Thursday, July 02, 2020

June Employment Report: 4.8 Million Jobs Added, 11.1% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2020 08:41:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In June, employment in leisure and hospitality rose sharply. Notable job gains also occurred in retail trade, education and health services, other services, manufacturing, and professional and business services.
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The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 100,000, from -20.7 million to -20.8 million, and the change for May was revised up by 190,000, from +2.5 million to +2.7 million. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined was 90,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added
Year-over-year change employmentClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In June, the year-over-year change was -12.957 million jobs.

Total payrolls increased by 4.8 million in June.

Payrolls for April and May were revised up 90 thousand combined.

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 61.5% in June. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 54.6% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in June to 11.1%.

This was well above consensus expectations of 3,070,000 jobs added, and April and May were revised up by 90,000 combined.

I'll have much more later …