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Friday, June 11, 2021

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 9.5%

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2021 11:22:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

2Q GDP tracking has fallen to 9.5% qoq saar from 11% as we incorporate our forecast for retail sales. 1Q GDP is also tracking slightly lower at 6.2% following trade data this week. [June 11 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +9.5% (qoq ar). [June 9 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.2% for 2021:Q2 and 5.3% for 2021:Q3. [June 11 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 9.3 percent on June 9, down from 9.4 percent on June 8. [June 9 estimate]