Thursday, September 19, 2019

Philly Fed Manufacturing shows Continued Expansion in September, At Slower Pace

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2019 09:39:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: August 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to results from the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed: The indexes for general activity and new orders fell, while the indexes for shipments and employment increased. The survey’s price indexes increased notably this month. The survey’s future general activity index moderated but continues to suggest growth over the next six months.

The diffusion index for current general activity fell 5 points this month to 12.0.
emphasis added
This was at the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through September), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through August) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through August (right axis).

These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will probably be weak again in September.