Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Gathering Speed", 10.3% YoY in December

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2021 04:18:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for November were released today. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: November Case-Shiller Results & December Forecast: Gathering Speed

Growth in home prices continued to climb in November, gathering speed before the end of the year and setting the stage for a full out sprint in 2021.
...
Buoyed by record-low mortgage rates, which continued to plumb new depths back in November, a wave of eager would-be homebuyers poured into the market, further stoking the competition for homes that has been red-hot since the late spring. Homes flew off the market as a result and prices shot upward at their fastest pace in years. Even as the pandemic accelerated its rapid spread across the country, this fervent market competition has shown few, if any, signs of cooling and is unlikely in the near future. Combined, annual growth in home prices should continue its sharp upward trajectory in the months to come.

Monthly growth in December as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to slow slightly from [November] in all three main indices, while annual growth is expected to accelerate across the board. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, February 23.
emphasis added
Zillow forecast for Case-ShillerThe Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 10.3% in December, up from 9.5% in November.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 9.8% YoY in December from 8.9% in November, and for the 10-City index to increase to be up 9.5% YoY compared to 8.4% YoY in November.