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Thursday, January 14, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 965,000

by Calculated Risk on 1/14/2021 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending January 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 965,000, an increase of 181,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 787,000 to 784,000. The 4-week moving average was 834,250, an increase of 18,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,750 from 818,750 to 816,000.
emphasis added
This does not include the 284,470 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 161,159 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 834,250.

The previous week was revised down.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Regular state continued claims increased to 5,271,000 (SA) from 5,072,000 (SA) the previous week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 7,442,888 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 8,383,387 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. 

An additional 4,166,261 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that decreased from 4,491,413 the previous week.