Thursday, June 04, 2020

Goldman May Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2020 06:23:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill, et. al.:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls declined by 7.25 million in May … Downward revisions to April payrolls are also likely, in our view.
...
We estimate the unemployment rate rose from 14.7% to 21.5%.

In interpreting tomorrow’s report, we will again pay special attention to the number and share of workers on furlough or temporary layoff.
emphasis added