Thursday, May 13, 2021

Existing Home Inventory Might Have Bottomed

by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2021 04:04:00 PM

I'm gathering existing home data for many local markets, and I'm watching inventory very closely this year.

As I noted in Some thoughts on Housing Inventory

The key for housing in 2021 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in house prices. However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation.
The table below shows some early data for April.

Although inventory in these areas is down about 56% year-over-year, inventory is up month-to-month in most areas, and up 3.1% in total compared to March.

It is still early, but existing home inventory might have bottomed in March.

Existing Home Inventory
 Apr-21Mar-21Apr-20YoYMoM
Atlanta6,9647,41819,697-64.6%-6.1%
Boston3,7883,2013,4679.3%18.3%
Colorado7,8726,73223,106-65.9%16.9%
Denver2,5941,9216,855-62.2%35.0%
Houston22,79422,60239,906-42.9%0.8%
Las Vegas2,3462,3697,815-70.0%-1.0%
Maryland7,1676,20218,563-61.4%15.6%
New Hampshire1,8521,5764,295-56.9%17.5%
North Texas8,0848,12323,046-64.9%-0.5%
Portland2,2221,9434,757-53.3%14.4%
Sacramento1,0069181,823-44.8%9.6%
South Carolina12,01912,75427,024-55.5%-5.8%
Total176,11473,838173,499-56.1%3.1%
1excluding Denver (included in Colorado)