Friday, April 19, 2019

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 4/19/2019 11:57:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

Despite various distortions to begin 2019 (Government shutdown, inclement weather), we expect real GDP growth in the first quarter to be a solid 2.4% qoq saar, up slightly from 4Q 2018. [April 19 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2019:Q1 and 1.9% for 2019:Q2. [Apr 19 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.8 percent on April 19, unchanged from April 18 after rounding. After this morning’s new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth inched down from 4.0 percent to 3.5 percent. [Apr 19 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q1.