Friday, December 13, 2019

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.0%

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2019 12:18:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch

The retail sales data nudged 3Q and 4Q GDP tracking a tenth lower to 2.1% and 1.5% qoq saar. [Dec 13 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
Following today’s data, we lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.8% (qoq ar). [Dec 13 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.7% for 2019:Q4 and 0.8% for 2020:Q1. [Dec 13 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.0 percent on December 13, unchanged from December 6. [Dec 13 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.7% and 2.0% annualized in Q4.