Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 9.5% year-over-year in November

by Calculated Risk on 1/26/2021 09:12:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3 month average of September, October and November prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Climbed to 9.5% in November

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 9.5% annual gain in November, up from 8.4% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 8.8%, up from 7.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 9.1% year-over-year gain, up from 8.0% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in November. Phoenix led the way with a 13.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.7% increase and San Diego with a 12.3% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2020 versus the year ending October 2020.
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The U.S. National Index posted a 1.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.2% and 1.1% respectively, before seasonal adjustment in November. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4%. In November, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before and after seasonal adjustment.

“The trend of accelerating home prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its sixth month with November’s emphatic report,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index gained 9.5% relative to its level a year ago, accelerating from October’s 8.4% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 8.8% and 9.1%, respectively) also rose more rapidly in November than they had done in October. The housing market’s strength was once again broadly-based: all 19 cities for which we have November data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in November than they had gained in the 12 months ended in October.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 1.4% in November (SA) from October.

The Composite 20 index is up 1.4% (SA) in November.

The National index is 26% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.4% (SA) in November.  The National index is up 70% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 8.8% compared to November 2019.  The Composite 20 SA is up 9.1% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 9.5% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 19 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

Price increases were above expectations.  I'll have more later.