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Friday, July 30, 2021

Initial Q3 GDP Forecasts: 6% to 9% Range

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2021 01:28:00 PM

From BofA:

We maintain our 2H forecast but adjust the composition, taking up inventories but taking down consumption (reflecting virus headwinds) and residential investment. (7.0% in Q3 qoq ar and 6.0% in Q4) [July 30 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
Following today’s data and yesterday’s GDP report, we are launching our Q3 GDP tracking estimate at +9.0% (qoq ar), 0.5pp above our previous forecast, and are also boosting our Q4 forecast by 0.5pp to +5.5%. [July 30 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.2% for 2021:Q3. [July 30 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 6.1 percent on July 30. [July 30 estimate]