Friday, March 22, 2019

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 1%

by Calculated Risk on 3/22/2019 03:27:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs:

We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by three tenths to +0.7% (qoq ar). However ... we lowered our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q4 by two tenths to +2.1%. [March 22 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2019:Q1 and 1.7% for 2019:Q2. [Mar 22 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 1.2 percent on March 22, up from 0.4 percent on March 13. [Mar 13 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 1% annualized in Q1.