Friday, January 22, 2021

Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2021 11:37:00 AM

The BEA will release the preliminary estimate for Q4 GDP this coming Thursday, January 28th. The consensus estimate is for a 4.3% annualized increase in GDP.

From Merrrill Lynch:

We expect the first estimate of 4Q GDP growth to come in at a robust 4.5% qoq saar, supported by continued strength in residential and equipment investment. Consumption likely slowed but remained positive. [Jan 22 estimate] emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.0% (qoq ar). [Jan 21 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2020:Q4 and 6.6% for 2021:Q1. [Jan 22 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 7.5 percent on January 21, up from 7.4 percent on January 15. [Jan 21 estimate]