Friday, September 20, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.0%

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2019 11:19:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect 2Q GDP to be revised slightly higher to 2.1% qoq saar in the final release. 3Q GDP tracking remains at 2.0% qoq saar. [Sept 20 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
[W]e left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.2% (qoq ar). [Sept 19 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2019:Q3 and 2.0% for 2019:Q4. [Sept 20 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent September 18, up from 1.8 percent on September 13. [Sept 18 estimate]
CR Note: The GDP estimates increased this week mostly due to better than expected housing starts and industrial production numbers. These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2.0% annualized in Q3.