Thursday, November 21, 2019

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.46 million in October

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2019 10:13:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Climb 1.9% in October

Existing-home sales rose in October, a slight recovery from the declines seen in September, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The four major U.S. regions were split last month, with the Midwest and the South seeing growth, and the Northeast and the West both reporting a drop in sales.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.9% from September to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in October. Despite lingering regional variances, overall sales are up 4.6% from a year ago (5.22 million in October 2018).
...
Total housing inventory at the end of October sat at 1.77 million units, down approximately 2.7% from September and 4.3% from one year ago (1.85 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.1 months in September and from the 4.3-month figure recorded in October 2018.
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in October (5.46 million SAAR) were up 1.9% from last month, and were 4.6% above the October 2018 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home Inventory According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.77 million in October from 1.82 million in September.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was down 4.3% year-over-year in October compared to October 2018.

Months of supply decreased to 3.9 months in October.

This was close to the consensus forecast.  For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low. I'll have more later …