Friday, October 18, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2%

by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2019 11:29:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

Weak inventories data edged down 3Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 1.5% qoq saar. [Oct 18 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2019:Q3 and 1.1% for 2019:Q4. [Oct 18 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on October 17, unchanged from October 16. [Oct 17 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be under 2.0% annualized in Q3.