3JqxuKABQ\/X8Zb_aSsPYI\/AAAAAAAA3PI\/REc8bU-_3G4_UkpIO1VTO62kX0I9B3jwQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1031\/ISMNov2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"ISM PMI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Yv3JqxuKABQ\/X8Zb_aSsPYI\/AAAAAAAA3PI\/REc8bU-_3G4_UkpIO1VTO62kX0I9B3jwQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ISMNov2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis was at expectations, however the employment index moved below 50 (contraction).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis suggests manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in November than in October."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4577153633627210051\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4577153633627210051","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4577153633627210051"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4577153633627210051"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/ism-manufacturing-index-decreased-to.html","title":"ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 57.5 in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-Yv3JqxuKABQ\/X8Zb_aSsPYI\/AAAAAAAA3PI\/REc8bU-_3G4_UkpIO1VTO62kX0I9B3jwQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ISMNov2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8537379822893256554"},"published":{"$t":"2020-12-01T08:00:00.011-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-12-01T08:00:00.125-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.3% Year-over-year in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Notes: \u003Cb\u003EThis CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October\u003C\/b\u003E.  The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September.  The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom CoreLogic: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.corelogic.com\/insights\/home-price-index.aspx\"\u003EGaining Momentum: Annual U.S. Home Prices Appreciated 7.3% in October, CoreLogic Reports\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ECoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for October 2020. Nationally, \u003Cb\u003Ehome prices increased 7.3% in October 2020, compared with October 2019\u003C\/b\u003E, marking the fastest annual appreciation since April 2014. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.1% compared to September 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EHome prices climbed in recent months due to heightened demand and ongoing home supply constraints. The supply shortage could further intensify as COVID-19 cases continue to rise and would-be sellers remain hesitant about putting their homes on the market. However, to keep up with the rising demand, new home construction surged in October and builder confidence reached a new high for the third consecutive month. The decreased pressure on supply could moderate home price growth over the next year. This is reflected in the CoreLogic HPI Forecast, which shows home prices slowing to 1.9% by October 2021. However, should the economic recovery from the pandemic be more robust, then we would expect projections for home price performance to improve.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“Home buyers have been spurred by record-low mortgage rates and an urgency to buy or upgrade to more space, especially as much of the American workforce continues to work from home,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “First-time buyers in particular should remain a big part of next year’s home purchases, as the largest wave of millennials is heading into prime home-buying years.” \u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E“The pandemic has shifted home buyer interest toward detached rather than attached homes,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Detached homes offer more living space and are typically located in less densely populated neighborhoods. And while prices of single-family detached homes posted an annual increase of 7.9% in October, the price of attached homes rose only 4.5% year over year.”\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8537379822893256554\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8537379822893256554","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8537379822893256554"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8537379822893256554"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/12\/corelogic-house-prices-up-73-year-over.html","title":"CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.3% Year-over-year in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7890095945133432263"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-30T21:46:00.009-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-30T21:46:00.242-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Fed Chair Powell Testimony"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Tuesday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 57.5%, down from 59.3%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also at 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• Also at 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003ETestimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E, \u003Ci\u003ECoronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act\u003C\/i\u003E, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• All day, \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for November. The consensus is for 16.2 million SAAR in November, unchanged from the BEA estimate of 16.2 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/7890095945133432263\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=7890095945133432263","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7890095945133432263"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/7890095945133432263"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/tuesday-ism-manufacturing-construction.html","title":"Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Fed Chair Powell Testimony"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-5255549444326748692"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-30T19:45:00.002-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-30T19:45:19.371-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 30 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: The data has been distorted over the holiday weekend.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,365,100 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 147,074  positive tests.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlmost 37,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1PldiOhUJ-g\/X8WRsQPcT5I\/AAAAAAAA3Ow\/H2_Pyu3c0MIiDwkqOGReRdxw9ulm4Q4SgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1174\/COVIDNov302020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day and Percent Positive\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1PldiOhUJ-g\/X8WRsQPcT5I\/AAAAAAAA3Ow\/H2_Pyu3c0MIiDwkqOGReRdxw9ulm4Q4SgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov302020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 10.7% (red line is 7 day average).\u0026nbsp; The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/--nlTBkTNr7Q\/X8WRukbefVI\/AAAAAAAA3O0\/wip54eN_yis1lWSEjEaA3GcVwU9lu4o9wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1182\/COVIDCasesNov302020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/--nlTBkTNr7Q\/X8WRukbefVI\/AAAAAAAA3O0\/wip54eN_yis1lWSEjEaA3GcVwU9lu4o9wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov302020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• Record Hospitalizations (Almost 100,000)"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/5255549444326748692\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=5255549444326748692","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5255549444326748692"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/5255549444326748692"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-30-covid-19-test-results.html","title":"November 30 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-1PldiOhUJ-g\/X8WRsQPcT5I\/AAAAAAAA3Ow\/H2_Pyu3c0MIiDwkqOGReRdxw9ulm4Q4SgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov302020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8833697624647105881"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-30T16:08:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-30T16:08:09.469-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Fannie Mae \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/portal\/about-fm\/investor-relations\/monthly-summary.html\"\u003Ereported\u003C\/a\u003E that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 3.05% in October, from 3.20% in September. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.67% in October 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese are mortgage loans that are \"three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-nva0poD_ukE\/X8VehYKCVKI\/AAAAAAAA3Oo\/KgGk5wLLiBgON0G832gza8R3gehumC_cgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s946\/FannieOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-nva0poD_ukE\/X8VehYKCVKI\/AAAAAAAA3Oo\/KgGk5wLLiBgON0G832gza8R3gehumC_cgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/FannieOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EBy vintage\u003C\/b\u003E, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 5.82% are seriously delinquent (up from 5.81% in September).  \u003Cb\u003EFor loans made in 2005 through 2008\u003C\/b\u003E (3% of portfolio), \u003Cb\u003E9.84% are seriously delinquent\u003C\/b\u003E (unchanged from 9.84%),  For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (95% of portfolio), 2.57% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.74%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. \u0026nbsp; Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/freddie-mac-mortgage-serious.html\"\u003EFreddie Mac reported\u003C\/a\u003E earlier."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8833697624647105881\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8833697624647105881","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8833697624647105881"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8833697624647105881"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/fannie-mae-mortgage-serious-delinquency.html","title":"Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-nva0poD_ukE\/X8VehYKCVKI\/AAAAAAAA3Oo\/KgGk5wLLiBgON0G832gza8R3gehumC_cgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/FannieOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-9140834176682739297"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-30T14:11:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-30T14:11:18.206-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 49% YoY in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/assets.simpleviewcms.com\/simpleview\/image\/upload\/v1\/clients\/lasvegas\/ES_Oct_2020_d29dc2cc-f541-42c1-8f15-2fb8017089b4.pdf\"\u003EOctober 2020 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EVisitor volume continued to ramp‐up in October as the destination hosted approx. 1.86M visitors, about half of last October's tally but up 9% from last month.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EWith continued hotel re‐openings at the end of Sep and in early Oct, the room tally of open properties in October represented 140,658 rooms. Total occupancy was 46.9% for the month as weekend occupancy reached 64.2% and midweek occupancy reached 38.6%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EAverage daily rates among open properties reached $104.54 (‐3.3% MoM, ‐22.8% YoY) while RevPAR came in at roughly $49, down ‐59.7% vs. last October.   \u003Cbr \/\u003E* \u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003EReflects weighted average of daily room tallies\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EHere is the data from the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.lvcva.com\/stats-and-facts\/visitor-statistics\/\"\u003ELas Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hF50hoD1amU\/X8VDnlNLaEI\/AAAAAAAA3Og\/JSsQyfKTpfYD4EUKTVlyQ5reEYZJQ-ToACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1035\/LasVegasOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Las Vegas\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hF50hoD1amU\/X8VDnlNLaEI\/AAAAAAAA3Og\/JSsQyfKTpfYD4EUKTVlyQ5reEYZJQ-ToACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/LasVegasOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe blue and red bars are monthly visitor traffic (left scale) for 2019 and 2020. \u0026nbsp; The dashed blue and orange lines are convention attendance (right scale).\u0026nbsp; \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EConvention traffic in October was down 100% compared to October 2019. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd visitor traffic was down 49% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe casinos started to reopen on June 4th (it appears about 94% of rooms have now opened)."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/9140834176682739297\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=9140834176682739297","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9140834176682739297"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/9140834176682739297"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/las-vegas-visitor-authority-no.html","title":"Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 49% YoY in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-hF50hoD1amU\/X8VDnlNLaEI\/AAAAAAAA3Og\/JSsQyfKTpfYD4EUKTVlyQ5reEYZJQ-ToACLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/LasVegasOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-8498692963673270447"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-30T10:41:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-30T10:41:33.238-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Dallas Fed: \"Texas Manufacturing Expansion Moderates\" in November"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the Dallas Fed: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/surveys\/tmos\/2020\/2011.aspx\"\u003ETexas Manufacturing Expansion Moderates\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003ETexas factory activity expanded in November for the sixth consecutive month, though at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 25.5 to 7.2, indicating a deceleration in output growth.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EOther measures of manufacturing activity also point to slower growth this month, as the indexes remained positive but came in below last month’s readings. The new orders index dropped 13 points to 7.2, and the growth rate of orders index fell five points to 9.7. The capacity utilization index dropped from 23.0 to 6.9, and the shipments index fell from 21.9 to 13.7.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to improve in November, though the indexes retreated from their October levels. \u003Cb\u003EThe general business activity index remained positive but fell from 19.8 to 12.0.\u003C\/b\u003E Similarly, the company outlook index fell from 17.8 to 11.0. Uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks continued to rise, though the index declined from 11.0 to 7.2.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003ELabor market measures indicated stronger growth in employment and work hours. \u003Cb\u003EThe employment index ticked up three points to 11.7, suggesting a slight pickup in hiring\u003C\/b\u003E. Twenty-five percent of firms noted net hiring, while 13 percent noted net layoffs. The hours worked index moved up from 3.7 to 9.7.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was the last of the regional Fed surveys for November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-4CH5TbX_3r0\/X8USC6YYx3I\/AAAAAAAA3OY\/8wGd_mXOlH07Sx5a3TB9ctEb9Ajoto-_gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1021\/ISMFedNov2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-4CH5TbX_3r0\/X8USC6YYx3I\/AAAAAAAA3OY\/8wGd_mXOlH07Sx5a3TB9ctEb9Ajoto-_gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ISMFedNov2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"320\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through November), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through November) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through October (right axis).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe ISM manufacturing index for November will be released tomorrow, December 1st. Based on these regional surveys, the ISM manufacturing index will likely decrease in November from the October level. The consensus is for a reading of 57.5%, down from 59.3%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that these are diffusion indexes, so readings above 0 (or 50 for the ISM) means activity is increasing (it does not mean that activity is back to pre-crisis levels).\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/8498692963673270447\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=8498692963673270447","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8498692963673270447"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/8498692963673270447"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/dallas-fed-texas-manufacturing.html","title":"Dallas Fed: \"Texas Manufacturing Expansion Moderates\" in November"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-4CH5TbX_3r0\/X8USC6YYx3I\/AAAAAAAA3OY\/8wGd_mXOlH07Sx5a3TB9ctEb9Ajoto-_gCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ISMFedNov2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3441119127715670963"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-30T10:02:00.003-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-30T10:02:36.651-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 1.1% in October"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"From the NAR: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/pending-home-sales-dip-1-1-in-october\"\u003EPending Home Sales Dip 1.1% in October\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EPending home sales fell slightly in October, according to the National Association of Realtors. Contract activity was mixed among the four major U.S. regions, with the only positive month-over-month growth happening in the South, although each region achieved year-over-year gains in pending home sales transactions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, \u003Cb\u003Efell 1.1% to 128.9 in October, the second straight month of decline\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cb\u003EYear-over-year, contract signings rose 20.2%\u003C\/b\u003E. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.\u003Cbr \/\u003E...\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Northeast PHSI slid 5.9% to 112.3 in October, a 18.5% increase from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 0.7% to 119.6 last month, up 19.6% from October 2019.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EPending home sales in the South increased 0.1% to an index of 151.1 in October, up 21.0% from October 2019. The index in the West remained the same in October, at 116.8, which is up 20.8% from a year ago.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThis was below expectations for this index.  Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in November and December."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3441119127715670963\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3441119127715670963","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3441119127715670963"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3441119127715670963"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/nar-pending-home-sales-decrease-11-in.html","title":"NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 1.1% in October"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3219765727304084752"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-30T08:29:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-30T08:29:28.901-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"NOTE: Some of this data was impacted by Thanksgiving.  For example, transit data is always down during holidays.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThese indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed.\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EIMPORTANT: Be safe now - if all goes well, we could all be vaccinated by Q2 2021.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe TSA is providing \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.tsa.gov\/coronavirus\/passenger-throughput\"\u003Edaily travel numbers\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-PxdoH4mLk0k\/X8TzNy7pp9I\/AAAAAAAA3OQ\/scWIpREOH68d_AxJrZCw4Jb1P5lDm38xwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1031\/TSANov292020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"TSA Traveler Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-PxdoH4mLk0k\/X8TzNy7pp9I\/AAAAAAAA3OQ\/scWIpREOH68d_AxJrZCw4Jb1P5lDm38xwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TSANov292020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 78%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the percent of last year for the seven day average.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is as of Nov 29th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe seven day average is down 61% from last year (39% of last year).\u0026nbsp; (Dashed line)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere has been a slow increase from the bottom, and appears to have increased for the Thanksgiving week holiday.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-lUcTHi1M4fo\/X8O7XiACYAI\/AAAAAAAA3N4\/OlBnEVpHZyImlab_OsFD69HfAQ3D-d5PwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1076\/DinersNov282020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Move Box Office\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-lUcTHi1M4fo\/X8O7XiACYAI\/AAAAAAAA3N4\/OlBnEVpHZyImlab_OsFD69HfAQ3D-d5PwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/DinersNov282020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is updated through November 28, 2020.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is \"a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year.\"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that this data is for \"\u003Cb\u003Eonly the restaurants that have chosen to reopen\u003C\/b\u003E in a given market\".  \u003Cb\u003ESince some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that dining is generally lower in the northern states - Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York - and only down slightly in the southern states.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HIXTuctYzYo\/X8O2T0LoytI\/AAAAAAAA3NY\/A56zKvSq4i8OShbIjB0LCj_MbD9QnZCPwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s888\/MovieNov282020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Move Box Office\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-HIXTuctYzYo\/X8O2T0LoytI\/AAAAAAAA3NY\/A56zKvSq4i8OShbIjB0LCj_MbD9QnZCPwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/MovieNov282020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.\u0026nbsp; Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 26th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMovie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $300 million per week during the Thanksgiving blockbuster period).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESome movie theaters have reopened (probably with limited seating).\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-M_zMStaRWw8\/X8E5YJ3NiZI\/AAAAAAAA3Mw\/RC7bn7bQnFMLmqEuJSxtq94AOJyDKx7cQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1035\/HotelNov272020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Hotel Occupancy Rate\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-M_zMStaRWw8\/X8E5YJ3NiZI\/AAAAAAAA3Mw\/RC7bn7bQnFMLmqEuJSxtq94AOJyDKx7cQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/HotelNov272020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the \u003Cb\u003Efour week average\u003C\/b\u003E. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - prior to 2020).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is through November 21st. Hotel occupancy is currently down 32.6% year-over-year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENotes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate, we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement.  This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Ctable align=\"center\" border=\"2\" cellpadding=\"4\" style=\"width: 420px;\"\u003E\u003Ctbody\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Cth\u003EWeek Ending\u003C\/th\u003E\u003Cth\u003EYoY Change, Occupancy Rate\u003C\/th\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9\/19\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-31.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E9\/26\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-31.5%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/3\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-29.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/10\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-29.2%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/17\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-30.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/24\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-31.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E10\/31\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-29.0%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11\/7\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-35.9%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E  \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11\/14\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-32.7%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E    \u003Ctr\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E11\/21\u003C\/td\u003E\u003Ctd align=\"center\"\u003E-32.6%\u003C\/td\u003E\u003C\/tr\u003E\u003C\/tbody\u003E\u003C\/table\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis suggests no improvement over the last 10 weeks.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-9KFNgJMteu8\/X8O3LQIQQcI\/AAAAAAAA3Ng\/bvHZNRHttIog5-jbcKmWsrcPabxnJ0GbgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s909\/GasolineNov292020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"gasoline Consumption\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-9KFNgJMteu8\/X8O3LQIQQcI\/AAAAAAAA3Ng\/bvHZNRHttIog5-jbcKmWsrcPabxnJ0GbgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/GasolineNov292020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of .\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAt one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs of November 20th, gasoline supplied was off about 11.7% YoY (about 88.3% of last year).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote: People driving instead of flying might have boosted gasoline consumption over the summer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.apple.com\/covid19\/mobility\"\u003EApple mobility\u003C\/a\u003E. From Apple: \"This data is generated by counting \u003Cb\u003Ethe number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions\u003C\/b\u003E in select countries\/regions, sub-regions, and cities.\"  This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.dallasfed.org\/research\/mei.aspx\"\u003EMobility and Engagement Index\u003C\/a\u003E.  However the index is set \"relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February\", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-uBOTCLNQz6M\/X8O5FJAdDtI\/AAAAAAAA3Nw\/UHZlEHSeBVMJe2Mu-4gsJYgFOS7Q_HTegCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1073\/TransitNov282020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Apple Mobility Data\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-uBOTCLNQz6M\/X8O5FJAdDtI\/AAAAAAAA3Nw\/UHZlEHSeBVMJe2Mu-4gsJYgFOS7Q_HTegCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TransitNov282020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis data is through November 28th for the United States and several selected cities.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020.   This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted.   People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAccording to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 44% of the January level.  It is at 31% in Chicago, and 49% in Houston - and declining recently.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- New York City Subway Usage -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is some interesting data on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ENew York subway usage\u003C\/a\u003E (HT BR).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-vCJ9MdBX9lo\/X8O3xkN-XzI\/AAAAAAAA3No\/whrj01zx2xkM_NJq0tQLJTV15UESHP98QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s624\/NYCTransitNov292020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"New York City Subway Usage\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-vCJ9MdBX9lo\/X8O3xkN-XzI\/AAAAAAAA3No\/whrj01zx2xkM_NJq0tQLJTV15UESHP98QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/NYCTransitNov292020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThis graph is from \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/toddwschneider.com\/dashboards\/nyc-subway-turnstiles\/\"\u003ETodd W Schneider\u003C\/a\u003E.  This is daily data for this year.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is through Friday, November 27th.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESchneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EHe notes: \"Data updates weekly from the MTA’s \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/web.mta.info\/developers\/turnstile.html\"\u003Epublic turnstile data\u003C\/a\u003E, usually on Saturday mornings\".\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3219765727304084752\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3219765727304084752","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3219765727304084752"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3219765727304084752"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for_30.html","title":"Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-PxdoH4mLk0k\/X8TzNy7pp9I\/AAAAAAAA3OQ\/scWIpREOH68d_AxJrZCw4Jb1P5lDm38xwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/TSANov292020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3555335930776552733"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-29T21:10:00.001-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-29T21:10:00.308-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Sunday Night Futures"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Weekend:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/schedule-for-week-of-november-29-2020.html\"\u003ESchedule for Week of November 29, 2020\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMonday:\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 9:45 AM ET, \u003Cb\u003EChicago Purchasing Managers Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:00 AM, \u003Cb\u003EPending Home Sales Index\u003C\/b\u003E for October.  The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in the index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E• At 10:30 AM, \u003Cb\u003EDallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for November.  This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom CNBC: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pre-markets\/\"\u003EPre-Market Data\u003C\/a\u003E and \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets\/stocks\/futures\/\"\u003EBloomberg futures\u003C\/a\u003E S\u0026amp;P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOil prices were up over the last week with \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/energy\/\"\u003EWTI futures\u003C\/a\u003E at $45.10 per barrel and Brent at $47.60 barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $58, and Brent was at $65 - so WTI oil prices are down about 25% year-over-year. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gasbuddy.com\/Charts\"\u003EHere is a graph\u003C\/a\u003E from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.  Nationally prices are at $2.10 per gallon.  A year ago prices were at $2.60 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.50 per gallon year-over-year."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/3555335930776552733\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=3555335930776552733","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3555335930776552733"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/3555335930776552733"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/sunday-night-futures_29.html","title":"Sunday Night Futures"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-371257536949461517"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-29T19:06:00.005-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-29T19:06:58.854-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 29 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: The data will be unusual over the holiday weekend.  Stay Safe!!!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,011,883 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 131,441 positive tests.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlmost 36,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TjMDAFn-7rI\/X8Q3VDxc2II\/AAAAAAAA3OA\/zh0WKkRDbzgTwTDs9bEht3mE-PAvtrq2wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1161\/COVIDNov292020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day and Percent Positive\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TjMDAFn-7rI\/X8Q3VDxc2II\/AAAAAAAA3OA\/zh0WKkRDbzgTwTDs9bEht3mE-PAvtrq2wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov292020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 13.0% (red line is 7 day average).\u0026nbsp; The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-V-a8iihhGr8\/X8Q3XZ4c-TI\/AAAAAAAA3OE\/Ld5G2eDGmVotnrgeoUIELh9Y514k4Zv2ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1186\/COVIDCasesNov292020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-V-a8iihhGr8\/X8Q3XZ4c-TI\/AAAAAAAA3OE\/Ld5G2eDGmVotnrgeoUIELh9Y514k4Zv2ACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov292020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• Record Hospitalizations."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/371257536949461517\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=371257536949461517","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/371257536949461517"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/371257536949461517"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-29-covid-19-test-results.html","title":"November 29 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TjMDAFn-7rI\/X8Q3VDxc2II\/AAAAAAAA3OA\/zh0WKkRDbzgTwTDs9bEht3mE-PAvtrq2wCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov292020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-2975548508484107826"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-29T11:57:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-29T11:57:45.973-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: \"Taking Off in Earnest\""},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html\"\u003ECase-Shiller house price indexes for September\u003C\/a\u003E were released last week.   Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EFrom Matthew Speakman at Zillow: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.zillow.com\/research\/2020-september-case-shiller-results-forecast-28406\/\"\u003ESeptember Case-Shiller Results \u0026amp; October Forecast: Taking Off in Earnest\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EThe weather cooled, but the pace of home price appreciation remained red hot into September.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 7% year-over-year in September. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 6.2% and 6.6% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was faster in August than in July in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10- and 20-city indices were each up by more than 1% (1.2% and 1.3%, respectively), and the national index was up 1.4% from August.\u003Cbr \/\u003E   ...\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith mortgage rates staying near their lowest levels ever, buyers remain eager to grab the relatively few homes that are listed on the market, and do so quickly – homes went under contract two weeks faster in September than they did a year earlier. Home prices are normally sticky, meaning that they often take a while to respond to market shifts. These elevated levels of market competition have been placing upward pressure on prices for months, but home prices have just recently began to take off in earnest. Some measures show home prices now growing at a faster pace than they ever have. While the worsening spread of COVID-19, and the economic uncertainty that accompanies it, do pose some potential risks to the booming housing market, it appears unlikely that this remarkable growth in home prices will abate in the coming months.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003EAnnual growth in [October] as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three main indices. S\u0026amp;P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the October S\u0026amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, December 29.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: x-small;\"\u003Eemphasis added\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003EThe Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller\u0026nbsp;National index to be at \u003Cb\u003E7.7% in October\u003C\/b\u003E, up from 7.0% in September. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 7.3% YoY in October from 6.6% in September, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 6.8% YoY compared to 6.2% YoY in September."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/2975548508484107826\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=2975548508484107826","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2975548508484107826"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/2975548508484107826"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/zillow-case-shiller-house-price.html","title":"Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: \"Taking Off in Earnest\""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-1686256183812503750"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-28T19:07:00.004-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-28T19:07:37.227-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"November 28 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Note: The data will be unusual over the holiday weekend.  Stay Safe!!!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day.   Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 1,419,105 test results reported over the last 24 hours.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 152,098 positive tests.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAlmost 35,000 US deaths have been reported so far in November.  See the graph on \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/data\/charts\/us-daily-deaths\"\u003EUS Daily Deaths here\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-IUBjHpQrmR4\/X8LlvRnExRI\/AAAAAAAA3NI\/KluQV4-8vNguRlPCGOdYw0kiLao0NLr9QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1163\/COVIDNov282020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Tests per Day and Percent Positive\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-IUBjHpQrmR4\/X8LlvRnExRI\/AAAAAAAA3NI\/KluQV4-8vNguRlPCGOdYw0kiLao0NLr9QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDNov282020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cb\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: 85%;\"\u003EClick on graph for larger image.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis data is from the \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/covidtracking.com\/\"\u003ECOVID Tracking Project\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe percent positive over the last 24 hours was 10.7% (red line is 7 day average).\u0026nbsp; The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by the sum of negative and positive results (I don't include pending).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd check out \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org\/\"\u003ECOVID Exit Strategy\u003C\/a\u003E to see how each state is doing.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-MbDPJB_mtls\/X8LlxV5SHeI\/AAAAAAAA3NM\/QlGNvULBpGYUqFlZYWvnrmAJhewEA9RKACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1189\/COVIDCasesNov282020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"COVID-19 Positive Tests per Day\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-MbDPJB_mtls\/X8LlxV5SHeI\/AAAAAAAA3NM\/QlGNvULBpGYUqFlZYWvnrmAJhewEA9RKACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/COVIDCasesNov282020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EThe second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe dashed line is the previous hospitalization maximum.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ENote that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed, so the hospitalizations was higher relative to the 7-day average of positive tests in July.\u003Cbr \/\u003E  \u003Cbr \/\u003E• Record Hospitalizations."},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/1686256183812503750\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=1686256183812503750","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1686256183812503750"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/1686256183812503750"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/november-28-covid-19-test-results.html","title":"November 28 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Hospitalizations"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-IUBjHpQrmR4\/X8LlvRnExRI\/AAAAAAAA3NI\/KluQV4-8vNguRlPCGOdYw0kiLao0NLr9QCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/COVIDNov282020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-4015975383948719081"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-28T08:23:00.000-05:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-28T08:23:18.599-05:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Schedule for Week of November 29, 2020"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOther key indicators include the November ISM manufacturing and services indexes, November auto sales, and the October trade deficit.\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EOn Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell will provide testimony on the \"Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act\".\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Monday, Nov 30th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E9:45 AM: \u003Cb\u003EChicago Purchasing Managers Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EPending Home Sales Index\u003C\/b\u003E for October.  The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in the index.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EDallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity\u003C\/b\u003E for November.  This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Tuesday, Dec 1st -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-GH2n5Mo1Dhc\/X6Af7mLOK-I\/AAAAAAAA22k\/cbDnr4_6BS4Ul0C8NP_M68sN9tDebIfcwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1029\/ISMOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"ISM PMI\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-GH2n5Mo1Dhc\/X6Af7mLOK-I\/AAAAAAAA22k\/cbDnr4_6BS4Ul0C8NP_M68sN9tDebIfcwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/ISMOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EISM Manufacturing Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 57.5%, down from 59.3%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHere is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe PMI was at 59.3% in October, the employment index was at 53.2%, and the new orders index was at 67.9%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003EConstruction Spending\u003C\/b\u003E for October.\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003ETestimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E, \u003Ci\u003ECoronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act\u003C\/i\u003E, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3j0HPfZPlpE\/X6LVdGFvhMI\/AAAAAAAA24k\/dPlGBIx5qSgsDYGoJeruxHSJ-THhuBtkACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1055\/VSOCT2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Vehicle Sales\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-3j0HPfZPlpE\/X6LVdGFvhMI\/AAAAAAAA24k\/dPlGBIx5qSgsDYGoJeruxHSJ-THhuBtkACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/VSOCT2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" width=\"300\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EAll day: \u003Cb\u003ELight vehicle sales\u003C\/b\u003E for November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is for 16.2 million SAAR in November, unchanged from the BEA estimate of 16.2 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Wednesday, Dec 2nd  -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the \u003Cb\u003Emortgage purchase applications index\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:15 AM: The \u003Cb\u003EADP Employment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).\u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 420,000 jobs added, up from 365,000 in October.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: \u003Cb\u003ETestimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u003C\/b\u003E, \u003Ci\u003ECoronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act\u003C\/i\u003E, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2:00 PM: the \u003Cb\u003EFederal Reserve Beige Book\u003C\/b\u003E, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Thursday, Dec 3rd -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E8:30 AM: The \u003Cb\u003Einitial weekly unemployment claims\u003C\/b\u003E report will be released.  The consensus is for 825,000 initial claims, up from 778,000 last week.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E10:00 AM: the \u003Cb\u003EISM Services Index\u003C\/b\u003E for November.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ccenter\u003E\u003Cb\u003E----- Friday, Dec 4th -----\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/center\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-i4Ds087Hz_I\/X6VSPc0vqQI\/AAAAAAAA26Q\/tLDjtK1f2BYReu1J-M0cH-8IxrIm1PPOACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1110\/EmployRecessionOct2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-i4Ds087Hz_I\/X6VSPc0vqQI\/AAAAAAAA26Q\/tLDjtK1f2BYReu1J-M0cH-8IxrIm1PPOACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/EmployRecessionOct2020.PNG\" style=\"border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003EEmployment Report\u003C\/b\u003E for November. \u0026nbsp; The consensus is for 500 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.7%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThere were 638 thousand jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 6.9%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-mWRjjLEHTgU\/X6KuSsxl37I\/AAAAAAAA24U\/kZNrqiKvyKcwwY_QYEuMT0CJ2WryOt7pACLcBGAsYHQ\/s1008\/TradeDeficitSept2020.PNG\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"U.S. Trade Deficit\" border=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-mWRjjLEHTgU\/X6KuSsxl37I\/AAAAAAAA24U\/kZNrqiKvyKcwwY_QYEuMT0CJ2WryOt7pACLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/TradeDeficitSept2020.PNG\" style=\"border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E8:30 AM: \u003Cb\u003ETrade Balance report\u003C\/b\u003E for October from the Census Bureau. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThis graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report.  The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe consensus is the trade deficit to be $64.7 billion.\u0026nbsp; The U.S. trade deficit was at $63.9 billion in September.\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/feeds\/4015975383948719081\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=10004977\u0026postID=4015975383948719081","title":"0 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4015975383948719081"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/10004977\/posts\/default\/4015975383948719081"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"https:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2020\/11\/schedule-for-week-of-november-29-2020.html","title":"Schedule for Week of November 29, 2020"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Calculated Risk"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/08664541332908374389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-GH2n5Mo1Dhc\/X6Af7mLOK-I\/AAAAAAAA22k\/cbDnr4_6BS4Ul0C8NP_M68sN9tDebIfcwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/ISMOct2020.PNG","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"0"}}]}});