Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Fed's Beige Book: "Slight to modest" Growth in Economic Activity

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2020 02:15:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis based on information collected on or before October 9, 2020."

Economic activity continued to increase across all Districts, with the pace of growth characterized as slight to modest in most Districts. Changes in activity varied greatly by sector. Manufacturing activity generally increased at a moderate pace. Residential housing markets continued to experience steady demand for new and existing homes, with activity constrained by low inventories. Banking contacts also cited increased demand for mortgages as the key driver of overall loan demand. Conversely, commercial real estate conditions continued to deteriorate in many Districts, with the exception being warehouse and industrial space where construction and leasing activity remained steady. Consumer spending growth remained positive, but some Districts reported a leveling off of retail sales and a slight uptick in tourism activity. Demand for autos remained steady, but low inventories have constrained sales to varying degrees. Reports on agriculture conditions were mixed, as some Districts are experiencing drought conditions. Districts characterized the outlooks of contacts as generally optimistic or positive, but with a considerable degree of uncertainty. Restaurateurs in many Districts expressed concern that cooler weather would slow sales, as they have relied on outdoor dining. Banking contacts in many Districts expressed concern that delinquency rates may rise in coming months, citing various reasons; however, delinquency rates have remained stable.
Employment increased in almost all Districts, though growth remained slow. Employment gains were reported most consistently for manufacturing firms, although firms continued to report new furloughs and layoffs. Most Districts continued reporting tight labor markets, attributing it to workers' health and childcare concerns, with many firms consequently offering increased schedule flexibility; a few Districts, however, noted some firms were finding it easier to hire workers. Wages increased slightly in most Districts, often tied to firms' difficulty finding workers, especially for low-wage or high-demand jobs. Some firms reported returning wages (and raises) to normal levels, but many reported more stable wages.
emphasis added
CR Note: This suggests economic growth has slowed recently.